Core Viewpoint - Recent financial policies introduced by regulatory authorities signal strong support for stabilizing the market and expectations, with a focus on increasing funding to the real economy and enhancing credit support for small and medium-sized enterprises [1] Financial Policy Measures - The People's Bank of China has reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, lowered the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, and decreased the rates on structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points [1] - These measures aim to expand the scale of funds directed by financial institutions to the real economy, reduce financing costs for enterprises, and improve the stability of their production and operations [1]

1、上海市委金融办常务副主任周小全在发布会上透露，2025陆家嘴论坛期间，中央金融管理部门将发 布若干重大金融政策。 2、据"海关发布"公众号消息，5月28日，中方应约在北京同日方就日本水产品安全问题进行新一轮技术 交流，取得实质性进展。今年以来，双方进行了多轮技术交流。 智通财经5月30日午间新闻精选 4、港股午间收盘，恒生指数跌1.48%，恒生科技指数跌2.55%。 3、市场早盘震荡调整，创业板指领跌。沪深两市半日成交额7547亿，较上个交易日放量110亿。截至收 盘，沪指跌0.31%，深成指跌0.75%，创业板指跌0.88%。 ...

在LPR（贷款市场报价利率）趋势性下行的情况下，广州却逆势上调？本周末，一则"广州房贷利率上 浮10个基点"的消息在社交媒体引发热议，许多购房者担心利率上涨将抬高月供。 对此，有贷款中介表示："暂时没有接到确定信息，这个消息是在周五晚上传开的，我们也同步问了银 行的人，他们表示没有收到官方通知，可能下周一才会知道。" 另据《广州日报》报道，从部分银行及房产中介获悉，5月17日起，广州地区银行首套房贷利率从原来 的LPR-60bp调整为LPR-50bp，即五年期以上首套房贷利率涨10BP，由原来的3.0%上调到3.1%。有市场 人士表示，此举或是为了遵守房贷利率3.0%的下限。 值得关注的是，4月，1年期LPR为3.10%，5年期以上LPR为3.60%。 【此前报道：】最新LPR将于5月20 日出炉。市场预期，即将公布的LPR有望下调10个基点。这意味着5年期LPR可能从现行的3.6%降至 3.5%。 可以预见，随着一揽子金融政策落地见效，丰富的政策工具将进一步助力经济回升向好，持续激发经济 发展的内生动力和创新活力。 北京市互联网金融行业协会会长许泽玮表示， 虽然短期LPR调整空间有限，但从中长期来看，随着市 ...

回顾:央行昨日开展了645亿元7天期逆回购操作,当日1586亿元逆回购和 1250亿元MLF到期,据此计算,单日全口径净回笼2191亿元。 热评:周五央行公开市场将有770亿元逆回购到期。5月7日举行的国新办 新闻发布会上,中国人民银行、国家金融监督管理总局、中国证券监督管 理委员会负责人介绍"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有关情况,并 答记者问。发布会上,中国人民银行行长潘功胜公布了央行将降准0.5个百 分点、降低政策利率0.1个百分点、降低个人住房公积金房贷利率25bp、降 低结构性货币政策工具利率25bp、增加3000亿元技术创新再贷款额度、设 立5000亿元养老再贷款额度、增加3000亿元支农支小再贷款额度等举措。 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/5/16 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 (bp) | 品种 | 收 ...

