截至2025年12月18日 11:11，上证180指数(000010)下跌0.01%。成分股方面涨跌互现，上海机场(600009) 领涨6.70%，中国卫通(601698)上涨5.63%，中金公司(601995)上涨5.27%；生益科技(600183)领跌 4.86%，工业富联(601138)下跌4.75%，中信建投(601066)下跌2.77%。上证180ETF指数基金(530280)最新 报价1.19元。 消息面上，11月全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长4.8%，装备制造业增加值同比增长7.7%，对工业增 长贡献率达56.4%，产业升级带动下的经济基本面改善为指数提供支撑。此外，证监会强化"扶优限 劣"分类监管，对优质机构优化风控指标、打开资本空间，助力金融板块估值修复。 招商证券认为，展望2026年作为中国"十五五"规划开局之年与美国中期选举年，将形成关键的政策共 振，推动PPI上行，A股从牛市II阶段向以盈利改善为驱动力的"牛市III阶段"过渡。在过往两年赚钱效应 不错和中高回报率资产荒的背景下，A股资金供需有望延续较大规模净流入，为实现慢牛带来流动性支 持。投资策略应把握"风格切换觅周期，双轮驱动看长 ...

12月10日，A股三大指数涨跌不一，截至收盘，沪指跌0.23%报3900点，深证成指涨0.29%，创业板指跌 0.02%。全市场成交额1.79万亿元，较前一交易日缩量1260亿元，超2800股下跌。 盘面上，海南板块爆发，神农种业、海马汽车及罗牛山等多股涨停；免税概念走高，中百集团涨停；房 地产板块午后拉升，万科A、财信发展等多股涨停；贵金属、共享经济、商业百货及教育等板块涨幅居 前。另外，培育钻石板块下挫，惠丰钻石跌逾6%；电源设备板块走低，海博思创跌逾8%；乳业股集体 走弱，皇氏集团领跌；AIPC、银行及消费电子等板块跌幅居前。 | 行业热力图 × -- | 领涨板块 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国有大型银行II -1.99% | | 证券II +0.23% | 通信服务 -0.22% | 股份制银行II -1.82% | 通信设备 +1.54% | 工业金属 +0.97% | 软件开发 +0.21% | 煤炭开采 -0.21% | 元件 -1.54% | | | | 电 ...

【财经日历】 中国11月CPI、PPI 2025中国铂族金属市场年会(三亚) | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 47560.29 -179.03 | | -0.38% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 23576.49c | 30.59 | 0.13% | | 标普500 | 6840.51 | -6.00 | -0.09% | 加拿大央行公布利率决议 EIA公布月度短期能源展望报告 当地时间周二，美股三大指数涨跌互现，截至收盘，标普500指数微跌0.09%，纳指涨0.13%，道指跌 0.38%。 小盘股在利率预期推动下保持韧性，罗素2000指数盘中再创历史新高，最终收涨0.21%报2526.24点。 大型科技股走势分化。微软上涨0.20%，亚马逊上涨0.45%，谷歌A上涨1.07%，特斯拉涨1.29%；苹果 下跌0.26%，英伟达下跌0.31%，Meta走弱1.48%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收跌1.37%。热门中概股多数回落，百度跌超4%，小鹏、理想、贝壳跌逾3%。 大宗商品方面，国际油价下跌，纽约商品交易所2026年1月交货的 ...

