Economic Overview - The macroeconomic environment in September 2025 is characterized by "strong production, slow demand, and low prices" with a GDP growth of 4.8% year-on-year in Q3, indicating a slowdown compared to Q2, but the cumulative growth for the first three quarters stands at 5.2%, suggesting that achieving the annual growth target of around 5% is feasible [1] Production Sector - Industrial production has shown strong performance, exceeding market expectations, with the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises growing by 6.5% year-on-year in September, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from the previous month. The cumulative growth from January to September is 6.2%, driven by the upgrade of the manufacturing sector, particularly in emerging products like 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles [1] Demand Sector - Consumer demand continues to slow down, with the retail sales of consumer goods in September reaching 41,971 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 3.0%, marking the lowest increase this year, primarily due to the diminishing effects of policy subsidies. Notably, the growth rates for home appliances and furniture, which were supported by policies, have seen significant declines compared to the previous month [2] Investment Sector - Investment growth has broadly declined, remaining at low levels. From January to September, manufacturing investment has increased by 4% year-on-year, indicating weakened growth momentum, although equipment purchases have shown resilience with a 14% year-on-year increase, outpacing overall investment growth by 14.5 percentage points. Infrastructure investment has seen a modest increase of 1.1% year-on-year, but the pace of major traditional infrastructure projects has slowed, partly due to reduced policy support and local government debt pressures affecting funding availability for certain projects [3] Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment has decreased by 13.9% year-on-year, continuing to be the largest drag on fixed asset investment. In September, the decline in the sales area of commercial housing has widened, with sales revenue decreasing at a faster rate than the sales area, indicating that the real estate market is still engaging in "price for volume" strategies [4] Bond Market Overview - As of October 20, 2025, the active bond index for 5-10 year government bonds has decreased by 0.10%. The government bond ETF for this maturity range has seen a recent price of 117.12 yuan, with a cumulative increase of 3.37% over the past year [7] - The latest scale of the government bond ETF for 5-10 years has reached 1.54 billion yuan, with trading liquidity showing a turnover of 1.38% and a transaction volume of 21.24 million yuan on the same date [8][9] - The fund inflow and outflow for the government bond ETF have remained balanced, with a total of 31.61 million yuan raised over the last eight trading days. The net value has increased by 21.56% over the past five years, ranking 33rd out of 179 index bond funds, placing it in the top 18.44% [9] - The maximum drawdown for the government bond ETF over the past six months is 1.09%, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [10][11]

Macroeconomic and Financial Analysis - Market concerns about trade tensions have eased, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth has accelerated, and the softening of the US President's trade stance, along with the introduction of multiple industry stability - growth plans, has boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term upward macro - drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2]. - For assets: The stock index is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, the black metal market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; the non - ferrous metal market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish; the energy and chemical market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals are expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and it is advisable to be bullish [2]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as coal and gas, airport shipping, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market has risen. The acceleration of domestic economic growth, the softening of the US President's trade stance, and the introduction of multiple industry stability - growth plans have boosted domestic risk appetite. The short - term upward macro - drive has strengthened, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - The precious metals market declined on Monday. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed at 970.32 yuan/gram, down 1.63%; the main contract of Shanghai Silver closed at 11742 yuan/kilogram, down 3.99%. Spot gold broke through the record high of last Friday, driven by the expectation of further US interest rate cuts and continuous hedging demand. It is expected to fluctuate strongly at a high level in the short term, and the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is advisable for short - term bulls to continue holding or reducing positions on rallies, and to buy on dips in the medium - to - long - term [3]. Black Metals Steel - On Monday, the domestic steel market continued to be weak, and market trading volume remained low. The overall economic downward pressure is still large, and market risk - aversion sentiment has increased. The real demand for steel is still weak, but it improved slightly last week. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 18.46 tons week - on - week, and apparent consumption increased by 139 tons. Supply is likely to decline further as steel mill profits narrow. There is no trending market in the steel market, with upward movement restricted by the supply - demand pattern and downward movement supported by costs. In the short term, the upward and downward space is limited [4]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore both weakened. The molten iron output has been declining for three consecutive weeks but remains at a high level of 240 tons. The logic of compressed steel mill profits continues, and molten iron output is expected to decline further. Steel mill raw material replenishment has temporarily ended. Global iron ore shipments increased by 126 tons this week, while arrivals decreased by 526.4 tons week - on - week. Port inventory increased by 253.77 tons last week. It is advisable to take a bearish view on iron ore prices in the later stage [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron rebounded slightly. The output of five major steel products has declined for two consecutive weeks, reducing the demand for ferroalloys. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5650 - 5700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore prices continue to be weak. The national capacity utilization rate of silicon manganese increased slightly, and daily output increased. