摘要 全球经济或触底反弹，欧洲和亚洲（特别是中国）可能成为亮点。美国 经济增速预计放缓至 1.5%，通胀受关税影响短期上升，美联储或降息， 美元走弱，利好非美市场。 欧洲各国积极财政政策，德国军费大幅增加，市场对德国经济增长预期 上调。资金从美国流向欧洲，表明投资者对欧洲经济前景乐观。 美国与欧盟贸易谈判进展缓慢，但预计最终将达成妥协。欧洲能源成本 已恢复至疫情前水平，对经济产生积极影响，但市场尚未充分预期。 亚洲新兴市场国家（如韩国、中国）宏观表现超预期。中国出口拉动、 高端制造业升级、消费结构转型显现成效，经济增速超预期。 美元指数走弱对非美资产形成利好，预计 2025 年下半年非美权益市场 表现较好。全球国债市场表现分化，美国及部分拉美和亚洲国家长债表 现较好。 黄金价格受地缘政治影响短期难以突破前高，但长期来看，美元储备地 位削弱，多元储备体系形成，黄金仍具上涨潜力。铜价受库存转移和市 场情绪影响波动，短期或持续上涨，但中期高位难以维持。 中国经济结构转型，工业企业利润与 PPI 背离，上市公司 ROE 与 PPI 背 离，贸易顺差与社融背离，汇率与利率、中美利差背离等现象，都反映 了新的宏观背景带来 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The overall view is that the USD/CNY exchange rate will fluctuate weakly. The current situation shows a neutral economic expectation difference, a neutral Sino-US interest rate difference, and neutral trade policy uncertainty. The outlook suggests that the US dollar index is facing dual impacts of repeated inflation data and policy uncertainty, with a short-term weak trend. The RMB is supported by export resilience and flexible policy adjustments, and is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.15–7.20. It is recommended to maintain a neutral and flexible allocation [30][32]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantity and Price and Policy Signals Quantity and Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3-month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with significantly higher volatility on the Put side than on the Call side. The volatility of the USD/CNY option has declined, indicating a weakened market expectation of future volatility of the USD/CNY [4]. - The term structure data shows the changes in the premium and discount of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNY futures, bank forward premium and discount, and the Sino-US interest rate difference in different periods [8]. Policy Observation - The policy counter-cyclical factor has not been activated and shows a fluctuating trend. The 3-month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread has narrowed [10]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - The Fed has priced in a 65bp interest rate cut by 2025, and the pricing of US interest rate cuts has rebounded. The TGA account had a balance of $334.5 billion on June 25 (previous value of $383.8 billion, $120.7 billion/month), and the Fed's reverse repurchase balance was $210.8 billion. On June 24, Powell stated that there are multiple possibilities for the future monetary policy path [17]. - The US economic situation shows mixed employment, stable inflation below expectations, and marginal economic decline. Fiscal spending has declined, the economic sentiment in June has been differentiated, and retail sales in May have been under pressure [19]. Tariff Events - In the trade negotiations between the US and 15 key countries and regions, there is a differentiated pattern. As the deadline for Trump's "reciprocal tariff" 90-day suspension period (July 9) approaches, most negotiations have not made breakthroughs. The US government's attitude towards extension is inconsistent, and the subsequent progress needs continuous attention [20]. Event: The "Big and Beautiful" Bill - The bill consists of six parts and is expected to increase the deficit by $3.3 trillion from 2025 - 2034. Trump requires the bill to be passed before Independence Day. The US Senate passed the bill on July 1, and it has been submitted to the House of Representatives [24]. Macro: Chinese Economy - The economic structure in China showed increased pressure in May. The June national PMI was 49.7, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2 and a year-on-year increase of 0. The production volume increased by 0.3 to 51, and new orders increased by 0.4 to 49.5. Different industries showed different trends [25][27].

Group 1 - The article highlights the "magnetic effect" of the Chinese market, attracting foreign personnel and investment, with Shenzhen's Huaqiangbei receiving over 7,000 foreign visitors daily [1][15][17] - Foreign investment in China is on the rise, with 24,000 new foreign-invested enterprises established from January to May, a year-on-year increase of 10.4% [12][19] - The manufacturing sector is seeing significant foreign interest, exemplified by Henkel's new factory in Jiangsu and Tesla's Shanghai energy factory, which has a planned annual production capacity of 10,000 Megapacks [4][9][11] Group 2 - The financial sector is also experiencing a surge in foreign investment, with institutions like Temasek and AIA establishing operations in China, benefiting from the country's financial openness [11][22] - The article notes that foreign companies are increasingly recognizing China's potential for consumption upgrades and its complete supply chain system, which enhances its competitive advantage [12][14] - Visa facilitation policies have improved the ease of doing business for foreign nationals, contributing to a 33.4% year-on-year increase in foreign visitors [19][20] Group 3 - The article discusses the strategic importance of Hong Kong as a gateway for foreign investment into China, with a notable increase in foreign capital inflow despite geopolitical tensions [22][23] - Recent data indicates that foreign investors are increasingly interested in long-term strategic investments in China, moving beyond mere financial investments [25][26] - The article emphasizes that China's ongoing economic transformation is expected to create numerous new development opportunities, further attracting global capital [26]

