1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 9, equity index futures declined, while most commodities showed high performances, with energy & chemicals leading the raise [10][11][12] - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has increased the uncertainty of oil supply reduction and duration, amplifying oil price volatility. Oil prices are expected to trade with a strong sideways bias [16][19] - The conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, and geopolitical tensions remain a strong disturbance to heavy oil supply expectations. High-sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to swing widely [22][23][24] - The Europe route remains in a trend of rising both supply and demand, with spot freight rates bottoming out and rebounding. It is expected to trade with a strong sideways bias [29][31] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 China Futures 3.1.1 Overview - On March 9, equity index futures declined (IF dropped 1.1%, IH dropped 1.0%), and CGB futures also declined (TL dropped 1.13%, T dropped 0.22%). Most commodity futures rose, with SCFIS(Europe), Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil among the top gainers, and Tin, Palladium, and Platinum among the top decliners [10][11][12] 3.1.2 Daily Raise - **Crude Oil**: On March 9, the crude oil main contract rose 17.0% to 771.8 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased supply uncertainty. If tensions persist, near-month contracts may have more upside potential; if tensions ease, prices may peak and decline, but it's unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels quickly [16][18][19] - **Fuel Oil**: On March 9, the fuel oil main contract rose 17.0% to 4548 yuan/ton. The U.S.-Iran conflict has escalated, disturbing heavy oil supply expectations. High-sulfur fuel oil futures are expected to swing widely [22][23][24] - **SCFIS(Europe)**: On March 9, the main contract of SCFIS(Europe) rose 20.0% to 2236.4 points. The Europe route is in a supply-demand growth trend, with spot freight rates rebounding. It is expected to trade with a strong sideways bias [28][29][31] 3.2 China News 3.2.1 Macro News - In February 2026, China's PPI fell 0.9% YoY (decline narrowing by 0.5 percentage points) and rose 0.4% MoM. The CPI rose 1.3% YoY, with urban prices rising 1.4%, rural prices rising 0.9%, etc. G-7 finance ministers will discuss a coordinated release of oil reserves [36] 3.2.2 Trading News - Multiple exchanges issued risk alert letters due to complex and volatile Middle East situation. Exchanges also adjusted price limits, trading margin ratios, trading limits, and trading commissions for various futures contracts [41][51][52]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need to overweight A-shares, H-shares, gold, crude oil, and industrial commodities due to the deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East and rising concerns about global re-inflation [1][2][3]. Group 1: A-shares and H-shares - Multiple factors support the performance of Chinese equities, suggesting an overweight position in A-shares. The broad deficit is expected to expand further, and economic policies are likely to become more proactive as 2026 marks the beginning of the 15th Five-Year Plan. The stability and appreciation of the RMB, along with a moderately easing monetary policy, will support this outlook [1]. - The recommendation to overweight H-shares is based on stable expectations for China's macro policies and capital market reforms, which enhance market risk appetite. The decline in the risk-free interest rate in mainland China and the easing of the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy will also contribute to stable liquidity in Hong Kong [1]. Group 2: Gold and Crude Oil - The article suggests an overweight position in gold due to the accelerated restructuring of global order and deteriorating geopolitical conditions. The U.S. government's actions have significantly weakened its international credibility, making safety a scarce resource, with gold serving as a tangible hedge against uncertainty. Continuous purchases of gold by large asset management institutions and central banks will support long-term gold prices, despite potential short-term volatility from speculative funds [2]. - An overweight recommendation for crude oil is made in light of the rapidly deteriorating geopolitical situation in the Middle East, which is expected to provide a temporary boost to oil prices, despite relatively weak global oil demand and fluctuating OPEC+ production policies [2]. Group 3: Industrial Commodities - The article recommends an overweight position in industrial commodities, particularly copper, due to an upward revision in demand driven by construction, power grids, and electric vehicles. The expansion of AI computing power and modernization of power grids will create additional structural demand. The rising development costs and complexity of copper extraction may lead to a temporary increase in copper prices, making industrial commodities comparatively more attractive in terms of risk-return profile [3].