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production area is 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5800 - 6100 yuan/ton. The price of 75B silicon iron tendered by Hebei Steel in October decreased compared with the previous round. The silicon iron and silicon manganese futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. Soda Ash - On Monday, the main contract of soda ash was weak. Supply is in the capacity - release period, with plans for capacity release in the fourth quarter, maintaining a loose supply pattern. Although the anti - involution policy is clear, there is no clear industry document yet, and the price is dragged down by supply - side contradictions in the medium - to - long - term. It is advisable to take a bearish view in the medium - to - long - term [7]. Glass - On Monday, the main contract of glass fluctuated weakly. Glass production increased slightly, and the number of production lines remained stable. As the "Golden September and Silver October" period ends, downstream procurement has slowed down. Although there is some policy support, overall demand is difficult to increase significantly. It is advisable to conduct short - term range operations [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - The US dollar declined last week due to dovish remarks from Powell, increased expectations of Fed rate cuts, and the alleviation of fiscal risk concerns in Japan and France. The suspension of Indonesia's second - largest copper mine has exacerbated the global copper shortage, supporting futures prices. However, the suspension is temporary, and production will resume in the middle of next year. Next year is a year of high copper supply, with an expected output growth rate of 5% (optimistic estimate) or 3% (neutral estimate), and the growth rate will fall below 2% after 2027. There is also a risk of the Panama copper mine restarting. Domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected, and social inventory is at a relatively high level. Domestic electrolytic copper production remains high, and demand is facing challenges. US copper inventory is high, restricting future import demand. Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [8]. Aluminum - On Monday, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly. The outer market is stronger than the inner market, resulting in a low internal - external price difference, which supports the inner market. Domestic aluminum fundamentals are not good, with slow de - stocking of social inventory and high aluminum rod inventory. London aluminum inventory has decreased recently, and overseas demand is not good. If institutions continue to withdraw aluminum from LME warehouses, it will support aluminum prices. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [9]. Tin - On the supply side, Indonesia has transferred six previously seized tin smelters to a state - owned enterprise, which plans to increase refined tin output. However, the crackdown on illegal tin mining and the adjustment of the mining approval cycle have exacerbated the global tin shortage in the short term. After the maintenance of large - scale smelters in Yunnan ended, the smelting start - up rate returned to over 50%. On the demand side, the start - up rate of tin solder remains low, and the improvement in downstream and terminal orders is limited. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and photovoltaic demand has declined. Tin prices are at a historical high, which suppresses physical demand. Weekly inventory decreased by 769 tons to 7017 tons. Tin prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [10]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose 0.05%. The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with strong demand in the peak season and continuous de - stocking of social inventory. The fundamentals are improving marginally, and the downward space is limited. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure range [11]. Industrial Silicon - On Monday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.88%. Weekly production reached a new high, but there was no inventory accumulation during the wet season. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the north. The 2511 contract faces the pressure of digesting warehouse receipts. The market is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large manufacturers [11]. Polysilicon - On Monday, the main contract of polysilicon fell 3.66%. The number of warehouse receipts is increasing, and there will be concentrated cancellations in November, bringing selling pressure. The current situation of high supply and low demand continues. Attention should be paid to the implementation of storage purchase news and the support of spot prices [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Against the background of the easing of Sino - US tensions, oil prices declined slightly. The long - expected supply surplus is gradually emerging, and the tanker carrying capacity has reached a recent high. Oil prices will continue to test the lower support in the near future [14]. Asphalt - As oil prices continue to test the lower support, asphalt also has the risk of breaking through the support level. The basis remains low, and the actual shipping volume is low. The pressure of factory inventory accumulation continues, and social inventory is being depleted in the East China region. Profits have recovered slightly, and production has increased significantly, leading to an increase in supply pressure. In the later stage, oil prices will be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and asphalt may face challenges due to increased inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the support of crude oil costs [14]. PX - Due to the continuous decline of crude oil prices and weak polyester demand, PX prices have followed the downward trend. Although the high start - up rate of PTA provides some demand support, PX is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in October due to the overall decline of the polyester sector [14]. PTA - Driven by the decline of crude oil prices, the overall energy and chemical sector has declined. Downstream start - up rates are low, orders are scarce, and terminal start - up rates are below the historical average. PTA processing fees have declined, and port and factory inventories are accumulating. The basis has decreased, and short - term trading should focus on short - selling on rallies [15]. Ethylene Glycol - After breaking through the previous low, the port inventory of ethylene glycol has rebounded. With the expectation of new production capacity coming on - stream, ethylene glycol prices will remain low. Downstream start - up rates are weak, and both overseas and domestic demand are sluggish. In October, inventory will continue to accumulate, and prices will remain low. If oil prices continue to decline, there is still a risk of further decline [15]. Short - Fiber - Short - fiber has adjusted following the polyester sector and is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the near future. Terminal orders have increased seasonally but with limited amplitude. The increase in short - fiber start - up rates has led to limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory depletion depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders. In the medium - term, short - selling on rallies may be considered [15]. Methanol - This week, methanol supply has decreased in the short term, and olefin demand remains high, leading