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-05-15 4 月关税冲击影响，待 5 月一揽子政策 ——中国金融系列十三 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 宏观事件 5 月 14 日，央行发布 2025 年 4 月金融统计数据。数据显示：2025 年 1-4 月社融规模增 量为 16.34 万亿(15.18 万亿 )，比去年同期多 3.61 万亿( 多 2.37 万亿 )；4 月 M2 余额 325.17 万 亿(326.06 万亿 )，同比+8%(+7%)；M1 余额 109.14 万亿(113.49 万亿 )，同比+1.5%(+1.6%)。4 月末人民币贷款余额同比+7.2%(+7.4%)，存款余额同比+8%(+6.7%) *。 * 括号内为前值，数据来源：人民银行。 核心观点 ■ 4 月谨慎 负债端：M1/M2 剪刀差扩张。1）4 月 M1 改善低预期（3 月+1.6%；4 月+1.5%），2024 年防空转的低基数下扩张有限；M2 增速小幅回升（由+7.0%回升至+8.0%），表现为非 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Core Viewpoints - Financial data is positive, supporting the real economy [1] - Short - term focus is on economic fact verification, and attention should be paid to global trade policy games [2][3] - The US May FOMC meeting maintained the target interest rate, and inflation pressure has further eased [4] - For commodities, pay attention to the transmission of fundamentals in the follow - up and stagflation allocation in the long - term [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On May 7, "One Bank, One Administration, and One Commission" introduced a package of financial policies to boost the economy. The central bank launched ten monetary policy measures in three major categories, including a 0.5 - percentage - point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 0.1 - percentage - point policy interest rate cut [2] - In April, China's exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. Exports to the US decreased by 21%, while those to ASEAN increased by 20.8%. Labor - intensive product exports were significantly impacted [2] - From January to April 2025, the incremental social financing scale increased, indicating greater financial support for the real economy [2] - The China - US Geneva economic and trade talks achieved substantial progress. China reduced the tariff rate on US - imported goods from 34% to 10% and suspended 24% of additional tariffs for 90 days [2] - On May 14, the A - share market fluctuated upward, and sectors such as large - scale finance led the Shanghai Composite Index to regain 3,400 points [2] Global Trade Policy - On May 8, the UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade terms, with a "tax rate + volume" restriction approach. This may impact global trade, and negotiations with other countries are still ongoing [3] - India countered the Trump tariff policy by imposing tariffs on some US products [3] - Based on the 2018 - 2019 situation, if the weighted average import tariff rate is adjusted downward, the expected upward pressure on long - term inflation will also be reduced [3] US Interest Rate Policy - The US May FOMC meeting statement maintained the target interest rate. Economic prospects are more uncertain, and the risks of rising unemployment and inflation have increased [4] - The US April CPI data in May was lower than expected, indicating further alleviation of inflation pressure, but the impact of tariffs has not fully reached the consumer end [4] Commodity Market - From the 2018 tariff review, the tariff increase event first led to a decline in demand trading and then an increase in inflation trading. Industrial products need to be vigilant against the emotional impact of US stock adjustments, while agricultural products are more likely to have upward price fluctuations [5] - China has stopped purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid - January and increased purchases from Brazil [5] - Crude oil prices have declined, and OPEC + plans to increase production in June and may continue in July, with a relatively loose medium - term supply [5] - Due to policy uncertainties and trade policy games, there is a risk of a short - term correction in gold [5] Strategy - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral, waiting for fundamental verification [6] Important News - From January to April 2025, the cumulative incremental social financing scale was 16.34 trillion yuan, 3.61 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [8] - Starting from 12:01 on May 14, China adjusted the tariff increase measures on US - imported goods, reducing the tariff rate from 34% to 10% and suspending 24% of additional tariffs for 90 days [9] - The State Council issued the "Legislative Work Plan for 2025", including drafts of the National Development Planning Law, the Financial Law, and revisions to the Tendering and Bidding Law [9]

