据IMF数据显示，全球外汇储备管理机构在第一季度将避险资产配置从日元转向瑞士法郎。这些资金在 1月至3月间抛售了创纪录的943亿美元日元，同时买入了667亿美元瑞士法郎，导致截至3月31日，瑞士 法郎在全球储备中的占比跃升至0.76%。（彭博） ...

美联储观察：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为92.8%，降息25个基点的概率为7.2%。美联储9月维持利 率不变的概率为29.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为65.4%。当前市场押注美联储今年将在9月、12月各 降息1次。 【宏观消息】 10日，据消息人士称欧美关税谈判提速，汽车行业为欧方"红线"；据悉巴西前总统博索纳罗可能会请求 特朗普取消对巴西的关税措施，现任巴西总统卢拉表示如果与美国的谈判无法达成，将会实施对等关 税；智利寻求免除美国铜关税；另据美媒报道称，因关税税率从11%上升至20%，越南方面未同意特朗 普自行公布的关税税率。 戴利：考虑在秋季实施降息，认为今年会降息两次。未看到持续关税对价格的影响证据；沃勒重申了7 月降息的可能原因，并表示其宽松政策并不具有政治动机，稳定币可提振对美元的总体需求。 【黄金期货行情表现】 7月11日，沪金主力暂报774.36元/克，涨幅达0.41%，今日沪金主力开盘价774..6元/克，截至目前最高 775.46元/克，最低770.46元/克。 【机构观点】 随着关税谈判限期进入最后一个月，市场避险情绪小幅回归，令黄金再次展现出良好的韧性。另外，美 联储官员近日发言偏 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 11 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国总统推出更多关税措施特别是对巴西对等关税税率从 10%提高到 50%，关 税武器化程度加剧提振黄金的避险需求；美联储会议纪要显示大部分官员认为关 税政策带来的通胀压力将是暂时的；因此今年晚些时候将重启降息进程，美联储 降息预期再次升温并打压美元汇率和提振贵金属价格，伦敦黄金反弹至 3330 美元 /盎司附近。特朗普 2.0 新政推动全球政经格局重组进入乱纪元模式，黄金的避险 需求得到极大提振；目前看黄金波动性上升但中线上涨趋势保持良好，伦敦 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the escalation of trade tensions between the U.S. and Canada, with President Trump announcing a significant increase in tariffs on Canadian goods, which has triggered a rise in safe-haven assets like gold [2][3] - The new tariff rate will increase to 35% from the previous rate, marking a 10 percentage point rise, and this is the third time the Trump administration has pressured Canada this year [2] - The Canadian government is evaluating countermeasures, indicating a willingness to negotiate but insisting on keeping the tariff rates within a tolerable range [3] Group 2 - The price of paper gold has shown an upward trend, currently reported at 768.33 yuan per gram, with a 0.31% increase, reflecting the market's reaction to the heightened geopolitical risks [1] - Technical analysis suggests that while gold prices have faced resistance, they remain above key support levels, indicating potential for a rebound in the near future [4] - Key resistance levels for paper gold are identified between 775-785 yuan, while support levels are noted at 750-760 yuan [4]

北京时间周五(7月11日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于97.80附近，现货白银今日开盘于36.99美元/盎司，目 前交投于37.10美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于9000元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于9040元/千克附近。今 日基本面无重点关注的数据及事件，将继续依托本周已有的因素环境走延续性行情，预计白银价格将继 续震荡走盘波动。 周四(7月10日)美元指数上涨0.10%，收报97.59，现货白银收报37.00美元/盎司，上涨1.73%，在现货白 银上涨之际，其他贵金属纷纷上涨：现货黄金上涨0.31%，报3323.76美元/盎司，现货铂金收张0.66%， 报1353.50美元/盎司；现货钯金收涨2.67%，至1135.89元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 细究特朗普的关税声明，可谓"软硬兼施"。白宫官员紧急"灭火"称，符合《美墨加协定》的商品仍可豁 免，但强调政策可能随时生变。值得注意的是，这已是特朗普政府年内第三次对加拿大施压——此前已 对非协定商品征收25%关税，如今再提10个百分点的惩罚性关税，相当于对特定商品累计税率高达 60%。 但银价涨幅仍受两大因素制约：一方面，美元指数也短线拉升0.3%，周线有望上涨0. ...

Group 1 - The core difference between gold and silver lies in their attributes, with gold primarily having financial properties and silver possessing both industrial and financial properties, which significantly affects their market performance in 2025 [1] - Gold pricing is mainly driven by US dollar liquidity and safe-haven demand, while silver's industrial demand accounts for 58.5%, with a projected 18% growth in global photovoltaic installations, leading to a dual logic of "industrial drive + financial recovery" for silver in Q2 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - Fundamental analysis for gold focuses on monetary policy and geopolitical risks, while silver requires attention to industrial data; for instance, a rise in global manufacturing PMI above the neutral line would boost silver demand [4] - The volatility of silver is significantly higher than that of gold, making silver more suitable for short-term trading strategies, as evidenced by the higher volatility rates observed in July 2025 [5] Group 3 - In the context of the Federal Reserve's policy cycle, gold relies more on interest rate expectations, while silver's performance is influenced by both industrial data and the gold-silver ratio; a breakout in the gold-silver ratio can indicate potential valuation recovery for silver [6] - A practical case in June 2025 showed that gold rose by 2.8% due to increased steel tariffs, while silver surged by 5.3% driven by industrial demand expectations and gold-silver ratio recovery [7] Group 4 - The conclusion emphasizes that gold should focus on "monetary attributes + interest rate cycles," while silver should pay attention to "industrial demand + gold-silver ratio recovery," suggesting a dynamic balance strategy for both metals [8]