其二，市场资金对于中央经济工作会议的观望。 经历了两天的普涨行情后，今日A股迎来调整。截至收盘，上证指数跌0.37%，深证成指跌0.39%，创业 板指涨0.61%，北证50跌1.72%，全市场成交额1.92万亿元，较上日成交额缩量1340亿元，超4000只个股 飘绿。板块题材上，CPO、电路板、零售板块活跃，有色金属、房地产、多元金融、海南板块表现不 佳。相信今天很多投资者的体感都是不太理想的。 为何今天A股会出现普跌呢？在我看来，原因主要有三： 其一，短线资金的获利了结。 上周五大盘探底回升走出了久违的中阳线，而在上周末"券商适度加杠杆"等多重利好的驱动下，昨日A 股继续迎来放量普涨，且市场成交额也重回2万亿元大关。不过在经历了两天的普涨过后，短线资金存 在获利了结的需求，叠加当前大盘正处于震荡调整区间，并且当前已到达3930点附近的"M顶"颈线压力 位，技术上也难以一次性突破，因此今天的普跌也就在情理之中。 就基本面而言，当前国内总需求不足、地产收缩等问题依然存在。虽然日前的中央政治局会议重申了适 度宽松的货币政策和积极财政政策，起到了"定心丸"作用，但对于具体政策的力度和见效时间，市场仍 在等待更明确的 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that since June, the A-share market has entered a main rising phase, driven by technology, with the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index both rising over 60% to their current peaks. However, by October, the market began to show signs of consolidation, raising concerns about the potential end of the bull market [2][12] - Recent regulatory announcements regarding insurance, public funds, and securities firms have provided three major positive signals, boosting market confidence and supporting the A-share bull market into 2026 [2][12] Group 2 - Positive Policy I: The National Financial Regulatory Administration has lowered risk factors for insurance companies, encouraging long-term capital to enter the market. This adjustment reduces the minimum capital requirements for insurance companies holding stocks from the CSI 300, Low Volatility Dividend 100, and STAR Market, potentially releasing over 70 billion yuan in incremental capital for the bull market [3][13] - Positive Policy II: New performance assessment guidelines for public funds focus on actual investor returns, promoting public funds as patient capital. The guidelines include fee reductions, performance benchmarks, and long-term assessment metrics, which are expected to enhance the attractiveness of public funds and facilitate the inflow of more household savings into the market [4][14] - Positive Policy III: The relaxation of leverage restrictions for quality securities firms is anticipated, which may enhance capital utilization efficiency and profitability. This policy aims to shift the industry from price competition to value competition, potentially increasing the capital available for the bull market [5][15] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the combination of these three policies will accelerate the inflow of incremental capital from insurance, public funds, and securities firms, improving liquidity and reinforcing the foundation of the A-share bull market. The outlook for the 2026 bull market remains optimistic, supported by macro-level strategic backing, technological breakthroughs, and micro-level liquidity easing [8][16]

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 有朋友问，近期市场有所波动，还在牛市吗？ A股 港股 的牛市有哪些特点？是慢牛还是快牛？ 面对这样的市场，我们该如何应对？之后市场还会继续上涨吗？ 针对大家的这些疑问，螺丝钉也通过直播课，进行了讲解。 长按识别下面二维码，添加 @课程小助手 微信，回复「 1202 」即可观看直播回放。 （提示：回复后可以耐心等待几秒哦～） A股目前仍处在牛市 每个投资者对牛市的定义不同。 国际上，一般从熊市底部上涨超20%，认为进入到技术性牛市。 反之，从顶部回调超20%，认为进入到技术性熊市。 那为什么会有这样一个约定俗成的牛市定义呢？其实这跟大盘指数的波动率有关系。 全球主流股票市场的宽基指数，比如沪深300、标普500，它们的年波动率一般就在10%~20%上下。 一旦某些年份，这些指数的涨跌大幅超过20%，投资者就会认为市场进入了技术性牛市或熊市。 但是从体感上，投资者一般把涨到指数点数较高位置的时候，叫做牛市。 比如2007年、2015年，当时大盘涨到了五六千点。 从2024年9月的最低点，到2025年10月最高点，中证全指上涨61.93%，进入到技术性牛市。 2025年11月 ...

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） A股平均3-5年会有一轮小的牛熊市，可 能达到3点几星级别，例如2018年初、 2021年初;平均7-10年会有一轮大的牛 市，有可能会达到1星、2星级别，例如 2007年、2015年。 这个更符合一般投资者说的牛市。 也有朋友问，现在是慢牛吗? 慢牛也没有标准的定义。 我们以A股中证全指为例，从2004年底 1000点起步，到2025年11月底，大约在 5700点上下，年化在8%-9%上下，加上 分红在7600点上下，年化在10%上下。 这是经历了多轮牛熊市之后，A股的长期 平均年化。 ,土杯工川町区示中物,以别十九也 在8%上下。 假设长期年化是10%，平均到一个月就 是0.8%上下的涨幅。如果一个月平均上 涨2%,一年对应上涨26%，会远远超过 所有主流经济体股票市场长期收益。 其实没有哪个国家的股票市场，能长期 保持每月2%的上涨速度。 A股的牛市很少是慢牛体现。 通常是闪电般快牛，之后一段时间震荡 或者阴跌。 例如最近一年的上涨，主要出现在2024 年9月下旬，以及2025年8-9月的少数交 易日，真正大涨的交易日，占全部交易 日的7%。 例如2024年9月， ...

