Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has adjusted the profit forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) down by 2% for 2025 due to the extended export ban in Congo, while increasing the profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 5% and 8% respectively [1] Group 1: Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum in 2025 has been reduced by 2% [1] - Profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 5% and 8% respectively [1] Group 2: Target Price Changes - The A-share target price has been raised from 10 RMB to 14 RMB [1] - The H-share target price has been increased from 8.2 HKD to 13.5 HKD [1] Group 3: Market Performance and Influencing Factors - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price rose on the previous day, driven by strong performance in the first half of the year and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts in the US [1] - The company is experiencing strong growth in copper and cobalt production, approaching the upper limit of its annual guidance [1] - The export ban in Congo may negatively impact the gross profit of the cobalt business in the third quarter, but investors are likely to overlook this factor as copper prices are seen as the key driver for the stock price [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley has adjusted the profit forecast for Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH, 03993) for 2025 down by 2% due to the extended export ban in Congo, while increasing the profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 by 5% and 8% respectively [1] Group 1: Profit Forecast Adjustments - The profit forecast for 2025 has been reduced by 2% to reflect the impact of the extended export ban in Congo [1] - Profit forecasts for 2026 and 2027 have been increased by 5% and 8% respectively [1] Group 2: Target Price Changes - The A-share target price has been raised from 10 RMB to 14 RMB [1] - The H-share target price has been increased from 8.2 HKD to 13.5 HKD [1] Group 3: Stock Performance and Market Factors - Luoyang Molybdenum's stock price rose on the previous day, driven by strong performance in the first half of the year and increasing expectations of interest rate cuts in the US [1] - The company is experiencing strong growth in copper and cobalt production, which is gradually reaching the upper limit of annual guidance [1] - The export ban in Congo may negatively impact the gross profit of the cobalt business in the third quarter, but investors are likely to overlook this factor as copper prices are seen as the key driver for stock performance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Mexican stock market experienced a significant decline on August 25, primarily due to a cooling of optimistic sentiment regarding potential interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, leading to profit-taking by investors [1] Market Performance - The main index of the Mexican Stock Exchange (BMV), S&P/BMV IPC, fell by 1.24%, closing at 58,492.13 points [1] - The FTSE BIVA index of the Mexican Institutional Stock Exchange (Biva) also decreased by 1.24%, reaching 1,172.19 points [1] - Most constituent stocks declined, with the largest drop seen in Peñoles Industries, which fell by 6.51% [1] - Walmart de México experienced a decline of 2.94%, while Grupo México, a mining giant, dropped by 2.31% [1] Market Context - The Mexican stock market had reached a historical high the previous week, driven by expectations of a potential interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve in September [1] - As market sentiment turned cautious, a correction occurred at the start of the new week [1] - Year-to-date, the S&P/BMV IPC index has increased by 18.13% [1]

Investment Rating - The report rates the non-bank financial sector as "Strong Outperform" [1] Core Insights - The resilience of the market has significantly increased in 2025, with margin trading balances concentrated in the manufacturing sector. The new policies from the CSRC under Chairman Wu have enhanced coordination among market participants, leading to improved market stability amid trade frictions [3][5] - The impact of US stock market declines on A-shares is diminishing, with a potential trend of reduced correlation between the two markets. A-shares are currently in the early to mid-phase of a market uptrend, with valuations remaining reasonable [3][5] - The market is pricing in expectations for US interest rate cuts and the effects of overseas investment taxation, which may lead to increased domestic investment and trading activity in the securities market [3][5] - Margin trading represents household funds, and there is potential for it to reach new highs. As of July 31, 2025, despite market declines, leveraged funds increased by 432 million, reaching a new peak for the year [3][5] Summary by Sections Market Performance and Trends - The market has been active recently, reflecting the effects of new public fund assessment regulations, capacity reduction policies, and US tariff policies. Margin trading