Economic Performance - November industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 5% and the previous month's 4.9%[1] - The industrial export delivery value showed a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, a significant improvement from the previous month's -2.1%[1] - The service sector production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month[2] Retail and Consumption - Retail sales in November increased by 1.3% year-on-year, down from 2.9% in the previous month[3] - The contribution of national subsidies to retail sales declined by approximately 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month[3] - Restaurant revenue growth slowed to 3.2% year-on-year, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, but still above the third quarter average of 1.4%[3] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, a decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month[4] - Manufacturing investment maintained positive growth, while real estate investment fell to -15.9% year-on-year[4] - In November, fixed asset investment showed a year-on-year decline of 12.0%, stabilizing close to the previous month's -12.2%[4] Real Estate Market - November real estate sales area and sales value decreased by 25.1% and 17.3% year-on-year, respectively, with sales area showing a month-on-month increase of 9.3%[5] - New home prices in 70 major cities fell by 0.4% month-on-month, with first-tier cities leading the decline at -1.1%[5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The weighted year-on-year growth of industrial and service production indicators was 4.4%, while the demand side showed a decline of 3.8%[6] - The gap between production and demand growth rates is the largest since March 2020, indicating increasing supply-demand imbalances[7]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Derivatives Weekly Report - Report Date: 2025/12/12 - Author: Xu Liang Z0002220 - Reviewer: Tang Yun Z0002422 Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Bullish factors include the synergy of counter - cyclical policies and fiscal - monetary easing, and loose liquidity, which support the bond market [2] - Bearish factors are that the 10 - year Treasury bond futures are in a short - term state with a flat curve structure and limited policy stimulus [2] - The trading advice is to monitor liquidity and policy trends and maintain a wait - and - see or light - position strategy [2] Content Summary Bond Yields and Interest Rates - Information on 2Y, 5Y, 7Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond yields from 2024/04 to 2025/08 and deposit - class institutional repurchase rates from 2023/12 to 2025/06 is presented [3] Bond Spreads - Data on 7Y - 2Y and 30Y - 7Y Treasury bond spreads from 2024/04 to 2025/08 are provided [4][5] Futures Positions and Trading Volume - Information on the positions of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond futures from 2015/12 to 2023/12 and trading volume from 2024/04 to 2025/08 is shown [7] Futures Basis and Spreads - Data on the basis of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond futures' current - quarter contracts and the spreads between current - and next - quarter contracts of 2Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bond futures are presented [8][9][10][13][15][16] Cross - Variety Spreads - Information on TS*4 - T and T*3 - TL cross - variety spreads from 2023/06 to 2025/08 is included [18][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The key policy goal in 2026 is likely price recovery, similar to the situation in 2016 when the importance of GDP growth rate decreased and price recovery was crucial [3][4]. - In 2026, there are two possibilities for the real - estate market. One is a market - based bottoming of housing prices after they fall back to near 2015 levels, and the other is a policy - oriented bottoming if prices fall below 2015 levels [6]. - In 2026, price recovery is highly likely. Depending on the housing price situation, there are three scenarios for the market, all involving rising long - term bond yields and stock market increases [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Policy Goals - Price recovery is likely an important policy goal in 2026, as indicated by multiple mentions of price - related content in the Central Economic Work Conference. The conference addressed issues such as supply - demand imbalance, expansion of domestic demand, fiscal and monetary policies, competition regulation, and environmental protection [3]. - The logic in 2026 may be similar to that in 2016, with a decline in the importance of GDP growth rate and price recovery being the key. In 2016, the actual GDP growth rate decreased by 0.2% compared to 2015, while the nominal GDP growth rate increased by over 1%, and price recovery improved corporate profits and the stock market [4]. Policy Measures - The policy focus has shifted from reversing the downward price trend (2022 - 2024.9) to maintaining price stability (2025.12). The policy emphasizes maintaining overall policy intensity and making decisions based on the situation to hedge against downward pressure [5]. - Specific measures include maintaining necessary fiscal deficits, debt, and spending; using new policy - based financial tools; and the option of flexible use of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, which are not mandatory and depend on external shocks [5]. Real - Estate - The government's approach to real - estate risk has two stages: moral risk and systemic risk. Currently, the policy is at the moral risk stage, but may shift if housing prices continue to fall [6]. - In 2026, there are two possible scenarios for the real - estate market: a market - based bottoming of housing prices after falling back to near 2015 levels, or a policy - oriented bottoming if prices fall below 2015 levels [6]. Key Variables in 2026 - There is a high probability of price recovery in 2026, which will lead to three market scenarios: price recovery with falling housing prices, price recovery with market - based bottoming of housing prices, and price recovery with policy - based bottoming of housing prices, all resulting in rising long - term bond yields and stock market increases [7].

