热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：降息预期减弱，铜价小幅回调 周四晚沪铜主力回调至10.3万元下沿，伦铜震荡收于13155美金附近。 宏观中性偏空。美国上周初请失业金人数降至19.8万人，显著低于市场预期，就业市场放缓，但美联储维持偏鹰立场，市场情绪降温。 基本面中性。昨日上期所铜仓单增加1.3万吨至16.3万吨，LME铜去库500吨至14.11万吨。国家电网预计十五五期间投资额有望达到4万亿，较十四五增长 40%。 总体来看，宏观情绪调整叠加海外关键矿产关税调查延期，获利了结盘或将对近期价格带来一定压力，但在节前下游备货需求支撑、原料紧张支撑下，铜价 回调空间或有限。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考10.1-10.35万元/吨。策略上，短线区间为主，等待低点布局远月多单。 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） ...

【环球网财经综合报道】北京时间1月16日凌晨，国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX黄金期货跌0.33%报4620.50 美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨0.90%报92.21美元/盎司。 分析人士认为，美联储官员释放鹰派信号，部分倾向维持高利率，叠加美国进口物价、零售销售等经济数据超预期， 增强加息预期，对黄金价格形成一定程度的压制。 越南通讯社发文称，1月15日，亚洲黄金和白银价格下跌，因投资者在前一交易日这两种贵金属创下历史新高后进行 获利了结。与此同时，现货白银价格在交易日早盘触及历史最高水平93.57美元/盎司后，大幅下跌3.4%，至89.63美元/ 盎司。上述情况发生在地缘政治紧张局势缓和的信号出现之后。 越南通讯社还提到，目前，市场正在等待美国每周初请失业救济金数据，以进一步了解美联储的货币政策路径。交易 员预计美联储今年将进行两次降息。低利率环境加上经济和地缘政治的不确定性，通常有利于无收益资产如黄金。 国内方面，截至1月14日，华安黄金ETF流通规模达到1007.62亿元，成为国内首只突破千亿的黄金ETF，并稳居亚洲最 大规模黄金ETF之位。 路透社也发文称，投资者在连续三天的大幅上涨后，获 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable surge in silver prices, which have increased significantly due to supply-demand imbalances, macroeconomic policies, and industrial demand, positioning silver as a key investment opportunity in the current market [2][8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has faced a structural shortage, with a projected supply gap of 3,700 tons by 2025, marking a ten-year high. This shortage is exacerbated by the fact that approximately 70-72% of silver is produced as a byproduct of mining other metals, making it difficult to increase silver production in the short term [10][11]. - Major silver-producing countries are experiencing production declines due to various factors, including political instability in Peru and sanctions affecting Russia, while new mining projects in Australia are insufficient to offset declines from older mines [10][11]. Industrial Demand and Macroeconomic Factors - Industrial demand for silver has exploded, with over 60% of silver consumption now coming from industrial applications, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to demand 0.61 million tons by 2025 [14]. - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has created a favorable backdrop for silver investments, driving down the holding costs of non-yielding assets like silver [15]. Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The market has seen a significant influx of investment, with net physical investment in silver projected to reach approximately 6,400 tons by 2025. This surge in interest has led to a dramatic increase in silver prices, with a notable 3.56% rise in a single day [17]. - There is a stark divide among institutional forecasts regarding silver prices, with optimistic projections suggesting a target of $100 per ounce in the near term, while more conservative views highlight potential volatility and profit-taking among investors [18]. Conclusion - The current silver market is characterized by a combination of strong fundamental support from supply-demand dynamics and industrial growth, alongside speculative investment behavior. Investors are advised to approach the market with caution, considering both the potential for high returns and the inherent volatility associated with silver investments [19].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责 任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 贵金属期货日报 2026/1/15 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1035.200 | -5.4↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 22665 | -98.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 93,276.00 | -7403.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 1,470.00 | +32.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 190,086.00 | -11001.00↓ ...

