Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow bull trend supported by policy shifts and improved liquidity, despite potential short-term volatility [1] - The market's risk appetite is being positively influenced by factors such as breakthroughs in the technology sector and changes in the US-China geopolitical landscape [1] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December is anticipated to provide external support for the A-share market's slow bull trend [1] Group 2 - The A-share market is showing signs of initial stabilization after adjustments caused by multiple internal and external factors, with a long-term upward trend remaining intact [2] - Improvements in dollar liquidity are expected, particularly with the Federal Reserve's dovish signals and the anticipated pause in quantitative tightening starting December 1, 2025 [2] - Institutional investors are expected to begin repositioning for 2026, with a potential increase in buying activity as market pressures ease [2] Group 3 - The A-share market experienced significant volatility and a slight decline in November, influenced by external risk appetite and sectoral differentiation [3] - The banking sector continues to lead, but there are indications that this trend may be nearing its end, while undervalued consumer sectors are showing stronger performance [3] - The market is likely to remain in a high-level oscillation without significant events to drive risk appetite upward, suggesting a focus on patience and strategic positioning for future opportunities [3]

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market fell by 5.09% last week, primarily influenced by the materials, healthcare, and industrial sectors, with the healthcare sector experiencing a significant decline of 8.65%[1] - The telecommunications and utilities sectors showed relative stability, with minor declines of 1.58% and 2.18% respectively, indicating a cautious market sentiment overall[1] - The net inflow of funds through the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached HKD 38.602 billion, suggesting a stabilization in the market as some short positions took profits[1] Investment Environment - Global risk appetite remained cautious, with major asset classes experiencing varying degrees of decline due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy direction[2] - The Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes revealed significant internal disagreement regarding the policy direction for December, contributing to market uncertainty[2] - A dovish statement from New York Fed President Williams improved market sentiment towards the end of the week[2] Future Outlook - The external environment is expected to improve, potentially leading to a short-term recovery in the Hong Kong stock market, driven by enhanced risk appetite and restored liquidity following the reopening of the U.S. government[3] - The upcoming release of the November CPI data on December 10 is anticipated to clarify the Federal Reserve's decision-making process for December, maintaining a level of uncertainty until then[3] - The overall liquidity situation is improving, as indicated by a decrease in the U.S. Treasury General Account balance, which suggests an influx of liquidity into the market[3]