to a slight reduction in inventory and an improvement in the short - term supply - demand structure. However, traditional downstream demand is weak, and there are plans for many plants to restart, increasing supply pressure. High inventory and external factors such as tariff upgrades restrict price increases. Methanol prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [16]. PP - The supply growth rate of the PP market continues to be higher than demand, and inventory levels are high, putting pressure on the market. The decline of crude oil prices has weakened cost support, expanding the downward price space. Attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream demand [17]. LLDPE - This week, the supply of polyethylene has increased, and inventory has accumulated significantly, suppressing prices. Demand is divided, with the start - up rate and orders of agricultural film improving, but the overall downstream start - up rate is still slow to increase. The decline of crude oil prices has weakened cost support, and the polyethylene market will be under pressure in the short term [17]. Urea - The daily output of urea is between 18.1 - 19.1 tons. Industrial procurement is stable, and agricultural demand is recovering after rainfall. Exports are shrinking after the window period closes. The market is cautious, and purchases are mainly made at low prices. The short - term market may be stable after a period of stalemate, but there is still a risk of decline in the later stage [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The release of USDA reports has been postponed, and concerns about Sino - US soybean trade continue, making the export prospects of US soybeans unclear. However, domestic crushing consumption provides some support. The new - season harvest situation of US soybeans is unknown. The sowing of Brazilian soybeans is progressing smoothly, and the weather conditions in the core production areas of Argentina are good. The CBOT soybean market is expected to remain stable with narrow fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of Sino - US soybean trade [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Domestic downstream phased replenishment has increased, and soybean meal inventory has decreased significantly. As of October 17, 2025, soybean inventory in major oil mills increased slightly week - on - week and significantly year - on - year, while soybean meal inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year. Apparent consumption of soybean meal increased significantly. Currently, oil mill profits are generally in the red, increasing their willingness to support spot prices. Although the expected arrival of soybeans in the fourth quarter is sufficient, there may be a supply gap before the new - season South American soybeans are available in the first quarter of next year. After the short - term over - decline, soybean meal prices are expected to stabilize and fluctuate. Rapeseed meal supply is tight due to low factory start - up rates, and the market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with inventory decreasing slightly [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - Soybean oil has entered the peak season, but trading volume has not changed significantly. The inverted price difference between domestic and foreign soybean and palm oil provides some consumption expectations. The basis of first - grade soybean oil in Zhangjiagang has increased. For rapeseed oil, before the supply of Australian rapeseed and direct imports of Russian oil increases, the de - stocking market supports the stability of the spot basis. As of October 17, 2025, soybean oil commercial inventory decreased week - on - week and increased year - on - year, while rapeseed oil inventory decreased [20]. Palm Oil - A large amount of palm oil arrived in China last week, and the arrival is concentrated recently, leading to an increase in commercial inventory. Malaysian palm oil exports have increased at a slower rate. As of October 17, 2025, domestic palm oil commercial inventory increased week - on - week and year - on - year [20][21]. Corn - The bumper harvest of corn in the Northeast and North China has come onto the market. The harvest weather is not conducive to storage, and farmers are eager to sell due to profitable prices, causing a significant seasonal impact on the market. Currently, corn trading at the grassroots level and ports is light, and the willingness of channels and downstream feed mills to build long - term inventories is still weak. However, the current price is close to the planting cost, and high - quality corn is in short supply. As the temperature drops, farmers may be more reluctant to sell, which will slow down the price decline [21]. Pigs - After the festival, the process of reducing production and inventory has accelerated, and pig prices have fallen to a new low this year, resulting in widespread losses in breeding profits. Recently, the price difference between fat and lean pigs and some regional restocking have supported the market, increasing the reluctance of small - scale farmers to sell and pressuring the market. Large - scale farms plan to increase the pace of slaughter, but supply is expected to decrease in late October, which will stabilize the extreme downward risk of pig prices. The far - month futures are slightly at a premium. Unless there is a significant increase in demand beyond the seasonal norm, it is difficult for pig prices to recover significantly. Attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather on pig farming in North China this year [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On October 20, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell; commodities showed mixed performances, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [9][12] - The industry presents a pattern of "weak current reality + strong future expectations" for live hogs in the fourth quarter, and the cycle is still in a downward phase in the short term, but supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 if production reduction is implemented [17][18][19] - Coking coal fundamentals remain relatively sound, with short - term support on the futures market, but there is a downside risk if important meetings fail to meet expectations [23][24][27] - Silver entered a correction phase, and long - position holders are advised to take profits in stages, while the central level of silver prices is expected to move upward in the long run [31][32] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On October 20, equity indices rose while CGB futures fell. Commodities showed mixed performances, with coking coal and coke leading the gains [9] - Among China's commodity futures, the top three gainers are live hog (up 2.9% with open interest down 4.1% month - on - month), coking coal (up 2.7% with open interest up 2.0% month - on - month), and apple (up 2.3% with open interest up 11.1% month - on - month). The top three decliners are silver (down 4.0% with open interest down 8.2% month - on - month), poly - silicon (down 3.7% with open interest down 16.7% month - on - month), and glass (down 2.4% with open interest up 4.2% month - on - month) [10][11][12] - Among China's financial