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasized the need to maintain stability while seeking progress and improving quality and efficiency in economic policies for the upcoming year [1][2] - The integration of existing and new policies will be enhanced, with a focus on increasing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to improve macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1][2] - Analyst Zhang Yu noted that the current policies are considered extraordinary, leading to a noticeable improvement in economic circulation, with indicators such as M1 and corporate and household deposit growth rates showing a continuous rebound [1][2] Group 2 - There is an expectation for the economy to gradually reduce its reliance on extraordinary policies, potentially returning to normalized counter-cyclical policies by 2026 [1][2] - The macroeconomic policy approach is characterized as flexible, dynamic, and responsive to changing circumstances [1][2]

Group 1 - The external environment is assessed positively, with exports growing by 5.4% from January to November, indicating resilience against external shocks [1][13] - The upcoming year is expected to maintain high export growth due to dual resilience in market share and external demand [1][13] Group 2 - The policy approach is shifting from extraordinary measures to more conventional methods, emphasizing the effectiveness of existing policies rather than relying on new incremental policies [2][14] - The overall economic cycle has improved, with indicators like M1 and corporate deposits showing recovery, suggesting a gradual move away from extraordinary policy dependence [2][14] Group 3 - Risk management pressure has decreased, with significant risks in real estate and hidden debts being largely controlled, allowing the government to focus on other areas like reform and opening up [3][15] Group 4 - Fiscal support is expected to decrease, with budget growth rates for 2023-2025 set at 3.3%, 5.1%, and 5.1%, respectively, aligning closely with economic targets [4][5][16] - The fiscal deficit is projected to remain around 4% in 2026, indicating a stabilization rather than an increase in fiscal deficit rates [5][17] Group 5 - The economy is facing a supply-demand imbalance, with strong supply but weak demand, leading to challenges in domestic consumption and employment [6][18] - The nominal GDP growth is anticipated to rise from 4.0% in 2025 to approximately 4.5% in 2026, with CPI expected at around 0.7% and PPI at -1.4% [6][18] Group 6 - The midstream manufacturing sector is expected to be the most stable and promising area, benefiting from external demand resilience and domestic supply constraints [7][19]

Group 1 - The external environment is showing signs of improvement, with exports maintaining a growth rate of 5.4% from January to November, indicating resilience in external demand [2] - The government is shifting from extraordinary to more conventional counter-cyclical policies, emphasizing the effectiveness of existing policies rather than relying on new stimulus measures [3] - Risk management pressures have eased, with significant risks in real estate and hidden debts being largely controlled, allowing the government to focus on other areas such as reform and opening up [4] Group 2 - Fiscal support may see a reduction, with projected budget growth rates for 2023-2025 at 3.3%, 5.1%, and 5.1%, aligning closely with economic targets [6] - The fiscal deficit is expected to remain around 4% in 2026, indicating a stabilization rather than an increase in deficit levels [7] - The economy is transitioning from a state of insufficient demand to a situation characterized by strong supply but weak demand, with a focus on resolving these issues through supply-side measures [8] Group 3 - The midstream manufacturing sector is expected to remain the most stable and promising area, benefiting from resilient external demand and domestic supply constraints [10]