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: November 24, 2025 - Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures - Investment Consulting Number: Z0019749 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03090299 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - The commodity market was under pressure last week, with an overall decline of 1.81%. All sectors closed lower, led by precious metals with a 4.07% drop. The Fed's wavering stance on interest rate cuts may lead to short - term volatility in the commodity market [2]. - The Fed's hawkish remarks tightened dollar liquidity, causing risk assets to fall. However, the weakening yen and a "dovish" speech by New York Fed President Williams on Friday improved market sentiment, though its sustainability is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The commodity market declined 1.81% last week. All sectors fell, with precious metals down 4.07%, energy and chemicals down 2.36%, agriculture down 1.55%, non - ferrous metals down 1.52%, and black metals down 0.25% [2][6]. - **Top - performing and Under - performing Varieties**: Iron ore, corn, and hot - rolled coils led the gainers with increases of 1.68%, 0.46%, and 0.43% respectively. Coking coal, silver, and pulp were the top losers, dropping 7.47%, 5.62%, and 4.6% respectively [2][6]. - **Volatility and Capital Flow**: The decline in the 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market narrowed, and the volatility of the precious metals sector further decreased. The overall market capital scale dropped significantly, with net outflows in all sectors, mainly concentrated in non - ferrous and precious metal varieties [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook for Different Sectors - **Precious Metals**: US economic data showed resilience, and Fed officials had different views. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in December is high, and the sector may remain volatile at high levels in the short term [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The release of lagging US economic data cooled the expectation of interest rate cuts, pushing up the dollar index and pressuring the sector. However, China's electricity consumption growth in October indicated economic resilience. The supply - demand structure is still loose, and the sector may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Black Metals**: The apparent demand for rebar improved last week, production increased, and inventory decreased. Iron - making still showed a seasonal decline, and steel mills continued to operate at a loss. The probability of further blast - furnace production cuts is high. The inventory of iron ore ports continued to accumulate, and the supply of coking coal tightened marginally. The sector may face pressure in the short term [3]. - **Energy**: The US is promoting the Russia - Ukraine agreement, suppressing the geopolitical risk premium. There is a greater expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, and oil prices may weaken in the short term [3]. - **Chemicals**: Positive news such as potential disruptions to PX imports, planned shutdowns of Korean toluene disproportionation plants, and PX flowing to the US initially boosted the market. However, the decline in oil prices and gasoline crack spreads and the drop in terminal weaving loads led to a weakening demand expectation, and the industry chain may fluctuate in the short term [3]. - **Agriculture**: The La Nina phenomenon is ongoing and is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere winter. Attention should be paid to its impact on soybean production in Brazil and Argentina. Soybean meal may continue to adjust following US soybeans, and the oil and oil - seed sector may weaken in the short term [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns. The total scale of gold ETFs was 223.739 billion yuan, with a 2.87% increase in share. The total trading volume was 1.297571899 billion, with an 8.02% decrease [35]. - **Other Commodity ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF, soybean - meal ETF, non - ferrous metal ETF, and silver fund also had different degrees of decline in weekly returns. The total scale of all commodity ETFs was 234.997 billion yuan, with a 2.67% increase in share, and the total trading volume was 2.005203321 billion, with a 1.41% increase [35].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin price has dropped below $82,000, a decline of over 30% from the peak of $126,000 in October, marking a new low since April. Analysts attribute this decline primarily to tightening dollar liquidity [1]. Group 1: Dollar Liquidity and Market Conditions - Since the end of October, dollar liquidity has noticeably tightened, although recent factors such as the reopening of the U.S. government have provided some relief [1]. - The significant increase in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance during the government shutdown has led to a liquidity withdrawal of approximately $700 billion from the market, exacerbating monetary market tensions [2]. - The Federal Reserve's ongoing balance sheet reduction has also contributed to the tightening of market liquidity, with total assets decreasing from $8.9 trillion to $6.6 trillion since June 2022 [4]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy - The FOMC meeting minutes revealed a significant divide among policymakers regarding the potential for further rate cuts in December, with some members noting that inflation is close to target while others emphasize persistent inflation above the target [5]. - Recent employment data has alleviated concerns about labor market downturns, leading to expectations that the Fed's next rate cut may be delayed until January [5]. - The Fed's decision to halt balance sheet reduction starting December 1 and reinvest maturing MBS into Treasury securities may further ease market pressures [6]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Future Outlook - The liquidity crisis has not fully materialized, remaining confined to specific areas of the repo market without widespread impact on the real economy or sectors like AI [6]. - Following dovish comments from the New York Fed President, market expectations for a December rate cut have surged, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut rising to 71% [7]. - The dollar index closed at 100.22, reflecting a 2.5% increase since the end of September, indicating a potential for a slight rebound in the dollar in Q4 [8].

Core Viewpoint - Bitcoin price has fallen below the critical psychological level of $90,000 for the first time in seven months, driven by a sharp shift in macro liquidity expectations and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook [2][3] Market Dynamics - As of the latest report, Bitcoin is trading at $89,777.1, down 5.45% [3] - The decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a decrease in the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, leading investors to systematically withdraw from high-risk assets [3] - Morgan Stanley's recent research indicates that if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) does not change its stance in December, the tightening of dollar liquidity will directly suppress the performance of non-yielding assets, including Bitcoin [3] Liquidity and Market Sentiment - Shiliang Tang from Monarq Asset Management notes that the weakening of rate cut expectations has altered funding cost expectations, resulting in a decline in the crypto market after losing the $100,000 threshold, which is seen as a natural outcome of the liquidity premium dissipating [3] - Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, warns that the drop in Bitcoin from $125,000 to the $90,000 range, while the stock market remains at historical highs, suggests that a "credit event is brewing" [3][4] Potential Price Movements - Hayes further indicates that the dollar liquidity index has weakened significantly since July, and if market conditions worsen, the Federal Reserve or other institutions may be forced to accelerate "money printing" to stabilize the situation, potentially leading Bitcoin to fall back to the $80,000 to $85,000 range [4] - Market analyst Damian Chmiel suggests that if Bitcoin continues to trade below $100,000, it could trigger a more severe sell-off, with the next target being the April low of approximately $74,000, indicating about a 30% potential downside from current levels [4] Long-term Outlook - Despite recent market turmoil, Tom Lee from Fundstrat maintains a bullish outlook, predicting that Bitcoin could soar to between $150,000 and $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing that the market has recently experienced a historic liquidation event larger than the FTX collapse, which has not shaken his long-term confidence [4]