futures, equity indices rose, with IC increasing by 0.6%. CGB futures fell, among which TL decreased by 0.4% [12] 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Live Hog - On October 20, live hog increased by 2.9% to 12155 yuan/ton. The industry presents a pattern of "weak current reality + strong future expectations" in the fourth quarter [17][20] - In the short term, consumption is in the off - season, monthly slaughter volume increases, and the average weight of live hog remains high. The supply - demand relationship is loose, and the cycle is still in a downward phase. In the long term, if the anti - involution policy to reduce the number of sows by 1 million head is implemented, supply pressure is expected to ease in the second half of 2026 [18][19][20] 1.2.2 Coking Coal - On October 20, coking coal increased by 2.7% to 1216 yuan/ton. Due to frequent coal mine accidents and production inspections, there is limited room for further growth in coal mine production [23][27] - The fundamentals are relatively sound, with short - term support on the futures market, but there is a risk of decline if important meetings fail to meet expectations [24][27] - On the supply side, some coal mines in Shanxi resumed normal operations, while supply in Inner Mongolia Wuhai is still restricted. Import at Ganqimaodu Port decreased. On the demand side, coke output declined month - on - month, but short - term rigid demand provides support, and overall inventories remain at a low level [25][26][27] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Silver - On October 20, silver decreased by 4.0% to 11742 yuan/kg. Key data disclosure and events such as U.S. non - farm payrolls, inflation, retail data, U.S. government shutdown, and China - U.S. trade negotiations should be focused on [30][32] - With the transfer of silver inventories from New York to London, the spot supply tightness in LBMA has eased. Silver entered a correction phase, and long - position holders are advised to take profits in stages. In the long term, the central level of silver prices is expected to move upward [31][32] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The fourth plenary session of the 20th CPC Central Committee began in Beijing on the morning of October 20 [36][38][39] - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP reached 101.5036 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.2%. In the third quarter, GDP was 35.4500 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8% [36][38][39] - In September 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4.1971 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. From January to September, it was 36.5877 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.5% [38][39] - In September 2025, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size actually increased by 6.5% year - on - year. From January to September, it increased by 6.2% [38][39] - From January to September 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 37.1535 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Private fixed asset investment fell by 3.1% year - on - year [38][39] 2.2 Industry News - Starting from the night trading session on October 28, 2025, Dalian Commodity Exchange will expand the investment scope of Qualified Foreign Investors to LLDPE, PVC, PP Monthly Average Price Futures Contracts [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the overseas macro - aspect, the current volatility level is in a low - lying stage, and the "bad news is good news" logic may be nearing its end. The internal fluctuation energy in the US is being accumulated and may rise periodically. In the domestic macro - aspect, the September economic and financial data showed relative resilience, and policy expectations were further strengthened, which may support low - valued domestic assets in the fourth quarter. - Next week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major assets. Overseas, the catalytic elasticity of government shutdown and data vacuum on interest - rate cut expectations has decreased, and the marginal support for risk assets may decline. In China, policy changes may lead to a rebound in low - valued domestic commodity assets [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4506.8 with a daily increase of 0.48%, the SSE 50 futures at 2970.4 with a daily increase of 0.25%, the CSI 500 futures at 6909.2 with a daily increase of 0.67%, and the CSI 1000 futures at 7059.2 with a daily increase of 1.15%. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year treasury bond futures closed at 102.334 with a daily decrease of 0.04%, the 5 - year at 105.655 with a daily decrease of 0.12%, the 10 - year at 108.11 with a daily decrease of 0.07%, and the 30 - year at 115.3 with a daily decrease of 0.49%. - **Foreign Exchange**: The central parity rate of the US dollar was 7.0973, up 24 pips. - **Interest Rates**: The 10Y Chinese treasury bond yield was 1.82%, down 1.6 bp, and the 10Y US treasury bond yield was 4.02%, up 3 bp [4]. 3.2 Popular Industry - **Electronics**: The index was 11821, with a daily increase of 2.01% and an annual increase of 51.00%. - **Power Equipment and New Energy**: The index was 11404, with a daily increase of 2.68% and an annual increase of 35.68%. - **Consumer Services**: The index was 6859, with a daily increase of 0.08% and an annual increase of 7.30% [4]. 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil closed at 57.25, up 0.53% daily; ICE Brent crude oil at 61.34, up 0.52% daily. - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 4267.9, down 1.76% daily; COMEX silver at 50.625, down 5.25% daily. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: LME copper closed at 2778.5, down 0.63% daily; LME zinc at 2942.5, down 0.86% daily [4]. 3.4 Domestic Main Commodities - **Gold**: The price was 970.32, down 2.95% daily and up 57.11% annually. - **Silver**: The price was 11742, up 7.55% daily and up 15.74% annually. - **Coke**: The price was 2.03% higher daily and 5.36% higher weekly [5]. 3.5 Viewpoint Highlights - **Finance**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to technology - event - catalyzed active growth styles; stock index options are expected to fluctuate; treasury bond futures are expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to rise in a volatile manner due to the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September [8]. - **Shipping**: The container shipping route to Europe is expected to fluctuate as the peak season fades in the third quarter [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Steel products, iron ore, coke, and other varieties are expected to fluctuate, with different influencing factors for each [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Most base metals are expected to fluctuate, waiting for the clarity of macro - policies [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Most energy and chemical products are expected to decline or fluctuate, affected by factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - policies [10]. - **Agriculture**: Agricultural products show a differentiated trend, with most expected to fluctuate, and some like sugar and pulp expected to decline in a volatile manner [10].

