Core Viewpoint - The commodity ETF market has experienced significant growth in both scale and performance, indicating its transition from a niche option to a core strategic asset in asset allocation [3][4]. Group 1: Growth in Scale and Performance - The total scale of commodity ETFs has increased by over 200% since the beginning of the year, with a total net inflow of 966.2 billion yuan, bringing the total scale to 2,267 billion yuan [5][7]. - Gold ETFs have emerged as the main driver of this growth, with an average scale increase of 4.8 times this year, significantly outperforming traditional equity and bond assets [7][9]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The explosive growth of commodity ETFs is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic conditions, market structure, and investor awareness, with gold ETFs particularly benefiting from their inflation-hedging and asset preservation functions [9][10]. - The price of gold has surged, reaching a peak of over 4,100 USD per ounce, which has been a key factor in the strong performance of gold ETFs, with returns close to 50% this year [9][21]. Group 3: Investment Value Analysis - Gold ETFs dominate the commodity ETF market, accounting for over 95% of the total scale, making it essential to analyze future gold price trends for assessing the investment value of commodity ETFs [17][18]. - The anticipated easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve is expected to support gold prices, as historical trends show that a rate-cutting cycle typically leads to a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices [18][19]. Group 4: Selection and Allocation Strategies - For investors focused on asset preservation and risk hedging, gold ETFs are the preferred choice, while those looking to capitalize on economic cycles may consider allocating to industrial metal or energy ETFs [24][25]. - A diversified allocation strategy is suggested, with varying proportions of gold ETFs, industrial metal ETFs, and energy ETFs based on the investor's risk tolerance and market outlook [25]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The future of the commodity ETF market appears promising, with ongoing product innovation expected to solidify commodity ETFs as a standard allocation in investment portfolios, especially in times of global uncertainty [26].

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on market sentiment and the likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, highlighting a shift in expectations for rate cuts in December and January [4][25]. - It emphasizes the volatility in gold prices and the broader implications for asset management strategies, particularly among fund managers [4][25]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Interest Rates - The probability of a rate cut in January has increased from 17.4% to 25.2% over two weeks, with expectations for a December cut rising from 40.6% to 58.3% [25][24]. - The article suggests that the market's perception of rate cuts significantly influences stock valuations, particularly regarding the timing of potential cuts [4][25]. Group 2: Gold and Other Assets Performance - Gold prices have seen a significant increase from approximately $2,300 to around $4,000, with a recent decline of 7.2% from this year's peak of $4,381 [5][25]. - Comparatively, the Nasdaq and Bitcoin have also experienced declines of 7.4% and 31.7%, respectively, indicating that gold has outperformed these assets in the current market [5][25]. Group 3: Fund Management and Positioning - Managed positions in COMEX gold have decreased by 10.3%, while silver and platinum have seen declines of 19.8% and 11.6%, respectively, indicating a shift in fund manager strategies [5][13]. - The article notes that fund managers are locking in profits and reducing leverage, contributing to recent asset price declines [4][25]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Economic Indicators - The article posits that the global economy may not recover significantly next year, with inflationary pressures potentially impacting investment strategies [28]. - It highlights the importance of monitoring gold prices as a barometer for market sentiment, particularly in relation to economic indicators and geopolitical risks [18][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economy may face challenges as inflation re - heats in September, retail sales growth slows, and the Fed may need to cut interest rates. The peace plan for the Russia - Ukraine conflict is making progress, which could potentially impact global markets. In the domestic market, the A - share market rebounds, and the bond market shows mixed performance. The commodity market has different trends in various sectors such as metals, energy, and agriculture [3][22][31] - The report also provides macro - economic data, which shows the current economic situation such as GDP growth, PMI, and inflation rates in the domestic market, and also includes information on international economic data and events that may affect the global and domestic investment environment [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2%. The manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49%, down from 49.8% in the previous month. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, slightly up from 50% [1] - Social financing scale in October 2025 was 816.1 billion yuan, a significant drop from 3529.9 billion yuan in the previous month. M0, M1, and M2 growth rates all declined compared to the previous month [1] - CPI in October 2025 was 0.2% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month. PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% [1] 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The China - US leaders' phone call was initiated by the US, with a positive atmosphere. The US is making progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the Fed may cut interest rates [2][3] - On November 25, 47 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 22 had negative basis.