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USDA调降棉花年末库存,棉花短期震荡偏强
Xin Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-13 01:13
Report Industry Investment Rating - Sugar: Oscillation [1] - Cotton: Oscillation [1] Report's Core View - Sugar: Affected by the continuous drought from autumn to spring, the emergence and early growth of sugarcane in Guangxi are unfavorable, with the growth and number of plants shorter and fewer than the same period last year. The growth of sugar beets is generally good, but there has been excessive rainfall recently in the Inner Mongolia production area, making it prone to pests and diseases, which require early prevention. Internationally, it is necessary to continue to monitor the sugar production progress in Brazil and the growth of sugar crops in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. - Cotton: Most cotton production areas in China have entered the budding to flowering stage, with the growth progress 4 to 7 days ahead of previous years. According to the climate forecast of the China Meteorological Administration, the temperature in Xinjiang will remain high in July, and the number of high - temperature days will exceed the same period in previous years, posing a high risk of heat damage to cotton. Currently, the total cotton inventory is continuously decreasing, but the downstream market shows obvious off - season characteristics, and textile enterprises are cautious in raw material procurement. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of weather changes and tariff uncertainties [1]. Data Summary Price Data - **External Market Quotes**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the price of US sugar was $16.54, with a 0.00% change; the price of US cotton was $66.84, with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Spot Prices**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the price of sugar in Nanning remained at 5960.0, with a 0.00% change; the price of sugar in Kunming decreased from 5825.0 to 5815.0, a - 0.17% change; the cotton index 328 decreased from 3281 to 3280, a - 0.11% change; the price of cotton in Xinjiang remained at 15050.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. Spread Data - **Sugar Spreads**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 11.90%, SR05 - 09 increased by - 1.36%, and SR09 - 01 decreased by - 6.67% [3]. - **Cotton Spreads**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, CF01 - 05 increased by 40.00%, CF05 - 09 increased by 16.67%, and CF09 - 01 increased by 22.50% [3]. Basis Data - **Sugar Basis**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the basis of sugar 01 decreased by - 17.86%, the basis of sugar 05 decreased by - 13.61%, and the basis of sugar 09 decreased by - 25.85% [3]. - **Cotton Basis**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the basis of cotton 01 decreased by - 6.56%, the basis of cotton 05 decreased by - 4.81%, and the basis of cotton 09 decreased by - 2.63% [3]. Import Price and Profit Data - **Import Price**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA was 78.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. - **Profit Space**: On August 11 - 12, 2025, the sugar import profit was 1515.0, with a 0.00% change [3]. Option and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Options**: For options such as SR601C5600, SR601P5600, CF601C14000, and CF601P14000, the implied volatility and relevant futures contract information are provided [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: From August 11 to 12, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by - 2.12%, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by - 1.04% [3]. Company Information - The report is produced by Cinda Futures Co., Ltd., which is a limited liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million RMB. It has various memberships in multiple futures exchanges [8].