Core Viewpoint - Inflation is accelerating, with February CPI year-on-year at 1.3%, up from 0.2% previously, and PPI year-on-year at -0.9%, up from -1.4% previously. The simulated deflation index based on CPI and PPI weights is 0.42%, marking the first positive reading in 36 months, one month earlier than expected [4][5]. Group 1: Inflation Trends - The inflation trend shows a significant turning point over the past three years, with the monthly simulated deflation index turning negative in March 2023 and reaching a low of -2.16% in June 2023. It is expected to recover gradually, approaching zero growth by July 2024, before facing downward pressure again due to real estate adjustments and concentrated capacity in the new energy sector [7]. - The CPI's month-on-month performance in February 2026 did not exceed seasonal expectations, with a general increase in service prices at 1.1%, indicating a seasonal effect from the Spring Festival [7][8]. Group 2: CPI Components - Key components of CPI include seasonal increases in travel-related expenses, gold jewelry prices rising by 6.2% due to international gold price influences, and a 2.8% increase in transportation energy prices, marking the first rise in seven months. However, household appliance prices fell by 1.1%, likely due to concentrated Spring Festival promotions [10][12][15]. - Pork prices increased by 4.0% month-on-month, but high-frequency data suggests this trend may not strengthen, as prices have begun to decline again since late February [16]. Group 3: PPI Insights - PPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, marking the fifth consecutive month of positive growth. Increases were observed in mining, processing, durable consumer goods, and raw materials, while food prices remained stable and clothing prices declined [17][18]. - The rise in PPI is driven by sectors such as non-ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and the computer communication electronics industry, influenced by the AI revolution. However, coal and non-metal prices have seen rapid increases due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, despite February data showing a month-on-month decline [17][20]. Group 4: Future Outlook - March inflation data is expected to remain favorable, with significant increases in oil prices and a continued upward trend in domestic industrial product prices. The broad fiscal policy is leaning towards stable investment, which will benefit the construction and industrial product prices [23][24]. - The Brent crude oil price rose from $72.5 per barrel at the end of February to $92.7 per barrel by March 6, indicating potential upward pressure on inflation [24].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions lead to Singapore's PCS announcing force majeure, and styrene and pure benzene continue to hit the daily limit. In the short - term, styrene and pure benzene are prone to rise and difficult to fall, and should be treated strongly. Keep an eye on the US - Iran situation and crude oil trends [2][5] Summary by Directory Fundamental Analysis - As of the week of March 5, China's styrene factory output was 371,700 tons, a decrease of 700 tons or 0.19% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, a decrease of 0.13%. There were no new start - up or shutdown devices in China this week, and the output slightly decreased due to minor load adjustments of individual devices in the Northeast, East, and South China [1] - As of the week of March 5, the capacity utilization rate of EPS was 57.98%, a 45.81% increase from the previous week. The sharp rise in crude oil led to a rise in styrene prices, and cost support improved, causing EPS prices to increase [1] - The capacity utilization rate of PS was 51.5%, a 2.5% increase from the previous week. Market bullish sentiment increased, and some supplies were tight, leading to price increases in the market and by manufacturers [1] - The capacity utilization rate of ABS was 69.5%, a 1.2% decrease from the previous week. ABS manufacturers' quotes strengthened. Geopolitical conflicts drove up crude oil prices, and raw materials such as styrene also increased in price. There were production cuts by ABS manufacturers, and market bullish sentiment boosted trading [1] - The capacity utilization rate of UPR was 35%, a 20% increase from the previous week; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 77.41%, a 2.84% decrease from the previous week [1] - Singapore's PCS announced force majeure due to significant disruptions in maritime transportation and the supply chain caused by the Middle - East conflict. It is an important basic petrochemical supplier in Southeast Asia, with core products including ethylene (about 1.1 million tons/year), propylene (about 900,000 tons/year), and other aromatic hydrocarbons and MTBE [2] Macroeconomic Analysis - In the US, the non - farm payrolls unexpectedly decreased by 92,000 in February, and the unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.4%. The data for December last year and January this year were revised down by a total of 69,000 [3] - G7 finance ministers will hold an emergency meeting at 20:30 Beijing time to discuss the possibility of a joint release of emergency oil reserves [3] - The Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and Saudi Aramco has rarely launched a spot tender to sell 4.6 million barrels of crude oil [3] - Trump said that the soaring oil price is an "expected setback" and expects the oil price to drop rapidly in the short - term after the Iranian nuclear threat is eliminated [3] - There is a "production - cut wave" in the Middle East. Iraq's daily oil production dropped from 4.3 million barrels to 1.3 million barrels. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company in the UAE and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation announced production cuts over the weekend [4] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Under the geopolitical situation, styrene and pure benzene continue to hit the daily limit. In the short - term, they are prone to rise and difficult to fall. There are still expectations for styrene export transactions. Focus on the current US - Iran situation and crude oil trends [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the prices of various non - ferrous metals, and the market is in a state of high uncertainty [1][2][7] - Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends, with some facing high inventory pressure and others being affected by production capacity changes and cost factors Summaries by Metal Copper - On Monday, Shanghai copper increased positions and oscillated. The import price found support near the MA60 moving average, and the copper price rebounded. The risk - aversion sentiment due to the Middle East situation affected trading. The domestic SMM spot copper price dropped to 99,480 yuan, and the discounts in Shanghai and Guangdong continued to shrink. The SMM social inventory increased by 1,700 tons to 578,900 tons. Uncertainties in the war situation and high visible inventory may lead the Shanghai copper price to seek support at 98,000 yuan or even the weekly line level [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated sharply, with spot discounts in different regions. The domestic social inventory is at a high level in recent years, but the Middle East situation has increased overseas shortage concerns, showing an external - strong and internal - weak market. The aluminum price is volatile at a historical high, and the previous high level has resistance. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the price difference between them is expected to widen under geopolitical risks. The operating capacity of domestic alumina has decreased, and the oversupply situation has improved slightly. The Middle East electrolytic aluminum production cut has a negative impact, and the soaring freight has increased the import cost, but the overall oversupply prospect remains unchanged. The alumina price rose sharply driven by funds, and after the volatility soared, selling call options can be considered [2] Zinc - With the sharp rise in oil and gas prices, the US dollar index continued to strengthen, and the LME zinc had insufficient rebound momentum, unable to strongly drive the domestic market. The SMM zinc social inventory continued to increase to 262,200 tons. The domestic road transportation has recovered, and the downstream start - up has gradually returned to normal. The low - level stocking willingness has increased, and the import ore TC has continued to decline. The performance in the "Golden March and Silver April" peak season needs to be verified by inventory reduction, and it is currently in a high - level oscillation state, waiting for more directional signals [3] Lead - Recycled lead has been officially included in the delivery as a substitute, and the PB2703 contract has started to be implemented, reducing the delivery risk and effectively stabilizing the market fluctuation. The Shanghai lead market has entered a dual - pricing logic of primary and recycled lead, and the price center is expected to move down. However, the fixed discount of recycled lead to the primary lead delivery product is 150 yuan/ton, and the cost support of recycled lead is prominent when the lead price is low. After the festival, the downstream start - up has recovered quickly, and as the inventory raw materials are consumed, the downstream low - level stocking is expected to improve. The primary lead smelter's start - up is gradually recovering, and the SMM 1 lead has a discount of 105 yuan/ton to the near - month contract, and it is profitable to deliver to the warehouse. The inventory of recycled lead smelters is mainly concentrated in mid - to late March, and the refined - scrap price difference is running at a low level of 50 yuan/ton. The domestic and foreign inventories are still at a high level, and the import window remains open. Under the dominance of oversupply, the Shanghai lead is expected to oscillate narrowly around the cost, with a price range of 16,500 - 17,300 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, but the market trading was dull. The news about the Indonesian quota triggered speculation. The social inventory of nickel and stainless steel continued to increase, the market confidence declined, and the trading was light. There was only a small amount of rigid - demand restocking, and the terminal downstream procurement was basically completed, with almost no substantial purchasing intention. The premium of Jinchuan nickel was 9,500 yuan, the import nickel had a discount of 50 yuan, and the electrolytic nickel was at par. The spot price of Jinchuan nickel was resistant to decline, and the high - nickel iron price was 1,031 yuan per line point. The upstream price rebounded and then faced resistance and回调. The short - term market is still dominated by policy sentiment. The pure nickel inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 73,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory increased by 15,000 tons to 869,000 tons. The market is in a pre - festival state, waiting for clarity [6] Tin - Shanghai tin reduced positions, and the downward trend tested the MA60 moving average again. The situation between the US, Israel, and Iran continued to heat up, the short - term oil price soared, which affected the global economic growth expectation and greatly dragged down the stock markets of Japan and South Korea centered on the semiconductor industry. The Gulf situation may also affect the investment rhythm of AI semiconductors. The previous upward trend was based on domestic small - metal rights and interests, while the current market is continuously evaluating the geopolitical situation. The price is still in a relatively high - price area. After the middle and downstream choose the right time for point - price stocking, the price may seek support at the weekly K - line level, such as 350,000 yuan [7] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate rebounded and reached a high level, but the market trading was dull. A large number of hedging positions have been closed during the rapid price increase, and the strong spot and long - speculating positions are in the mainstream, with a fragile position structure. The total market inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 105,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,300 tons to 18,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 43,700 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 3,400 tons to 43,000 tons. The inventory reduction speed has slowed down, mainly because the downstream replenished inventory at the right time, the smelter has shown signs of unsalable products, the trader's confidence in domestic products has shaken, and the inventory in the middle - link is high, so there may be spot sales. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 1,970 US dollars, and the ore - end quotation has been flexibly adjusted downward. The short - term uncertainty of lithium carbonate is strong [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures rose and then fell, driven by the expected increase in energy costs due to the Middle East conflict. The SMM spot price of East China 553 silicon was 9,150 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton. The raw material prices in the week were stable, except that the price of Taishu coke increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the news of the increase in the external - purchased electricity price of large eastern factories needs to be confirmed. The industrial silicon production in March is expected to be 345,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26%. The large factories in Xinjiang have resumed production this week, while the start - up in the southwest has remained stable. The weekly start - up of downstream organic silicon has increased, and the DMG price has risen; the start - up of primary aluminum alloy has declined due to the increase in aluminum price and increased wait - and - see sentiment; the polysilicon price has continued to fall, the inventory is high, and the production increase is limited. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory is 553,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 7,000 tons. The short - term price is driven by the macro - situation, and the volatility risk should be vigilant, maintaining an oscillating judgment [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures rose and then fell. The Middle East conflict has led to an expected increase in energy costs, and the increase in European oil and gas prices may increase the domestic photovoltaic procurement expectation. On the spot side, according to SMM data, the average price of N - type re -投料 has dropped to 48,900 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3,000 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the post - festival start - up situation is lower than expected. The SMM - statistics polysilicon inventory has risen to 348,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4,000 tons. The high - inventory state continues to suppress the price. The short - term market fluctuates under the influence of macro - sentiment, but the fundamentals are still weak, and the rebound space is limited [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including financial futures, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black commodities, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. Geopolitical factors, especially the Middle - East conflict, are the core influencing variables, causing significant price fluctuations in multiple markets. Short - term market volatility is high, and the market is mainly driven by geopolitical news. Summary by Category Financial Futures - **Stock Index**: Overseas risk aversion may be transmitted to the A - share market, but the impact is diminishing. Domestic policy signals during the Two Sessions provide support, and the market is in short - term shock repair. Unexpected policies may drive the stock index to strengthen [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The policies of the Two Sessions have a neutral impact on the bond market. If the stock market adjustment intensifies, the bond market may rise due to risk - aversion. Short - term focus should be on the A - share trend and geopolitical situation [2]. Shipping - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The US - Iran conflict is the core influencing variable, with factors such as blocked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and postponed Red Sea resumption expectations being positive. However, issues like conflict sustainability, weak demand, and shipping capacity spill - over risks still exist, and short - term market volatility is extremely high [3]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The Middle - East conflict and non - farm data affect interest - rate cut expectations. Supply - side cost increases provide a long - term upward basis, but short - term adjustment risks due to postponed interest - rate cut expectations should be watched [4]. - **Gold & Silver**: The recent weakness of precious metals is due to the Middle - East situation weakening interest - rate cut expectations, leading to higher US dollar and bond yields. Short - term technical corrections after geopolitical risk mitigation should be watched [5]. - **Copper**: Last week, the copper price fell from a high, and this week it will be in a game between high inventory and peak - season expectations. The key window to verify the inventory inflection point is in mid - to late March [5]. - **Aluminum**: Geopolitical conflicts dominate the price trend. The US - Israel - Iran conflict affects aluminum supply in the Middle - East, and the price will show different performances under different conflict scenarios [6]. - **Alumina**: The US - Iran conflict has limited impact on the domestic fundamentals, but it follows the rise of aluminum prices. The medium - to long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has a strong follow - up relationship with Shanghai aluminum, and has strong support below [7]. - **Zinc**: Supply may be affected by the Iran situation, and demand - side inventory pressure is large. Short - term metal prices may be suppressed [8]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The annual nickel ore production estimate has limited impact on the industry chain. The first half of the year has a tight quota. The market is in the post - holiday recovery stage, and the peak - season expectation supports downstream demand [9]. - **Tin**: The Iran situation and non - farm data support the metal. Supply is tight, and demand is starting to resume. High inventory suppresses the price, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction speed and the development of the Iran situation [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short - term, the market's concern about demand has increased, but the long - term downstream demand growth logic remains unchanged [11][12]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industry is at the bottom of the current production - capacity cycle, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" process and supply - demand optimization signals [12]. - **Lead**: The current supply - demand situation is weak, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback on the market during the delivery week [12]. Black Commodities - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The Iran geopolitical conflict drives up the prices of raw materials, forming cost support. After the Two Sessions, the real - estate policy is stable, and the short - term rebound height is limited [13]. - **Iron Ore**: The near - term price has support due to tight tradable resources, but the upside is limited by high supply, weak demand, and long - term geopolitical structural issues [14]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: Domestic coal mine复产 and increased Mongolian coal customs clearance bring supply pressure. Coke production may increase, but the terminal steel demand restricts price elasticity [15]. - **Ferrosilicon & Silicomanganese**: The short - term cost support is strengthening, but the weak downstream demand and high inventory of steel products limit the upward space [16]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Middle - East situation is the core trading logic. The US - Iran conflict has led to supply shortages, and the market is highly volatile. Short - term attention should be paid to the Strait of Hormuz navigation and oil - producing countries' inventory changes [17]. - **Fuel Oil**: Chinese exports and the Middle - East conflict affect the Asian gasoline market. The short - term Asian gasoline price difference remains high, and the core drivers are geopolitical situation and Chinese export policies [17]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is expected to increase, and inventory has seasonally accumulated. The asphalt price will follow the cost - end crude oil, and short - term geopolitical factors are the most important [18][19]. - **LPG**: The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the core trading point. The supply disruption and US cold wave have pushed up the price. The length of the blockade determines the price trend [20]. - **Methanol**: The geopolitical conflict has changed the import expectation, and the MTO profit expansion may drive the methanol price to catch up with the olefin increase [21]. - **Plastic**: The Middle - East situation has led to supply concerns, and the supply - reduction and demand - increase pattern makes the short - term market run strongly [21]. - **Rubber**: Geopolitical conflicts support the synthetic rubber price, which in turn boosts natural rubber. The supply - demand利多 and macro利空 coexist, and short - term geopolitical factors dominate the trend [22]. - **Urea**: The US - Iran war has created a global urea supply gap, and the international price has risen. The domestic market is in a tight balance, and geopolitical risks are the key variables [22]. - **Pure Benzene & Styrene**: The US - Israel - Iran conflict has affected refinery operations. Downstream demand for restocking and export expectations are positive, and the short - term price is driven by geopolitical conflicts [23]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply - side maintenance may increase, and demand is stable but weak. The inventory situation is better than expected. The medium - to long - term supply is expected to be high [24]. - **Glass**: The current production and sales are weak, and the market is in the recovery stage. High inventory and supply return expectations limit the price increase, and demand needs to be verified [25]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and the inventory reduction is slow. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, and the price is in a weak and volatile state [26]. Agricultural Products - **Hog**: The current hog market is mainly trading the post - Spring Festival weak - demand reality. The price decline is supported by secondary fattening sentiment, but the upward driving force is weak [27]. - **Oilseeds**: The April China - US negotiation expectation, rising international fertilizer prices, and improved export expectations support the soybean price. The domestic market will follow the US soybean performance in the short - term [28][29]. - **Oils**: The recent strength of the oil market comes from the crude oil and diesel markets. Short - term attention should be paid to the US - Iran conflict and the Strait of Hormuz navigation [29]. - **Cotton**: The current domestic supply - demand tightening expectation supports the cotton price, but the high price difference between domestic and foreign cotton and geopolitical risks put pressure on the upside. The short - term price may be in a narrow - range shock adjustment [30]. - **Sugar**: The market lacks a clear trend - reversal basis, and the core contradiction is low valuation but lack of continuous upward driving force [31]. - **Apple**: The apple futures market is running strongly, driven by both fundamentals and delivery logic. The short - term support is strong [31]. - **Jujube**: The market focus is on the demand side. The post - Spring Festival downstream sales are average, and the price is under pressure and may maintain a low - level shock [32][33].

