受国际油价大跌影响，A股油气股集体大跌，泰山石油、贝肯能源等大跌，航运方向也多股大跌。 港股方面，截至10:49，恒生指数涨近2%。 盘面看，港股油气股全线重挫，截至北京时间10:49，山东墨龙跌超18%，中石化油服跌超12%，吉星新 能源跌超35%；航运及港口股集体下跌，德翔海运跌近14%，太平洋航运跌超12%。 | 内地股票 △ | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 行情 | 资金净流入 | 涨跌分布 | | 上证指数 | 深证成指 | 北证50 | | 3412.04 | 10182.47 | 1405.52 | | +30.46 +0.90% +134.08 +1.33% +37.37 +2.73% | | | | 科创50 | 创业板指 | 万得全A | | 975.66 | 2055.35 | 5191.56 | | +14.17 +1.47% +37.72 +1.87% +60.89 +1.19% | | | | 沪深300 | 中证500 | 中证A500 | | 3897.94 | 5742.14 | 4559.87 | | +40.04 +1.04% +67.97 +1. ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the ongoing volatility in the gold market, characterized by frequent price fluctuations and a "super sweep" trend that is expected to continue [3][5]. - The recent Federal Reserve decision to maintain interest rates has led to a decrease in the probability of rate cuts in 2025, impacting market sentiment and contributing to gold's price movements [3]. - Current support levels for gold are identified at 3345-50, with resistance at 3385 and 3400, indicating a potential for further price action depending on market developments [3][6]. Group 2 - Recent military actions involving the U.S. and Israel targeting Iranian nuclear facilities have not significantly affected gold prices, despite being perceived as a risk factor [5]. - The market sentiment is leaning towards bearish for gold, with specific price levels to watch for potential short positions, particularly if the price breaks below key support levels [6][8]. - Trading strategies are being advised to include strict stop-loss measures to mitigate risks associated with the current market volatility [8].

当日，伊朗对以色列实施第 14轮打击，并使用"泥石"弹道导弹袭击德黑兰地区，引发中东局 势紧张。以色列国防军亦对伊朗核设施所在区域发动空袭，双方冲突升级。此事件对市场情绪 产生较大影响，尤其是和源板块和伊朗替代概念。 油气开采及服务板块逆势领涨，万得行业指数中，能源设备与服务指数（ 882200.WI）涨 1.98%，燃气指数（882259.WI）涨1.27%，石油天然气指数（882201.WI）涨0.93%，表 明投资者对能源安全和地缘风险下的资源需求预期增强。 6月19日，A股市场延续弱势，三大主要指数集体下行。截至收盘，上证指数跌0.79%报 3362.11点，深证成指跌1.21%报10051.97点，创业板指跌1.36%报2026.82点，万得全A 跌1.2%报5103.13点。全市场成交额达1.28万亿元，超4600只个股下跌，仅716只个股上 涨，市场情绪偏冷。 板块表现：避险 +高低切，军工、机器人逆势上涨 尽管整体市场承压，但部分板块逆势上扬，如避险属性的军工板块， 板块内多只个股涨幅居 前，例如中兵红箭涨 3.88%，长城军工涨10.02%，北方长龙涨20.01%，显示出军工板块在 地缘 冲 ...

宏观面 在全球金融市场，黄金 "避险之王" 属性凸显，于地缘政治与经济不确定性冲击下探底回升。周二金价触 3366.07 美元低点后反弹至 3388.39 美元附近，K 线 呈十字星，白银价格也飙升至 2012 年来新高。 从多周期分析，首先观察月线节奏，价格在5月份正如笔者所言按照节奏运行，并且最终十字状态，对于6月份重点关注5月高低点得失表现，价格只有真正 收盘在此位置上方才属于真正破位，长线分水岭于2780位置。从周线级别来分析，黄金价格受撑于3255-60区域的支撑位。那么从中线角度来看，目前依旧 维持在中线多头中，价格只有下破周线支撑会进一步承压。从日线级别观察，价格在上周三再度突破日线阻力，在突破后持续飙升，价格刺破月线高点后快 速承压回到区间，同时日线大阴，后续关注进一步震荡承压为主，下方日线分水岭于3360区域，价格一旦下破日线分水岭则将打开波段承压。同时按照四小 时级别看，随着时间的推移今日早盘高点位置就是关键阻力，价格在此位位置之下持续看承压。同时按照一小时上看价格目前也是属于偏空，所以后续等待 价格进步承压表现。 欧美 中东局势是金价反弹主因。以色列与伊朗冲突持续，美国军事介入加剧，避险 ...

