证 券 研 究 报 告 【宏观快评】 宏观研究 外资如何看待 2026 中国经济？ ❖ 前言：本文关注外资对 2026 年中国经济的观点，整体而言，外资认为中国仍 处于新旧动能转换、供需再平衡的过程中，在此背景下，预计 2026 年经济增 速中枢在 4.5%附近（回溯来看外资预测普遍偏低估），通胀温和回升，CPI 转 正，PPI 降幅收窄。 ❖ （一）经济增长：中枢 4.5%左右 一致预期：多数机构认为，2026 年中国实际 GDP 增速 4.5%左右（小摩、德 银、瑞银、OECD、IMF），详见正文。 观点分歧：大摩的预期相对乐观（4.8%），一方面对出口的判断更为积极，预 计 2026 年净出口对 GDP 的贡献在 1.3 个百分点（瑞银为 0.7 个百分点），另一 方面，预计政府消费将有所提速。美银的预期同样乐观（4.7%），主要支撑在 投资，预计增速回升至 3.5%，结构上，基建在 5000 亿新型政策性金融工具+ 政府债扩容背景下维持高增，制造业低个位数增长，地产投资降幅收窄。巴克 莱的预测相对谨慎（4%），认为地产下行与低价风险仍将拖累经济表现。 ❖ （二）通胀：CPI 转正，PPI 降幅收窄 一 ...

1、SpaceX回应关于爆炸事件危及航班安全的报道：误导公众 SpaceX发文称："《华尔街日报》又炮制了一篇误导性报道。很明显，记者们是被别有用心的反对 者灌输了片面且带有误导性的信息。往轻了说，这表明报道方完全不了解安全管理人员用于空域管理的 成熟工具 —— 这些工具标准明确、依托科学原理设计，且在保障公共安全方面成效显著。无论如何， 这种基于匿名信源的猜测及非科学性分析炮制出的虚假叙事，都是在误导公众。需要明确的是，在 星 舰的每次飞行测试中，公共安全始终是 SpaceX 的首要考量。没有任何飞行器曾陷入风险，所有产生飞 行器残骸的事件，其影响范围均被控制在由美国太空军规划、美国联邦航空管理局负责执行的预先协调 管控区域内。这些危险区域的划定秉持保守原则，覆盖范围足够宽泛，相关空域管制人员也已根据残骸 实际落点，在更大范围的预先协调危险区域内，对所有飞行器实施了实时的合理改道引导。SpaceX 致 力于在发射和返回过程中负责任地使用空域，将公共安全置于优先地位，保障地面、海上及空中人员的 安全。"此前，该媒体报道称美国联邦航空管理局文件显示，1月16日SpaceX"星舰"爆炸事件对空中航班 造成的危险， ...

债券研究 证券研究报 告 【债券周报】 年末地产销售小幅探涨 ——每周高频跟踪 20251220 （1）动力煤：煤价跌幅继续扩大。前期运力持续释放，煤炭产业链各环节 库存持续走高，叠加大型煤企外购价格大幅下调，引发中小煤矿、贸易商跟 风降价出货，煤炭价格持续下降。 （2）螺纹钢：螺纹钢价格止跌回涨。主要钢材品种去库节奏维持偏快，建 材、螺纹表观需求小幅回升。 （3）沥青：开工率继续回落。沥青装置开工率环比-0.2pct 至 27.6%，同比- 0.9%。施工节奏继续放缓。 2、地产：（1）新房成交成交止跌回涨。12 月 12 日-12 月 18 日，30 城新房成 交面积环比+15.4%，同比-30%，降幅收窄。年末新房销售酝酿冲刺，本周回 升斜率仍不及同期季节性。（2）二手房成交季节性上行。二手房成交面积环 比+5.3%，同比-25%，较前周开始改善，总体符合季节性、与 2023 年节奏相 近。 消费相关：12 月中上旬乘用车零售同比-24% 1、汽车：12 月 1-14 日，全国乘用车市场零售 76.4 万辆，同比-24%，环比 +2%。 2、原油：价格继续下跌。市场预期俄乌局势或有缓和、俄原油供应可能放 ...

