投资咨询系列报告 山金期货贵金属策略报告 更新时间：2025年07月10日16时34分 请务必阅读文后重要声明 第 1 页，共 4 页 投资咨询系列报告 一、黄金 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收涨0.49%，沪银主力收涨0.22%。①核心逻辑，短期贸易战进入新阶段，经济衰退地缘异动风险 仍存；美国经济滞涨风险增加，就业强劲压制降息预期。②避险属性方面，特朗普致函14国告知新关税，亲密盟友日韩被征25% 。将对铜征收50%的关税，对药品征收高达200%的关税。③货币属性方面，美联储会议记录显示7月降息支持率不高，仍担心关 税推高通胀。美国整体就业增长强于预期，抹杀美联储近期降息的可能性。目前市场预期美联储下次降息至9月，预期25年总降息 空间跌回50基点左右。美元指数和美债收益率承压回调；④商品属性方面，CRB商品指数反弹承压，人民币偏强压制国内价格。⑤ 预计贵金属短期震荡偏强，中期高位震荡，长期阶梯上行。 | 策略：稳健者观望，激进者高抛低吸。建议做好仓位管理，严格止损止盈。 | | --- | | 表1 黄金相关数据： | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/ ...

公司预计本期实现归属于本公司股东的净利润约85.61亿元，同比增长约101.92%，该净利润增速明显高 于2025年一季度，后者是同比增长89.1%。 药明康德预计本期实现归属于本公司股东的净利润约85.61亿元，同比增长约101.92%。 今年以来，药明康德（603259.SH、02359.HK）A股以及港股股价累计涨幅均超过三成。7月10日晚间， 公司也发布了2025年半年报业绩预告。 药明康德预计2025年半年度（以下简称"本期"）实现营业收入约207.99亿元，同比增长约20.64%， 其中 持续经营业务收入同比增长约24.24%。 药明康德半年报净利润增速表现抢眼背后，部分也得益于出售联营公司部分股权所获得的投资收益。 2025年上半年，药明康德出售持有的药明合联部分股票的收益，本期预计收益约32.1亿元。 如果扣除这些影响，公司预计本期实现经调整非《国际财务报告准则》下归属于本公司股东的净利润 （以下简称"经调整归母净利润"）约63.15亿元，同比增长约 44.43%。公司预计本期实现归属于本公司 股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润约55.82亿元， 同比增长约 26.47%，与经调整归母净利润增速相 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Non - farm data cooled the interest - rate cut trading significantly, and the macro mainline returned to Trump's tariff policy. Trump's administration's "apparently tough but actually soft" stance strengthened the TACO consensus, but Trump may not always "follow the rules", so the risk of TACO trading reversal should be watched, and attention should be paid to the progress of EU - US and China - US trade negotiations [1]. - The better - than - expected non - farm employment data in June showed that the US labor market remained resilient, and the sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates was not triggered, leading to a significant cooling of interest - rate cut trading. The trading mainline may return to Trump's tariff policy [12][15][16]. - After the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period, Trump's tariff policy was "apparently tough but actually soft", further strengthening the market's TACO trading consensus [20][22]. - In the third quarter, the macro trading mainline may revolve around TACO trading. The potential risk was that Trump might become tougher on tariff policy after domestic pressure eased, which could lead to a reversal of TACO trading [22][31]. - The next - stage macro trading mainline still revolved around Trump's tariff policy. There was a possibility of switching from TACO trading to interest - rate cut trading in September. Attention should be paid to the EU - US trade negotiations and the China - US trade negotiations after August 12 [4][32]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Third - Quarter Overseas Macro Mainline Recalibration 3.1.1 Non - farm Data and Interest - rate Cut Trading - The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than the market expectation, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, indicating the resilience of the US labor market. The government sector's employment increase supported the data, while the private sector's employment declined, showing some structural problems [12]. - Inflation was a necessary but not sufficient condition for the Fed to cut interest rates, while a significant weakening of the labor market was a sufficient condition. The good labor data in June likely closed the door for a July interest - rate cut, and interest - rate cut trading cooled [15][16]. 3.1.2 Trump's Tariff Policy - Before the expiration of the reciprocal tariff suspension period on July 9, Trump's administration adopted a "tough - and - soft" negotiation strategy. It sent tariff letters to 22 countries in two batches on July 7 and 9 [2][20]. - In terms of countries, the first two batches of letter - receiving countries were mainly Asian countries, with a "warning" meaning. In terms of tax rates, except for Brazil, only three countries had higher new tariff rates, and the increase was small. In terms of the implementation period, the new tariffs would be implemented on August 1, about three weeks later than the original plan [20][21]. - Trump's "apparently tough but actually soft" tariff policy strengthened the market's TACO trading consensus. After the letters were sent, the stock markets in Japan and South Korea showed a "bad news is good news" trend [22]. 3.1.3 Potential Risks of TACO Trading Reversal - Compared with April, Trump's domestic pressure had eased. The US financial market had recovered, and the "Great Beauty" bill had passed, which was a major victory for Trump [22][23][25]. - After the "Great Beauty" bill was passed, Trump's administration might shift its policy focus to tariffs to increase tariff revenue, promote re - industrialization, and strengthen the "victory narrative" for the 2026 mid - term elections [27]. - Trump's administration showed a tendency to weaponize tariff policy, such as significantly increasing the tariff rate on Brazil, which might lead to a reversal of TACO trading [29][31].