Market Overview - The equity market showed significant recovery on June 16, driven by the "buying on dips" mentality and expectations of incremental policies, with technology, real estate, and financial sectors leading the gains [1] - Major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 500 rose by 0.35%, 0.25%, and 0.23% respectively, while smaller cap indices performed better, with the Wande Micro Cap Index and CSI 1000 increasing by 1.43% and 0.68% respectively [1] - The bond market saw a mixed performance, with short-term rates strengthening due to central bank support, while long-term rates remained volatile [1][4] International Context - The conflict between Israel and Iran has become a global focus, with markets pricing in that the war will not significantly escalate, leading to a decline in gold prices [2] - Economic data from May indicated pressure on the real estate sector, with new and second-hand home prices declining across major cities, prompting expectations for policy support [2][6] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank continued to inject liquidity, with a net injection of 68.2 billion yuan on the first day of the tax period, leading to a decrease in overnight rates [3] - The stability in liquidity has kept the issuance rates of certificates of deposit steady, with rates for major banks remaining in the range of 1.62%-1.69% [3][4] Sector Performance - The technology sector showed strong performance, with significant gains in media, communication, and computer industries, rising by 2.70%, 2.11%, and 1.99% respectively [5][6] - The real estate sector also performed well, with the SW Real Estate Index increasing by 1.85% due to positive policy signals aimed at stabilizing the market [6][8] - The banking and non-banking financial sectors saw gains of 1.32% and 1.09%, respectively, reflecting investor optimism regarding upcoming policy announcements [6] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the market's recovery momentum is strong, with expectations for policy support playing a crucial role in the rebound [8] - It is recommended to look for investment opportunities in sectors with low valuations and strong fundamentals, such as electronics and utilities, particularly in the context of ongoing technology narratives and potential domestic replacements due to international sanctions [8]

Key Points - The report emphasizes a cautious investment strategy focusing on stability amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [1][2] - Recent events include US-China trade talks in London, disappointing US CPI data, and escalating conflicts in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel [1][8] - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance at 3400 points, while sectors like new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and precious metals demonstrated resilience [1][8] Weekly Event Review - The US-China trade discussions did not yield substantial agreements, indicating a prolonged negotiation period on tariffs and export controls [2][9] - The US CPI for May rose by 2.4%, below expectations, while non-farm employment increased by 139,000, suggesting a mixed economic outlook [9] - The military conflict between Iran and Israel intensified, with significant airstrikes and retaliatory actions, raising concerns over regional stability [9] Trading Data - The report notes an increase in average daily trading volume to 1.37 trillion yuan during the week [1][8] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with strong defensive characteristics and stable earnings, particularly: - **Gold**: Driven by geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns, gold prices have surged, breaking through $3,400 per ounce [3][17] - **Banking Sector**: The banking sector is viewed as a stable investment due to resilient earnings and attractive dividends, providing a safe haven for investors [3][18] - **Hydropower**: The hydropower sector is highlighted for its stable cost structure and consistent cash flow, making it a preferred choice for risk-averse investors [3][18]

Core Viewpoint - The current Middle East tensions are redefining the concept of "safe haven" in the markets, with oil prices soaring and stock markets declining, while traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries are being sold off [1][6]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Oil prices have surged significantly, impacting foreign exchange markets, where traditional safe-haven currencies have underperformed [2][3]. - The initial reaction saw the U.S. dollar rise, reflecting traditional safe-haven behavior, but this was reversed during the New York trading session as stock markets rebounded [2]. Group 2: Currency Performance - Traditional safe-haven currencies, such as the Japanese yen and Swiss franc, have weakened against the U.S. dollar, showing a strong negative correlation with Brent crude oil prices [3]. - Oil-related currencies like the Norwegian krone and Canadian dollar have performed well, aligning with their sensitivity to oil price movements [3]. - Other currencies displayed mixed performance, with the Swedish krona and New Zealand dollar underperforming, while the euro depreciated moderately, maintaining above 1.15 against the dollar [3]. Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market has reacted unexpectedly, with significant sell-offs in global core sovereign bonds rather than the anticipated inflow of "safe haven" funds [3]. - The rise in actual interest rates was largely influenced by better-than-expected U.S. sentiment data, contributing to the increase in rates [3]. - Rising oil prices have led to increased inflation expectations, with the U.S. 10-year breakeven rising by 2 basis points and real yields increasing by 5 basis points [3]. Group 4: Changing Safe Haven Logic - The dynamics in the U.S. Treasury market are shifting due to concerns over fiscal and inflation risks, as well as expectations of increased supply [4][6]. - The weakening of the safe-haven status of U.S. Treasuries is attributed to inflation worries and rising sovereign debt supply [6]. - Unless there is clear evidence that geopolitical tensions will lead to global growth slowdown or reduced inflation, U.S. Treasuries may take longer to regain their traditional safe-haven qualities [6].