官员表态延续谨慎基调 政策取向强调数据依赖 来源：外汇百科堂 UNforex 1月15日讯美联储最新发布的《褐皮书》指出，美国经济在2025年末至2026年初阶段维持"轻微 至适度"的改善节奏。报告显示，整体经济运行保持平稳，劳动力市场韧性尚存，居民消费支出并未出 现明显走弱迹象。相关判断进一步增强了市场对美国经济实现"稳健软着陆"的信心，同时在边际上降低 了短期内大幅放松货币政策的紧迫性。 经济活动温和修复 区域层面未见衰退迹象 从区域调查结果来看，美联储对各地商业联系人的最新反馈显示，自去年11月中旬以来，美国多数地区 经济活动延续温和回升态势。报告认为，这一变化与近期公布的就业、通胀及消费数据相互印证，整体 经济尚未显现进入衰退周期的特征。在12个联储辖区中，有8个地区的就业状况基本保持稳定，薪资增 速处于"适度"区间，多位受访者表示，薪资增长幅度已回归至历史正常水平。整体而言，劳动力市场既 未明显过热，也未出现快速降温，仍符合软着陆所需的结构条件。 通胀回落趋势延续 成本压力开始局部显现 在通胀方面，褐皮书显示，多数地区价格水平继续以温和速度上行，并未出现重新加速的迹象。不过， 报告同时提到，随着此前 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-15 展望：彭博商品指数权重调整的阶段性扰动已消化，金银在流动性宽 松远期预期、顺周期交易与资源安全忧虑共振下，整体维持震荡偏强 格局。黄金中枢有望继续上移，白银高波动状态或延续，需警惕波动 放大背景下的阶段性回撤风险。 多要素共振，⽩银突破90美元关⼝ 降息预期、美联储独⽴性扰动与地缘⻛险共同作⽤，贵⾦属避险主线进⼀ 步强化。⻩⾦维持⾼位震荡、以配置属性为主；⽩银在⾦融属性回归与流 动性偏紧共振下率先放量，价格弹性显著释放，突破90美元关⼝。 重点资讯： 1）据读卖新闻周三报导，日本首相高市早苗正在考虑在下周解散众 议院后，于2月8日进行众议院改选。 2）特朗普威胁要对与伊朗有贸易往来的国家加征25%关税。 3）美国12月CPI年率持平于2.7%，核心CPI年率持平于2.6%；当月CPI 月环比0.31%；核心CPI月环比0.24%，低于市场预期（核心预期0. 30%）。 价格逻辑： 黄金：实际利率下行与信用扰动支撑高位运行。美国通胀数据弱于预 期，市场对年内进一步降息的定价持续强化，实际利率下行对无息资 产形成支撑 ...

1月14日，黄金与白银周二双双创下历史新高，现货黄金最高触及每盎司4634美元的历史新高，但随后 迅速回落，最终收盘在4586美元，日线最终收阴。现货白银上涨2.1%至每盎司86.92美元，盘中亦刷新 历史高点至89.11美元，今天早盘更是触及到90美元新高位置。周三（北京时间1月14日）亚市早盘，现 货黄金又是高开高走，一路攀升，目前交投于4620美元附近。 基本消息面： 美国12月消费者物价指数（CPI）的公布，本应是黄金多头的福音，却在实际走势中引发了市场的复杂 反应。数据显示，CPI环比上涨0.3%，同比2.7%，影响较小；核心CPI环比0.2%、同比2.6%，均低于分 析师预期的0.3%和2.7%。然而，黄金价格在数据公布后并未持续走高，反而从高点回落，这反映出市 场对通胀数据的解读并非一边倒，虽然通胀低于预期支持降息，但它也暗示经济冷却迹象，圣路易斯联 储主席穆萨莱姆强调，在通胀仍高于2%目标的情况下，近期无进一步降息理由，这让短期降息预期冷 却。 地缘政治方面，当地时间13日，以色列外交部长萨尔宣布，以色列决定退出多个联合国机构及相关组 织。以方称，这些机构存在"反以色列偏见"等问题。丹麦和格陵 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - Geopolitical risks are driving up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to supply surplus and the lack of confirmed conflicts. Precious metals remain bullish, and various commodities and financial products show different trends affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations. [2][3] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: US December CPI data boosts market expectations for a rate cut in April. API shows a significant weekly inventory build. Geopolitical tensions in Iran drive up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to supply surplus in Q1 2026. [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows crude oil price movements. High - sulfur fuel oil may see increased demand as a substitute for asphalt if Venezuelan heavy - oil supply is disrupted. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to increase, with a weakening fundamental outlook. [22] - **Asphalt**: Iranian geopolitical tensions lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, but asphalt's price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil. [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: US December CPI data and Iranian tensions make precious metals bullish. [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: LME copper shows signs that support domestic refined copper exports. Chile raises its copper production target. [4] - **Aluminum**:沪铝 tests historical highs, but the break - through is unconfirmed. High profits prompt aluminum plants to consider selling - hedging. [5] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rise, but high prices may have a negative impact on downstream consumption. [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**:沪镍 falls, while stainless - steel market activity is high. Inventory changes show different trends for pure nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless steel. [10] - **Tin**:沪锡 trading is driven by increased funds. Indonesian tin exports are significant, and option trading amplifies price fluctuations. [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is active. Upstream sales strategies change, and demand remains strong. Inventory changes vary among different sectors. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: It has a weak supply - demand situation. Reduced production in the north is not enough to offset weak demand from downstream industries. [13] - **Polysilicon**: Prices continue to decline. The market trading logic has changed, and caution is advised. [14] Steel - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have a bullish - oscillating trend. Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream iron - water production may bottom - out and rebound. [17][18] - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Both suggest a strategy of buying on dips. They are affected by factors such as raw material prices, inventory, and demand from the iron - making industry. [19][20] - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern. Demand is weak, and supply is gradually recovering. [15] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is in a stalemate. Production increases, and downstream demand shows mixed trends. Short - term prices may decline slightly, but the downward space is limited. [24] - **Methanol**: Geopolitical factors cause significant price fluctuations. Overseas supply is low, but domestic demand is weakening, and the driving force for price increases is weakening. [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Cost - driven short - term price increases, but the fundamental situation is weak, and long - term de - stocking is difficult. [26] - **Styrene**: Cost - support is strengthened, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Rising oil prices are beneficial to the market. Supply and demand show different trends for each product. [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may strengthen in the long - term with potential de - capacity. Caustic soda is in a weak state, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration may be compressed. [29] - **PX & PTA**: Geopolitical risks drive up prices, but downstream demand is weakening. [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. Short - term attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations, and the long - term outlook is still under pressure. [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Demand for both is weakening in the short - term. Cost is the main driving factor, and long - term over - capacity is a pressure. [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is bearish. South American weather and US soybean exports are important factors to watch. [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The market is affected by bio - diesel expectations and supply - side factors. It is expected to be range - bound. [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The US Department of Agriculture report indicates a loose supply - demand situation. The market is affected by Sino - Canadian relations and inventory levels. [38] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybean prices are回调. Supply is tight at the grassroots level, but demand is cautious. [39] - **Corn**: The US corn harvest is large, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. It is expected to fluctuate widely. [40] - **Livestock & Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The futures market is oscillating. Short - term supply pressure is high, and long - term prices may form a double - bottom pattern. [41] - **Egg**: Egg prices are expected to strengthen in the first half of 2026 due to reduced supply and increased demand. [42] - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is bullish, but the domestic market is in the off - season. Demand is stable, and the planting area policy in Xinjiang is uncertain. [43] - **Sugar**: International sugar production shows different trends in different countries. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to increase, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. [44] - **Apple**: Apple futures prices rise. The market focus shifts to demand, and the high - quality fruit supply is tight. [45] - **Wood & Pulp** - **Wood**: Wood prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is in the off - season. Low inventory provides some support. [46] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices are stable. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. [47] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share markets are expected to be range - bound and strong. Geopolitical situations need to be closely monitored. [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures show a bullish - flattening trend. The strategy of flattening the yield curve is recommended. [49] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: Maersk's price cuts indicate a weakening market. The 04 - contract valuation lacks a clear anchor, and far - month contracts are under pressure due to the expected resumption of Red Sea shipping. [21]