一、市场回顾 2025年6月，人民币汇率震荡前行，总体在7.1575至7.1986区间内震荡升值。全球主要经济体及国家继续降息，日债收益率下降但风险犹存，中国经济、消费 修复继续，国产通用处理器有重大突破，中国经济、社会走势相对平稳等是影响6月美元兑人民币汇率走势的主要因素。展望未来，中国经济、社会相对稳 定，特朗普的减税法案，以及全球多次持续的降息，增加了市场对美联储即将降息的预期，叠加近期美债、美股的上涨，阶段性利多美元指数，预计7月人 民币兑美元汇率或在7.10～7.25区间震荡升值。 2025年6月，人民币汇率震荡前行，总体在7.1575至7.1986区间内震荡升值。其中，人民币在岸汇率在7.1656至7.1895间波动；人民币中间价在7.1586至7.1886 间波动；人民币离岸汇率则是在7.1575至7.1986间波动。国际方面，第一，全球主要国家、经济体继续降息，降息潮利多人民币，但6月美英日维持利率不 变。当地时间6月5日，欧洲央行宣布将欧元区三大关键利率再分别下调25个基点，这是2024年6月以来欧洲央行的第八次降息；6月19日，瑞士央行宣布将政 策利率下调25个基点至0%，这是2024年3 ...

本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【6月国内PMI回升，国内外市场情绪向好】国内方面，6月我国制造业、非制造业和综合PMI分别为 49.7%、50.5%和50.7%，较上月上升0.2、0.2和0.3个百分点，三大指数回升，增长加快。 政策上，国内 消费政策刺激加强，中央强调治理企业低价无序竞争，短期提振国内风险偏好。国外市场回暖、人民币 汇率升值，国内市场情绪持续回暖。 近期市场聚焦国内增量刺激政策和贸易谈判进展，短期宏观向上 增强，后续关注中美贸易谈判和国内增量政策实施情况。 国际方面，美国6月ISM制造业PMI升至49， 高于预期；6月ISM非制造业指数50.8，略高于预期。就业数据向好，市场放弃7月美联储降息押注，9 月降息概率降至80%左右。 美联储多位官员释放提早降息信号，美国与越南达成贸易协议，与欧盟等 接近达成协议，贸易谈判进展良好。 短期美国增长加快、就业好于预期，美联储降息预期下降，美元 指数和美债收益率反弹，全球风险偏好升温。 结论显示，短期A股四大股指期货谨慎做多，商品和国债 谨慎观望，排序为股指>国债>商品。 债市外部风险缓和，通胀预期降低，债券价格短期高位偏 ...

