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煤焦日报:地缘因素扰动,煤焦偏强运行-20250623
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 11:26
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 姓名:涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号:F3060359 投资咨询证号:Z0011688 电话:0571-87006873 邮箱:tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书,期 货投资咨询资格证书,本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度,独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 黑色金属 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 23 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 地缘因素扰动,煤焦偏强运行 核心观点 焦炭:6 月 23 日,焦炭主力合约报收于 1385.0 元/吨,日内录得 0.22%的 跌幅。截至收盘,主力合约持仓量为 5.06 万手,较前一交易日仓差为- 1363 手。现货市场方面,23 日焦炭第四轮提降 50/55 元落地,下游压价 情绪仍存,焦炭价格继续走低。期货市场方面,随着利多因素逐渐累积, 原先普遍悲观的市场情绪迎来转变,部分空单止盈离场,市场多空博弈加 剧,带动焦炭期货低位宽幅震荡。展望后市,从 ...
中东局势紧张给予金价支撑
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 10:30
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 13, the US-Iran nuclear negotiation was hopeless, Israel attacked Iran, and the Middle East turmoil escalated with a sharp rise in crude oil prices. After 10 days, oil price growth weakened and gold price first soared then declined, indicating market optimism about the Middle East situation. On June 22, US military planes bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, and Iran vowed to retaliate, which may boost gold prices. In the long run, gold prices have been oscillating at a high level since the second quarter, facing significant upward pressure. If the Middle East situation is under control, gold prices may remain under pressure in the third quarter due to the increased market risk appetite after the relaxation of US tariff policies [3][26] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review 1.1 Weekly Trend - The report includes a chart of the linkage between the US dollar index and COMEX gold futures closing price, but no specific trend description is provided [7] 1.2 Indicator Price Changes - From June 13 to June 20, COMEX gold decreased by 1.98% from 3,452.60 to 3,384.40; COMEX silver decreased by 1.15% from 36.37 to 35.95; SHFE gold主力 decreased by 1.99% from 794.36 to 778.58; SHFE silver主力 decreased by 1.44% from 8,791.00 to 8,664.00; the US dollar index increased by 0.63% from 98.15 to 98.76; the US dollar against the offshore RMB decreased by 0.14% from 7.19 to 7.18; the 10-year US Treasury real yield decreased by 0.08 from 2.13 to 2.05; the S&P 500 decreased by 0.15% from 5,976.97 to 5,967.84; the US crude oil continuous increased by 2.49% from 73.18 to 75.00; the COMEX gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.83% from 94.93 to 94.14; the SHFE gold-silver ratio decreased by 0.55% from 90.36 to 89.86; the SPDR gold ETF increased by 9.75 from 940.49 to 950.24; the iShare gold ETF increased by 1.76 from 436.00 to 437.76 [8] 2. Gold Price Soars and Then Declines - Last week, the gold price soared and then declined, while the US dollar index bottomed out and rebounded, crude oil showed weak upward momentum, and the three major US stock indexes did not have significant declines, indicating market optimism about the Middle East situation. Over the weekend, the Middle East situation heated up, which is beneficial to the gold price. On June 22, US military planes bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities, and on the day after the Fed's June interest rate meeting, Fed Governor Waller said that the Fed should cut interest rates as early as July [10] 3. Tracking of Other Indicators - Since late May, the net long non-commercial positions on COMEX have been rising. As of June 10, compared with the previous week, long positions decreased by 987, short positions decreased by 563, and net long positions decreased by 424. This indicator is more sensitive to precious metal price trends than gold ETFs but has a lower update frequency and poor timeliness [15] - Since late May, gold ETFs have started to rise, and silver ETFs have risen significantly. In early June, silver prices rose sharply with obvious ETF position increases, showing a combination of price and volume increases. Silver broke through the May 2024 high, and short-term capital attention has rapidly increased, expected to remain strong [17] - Since late April, the gold price soared and then declined, and the gold-silver ratio also declined from a high level. Silver benefited from its precious metal attribute and had a short-term supplementary increase. It broke through the one-year oscillation high, and short-term capital attention increased with strong upward momentum. The gold-silver ratio is expected to continue to be weak [20] - Since June, the spread between the 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields has decreased slightly overall [22] 4. Conclusion - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing that the recent Middle East situation changes may boost gold prices, but in the long run, gold prices face upward pressure and may remain under pressure in the third quarter if the Middle East situation is controllable [3][26]
中辉期货原油日报-20250623
Zhong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 05:58
| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 伊以冲突不确定性较高,有进一步激化风险,油价整体偏强。当前核心驱 | | | | 动由供需转为地缘政治,伊以冲突走向主导油价,短期市场较为担忧战火 | | 原油 | 偏强 | 扩大,周末美国参与进冲突,冲突有进一步激化可能性,伊朗扬言封锁霍 | | | | 尔木兹海峡,油价短线偏强,但不建议追多,可采用期权策略。策略:双 | | | | 买期权策略。SC【560-590】 | | | | 地缘冲突不确定性上升,油价震荡偏强,液化气短线偏强。成本端油价受 | | | | 地缘冲击,短线走强,并且伊朗 LPG 出口占国内进口比例约三分之一;下 | | LPG | 偏强 | 游化工需求继续回升,PDH、烷基化、MTBE 开工率上升;库存端利好, | | | | 港口库存连续下降。策略:上行风险较大,波动加剧,双买期权。PG | | | | 【4550-4750】 | | L | 空头反弹 | 原油大涨,华北基差为-25(环比+37)。2024 年自伊朗进口 LL、HD、LD | | | | 占比分别为 2%、9% ...