has reached new highs, with significant fluctuations in the banking and insurance sectors [5][6] - Historical factors driving the strength of brokerage firms include domestic macro policy easing and overseas liquidity expansion. The focus should be on internal issues and the potential for US economic recession leading to interest rate cuts [5][6] Margin Trading Structure - As of August 6, 2025, the margin trading balance as a percentage of market capitalization has slightly increased compared to 2018, indicating a growing trend [22] - The top industries for margin trading balances from January to July 2025 include securities, semiconductors, software development, IT services, and communication equipment [58][68] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the margin trading market will show a trend of oscillating strength, with the balance and guarantee ratios diverging. The increase in leveraged funds during market adjustments suggests a robust market response [74] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring changes in margin trading scales as they are crucial for market dynamics [41][74]

Group 1 - Copper prices are currently in a fluctuating state, with high levels of electrolytic copper supply and weak downstream consumption due to seasonal factors [1] - The accumulation of inventory in the US after continuous stocking in the first half of the year has weakened the logic of price increases driven by replenishment demand following tariff implementation [1] - Market trading is influenced by interest rate cut expectations, which have caused fluctuations in the US dollar index, impacting copper prices [1] Group 2 - Domestic smelting plants have reduced production less than market expectations due to increased use of scrap materials and rising prices of by-products like sulfuric acid, leading to lower-than-expected losses [2] - The expected reduction in electrolytic copper production in the second half of the year is likely to remain at high levels, with short-term supply-demand issues in the mining sector easing slightly [2] - Despite the short-term easing, the long-term supply gap in raw materials has not been resolved, and the mining shortage is expected to exert further pressure on smelting production by the end of the year [2] Group 3 - After the implementation of US tariffs, the demand from exports has weakened, but the market shows resilience as companies prepare for the peak season [3] - There is a cautious attitude towards peak season consumption, with no strong expectations for either robust or weak demand, although market sentiment appears relatively positive [3] - The current electrolytic copper market does not exhibit significant contradictions, and the mining shortage has not fully transmitted to the smelting sector [3] Group 4 - Domestic signals indicate increased fiscal support, but the focus is more on "anti-involution" and phasing out outdated capacity, which has limited relevance to the copper market [4] - The market is reassessing the likelihood of dovish interest rate cuts, with a weaker dollar providing renewed support for the base metals sector [4] - The macroeconomic outlook remains crucial, as rising interest rate cut expectations could drive copper prices upward, although potential hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve could exert downward pressure [4]

近期，铜价总体保持震荡态势，电解铜供应仍保持在偏高水平，而下游消费维持在淡季节奏中。美国在 上半年持续备货之后，积累了大量库存，因而在关税落地后受备货补库需求推动的铜价上涨逻辑减弱。 在基本面驱动有限的情况下，市场继续交易降息预期，带动美元指数反复，对铜价形成扰动。展望后 市，我们认为降息预期仍是影响铜价的关键因素。 矿端短缺尚未完全传导到冶炼端 上半年国内冶炼厂实际减产规模小于市场预期，主要原因在于，一方面原料端加大废料使用力度，铜矿 短缺带来的冲击弱于预期，另一方面硫酸等副产品的价格持续上涨使得冶炼厂的实际亏损也小于预期。 根据冶炼厂检修计划，下半年的检修减产规模预计与上半年类似，电解铜产量可能整体保持在偏高水 平。近期，铜精矿TC延续小幅回升态势，海外冶炼厂减产规模扩大使得短期矿端供需矛盾略有缓和， 但港口原料库存仍在去化，已经回落至历史偏低水平，原料端长期缺口扩大的局面并未发生扭转。随着 时间的推移，矿端的短缺问题预计在年底对冶炼端的生产构成进一步压力，但短期而言，尚未看到影响 扩大的可能性，8—9月预计国内电解铜产量仍将保持在偏高水平。 需求端，在美国关税落地后，出口对需求的拉动减弱，且美国铜的部分 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the London gold price dropped by -1.73%, and the London silver price fell by -1.46%. The gold-silver ratio decreased from 88.5 in the previous week to 88.4, the 10-year TIPS declined to 1.95%, the 10-year nominal interest rate rose to 4.33% (2-year 3.75%), and the US dollar index reached 97.86. The released US PPI data was significantly higher than expected, contrasting with the slightly eased CPI data, highlighting the impact of import inflation caused by tariffs and reducing the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut. Overall, it's hard to predict the trend of gold and silver. Gold is expected to weaken in the short term, but the price around 3300 remains a good buying point [5]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) - **Overseas Spot-Futures Price Spread**: - Gold: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX gold主力 dropped to -46.43 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was -45.4 dollars per ounce [11]. - Silver: This week, the spread between London spot and COMEX silver主力 narrowed to -0.033 dollars per ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was -0.14 dollars