Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise to 24,300 points due to the reduction of tariffs between China and the US, with the US tariffs on Chinese goods decreasing from 145% to 30% and Chinese tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for a period of 90 days, indicating a significant easing of tensions [2] - The market anticipates a new round of financial policies from mainland China, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, aimed at stabilizing market expectations and boosting investor confidence [2] Sector Focus - The Chinese central bank and other departments are committed to supporting technological innovation through various investment strategies, emphasizing long-term and hard technology investments [3][7] - The US Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates, with expectations of two rate cuts totaling 0.5% this year, reflecting a cautious approach to economic uncertainties [3][7] Company News - Alibaba (9988) reported a 7% year-on-year revenue increase to 236.45 billion yuan, but adjusted net profit of 29.847 billion yuan fell short of expectations [9] - NetEase (9999) achieved a 32% increase in adjusted net profit, driven by a 12% rise in gaming revenue, exceeding market expectations [9] - Geely (0175) reported a 2.6 times increase in first-quarter profit, with revenue rising 24.51% year-on-year [9] - JD.com (9618) announced that its food delivery business has surpassed 20 million daily orders, marking a new high since its launch [9] - NIO (9866) plans to launch its new model, the L90, in the next quarter, aiming to expand its market presence [9] Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's overall export and import volumes increased by 15.8% and 13.5% year-on-year in March, respectively, indicating a positive trade outlook [7] - The United Nations has downgraded its global economic growth forecast to 2.4% for the year, with China's growth expected to slow to 4.6% due to various economic pressures [7][8]

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡偏强 宏观方面，国内降息降准等一揽子金融政策落地，叠加中美经贸高层会 谈关税协商取得一定成果，政策面释放积极信号，基本面来看，本年度 国内商业库存去库加速，消费量维持高位或导致本年度后期供需偏紧， 短期棉价受多方利好背景下，短中期棉价维持震荡偏强运行。巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，2024 年巴西棉总产达到 370 万吨，2025 年预计 总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉有一定压力。国内新疆新棉播种已经结束， 并未出现异常天气，今年新疆丰产概率增大，以及国内一二季度抢出口， 消费前置，远期合约有压力。美棉已经进入播种期，后续 7、8 月美国 天气值得关注，6 月美国 6.5 万亿美元国债到期，中美贸易谈判显得尤 为重要，若向好的形势发展，美国通胀缓和、国内通缩也得到缓和，美 联储降息概率上升，更加有利于经济发展，所以未来还是要看宏观形势 的发展，逐步认证，从整体上，25、26 年度预期全球依然是高产年份， 国内短中期棉花商业库存偏紧有结构性矛盾，短中期看涨，但远期丰产， 限制了棉花上涨的幅度。（数据来源：中国棉花信息网 TTEB） ◆ PTA：区间震荡 现货方面：PT ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 资讯早班车 资讯早班车-2025-05-16 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | | | 社会融资规模增量:当 | ...

FICC日报 | 2025-05-16 盘面再现高股息行情 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 市场分析 国内政策推进。宏观方面，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，国务院总理强调，要深刻认识和准确把握当 前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国际循 环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。海外方面，美国4月PPI环比意外下跌0.5%，其中 服务价格下降0.7%，创2009年以来最大单月跌幅。上周初请失业金人数持平于22.9万人，符合市场预期。 股指回调。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收跌，上证指数收盘跌0.68%收于3380.82点，创业板指跌1.92%。行业方 面，板块指数跌多涨少，仅美容护理、煤炭、公用事业、农林牧渔行业收红，计算机、通信、电子、传媒行业跌 幅居前。当日沪深两市成交金额回落至1.15亿元。证监会修订发布《上市公司募集资金监管规则》，强调募集资金 使用应专款专用，用于主营业务，明确超募资金最终用途应为在建项目及新项目、回购注销，不得用于永久补充 流动资金和偿还银行借款。海外市场，鲍威尔表示 ...

