周四，前美国财政部长耶伦警告称，尽管近期美国通胀呈现放缓趋势，特朗普计划实施的新一轮关税措 施，预计将导致物价上涨，并使美国家庭的平均收入下降。 耶伦表示："我预计，今年同比通胀率将至少上升至3%，甚至略高，主要是由于关税影响。" 这位曾在奥巴马和拜登政府担任重要职务的经济学家指出，尽管特朗普关税计划的细节尚未完全明 确，"目前仍有大量不确定性"，她强调："我几乎可以肯定地说，我们将会看到这些关税推高商品价 格。" 耶伦进一步指出，关税带来的价格上涨将侵蚀消费者购买力，进而压低家庭实际收入。"我看到的最乐 观的估计是，每个美国家庭的收入将因此减少约1000美元。"她补充说，若关税政策扩展或影响更广 泛，"实际损失可能远高于这一数值"。 在周四白宫的活动中，特朗普更是直言不讳地称鲍威尔为"蠢货"，加剧了政界与金融圈之间的紧张气 氛。 耶伦呼吁美联储保持警觉，关注由关税引发的"二轮效应"，包括工资上涨、通胀预期上行等可能加剧整 体通胀的风险。她表示，美联储目前尚无法准确评估关税如何影响劳动力市场支出或整体通胀水平，因 此她预计"美联储将继续保持观望姿态"。 换句话说，尽管政治上对于利率政策存在强烈施压，美联储短期 ...

第一财经研究院发布的最新一期"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50.50，回归50荣枯线以上。经济 学家们认为，中美贸易谈判出现积极信号，短期内国内经济景气度回暖。接下来应进一步提振信心、扩 大内需、深化开放、强化创新，将外部的压力转化为转型升级的动力。以政策工具箱的灵活性来对冲不 确定性，以产业链供应链的韧性来抵御外部的冲击。 工业生产景气度保持平稳 经济学家们认为，接下来应进一步提振信心、扩大内需、深化开放、强化创新，将外部的压力转化为转 型升级的动力。 尽管面临外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，但随着稳经济、稳就业政策措施加快落地 见效，中国主要经济指标有望保持平稳运行。 国家统计局将于6月16日发布5月份宏观经济数据。机构分析，工业、消费、投资等多项经济指标亮点频 现，国民经济应变克难稳定运行，发展质量持续提升。 中信证券分析，2024年同期基数走高，或对5月社会消费品零售总额同比增速构成一定拖累。分商品 看，在"国补"和"618"大促的带动下，家电、通讯器材类商品消费或延续较好表现。预计5月社零同比或 增长4.4%左右。 民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，5月份，节日需求释放带动相关服务业表 ...

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 decreased by 17.5% to HKD 89.656 billion, influenced by external macroeconomic factors and high gold prices affecting consumer sentiment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's operating profit showed resilience, increasing by 9.8% to HKD 14.746 billion despite the decline in revenue [1] - Operating profit margin expanded by 400 basis points to 16.4% [1] - The return on equity reached 21.9%, improving from the historical average of 18.4% over the past five years [1]

