Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in US-China trade relations, particularly focusing on the significant progress made during the Geneva trade talks, where both sides agreed to reduce tariffs substantially, indicating a potential easing of trade tensions [2][4]. Group 1: Signals Released - The urgency from the US side is heightened due to upcoming holidays that require timely product shipments, which could impact the domestic market if unresolved [4]. - The trade friction, if not addressed, could lead to inflation and negatively affect the US stock and bond markets, which is undesirable for the Trump administration [4][5]. - Both countries recognize the need for cooperation, with the US requiring a stable relationship with China for economic reasons, while China aims to avoid deterioration in relations for mutual benefits [5][6]. Group 2: Disadvantages of "Reciprocal Tariff" Policy - Trump's tariff policy is not new but reflects his long-standing focus on tariffs and immigration issues, aiming to boost US revenue and reduce trade deficits [8]. - The policy risks exacerbating inflation and weakening the global competitiveness of US companies, while also alienating major trade partners [8][9]. - The long-term impact on the US's international image and economic cooperation could be detrimental, as the country faces growing skepticism regarding its economic direction and policy stability [9]. Group 3: US in a "Trial and Error" Phase - The fundamental impact of the tariff policy is more about obstructing China's development rather than just trade relations, driven by political motives rather than economic ones [11]. - The structural contradictions in US-China relations remain unchanged, with the US facing systemic issues such as intense political rivalry, wealth disparity, racial tensions, and cultural divides [12]. - The current trend of "de-globalization" suggests that economic friction between the US and China will persist, although there are signs of positive developments from the recent talks [13][14]. - The relationship is expected to return to rationality over time, but this transformation may take about ten years, as the US navigates through its "trial and error" phase [15].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [4] Core Viewpoints - The India-Pakistan conflict has highlighted the performance of domestic weapons, aiding the expansion of the global military trade market. Pakistan's military success in this conflict, particularly with Chinese exports like the J-10C fighter jet, has increased the recognition of Chinese military equipment in international markets [1][6]. - Geopolitical tensions are driving the military trade market expansion. The increasing security demands of various countries, coupled with China's competitive military products, are expected to fill the gaps left by declining military exports from other nations. This trend positions the military trade market as a new growth driver for China's military industry [2][7]. - The capital market has reacted positively, with the defense and military sector index rising by 4.64% from May 7 to May 12, 2025, indicating heightened investor interest and optimism in the military sector due to the recent conflict [2][8]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Performance of Domestic Weapons - The India-Pakistan conflict in May 2025 saw Pakistan claim the downing of multiple Indian aircraft, including the French-made Rafale. This conflict provided a platform for Chinese military exports, particularly the J-10C fighter jet, which played a significant role in Pakistan's military achievements [1][5][6]. Section 2: Geopolitical Factors Driving Market Expansion - The report emphasizes that the trend of de-globalization and increased geopolitical uncertainty is enhancing the global military trade logic. China's military products, known for their cost-effectiveness and technological advancement, are expected to meet the rising demand in the military trade market as other countries face export declines [2][7]. Section 3: Key Investment Targets - The report identifies three key companies for investment: 1. **AVIC Chengfei**: Focuses on aviation equipment, including fighter jets like the J-10 and J-20, which have gained international recognition [10]. 2. **AVIC Shenyang**: Engaged in manufacturing military aircraft, with products like the J-11 and J-16, benefiting from the growing international military trade market [11]. 3. **Guokai Military Industry**: Specializes in missile and ammunition production, with products that have proven effective in recent conflicts, indicating strong future growth potential [12].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the recent tariff negotiations between China and the U.S. appear to be a temporary pause in a larger trade conflict, with both sides maintaining significant tariffs on key goods [1][3]. - The U.S. decision to lower tariffs is seen as a strategic retreat under inflationary pressure, with potential annual costs of $3,800 for American households if tariffs remain high [3]. - China's significant export reductions, particularly in rare earths, highlight the leverage it holds in the supply chain, suggesting that the U.S. may not be able to rely solely on technology restrictions to pressure China [3][5]. Group 2 - The article emphasizes that China's manufacturing presence is growing globally, with a market share of over 60% in Africa for mobile phones and a significant presence in U.S. supermarkets [5]. - The narrative suggests that any attempts at de-globalization will ultimately fail, as evidenced by China's increasing trade with Latin America surpassing that with the U.S. [5]. - The ongoing tariff dispute is framed as a broader geopolitical struggle, with implications for global power dynamics and the diminishing unilateral influence of the U.S. [3][5].