国防军工行业周报(2025年第26周):地缘政治不确定性提升估值,季报预期逐步落地促发反转-20250623
Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Overweight," indicating an expectation for the industry to outperform the overall market [3][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights that geopolitical uncertainties are increasing the valuation of the military industry, with expectations for quarterly performance to gradually materialize, potentially triggering a reversal in stock performance [2][6]. - The military industry is expected to see a gradual increase, particularly in June, driven by external geopolitical factors and the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan [6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the military's fundamental changes, with stable order inflows expected to translate into performance improvements starting in Q2 [6]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in precision-guided weapons, underwater capabilities, AI/robotics, and traditional aircraft supply chains [6]. Market Review - The report notes that the Shenwan Defense and Military Index fell by 2.01%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index dropped by 2.83%, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which fell by 0.51% [3][7]. - The report provides a detailed performance analysis of individual stocks within the military sector, highlighting the top gainers and losers for the week [14][15]. Valuation Changes - The report states that the current PE-TTM for the Shenwan Military Sector is 74.63, placing it in the upper range historically, with significant differentiation among sub-sectors [15][21]. - The report includes a valuation table for key military industry stocks, projecting future earnings and PE ratios [22].
大越期货沪铜周报-20250623
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 02:34
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报(6.16~6.20) 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号: Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面(库存结构) 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜冲高回落,沪铜主力合约下跌0.03%,收报于77990元/吨。宏观面看,地缘政治扰动铜价,美 国关税再起波澜,伊以摩擦加剧,全球不确定加强。国内方面,消费进入淡季,目前来看下游消费意 愿一般。产业端,国内现货交易一般,整体还是刚需交易为主。库存方面,铜库存LME库存99200吨, 上周出现小幅减少,上期所铜库存较上周减1129吨至100814吨。 期货主力 数据来源:博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源:Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡,2025过剩 数据来源:Wind 供需平衡 | | ...
中原期货晨会纪要-20250623
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 02:32
中原期货研究所 晨会纪要 2025 第(111)期 发布日期:2025-06-23 | 投资咨询业务资格 | | | --- | --- | | 证监发【2014】217 | 号 | | 中原期货研究所 | 0371-58620081 | | 0371-58620083 | | | 公司官方微信 | | 中原期货研究所 | 化工 | 主力合约 | 2025/6/23 | 2025/6/22 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅/% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 8:00 | 15:00 | | | | | 焦煤 | 796.50 | 795.00 | 1.50 | 0.189 | | | 焦炭 | 1,379.00 | 1,384.50 | -5.50 | -0.397 | | | 天然橡胶 | 13,860.00 | 13,900.00 | -40.0 | -0.288 | | | 20号胶 | 11,970.00 | 12,065.00 | -95.0 | -0.787 | | | 塑料 | 7,416.00 | 7,415.00 | 1.0 | 0.013 ...