Group 1 - The recent attack by Israel on Iran has led to a significant increase in Brent crude oil futures, which initially surged by 13% and closed up 8.39% at around $75, indicating a volatile market response to geopolitical tensions [1] - Despite the initial spike in oil prices, the likelihood of prices exceeding $100 in the short term is considered low, reflecting a change in market sentiment towards geopolitical events [1] - The military sector, similar to past trends in the A-share market, has shown a muted response, with military ETFs only rising by 1.44%, suggesting that the market has become more discerning regarding such events [1] Group 2 - In the context of global risks, the A-share market is viewed as an opportunity, with domestic stability making it an attractive option for investors seeking refuge from volatility [3] - The A-share index fell by 0.75%, which is less than the declines seen in U.S. markets, indicating a relative strength and potential for capital inflow into Chinese assets [3] - Technical indicators for the A-share market suggest a potential upward breakout, contingent on positive market news and collective investor sentiment [3][4] Group 3 - The Hong Kong market is currently strong, but its ability to reach new highs is uncertain, while the A-share market, despite appearing weaker, is positioned at a lower level, which may present a comparative advantage [4]

每经记者｜肖芮冬 每经编辑｜赵云 6 月 13 日，市场全天震荡调整，创业板指、深成指均跌超 1% 。截至收盘，沪指跌 0.75% ，深成指跌 1.10% ，创业 板指跌 1.13% 。 板块方面，贵金属、石油石化、核污染防治、军工等板块涨幅居前，美容护理、影视、 IP 经济、多元金融等板 块跌幅居前。 全市场超 4400 只个股下跌。沪深两市全天成交 1.47 万亿元，较上个交易日放量 1955 亿元。 常在股市走，总会遇到"黑天鹅"，比如今天。 从早上传出"以色列突袭伊朗"的消息开始，市场就注定不平静。 如果你的账户在突如其来的利空影响下，出现明显浮亏，首先要放宽心。 毕竟对于地缘政治冲突扰动，多数资金的第一反应都是两个字：避险。 同时，也不必过度紧张。因为恐慌总会平静下来，给市场多一点时间，那些因"错杀"而超跌的板块/个股，也 有较大概率修复。 基于此，我们来整体回顾今天的盘面。 油气、军工、贵金属逆势领涨 同花顺数据显示，在行业指数中，今天涨幅榜前三名分别是： 油气开采及服务、贵金属和军工。 | Q | 名称 | 涨幅961 | 5日涨幅% | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

智通财经APP获悉，由于美元走弱和地缘政治不确定性，黄金和原油延续涨势。金价周一飙升2.8%，接近每盎司3390 美元。布伦特原油价格周一上涨2.9%，目前接近每桶65美元，WTI原油价格在每桶63美元左右。 受美元走弱和地缘政治不确定性影响，油价延续涨势 避险情绪支撑黄金走高 金价在创下四周最大单日涨幅后小幅走高。金价周一飙升2.8%，接近每盎司3390美元。中国指责美国违反了两国最近 达成的贸易协议，并誓言将采取措施捍卫自己的利益。与此同时，欧盟再次发出警告，如果美国总统特朗普兑现其关 税威胁，欧盟将采取反制措施。 最新的贸易谈判进展打击了人们对美国与两大贸易伙伴达成协议的乐观预期。美元跌至2023年以来的最低水平，反映 出人们对特朗普政策及其对经济影响的担忧日益加剧。华尔街银行强化了对美元将进一步下跌的预期。 这些因素凸显了黄金的避险吸引力。自4月金价触及每盎司3500美元上方的纪录高位以来，这种吸引力已有所减弱。尽 管如此，黄金今年迄今仍上涨逾四分之一，高盛集团上周表示，黄金将继续作为长期投资组合中的通胀对冲工具，与 石油一样。 截至发稿，现货黄金上涨0.2%，至每盎司3389.61美元。彭博美元现货 ...