Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market is expected to be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. The electrolytic aluminum market may face stable supply and temporarily weak demand, with the influence of the consumption off - season intensifying. The casting aluminum alloy market is likely to be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with industrial inventory gradually accumulating [2]. - For all three markets (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and casting aluminum alloy), the technical analysis shows that the 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis with converging red columns. The recommended trading strategy is to trade with a light position in a volatile manner, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,900 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,513 yuan/ton, up 127 yuan. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,641 US dollars/ton, up 3 US dollars. The spreads of some contracts changed, such as the spread of the Shanghai Aluminum current - next month contract increasing by 10 yuan to 65 yuan, while the alumina current - next month contract spread decreased by 24 yuan to 0 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Inventories**: The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 13,990 hands to 330,897 hands, while the alumina main contract position decreased by 9,904 hands to 211,644 hands. LME aluminum inventories increased by 3,725 tons to 434,425 tons, and Shanghai Aluminum's SHFE inventory increased by 5,625 tons to 108,822 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Prices**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price was 20,940 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,210 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of casting aluminum alloy decreased by 740 yuan to - 30 yuan, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 280 yuan to 100 yuan. The basis of alumina decreased by 203 yuan to - 176 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - **Production and Utilization**: Alumina production was 774.93 million tons per month, with a national alumina start - up rate of 79.61% and a capacity utilization rate of 80.93% (down 1.17 percentage points) [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 23.83 million tons to 696.19 million tons per month, and the alumina supply - demand balance increased by 52.40 million tons to 27.14 million tons per month [2]. - **Trade**: China's imports of aluminum scrap and waste decreased by 4,084.65 tons to 155,616.27 tons per month, and exports decreased by 8.11 tons to 64.33 tons per month. Alumina exports decreased by 4 million tons to 17 million tons per month, and imports increased by 3.38 million tons to 10.13 million tons per month [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity**: The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.50 million tons to 4,520.70 million tons per month, the production of aluminum products increased by 11.17 million tons to 587.37 million tons per month, and the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.29 million tons to 61.89 million tons per month [2]. - **Trade**: The import of primary aluminum decreased by 30,781 tons to 192,314.50 tons per month, and the export decreased by 12,523.35 tons to 19,570.72 tons per month. The export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 6 million tons to 49 million tons per month, and the export of aluminum alloy increased by 0.16 million tons to 2.58 million tons per month [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - **Production**: The production of aluminum alloy increased by 2.40 million tons to 166.90 million tons per month, and the production of automobiles increased by 16.66 million vehicles to 280.86 million vehicles per month. The national housing climate index decreased by 0.11 to 93.60 [2]. 3.6 Options Situation - **Volatility and Ratio**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 0.08 percentage points to 10.04%, the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.01 percentage points to 10.10%. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money increased by 0.0233 percentage points to 11.38%, and the put - call ratio increased by 0.0486 to 1.13 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Fiscal policy in the second half of 2025 is expected to continue to support consumption and investment, and market institutions expect a further decline in LPR [2]. - Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorated" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and expected long - term high interest rates [2]. 3.8 Market Views and Suggestions - **Alumina**: The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is stable. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply is stable, and the demand is temporarily weak. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly stronger volatile manner [2]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The supply and demand are weak. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a slightly stronger volatile manner [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Stock Index Futures Panoramic Daily Report 2025/7/22 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 [3] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - A total of 1,540 A-share listed companies disclosed their semi-annual performance forecasts for 2025 as of July 18, 2025, with 674 companies expecting good news, a pre - happy ratio of about 43.77% [2] - On July 21, the 1 - year and 5 - year - plus loan prime rates (LPR) remained unchanged from the previous month [2] - A - share major indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.62%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.84%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.61%. The trading volume of the two markets increased for four consecutive trading days [2] - The real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of trade - in for social retail sales has weakened, but the loose monetary policy has shown results in financial data, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators [2] - As the Politburo meeting at the end of July approaches, market bulls may make early arrangements, and stock indices still have long - term upward potential. