这一情形催生二战后美国决策者反思，因为这时的美元已经是世界货币，说白了美元不再是单纯的美国货币，而是成为了全球储备资产！那么，维系美联储 的独立性，才能保证美元的独立性！也只有美国的货币政策摆脱了政治干预，其才能维护全球金融稳定，成为全球央行，这才能让各国央行实时调整货币政 策应对美元周期，各国财政也能也能依据美元进行宏观调控，否则大家就都变成了美国政府的提款机！ 所以，当全球央行在1月看见美国政府已经完全不顾任何体面，司法部试图通过刑事调查达到施压降息目标，逼迫现任美联储主席鲍威尔离职时，大家才真 的着急了起来！而我们也就看到了这次历史性的全球主要央行行长联合声明！ 毕竟，作为全球最大经济体的央行，美联储的货币政策具有极强的溢出效应，美元作为全球主要储备货币，其汇率、利率走势直接影响全球资本流动、贸易 结算和资产定价。一旦美联储失去独立性，沦为短期政治目标的附庸，全球金融市场将陷入灾难性混乱。 全世界的央行，实际上还是有不少和财政部一样，深受政府调控管理影响的！但美联储是个必须从里到外必须相对的例外，1913年《联邦储备法》开始，到 1951年的《财政部-美联储协议》从法律层面明确了美联储的货币政策制定权， ...

Core Insights - The rising gold prices have sparked a surge in demand for bank safe deposit boxes, leading to a situation where they are in high demand but low supply [1][4][12] - Many banks in Beijing report that all safe deposit boxes are currently rented out, with waiting lists exceeding 100 customers at some locations [2][10] - The demand for safe deposit boxes is driven by increased interest in gold investments, as geopolitical risks continue to elevate the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset [4][12] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand for safe deposit boxes has significantly increased, with banks reporting a notable rise in inquiries since last year [4][12] - Banks are struggling to keep up with the demand, as the supply of safe deposit boxes has not increased in tandem, leading to a shortage [6][15] - Some banks have ceased offering safe deposit box services altogether due to high maintenance costs and low profitability [15][16] Pricing and Features - Different banks offer various sizes and pricing structures for safe deposit boxes, with significant variations in rental fees [3][11] - For example, at China Merchants Bank, the smallest box has a monthly rental fee of 50 yuan, while larger boxes can cost up to 42,000 yuan annually [11] - Postal Savings Bank offers a fully automated safe deposit box with advanced security features, including 24-hour monitoring and multiple verification methods for access [5][13] Market Trends - The ongoing geopolitical tensions and expectations of continued low interest rates are expected to sustain the demand for gold and, consequently, safe deposit boxes [4][12] - Investors are increasingly looking for secure storage options for their gold investments, as concerns about home security grow [4][12] - Some banks are innovating their services, such as offering promotional deals for customers purchasing gold products, to attract more clients [16]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold prices has led to a significant increase in demand for bank safe deposit boxes, resulting in a shortage of available boxes in Beijing banks [1][4]. Group 1: Demand for Safe Deposit Boxes - There is a booming demand for safe deposit boxes as residents are increasingly investing in gold, with reports indicating that many banks are fully booked and customers are facing long waiting lists [1][2]. - Some banks have reported waiting lists exceeding 100 people, with estimates suggesting that new customers may not be able to rent boxes until 2026 [2][4]. Group 2: Supply Constraints - The supply of safe deposit boxes has not kept pace with the rising demand, as only larger bank branches typically offer this service, and many smaller branches do not have safe deposit box facilities [1][6]. - Factors such as space limitations and high maintenance costs have prevented banks from expanding their safe deposit box offerings, leading to a decline in the availability of this service [6]. Group 3: Pricing and Variability - Different banks offer various sizes and pricing structures for safe deposit boxes, with significant differences in rental fees based on box dimensions [3][4]. - For example, at China Merchants Bank, the smallest box has a monthly rental fee of 50 yuan, while larger boxes can cost up to 42,000 yuan annually [3]. Group 4: Investor Sentiment and Alternatives - Investors express concerns about the safety of storing physical gold at home, leading many to prefer bank safe deposit boxes for their perceived security [5]. - Some investors are considering alternatives such as home safes due to the high rental costs and long wait times associated with bank safe deposit boxes [7]. Group 5: Innovations and Promotions - To address the supply-demand imbalance, some banks are exploring smart upgrades and promotional offers to attract customers, such as free rental periods for new clients purchasing gold products [7]. - For instance, Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank has offered promotional incentives for customers purchasing gold products, including free usage of safe deposit boxes for a limited time [7].