Trade Performance - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade value reached 17.94 trillion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%[3] - Exports amounted to 10.67 trillion RMB, growing by 7.2%, while imports were 7.27 trillion RMB, declining by 3.8%[3] - In May 2025, the total trade value was 3.81 trillion RMB, with exports at 2.28 trillion RMB (up 6.3%) and imports at 1.53 trillion RMB (down 2.1%) [3] U.S.-China Trade Relations - In May 2025, trade between China and the U.S. was valued at 39.63 billion USD, with a cumulative total of 239.71 billion USD from January to May, reflecting an overall decline of 9.1% year-on-year[5] - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 9.7%, while imports fell by 7.4% during the same period[5] - The decline in trade is attributed to trade frictions, but there are expectations for a recovery in June following a consensus on tariffs reached in mid-May[5] Sector Contributions - Private enterprises showed strong performance with a 7% increase in imports and exports, accounting for 57.1% of total trade, while foreign-invested enterprises grew by 2.3%[5] - State-owned enterprises experienced a 12.7% decline in trade, with imports dropping significantly by 19.1%[5] Product Structure - Mechanical and electrical products, which accounted for 60% of exports, saw a growth of 9.3%, with integrated circuits increasing by 18.9%[5] - Labor-intensive products declined by 1.5%, although textiles still grew by 3.7%[5] Import Trends - Agricultural imports decreased significantly, with a 12.5% drop in value, while demand for high-tech products remained strong, particularly in natural and synthetic rubber, which saw a 50.4% increase in import value[5] - Integrated circuits also showed growth in both volume and value, indicating a robust demand for high-tech imports[5] Future Outlook - Following the Geneva meeting, expectations for improved U.S.-China trade relations are anticipated, with a potential reduction in tariff impacts[6] - However, the cancellation of the tax exemption for small packages from China by the U.S. may delay a full trade recovery[6] Risk Factors - The external trade environment is complex and variable, necessitating close monitoring of economic policies, exchange rate fluctuations, and market competition to mitigate uncertainties[6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic factors have limited driving force for stock indices, with weak fundamentals and a policy vacuum. Overseas factors dominate short - term fluctuations, and the possibility of an upward breakthrough in stock indices is low without significant positive news. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest rate risks from the central bank suppress the upward space [1]. - The market is affected by macro - economic conditions, Sino - US trade negotiations, and supply - demand relationships in various industries. Different commodities show different trends such as oscillation, upward or downward movement [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - financial - Stock indices: Limited upward breakthrough possibility without positive news, be cautious about Sino - US tariff signals, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term interest rate risks suppress the upward space, with short - term oscillation and a solid long - term upward logic [1]. Metals - Copper: Sino - US talks boost risk appetite, but weak downstream demand limits the upward space [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventory supports the price, but weakening downstream demand and fluctuating macro - sentiment may lead to oscillation [1]. - Alumina: Spot price is stable, futures price is weak, and increasing production in the smelting end pressures the futures price [1]. - Zinc: Monday's inventory increase pressures the price, and the subsequent downward space depends on the de - stocking sustainability on Thursday [1]. - Nickel: Short - term oscillation following the macro - situation, with long - term pressure from first - grade nickel surplus [1]. - Stainless steel: Short - term weak oscillation, with long - term supply pressure [1]. - Tin: Supply shortage in the short term leads to high - level oscillation [1]. - Manganese silicon: Short - term oscillation with heavy warehouse receipt pressure and supply - demand imbalance [1]. - Silicon iron: Oscillation due to weak supply and demand [1]. Building Materials and Energy - Glass: Supply - demand imbalance leads to a weakening price trend [1]. - Soda ash: Supply surplus concerns and weak terminal demand put pressure on the price [1]. - Coking coal: Can continue to short - sell, with the upper limit of the price anchored at the warehouse receipt cost of 780 - 800 [1]. - Coke: Falls in line with coking coal as the cost of coal for furnace use decreases [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: May have a gap - opening market if there are unexpected data in the MPOB report [1]. - Rapeseed oil: Weak fundamentals and the game with other oils, be vigilant against a rebound [1]. - Cotton: Domestic cotton prices are expected to be weakly oscillating, affected by trade negotiations, weather, and consumption seasons [1]. - Sugar: Brazilian sugar production is expected to change, and the price may be affected by the sugar - alcohol ratio and crude oil prices [1]. - Corn: Tight supply - demand balance expected, with short - term oscillation [1]. - Soybean meal: Short - term oscillation is strong, but the increase of MO9 is expected to be limited [1]. Chemicals - PTA: The tight situation is alleviating, and short - fiber costs are closely related [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Continues to decline due to profit expansion and inventory reduction [1]. - Styrene: Bullish due to increased device load and concentrated inventory [1]. - PP: Oscillation is strong due to maintenance and rigid demand [1]. - PVC: Oscillation is weak due to increased supply pressure and seasonal factors [1]. - LPG: Supply increase, high port inventory, and weak demand suppress the price, and there are short - selling opportunities [1]. Others - Shipping: For container shipping on the European line, consider short - selling and long - buying strategies according to different contract periods [1]. - Fuel oil: Oscillation, affected by geopolitical situations and consumption seasons [1]. - Asphalt: Oscillation, with cost drag and slow demand recovery [1]. - Natural rubber: Oscillation, with factors such as narrowing price difference, falling raw material prices, and reduced inventory [1]. - BR rubber: Expected to decline due to weak cost support and high inventory [1].

