（原标题：金银铂钯齐涨 贵金属缘何连创新高？） 12月24日早盘，伦敦现货黄金再度走高，历史首次突破每盎司4500美元。 贵金属缘何"牛气冲天"？业内人士普遍认为，金银铂钯的大幅上涨已不是由单一的避险和抗通胀等传统 因素推动，而是美元信用、市场情绪等多重因素"共振"的结果。 "2025年，影响黄金市场的最大因素可能还是投资者对美元信用和美国主权债务的担忧。"在世界黄金协 会中国区CEO王立新看来，这是驱动全球央行、机构和个人投资者涌入黄金市场的底层因素。 "美元债务的大幅扩张推动黄金等贵金属成为投资者眼中更安全的资产，其价格也'水涨船高'。"上海息 壤实业黄金圈首席分析师蒋舒表示，美联储降息预期提升、地缘政治持续紧张等因素也对金价构成支 撑。 为何今年以来白银、铂金等品种的涨幅更大？业内人士分析称，从需求侧来看，上述贵金属的工业需求 持续增加，支撑其价格走牛。 世界白银协会的报告认为，受益于在导电和导热方面的卓越性能，白银正成为全球经济转型不可或缺的 关键金属之一。其中，光伏和电动汽车产业的快速发展，数据中心和人工智能领域的爆发式扩张，对白 银需求构成支撑。 铂金的前景同样被看好。在工业领域，铂金主要用于生产 ...

新华社北京12月24日电 新闻分析：金银铂钯齐涨，贵金属缘何连创新高？ "2025年，影响黄金市场的最大因素可能还是投资者对美元信用和美国主权债务的担忧。"在世界黄金协 会中国区CEO王立新看来，这是驱动全球央行、机构和个人投资者涌入黄金市场的底层因素。 "美元债务的大幅扩张推动黄金等贵金属成为投资者眼中更安全的资产，其价格也'水涨船高'。"上海息 壤实业黄金圈首席分析师蒋舒表示，美联储降息预期提升、地缘政治持续紧张等因素也对金价构成支 撑。 新华社记者任军、陈云富 12月24日早盘，伦敦现货黄金再度走高，历史首次突破每盎司4500美元。 受国际市场带动，以人民币计价的黄金价格续创新高。24日，上海黄金交易所现货黄金价格盘中一度涨 至每克1017元，金饰报价在23日突破每克1400元关口后继续上扬，24日周大福等金店的足金饰品报价达 每克1410元。 值得注意的是，金价大涨带动不少资金关注黄金市场的替代投资品，叠加工业需求持续增加，白银、铂 金、钯金等贵金属价格纷纷"后来居上"，近期涨势远超黄金。 数据显示，今年四季度以来，国际银价一路上行，涨幅近50%，12月23日首次突破每盎司70美元的历史 关口，24日 ...

光大期货：黄金仍是资产的重要配置选项 国信期货表示，尽管美国三季度经济增速创两年来最快，但消费者信心连续五个月走低，反映经济内部 存在分化。就业市场数据表现温和，而政策层面信息更为关键：特朗普关于"不同意其观点者不会成为 美联储主席"的言论，凸显了政治因素对货币政策独立性的潜在影响；下任主席热门候选人哈塞特再次 释放鸽派信号，称"美联储在降息问题上远落后于形势"；同时，美财长提议讨论调整通胀目标区间，可 能为长期维持更宽松政策环境提供空间。整体而言，市场对2026年降息的预期持续，且特朗普计划明年 初任命新主席的消息强化了货币政策可能趋于宽松的叙事，这为贵金属提供了核心的宏观支撑。展望后 市，贵金属板块短期仍有望维持偏强走势，但需警惕价格在连续大幅上涨后波动性显著加剧的风险。 ByteTree的首席信息官兼创始人查理·莫里斯（Charlie Morris）表示，虽然比特币、人工智能和科技行业 可能会在2026年后退一步，但黄金的牛市仍有持续的空间，而加密货币的疲软可能会增加白银的实力。 在莫里斯看来，印钞将导致持续的通货膨胀，这也带来了对贵金属和加密货币的需求。而对于黄金和比 特币的关系，莫里斯认为，两者并非 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：美国三季度 GDP 超预期 【市场资讯】1）中共中央总书记对央企工作作出重要指示强调，充分认识职责使命，更好 服务党和国家工作大局，为中国式现代化建设贡献更大力量，强化关键核心技术攻关。2） 全国住房城乡建设工作会议：2026 年着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优 供给，进一步发挥房地产项目"白名单"制度作用，加快构建房地产发展新模式。3）美国针 对无人机领域增列"不可信供应商清单"，中国商务部敦促美方立即撤销有关措施；外交部 回应美方将大疆无人机列入"受管制清单"：坚决反对无理打压中国企业。4）美国三季度 GDP 超预期增长 4.3%创两年最快增速，美联储青睐通胀指标核心 PCE 增 2.9%；10 月耐用 品订单环比下降 2.2%、远逊预期，但指标显示企业设备支出仍强劲；12 月消费者信心连降 五个月；劳动力市场复苏：ADP 周均私人就业连续三周正增长。5）特朗普提必要条件：敢 降息，"不同意我永远不可能成为美联储主席"；贝森特：美联储有调整通胀目标 2%的空间， 1.5%-2.5%或 1%-3%值得讨论；美联储主席候选人哈塞特：美国降息步伐远落后其他央行。 6）法国通过短 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

