证券研究报告 大炼化周报：长丝价格下跌，产销增加 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年6月15日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 2 ◼ 【国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪】国内重点大炼化项目本周价差为2675元/吨，环比-48元/吨（环比-2%）；国外 重点大炼化项目本周价差为1063元/吨，环比-23元/吨（环比-2%）。 ◼ 【聚 酯 板 块 】本 周POY/FDY/DTY行业均价分别为 6979/7279/8200元/吨， 环比分别-57/-21/+0元/吨， POY/FDY/DTY行业周均利润为96/30/44元/吨，环比分别+8/+31/+46元/吨，POY/FDY/DTY行业库存为 16.5/21.6/28.4天，环比分别+2.7/+0.9/+1.1天，长丝开工率为89.1%，环比-0.6pct。下游方面，本周织机开工 率为61.3%，环比-1.1pct，织造企业原料 ...

[Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 刘奕麟 石化行业分析师 执业编号：S1500524040001 联系电话：13261695353 邮箱：liuyilin@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDASECURITIESCO.，LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 大炼化周报：供需偏弱， 油价上涨并未明显提振炼化产品价格 [Table_ReportDate0] 2025 年 6 月 15 日 本期内容提要： [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 6 月 13 日当周，国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2394.77 元/吨，环比变化-112.93 元/吨（-4.50%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 933.65 元/吨，环比变化- ...

Group 1: Oil and Petrochemical Industry - OPEC+ is continuing to increase production, which may put pressure on oil prices. The report suggests that despite short-term bearish sentiment due to trade wars, the domestic petrochemical industry maintains a cost advantage due to improved cost structures [6][7]. - The report recommends focusing on upstream resource companies like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, as oil prices are expected to recover after hitting seasonal lows in Q2 [6][7]. - The marine oil service industry is projected to maintain stable capital expenditures, with domestic reserves and production continuing to grow. Companies like CNOOC Engineering and Bohai Drilling are highlighted for their low valuations and advanced technology [7]. Group 2: Automotive Industry - Changan Automobile reported a wholesale sales volume of 224,300 units in May 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.47% and a year-on-year increase of 17.65%. The cumulative sales volume for the first five months of 2025 reached 1.1202 million units, up 1.00% year-on-year [8][9]. - The indirect controlling shareholder, China Ordnance Equipment Group, has received approval for a restructuring plan, which is expected to enhance Changan's strategic position and operational efficiency [10][11]. - The report anticipates significant growth in Changan's electric vehicle segment, with a projected increase in sales driven by new model launches and international expansion [9][11]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 139,000 jobs in May 2025, slightly above expectations, but the report notes a downward revision in previous months' data, indicating potential underlying weaknesses in the labor market [12][13]. - The service sector remains the primary contributor to job growth, while the manufacturing sector shows signs of cooling, likely due to declining retail demand [14][15]. - Despite stable unemployment rates, the report highlights rising wage growth, which may complicate the Federal Reserve's decision-making regarding interest rate cuts [15]. Group 4: Macro Economic Outlook - The report expresses optimism for the recovery of the consumer services sector, technology, and cyclical leaders, suggesting a potential reversal in these areas [16][19]. - Global asset performance shows a rebound in stock markets, with commodities like oil and gold also experiencing price increases due to improved trade relations and monetary policy adjustments [16][17]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic indicators, including manufacturing PMI and industrial output, to gauge future economic trends [19].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the petrochemical industry, indicating favorable conditions for investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - Qatar's LNG projects are expected to lead to a loosening of global LNG supply, with international gas prices likely to decline. Qatar's LNG production capacity is projected to reach 142 million tons by the end of 2030, nearly doubling from 77 million tons in 2020 [3][4]. - The report highlights that while global gas demand growth is expected to slow to around 1.5% in 2025, LNG demand in Asia will be significantly suppressed due to high prices, dropping from a growth rate of 17% in 2024 to below 3% [6][14]. - The upstream sector is experiencing rising oil prices, with Brent crude futures closing at $66.47 per barrel, a 4.02% increase week-on-week. The report anticipates a downward trend in oil prices due to a widening supply-demand balance [23][39]. - In the refining sector, the report notes a decline in overseas refined oil crack spreads, while olefin price spreads show mixed trends. The Singapore refining margin has decreased to $12.55 per barrel [53][55]. - The polyester sector is facing a decline in PTA profitability, while polyester filament profitability is on the rise. The report suggests that the overall performance of the polyester industry is average, with potential for improvement as new capacity slows down [53][60]. Summary by Sections LNG Supply and Demand - Qatar's LNG projects, including the Golden Pass LNG and North Field East expansion, are set to boost global LNG supply significantly by 2030 [4][5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a 50% increase in global export capacity by 2030, with an additional 270 billion cubic meters expected [5][6]. Upstream Sector - Brent crude prices have risen, with a notable increase in drilling day rates for self-elevating platforms. The report indicates a potential for oil prices to decline in the medium term, despite current upward trends [23][39]. - The report also notes a decrease in the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., which may impact future production levels [33]. Refining Sector - The report highlights a decrease in refining margins and crack spreads, indicating challenges in profitability for refiners. However, it suggests that domestic refining margins may improve as overseas refineries exit the market [53][55]. Polyester Sector - The report indicates a mixed performance in the polyester sector, with PTA profitability declining while polyester filament profitability is improving. It emphasizes the need to monitor demand changes closely [53][60]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-quality refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Sinopec, as well as companies in the upstream exploration and development sector like CNOOC and CNOOC Engineering [17].