金 融 期 货 研 究 | | | 毛磊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | | maolei@gtht.com | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 期指数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | 沪深300 | 3907.2 | ↓0.91 | | 2414.6 | | | | | | IF2505 | 3908.2 | ↓0.74 | 1 | 239.3 | 20365 | ↓13325 | 19193 | ↓11402 | | IF2506 | 3872.8 | ↓0.74 | -34.4 | 698.1 | 59965 | ↓21992 | 153318 | ↓11284 | | IF2509 | 3808.2 | ↓0.67 | -99 | 181.5 | 15855 | ↓2926 | 65235 | ↓244 | | I ...

丁薛祥主持会议 李强在做强国内大循环工作推进会上强调 把做强国内大循环作为推动经济行稳致远的战略之举 李强指出，要聚焦制约经济循环的关键问题和薄弱环节，在促进经济持续向好中夯实做强国 内大循环的基础。要精准有效帮扶外贸企业，切实帮助解决实际困难，有效应对外部冲击。 要千方百计稳定就业，支持企业稳岗，扩大各领域特别是服务业就业，突出解决高校毕业 生、农民工等就业。要深挖潜力提振消费，推动大宗消费更新升级，激发服务消费潜力，放 大新兴消费带动效应。要扩大有效投资，加快资金筹集使用和项目建设，大力促进民间投 资。要支持地方打造更多发展亮点，通过科技创新培育产业亮点，依托特色资源打造品牌亮 点。要统筹发展和安全，防范化解各种风险，保持社会大局稳定。 李强强调，各部门各地区要奋发进取、改革创新，强化政策谋划实施，加强工作协同配合， 充分激发市场活力和社会创造力，形成竞相发展的良好氛围，在做强国内大循环中开创发展 新局面。 国家发展改革委、商务部和浙江省政府、江西省政府、甘肃省政府主要负责同志在会上发 言。 （来源：新华社） 5月15日，国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会，中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理李强出席会议并讲话 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core View of the Report - The report suggests a bullish outlook for stock index futures and recommends using a long - straddle buying strategy for stock index options to capture the trend after direction selection. The short - term positive news such as the favorable policies on May 7 and the stage results of China - US tariff negotiations on May 12 are beneficial to the stock market. Currently, the valuation levels of major Chinese indices are still low, and it is cost - effective for medium - and long - term funds to enter the market [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IF contracts in different periods decreased compared to the day before yesterday, with declines ranging from - 0.67% to - 0.74%. The trading volume was between 3,433 and 59,965, and the open interest decreased from - 244 to - 11,402 [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IH contracts in different periods increased, with increases ranging from 1.75% to 2.01%. The trading volume was between 2,516 and 48,329, and the open interest increased from 1,153 to 13,041 [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IC contracts in different periods decreased, with declines ranging from - 1.10% to - 1.17%. The trading volume was between 5,256 and 58,925, and the open interest decreased from - 9 to - 12,886 [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous day's closing prices of IM contracts in different periods decreased, with declines ranging from - 1.28% to - 1.40%. The trading volume was between 10,403 and 155,023, and the open interest changes ranged from - 15,638 to 722 [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The inter - month spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts showed certain changes, with current values of - 35.40, - 18.40, - 97.80, and - 109.20 respectively, compared to previous values of - 35.60, - 20.40, - 102.20, and - 113.60 [1] 2. Stock Index Spot Market - **Indices**: The previous day's values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices decreased, with declines of - 0.91%, - 0.49%, - 1.45%, and - 1.68% respectively. The trading volumes and total trading amounts also changed to varying degrees [1] - **Industry Indices**: Among different industries, the energy, raw materials, industrial, optional consumption, major consumption, medical and health, real estate and finance, information technology, telecommunications, and public utilities industries all showed different degrees of increase, with increases ranging from 0.37% to 2.21% [1] 3. Futures - Spot Basis - The basis of different contracts relative to their corresponding spot indices showed certain changes. For example, the basis of IF contracts relative to the CSI 300 index changed from - 4.26 to - 0.21 for the current - month contract, and the basis of IH contracts relative to the SSE 50 index changed from 2.22 to 0.50 for the current - month contract [1] 4. Other Domestic and Overseas Indices - **Domestic Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index all decreased, with declines ranging from - 0.68% to - 1.91% [1] - **Overseas Indices**: The Hang Seng Index decreased by - 0.79%, the Nikkei 225 decreased by - 0.98%, the S&P 500 increased by 0.41%, and the DAX Index increased by 0.72% [1] 5. Macroeconomic Information - The State Council held a work promotion meeting on strengthening the domestic large - scale cycle, emphasizing the importance of domestic economic stability. The Supreme People's Court and the CSRC jointly issued a guiding opinion to safeguard the high - quality development of the capital market. The top - level design for urban renewal in China was introduced. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's stricter restrictions on Chinese chips, and the Fed Chairman Powell considered adjusting the core content of the monetary policy framework [2] 6. Industry Information - After the central bank's reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut on May 7, over a hundred bank wealth management products had their performance comparison benchmarks lowered, and the industry may face an "asset shortage." 19 FOF products issued liquidation warning announcements this year, with many experiencing significant scale shrinkage. The real estate industry in 2024 was still in an adjustment period, with only 11 out of the top 30 real estate enterprises achieving revenue growth. The domestic HarmonyOS ecosystem has a million - level talent gap, which is expected to widen in the next three years [2]