沪镍, 郑棉, and铸造铝合金 had the largest basis [2] 3.2.2 Metals - International precious metal futures generally rose due to factors such as the Fed's potential rate cut, the uncertain situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and concerns about the US fiscal deficit [5] - Zinc, copper, aluminum, lead, tin, and nickel inventories in the London Metal Exchange changed on November 24. Hong Kong's gold exports to the Chinese mainland decreased in October [5] 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - November, the prices of coke, coking coal, and rebar all increased. However, the increase in coke prices has squeezed steel mills' profits, and coke prices may face downward pressure at the end of the month or early December [7] 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Norway aims to maintain its oil and gas production at 2020 levels by 2035 and will invest about 60 billion Norwegian kroner. European natural gas prices are expected to decline [9] - Iraq's oil exports in October were 110.9 million barrels, and measures are taken to maintain the production of the West Qurna - 2 oilfield [9] 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - As of mid - November, the prices of corn, wheat, and rice increased, while the price of cotton decreased. The price of natural rubber rose [11] - The inventory of breeding sows in China decreased, and the pig price is expected to rise moderately before the Spring Festival. The breeding of poultry and eggs is expected to face losses [12] 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 25, the central bank conducted 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 105.4 billion yuan [14] 3.3.2 Key News - The US is making progress in the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, and the China - US leaders' phone call is positive. The Chinese government will hold a press conference on promoting consumption [15][16] - China's foreign direct investment and overseas project contracting increased from January to October. Local government special bonds are being issued for government investment funds [16] 3.3.3 Bond Market - The A - share market is strong, while the bond market is weak. The yields of medium - and long - term interest - rate bonds generally increased, and the prices of some bonds of Vanke decreased significantly [22] - The exchange - traded bond market had mixed performance, and the convertible bond index rose. The money market interest rates had different trends [23] 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell. Non - US currencies generally rose [27] 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Whether the Fed will cut interest rates in December is uncertain. Active management bond funds can break the situation through strategies such as "fixed income +" and medium - long - term credit amortization [28][29] - For 2026, it is recommended to set the GDP target at around 5% and implement more active fiscal and monetary policies [29] 3.4 Stock Market - The A - share market rebounded, with lithium mines and the Fujian sector performing strongly. The Hong Kong stock market also rose, and the repurchase amount of A - shares and Hong Kong stocks reached a high level this year [31][32] - Multiple funds have reported new ETF products [32]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in A-share market has led to increased discussions on risk aversion, with public fund companies showing a tendency to limit large subscriptions for defensive funds while actively launching equity index products [1][2]. Group 1: Fund Subscription Trends - Many public fund institutions have chosen to limit large subscriptions for defensive products such as bond funds, money market funds, and dividend-themed funds, reflecting a cautious approach towards potential inflows of risk-averse capital [2][3]. - Since November 14, over a hundred products, primarily bond funds, have suspended large subscriptions, indicating a trend towards restraint in accepting new capital [2][3]. - Fund managers emphasize the importance of maintaining a balanced approach to fund inflows, as excessive short-term capital can hinder effective investment management and potentially harm investor interests [1][2]. Group 2: Active Equity Fund Launches - Despite the cautious stance on defensive funds, there is a notable enthusiasm for launching equity index products, with several new funds being introduced under major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [2][3]. - For instance, the Guotou Ruijin Shanghai Composite Index Enhanced Fund raised 971 million yuan during its subscription period from October 22 to November 11, attracting 3,453 investors [2]. - The number of newly established products linked to the Shanghai Index and the North Star 50 Index has reached historical highs this year, with 8 and 23 products respectively, while the ChiNext Index has seen 17 new products, matching last year's total [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook and Sector Focus - Various institutions believe that the recent market fluctuations do not alter the long-term positive trend, suggesting a focus on structural opportunities, particularly in sectors with favorable industry trends such as technology, consumption, high-end manufacturing, and pharmaceuticals [3][4]. - The market is expected to experience a mid-term upward trend, supported by ample liquidity and improving industry conditions, despite potential short-term volatility [3][4]. - Companies are advised to balance their portfolios by increasing allocations to stable dividend assets while also investing in sectors with strong industrial trends, such as AI computing power and new energy [4].