Group 1: Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Date: June 12, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: Supported by macro factors, Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated strongly. The latest cotton price index for Grade 328 was 14,784 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market was slightly better but still dull, and the cotton fabric market was light. After the end of the Eid al-Adha festival in Xinjiang, the local weaving mills resumed work, but the overall operating rate was low [7] - Macro situation: China and the US have reached a framework agreement in principle, with limited positive impact. Overseas, the shipment progress of old cotton was good, and the good and excellent rate was weaker than the same period last year, supporting the external market. Domestically, the market expected the new cotton output to increase steadily. The downstream yarn and fabric sectors continued to weaken, with weak market demand and increasing inventory [8] - Operation suggestion: In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will fluctuate and adjust narrowly. Pay attention to the performance of the upper pressure level [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending June 8, the US cotton planting progress was 76%, the budding rate was 12%, and the good and excellent rate was 49%, all weaker than the same period last year [9] - As of June 7, 2025, the cotton harvest progress in Brazil was 1.4%, slower than the same period last year [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][18][19]

晨 星 月 报 01 市场洞察 宏观经济延续上月承压走势，股债表现分化 5月，国内宏观经济走势有所改善，但依旧承压。反映国内经济先行指标的制造业PMI录得 49.5%，在4月份49.0%的基础上回升0.5%，连续两个月位于收缩区间。制造业景气水平的上升 主要是受到生产指数、新订单指数、原料库存指数和从业人员指数环比上行所带来的影响。4 月份CPI同比下降0.1%，PPI同比下降2.7%。相比于3月份CPI和PPI同比分别下降0.1%和下降 2.5%而言，CPI同比涨幅持平主要是受到食品价格降幅收窄和服务价格上涨的影响；生产资料 价格和生活资料价格的降幅扩大，带动PPI同比降幅上升。 5月，中美关税冲突有所缓和，叠加央行降准降息政策的落地推动A股在上旬回暖。随着市场 对关税利好的消化，下旬，受到特朗普贸易政策不确定性的延续及4月经济数据边际偏弱的影 响，股市出现小幅回落。主要股指在5月迎来普涨，其中上证指数和深证成指分别上涨2.09% 和1.42%。代表大盘股、中盘股和小盘股的沪深300指数、中证500指数和中证1000指数分别上 涨1.85%、0.70%和1.28%。31个申万行业多数收涨，其中25个行业上涨 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - In May, the domestic macroeconomic performance showed some improvement but remained under pressure, with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.5%, up 0.5% from April's 49.0%, indicating continued contraction [2] - The CPI in April decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, while the PPI fell by 2.7%, with the decline in production material prices contributing to the increased PPI drop [2] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a rebound in early May due to easing US-China tariff conflicts and the implementation of central bank policies, with major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 2.09% and 1.42% respectively [3] - Among 31 Shenwan industry sectors, 25 sectors saw gains, with notable increases in the environmental protection, pharmaceutical, defense, banking, and textile sectors, all exceeding 6% [3] Group 3: Bond Market Dynamics - Bond yields initially declined following the central bank's rate cuts but later rebounded due to easing signals from US-China trade tensions, with the 1-year government bond yield falling by 5 basis points to 1.46% [4][5] - The overall performance of credit bonds was better than that of interest rate bonds, with the Zhongzheng credit bond index showing a return of 0.43% [5] Group 4: Global Economic Indicators - The US Markit Composite PMI rose to 53.0% in May, indicating expansion, while the Eurozone manufacturing PMI remained in contraction at 49.4% [6] - Major global stock indices saw collective gains in May, with the S&P 500 rising by 6.15% and Brent crude oil prices increasing by 2.57% due to geopolitical tensions [6] Group 5: Fund Performance Analysis - The Morningstar China Open-End Fund Index recorded a 0.88% increase in May, with equity funds performing particularly well, driven by the strong performance of A-shares [12] - Value-style equity funds outperformed growth and balanced funds, with large-cap value funds achieving an average return of 2.76% [16] Group 6: Sector-Specific Fund Performance - Industry-specific funds, particularly in pharmaceuticals and financial real estate, showed strong performance, with average returns of 6.44% and 2.67% respectively [16][23] - Conversely, technology and communication funds underperformed, with average returns of -2.46% and -2.92% [16][23] Group 7: QDII Fund Performance - QDII funds benefited from strong performances in US and emerging markets, with global emerging market mixed funds achieving an average return of 12.89% in May [27] - However, global bond funds faced challenges, recording an average return of -0.66% due to declines in US bonds [19][27]