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contract Data - IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts' main and sub - main contracts all showed upward trends in price changes compared to the previous period [2] - The spreads between different contracts such as IC - IF, IF - IH, etc. also had corresponding changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2] - The net positions of the top 20 in futures contracts mostly decreased, such as IH with a decrease of 1,666.0 and IF with a decrease of 518.0 [2] Basis and Market Sentiment Data - The basis of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased compared to the previous period [2] - The margin trading balance increased by 1,338.16 billion yuan, and the A - share trading volume increased by 155.82 billion yuan [2] - The reverse repurchase operation volume increased by 140.75 billion yuan, and the north - bound trading volume increased by 2,148.0 [2] - The MLF net injection decreased by 465.57 billion yuan [2] Option and Volatility Data - The closing price of the IO at - the - money call option (2508) increased by 18.40, and its implied volatility increased by 0.26% [2] - The closing price of the IO at - the - money put option (2508) decreased by 19.20, and its implied volatility increased by 0.26% [2] - The 20 - day volatility of the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.42%, and the trading volume PCR increased by 1.67% [2] - The position PCR increased by 5.72% [2] Technical and Market Analysis Data - The Wind market strength of all A - shares decreased by 1.50, and the technical aspect decreased by 2.60 [2] - The capital aspect decreased by 0.30 [2] Key Events to Watch - On July 24, 15:15 - 16:30, the preliminary SPGI manufacturing PMI values for France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK in July will be released [3] - On July 24, 20:15, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision [3] - On July 24, 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending July 19 will be released, and at 21:45, the preliminary SPGI manufacturing PMI value for the US in July will be released [3] - On July 27, 9:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size for June will be released [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The fundamentals show that the TC spot index of copper concentrate has slightly rebounded but still operates in the negative range, and port inventories have slightly increased. Recently, the decline in copper prices has dragged down the quotation of copper ore slightly. On the supply side, due to the relatively abundant raw materials recently and the good price of by - product sulfuric acid from smelters, smelters' production willingness remains relatively positive, and the domestic supply volume may increase steadily and slightly. On the demand side, affected by the seasonal consumption off - season, the start - up and orders of downstream copper processing enterprises have declined. Coupled with the price - holding behavior of holders, downstream purchasing attitudes are cautious, mainly for just - in - time replenishment, so the trading sentiment in the spot market is relatively light. In terms of inventory, domestic social inventories have slightly accumulated but still operate at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of slightly increasing supply and temporarily weak demand, but due to the increasing macro - policy benefits, the industry expectations are gradually being repaired. In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.53, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1204, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,740 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 9,849 dollars/ton, down 11 dollars. The inter - month spread of the main contract is - 30 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 166,726 lots, up 29,109 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is 1,583 lots, up 2,935 lots. LME copper inventory is 122,075 tons, down 100 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 84,556 tons, up 3,094 tons; LME copper cancelled warrants are 12,575 tons, down 1,500 tons; Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 25,507 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 79,755 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 79,695 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 65 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 48.5 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract is 15 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the LME copper premium (0 - 3) is - 66.96 dollars/ton, down 13.2 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 234.97 million tons, down 4.58 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 43.45 dollars/kiloton, up 0.34 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 70,030 yuan/metal ton, up 70 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,730 yuan/metal ton, up 70 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 130.2 million tons, up 4.8 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 460,000 tons, up 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,690 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,100 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 221.45 million tons, up 11.85 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 203.986 billion yuan, up 63.169 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 4,665.756 billion yuan, up 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,505,785,400 pieces, up 270,785,400 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 11.57%, down 0.08%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 10.02%, down 0.10%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 12.4%, up 0.0291; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.53, down 0.1204 [2]. Industry News - In the first half of 2025, the national economy generally operated steadily and improved. The more proactive fiscal policy has achieved remarkable results. In the second half of the year, to promote consumption and investment, the fiscal policy will continue to act proactively. The LPR in China remained unchanged in July for the second consecutive month, with the 1 - year variety at 3.0% and the over - 5 - year variety at 3.5%. Market institutions generally expect that there is room for further decline in LPR in the second half of the year. International rating agency Fitch said that policy risks cast a shadow over the US credit outlook. Fitch downgraded the outlook of 25% of US industries in 2025 to "deteriorating" due to increased uncertainty, slow economic growth, and the expectation of long - term high interest rates [2].