Group 1 - COMEX silver futures are currently trading at around $51.40, showing an increase of 0.52% from the opening price of $51.16, with a high of $51.51 and a low of $50.77, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to heightened demand for safe-haven assets like silver, as Ukraine issued emergency air alerts and the situation remains tense with military actions [1] - The peace talks between the U.S. and Ukraine have been complicated, with Russia rejecting the European version of the peace plan, suggesting a low likelihood of a quick resolution to the conflict [1] Group 2 - The December silver futures market shows that bulls have a technical advantage, with the next target being to close above the strong resistance level of $54.415, while bears aim to push prices below the support level of $47.00 [2] - The first resistance level is identified at the recent high of $50.555, followed by $51.00, while the initial support level is at today's low of $49.37, with the next support at $49.00 [2]

Core Viewpoint - US stock market rebounded with the Dow Jones increasing by nearly 500 points, while Chinese concept stocks index rose by 1.23% [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Hong Kong's three major indices opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.92%, the National Index increasing by 0.81%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 1.13% [1] - Major technology stocks such as Baidu, Xiaomi, and JD.com experienced significant gains, contributing to the overall market rebound [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - UBS warned of four potential risks in the coming year but maintained a positive outlook on gold as a safe-haven asset, leading to notable increases in gold stocks, with China Gold International rising by nearly 5% [1] - Automotive and lithium battery stocks showed strong performance, while wind power stocks, sports goods stocks, and rare earth concept stocks generally declined [1] - Innovation Industry had a strong debut, opening over 38% higher on its first trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CHF exchange rate has experienced a significant decline, with a daily drop of 2.45% and a cumulative decrease of over 10.6% since October's high of 0.9010, marking the largest monthly drop in 2023. The market is influenced by two opposing forces: the safe-haven demand for CHF due to escalating Middle East tensions and the support for USD from the Federal Reserve's high-interest rate policy. Upcoming Swiss GDP and inflation data are seen as crucial to breaking this stalemate [1][2]. Group 1: Exchange Rate Dynamics - The volatility in the USD/CHF exchange rate is primarily driven by the contrasting monetary policies of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Federal Reserve. The SNB is facing pressure to reconsider its zero interest rate policy due to a 0.5% decline in Q3 GDP and a 2.1% year-on-year drop in industrial output, which has sparked discussions about potentially reintroducing negative interest rates [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve, while maintaining a stance on inflation not meeting targets, has seen the USD index drop from a high of 105 to around 102, influenced by the safe-haven demand for CHF [2]. Group 2: Safe-Haven Demand for CHF - The CHF has gained popularity as a safe-haven asset, even surpassing gold in attractiveness, with the largest CHF ETF seeing a 15% increase in holdings over the past week. However, the recent trade agreement reducing tariffs on Swiss goods is only expected to offset one-third of the export losses caused by CHF appreciation [3]. - The SNB's cautious approach to negative interest rates is evident, as it has set a dual threshold of "economic recession + deflation" before considering such measures, which has temporarily restrained CHF's rapid appreciation [2][3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis of USD/CHF - Technically, the USD/CHF has broken below previous support levels, indicating a "guillotine" pattern, with current trading around 0.8049 in a downtrend. Key resistance levels are identified between 0.8150 and 0.8180, while support is centered around the psychological level of 0.8000 [4]. - Indicators suggest an "oversold rebound" signal, with the exchange rate deviating significantly from the 20-day moving average and the RSI indicator at a three-year low, indicating a high probability of a rebound in the near term [4].