Core Viewpoint - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade value increased by 2.5% year-on-year, reaching 17.94 trillion yuan, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports declining by 3.8% [7][9]. Group 1: Trade Performance - Total goods trade value in May 2025 was 3.81 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.7% year-on-year, with exports at 2.28 trillion yuan (up 6.3%) and imports at 1.53 trillion yuan (down 2.1%) [8]. - General trade and processing trade saw growth, with general trade imports and exports totaling 11.51 trillion yuan (up 0.8%), accounting for 64.2% of total foreign trade [10]. - Processing trade reached 3.21 trillion yuan (up 6.2%), representing 17.9% of total trade [10]. Group 2: Trade Partners - ASEAN became China's largest trading partner, with trade totaling 3.02 trillion yuan (up 9.1%), accounting for 16.8% of total foreign trade [11]. - Trade with the EU reached 2.3 trillion yuan (up 2.9%), while trade with the US decreased by 8.1% to 1.72 trillion yuan [11]. Group 3: Enterprise Types - Private enterprises accounted for 57.1% of total foreign trade, with imports and exports totaling 10.25 trillion yuan (up 7%) [13]. - Foreign-invested enterprises had a trade value of 5.21 trillion yuan (up 2.3%), while state-owned enterprises saw a decline of 12.7% to 2.44 trillion yuan [13]. Group 4: Export Composition - Mechanical and electrical products constituted 60% of total exports, with significant growth in integrated circuits (up 18.9%) and automobiles (up 6.6%) [14]. - Labor-intensive products saw a decline in exports, while agricultural product exports increased by 4.7% [14]. Group 5: Import Trends - Major bulk commodity prices fell, with iron ore imports down 5.2% and crude oil imports up slightly by 0.3% [15]. - The import value of mechanical and electrical products grew by 6% [15].

【宏观不确定因素多，镍与不锈钢市场受影响】宏观层面，不确定因素较多，需关注关税等政策进展。 海外方面，美国5月非农就业略超预期但大幅下修前值，市场对美衰退担忧缓解，不过美联储降息预期 后移。国内5月制造业PMI低于荣枯线，通胀承压，CPI和PPI延续负增长，数据表现偏弱。6月9日起， 中美第二轮经贸磋商在伦敦举行，市场风险偏好或随之改变。 印尼镍矿升水坚挺，镍铁价格近期持 稳。6月上半段，印尼镍矿HMA持稳微跌，内贸价格走强，部分矿区降水增加，内贸火法矿升水26 - 30 美元/湿吨。部分印尼镍铁厂成本倒挂减产，但幅度不大，5月印尼镍生铁产量14.14万金属吨，环比降 1.32%，国内镍铁价格持稳于950 - 970元/镍。 不锈钢减产量级有限，淡季成交疲弱。近期行情弱势，部 分钢厂减少6月生产计划，但减幅有限。钢联预估6月国内粗钢排产336.23万吨，环比降2.91%，同比增 2.24%。截至6月5日，300系社会库存64.5万吨，周环比增0.86%。消费淡季，下游刚需补库，端午后库 存增加，关税不确定，终端订单弱。6月10日，青山放开限价，冷热轧平板降100元/吨，现货成交弱。 国内纯镍产量小幅缩减，全球 ...