Report Overview - The report provides a comprehensive review of the financial markets on July 22, 2025, including stock indices, central bank operations, economic data, and corporate news [1][2][4] Market Indices Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hang Seng Index opened 165 points higher and reached a high of 25,010 points, a three - year high since February 2022, closing at 24,994 points, up 168 points or 0.7% with a turnover of HK$263.012 billion [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 53 points or 0.6% to close at 9,040 points [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose 46 points or 0.8% to close at 5,585 points [1] A - share Market - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 25 points or 0.7% to close at 3,559 points, a nine - month high since October last year, with a turnover of RMB730.9 billion [2] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose 93 points or 0.9% to close at 11,007 points, with a turnover of RMB969.1 billion [2] - The ChiNext Index rose 19 points or 0.9% to close at 2,296 points, with a turnover of RMB444 billion [2] US Stock Market - The S&P 500 Index rose 0.1% to close at 6,305 points, closing above 6,300 points for the first time, and the Nasdaq rose 78 points or 0.4% to close at 20,974 points [2] Central Bank Operations - The People's Bank of China conducted 170.7 billion yuan of seven - day reverse repurchase operations on July 21, with an operating rate of 1.4%. There were 226.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 55.5 billion yuan [2] - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was set at 7.1522, down 24 points [2] Economic Data - The overall consumer price index in June 2025 increased by 1.4% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 1.7% and the 1.9% increase in May 2025. The basic inflation rate was 1%, the same as in May [4] Corporate News - JD.com's self - operated takeaway store "Seven Fresh Kitchen" opened on July 20 [4] - Transsion Holdings is considering a secondary IPO in Hong Kong, planning to raise about US$1 billion (equivalent to about HK$7.8 billion), but the discussion is in the early stage [4] - Harbin Electric issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit of about 1.02 billion yuan for the six months ended June, compared with 523 million yuan in the same period last year [5] - Meitu expects an adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company's equity holders to increase by about 65% - 72% year - on - year for the six months ended June 30, 2025. Considering non - cash and non - operating items, the net profit is expected to increase by no less than 30% [5] International News - The Kremlin said it does not rule out a meeting between the Russian and US presidents if they both visit Beijing in September. Russian President Putin will visit China for the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II [3] - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US government focuses on the quality of trade agreements and will not rush to reach an agreement. Countries in trade negotiations with the US may face high tariffs if no agreement is reached by August 1 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The structural market in index futures continues and supports the market [1] - On July 21, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. IF increased by 0.68%, IH by 0.25%, IC by 0.99%, and IM by 0.89% [1] - On this trading day, the total trading volume of index futures declined, indicating a cooling of investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF decreased by 24,940 lots, IH by 19,875 lots, IC by 9,461 lots, and IM by 1,381 lots [2] - In terms of positions, the total positions of IF decreased by 2,025 lots, IH by 634 lots, while IC increased by 5,196 lots and IM by 15,851 lots [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1期指期现数据跟踪 - **Index Futures Data**: Presented the closing prices, price changes, basis, trading volumes (in billions), trading volumes, and position changes of various index futures contracts such as IF, IH, IC, and IM on July 21, 2025 [1] - **Trading Volume and Position Changes**: The total trading volume of the four major index futures decreased, and the position changes of different index futures varied [2] - **20 - Member Position Changes**: Showed the long - and short - position changes of the top 20 members in different index futures contracts [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [5] 3.2重要驱动 - **LPR Quote**: The LPR quote in July remained stable. The 1 - year LPR was reported at 3%, and the 5 - year - plus variety was reported at 3.5% [6] - **Sino - US Leaders' Meeting**: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there was no information available regarding the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders in the next few months [6] - **US - EU Trade Tension**: The US Secretary of Commerce set August 1 as the "hard" deadline. If the EU fails to reach a new trade agreement by then, it will face at least a 30% tariff, and the EU is preparing a full - scale counterattack [6] - **Stock Market Performance**: The broader market opened higher and continued the upward trend in a volatile manner. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, and the ChiNext Index followed the upward trend in the afternoon. A - share trading volume increased to 1.73 trillion yuan [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for 1-year and 3.5% for 5-year and above, aligning with market expectations, indicating a stable economic environment and potential for future rate cuts [1][2] Group 1: Current LPR Status - The LPR remains unchanged due to stable policy interest rates and a strong economic performance in Q2, reducing the immediate need for downward adjustments [1] - The current corporate loan rate averages around 3.3%, down approximately 45 basis points year-on-year, while personal housing loan rates average 3.1%, down about 60 basis points year-on-year [1] Group 2: Future Expectations - Experts anticipate that there is still room for LPR to decline in the second half of the year, driven by the need to stimulate domestic demand and stabilize the real estate market [2] - The likelihood of further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is expected to increase in Q3 or Q4, which may lead to a corresponding decrease in LPR [2]