Group 1 - The recent U.S. employment data indicates a significant decline in private sector jobs, averaging a decrease of 2,500 jobs per week in the first four weeks of November, compared to an increase of 14,000 jobs in the first half of October, signaling a shift from growth to contraction in the job market [2] - Weak employment data suggests a decrease in economic vitality, leading to increased market expectations for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, which typically supports gold prices as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset [2] - Following the employment report, gold prices rebounded, reflecting the market's direct response to the anticipated policy shift [2] Group 2 - Gold's significance extends beyond investment; it serves as a "safety net" for individuals facing financial difficulties, as illustrated by a couple who turned to their gold jewelry for emergency cash to manage their living expenses and debts [3] - The value of gold is highlighted as not just a symbol of wealth but also as a crucial asset that can be liquidated in times of need, providing financial security during market volatility [3][4] - The narrative emphasizes that while gold prices may fluctuate, its intrinsic value remains constant, serving as a reliable resource in challenging times [3][4] Group 3 - Recommendations suggest that individuals should consider allocating a portion of their investments to gold (such as gold bars or ETFs) to combat inflation and diversify risk [5] - In urgent situations, converting idle gold jewelry into cash can help avoid falling into debt traps, showcasing gold's role as a last line of defense against financial uncertainty [5] - The enduring nature of gold as a hard currency reinforces its position as a critical asset for individuals to mitigate risks in an unpredictable market [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a significant decline in Asian markets due to escalating political tensions between Japan and China, with the Nikkei 225 and KOSPI dropping by 3.22% and 3.32% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 fell by 0.81% and 0.65% [1] - The overall trading volume in the A-share market was 1.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 156 billion yuan compared to the previous day, indicating a high level of trading activity despite the market downturn [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index also experienced declines of 1.72% and 1.93%, respectively, with significant net inflows into stocks like Alibaba and XPeng [1][4] Group 2: Sector Performance - The report notes a rotation in sector performance, with the renewable energy sector experiencing a downturn while AI and semiconductor sectors showed resilience, with respective increases of 0.77% and 0.75% [3] - The renewable energy sector's strong performance prior to November 14 raised expectations, making it more sensitive to negative news, while the AI and semiconductor sectors benefited from reduced structural risks [3] - In the Hong Kong market, technology stocks saw continued net inflows, particularly into ETFs focused on technology, indicating a strong interest in this sector despite broader market declines [4] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has seen a decrease in trading activity, with the number of transactions for 10-year government bonds and policy bank bonds dropping significantly compared to late October [4][5] - The report suggests that the current low volatility environment may favor a more cautious trading approach, with a recommendation to consider spread strategies in the bond market [6] - Recent monetary policy actions, including the central bank's repo operations, have maintained a stable liquidity environment, although there are signs of tightening due to upcoming fiscal payments [5] Group 4: Commodity Market Sentiment - The commodity market is characterized by weak sentiment, with declines in precious metals and industrial metals, attributed to a retreat in global risk appetite and expectations of interest rate changes [7][8] - Significant outflows were observed across major commodity sectors, with notable withdrawals from precious metals, non-ferrous metals, and renewable energy commodities [7] - The report indicates that the recent pullback in precious metals may be nearing an end, with central bank gold purchasing trends remaining strong despite short-term fluctuations [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the global risk-off sentiment affecting various markets, including declines in U.S. stocks, Japanese stocks, cryptocurrencies, and even gold. It highlights the investment strategies of former President Trump, who purchased significant amounts of corporate and municipal bonds during this period [1]. Market Overview - The article notes that the A-share market experienced a collective decline on November 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.81%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.92%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.16%. The total trading volume across the three markets was 1,946.17 billion yuan, an increase of 15.701 billion yuan from the previous day [16]. - Over 4,100 stocks in the market fell, with 63 stocks hitting the daily limit up, while 23 stocks were locked, and 17 stocks had consecutive limit-ups, with the maximum being six consecutive limit-ups [16]. Sector Analysis - The lithium battery sector faced a downturn due to profit-taking and rumors regarding price increases being debunked. Additionally, there were reports of a price war in the energy storage sector, with prices dropping by 30% [12]. - The AI application sector saw some stocks rise against the trend, with companies like Rongji Software and Inspur Software performing well [16]. - The semiconductor sector remained active, driven by concerns over supply chain security due to changing Sino-Japanese relations and the upcoming IPOs of domestic companies [16]. Financial Support Initiatives - The People's Bank of China and 12 other departments issued a plan to boost consumption in Beijing, particularly focusing on financial support for automobile loans, including incentives for new energy vehicle purchases [23]. Investment Trends - The article highlights that the main funds saw a net outflow of 87.67 billion yuan, with the largest outflows occurring in the electric equipment sector. Conversely, sectors like media, computing, and communication saw net inflows [26]. - Notable stocks with significant net inflows included Liou Shares and Huasheng Tiancai, while companies like Tianshi Materials and Yangguang Electric Power experienced the largest net outflows [26]. Valuation and Market Sentiment - The article indicates that sectors such as media, computing, and electronics are leading in performance, while coal, electric equipment, and steel are lagging. The trading heat in sectors like defense, basic chemicals, and agriculture has increased, with some sectors like agriculture and non-bank financials currently at historical low PE percentiles [33].