Core Insights - The financial statistics for April indicate a stable credit environment, with a total loan balance of 265.7 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is expected to maintain a steady growth in financial volume, supported by a recent policy package that includes a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement ratio cut [1][2] Group 1: Credit Allocation - Over 90% of new loans in the first four months were directed towards enterprises, with long-term loans accounting for over 60% of this amount, providing strong support for investment and production [3] - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 34.31 trillion yuan, growing by 11.9% year-on-year, while medium to long-term loans in the manufacturing sector increased by 8.5% [3][4] - The proportion of loans to small and micro enterprises has risen from 31% to 38% since 2021, indicating a shift in credit allocation towards smaller businesses [4] Group 2: Interest Rates and Financing Costs - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in April was approximately 3.2%, down about 50 basis points from the previous year, while the rate for personal housing loans was around 3.1%, down 55 basis points [4] - A recent policy rate cut of 0.1 percentage points is expected to further lower the loan market quotation rate (LPR) by a similar margin, reducing the financial burden on both enterprises and residents [7] Group 3: Broader Financing Landscape - As of April, the balance of corporate bonds increased by 3.2% year-on-year, reflecting a more balanced development between the bond and credit markets [8] - The introduction of technology innovation bonds in the bond market is anticipated to channel more funds into the technology sector, enhancing direct financing growth [8]

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周二，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3200 元/吨，较前一 日持平，10 合约基差 121（+3）。宏观政策方面，5 月 7 日，三部门发 布一揽子金融政策稳市场稳预期，货币政策利多落地，不过市场仍在期 待财政政策发力，中美会谈成果超预期，双方大幅互降关税，市场预期 改善；产业方面，上周螺纹钢产量、表需双降，库存小幅累积，供需格局 有转差迹象，当然也有五一假期因素影响，需求是否已经开始季节性回 落还需进一步观察。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格仍低于电炉 谷电成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，中美贸易环境改 善，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现实供需尚 可，但需求仍面临季节性下滑压力，关注需求变化，低估值背景下，预计 价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周二，中美会谈成果营造良好预期，盘面向上回调。现货方面，青岛港 PB 粉 765 元/湿吨（-5）。普氏 62%指数 101.25 美元/吨（+2.65）， 月均 98.86 美元/吨。PBF 基差 95 元/吨（-1）。供给端：最新澳洲巴西 ...

股指期货全景日报 2025/5/13 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 IF主力合约（2506） | 最新 3851.0 | 环比 数据指标 +1.4↑ IF次主力合约（2505） | 最新 3892.0 | 环比 +9.4↑ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IC主力合约（2506） | 5654.6 | -18.6↓ IC次主力合约（2505） | 5767.2 | -6.6↓ | | | IH主力合约（2506） | 2688.2 | +2.8↑ IH次主力合约（2505） | 2708.6 | +6.4↑ | | | IM主力合约（2506） | 5996.6 | -25.6↓ IM次主力合约（2505） | 6126.8 | -10.4↓ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1183.4 | +2.2↑ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1875.2 | -25.8↓ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 359.6 | -6.0↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 3058.6 | -23.6↓ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 2234. ...

证券研究报告·政策动态 【中信建投政策研究】国务院召开"一揽子金融政策支持稳 市场稳预期"新闻发布会，中美经贸沟通正式重启（2025 年 5 月 5 日-5 月 11 日） 核心观点 本周重点关注三方面政策：（1）国务院召开"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场 稳预期"新闻发布会，预计此次政策组合拳能有效对冲关税冲击。降准降 息及再贷款等举措，增强企业资金流动性，助力受关税影响企业拓展新兴 市场、转型内销；监管部门各领域协同发力，稳定市场预期，多维度提升 企业抵御关税风险的能力。（2）中美经贸沟通正式重启，会谈达成实质 性成果，超出市场普遍预期。缓解中美间产业链和物流成本压力，提振企 业预期及全球市场风险偏好。（3）英美达成自特朗普启动全球关税攻势 以来首份贸易框架协议，市场风险偏好阶段性提振。然而由于英美贸易关 系的特殊性，该协议难以成为其他国家可广泛参照的典型范本。 摘要 1、国务院召开"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"新闻发布会 简评：人民银行发布数量型政策、价格型政策、结构型政策三大类政 策，宣布通过降准、降息、再贷款、再贴现等数量型与价格型工具释放逾 万亿元流动性，政策组合体现出"总量宽松+结构定向"协同发力 ...