Group 1 - Hong Kong serves as a crucial entry point for foreign capital into the Chinese market, attracting significant investment despite ongoing geopolitical tensions between China and the US [1][2] - The influx of foreign investment is driven by the recognition of the value of Chinese assets, particularly in sectors like internet, information technology, and new energy vehicles [1][2] - The Hong Kong stock market has shown improvement in valuation and liquidity, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 20% since 2025, outperforming major global markets [2][3] Group 2 - Foreign investors are increasingly using Hong Kong as a gateway to access the mainland capital market, with significant transactions recorded in the Bond Connect program [3] - A notable trend is the shift of Middle Eastern capital towards long-term strategic investments in China, focusing on structural cooperation and project-based investments rather than mere financial allocations [4] - The ongoing economic transformation in China is expected to create numerous new development opportunities, which will continue to attract global capital [3]

Group 1 - The ten-year government bond is influenced primarily by policy interest rates and economic cycles, benefiting from the current downward trend in interest rates [1] - The current economic environment is characterized by a structural transformation, with the economy gradually moving from a peak in 2021 to a bottoming phase, indicating weak demand [1] - Monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with potential for further easing signals, which is favorable for bond assets, particularly in the third quarter of this year [1] Group 2 - The Ten-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) is the only product tracking the Shanghai Composite Ten-Year Government Bond Index, consisting of bonds with maturities between seven to ten years [2] - The credit rating of government bonds is high, resulting in relatively low default risk, and the ETF's holdings are transparent, minimizing style drift risk [2] - The Ten-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) supports T+0 trading, enhancing liquidity for investors [2]

Core Viewpoint - The future of China's real estate market is expected to face significant downward pressure on housing prices, contrary to the predictions of some experts who suggest a supply shortage will drive prices up [1][8]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The current real estate market is characterized by an oversupply, with a total unsold residential area reaching 64,835 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 18.1%, indicating a supply-demand imbalance [1]. - The ongoing decline in construction and new starts is likely to alleviate inventory pressure rather than signal a future shortage of housing supply [1]. Group 2: Income Levels - Housing prices have become increasingly detached from residents' income levels, with average annual incomes in first-tier cities around 150,000 yuan, making it nearly impossible for families to afford homes priced at 6-7 million yuan without extreme financial strain [2]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Factors - Government policies may provide short-term support to the market, but they are unlikely to reverse the long-term downward trend in housing prices [4][5]. - The Chinese economy is expected to gradually reduce its reliance on the real estate sector, shifting towards a more sustainable growth model over the next five years [6][8]. Group 4: Industry Restructuring - The real estate sector is anticipated to undergo significant restructuring, with high-debt companies facing risks of mergers, reorganizations, or bankruptcies due to the ongoing financial challenges in the industry [8].

Core Viewpoint - The external environment is becoming increasingly complex and severe, with the global economic growth momentum shifting from "weak" to "diminishing" compared to the first quarter of 2025, highlighting rising trade barriers and persistent low domestic prices as new challenges [1] Monetary Policy Adjustments - The meeting suggested increasing the intensity of monetary policy adjustments, enhancing its foresight, targeting, and effectiveness, while flexibly managing the implementation strength and pace based on domestic and international economic conditions [3][4] - The central bank's previous recommendation for "timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts" has been implemented in the second quarter, with a focus on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [3] Structural Policy Tools - Since the second quarter, the central bank has comprehensively reduced the interest rates of various structural policy tools, including long-term tools for supporting agriculture and small enterprises, as well as temporary tools for carbon reduction and technological innovation [6] - The meeting emphasized the need to effectively utilize existing policies while actively implementing new policies to stimulate domestic demand, stabilize expectations, and invigorate the economy [6][8] Support for Key Areas - The meeting highlighted the importance of supporting technological innovation and boosting consumption, particularly in key areas such as "two heavies" and "two news," while exploring regular institutional arrangements to maintain capital market stability [8] - Experts noted that future monetary policy should increasingly adopt structural tools to support domestic demand expansion and facilitate economic structural transformation and industrial upgrading [8]