Macro News - The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on July 9 that the Russian military conducted a cluster strike on Ukrainian military airport infrastructure, achieving all designated targets [1] - Ukraine's President Zelensky stated that Russia launched a new round of large-scale attacks on multiple Ukrainian cities, with a total of 741 aerial targets identified, most of which were intercepted [1] - The Ukrainian Armed Forces reported 112 battles on the front lines on the same day, successfully repelling Russian advances in multiple directions [1] Defense and Trade - The Trump administration has resumed the shipment of certain weapons to Ukraine, including 155mm artillery ammunition and precision-guided rockets, following a one-week pause [2] - President Trump announced a 50% tariff on all Brazilian products starting August 1, 2025, which Brazilian officials deemed unfair, emphasizing that Brazil is not a problem for the U.S. [2] - The precious metals market is experiencing price consolidation, with ongoing trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S. and new tariff threats from the Trump administration affecting market sentiment [2] - Recent U.S. economic data showed a non-farm payroll increase of 147,000 in June, surpassing market expectations, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, impacting interest rate expectations [2] - The market anticipates potential interest rate cuts starting in September, influenced by trade policy clarity and economic data trends [2]

关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、赵宇 联系人 | 赵宇 摘要 美国三大股指集体上涨，美债利率快速回升。 当周，标普500上涨1.6%，道琼斯工业指数上涨2.3%；10Y 美债收益率上行6.0bp至4.4%；美元指数下跌0.3%至96.99，离岸人民币升值至7.1701；WTI原油上涨1.5% 至66.5美元/桶，COMEX黄金上涨1.9%至3332.5美元/盎司。 关税豁免即将到期，警惕关税升级风险。 7月9日，美国进口商品的90天"关税暂停"即将到期。贝森特6月 27日接受采访时表示，约20个谈判进展缓慢的国家将可能被恢复4月2日的初始对等关税税率，只有被认 定"诚意协商"的伙伴才有望继续获得关税豁免延长。 美国6月非农数据强于市场预期，联储7月降息概率下降。 美国6月非农新增就业14.7万人，失业率回落至 4.1%，主要驱动力为州及地方政府就业增加。市场对联储7月降息预期降温，9月降息为基准假设。鲍威 尔在欧洲央行辛特拉论坛上发言，表示关税对通胀效果或在夏天显现。 风险提示 地缘政治冲突升级；美国经济放缓超预期；美联储超预期转"鹰" 报告正文 一、 大类资产&海外事件&数据： （一） ...

上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选黄金基金10元起投！限量发放！ 先到先得！ 数据还显示，今年上半年，全球所有地区的黄金ETF均出现资金流入，其中，在美国上市的黄 金ETF吸引了206.8吨的资金流入，创下了五年来最强劲的上半年表现；在亚洲上市的黄金ETF 则吸收了104.3吨。 "尽管5月和6月的势头有所放缓，但亚洲投资者在今年上半年购买了创纪录数量的黄金ETF，在 仅占全球管理总资产9%的情况下，为全球净流入量贡献了28%的惊人份额。"世界黄金协会称。 Choice数据显示，今年以来截至7月8日，多只境内黄金ETF也获得显著的资金净流入。具体来 看，华安易富黄金ETF份额增长33.33亿份，按照7.17元成交均价计算，获得约238.84亿元资金 净流入；国泰黄金ETF、易方达黄金ETF和博时黄金ETF均获得90亿元以上资金净流入。 作为上半年表现最佳的大类资产之一，黄金不仅价格持续走高，相关ETF也迎来巨量资金流 入。 世界黄金协会最新发布数据显示，今年1月至6月，全球黄金ETF"吸金"380亿美元，创下了自 2020年上半年以来的最大半年资金流入量。 上半年黄金ETF吸金380 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/10 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 2025/07/08 80 1048 84589 19109 -844.96 44.77 29.0 63.0 51.31 102500 37100 2025/07/09 60 502 84589 21336 -437.33 412.81 40.0 65.0 22.37 107125 38250 变化 -20 -546 0 ...

| SHENN | 贵金属日评20250710: 多数美联储官员担忧关税推升通胀,美国财政部发债节奏不及市场预期 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-07-09 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-08 | 收盘价 | 776. 22 | 781.28 | 766. 82 | -9. 40 | -14.46 | | | | | 成交量 | 187574.00 | 189582. 00 | 123, 264. 00 | 121, 256. 00 | 310838.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持包量 | 181258.00 | 179131.00 | 2, 127.00 | 5.797.00 | 175461.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 21558. 00 | 21585. 00 | 18456. 00 | 27.00 | 3, 1 ...