证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Table_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 石油加工行业 [Table_Author] 左前明 能源行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 本期内容提要： [Table_Summary] ➢ 国内外重点炼化项目价差跟踪：截至 6 月 6 日当周，国内重点大炼 化项目价差为 2495.45 元/吨，环比变化+10.43 元/吨（+0.42%）； 国外重点大炼化项目价差为 1048.26 元/吨，环比变化-32.68 元/吨（- 3.02%）。截至 6 月 6 日当周，布伦特原油周均价为 65.17 美元/桶， 环比变化+1.09%。 ➢ 【炼油板块】本周前期，虽然特朗普关税被美国上诉法院叫停，提振市 场风险偏好，但欧佩克+将在即将召开的会议上增加 7 月产量，国际油价 承压下跌。周中后期，欧佩克+7 月增产靴子落地，符合预期，欧盟正制 定对俄罗斯的制裁措施，加上美伊核谈未决，俄乌局势紧张，以及加拿 大野火导致部分原油生产关闭，国际油价震荡上 ...

今天分享的是：中国炼化行业重构：炼化一体化、新能源冲击与2030战略棋局报告 报告共计：25页 《中国炼化行业重构：炼化一体化、新能源冲击与2030战略棋局报告》指出，中国炼化行业正面临产能扩张与能源结构转型的双重驱动，呈现规模化、一 体化与绿色化发展趋势。2025年炼油一次产能将突破9.8亿吨/年，山东裕龙石化、中海石油宁波大榭石化等2024-2025年投产项目聚焦炼化一体化，配套乙 烯及下游化工装置，提升化工原料自给率；2026-2030年规划项目如华锦阿美石化、福建古雷炼化二期等则进一步扩大规模，布局高端化工新材料。 市场格局方面，长三角、东北地区通过产能整合提升区域供应能力，头部企业凭借大型项目抢占高端市场，而中小型地炼面临成本压力与新能源替代冲 击，预计2025年前30%将重组或转型。产品结构上，成品油收率从2023年62%降至2030年50%以下，聚烯烃等化工品向高端化升级，高端聚烯烃自给率有 望从35%提升至60%。 产能扩张与转型 新能源汽车爆发导致成品油需求增速放缓，倒逼炼厂"减油增化"，化工产能释放加剧市场竞争，需平衡炼油与化工业务协同发展。未来行业将以深度炼化 一体化为核心，拓展新能源、 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dongfang Shenghong, is facing significant financial challenges due to high debt levels and poor performance in the petrochemical industry, leading to substantial losses and a decline in the wealth of its founders [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of Q1 2025, Dongfang Shenghong reported total liabilities of 176.5 billion yuan, with interest-bearing debt exceeding 140 billion yuan and a debt-to-asset ratio rising to 82.17% from 81.66% at the end of 2024 [1][11]. - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 137.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.97% year-on-year, and reported a net loss of 2.297 billion yuan, marking a 420.33% decline compared to the previous year [2][7]. - The first quarter of 2025 saw a 17.5% year-on-year decline in revenue to 30.31 billion yuan, although net profit increased by 38.19% to 341 million yuan [2]. Industry Context - The petrochemical industry is undergoing a deep adjustment, with a 20.7% decline in total profits in 2023 and an additional 8.8% drop in 2024, resulting in over 70% of companies facing losses [1][8]. - Despite a slight increase in revenue for the overall oil and chemical industry in 2024, profits fell by 8.8%, indicating a significant decline in industry profitability [8]. Debt and Financial Pressure - Dongfang Shenghong's financial situation is exacerbated by high inventory levels, with a recorded inventory of 22.167 billion yuan as of Q1 2025 and cumulative inventory impairment losses of 3.92 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 [10]. - The company has experienced significant cash outflows for investments, totaling over 100 billion yuan from 2021 to 2024, and has raised approximately 182.3 billion yuan since its listing [10][11]. - Financial expenses increased by 39.49% in 2024, reaching 4.874 billion yuan, further straining profitability [10]. Business Strategy - Dongfang Shenghong has diversified its production capabilities with a total refining capacity of 16 million tons per year and various production routes for olefins, aiming to mitigate risks associated with industry cycles [12].

