Core Viewpoint - The financial data for June indicates an improvement in credit and monetary supply, with new credit and social financing exceeding market expectations, suggesting potential support for the "anti-involution" policy [1][3][14]. Group 1: Credit and Social Financing - In June, new credit reached 2.24 trillion yuan, an increase of 110 billion yuan compared to the same month last year, surpassing market expectations [3]. - The government bond issuance continued to increase year-on-year, with 1.35 trillion yuan in new government bonds issued in June, up by 503.2 billion yuan from the previous year [3]. - The stock of social financing saw a year-on-year growth rate rise from 8.7% in May to 8.9% in June, driven by government bonds and credit [3]. Group 2: Monetary Supply - M1's year-on-year growth rate increased from 2.3% in May to 4.6% in June, while M2's growth rate rose from 7.9% to 8.3% during the same period [3][14]. - The increase in M1 and M2 suggests a potential for further improvement in the third quarter, with M1 expected to show the most significant growth [14]. Group 3: Short-term Loans and Economic Implications - The new short-term loans for enterprises reached a record high of 1.16 trillion yuan in June, indicating a significant rise in corporate financing [9][10]. - The sustainability of this increase in short-term loans is crucial for understanding future macroeconomic trends, with potential implications for debt repayment and internal demand recovery [12]. - The commitment from major automotive companies to reduce supplier payment terms to no more than 60 days highlights the focus on improving cash flow and reducing accounts payable [12]. Group 4: Fiscal Policy and Economic Support - Fiscal deposits decreased by 820 billion yuan in June, but the year-on-year growth rate of fiscal deposits rose to 23.9%, indicating that fiscal policy still has room to support growth and monetary supply [13]. - The potential release of funds from fiscal deposits could boost M2 growth by 0.2-0.3 percentage points if the growth rate returns to normal levels [13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [1][25]. Core Insights - The report highlights that government bonds are supporting the increase in social financing, with a notable year-on-year increase in social financing of 22.47 billion yuan in May [2][3]. - The report suggests focusing on the investment value of bank stocks, particularly recommending China Merchants Bank, Agricultural Bank of China, and Jiangsu Bank [2]. Summary by Sections Financial Data Overview - In May, the total new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 330 billion yuan. The increase in short-term loans for enterprises improved, while medium to long-term loans still require improvement [2][4]. - The social financing increment for May was 2.29 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, primarily driven by government bonds [2][3]. Government Bonds and Corporate Financing - The net financing of government bonds in May reached 1.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 231.9 billion yuan. Direct financing for enterprises increased by 164.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 125.2 billion yuan [3]. - The report indicates that the demand for medium to long-term credit from enterprises remains insufficient, with a total of 5.3 trillion yuan in new loans for enterprises in May, a year-on-year decrease of 210 billion yuan [4]. Monetary Supply Trends - The M2 growth rate was 7.9%, while M1 growth rate was 2.3%, showing a slight decrease in M2 and an increase in M1 compared to the previous month [5]. - In May, the total RMB deposits increased by 2.18 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 500 billion yuan, with a notable increase in fiscal deposits [5].