银河证券研报称，看好2026年中国股票市场的投资机会：其一，逆周期政策力度维持，物价低位回升和 名义GDP中枢上移，企业盈利和居民信心同步修复，内部条件好转；其二，美国政策重心内移，中美迎 来一年宝贵的缓和期，且货币政策整体保持宽松态势，外部环境改善；其三，资本市场作为新旧动能转 换的重要枢纽，在"乘势而上"（支持科技和高质量发展）和"因势利导"（提振信心和财富效应）方面都 具有重要意义，中长期资金入市和股市上涨之间形成正循环，进而带动居民存款搬家。其四，银河证券 的"银河指南针"显示，在房价逐步触底、汇率稳步升值的情形下，投资中国股票市场有望获得超额回 报。虽然"宽信用"在2026年较难实现，但股债跷跷板效应或对无风险收益率造成持续扰动，预计10年期 国债收益率保持在1.6%~1.95%之间，走势整体前高后低。 ...

Economic Overview - In early November, the first batch of Q4 fundamental data showed inflation recovery but other indicators like credit, fixed asset investment, and real estate sales were below expectations, highlighting a "weak reality" challenge[1] - The central bank has signaled a cautious "loose monetary" stance, indicating that the marginal effectiveness of further easing has declined significantly[1] Monetary Policy Adaptation - From 2022 to 2025, the central bank's approach has shifted from "preemptive" to "reactive," with rate cuts occurring after risk confirmation rather than before[2] - Current economic conditions suggest that industrial value-added and service production indices need to reach approximately 5.2% year-on-year in November-December to offset October's slowdown and meet the annual growth target of 5%[2] Bond Market Strategy - In the short term, the bond market is expected to focus on spread opportunities until a clear direction in interest rates emerges, prioritizing the relative value between different bond types[3] - The expectation for "loose monetary" policy to continue is still present, with potential rate cuts anticipated at the end of the year or early next year[3] Financial Product Trends - The scale of financial products saw a slight decrease of 307 billion yuan, bringing the total to 33.36 trillion yuan, reflecting typical seasonal fluctuations[29] - The proportion of negative returns in financial products has decreased, with the overall negative return rate dropping to 1.77% for the past week[36] Leverage and Risk Indicators - The average leverage ratio in the interbank market has decreased from 107.53% to 107.08%, indicating a tightening of leverage conditions[55] - The average leverage level for non-bank institutions also fell from 113.22% to 112.18%, suggesting a broader trend of deleveraging[55]

Economic Overview - Domestic demand growth is slowing, but the quality of growth is expected to improve[6] - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year decreased from -0.5% to -1.7%, slightly below expectations[6] - Real estate development investment has a cumulative year-on-year decline of over -14%[6] Consumption Insights - Retail sales cumulative year-on-year increased by 0.8% compared to the end of last year, indicating resilience in consumer spending[6] - Consumption in sectors like beverages, tobacco, and cosmetics improved by 7.9%, 2.5%, and 1% respectively, while home appliances and automobiles saw declines of -14.6% and -6.6%[6] Export and Production Trends - Export delivery value decreased by -2.1% year-on-year, significantly lower than the previous value of 3.8%[6] - Industrial added value decreased from 6.5% to 4.9% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in production[6] Policy and Investment Outlook - New policy financial tools totaling 500 billion yuan have been fully deployed, expected to drive total project investment of about 7 trillion yuan[6] - The government's commitment to support the economy remains strong, despite the time lag in policy effects[6] Risk Factors - The rapid changes in industry dynamics due to "anti-involution" may lead to employment pressures[6]

Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI decreased from 49.8% in September to 49% in October, falling below seasonal levels [1][3] - The non-manufacturing business activity index slightly increased from 50% in September to 50.1% in October, influenced by holiday scheduling and reduced working days [1][3] - The holiday scheduling disrupted industrial production and export readings in October, while consumption indicators received marginal support [1][3] Group 2 - Given that the PMI remains in a weak range, further counter-cyclical policies are crucial to boost manufacturing sentiment [1][3]