新一期贷款市场报价利率（LPR）出炉。7月21日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年7月21日LPR为：1年期LPR为3%，5年期以上 LPR为3.5%。人民银行指出，以上LPR在下一次发布LPR之前有效。 本月LPR不变，整体符合市场预期。而展望后续，有分析人士指出，预计下半年人民银行还会继续降息，并带动两个期限品种的LPR报价跟进下降，还有可 能通过单独引导5年期以上LPR下行等方式，推动居民房贷利率更大幅度下降。 | | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | 学术交流 | 征信管理 | 反洗钱 | 党 | | 服务互动 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indexes rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.72%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.86%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.87%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets rebounded significantly, and over 4,000 stocks rose. Industry sectors generally increased, with building materials, building decoration, and steel sectors strengthening significantly while bank stocks fell against the market [2]. - In the domestic economic fundamentals, the Q2 GDP grew 5.2% year-on-year, meeting market expectations. However, the growth rates of social retail sales and fixed - asset investment declined significantly, and the real estate market continued to decline. Exports improved due to the easing of Sino - US trade relations. In financial data, the year - on - year growth rates of M1 and M2 in June accelerated compared to May, with the M1 growth rate rising significantly and the M2 - M1 gap narrowing, indicating improved investment and consumption willingness of residents and enterprises [2]. - The LPR quotes in July remained unchanged. The Q2 GDP meeting expectations alleviated the urgency of LPR cuts. The profit performance of listed companies that have announced semi - annual performance forecasts is differentiated. Overall, the real estate market still drags down fixed - asset investment growth, and the support of the trade - in policy for social retail sales has weakened. However, the effectiveness of loose monetary policies has emerged, which may be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. As the Politburo meeting approaches at the end of July, market bulls may pre - arrange, and stock indexes still have long - term upward potential. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - **Contract Prices**: IF (2509) was at 4064.8 (+29.6), IH (2509) at 2771.2 (+8.0), IC (2509) at 6055.6 (+62.4), and IM (2509) at 6463.2 (+59.4). The prices of secondary contracts also increased [2]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts had various changes, such as the IF - IH spread up 17.8, the IC - IF spread up 32.0, etc. [2]. - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between quarterly and monthly contracts of different varieties had different trends, with some rising and some falling [2]. 3.2 Futures Positions - The net positions of the top 20 in IF decreased by 130.0 to - 28,974.00, while those in IH increased by 1811.0 to - 15,786.00. The net positions of the top 20 in IC and IM also increased [2]. 3.3 Spot Prices - The spot prices of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, and the basis of corresponding futures contracts changed, mostly decreasing [2]. 3.4 Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume was 17,271.35 billion yuan, up 1338.16 billion yuan. Margin trading balance decreased by 20.66 billion yuan to 19,023.36 billion yuan. Northbound trading volume increased by 99.31 billion yuan to 1946.21 billion yuan [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks was 73.92%, up 25.91 percentage points. Shibor was 1.366%, down 0.096 percentage points. The closing prices and implied volatilities of call and put options changed, and the 20 - day volatility of the CSI 300 index increased [2]. 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A - shares, technical, and capital indicators in the Wind analysis showed upward trends, with increases of 1.50, 2.60, and 0.50 respectively [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of July 18, 1540 A - share listed companies announced 2025 semi - annual performance forecasts, with 674 pre - optimistic, a pre - optimistic ratio of about 43.77% [2]. - On July 21, the 1 - year and 5 - year - plus LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2]. 