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes strengthening the domestic circulation as a strategic move to promote stable and sustainable economic growth, aiming for high-quality development [1] - The State Council has issued guidelines for urban renewal, focusing on the renovation of old neighborhoods, factories, and villages, with eight main tasks outlined [1] - The People's Bank of China and other departments are committed to supporting technological innovation by encouraging financial institutions to increase loans for tech enterprises [1] Group 2 - Alibaba reported a 7% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q4 of fiscal year 2025, reaching 236.45 billion yuan, with a 22% increase in non-GAAP net profit to 29.847 billion yuan [1] - NetEase announced a 7.4% year-on-year increase in net revenue for Q1 of 2025, amounting to 28.8 billion yuan, with a net profit of 11.2 billion yuan compared to 8.5 billion yuan in the same period last year [1] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced new regulations for the supervision of funds raised by listed companies, emphasizing the dedicated use of funds to support the real economy [1] - The Supreme Court and the CSRC have issued guidelines to ensure fair enforcement of laws and judicial services to support the high-quality development of the capital market [1]

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2025 年 05 月 16 日 星期五 [Table_Summary] 概览 核心观点 【市场回顾】 周四 A 股三大指数集体收跌，截止收盘，沪指收跌 0.68%，深成指收 跌 1.62%，创业板指收跌 1.92%。沪深两市成交额 11522.45 亿元；申 万行业方面，美容护理、煤炭、公用事业领涨，计算机、通信、电子 领跌；概念板块方面，NMN 概念、合成生物、宠物经济概念涨幅居前， 华为盘古、DRG/DIP、华为昇腾概念跌幅居前；港股方面，恒生指数 收跌 0.79%，恒生科技指数收跌 1.56%；海外方面，美国三大指数涨 跌不一，道指收涨 0.65%，标普 500 收涨 0.41%，纳指收跌 0.18%。 【重要新闻】 【国务院召开做强国内大循环工作推进会】国务院总理李强在会上强 调，要深刻认识和准确把握当前经济形势，把发展的战略立足点放在 做强国内大循环上，以国内大循环的内在稳定性和长期成长性对冲国 际循环的不确定性，推动我国经济行稳致远，努力实现高质量发展。 【我国城市更新顶层设计出台】中办、国办近日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, various sectors in the market are influenced by multiple factors including economic policies, international trade negotiations, and supply - demand dynamics. Different sectors show different trends and risks. For example, in the financial market, the Fed's potential policy framework changes affect the performance of the US dollar index and US stock index futures; in the commodity market, supply - demand relationships in industries such as steel, copper, and agricultural products determine price trends [14][22][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The release of the urban renewal action plan clarifies the path for domestic economic support, and fixed - asset investment will maintain a high proportion in the economy. Attention should be paid to the marginal change of PPI to determine the elasticity of corporate profit margins. It is recommended to allocate large, medium, and small - cap stock indices evenly [14][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Gold prices fluctuated sharply, first falling then rising and finally closing higher. With the easing of tariffs and geopolitical military conflicts, funds are flowing out of gold. The short - term gold price is still in the adjustment process, not fully stabilized, and the increased volatility makes trading more difficult. It is recommended to be cautious about the risk of price decline and wait before bottom - fishing [18][19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The Fed is preparing to modify its policy framework, which means a significant change in future policy thinking. The US dollar index will fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to expect the US dollar index to oscillate [22][23]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's change in the monetary framework may increase its tolerance for inflation, and high inflation and high interest rates may exist for a longer period. Economic data shows that inflation and consumption data continue to weaken, and market expectations for interest rate cuts have increased. The short - term market sentiment is optimistic, and the stock index fluctuates strongly, but it is recommended to treat it as range - bound due to potential negotiation uncertainties [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Market concerns about the US biodiesel policy have led to a significant decline in the prices of US soybean oil and US soybean futures. Brazilian soybean production and export forecasts have been raised. The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to Sino - US relations, US biodiesel policy, and weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas [28]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased this week, but the marginal weakness in the manufacturing terminal has not been completely reversed. Steel prices are in a stage of rebound, but lack the momentum for