航天板块也受海外消息刺激走强，华体科技、神剑股份、西部材料2连板，大连重工、腾达科技、国机精工、大元泵业等先后涨停，陕西华达、 再升科技、广联航空、航天智装等集体大涨； 无人驾驶板块再度反复，浙江世宝4连板，威帝股份2连板，浙江美大、路畅科技、索菱股份等先后涨停，豪恩汽电、雷尔伟、经纬恒润、云意电 气等均涨超10%； 海南板块午后大幅反弹，海汽集团、海南发展、海南海药、海南瑞泽、中国中免（炸）先后涨停，康芝药业、神农种业、海峡股份、海南机场等 集体大涨； 此外，光纤概念、消费、福建等均有局部大涨表现，存储、CPO、福建高标股等跌幅居前。 1、行情 指数集体小幅收涨，市场迎来力度较弱的普涨行情。 题材方面，可控核聚变大幅高开，王子新材一字板，百利电气、中国一重、四创电子、雪人集团、宏微科技（20CM）等纷纷涨停，哈焊华通、 大西洋、国机重装、海陆重工、安泰高科等均高开或冲高； 截至收盘，沪指、深成指、创业板指分别收涨0.36%、0.66%、0.49%，市场超4400股上涨，仅900余股下跌。 2、核聚变 当地时间12月18日，特朗普媒体科技集团与美国核聚变能源企业TAE技术公司18日联合发布公告，宣布两家企业已 ...

人民财讯12月19日电，中信建设证券首席经济学家、研究发展部联席负责人黄文涛在《财经》年会 2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛上表示，当前中国消费呈现一定低迷态势，其原因既涉及总 量因素，也包含结构性问题。他认为，随着人均可支配收入的提高及相关政策持续加码，这些均属于发 展过程中的阶段性挑战，未来有望通过政策进一步发力推动消费走出低谷，从而为宏观经济稳定贡献更 多增量。 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 责任编辑：刘万里 SF014 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 人民财讯12月19日电，中信建设证券首席经济学家、研究发展部联席负责人黄文涛在《财经》年会 2026：预测与战略暨2025全球财富管理论坛上表示，当前中国消费呈现一定低迷态势，其原因既涉及总 量因素，也包含结构性问题。他认为，随着人均可支配收入的提高及相关政策持续加码，这些均属于发 展过程中的阶段性挑战，未来有望通过政策进一步发力推动消费走出低谷，从而为宏观经济稳定贡献更 多增量。 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20251219 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：美国 11 月 CPI 弱于预期，国内股市结构分化 海外方面，美国 11 月 CPI、核心 CPI 同比分别降至 2.7%、2.6%，远低于市场预期 31%、 3.0%，并创 2021 年以来新低，但数据可信度存疑，因政府停摆，10 月价格数据大面积缺失， 住房分项异常"停滞"，市场质疑官方隐含假设租金为零，可能低估通胀，需等待后续数据 验证。市场反映积极，CME 利率期货定价美联储明年 3 月、7 月再降息 1 次，美股齐涨，美 元指数收于 98.4，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.12%，金价、铜价震荡走平，油价小幅收涨。欧央 行连续第四次维持利率不变，重申通胀中期回归 2%目标，但未给出明确宽松指引。拉加德 强调政策立场"处于有利位置"，不预设利率路径、保持选项开放，多名官员认为本轮降息 周期或已接近尾声。 国内方面，A 股周四缩量收涨，结构性行情显著，双创板块领跌、红利风格表现占优， 两市超 2800 只个股收涨、成交额回落至 1.68 万亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to experience a "spring market" driven by earnings growth in 2026, supported by policies aimed at reducing competition, advancements in AI infrastructure, and a recovering consumer market [1][2]. Market Short-term Style Shift - Morgan Stanley's China stock strategy team has shifted its outlook to positive for MSCI China and CSI 300 indices since January 9, 2023, predicting that the upward trend may continue until 2026 [2]. - A style shift from growth and momentum sectors to value, defensive, and high-dividend sectors is recommended, likely lasting until the end of this year and early next year [2]. - The MSCI China, CSI 300, and MSCI Hong Kong indices are projected to reach 100 points, 5200 points, and 16000 points respectively by 2026, representing potential increases of approximately 22%, 13.5%, and 17.8% [2]. Earnings Growth as Market Driver - Stable growth in earnings per share (EPS) is identified as the core driver for sustained market growth [3]. - The proportion of companies in the MSCI China index with upward earnings revisions has significantly increased since May [3]. - The current net profit margin of Chinese listed companies (excluding the financial sector) is relatively low in the Asia-Pacific region, but the return on equity (ROE) remains strong [3]. Foreign Investment Trends - Foreign long-term funds have increased their holdings in the Chinese stock market, with a 100 basis point rise in the holdings of global active funds by the end of October [4]. - Four key investment themes for 2026 are identified: "anti-involution," AI, overseas expansion, and consumption, with real estate as a potential theme [4][5]. Sector-Specific Insights - The "anti-involution" theme focuses on sectors with strong growth prospects, such as batteries and photovoltaics, as well as macro-sensitive sectors like steel and cement [5]. - Companies with overseas operations are expected to gain more attention from global investors due to their balanced business models [5]. - The essential consumer sector in MSCI China is currently undervalued, with a price-to-earnings ratio below 20, indicating significant potential for valuation recovery [5]. AI Sector Analysis - The assessment of whether the AI sector is in a bubble depends on valuation levels, with recent corrections observed in semiconductor hardware valuations [6]. - The focus is on energy storage companies within AI infrastructure, which are currently in a recovery phase [6]. - The technology sector's performance in the fourth quarter is crucial for sustaining high expectations, with long-term growth dependent on companies improving quality and profitability [6].