黑色 股债 数据体现我国经济韧性,市场避险情绪缓和,建议股指多头持有。市场利率 盘整,国债走势窄幅反弹,国债多头轻仓持有。 山西主流钢厂粗钢限产约600万吨,"反内卷"下成材供应或有望收缩,关注 政策具体文件落地,需求侧暂无明显增量,黑色板块情绪带动下大幅拉涨。 黄金 特朗普最新关税政策使得市场避险情绪回升提振金价,但美元上涨压制黄金 。美联储6月会议纪要偏鹰,市场预期美联储降息时间推迟,预计黄金维持高 位震荡。 原木 现货市价格偏弱运行,山东市场价格下跌10元,江苏市场价格持稳,到港量 预计环减,供应中枢下移,供应压力减缓,日均出库量维持在6万方以上,供 需矛盾不大,关注原木期货交割对原木价格的影响。 2025年7月11日 星期五 美中西部天气良好,南美大豆丰产持续出口,因美豆出口销售表现良好,空 头回补提振美豆。7月份进口大豆到港约1000万吨,油厂开机率维持高位,油 厂提货量有所回落,豆粕库存持续回升,豆粕短期偏震荡。 譯張 缺乏明确指引 油价可能回归窄幅波动,PX持续去库,跟随油价波动;PTA供 需预期转弱,短期跟随成本波动;短期原料回暖,但MEG共需趋弱,盘面上方 空间受压制。 生猪 当前养殖端挺价 ...

操作策略： 周四亚市早盘，现货黄金维持小幅上涨态势，价格一度突破3320关口，目前维持在3315附近波动。周三 金价在跌至近两周低点3282.61后出现强劲反弹，最终收于3313.38，显示出明显的回升动能。美国总统特 朗普宣布将关税协议推迟至8月1日开始实施，这一决定暂时缓解了市场紧张情绪。但他同时表示协议到 期后将不再延期，并继续发出关税威胁，这使得全球贸易不确定性增加，市场避险情绪升温。这种情况 可能对经济和通胀产生负面影响，进而削弱美元走势，为黄金价格提供支撑。 黄金价格延续隔夜偏强震荡格局，但在3330关键阻力位反复争夺后，预期出现受阻回落，目前价格回落 至3315附近。这种走势表明，隔夜的异常反弹主要受短线避险情绪推动，随着市场消息面趋于平静，情 绪稳定后，行情大概率将回归技术面趋势。黄金价格预计维持震荡整理，偏弱回调概率较大。重点关注 3330附近阻力位争夺. 若意外突破该位置，上方将面临20日均线3345的强阻力。下方支撑位需重点关注 3305-3300区间，技术面更倾向于价格回落至3310下方，届时可能重启技术性偏弱回调趋势，后续强支撑 位可关注3285-3280区间. 晚间短线来看翁富豪建 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on imports from 14 countries, which has led to a decline in gold prices, while central banks continue to increase their gold reserves, indicating a strong demand for gold as a diversified asset amidst geopolitical risks [2][4]. Group 1: Tariffs and Gold Prices - U.S. President Trump announced tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports from 14 countries starting August 1, contributing to a drop in gold prices, which fell below $3,300 per ounce, a decrease of approximately $200 from the historical high in late April [2]. - Despite the decline in gold prices, global central banks have been net buyers of gold, with a reported purchase of 20 tons in May, and China's gold reserves increased by 70,000 ounces by the end of June [2][3]. Group 2: Central Bank Demand - The trend of central banks purchasing gold has been ongoing for over a decade, driven by the need for asset diversification, particularly in light of increasing geopolitical risks [2][4]. - It is projected that global central banks will purchase over 1,000 tons of gold annually from 2022 to 2024, accounting for about 25% of total global gold demand each year, which is seen as a significant factor in the recent rise in gold prices [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Investors are expected to continue diversifying their portfolios, with gold being a favored asset due to its low correlation with other assets and its status as a physical asset [5][7]. - The current macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical risks are likely to keep gold as a preferred choice for risk-averse investors, with expectations of increased gold prices in the coming quarters [5][6]. Group 4: Future Price Predictions - UBS has raised its gold price target for the end of 2025 to $3,500 per ounce, citing ongoing investor interest in gold as a diversification strategy amidst economic uncertainties [5]. - Short-term market dynamics may allow for further price corrections, but there remains significant interest in buying gold at lower prices, indicating a potential for price recovery [8]. Group 5: Indicators for Gold Price Movements - Key indicators for assessing short-term gold price movements include tracking gold ETF fund flows, futures market positions, and physical investment market indicators such as premiums or discounts in key markets like India and China [9].

大宗商品研究所 贵金属研发报告 贵金属衍生品日报 2025 年 7 月 10 日 研究所副所长：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询号：Z0017510 研究员：王露晨 CFA 期货从业证号：F03110758 投资咨询号：Z0021675 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 邮箱： wangluchen_qh@chinastock.co m.cn 贵金属衍生品日报 【市场回顾】 1.贵金属市场：今天白天，贵金属小幅反弹。伦敦金震荡走高，当前交投于 3323 美元附近，伦敦银则交投于 36.5 美元附近。受外盘驱动，沪金主力合约收涨 0.49%，报 773.3 元/克，沪银主力合约收涨 0.22%，报 8919 元/千克。 2.美元指数：美元指数低开后窄幅波动，当前交投于 97.45 附近。 3.美债收益率：10 年美债收益率窄幅波动，当前交投于 4.35%附近。 4.人民币汇率：人民币兑美元汇率高位震荡，当前交投于 7.177 附近。 【重要资讯】 1.特朗普政府动向：①7 月 9 日，特朗普再向 8 国发出关税信函：自 8 月 1 日 起，美国将对菲律 ...