美国劳工部发布的2025年12月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据意外"爆冷"，核心CPI环比增速低于市场普遍预期，打破了此前对通胀反弹的 担忧，直接推动市场对美联储的降息预期升温。尽管整体通胀同比增速与前一月持平，但核心通胀的温和表现让市场重新评估美联储的 政策路径，叠加美联储内部本就存在的政策分歧，全球金融市场随之出现短期波动，后续降息节奏的不确定性仍未消散。 数据公布后，金融市场迅速做出反应，降息预期升温的信号显著。美股三大指数盘前直线拉升，但随后涨幅回落，最终道琼斯工业平均 指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综指微跌0.1%，标普500指数下跌0.19%。债券市场方面，美债收益率短期下行后趋于平稳，2年期美债收益率 小幅回落2个基点至3.53%，10年期美债收益率短暂下行后持平于4.17%。贵金属市场延续强势，现货白银首次站上88美元/盎司，年内累 计涨幅超23%；美元指数则收复前一日跌幅，推动美元兑日元汇率突破159。 市场对降息预期的定价明显调整，据CME"美联储观察"工具数据，交易员对4月降息的概率预期从数据公布前的38%升至42%，尽管6月 仍被视为最可能的首次降息时间，但降息节奏前移的预期已显现。当前市场 ...

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai closed at 103,540 yuan, while London copper slightly retreated to 13,142 USD [3][13] - The core CPI in the US for December 2025 was 2.6%, lower than expected, leading to a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which limits expectations for interest rate cuts [4][14] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange saw an increase in copper warehouse receipts by 5,505 tons to 122,100 tons, while LME copper inventories rose by 4,325 tons to 141,500 tons [4][14] - Chile's copper exports to China in December 2025 were approximately 751,000 tons, showing a month-on-month improvement but still relatively low [4][14] - Market sentiment is currently warm, supported by strong fundamentals and pre-holiday stocking, with expectations for copper prices to maintain high-level fluctuations [4][14] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel prices continue to operate at high levels due to uncertainties regarding Indonesian policies [4][14] - The Indonesian government is currently calculating the 2026 RKAB quota, aiming to match supply and demand, which has somewhat alleviated market concerns [4][14] - Nickel prices are expected to remain volatile until Indonesian policies are clarified, with the Shanghai nickel reference range set between 130,000 and 160,000 yuan per ton [4][14] Group 3: Silicon and Aluminum - The price of polysilicon remains low due to a decline in market sentiment, with global production expected to drop to around 110,000 tons in January [5][15] - The cancellation of export tax rebates for the photovoltaic downstream may temporarily benefit exports, but the impact on polysilicon demand is expected to be limited [5][15] - Aluminum prices are under pressure, with the 05 contract experiencing a significant drop and overall supply remaining excessive at around 96 million tons [5][15] - The 05 aluminum contract is expected to operate within a range of 2,500 to 2,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold short positions [5][15] Group 4: Zinc and Lead - Zinc prices showed strong fluctuations, with domestic TC prices stabilizing around 1,100 yuan, while the willingness to accept prices below 1,000 yuan is low [7][17] - The lead market is experiencing a slight recovery in supply due to adjustments in primary smelter maintenance plans, although demand remains weak [8][18] - The lead price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16,800 to 17,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation for range trading [8][18] Group 5: Precious Metals - The US December CPI data met expectations, leading to a slowdown in the upward momentum of precious metals, with only silver continuing to perform strongly [9][19] - Geopolitical risks remain, particularly with rising tensions between the US and Iran, and ongoing concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve [9][19] - The market is awaiting further guidance on tariffs and geopolitical developments, with current precious metal prices at high levels and significant volatility expected [9][19]