Group 1: Key Factors Influencing the Bond Market - The ongoing bull market in A-shares is expected to continue exerting pressure on the bond market, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 28% since April 8, 2025, reaching a high of 4034 points on November 14, 2025 [2][3] - New tax regulations and redemption fee rules are anticipated to negatively impact the bond market, as the reintroduction of VAT on interest income from newly issued bonds increases costs for investors [6][7] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may open up monetary easing space in China, but the benefits for the bond market are expected to be limited due to a preference for equities among foreign investors [9][10] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - The real estate market's downturn and historically low bank deposit rates are driving residents to shift their savings into the stock market, with a total reduction of 2.34 trillion yuan in household deposits from July to October 2025 [3][6] - The new regulations on redemption fees for funds are likely to increase short-term costs for bond investors, potentially leading to a shift in investment strategies towards direct bond purchases rather than bond funds [7][8] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has resumed government bond trading to guide the yield curve, with net purchases of 20 billion yuan in October 2025, although this is significantly lower than previous months [11][13] Group 3: Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy - The economic fundamentals in China are expected to remain weak, with October data showing lower-than-expected export, production, and investment figures, leading to a potential need for further interest rate cuts [10][13] - The PBOC's actions, including the resumption of government bond trading, aim to stabilize the bond market and mitigate rising yield pressures, with expectations that the 10-year government bond yield will struggle to fall below 1.6% [11][13] - Overall, the bond market is likely to experience a range-bound fluctuation in yields due to the interplay of supportive monetary policy and ongoing pressures from the equity market [13]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Analyst Conference highlighted the challenges faced by wealthy individuals in asset allocation and the potential for a significant bull market in China, driven by economic recovery and global capital inflows [1][3][4]. Market Conditions - The Chinese stock market is currently in the first phase of a bull market, characterized by valuation recovery, with risk premiums still above historical averages [3][25]. - The market is undergoing a critical testing phase, where confidence and economic performance will determine the next steps [3][25]. Economic Outlook - A forecast suggests that in two years, the Chinese economy is likely to recover from deflation, leading to improved corporate profitability and a rise in stock index ROE [4][29]. - The current global economic landscape, particularly the high fiscal deficit in the U.S., raises doubts about the sustainability of the dollar's value and could trigger a reallocation of global capital towards China [4][29]. Investment Opportunities - Leading companies in A-shares are showing signs of profitability recovery, which is crucial for stabilizing core index ROE and reducing downward risks [1][4]. - The real estate sector, while facing challenges, has seen some leading firms restructure their profit models, indicating potential for recovery [4][15]. Historical Context - Historical analysis indicates that significant market bubbles require three conditions: a low-interest environment, a clear profit-making effect, and a lack of investment opportunities in other major markets [3][27]. - The previous A-share bubble in 2006-2007 was largely due to the collapse of the U.S. housing market, making China an attractive investment destination [3][27]. Future Projections - The potential for a new global asset allocation migration is anticipated, with capital likely to flow back into the Chinese market as its economic conditions improve [4][29]. - The current low-risk appetite among domestic investors and the significant wealth accumulation in China could serve as fuel for a future bull market [25][30].

Group 1 - The current stage of the Chinese stock market has only completed the first phase of a bull market, which is valuation recovery, with risk premiums still above historical averages [3][25] - The market is entering a critical testing period where confidence, economic data, and corporate earnings will determine the next phase of the market [3][25] - A potential third phase is anticipated, where profit effects will trigger a reallocation of domestic and global capital back into the Chinese market, possibly leading to a bubble [3][25] Group 2 - Historical conditions for forming a significant bubble include a low-interest environment, clear profit effects, and a lack of investment opportunities in other major markets [26][29] - The last major bubble in the A-share market occurred in 2006-2007, driven by the collapse of the US housing market, making China an attractive investment destination [29] - Current global economic conditions suggest that in two years, China's economy may recover, leading to a resurgence in corporate profitability and a potential shift in global asset allocation towards China [29][30] Group 3 - The hidden potential in the market is exemplified by leading companies that can maintain profitability even during economic downturns, as seen in the construction materials and real estate sectors [10][16] - Leading firms in struggling industries are gaining market share and improving profit margins due to the exit of weaker competitors [16][17] - The current wealth accumulation in China, particularly the potential return of overseas assets, combined with significant global institutional capital, serves as fuel for a potential bull market [25][19]