Core Insights - The report analyzes the current state and future trends of US dollar liquidity through a three-dimensional observation matrix, focusing on the federal funds market, the repo market, and the offshore dollar market, indicating that while liquidity remains ample, structural pressures are building [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Funds Market - The core observation metric has shifted from "price" to "scale," with total reserves in the banking system reflecting the abundance of base dollars. As of September 2025, total reserves are maintained at $3.2 trillion, accounting for 12.9% of total bank assets, indicating a relatively ample liquidity condition [1][11]. - Despite the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction since June 2022, the use of reverse repo tools has buffered the impact, preventing a significant withdrawal of reserves from the banking system [1][11]. - Continuous balance sheet reduction, rising Treasury General Account balances, and the nearing exhaustion of overnight reverse repo tools indicate that reserves are under pressure and may approach the liquidity warning line set by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 2: Repo Market - The repo market serves as a crucial hub for dollar liquidity, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the behavior of primary dealers being key observation points. Recently, the spread between SOFR and the overnight reverse repo rate has widened, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [2][18]. - The ratio of primary dealer reverse repos to reserve balances has been increasing, suggesting a tightening of funding supply, although it has not yet reached crisis levels seen in past financial stress periods [2][18]. - The Federal Reserve's standing repo facility has been heavily utilized at quarter-end, highlighting vulnerabilities in the repo market during structural gaps [2][21]. Group 3: Offshore Dollar Market - The offshore dollar market has shown characteristics of "bondification" and "derivatization," with traditional bank credit declining and bonds and foreign exchange derivatives becoming the main drivers of credit expansion [2][25]. - Monitoring offshore dollar liquidity is challenging through quantity indicators; thus, the currency swap basis has become an important observation metric. A widening basis indicates dollar scarcity, while a narrowing trend since 2025 suggests maintained liquidity even under external shocks [2][30]. - The transition from LIBOR to SOFR as the primary pricing benchmark reflects a shift in global dollar pricing power from offshore to onshore markets, diminishing the relevance of LIBOR-related indicators [2][29].

Market Overview - On November 18, US stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones falling over 500 points, a decrease of approximately 1.2% [1] - The S&P 500 index has dropped over 2% since November, ending a six-month streak of gains, and is down more than 3% from its historical peak [1] - The tech-heavy Nasdaq has fallen over 5% from its record high [1] Stock Performance - Major tech stocks mostly declined, with Micron Technology down nearly 2%, Nvidia and Apple down over 1.8%, and Meta down 1.2%. Tesla, however, rose by 1.1% [2] - Google was a notable exception, initially rising 6% to reach a new all-time high before closing with a gain of just over 3%. Berkshire Hathaway reportedly built a position in Google during Q3 [2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell by 1.21%, with significant declines in several Chinese stocks, including Yatsen Global down nearly 21% and XPeng down over 10% [2] Commodity Market - Precious metals and base metals experienced widespread declines, with spot gold dropping nearly 2% to a low of $4006.80 per ounce before closing around $4045 [4] - LME aluminum, nickel, and lead all fell over 1% [4] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a reduced probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, now at 42.9% [4] Cryptocurrency Market - Cryptocurrencies faced significant declines, with Bitcoin dropping below $92,000 and Ethereum also falling below $3,000 [4][5] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 160,000 traders were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of $851 million [5] - The recent drop in Bitcoin prices is attributed to tightening dollar liquidity and changing Federal Reserve policy expectations, leading to increased selling pressure on high-volatility assets [5][6] Risk Assets - An unusual phenomenon observed is the simultaneous decline of risk assets like Bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets like gold, which raises concerns [6]