期货研究报告 2026年03月09日 棕榈油期货：宏观情绪升温支持油脂上行 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕榈油产量及出口数据；2.豆棕价差修复变化。 2、本周基本面数据周度变化： | | | | 棕榈油船期报价及进口利润测算（2026.03.06） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 华南 | 远期汇率 | 进口成本 | 盘面 | 对盘利润 | | 船期（24度） | （CNF) | | | | | | 5月 | 1130 | 6.8760 | 9311 | 9176 | -135 | | 9月 | 1134 | 6.8271 | 9278 | 9170 | -108 | 注： 1、盘面价格为当日大连商品交易所棕榈油主力合约11:00-11:30时盘面价格。 2、以上进口成本未含加工费，为对盘毛利；对盘利润=盘面价格-进口成本； 远期汇率为新加坡交易所外汇期货实时汇率； 报告导读： 1、行情回顾：上周棕榈油市场受地缘冲突、原油走强、产地减产预期共振，呈现强势冲高、高位震 ...

| | | | Million | 國投期崇 | 农产品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2026年03月09日 | | 豆油 | な女女 | 杨蕊霞 农产品组长 | | | | F0285733 Z0011333 | | 棕櫚油 | ☆☆☆ | 吴小明 首席分析师 | | 菜油 | ななな | F3078401 Z0015853 | | 豆粕 | ☆☆☆ | 宋腾 高级分析师 | | 菜粕 | ななな | F03135787 Z0021166 | | 玉米 | ☆☆☆ | | | 生猎 | ☆☆☆ | 010-58747784 | | 鸡蛋 | ★☆☆ | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【豆一】 国产大豆主力合约减仓大幅上行,跟腹整体农产品走强,受助于中东局势影响。全球原油和天然气供应中断担忧,价格大幅走 高，天然气推动化肥价格走高，再叠加原油上涨带动的运输、机械、农药等成本增加，共同推升农业投入成本整体增长。从肥 料端来看，中东市场在尿素和磷肥的全球出口中占比显著，而美国、巴西及印度市场中，尿素和磷肥在玉米、小麦的种植投入 中占比偏大； ...

Macroeconomic Insights - The macroeconomic policy aims for a GDP growth target of 4.5%-5% for the year 2026, with a focus on active fiscal policies and revitalizing the private economy[5] - CPI shows a marginal decline while PPI surged significantly due to geopolitical influences, particularly in energy and chemical products[5] - The U.S. non-farm employment data for February showed a significant drop of 92,000 jobs, much lower than the expected increase of 55,000[14] Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing military conflict in the Middle East, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, continues to create uncertainty and volatility in asset prices[8] - The geopolitical situation is expected to maintain high volatility, impacting oil prices and inflation expectations, which could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions[15] Market Trends - Global stock markets experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.93% and the S&P 500 down 2.02% during the week of March 2-8, 2026[9] - Commodity prices showed mixed results, with Brent crude oil futures rising by 28.68% while copper prices fell by 3.69%[9] Investment Strategies - Recommendations include overweighting A-shares and H-shares due to expected positive economic policies and stable capital market reforms[18] - The report suggests a focus on energy security and the development of a new energy system, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions affecting energy supplies[23] Sectoral Developments - The AI-driven pharmaceutical sector is witnessing significant advancements, with AI becoming a crucial infrastructure for drug development, enhancing efficiency and reducing timelines[36] - The telecommunications sector is preparing for the transition to 6G technology, with significant investments expected in satellite communication and high-frequency technologies[32]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical factors face significant uncertainties, and most varieties are expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. For the medium - to - long - term, strategies can be formulated according to the characteristics of each variety, such as constructing long positions in combination with the premium advantage of stock index futures [1]. - The escalation of the Middle East situation has a wide - ranging impact on the market, affecting the risk appetite, supply, and cost of various commodities, and leading to different trends in different varieties [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The deterioration of the Middle East situation and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories have led to a weak operation of copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Although the Middle East situation has suppressed market risk appetite, the continuous increase in the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East and the rise in energy prices have increased costs, so aluminum prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East [1]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of domestic alumina has declined slightly, but the inventory has further increased, and the fundamentals are still weak. The short - term price will oscillate [1]. - **Zinc**: The concerns about zinc ore supply due to the Middle East situation can support zinc prices, but the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The tightening concerns of the RKAB quota of Indonesian nickel ore have resurfaced, the quota approval is slow, the nickel ore premium remains high, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may affect the MHP raw material supply. Nickel prices may oscillate at a high level and are still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to go long on dips and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After the festival, raw material prices have risen, steel mills' production in March has increased significantly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and there is still raw material support. Stainless steel futures will oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to the demand acceptance. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: Inflation risks have increased, putting short - term pressure on the non - ferrous sector. Tin will oscillate with high volatility in the short term. Investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection [1]. 3.2 Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The continuous rise in energy prices has increased inflation risks and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations. However, the poor February non - farm payrolls in the United States have increased the risk of economic stagflation, and combined with the Middle East geopolitical game and private credit risks in the United States, precious metal prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Platinum and Lithium**: The continuous rise in energy prices has increased inflation risks and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations. The poor February non - farm payrolls in the United States have increased the risk of economic stagflation, and the Middle East geopolitical uncertainty remains high. Platinum and lithium prices may oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon and Related Products - **Industrial Silicon**: There is production increase in the northwest and production decrease in the southwest. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December decreased by 88 [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The inventory is at a low level, the demand expectation is weak, and the price oscillates [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The energy storage demand is strong, there is battery export rush, and there are disturbances at the mine end. It is bullish [1]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Rebar**: The inventory is at a relatively high historical level, and the de - stocking pressure needs to be tested in the future. The price oscillates [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: After taking profits on the long - basis positions, wait for the next entry opportunity [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply and demand continue to be weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive for the price. It is difficult for iron ore to have a unilateral downward market under geopolitical conflicts [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term supply and demand are both weak, the expectation of supply reduction has increased, and at the same time, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, energy prices have strengthened, and there is cost support [1]. - **Glass**: The short - term supply and demand are both weak, the expectation of supply reduction has increased, and at the same time, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, energy prices have strengthened, and there is cost support [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It mainly follows glass. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and in the medium term, the supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment, and the first round of spot price cuts for coking coal and coke has begun. However, the previous low has already factored in the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, so there is not much market trading. The digital targets given by the domestic two sessions are basically in line with expectations. As energy and chemical products rise and other assets perform poorly, the market is moving towards the stagflation logic. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the situation. Energy - related varieties should avoid speculative short positions, and coking coal and coke should be mainly on the sidelines. The industry can take advantage of the rebound opportunity to establish spot - futures positive hedging positions in the 05 contract [1]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the price of palm oil through the biodiesel demand. However, the current fundamental pressure of palm oil is large, with high inventory in Malaysia, the production season, and the consumption off - season. Be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the price of soybean oil through the biodiesel demand. However, after the end of the Southeast Asian Ramadan, the incremental export of domestic soybean oil may decline rhythmically, and the large arrival of soybeans in April will also bring pressure. Be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil [1]. - **Cotton**: Internationally, the USDA expects that the global cotton inventory will tighten in the 2026/27 season due to production cuts in major producing countries and increased consumption. China's import demand is expected to increase by 25%, and the export of US cotton will slightly increase but face competition from Brazil. Recently, the export sales of US cotton have reached a new high for the year, and Trump's visit to China may further expand the import of US agricultural products, which is beneficial to the export of US cotton. Domestically, the cotton inventory is high, the willingness of textile enterprises to replenish inventory is weak, the supply is abundant, the demand is stable and resilient, and the import substitution pressure brought by the internal - external price difference exists. The policy is stable, and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is the core variable. The domestic cotton price will gradually rise with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the global sugar market has a clear pattern of structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. India has a significant increase in production, Brazil's production remains high, and Thailand's slight production cut has limited impact. The overall supply of major producing countries is abundant. With the expectation of the new sugar - crushing season in Brazil, the supply pressure in the global sugar market continues to increase. Domestically, the supply of domestic sugar is in a loose pattern in the 2025/26 season. The production of cane sugar has entered the peak of concentrated crushing, and the domestic sugar production has increased year - on - year. The arrival of imported sugar is stable, and the industrial inventory is high. The total domestic supply is abundant, and the market has changed from a tight balance to a slight surplus. Overall, it is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar price will have a ceiling and a floor and will not fluctuate significantly, and the pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices will continue. The short - term inventory replenishment demand and geopolitical risks support the disk to oscillate strongly, but the downstream profit is poor, and it is expected to increase the use of other substitutes. In addition, pay attention to policy risks, such as the release of policy grains such as aged rice and changes in import policy