2026 年 1 月 13 日，美国多家媒体集中披露两条重磅消息，中国美债持仓降至 6887 亿美元，被英国超 越退居第三；美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔启动刑事调查，特朗普公开表态 "美联储很快会换人"。 这两件事叠加发酵，迅速引发全球金融市场震荡。中国为何连续减持美债？特朗普为何在此时对鲍威尔 动手？这场风波背后，藏着怎样的全球金融格局变局？ 美债持仓的战略再平衡 我们先从最新数据说起。美国财政部 TIC 报告显示，截至 2025 年 10 月，中国持有美债规模降至 6887 亿美元，同比下降 9.4%；英国目前持有约 8779 亿美元美债，增幅显著；日本仍是美债最大持有国，规 模约 1.2 万亿美元。 这里要注意一个细节。中国并非突然抛售，而是连续 12 个月有节奏地调整，2025 年 9-10 月连续减 持，10 月净卖出 118 亿美元，持仓跌破 7000 亿美元，创下近年来新低。与此同时，中国央行数据显 示，截至 2025 年 12 月末，黄金储备已连续 14 个月增持，达 7415 万盎司，全年累计增持 86 万盎司。 说白了，这不是恐慌性抛售，而是外汇储备的战略再平衡。通过 "减美债、增黄金" ...

这次特朗普搞出来的"二级关税"，就是在全球贸易战里又扔了一颗重磅炸弹。没什么铺垫，直接宣布：谁敢和伊朗做 生意，美国就给谁加25%的关税，甚至50%，而且一句"最终不可更改"，连缓冲期都不给，这种做法，确实够狠，也够 简单粗暴。现在全球都盯着美国的脸色，谁都清楚，这招不是头一次出现，可是像这样明晃晃地威胁全世界，还是头 一回。 其实，这套玩法的本质也不复杂，说白了，就是美国把自己国内的"二级制裁"那一套，直接升级成了关税武器。以前 美国喜欢搞"二级制裁"，专门针对那些和被制裁国家做生意的第三方，比如中国、欧盟、印度，谁不听话就制裁谁。 现在特朗普干脆直接让关税上阵，等于说：你要是和伊朗有贸易，别怪我对你下狠手。美国想的很明白，就是要用经 济大棒，把伊朗的经济命脉掐断，顺便也敲打一下那些"不听话"的大国。 其实，大家都知道，中伊贸易才是美国的核心目标。中国这些年一直是伊朗最大的贸易伙伴，双方贸易额一年能干到 600亿美元，这对伊朗来说简直是救命稻草。美国这次直接把矛头对准中国，目的很明显：就是要让中国不敢再碰伊朗 石油，打压伊朗经济，也顺带遏制中国在全球能源市场的布局。毕竟，中国要搞能源多元化，伊朗是绕不过去的 ...

Core Insights - The global financial market is experiencing significant turbulence due to two major developments: China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds falling below $700 billion, resulting in China losing its position as the second-largest holder, and the U.S. Department of Justice initiating a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with Trump suggesting a leadership change at the Fed soon [1][4]. Group 1: China's Treasury Holdings - As of October 2025, China's holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds decreased to $688.7 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.4%, overtaken by the UK with $877.9 billion in holdings [3]. - This reduction is part of China's ongoing strategy to optimize its foreign exchange reserves, having reduced its holdings for four consecutive years since falling below $1 trillion in 2022, with a notable sale of $25.7 billion in July 2025 [3]. - Concurrently, the People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 12 consecutive months, reaching 7.409 million ounces by October 2025, as part of a "de-dollarization" strategy to mitigate risks associated with a single currency [3]. Group 2: U.S. Federal Reserve Dynamics - A political storm has erupted within the Federal Reserve, with Powell confirming a grand jury subpoena related to a renovation project, which he claims is a political pretext for pressure to lower interest rates as demanded by Trump [4]. - The budget for the renovation project has escalated from $1.9 billion to $2.5 billion, raising concerns, but Powell insists that interest rate decisions are based on inflation and employment data rather than political directives [4]. - Trump's dissatisfaction with Powell has been evident, with public criticisms regarding interest rate policies, and he has hinted at potential candidates for the next Fed chair, including Kevin Walsh and Kevin Hassett, who align with Trump's desire for lower interest rates [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Implications - The unfolding events have led to market reactions, including a slight weakening of the dollar index, a 5 basis point increase in 10-year Treasury yields, and international gold prices surpassing $2,100 per ounce [6]. - Internal divisions within the Trump administration have emerged, with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin warning that the investigation could disrupt markets, while several Republican lawmakers have stated they will not support a new chair nomination until the investigation concludes [6]. - Powell's term as a Fed governor extends until 2028, and if he refuses to resign, Trump may face a challenging situation of replacing the chair without changing the board, potentially intensifying policy conflicts [6]. Group 4: Global Economic Policy Uncertainty - The dual developments highlight a surge in uncertainty regarding global economic policies, with China's reduction of Treasury holdings being a rational choice for financial security rather than an act of confrontation, while Trump's interference with the Fed raises concerns about the independence of central banks [8]. - The ability of the Fed to maintain policy neutrality is deemed more critical than who succeeds Powell; if monetary policy becomes a political tool, risk-averse sentiment in the market is likely to increase [8]. - Upcoming announcements regarding potential Fed chair candidates around January 21, the progression of Powell's investigation, and adjustments in China's foreign exchange reserves will be key variables influencing the global financial landscape [8].