3.7 Key Points of Attention - Key economic data and events to watch include the July SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary values of France, Germany, the Eurozone, and the UK on July 24, the European Central Bank interest rate decision, US initial jobless claims, and the US July SPGI manufacturing PMI preliminary value, as well as China's June industrial enterprise profits on July 27 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has maintained the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) at 3.0% for the 1-year rate and 3.5% for the 5-year rate, aligning with market expectations and reflecting a stable monetary policy environment [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Monetary Policy Context - The LPR remains unchanged amid a stable backdrop of the 7-day reverse repurchase rate, indicating a cautious approach by the PBOC in response to the economic environment [2][4]. - The PBOC has emphasized the need for a balanced approach between supporting the real economy and maintaining the health of the banking system, as highlighted in their first-quarter monetary policy report [5]. Economic Indicators - The average interest rates for new corporate loans and personal housing loans in the first half of the year were approximately 3.3% and 3.1%, respectively, showing a decrease of about 45 and 60 basis points compared to the same period last year [7]. - Recent data on fixed asset investment and the real estate market have fallen short of market expectations, indicating that the economic foundation requires strengthening [7]. Future Outlook - There is a consensus among market institutions that there is potential for further downward adjustments in the LPR in the second half of the year, particularly if external economic pressures increase [2][6]. - Analysts suggest that the PBOC may consider lowering the LPR to reduce financing costs for the real economy, especially in light of anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [7][8]. - The focus may shift from merely lowering loan rates to reducing overall financing costs, including non-interest expenses, to better support economic activity [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally declined in the previous trading session, with the T2509 contract down 0.09% and little change in open interest. The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, presenting no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed movements, and key - term Treasury bond yields also varied. Overseas, US 10Y Treasury bond yields declined, German 10Y yields rose, and Japanese 10Y yields fell. The central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, which supports the price of Treasury bond futures, but the "anti - involution" policy drives some commodity prices to strengthen, increasing the volatility of Treasury bond futures prices in the short term [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: On the previous trading day, for TS2509, the closing price was 102.434, down 0.006 (-0.01%); for TS2512, it was 102.498, down 0.004 (0.00%); for TF2509, 105.990, down 0.055 (-0.05%); for TF2512, 106.050, down 0.065 (-0.06%); for T2509, 108.790, down 0.095 (-0.09%); for T2512, 108.860, down 0.080 (-0.07%); for TL2509, 120.46, down 0.270 (-0.22%); for TL2512, 120.3, down 0.260 (-0.22%) [2] - **Open Interest and Volume**: Open interest for TS2509 was 113080 (down 174), TS2512 was 8999 (down 110), TF2509 was 157810 (up 943), TF2512 was 37446 (up 721), T2509 was 192316 (down 630), T2512 was 37438 (up 270), TL2509 was 115390 (down 1221), TL2512 was 32595 (up 128). Trading volumes were 22678 for TS2509, 1786 for TS2512, 44183 for TF2509, 2983 for TF2512, 51738 for T2509, 5384 for T2512, 72268 for TL2509, and 5564 for TL2512 [2] - **Spread**: The inter - delivery spread for TS was -0.064 (previous value -0.062), TF was -0.060 (previous value -0.070), T was -0.070 (previous value -0.055), and TL was 0.160 (previous value 0.170) [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of active CTD bonds for each contract was between 1.3735% - 1.8005%, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Domestic Treasury Yields**: Yields of key - term domestic Treasury bonds showed mixed movements. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose 0.75bp to 1.67%, and the 10 - 2Y yield spread was 26.02bp [2] - **Overseas Treasury Yields**: US 10Y Treasury bond yields fell 3bp, German 10Y yields rose 1bp, and Japanese 10Y yields fell 1.4bp [2] Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On July 18, the central bank conducted 1875 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a rate of 1.4%, with a net injection of 1028 billion yuan. This week, 17268 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, along with 2000 billion yuan of MLF and 1200 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - term deposits [3] - **LPR**: The latest LPR will be announced on July 21, and it is widely expected to remain unchanged [3] - **Trade and Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce responded to US and Canadian trade - related measures, emphasizing cooperation and safeguarding Chinese enterprises' rights [3] - **Hydropower Project**: The construction of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project started, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [3] - **Fed**: Fed Governor Waller called for a rate cut in July, and Trump urged the Fed to cut rates. The US July Michigan Consumer Confidence Index reached a five - month high, and the 5 - year inflation expectation hit a five - month low [3] Industry Information - **Money Market Rates**: On July 18, most money market interest rates showed mixed movements, with some rising and some falling [3] - **US Treasury Yields**: US Treasury yields declined across the board, mainly due to Waller's dovish remarks and the decline in inflation expectations [3] Comment and Strategy - The central bank's supportive monetary policy supports Treasury bond futures prices, but the "anti - involution" policy boosts commodity prices, increasing the short - term volatility of Treasury bond futures prices [3]