中国炼化行业重构：炼化一 体化、新能源冲击与2030 战略棋局 参考资料：王钊、王能.中国炼化行业重构：炼化一体化、新能 源冲击与2030战略棋局卓越咨询能源观察 https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/zlifP8LzOhVyTR16POFhLg. 整理推荐：中国化工学会烃资源评价加工与利用专委会田松柏 ENTS 01 05 未来新能源冲击与化工产能释放 行业现状与背景 的挑战 02 关键项目布局与产能升级 06 未来炼油市场发展方向 03 市场格局变革与行业影响 07 结语 04 未来炼化一体化改造后的需求变 化 Part01 行业现状与背景 产能扩张与转型 产能增长 2025年中国炼油一次产能将突破9.8亿吨/年，未来五年内仍将有大炼化项目陆续投产，产能扩张态势 明显。 转型驱动 o 在能源结构转型与化工产业升级的双重驱动下，炼油行业以大型炼化一体化项目为核心，推动产能结 构性升级。 发展趋势 行业呈现规模化、一体化与绿色化发展态势，这是未来5-10年的发展主线。 Part02 关键项目布局与产能升 级 2024-2025年投产项目 该项自投产2×1000万吨/年常减压装置，配套150万吨 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the oil and petrochemical industry [5] Core Viewpoints - International oil prices have shown a downward trend recently, with Brent crude settling at approximately $63.90 per barrel, down about 1.30% week-on-week, and down approximately 15.80% since the beginning of the year [19][21] - The North American active rig count has decreased week-on-week, with a notable year-on-year decline of 37 rigs, indicating a potential future increase in global drilling platform activity [31] - The refining sector shows promising recovery potential, with significant increases in price differentials for various products, suggesting improved profitability for refining companies [35] Market Performance - The CITIC oil and petrochemical sector rose approximately 0.37% during the week of May 26 to May 30, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by about 0.39 percentage points [16] - Key stocks that led the gains include Hengtong Co., Hongtian Co., and Compton, while stocks like Guangju Energy and Dongfang Shenghong saw declines [17][18] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies four main investment themes: 1. Focus on major energy state-owned enterprises like China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, which are pushing for oil and gas exploration and green transformation [53] 2. Increased global upstream capital expenditure benefiting oil service companies such as CNOOC Services and Offshore Engineering [53] 3. Accelerated development of coal chemical projects and natural gas resources in Xinjiang, with a focus on companies like Baofeng Energy and New Natural Gas [53] 4. Refining companies planning new capacities and accelerating new material projects, recommending companies like Satellite Chemical and Hengli Petrochemical [53]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Rongsheng Petrochemical's major shareholder has significantly increased its stake in the company, reflecting confidence in the long-term investment value of the domestic capital market and the company's future stability [1] - Rongsheng Petrochemical's major shareholder, Zhejiang Rongsheng Holding Group, has cumulatively increased its holdings by 203,554,992 shares, accounting for 2.01% of the total share capital, with a total investment amount close to 2 billion yuan [1] - The share buyback is part of three planned phases, with the third phase currently ongoing, involving an investment scale of 1 to 2 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - In the 2024 earnings presentation, Rongsheng Petrochemical emphasized its commitment to long-term value creation through technological innovation, green transformation, and strategic layout, enhancing its operational efficiency and global competitiveness [2] - The company reported a significant improvement in Q1 2025 net profit, achieving 588 million yuan, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 486.62%, driven by the recovery of crude oil cracking price differentials [2] - The company is actively expanding its product matrix to include differentiated, high-end, and green products, covering various fields such as new energy materials and synthetic resins [2] Group 3 - Analysts from Kaiyuan Securities noted that the adjustment of fuel oil policies is leading to the exit of marginal refining capacity, which will further highlight the value of Rongsheng Petrochemical's quality assets [3] - The collaboration with Saudi Aramco is expected to enhance the company's global layout and strengthen its risk resistance capabilities in cross-border operations [3] - The company's accelerated industrial layout and expansion into green product matrices are anticipated to improve profitability and long-term investment value [3]