per ounce [14]. - **Domestic Spot-Futures Price Spread**: - Gold: This week, the domestic gold spot-futures price spread was -3.72 yuan per gram, at the lower end of the historical range [18]. - Silver: This week, the domestic silver spot-futures price spread was -16 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [21]. - **Inter-Month Spread**: - Gold: This week, the gold inter-month spread was 6.26 yuan per gram, at the upper end of the historical range [26]. - Silver: This week, the silver inter-month spread was 71 yuan per kilogram, at the upper end of the historical range [29]. - **Delivery Cost of Long-Short Spread Arbitrage between Near and Far Months**: - Gold: The total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 7.57 yuan per gram; the total cost of buying December contract and selling June contract was 14.13 yuan per gram [32][33]. - Silver: The total cost of buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 94.29 yuan per kilogram; the total cost of buying December contract and selling June contract was 161.93 yuan per kilogram [34][35]. - **Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Spot Gold and Silver at the Shanghai Gold Exchange**: This week, for gold at the gold exchange, the deferred fee was mainly paid from longs to shorts, indicating strong delivery power; the same was true for silver [36]. - **Inventory and Position-to-Inventory Ratio**: - Gold: This week, the COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.05 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio rose to 38.64%. The domestic gold futures inventory increased by 300 tons [38][42]. - Silver: This week, the COMEX silver inventory increased by 1.06 million ounces to 507.55 million ounces, and the registered warrant ratio dropped to 37.5%. The domestic silver futures inventory decreased by 16.83 tons to 1158 tons [40][42]. - **CFTC Non-Commercial Positions in Gold and Silver**: This week, the non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold and silver both slightly declined [44]. - **ETF Positions**: - Gold: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF increased by 6.27 tons [49]. - Silver: This week, the inventory of the silver SLV ETF decreased by 40.96 tons [51]. - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: This week, the gold-silver ratio decreased from 88.7 last week to 88.4 [53]. - **COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold and Silver Lease Rates**: This week, the 1M gold lease rate was -0.23%, and the 1M silver lease rate was 1.77% [55] Core Drivers of Gold - **Gold and Real Interest Rates**: This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [60]. - **Inflation and Retail Sales Performance**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Non-Farm Payroll Performance**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Industrial Manufacturing Cycle and Financial Conditions**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Economic Surprise Index and Inflation Surprise Index**: No specific analysis results provided in the text. - **Probability of Fed Interest Rate Cut**: The table shows the probability of interest rate hikes or cuts in different regions and time points, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The economic growth rate in China showed a marginal slowdown in July, but there's no need for excessive concern as a package of stable - economy policies are gradually taking effect, and more consumption - promotion policies are expected. The uncertainty of a September interest rate cut in the US remains, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [1]. Summary of Each Section 1. Domestic Economic Growth Slowdown in July 1.1 Economic Growth Slowdown in July - In July, economic data indicated a marginal slowdown in economic growth. The total retail sales of consumer goods were 387.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month. The added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, 1.1 percentage points lower than the previous month. The year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was 1.6%, a decline of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The marginal decline in the production side in July was affected by seasonal factors, the "anti - involution" policy, and extreme weather. The decline in consumption growth might be related to the early release of some demand by the trade - in policy, and the consumption confidence index has not significantly recovered. Investment in manufacturing, real estate, and infrastructure all showed a marginal downward trend, with decreases of 1.3, 0.8, and 1.61 percentage points respectively from the previous month, and the growth rates dropped to 6.2%, - 12%, and 9.29% [3]. 