Group 1: Global Trade Developments - The recent trade negotiations indicate a short-term easing of global tariff risks, with the US and UK reaching a trade agreement that retains a 10% tariff on UK goods, which has limited actual impact due to the UK's small trade share with the US [2] - The US-China high-level economic talks held in Geneva resulted in significant progress, despite a decrease in China's exports to the US since 2018, with approximately $500 billion in goods still being exported annually [2][4] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Trends - The US deficit rate has risen significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic, with projections indicating it will exceed 7%, and the federal budget deficit is expected to reach $2.7 trillion by 2035 [4] - The long-term expectation of rising deficit rates in major economies is seen as a bullish factor for gold prices, as evidenced by the rapid increase in gold and Bitcoin prices amid US monetary expansion [4][7] Group 3: Gold Demand and Market Dynamics - Global gold demand remains strong, with the World Gold Council reporting the highest first-quarter demand since 2016, driven by central bank purchases and a significant increase in gold ETF inflows [5] - China's retail investment in gold reached its second-highest quarterly level, contributing to the overall strong demand for gold, while geopolitical uncertainties continue to influence central banks' purchasing strategies [5][6]

2025 年 5 月 12 日 总量研究 以斗争求合作，中方打到美方筹码底线 ——《大国博弈》系列第八十五篇 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：赵格格 执业证书编号：S0930521010001 0755-23946159 zhaogege@ebscn.com 相关研报 中美会晤前哨观察：特朗普的交易底线—— 《大国博弈》系列第八十四篇（2025-05- 10） 中美关税第二轮，双方在如何出牌？—— 《大国博弈》系列第七十九篇（2025-03- 05） 从减税视角出发，特朗普后续关税力度几 何？——《大国博弈》系列第七十八篇 （2025-02-20） 如何看待美中加墨本轮关税交锋？——《大 国博弈》系列第七十七篇（2025-02-06） 野心与现实：特朗普首日新政评述——《大 国博弈》系列第七十六篇（2025-01-21） 要点 核心观点： 在中国的示范下，越来越多的国家意识到，与美谈判"以斗争求合作则合作存，以 妥协求合作则合作亡"，"美 X 谈判"进展缓慢，对美国经济、市场和特朗普选盘 逐步造成实质 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 贵金属 姓名：何彬 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F03090813 投资咨询证号：Z0019840 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：hebin@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 贵金属 | 周报 · 2025 年 5 月 12 日 贵金属周报 专业研究·创造价值 中美在瑞达成重要共识，金价承压 核心观点 上周金价冲高回落，纽约金在3300美元有较强的技术支撑，对应 沪金 780 元关口。消息面上，5 月 8 日凌晨美联储议息会议结束，整 体表现鹰派。美元指数触底回升，金价冲高回落。5 月 10 日印巴达成 停火协议。5 月 12 日人民日报报道，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副 总理何立峰出席新闻发布会表示，中美达成重要共识，会谈取得实质 性进展。中美贸易趋于缓和，市场风险偏好回升，这一定程度上将使 金价承压 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the irreversible logic behind the restructuring of the global order and the new investment paradigm, driven by unconventional policies from the Trump administration to address global supply and demand imbalances [3][4][14]. Group 1: Globalization and G2 Imbalances - The globalization process has intensified the trade, production, and debt imbalances between the G2 nations, with the U.S. positioned as the largest consumer and China as the largest producer [9][13]. - Since China's accession to the WTO in 2001, the U.S. has increasingly relied on debt expansion to create demand, leading to continuous trade deficits and external debt accumulation, while China has maintained a trade surplus through its manufacturing capabilities [9][13]. - As major economies move away from high growth, the importance of "efficiency" is yielding to "distribution," indicating a long-term trend towards increased de-globalization [9][13]. Group 2: Restructuring Global Order - The "Mar-a-Lago Agreement" aims to reshape global trade and monetary order through tariffs and the restructuring of U.S. debt, addressing long-standing trade and fiscal deficits while enhancing U.S. export competitiveness [4][11][23]. - Although the full implementation of the Mar-a-Lago Agreement faces significant challenges, understanding its implications is crucial for anticipating future policy directions from the Trump administration [4][11][23]. Group 3: New Investment Paradigm - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury yields remaining "higher for longer," Chinese bond yields remaining "lower for longer," and an increase in global risk premium [5][12][25]. - The ongoing trend of de-globalization and isolationist policies under Trump will exacerbate uncertainties in global economic growth and inflation, reinforcing the underlying logic of the new investment paradigm [5][12][25]. - The elevation of the global risk premium will significantly affect the correlation between major asset classes and increase the volatility of global assets, fundamentally altering the existing global asset allocation framework [5][12][25][33].