Summary of Financial Data for May 2025 Industry Overview - The financial data for May 2025 indicates a significant impact from government financing, particularly through special treasury bonds and local government bonds, which have contributed notably to social financing [1][3]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Government Financing Support**: Government financing remains a primary support for social financing, with special treasury bonds and local government bonds providing strong backing. The fiscal expenditure has been more robust compared to the same period in previous years [3]. 2. **Short-term Loans Increase**: There has been a year-on-year increase in short-term loans for enterprises, likely due to heightened short-term funding needs following tariff relaxations. This trend mirrors data from March 2025 [2][4]. 3. **Corporate Bond Financing Growth**: The issuance of technology innovation bonds has driven an increase in corporate bond financing, indicating a positive trend in this area [2][4]. 4. **Weakness in Medium to Long-term Loans**: Despite the increase in short-term loans, medium to long-term loans for enterprises remain low, reflecting a weak investment sentiment among businesses due to uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [2][4]. 5. **Non-bank Deposit Growth**: Non-bank deposits have continued to show high growth, potentially due to a shift of private sector deposits towards wealth management and other non-bank assets following a reduction in deposit rates [2][5]. 6. **M1 Growth Recovery**: The M1 money supply has seen a rebound in growth, driven by an increase in corporate demand deposits, aligning with the rise in short-term loans [2][5]. 7. **Concerns Over Deposit Trends**: The trend of converting current deposits into fixed-term deposits among government agencies has not shown significant improvement, which may affect future government procurement activities [2][5]. Additional Important Insights - The overall performance of financial data in May 2025 exceeded expectations, with the new social financing scale surpassing forecasts. Although new RMB loans were slightly below expectations, the actual performance, excluding bill financing, was still strong [2][6]. - The sustained high level of fund inflows from non-bank institutions has provided considerable support to the market, contributing to the positive overall financial data for the month [6].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The financial data in May is reasonably matched with the real - economy operation. The growth rates of social financing scale, M2, and RMB loans are significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, and the support for the real economy remains stable. Fiscal and industrial policies are more proactive, forming a stronger synergy with monetary policy to promote the continuous recovery of the economy [2]. - The CSRC has announced the "Regulations on the Administration of Programmed Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)", which will be implemented from October 9, 2025. The futures exchange will implement key management of high - frequency trading [2]. - Due to the complex international situation and large market fluctuations, the SHFE has reminded relevant units to take measures to prompt investors to prevent risks and invest rationally [2]. - The nuclear talks between Iran and the US that were originally scheduled to be held in Oman have been indefinitely postponed [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot News - **Financial Data**: In May, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale was 8.7%, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 balance was 7.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M1 balance was 2.3%. In the first five months, the incremental social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, and RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan [2]. - **Futures Regulations**: The CSRC announced the "Regulations on the Administration of Programmed Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)" to be implemented on October 9, 2025, with key management of high - frequency trading [2]. - **Market Risk Warning**: The SHFE reminded relevant units to prompt investors to prevent risks due to complex international situations and large market fluctuations [2]. - **Steel Mill Data**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.36 percentage points from last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.58%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.05 percentage points from last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from last week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points from last year; the daily average pig iron output was 241.61 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons from last week [3]. - **International Event**: Iran's nuclear talks with the US have been indefinitely postponed after Israel's air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and military bases [3]. Key Focus - **Focus Commodities**: Urea, crude oil, rebar, lithium carbonate, and PVC [4]. Night - Session Performance - **Sector Performance**: Non - metallic building materials increased by 2.51%, precious metals by 30.86%, energy by 2.86%, chemicals by 12.93%, grains by 1.40%, agricultural and sideline products by 2.56%, oilseeds and oils by 11.49%, soft commodities by 2.70%, non - ferrous metals by 19.66%, and coal - coking - steel - ore by 13.03% [4][5]. Major Asset Performance | Asset Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.75 | 0.88 | 0.75 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.55 | - 0.08 | - 0.31 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.72 | 0.62 | - 1.80 | | | CSI 500 | - 1.03 | 1.22 | 0.25 | | | S&P 500 | - 1.13 | 1.10 | 1.62 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.59 | 2.59 | 19.11 | | | German DAX | - 1.07 | - 2.01 | 18.12 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.89 | - 0.34 | - 5.16 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.39 | 0.89 | 8.29 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.02 | 0.27 | 0.09 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.04 | 0.15 | - 0.34 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.03 | 0.07 | - 0.50 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | 4.25 | 2.04 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 8.39 | 21.44 | 2.54 | | | London Spot Gold | 1.40 | 4.40 | 30.84 | | | LME Copper | - 0.56 | 1.58 | 9.86 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.40 | 2.65 | 18.08 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.29 | - 1.30 | - 9.53 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 15.54 | 12.12 | 20.00 | [7]

[T报ab告le_日Ra期nk：] 2025 年 6 月 16 日 周度报告——商品期货 商品风格轮动周报： 地缘冲突驱动市场重回避险交易 2025 年 6 月 13 日当周，涨幅靠前品种集中于能源品，跌幅靠前 品种集中于有色金属及建材链。 ★风格轮动及品种间相对估值表现 周内，周期/成长风格轮动至空配成长；工业品/农产品风格轮 动至多配南华工业品；贵金属/工业品风格轮动至多配南华工业 品；金/油比价轮动至多配油。 吴梦[Ta吟ble_A资na深ly分se析r] 师（商品策略） 从业资格号：F03089475 投资咨询号：Z0016707 Tel: 8621-63325888 Email: mengyin.wu@orientfutures.com [Table_Summary] ★商品市场概述 商 品 期 周内套利对表现相对最强的三个头寸分别为：PP-3*MA 主力合 约价差、L-PP 主力合约价差、菜油-棕榈油主力合约价差；周内 套利对表现相对最弱的三个头寸分别为：铜油主力合约比价、 P/SC 主力合约比价、Y/SC 主力合约比价。 货 海外方面，海外方面，周初市场持续计价中美贸易局势缓和， 中东地缘冲突再 ...