Economic Performance - In the first quarter of 2025, the US economy contracted by 0.5% on a year-over-year basis, which was below expectations and undermined confidence in sustained economic growth [1][3] - The contraction is attributed to complex structural issues within the economy, with tariff policies significantly impacting both imports and exports [1][5] Trade Dynamics - The US saw an import growth adjustment to 37.9% and export growth adjusted to 0.4%, with net imports dragging down GDP by nearly 4.7 percentage points [3] - The reliance on imports has increased, exacerbating the trade deficit and highlighting the imbalance in the economic structure [3][6] Consumer Spending - Personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of GDP, contributed only approximately 0.3 percentage points to GDP growth in the first quarter, indicating a decline in consumer purchasing power [3][5] - Consumer confidence has weakened, particularly in an uncertain economic environment, which has become a significant factor in hindering economic growth [3][8] Tariff Policy Impact - The "America First" trade policy implemented by the Trump administration aimed to protect domestic manufacturing but resulted in increased prices for imported goods, raising production costs for US businesses [5][6] - This policy has inadvertently shifted the burden onto consumers, leading to a slowdown in overall economic growth [5][8] Global Economic Uncertainty - The interconnectedness of the US economy with global markets means that uncertainties in other major economies, such as China and the EU, directly affect US export growth [6][8] - The slowdown in global economic growth has led many US companies to reduce investment and production plans, further contributing to domestic economic contraction [6][8] Structural Issues - The current economic challenges reflect long-term structural problems, with the US economy's dependence on external markets making it vulnerable to global uncertainties [8] - Addressing these structural issues, including reducing reliance on imports and adjusting trade strategies, is crucial for sustainable economic growth in the future [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Indonesian government has announced a summer economic stimulus plan worth 24.44 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 1.53 billion USD) aimed at boosting consumer spending to achieve a near 5% economic growth target by Q2 2025, in response to a slowdown in economic growth and various external pressures [1][2]. Economic Context - Indonesia's economy grew by 4.87% year-on-year in Q1 2023, marking the lowest growth rate in over three years, influenced by global trade tensions, uncertainties from U.S. tariffs, and weak domestic demand [1]. - The threat of up to 32% tariffs from the U.S. has created significant uncertainty for Indonesian exports, negatively impacting market confidence [1]. - From January to April 2023, foreign capital outflows from the Indonesian stock market reached 50.72 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 3 billion USD), with the bond market experiencing outflows of over 6.11 trillion Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 375 million USD) [1]. Stimulus Measures - The stimulus plan includes various measures such as: - 20% discount on toll fees for 110 million drivers and 30% discount on train tickets for 2.8 million passengers [2]. - 50% electricity bill discount for 79.3 million households to alleviate living costs and increase disposable income [2]. - Expansion of social assistance to 18.3 million households, providing additional monthly subsidies and free rice [2]. - Wage subsidies for low-income workers earning below 3.5 million Indonesian Rupiah (approximately 215 USD) [2]. Funding Sources - The funding for the stimulus plan will come from public-private partnerships for toll and unemployment insurance discounts, while the remaining funds will be allocated from the government budget [3]. Market Reactions - Mixed reactions from the market and experts, with some questioning the transfer of costs to the private sector, while others view the plan positively as a means to boost market confidence and address economic slowdown [3]. - Analysts believe that despite the challenges, the government's proactive approach could lead to a rebound in economic growth in Q2 2025 [3]. Long-term Challenges - Long-term sustainable development of the Indonesian economy faces challenges such as global trade dynamics, commodity price fluctuations, and structural domestic issues [4]. - Experts suggest that the government should implement structural reforms alongside short-term stimulus measures to enhance economic competitiveness and resilience [4].

Economic Growth and Structure - The Russian economy has shown resilience with an average GDP growth of over 4% in the past two years, surpassing the global average, and a 1.5% growth rate in the first four months of this year [2] - Non-resource GDP growth is more robust than overall growth, indicating a shift away from reliance on fossil fuel exports [2] - Inflation has decreased to single digits, allowing for potential cautious monetary policy easing [2] Transition to Balanced Growth - The key task for Russia this year is to ensure a transition to balanced economic growth, characterized by moderate inflation, low unemployment, and sustained positive development [3] - Five areas of transformation have been identified: changing employment and consumption patterns, optimizing the investment environment, enhancing technological innovation, improving the quality of foreign trade, and developing the military-industrial complex [3][4] Policy Discussions - The forum provided a platform for discussions on achieving a soft landing for the economy and structural changes, with varying opinions on the current economic situation [5][6] - The Ministry of Economic Development views the economy as being on the brink of crisis, while others believe it is merely in a cooling phase [6] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The central bank aims to maintain inflation at a target level of 4%, emphasizing the importance of sustainable economic growth [6] - There is a desire in the market for lower financing costs, with potential savings for the federal budget if the key interest rate is reduced [6] Currency Exchange Rate - The ruble is expected to gradually return to predicted levels as inflation eases and monetary policy is relaxed, with forecasts suggesting an average exchange rate of 94.3 rubles per dollar by 2025 [7] - Some experts argue for a moderate depreciation of the ruble to create favorable conditions for economic development [7]