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF (518800) has seen a rise of over 1.3%, reflecting a growing market interest in gold as a strategic reserve asset [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Gold is recognized as an important risk diversification tool, gaining market attention [1] - By 2025, driven by central bank gold purchases, rising fiscal pressures, and global de-dollarization trends, gold prices are expected to strengthen significantly, with a cumulative increase of over 60% [1] - According to the World Gold Council, gold prices may experience moderate increases in 2026 after consolidation, with an expected trading range between $3,750 and $5,000 per ounce [1] Group 2: Investment Strategies - Gold is seen as an effective hedge against macroeconomic uncertainties, with a long-term positive outlook as a strategic reserve asset [1] - In the medium to long term, the price center of gold is expected to rise, suggesting that investors may consider participating during subsequent pullbacks and gradually accumulating positions [1] - Investors are encouraged to focus on direct investments in physical gold, tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800), and gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

在 2026 年宏观层面，我国货币政策将继续保持适度宽松，通过降息、降准以及公开市场操作，维持低 利率、宽流动性的环境，这有利于权益类资产价格的上涨。在财政政策方面，将更加积极有为，通过多 种方式拉动投资、提振消费。新一轮消费品以旧换新补贴政策已经落地，根据去年的经验，受补贴影响 的相关消费品销量出现明显增长。 此外，财政部推出的 12 万亿元地方政府化债计划也将逐步落地，这有助于地方政府减轻付息压力、减 少利息支出，从而腾出更多资金用于惠民生、稳增长。 在海外方面，2026 年美联储大概率仍将延续降息周期，预计至少降息两次，每次 25 个基点。当前美国 经济数据整体偏弱，尤其是非农就业数据低于预期。美联储的货币政策目标主要包括控制通胀和稳定就 业。目前美国通胀率已经降至 3% 以下，虽然尚未回到 2% 的长期目标，但已经处于良性通胀区间，因 此当前政策重心更多转向稳定就业，这意味着美联储仍有继续降息的空间。 特朗普二次入主白宫之后，对美联储主席鲍威尔施加了较大压力，多次要求加快降息步伐，以配合其政 策诉求。这种对美联储货币政策独立性的干预，引发了多位前美联储官员的公开批评。鲍威尔也在公开 发言中强调，美联储 ...

Group 1 - The geopolitical tensions, including conflicts in the Middle East and Greenland, are causing global investors to be uneasy, which is expected to keep the demand for gold high in the short term [1] - The narrative of "order restructuring" due to frequent geopolitical events is likely to support gold prices, while the competition for key mineral resources will benefit silver, platinum, and palladium [2] - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed results, with notable increases in silver (over 8%) and fuel oil (over 6%), while lithium carbonate and caustic soda saw declines of over 3% and 2% respectively [3] Group 2 - The upcoming appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair is being closely monitored, as it may influence market dynamics [4] - Central bank gold purchases are expected to continue, alongside a trend of de-dollarization, which will support the upward movement of precious metals [4]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 2026年1月14日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。沪锡涨8%，沪银涨超8%，燃料油涨超6%，铂涨超3%， 低硫燃料油（LU）、纯苯涨超2%；跌幅方面，碳酸锂跌超3%，烧碱跌超2%，玻璃、多晶硅、焦煤、 菜粕跌超1%。 | 房 | 合约名称 | 景新 | 现于 | 天价 | 菜价 | 2008 1 | 无声 | 联 | 成交审 | 涨跌 | 持仓量 | 日增仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 护银2604 M | 22763 | 22 | 22763 | 22764 | 8.03% | 141 | 1 | 1276377 | 1692 | 344556 | 9686 | | 2 | 沪锡2602 M | 413170 | 1 | 413170 | | 8.00% | 623 | | 404692 30600 | | 42402 | -451 | | 3 | 燃料油2603 M | 2586 | 10 | 2 ...