a sharp rise. It is recommended to hold a light position in the short term, wait for the market to rebound, and pay attention to changes in the export end [31][32]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry has declined, and inventory has decreased slightly. The factors affecting the CS - C futures spread are complex, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.2.4 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The coking coal market in Lvliang is oscillating weakly. With the improvement of the macro - environment, coking coal may stabilize with the overall black metal sector in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term fundamentals have not changed, and attention should be paid to demand changes [34][35]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory days of feed enterprises have slightly increased, while the raw material inventory of deep - processing enterprises has declined. It is recommended to hold the previously entered 07 long positions, 7 - 9 positive spreads, and 7 - 11 positive spreads, and pay attention to the results of import auctions [36][37]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Foran Mining is promoting the McIlvenna Bay copper - zinc project. US economic data is weakening marginally, and the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts is rising. Domestic short - term inventory is still being depleted. Copper prices are likely to continue to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to conduct short - term band operations and wait and see for arbitrage [42]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Considering the delayed resumption of production at the southwest base of leading enterprises and the planned production cuts and overhauls of some enterprises, the polysilicon production plan for May has been revised down. It is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and focus on arbitrage strategies [44]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - There are rumors that northern large - scale factories plan to resume production, and some silicon factories in Sichuan are gradually resuming production. Demand is still weak. It is not recommended to go long on the left side, and consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [45][46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The market risk appetite has been repaired, but the mine price has not stabilized, and the fundamentals are difficult to support continuous price rebounds. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots has increased significantly. Under the intertwined situation of multiple factors, there is no clear unilateral logic for lead prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and pay attention to high - level internal - external positive spread opportunities [52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The domestic social inventory of zinc has increased. The short - term spot market is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for previous short positions, and consider short - selling opportunities on price rebounds for those not yet entered [56]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The price of nickel is expected to oscillate in the range of 122,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to pay attention to band operations within the range [59]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG commodity volume has increased, and both refinery and port inventories are accumulating. The price has insufficient upward driving force, and attention should be paid to changes in Shandong spot prices and factory warehouse behaviors [61]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The CEA price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [65]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Natural Gas) - It is recommended to continue to be bearish on NYMEX natural gas [67]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - After a short - term rapid rise, PTA prices may start to oscillate and adjust. It is recommended that long positions consider taking profit and waiting and seeing [69][70]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The spot price of caustic soda is still strong in the short term, and the futures price is also expected to be strong [71]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the pulp futures price to stabilize and rebound [73]. 3.2.19 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The decline in Sino - US tariffs has warmed market sentiment, which may drive the PVC price to stabilize and rebound [75]. 3.2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Due to supply pressure, the processing fee of bottle chips is expected to remain low [78]. 3.2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Short - term maintenance of soda ash plants may support the spot and futures prices, but the medium - term view is to short on price rebounds [79]. 3.2.22 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Under the situation of weak reality and the absence of favorable policies, the glass futures price will remain in a low - level range, and attention should be paid to changes in real - estate policies [81].