1.2 Decision - makers' Consumption - Promotion Policies - On August 12, the Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration jointly issued the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy on Personal Consumption Loans, and the Ministry of Finance and eight other departments issued the Implementation Plan for the Interest Subsidy Policy on Loans to Service - Industry Business Entities [7]. - The personal consumption loan interest subsidy policy has a one - year implementation period, covering various consumer areas. It will promote the total retail sales of consumer goods to some extent, but the specific effect is difficult to measure, and its signaling significance is relatively strong. The service - industry business entity loan interest subsidy policy provides a 1 - percentage - point annual interest subsidy for eligible service - industry business entities, with a maximum subsidy of 10,000 yuan per household, mainly benefiting service - industry consumption [8]. 1.3 Uncertainty of a September Interest Rate Cut - The US CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than market expectations, while the core CPI reached the highest level since February. The PPI in July showed an unexpected performance, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.3%. Whether the US will cut interest rates in September remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to US economic data and Powell's speech [14]. 2. Key Economic Data and Events 2.1 Domestic Key Events - Important policies include the public solicitation of opinions on the Implementation Regulations of the Value - Added Tax Law of the People's Republic of China, the simplification of account - opening materials for overseas central - bank - type institutions, and the issuance of consumption - loan and service - industry business - entity loan interest subsidy policies [17]. - Key economic data: Since the start of the summer travel season, the national railway has sent 599 million passengers, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%. In July, automobile production and sales decreased by 7.3% and 10.7% month - on - month respectively, but increased by 13.3% and 14.7% year - on - year. China's July financial data showed that M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the new social financing in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [20]. 2.2 Overseas Key Events - In the US, Trump's team included several people in the list of candidates for the Fed Chair. The US debt exceeded 37 trillion US dollars for the first time. The US CPI in July was 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI reached a five - month high. After the data release, traders increased their bets on a September interest rate cut, but the unexpected PPI data dampened the enthusiasm [21][23]. - In Europe, German government said European leaders and Ukrainian President Zelensky would talk to Trump, and the EU hopes to pass the 19th round of sanctions against Russia next month [25]. - Regarding tariffs, Trump stated that gold would not be taxed, India hopes to continue bilateral trade negotiations, and Brazil has sued the US over tariff measures [26]. - Geopolitically, Iraq and Iran signed a security memorandum, Trump hopes to meet Putin again, and there are discussions about a possible new arms agreement between the US and Russia [27]. 3. Key Events and Data to be Focused on Next Week - Key events and data include the US 6 - month Treasury bill auction rate on August 18, China's central bank's 1 - year LPR on August 20, the eurozone CPI on August 20, the US initial jobless claims on August 21, and the US existing - home sales annualized month - on - month on August 21 [28]. 4. Weekly Performance of Major Asset Classes No specific summary of asset price changes is provided in the text, only charts of domestic stock indexes, bond markets, and various commodity indexes are presented.

周二晚间，纽约银上涨0.57%，报38.002美元/盎司，沪银上涨0.39%，报9205元/千克。 （8月13日）全国白银价格一览表 规格 报价 报价类型 交货地 交易商 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 9185元/千克 市场价 上海 上海华通有色金属现货市场 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 9223元/千克 市场价 上海 长江有色金属现货市场 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 9200元/千克 市场价 上海 上海白银现货市场 品名:1#白银 ;牌号:IC-Ag99.99 ; 9272元/千克 市场价 上海 上海白银 期货市场上看，8月13日收盘，沪银期货主力合约报9300.00元/千克，涨幅1.43%，最高触及9310.00元/ 千克，最低下探9135.00元/千克，日内成交量达415237手。 【市场资讯】 8月12日，上期所白银期货仓单1151209千克，环比上个交易日减少7178千克。 8月12日芝加哥商业交易所（CME）：白银期货成交量为103055手，较上个交易日减少5104手。未平仓 合约为156462手，较上个交易日增加1989手。 分析观点 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, driven by a temporary easing of US-China tariffs and positive market sentiment regarding metal prices due to anticipated interest rate cuts in the US [1][2] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) rose by 1.07% as of August 13, 2025, with significant gains in stocks such as Luoyang Molybdenum (up 3.65%) and Jiangxi Copper (up 3.62%) [1] - The non-ferrous ETF fund (159880) increased by 1.23%, reflecting the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector [1] Group 2 - As of July 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Index accounted for 49.71% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Northern Rare Earth [2] - The non-ferrous ETF fund has various connection options, including A, C, and I classes, indicating a structured investment approach for different investor needs [2]