Market Performance - US stock market opened lower but turned positive, with the Dow Jones up 0.01%, S&P 500 up 0.01%, and Nasdaq up 0.07% as of 23:16 [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Micron Technology rising over 5% to reach a new historical high, while Nvidia, Apple, and Amazon fell over 1% [2][3] Company Highlights - Berkshire Hathaway disclosed its Q3 13F report, marking Warren Buffett's last detailed stock portfolio disclosure before stepping down as CEO, revealing significant sales of Apple shares and purchases of Alphabet shares [2] - Google (Alphabet) stock rose over 4%, reaching a market value of over $3.5 trillion [2] Chinese Stocks - Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.04%, but some popular Chinese stocks like Alibaba, GDS, and JD.com saw gains of 3.6%, 3.3%, and 2.4% respectively [3] Precious Metals - Gold prices continued to adjust, with spot gold down 0.43% at $4062.56 per ounce, and COMEX gold futures down 0.49% at $4074.2 [3][4] Cryptocurrency Market - Most cryptocurrencies continued to decline, with Bitcoin down 1.32% and Ethereum and Solana dropping nearly 2% [5] - Over the past 24 hours, more than 160,000 traders were liquidated, with total liquidation amounting to $786 million [6] - Bitcoin's price fell below $94,000, erasing all gains for the year and dropping over 25% from its peak of $126,251 on October 6 [6][7] Market Sentiment - Analysts noted that the significant drop in Bitcoin's price is primarily due to tightening dollar liquidity and changing Federal Reserve policy expectations, leading to increased selling pressure on high-volatility assets [7] - A concerning trend observed is the simultaneous decline of risk assets like Bitcoin and traditional safe-haven assets like gold, indicating potential systemic liquidity issues in the market [7]

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices declining sharply due to factors such as reduced liquidity and a growing trust crisis in crypto assets [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - Bitcoin has fallen below the critical threshold of $95,000, with a daily drop of over 1%, a weekly decline of nearly 10%, and a monthly decrease of 14% [1]. - As of November 16, Bitcoin's price was $95,500, down 24% from its yearly high of $126,200 [1]. - Ethereum has also weakened, with a current price of $3,174, reflecting a daily drop of 1.55% and a monthly decline of 20% [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Over the past 24 hours, more than 97,800 investors in the global cryptocurrency market faced liquidation, with total liquidated amounts reaching $251 million [1]. - The decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to a contraction in dollar liquidity, driven by rising short-term U.S. interbank rates (SOFR), leading to a "money shortage" in financial markets [2]. Group 3: Trust Crisis and Regulatory Environment - The seizure of 127,000 Bitcoins by the U.S. Department of Justice from a Cambodian fraud group, valued at approximately $15 billion, has undermined the perceived security of crypto assets [2]. - The incident has raised serious questions about the safety of cryptocurrency transactions, potentially leading to a long-term bear market if investor confidence continues to wane [2]. - There are noticeable signs of institutional capital withdrawal, with net outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. since November, compounded by ongoing regulatory uncertainties [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that if dollar liquidity continues to tighten, Bitcoin may test the $90,000 level; conversely, if the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts and liquidity improves, a rebound could occur [3]. - The cryptocurrency market faces multiple uncertainties in the long term, and investors are advised to recognize the high-risk nature of crypto assets [3]. - Bitcoin is undergoing a transformation from a speculative asset to an institutional asset, with its future value increasingly dependent on liquidity conditions, regulatory policies, and the rebuilding of trust [3].

Core Viewpoint - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant downward pressure, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices declining sharply, indicating a broader market downturn [1][3][4]. Market Performance - Bitcoin's price has fallen to $95,563, down 24% from its yearly high of $126,200, with a daily drop of 0.54%, a weekly decline of nearly 10%, and a monthly decrease of 14% [3]. - Ethereum is also under pressure, currently priced at $3,174, with a daily drop of 1.55% and a monthly decline of 20% [3]. Market Dynamics - A total of 97,824 investors faced liquidation in the past 24 hours, with a cumulative liquidation amount of $251 million, reflecting significant volatility in the market [3]. - The decline in Bitcoin's price is attributed to two main factors: its "scarcity" and "dollar liquidity," with the immediate trigger being the contraction of dollar liquidity [4]. Trust Crisis - A recent event where the U.S. Department of Justice seized 127,000 Bitcoins from a Cambodian fraud group, valued at approximately $15 billion, has undermined the perceived security of cryptocurrency [4]. - The belief that cryptocurrencies are absolutely secure has been challenged, leading to a potential long-term bear market if trust in transaction security continues to erode [4]. Institutional Behavior - There are clear signs of institutional capital withdrawal, with net outflows observed in Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs since November, compounded by ongoing regulatory uncertainties [4][5]. Future Outlook - If dollar liquidity continues to tighten, Bitcoin may test the $90,000 support level; conversely, if the Federal Reserve resumes rate cuts, a rebound could occur [5]. - The long-term outlook for the cryptocurrency market remains uncertain, with a need for investors to recognize the high-risk nature of these assets [5]. - Bitcoin is transitioning from a speculative asset to an institutional asset, with its future value increasingly dependent on liquidity conditions, regulatory policies, and the rebuilding of trust [5].