甲醇周报:未来地缘问题仍是甲醇走势的关注重点-20250623
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 02:12
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Last week, influenced by the ongoing tension between Israel and Iran, methanol futures continued to rise, with the methanol weighted closing at 2,525 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 5.34% increase from the previous week. The fundamentals of methanol have not improved substantially. In the future, the focus will still be on the development of the conflict between Iran and Israel. If the conflict eases, methanol may fall significantly; if it continues, methanol will remain strong [6][7][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - **Futures Market**: From Monday to Thursday last week, methanol futures rose continuously due to the tense conflict between Israel and Iran. On Friday, there was profit - taking, and the futures fluctuated and consolidated. By Friday afternoon, the methanol weighted closed at 2,525 yuan/ton, up 5.34% from the previous week [14]. - **Spot Market**: Iran's methanol production unexpectedly dropped significantly, leading to a decline in exports. It is expected that the arrival volume in China in July will decrease. In the short term, alternative sources like Saudi Arabia and Russia cannot quickly make up for the shortage. This has stimulated the stocking demand of domestic traders, resulting in a continuous decrease in the inventory of northwest factories. The arbitrage window between the inland and ports has opened, but the overall supply is limited. The port is stronger than the inland due to weak downstream demand [14]. 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, China's methanol production was 1,997,846 tons, an increase of 15,190 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 88.65%, a 0.76% increase. The number of resumed production devices was more than that of maintenance devices [16]. - **Demand**: As of June 19, the average weekly start - up of the olefin industry decreased. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 83.53%, a 0.73 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week. The overall demand for traditional downstream products was weak [18]. - **Inventory**: As of June 18, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 367,400 tons, a 3.10% decrease from the previous period; the order backlog of sample enterprises was 273,800 tons, a 9.37% decrease. The port sample inventory was 586,400 tons, a 10.09% decrease [21][27]. - **Profit**: Last week, the average weekly profit of domestic methanol samples increased significantly. The profit margins of coal - based and coke - oven gas - based production increased, and the loss of gas - based production narrowed [31]. 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, the number of resumed production devices is more than that of maintenance devices. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0763 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 92.14%, an increase from last week [35]. - **Demand**: The start - up of the olefin industry will continue to decrease. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid, and chlorides are expected to increase, while those of formaldehyde are expected to decrease [36]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 347,600 tons, a continued slight decrease. The port inventory is expected to increase [38].
黄金:地缘政治有所升级,白银:继续冲高
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 02:01
2025年06月23日 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 | | --- | 观点与策略 | 黄金:地缘政治有所升级 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银:继续冲高 | 3 | | 铜:伦铜现货走强,支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝:等待库存拐点 | 7 | | 氧化铝:窄幅震荡 | 7 | | 铝合金:区间震荡 | 7 | | 锌:供应过剩或渐显,偏承压 | 9 | | 铅:供需双弱,震荡运行 | 10 | | 锡:紧现实弱预期 | 11 | | 镍:远端镍矿端预期松动,冶炼端限制上方弹性 | 13 | | 不锈钢:供需边际双弱,钢价低位震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂:临近交割月,关注仓单接货意愿 | 15 | | 工业硅:上方空间有限,逢高空配 | 17 | | 多晶硅:继续空配 | 17 | | 铁矿石:预期反复,区间震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢:宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板:宽幅震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁:板块情绪共振,宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅:矿端报价坚挺,宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭:铁水增量,宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤:铁水增量,宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力 ...
《能源化工》日报-20250623
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:49
聚烯烃产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月23日 免费声明 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料、但厂发期货对这些信息的能确性及完整体不作任何保证。本报告反映研究人 员的不同观点、见解及分析方法。并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。 在任何情况下。 报告内容仅供参考,报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不 风险自担。本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士,题权归广发期货所有,未经 构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价。 投资者据此投资, 广发期货书面授权. 任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发、需注明出处为广发期货。 6 关注微信公众号 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 张晓珍 Z0003135 些业期现日报 | 品中 | 6月20日 | 6月19日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L2601收盘价 | 7347 | 7399 | -55 | -0.70% | | | L2509 收盘价 | 7415 | 7462 | -47 | -0.63% ...
地缘提振供需宽松,盘面或将区间震荡
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:49
研究报告 橡胶周报 地缘提振供需宽松,盘面或将区间震荡 投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可【2012】1087 号 期货从业资格证号:F0305828 投资咨询资格证号:Z0011566 电话:0931-8894545 邮箱:2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考,请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要: 【行情复盘】 研究员:张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13705-14100 元/吨 之间运行,上周期货价格窄幅震荡,总体微幅上涨。 截至 2025 年 6 月 20 日上周五下午收盘,天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 13900 元/吨,当周上涨 25 点,涨幅 0.18%。 【操作策略】 预计天然橡胶期货主力合约本周或将维持区间震荡。 操作上,建议保持观望,激进投资者可考虑区间操作。 *特别声明:本报告基于公开信息编制而成,报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出,仅供投资者参考,据此入市风险自负。 3 9 研究报告 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格窄幅震荡,总体微幅 上涨。 报告日 ...