石油软实力的向上盘整：价值创造与战略柔性的体现。邓正红软实力理论指出，软实力通过创造价值、运营协同来实现目标。在石油市场中，软实力表现为 通过供需预期、地缘风险溢价等动态因素影响价格。例如，美国降息预期和地缘风险推动油价走高，本质上是市场对流动性宽松和供应不确定性的价值重 估。这种盘整反映了石油作为战略资源的软实力属性，其价格波动不仅由供需基本面驱动，更受地缘政治价值、市场预期管理等动态因素影响。特朗普政府 保留被扣油轮原油的行为，进一步体现了软实力的博弈逻辑。通过扣押委内瑞拉原油，美国不仅试图削弱马杜罗政府的财政能力，更传递了"规则制定者"的 信号，强化其在国际能源秩序中的价值主导。这种策略符合邓正红理论中"以柔克刚"的智慧，即通过软实力手段实现战略目标。 委内瑞拉困境：软实力缺失与财政脆弱性。委内瑞拉出口量虽不足全球供应的1%，但其收入对马杜罗政府至关重要。美国的行为被委内瑞拉斥为"海盗行 为"，揭示了小国在软实力博弈中的被动地位。邓正红理论强调，软实力缺失会导致国家在危机中陷入"价值创造能力不足—财政支撑削弱—社会稳定性下 降"的恶性循环。委内瑞拉的案例表明，当国家无法通过价值主导或经济活性争取国际支持 ...

今日周三（12月24日）亚盘时段，目前交投于1015上方，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报1018.96元/克，涨幅 1.05%，最高触及1022.88元/克，最低下探1000.50元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向震荡走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 在乌克兰方面，俄罗斯导弹和无人机袭击造成至少三名乌克兰人死亡，包括一名儿童，并引发大范围断 电，邻国波兰紧急出动战机。乌克兰军队从交战重镇谢韦尔斯克撤出，俄军正威胁多个关键城市，形 成"顿涅茨克弧线"。 俄罗斯国防部称，对乌克兰军工和能源设施发动大规模打击，乌克兰能源部表示多个地区实施紧急停 电。 此外，俄罗斯外交部副部长Sergei Ryabkov表示，俄美外交官就消除关系障碍举行会谈，但主要问题未 解决。这些事件加剧了全球不确定性，推动投资者涌向贵金属避险。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 沪金价格在历经前期震荡区间的充分整理后，至今呈现出显著的上涨态势，当前报价已成功站上1000整 数大关，并刷新了阶段新高。技术面上，沪金主力合约下方支撑可参考970元/克附近，下一阻力关注 1050元/克附近。 ...

光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 24 日） 光大期货能化商品日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.37 美元至 | | | | 58.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.64%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.31 美元 | | | | 至 62.38 美元/桶，涨幅 0.50%。SC2602 以 442.3 元/桶收盘，上涨 | | | | 0.6 元/桶，涨幅为 0.14%。受圣诞假期影响，贝克休斯本周提前三 | | | | 天发布钻机数量报告。数据显示，截至 12 月 23 日当周，作为未 | | | | 来产量先行指标的油气钻机总数增加 3 座，至 545 座，但仍较上 | | | | 年同期减少 44 座，降幅为 7.5%。贝克休斯表示，本周美国石油钻 | | | 原油 | 机数增加 3 座，至 409 座；天然气钻井数持平于 127 座。美国商 | 震荡 | | | 务部经济分析局公布的首次预估数据显示，今年第三季度美国 | | | | GDP 环比按年率计算增长 4.3 ...

宏观层面，地缘政治局势紧张进一步激发了市场的避险情绪。美国周二向联合国表态，将采取"最大限 度"制裁措施，意图切断委内瑞拉总统马杜罗的资源渠道；与此同时，俄罗斯发出警告，称其他拉美国 家可能成为美国后续施压的目标。尽管美国第三季度GDP数据表现强劲，环比年率达4.3%，超出经济 学家预期的3.3%，但市场对美元的悲观预期并未因此改变。此外，美国12月消费者信心指数下降3.8点 至89.1，低于预期的91.0，进一步加剧了美元的下行压力。周二，美元指数下跌0.36%，连续第二个交 易日走低，盘中最低触及97.85，创10月3日以来新低。美元的疲软态势，使得以美元计价的金属对海外 买家而言更具吸引力。 基本面方面，供应端，国内电解铝运行产能保持稳定，未出现显著变化，供应压力整体可控。需求端， 12月虽已步入行业消费淡季，下游整体消费表现偏弱，但尚未跌至冰点，需求仍展现出一定韧性。库存 方面，周末铝锭社会库存有所累积，市场数据显示，截至周一，库存累积增加2.7万吨至58.8万吨，这一 变化对铝价上涨空间形成一定限制。而近期铝价持续收高对下游消费有所抑制市场"恐高"情绪蔓延。同 时，新疆发运情况好转、在途库存上升，预 ...

Core Viewpoint - The UK government's demand for Chinese companies to sell their stake in FTDI is reaching a critical juncture, with a forced sale order issued last December due to national security concerns, marking a significant shift in the global investment landscape and highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions on business activities [1][2][4]. Group 1: National Security and Geopolitical Tensions - The UK government has cited national security risks as the reason for the forced sale of FTDI, which holds a dominant position in the USB bridge chip market, indicating a broader trend of Western economies decoupling from Chinese technology under the guise of security [2][3]. - FTDI's ownership is perceived as a threat to critical national infrastructure, reflecting how geopolitical considerations are increasingly influencing commercial decisions and leading to protectionist measures [3][4]. Group 2: Implications for the Semiconductor Industry - The forced sale of FTDI is expected to have far-reaching implications for the global semiconductor industry, emphasizing the need for China to focus on self-innovation and domestic production to navigate the challenges posed by international tensions [6]. - Companies like Qinheng, which produce similar USB bridge chips, may emerge as key players in the domestic market if FTDI's position is compromised, highlighting the potential for shifts in market dynamics due to geopolitical actions [6].