Core Viewpoint - The event emphasizes the importance of rational consumption and its role in economic growth, encouraging students to adopt responsible consumer behaviors and support local brands [5][9][12]. Group 1: Economic Concepts - The session began with a discussion on basic economic concepts, explaining the interaction between consumption and production, the "multiplier effect," and the contribution of consumption as one of the "three drivers" of economic growth [5]. - It highlighted the national strategy of "expanding domestic demand and boosting consumption" and various local policies aimed at promoting consumption, indicating that consumption is a key driver of economic activity and directly impacts people's well-being and urban vitality [5]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior - The speaker encouraged students to establish a consumer mindset that avoids blind following of trends, emphasizes quality over cheapness, and practices frugality while supporting local brands [9]. - The interactive nature of the class enriched students' economic knowledge and guided them towards forming healthy and rational consumption behaviors in their daily lives [12]. Group 3: Educational Impact - The principal of Zhengzhou No. 8 Middle School noted that consumption is not just about meeting needs but also reflects values, connecting individuals with families, society, and the nation [12]. - The session provided new insights and vitality to the financial literacy education and growth of students at Zhengzhou No. 8 Middle School [12].

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work conference indicates that China's economy is expected to grow around 5% in 2025, with a total economic volume reaching approximately 140 trillion yuan, despite facing challenges in the coming year [1][11]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policies - China will continue to implement more proactive fiscal and monetary policies in 2026, maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and debt levels while optimizing fiscal expenditure structures [2][12]. - The total government bond issuance for 2025 is projected to be 11.86 trillion yuan, with a deficit rate of around 4%, which is expected to remain stable in 2026 [2][13]. - Monetary policy will focus on maintaining liquidity and supporting economic growth, with tools including interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments [3][14]. Group 2: Income and Employment - A plan to increase urban and rural residents' income is expected to be implemented in 2026, aiming to enhance the quality of employment and raise the basic pension for residents [5][15]. - The goal is to synchronize income growth with economic growth, ensuring that labor remuneration increases alongside productivity [6][16]. - Employment policies will prioritize stability, focusing on key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers, while promoting training in high-demand industries [7][17]. Group 3: Consumption and Investment - Expanding domestic demand is a top priority for 2026, with a focus on balancing goods and service consumption, particularly in sectors like tourism and elderly care [8][18]. - Investment is expected to stabilize, with an emphasis on infrastructure projects that enhance consumer services and improve living standards [9][20]. - The government aims to stimulate private investment, particularly in high-tech and service sectors, to boost overall economic activity [10][21].

Economic Growth and Stability - Despite increased volatility in economic data in the second half of the year, the annual economic growth target is expected to be met due to a strong first half, with GDP growth of 5.2%[1] - Industrial production growth remains stable, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in November, slightly down from 4.9% in October[12] - Exports have rebounded significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9% in November, up from -1.1% in October, driven by external demand[12] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth decreased from -1.7% to -2.6%, with a monthly decline of 11.5% in November[15] - Manufacturing investment maintained positive growth at 1.9% year-on-year, although monthly growth was negative at -4.5%[16] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 15.9%, with a monthly drop of 30% in November[27] Consumer Spending - Social retail sales growth fell to 1.3% year-on-year in November, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, marking six consecutive months of decline[31] - The retail sales total saw a month-on-month decline of 0.42%, indicating weakened consumer momentum[31] - Major consumer categories, including jewelry and home appliances, experienced significant drops in sales growth, with jewelry sales falling from 37.6% to 8.5% year-on-year[34]