本来这个话题，昨天想聊的，但因为昨天市场又涨了，怕你们说我是马后炮，所以就赶在下跌的日子聊 吧。 年初，我们就强调 地区分散、股债均衡 的思路， 看好风险资产 ，目前跟投的组合，也都赚了点钱。 今天A股 80%左右的个股下跌，算是节后第一次下跌，要说利空的话，掰掰手指头，一共有三个。 其一，昨天下午，印度那边把关了三天的水坝，重新开了 闸，局势有所缓和，今天印度股市小跌1个 点，巴基斯坦股市则小幅反弹，A股 军工 板块的炒作也顺势熄了火，今天领跌全市场； 其二，是半导体两大龙头， 中芯和华虹 先后披露了一季报，这俩是A+H两地上市，所以不用赶在4月 30日前披露，两家的业绩都miss了，特别是对二季度及后续的指引不及预期，且一季报还显示国家 大 基金有减持的迹象 ，两者股价纷纷大跌，把整个芯片板块带坏了，包括两者在恒生科技的权重合计是 10个点左右，也使得今天恒科比恒生指数弱了不少； 其三，是 美/英 达成了贸易协议，除了我们之外，美国的贸易谈判，主要围绕20个左右的国家和地区， 如果英美达成协议，那么后续其他谈判对手会不会跟进，是否会对周末的中美会谈形成压力呢，这也是 一种可能。 当然，算上节前的2天，市场 ...

Core Insights - The global economy is showing signs of recovery in Q1 2025, with a strong manufacturing PMI above 50, and China's foreign trade performance exceeded market expectations despite high tariffs from the US [1][7] - China's total export value in Q1 2025 reached approximately $853.7 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 5.8%, with significant contributions from private enterprises [2][3] Trade Performance - The total import and export value of Chinese enterprises in Q1 2025 was about $1.4 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, with private enterprises accounting for 57% of this total [2][3] - The trade surplus in Q1 2025 surged by 48.6% to $273 billion, with private enterprises contributing 105.9% to this surplus [2][3] Private Enterprises Contribution - Private enterprises accounted for 64.8% of total exports in Q1 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, highlighting their role as the main contributors to foreign trade growth [2][3][4] - The number of private enterprises engaged in import and export activities reached a historical high of 455,000, representing 86.1% of all trading enterprises [1][2] Export Product Structure - In Q1 2025, mechanical and electrical products constituted over 60% of total exports, with integrated circuits and high-tech products showing significant growth [4] - Notably, energy exports saw a substantial decline, with refined oil exports down by 23.5% and coal exports down by 25.9% to 45.3% [4] Import Trends - Total imports in Q1 2025 decreased by 7% to $580.7 billion, with state-owned enterprises experiencing the largest decline at 20.5% [4][5] - Private enterprises showed a slight increase in imports by 1.8%, indicating a shift in the import landscape [4] Industrial and Trade Data Discrepancy - There is a growing disparity between industrial output and foreign trade data, with the ratio of industrial export delivery value to total foreign trade exports declining from 68.5% in 2020 to 59.2% in Q1 2025 [5][6] - The share of exports to the US has also decreased, indicating potential challenges in maintaining trade relationships [5][6]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the restructuring of the global order is an irreversible underlying logic, driven by unconventional methods to address the current global supply and demand imbalance [3][4][14] - It highlights the increasing imbalance in trade, production, and debt between the G2 countries, with the U.S. as the largest consumer and China as the largest producer [9][13] - The article discusses the "Mar-a-Lago Agreement," which aims to reshape global trade and monetary order to alleviate the U.S.'s long-standing current account and fiscal deficits [11][23] Group 2 - The new investment paradigm is framed by three macro trading backgrounds: U.S. Treasury rates being "higher for longer," Chinese bond rates being "lower for longer," and an increase in global risk premium [5][12][32] - The article suggests that the ongoing trend of de-globalization will significantly disrupt the existing global asset allocation framework [9][13][33] - It notes that the U.S. reliance on debt expansion has led to continuous current account deficits and manufacturing hollowing out, while China benefits from a persistent trade surplus [9][13]