Group 1: Monetary Supply and Growth - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 108.91 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) was 13.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [1] - In the first five months, a net cash injection of 306.4 billion yuan was recorded [1] Group 2: Social Financing and Loans - The total social financing scale increased by 18.63 trillion yuan in the first five months, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2] - The balance of loans to the real economy reached 262.86 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7% [3] - In the first five months, RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan, with household loans rising by 572.4 billion yuan and corporate loans increasing by 9.8 trillion yuan [4] Group 3: Deposits and Financial Market Rates - The total RMB deposits increased by 14.73 trillion yuan in the first five months, with household deposits rising by 8.3 trillion yuan [5] - The weighted average interbank lending rate in May was 1.55%, down 0.3 percentage points from the same period last year [6] - The loan market quotation rate for one-year loans was 3.00%, and for loans over five years, it was 3.50%, both lower by 0.1 percentage points compared to the end of last year [7] Group 4: Currency Exchange Rates - As of the end of May, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index was 95.96, down 5.43% from the end of last year [8] - The RMB to USD exchange rate was 7.1848, appreciating by 0.05% compared to the end of last year, while the RMB depreciated against the Euro and Yen by 7.80% and 7.28% respectively [8]

Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a decline on Friday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.75%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 1.1%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 1.13%. The total market turnover reached 15,039 billion yuan, an increase of 2,000 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 4,400 stocks declining. Sectors such as oil and gas, precious metals, nuclear pollution prevention, and military industries saw gains, while the consumer sector faced losses [3][7]. Important News - The People's Bank of China released financial data for May 2025. As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9%. The narrow money supply (M1) was 108.91 trillion yuan, up by 2.3% year-on-year. The currency in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. In the first five months, a net cash injection of 306.4 billion yuan was recorded, and the cumulative increase in social financing for the same period reached 18.63 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [4][8].

文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 文若愚（微信 LRsuperdope） 事项 2025 年 5 月，新增社融 2.29 万亿（前值 1.16 万亿），新增人民币贷款 6200 亿（前值 2800 亿）。社融 存量同比增长 8.7% （前值 8.7% ）， M2 同比增长 7.9% （前值 8% ），新口径 M1 同比增长 2.3% （前 值 1.5% ）。 核心观点 1 、在海外关税政策不确定性的影响下， 4 月和 5 月企业存款回落，企业现金流或承受一定程度的冲击。 2 、但在国内稳定资本市场政策的确定性的影响下，新增非银存款持续抬升， 4 月 5 月非银存款新增规模 是 2016 年以来同期最高值。 3 、政府层面，政府加速发债的背景下，新增存款规模相对偏慢，从这个视角来看政府债的下拨也相对偏 快，不过要关注后续政府债接近发行规模后的续航问题。 4 、从领先指标来看，企业居民存款剪刀差自 2024 年 9 月以来仍在持续改善，外部环境的不确定性并未打 破这一趋势，这或许意味着国内政策的确定性当下或是影响经济循环行为更重要的变量。 报 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月15日 ETF 周报 本周医药 ETF 领涨，资金净赎回超 25 亿元 核心观点 金融工程周报 ETF 业绩表现 上周（2025 年 06 月 09 日至 2025 年 06 月 13 日，下同）股票型 ETF 周度 收益率中位数为-0.14%。宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.31%，收益最高。按板块划分，大金融 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 0.84%，收益 最高。按主题进行分类，医药 ETF 涨跌幅中位数为 1.32%，收益最高。 ETF 规模变动及净申赎 上周股票型 ETF 净赎回 172.27 亿元，总体规模减少 275.83 亿元。在宽基 ETF 中，上周科创板 ETF 净申购最多，为 5.30 亿元；按板块来看，周期 ETF 净申购最多，为 12.47 亿元；按热点主题来看，芯片 ETF 净申购最多， 为 17.96 亿元。 ETF 基准指数估值情况 在宽基 ETF 中，创业板类 ETF 的估值分位数相对较低；按板块来看，消费 ETF 的估值分位数相对温和；按照细分主题来看，酒、光伏 ETF 的估值分 位数相对较低。与前周相比，周期、新能车、A5 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In May 2025, new social financing (社融) reached 2.29 trillion RMB, up from 1.16 trillion RMB in the previous period[1] - New RMB loans amounted to 620 billion RMB, an increase from 280 billion RMB previously[1] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock remained at 8.7%, consistent with the previous value[1] - M2 money supply grew by 7.9% year-on-year, slightly up from 8% previously[1] - New M1, under the new calculation, increased by 2.3% year-on-year, compared to 1.5% previously[1] Group 2: Deposit Trends - Non-bank deposits increased significantly, with a new scale of approximately 2.8 trillion RMB in April and May, the highest since 2016[7] - Corporate deposits fell by about 1.7 trillion RMB in April and May, indicating a potential cash flow impact due to external uncertainties[4] - The proportion of new household deposits and cash in M2 has been decreasing, suggesting a gradual "unfreezing" of liquidity[3] - The government accelerated bond issuance, with a net expenditure of approximately 1.1 trillion RMB in April and May, significantly higher than the average of 0.1 trillion RMB from 2017 to 2024[8] Group 3: Economic Implications - The improvement in the corporate-resident deposit gap since September 2024 suggests that domestic policy certainty is a crucial variable influencing economic behavior[2] - The current trend indicates that while household liquidity is gradually being released, corporate cash flow remains weak, potentially affecting production capabilities[26] - The government’s proactive fiscal measures and the increase in non-bank deposits are expected to support ongoing economic recovery despite external uncertainties[26]