Supply and Demand - Construction starts remain at historically low levels, with cement dispatch rates and grinding mill operation rates also low compared to historical averages[13] - Industrial production is at a historically high level, with PX operating rates maintaining historical highs and PTA rates at historical lows[22] - Building demand remains weak, while automotive sales show signs of recovery, with rolling sales of passenger cars increasing year-on-year[31] Price Trends - Domestic industrial prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the Nanhua Comprehensive Index showing a downward trend[42] - International commodity prices are mixed, with oil prices declining while copper, aluminum, and gold prices are rising[39] Real Estate Market - New housing transactions show an expanding year-on-year decline, with a 3% decrease in transaction area compared to the previous two weeks, and declines of -32% and -28% compared to 2023 and 2024 respectively[58] - Second-hand housing transactions are weakening, with significant year-on-year declines in major cities: Beijing -38%, Shanghai -23%, and Shenzhen -34%[62] Export Performance - Export growth for the period before October 19 is estimated at 2-3%, with port throughput increasing by 8.1% year-on-year[65] Liquidity Conditions - Recent weeks have seen a decline in funding rates, with R007 at 1.47% and DR007 at 1.41% as of October 17[67] - The central bank has implemented a net withdrawal of 22,018 million yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[69] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and stronger-than-expected policy measures[72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For aluminum, the macro sentiment still provides support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the guidance of inventory consumption on the price direction [10] - For zinc, the short - term price has certain support following the overall non - ferrous metals at a high level, but the medium - and long - term supply increase still exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Colorful Weekly Market Review - Copper: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 84,390, down 1,520 (-1.77%) from October 10. The spot price was 84,835, down 1,840 (-2.12%) [7] - Aluminum: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 20,910, down 70 (-0.33%) from October 10. The spot price was 20,960, down 60 (-0.29%) [7] - Zinc: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 21,815, down 455 (-2.04%) from October 10. The spot price was 21,856, down 854 (-3.76%) [7] - Tin: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 280,750, down 5,600 (-1.96%) from October 10. The spot price was 281,250, down 7,000 (-2.43%) [7] - Nickel: The closing price of the futures main contract on October 17, 2025 was 121,160, down 1,020 (-0.83%) from October 10. The spot price was 122,780, down 1,080 (-0.87%) [7] 3.2 This Week's Non - Ferrous Market Forecast 3.2.1 Aluminum - Logic: Last week, the aluminum price remained high. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October and again in December. The shutdown of the US federal government has hindered the release of key macro - economic data. Domestically, the operating capacity of alumina is at a high level, and the supply surplus pressure still exists. As winter storage approaches, the spot procurement enthusiasm of some aluminum plants has increased, but the overall spot market is still in a state of loose supply. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises was 62.5% last week, down 1.4 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 20, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 625,000 tons, down 2,000 tons from last Thursday and 25,000 tons from last Monday [9] - Viewpoint: The macro sentiment still provides support, and it is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the near future. Attention should be paid to the guidance of inventory consumption on the price direction [10] - Later attention/market risks: Pay attention to the development of the geopolitical crisis, the implementation of macro - policies, the situation of supply increase, and the release of consumption [11] 3.2.2 Zinc - Logic: Last week, the zinc price回调 downward. The processing fee of domestic zinc concentrates continued to decline. The SMM Zn50 domestic weekly TC average price decreased by 100 yuan/metal ton to 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the SMM imported zinc concentrate index increased by 0.25 US dollars/dry ton to 118.75 US dollars/dry ton. The galvanizing operating rate last week was 58.05%, up 11.21 percentage points from the previous week. As of October 20, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 165,300 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from October 13 and 2,600 tons from October 16 [13] - Viewpoint: The short - term price has certain support following the overall non - ferrous metals at a high level, but the medium - and long - term supply increase still exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events [13] - Later attention/market risks: Pay attention to the implementation of macro - policies, the release of mine - end production, and the release of consumption [12] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Aluminum - Bauxite: - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan in the week of October 17 was 650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the week of October 10; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan was 580 yuan/ton, unchanged from the week of October 10; the average price of the imported bauxite index was 74.45 US dollars/ton, down 0.39 from the week of October 10 [17] - Arrival and departure volume: The arrival volume at ports in the week of October 17 was 3743,700 tons, up 878,500 tons from the week of October 10; the departure volume at ports was 406,390 tons, up 24,130 tons from the week of October 10 [20] - Alumina: - Price and cost - profit: The domestic price in Henan in the week of October 17 was 2,905 yuan/ton, down 45 from the week of October 10; the full cost was 2,851.5 yuan/ton, down 25.1 from the week of October 10; the profit in Shanxi was - 60.06 yuan/ton, down 32.72 from the week of October 10 [23] - Electrolytic aluminum: - Total cost: The total cost in the week of October 17 was 16,144.6 yuan/ton, down 68.1 from the week of October 10 [27] - Regional price difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum in the week of October 17 was - 110 yuan/ton, down 40 from the week of October 10 [27] - Operating rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables in the week of October 16 was 64, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 72.3, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum plates and strips was 68, unchanged from the week of October 9; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 53.5, down 0.1 from the week of October 9; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 58.4, up 0.4 from the week of October 9; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.6, down 0.3 from the week of October 9 [29][30] - Inventory: The bonded area inventory in Shanghai in the week of October 16 was 60,300 tons, down 5,000 tons from the week of October 9; the total bonded area inventory was 80,300 tons, down 7,000 tons from the week of October 9; the social inventory in the week of October 20 was 625,000 tons, down 25,000 tons from the week of October 13; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in major consumption areas in the week of October 13 was 145,000 tons, unchanged from the week of September 29; the SHFE inventory in the week of October 17 was 122,028 tons, down 2,749 tons from the week of October 10; the LME inventory in the week of October 16 was 491,225 tons, down 17,600 tons from the week of October 9 [35][36] - Spot: - Basis: The basis for the current month in the week of October 17 was 65 yuan/ton, up 65 from the week of October 10; the basis for the main contract was 40 yuan/ton, up 40 from the week of October 10; the basis for the third - continuous contract was 25 yuan/ton, up 40 from the week of October 10 [41] - Monthly spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract in the week of October 17 was - 25 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10; the spread between the current month and the third - continuous contract was - 40 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10 [42] 3.3.2 Zinc - Zinc concentrate: - Price and processing fee: The price of domestic zinc concentrates in the week of October 17 was 16,924 yuan/metal ton, down 210 from the week of October 10; the domestic processing fee was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, down 100 from the week of October 10; the imported processing fee was 118.75 US dollars/dry ton, up 0.2 from the week of October 10 [49] - Production profit, import profit and loss, and inventory: The enterprise production profit in the week of October 17 was 4,024 yuan/metal ton, down 260 from the week of October 10; the import profit and loss was - 2,255.38 yuan/ton, down 177.47 from the week of October 10; the inventory of imported zinc concentrates at Lianyungang in the week of October 17 was 140,000 physical tons, unchanged from the week of October 10 [52] - Refined zinc: - Inventory: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM seven regions in the week of October 20 was 165,300 tons, up 2,200 tons from the week of October 13; the bonded area inventory of zinc ingots in the week of October 16 was 8,000 tons, unchanged from the week of October 9; the SHFE refined zinc inventory in the week of October 17 was 109,627 tons, up 2,677 tons from the week of October 10; the LME zinc inventory in the week of October 16 was 38,025 tons, up 75 tons from the week of October 9 [55] - Galvanized: - Output: The output in the week of October 16 was 336,490 tons, up 58,860 tons from the week of October 9 [58] - Operating rate: The operating rate in the week of October 16 was 58.05, up 11.22 from the week of October 9 [58] - Inventory: The raw material inventory in the week of October 16 was 13,910 tons, down 1,650 tons from the week of October 9; the finished product inventory was 366,800 tons, down 3,700 tons from the week of October 9 [58] - Zinc: - Basis: The basis for the current month of SMM 0 zinc ingots in the week of October 17 was 35 yuan/ton, down 45 from the week of October 10; the basis for the main contract was 35 yuan/ton, up 5 from the week of October 10; the basis for the third - continuous contract was - 55 yuan/ton, down 25 from the week of October 10 [61] - Monthly spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract in the week of October 17 was 0 yuan/ton, up 50 from the week of October 10; the spread between the current month and the third - continuous contract was - 90 yuan/ton, up 20 from the week of October 10 [65]

Economic Overview - The GDP for the first three quarters reached 10,150.36 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.2% at constant prices, indicating a stable economic growth rate in Q3 and a likelihood of achieving the annual growth target [1][5] - The overall economic environment shows a structural impact from changes in supply and demand, with a need for objective recognition of slowing investment growth and the necessity to boost consumption [1][5] Financial Data - In September, new social financing amounted to 3.53 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, reflecting a slight decline in the growth rate of RMB loans [1][2] - New RMB loans in September were 1.29 trillion yuan, down 300 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily due to weak consumer sentiment and a slowdown in corporate investment expansion [1][2] Household Sector - In September, short-term loans for households increased by 142.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 127.9 billion yuan, while medium to long-term loans rose by 250 billion yuan, showing a slight year-on-year increase [2] - The implementation of the personal consumption loan subsidy scheme introduced in August is still pending, and its stimulating effect on short-term loans requires time to materialize [2] Corporate Sector - In September, corporate sector loans totaled 1.22 trillion yuan, with short-term loans at 710 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans at 910 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 50 billion yuan [2] - The investment willingness of enterprises remains subdued, with insufficient new orders impacting investment expansion [2][6] Government Sector - In September, net financing from government bonds was 1.1886 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 347.1 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in bond issuance compared to the previous high base [2] - The focus of macroeconomic policy is on structural adjustments rather than total volume, emphasizing the effective use of existing policies [2][8] Inflation and Prices - In September, the CPI decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, while the core CPI increased by 1%, marking the fifth consecutive month of growth in core CPI [3][4] - The rise in core CPI is driven by increased prices in categories such as old-for-new exchanges and gold jewelry [3][4] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with infrastructure investment growing by 1.1% and manufacturing investment increasing by 4% [5][6] - The shift from investment-driven growth to innovation-driven growth is evident, with funds moving towards new technologies and industries [5][6] Consumption Patterns - Consumer spending showed signs of slowing down in Q3, with retail sales growth decelerating compared to earlier in the year [7] - The effectiveness of fiscal policies aimed at boosting personal consumption loans and the financial market's ability to enhance residents' income will be crucial for future consumption growth [7] Foreign Trade - Exports increased by 6.