orientation [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The continuous Middle East conflict has raised concerns about the increase in shipping costs and planting costs. The war risk premium supports the US soybean and soybean meal disks. In the short term, pay attention to the international situation. The sustainability of the war is difficult to estimate, and be cautious in unilateral operations [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The weak fundamentals of paper pulp futures are difficult to change in the short term. The whole industry chain is accumulating inventory, and the price increase letters of domestic finished paper are difficult to implement. Affected by the macro - sentiment of commodities, paper pulp futures have increased in price with reduced positions. Pay attention to the pressure level of 5350 - 5450 [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has increased, the log arrival volume in February has decreased, and the expectation of an increase in the foreign quotation is relatively clear, so the disk has an upward driving force. At the same time, the foreign quotation has increased due to the impact of shipping costs. Pay attention to the domestic acceptance [1]. - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized, supported by demand. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the expectation of crude oil has strengthened significantly. The Northeast Asian refineries are extremely dependent on crude oil supply from the Middle East. Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply and have to reduce their production [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The escalation of the Middle East situation, the obstruction of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the increase in market risk appetite have all affected fuel oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian asphalt imports on the domestic market is not large, but the price transmission of crude oil on the cost side affects asphalt, which is relatively weak among energy varieties [1]. - **BD and BR Rubber**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation has a great impact on the raw material imports in Northeast Asia. Refineries have chosen to stop production for maintenance and suspend external sales due to the lack of raw materials. The prices of BD and BR have risen significantly and still have room to rise. The cost of butadiene has strong support at the bottom, the price of Japanese light naphtha is still rising, and the overseas cracking device capacity is being cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene devices has remained in a loss state, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback is gradually being realized. In terms of fundamentals, the inventory of BD/BR may turn to a de - stocking expectation under the influence of upstream production suspension [1]. - **PX**: The Asian PX market's speculative sentiment has recovered, but the physical supply is tight, and the physical PX has begun to be in short supply. Due to the extreme market concerns, downstream replenishment has been rapid, and the polyester's operating load is also lower than expected [1]. - **Naphtha and Ethylene Glycol**: The Middle East situation is tense, and the market is in chaos. Asian naphtha cracking devices have undergone large - scale production cuts and shutdowns. South Korea, as the largest naphtha cracking center in Asia, has synchronously launched production - cut plans, and the overall operating rate has dropped sharply. Domestic refineries have also taken actions to reduce production and load to deal with the possible reduction of raw materials. Domestic ethylene glycol devices have risen sharply due to the reduction of raw materials [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The overseas pure benzene market has risen driven by the soaring energy prices, and multiple disturbances on the supply side are also affecting the price. The Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to ferment, providing strong support for oil prices. The middle and lower reaches are buying goods crazily, the market is cautious in selling, and the trading atmosphere is crazy. The overseas pure benzene devices have concentrated production cuts and declared force majeure. The overseas styrene market has shown a strong upward pattern under multiple disturbances on the supply side. The downstream and traders of styrene are replenishing goods crazily, resulting in an extremely tight supply of styrene spot. Any unexpected interruption may cause the price to soar further [1]. - **Methanol**: Iran's imports have a significant impact. The mutual attacks on energy facilities between the US and Iran have led to the shutdown of some devices, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has prevented Iranian methanol from being transported out. However, the current domestic production is at a high level, and the inventory is at the highest level in the same period of history [1]. - **PE**: The geopolitical situation has heated up, crude oil has risen, and the fundamentals are weak [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the clearance of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, freight has risen, and the ethylene - based method is facing the problem of raw material shortage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in March is flat, and the near - month purchase is still relatively tight. The premium of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has recovered, and the PG trend is strong. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, and it is expected that the basis will continue to repair and expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short - term demand for LPG is bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the disk. The port is continuously de - stocking, but the domestic civil gas is relatively abundant, resulting in a divergence in the internal and external market trends and a deviation between FEI and PG [1].