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with a notable 8.3% growth in September, demonstrating resilience in foreign trade despite global uncertainties [7] - Factors contributing to export resilience include preemptive actions by foreign trade enterprises and strong growth in sectors like new energy vehicles and solar products [7] Future Outlook - The completion of the annual growth target is highly probable, with Q4 expected to focus on stability and effective use of existing policies [8] - Increased fiscal spending towards the end of the year is anticipated to support necessary growth rates, while monetary policy will concentrate on structural tools [8]

南华期货原油产业周报 2025年10月20日 —— 地缘弱化，宏观利空 杨歆悦（投资咨询证号：Z0022518） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前原油市场呈 "短期扰动难改中长期弱势" 格局。短期看，加沙停火后地缘支撑大幅弱化，仅能引发小幅反 弹；美国政府停摆、中美经贸紧张等宏观利空持续，虽银行信贷问题暂未引发恐慌，但避险情绪仍存，原油 日线受 5 日均线压制，逐步逼近 60 美元支撑。中长期而言，基本面持续转弱，无实质性利好支撑，市场逻辑 以利空为主，波动重心不断下移。若 Brent 60 美元支撑失守，下方空间或进一步扩大，后续需警惕中期跌势 形成，补全第四轮波动周期最后一段，整体仍需优先关注下行风险。 地缘政治风险指数和布伦特原油 source： 南华研究,wind,彭博 地缘政治风险指数 布伦特原油期货价格连1(右轴) 美元/桶 20/12 21/12 22/12 23/12 24/12 100 200 300 400 0 50 100 150 WTI油价与波动率 source： 彭博,南华研究,同花顺 美元/桶 美国原油E ...

Economic Indicators - The ICHI Composite Economic Index slightly declined this week but remains in the contraction zone, indicating stable economic fundamentals[1] - The Consumer Confidence Index has rebounded, returning to the expansion zone, driven by strong holiday consumption in accommodation, dining, transportation, and cultural tourism[1] - The Investment Confidence Index has slightly increased but is still in the contraction zone, with manufacturing investment supported by structural upgrades and technology innovation[1] Inflation and Prices - In September 2025, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month, driven by seasonal price rises in fresh vegetables, eggs, and fruits, while service prices fell by 0.3% due to holiday effects[2] - Year-on-year, the CPI decreased by 0.3%, with a narrowing decline of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a 4.4% drop in food prices[2] - The core CPI rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first return to 1% in 19 months, indicating a continued recovery in domestic demand[2] Industrial Prices - The PPI remained flat month-on-month in September but decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month[3] - Upstream industry prices stabilized, with notable improvements in coal processing (+3.8%) and black metal smelting (+0.2%) sectors[3] - The year-on-year decline in PPI was mitigated by the advancement of a unified national market and structural support from high-end and green manufacturing developments[3] Global Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is experiencing internal disagreements on the pace of interest rate cuts, with some officials advocating for gradual cuts while others suggest a more aggressive approach[7] - The U.S. government is facing a budget impasse, which could lead to a government shutdown, affecting federal operations and potentially dragging down Q4 economic performance[8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macrofinance**: Index futures are expected to be bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; treasury bonds should be kept under observation [1][5]. - **Black Building Materials**: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range - bound trading; glass is advised to be observed [1]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Copper is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs; aluminum is advised to lay out long positions on dips after pullbacks; nickel is suggested to be observed or shorted on highs; tin, gold, and silver are recommended for range - bound trading [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to oscillate; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range oscillations; the 01 contract of soda ash should be traded with a short - selling mindset [1]. - **Cotton Textile Industry Chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn, and PTA are expected to oscillate; apples and jujubes are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. - **Agriculture and Animal Husbandry**: Live pigs and eggs are recommended to be shorted on highs; corn is expected to have wide - range oscillations; soybean meal is expected to have range - bound oscillations; oils are expected to be slightly bullish [1]. Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products. It takes into account factors such as macroeconomic data, industry events, supply - demand relationships, and international policies. For example, in the macro - financial sector, important meetings and potential Fed rate cuts support the stock market, while in the bond market, the outcome of Sino - US negotiations is crucial. In the black building materials sector, supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal, rebar, etc. Each sector's analysis is based on a combination of multiple factors to guide investment decisions [5][7][8]. Summaries by Categories Macrofinance - **Index Futures**: Last week, A - share broad - based indices all had negative weekly returns, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices having the largest declines. This week, the release of macro - economic data and important events will affect the market. With the approaching of important meetings and the potential Fed rate cuts, the market is expected to be supported. It is recommended to buy on dips in the medium to long term [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Interest - rate bond yields declined across all tenors and varieties, and credit - bond yields also decreased. Overseas credit risks led to a decline in risk appetite, but the compound negative factors in the bond market have not been fundamentally resolved. It is advisable to take partial profits during risk - event shocks. The Sino - US negotiations at the end of the month will be the key to determining market risk appetite [5]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal and Coke**: During the National Day, supply was temporarily halted and is expected to gradually recover after the holiday. The supply recovery is relatively slow, and coking coal has long - position value. After the holiday, the first round of coke price increases started, supported by steel mills' demand [7][8]. - **Rebar**: Last Friday, rebar futures prices oscillated. The fundamental situation shows that the price is undervalued, and with the improvement of demand and the decline of production, the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long around 3000 for the RB2601 contract [8]. - **Glass**: After the National Day, environmental protection and macro - policy expectations cooled down, and the market returned to the fundamental logic. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and the inventory is rising. It is recommended to observe and wait for a reversal to consider going long [9][10]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price fluctuated greatly due to trade - related news. Although the price increase suppresses demand, the demand in the fourth quarter has room for improvement. The fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously on dips without chasing highs [11]. - **Aluminum**: The price of bauxite in Guinea decreased, and the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum changed. The demand in the peak season is weak, but the inventory of aluminum ingots is decreasing well. It is recommended to lay out long positions on dips [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is firm, but the supply may become looser. Refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside. It is recommended to observe or short on highs [18]. - **Tin**: The domestic refined tin production decreased in September, and the supply is expected to be more relaxed in the fourth quarter. The downstream consumption is weak, and it is recommended for range - bound trading [18]. - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the delay of the US PPI data and the risk of government shutdown, the safe - haven sentiment increased. With the expectation of rate cuts and concerns about the US economy, the prices of silver and gold are expected to be supported. It is recommended to trade cautiously and build positions after sufficient pullbacks [19][20]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export sustainability is questionable. It is expected to oscillate, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed in the range of 4600 - 4800 [21][22]. - **Caustic Soda**: There are new maintenance plans in the short - term supply, and the demand is increasing. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract is temporarily observed for the pressure at 2450 [23][24]. - **Styrene**: The cost is under pressure, the inventory is high, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate, and the range of 6400 - 6700 is to be observed [24][25]. - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement pressures the raw material price, but the reduction of rubber arrivals supports the price. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the support at 14500 is to be observed [26][27]. - **Urea**: The supply is increasing, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies should be focused on [28]. - **Methanol**: The supply is recovering, the demand from the methanol - to - olefins industry is increasing, and the inventory is at a high level. It is expected to oscillate [30]. - **Polyolefins**: The cost is affected by macro factors, the supply has an increasing expectation, and the demand is limited. It is expected to oscillate weakly, and the L2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6800, and the PP2601 contract should pay attention to the support at 6500 [30][31]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot trading is light, the downstream demand is weak, and the supply is in excess. The 01 contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: The global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the recent increase in seed cotton prices has led to a situation of grabbing cotton. However, due to the uncertainty between China and the US, the outlook is bearish [35]. - **PTA**: The international oil price is affected by geopolitical factors, the PTA spot price is low, and the supply - demand situation leads to a slowdown in inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range of 4350 - 4600 [34][35]. - **Apples**: The price of late - maturing Fuji apples shows a polarization, and good - quality apples are in high demand. The expected output this year is stable, but the quality has declined, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [36][37]. - **Jujubes**: The new - season jujubes in Xinjiang are about to be harvested, and the ordering progress in different regions varies. The market is in a state of waiting and seeing, and the price is expected to be slightly bullish [37]. Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - **Live Pigs**: The supply in October is increasing, the weight of pigs is relatively high, and the entry of secondary fattening has weakened recently. In the medium to long term, the supply will remain high before the first half of next year. It is recommended to adjust short positions according to different contracts [39][40][41]. - **Eggs**: The current egg price is supported by improved storage conditions and increased procurement, but the post - holiday demand is weak. In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate is slowing down, but the capacity clearance still takes time. It is recommended to take partial profits on short positions and wait for spot guidance [42][43][44]. - **Corn**: Currently, it is the transition period between old and new crops. The short - term supply is sufficient, and the price is under seasonal pressure. In the medium to long term, the cost has support, and the demand is moderately weak. The 11 - contract should be traded with a short - selling mindset, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [44][45]. - **Soybean Meal**: The US soybean is under pressure from harvest and slow exports, and the domestic soybean meal is affected by import expectations. It is expected to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the support at 2900 for the M2601 contract [45][46]. - **Oils**: In the short term, the callback of oils is limited. The 01 contracts of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil should pay attention to the support levels of 8150 - 8200, 9200 - 9300, and 9800 - 9900 respectively. It is recommended to go long after the callback [47][53].