国产商品量环比仍回落 液化石油气反弹动力上升
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-12 07:09
Group 1: Government Actions - The Indian government approved a one-time payment of 300 billion INR (approximately 3.4 billion USD) to state-owned fuel retailers to compensate for losses incurred from selling liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) at subsidized prices to impoverished households [1] Group 2: Market Analysis - Goldman Sachs maintains its natural gas price forecasts for the Dutch TTF at 37 EUR/MWh for 2025 and 30 EUR/MWh for 2026 [2] - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reported a decrease of 12,941 contracts in net long positions for natural gas futures on NYMEX and ICE markets, bringing the total to 243,198 contracts as of the week ending August 5 [2] Group 3: Industry Insights - Hualian Futures noted a continued decline in domestic LPG production compared to last year, with low inventory levels rebounding and port capacity utilization rates falling to the median of recent years. Refinery capacity utilization remains at a multi-year low, while gas station capacity is neutral. The overall inventory at ports has rebounded to high levels, and U.S. inventories continue to rise. Demand is weak, with gasoline consumption at a four-year low and a slowdown in restaurant consumption, although chemical demand has increased [3] - Zhonghui Futures observed stabilization in costs alongside high basis levels, leading to increased positions. Oil prices have stabilized, and downstream chemical demand remains decent with PDH operating rates around 70%. Supply and inventory levels are neutral to bearish, with a slight increase in domestic production and rising port inventories. The strategy suggested is to maintain light positions and consider long positions within the range of 3750-3850 [4]
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250812
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:40
Group 1: Methanol - The methanol price followed coal price fluctuations this week, with little change in its own fundamentals, still in the process of inventory accumulation, high imports, and normal valuation, and is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] - From August 5th to 11th, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801, the江苏 spot price decreased by 9 to 2374, the华南 spot price decreased by 3 to 2375, and the西北 discounted price increased by 13 to 2703 [2] Group 2: Polyethylene - For polyethylene, the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year, with upstream accumulation and coal - chemical de - stocking. Downstream raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. The overall inventory is neutral, with a 09 basis of about - 150 in North China and - 100 in East China. Import profit is around - 100, with no further increase for now. In August, maintenance decreased month - on - month, and domestic linear production increased month - on - month [6] - From August 5th to 11th, Northeast Asia ethylene remained at 820, the Northeast LL price increased by 10 to 7200, the East LL price increased by 10 to 7310, and the East LD price increased by 15 to 9490. The two - oil inventory remained at 75, and the warehouse receipt increased by 400 to 6282 [6] Group 3: Polypropylene - For polypropylene, upstream inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is accumulating, while mid - stream inventory is decreasing. The basis is - 60, non - standard price difference is neutral, import profit is around - 800, and export is good. The PDH profit is around - 200, propylene is fluctuating, and powder production start - up is stable. The supply in June is expected to increase slightly month - on - month, and downstream orders are average [6] - From August 5th to 11th, Shandong propylene increased by 220 to 6500, Northeast Asia propylene remained at 740, the East PP price increased by 10 to 7030, and the North PP price decreased by 22 to 7018. The two - oil inventory remained at 75, and the warehouse receipt remained at 12540 [6] Group 4: Polyvinyl Chloride - The PVC basis remains at 09 - 150, and the factory - pick - up basis is - 450. Downstream start - up is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventory de - stocking is slowing down. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 500. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, and the downstream performance is mediocre [6] - From August 5th to 11th, Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2350, Shandong caustic soda remained at 837, the calcium - carbide - method East price remained at 4930, and the ethylene - method East price remained at 5500 [6]
纯碱期货主力合约涨超5%
Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the main contract for soda ash futures has increased by over 5% [1]
棕榈油:产地供需两旺,低多为主,豆油:美豆驱动不足,关注国内后续采购
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:18
Report Title - Palm Oil: Supply and Demand in Producing Areas Are Both Strong, Focus on Buying at Low Levels; Soybean Oil: Lack of Drivers from US Soybeans, Pay Attention to Subsequent Domestic Purchases [2] Report Date - August 12, 2025 [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - For palm oil, the supply and demand in producing areas are both strong, and the strategy is to buy at low levels; for soybean oil, there is a lack of drivers from US soybeans, and attention should be paid to subsequent domestic purchases [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking 3.1.1 Futures Market - Palm oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 2.65%, night - session closing price was up 0.20%, with 567,374 lots traded (an increase of 125,153) and 299,985 lots held (a decrease of 5,729) [3] - Soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.67%, night - session closing price was down 0.38%, with 164,012 lots traded (a decrease of 40,472) and 335,019 lots held (a decrease of 29,250) [3] - Rapeseed oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.15%, night - session closing price was up 0.33%, with 194,113 lots traded (an increase of 713) and 126,040 lots held (a decrease of 14,440) [3] - Malaysian palm oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 3.06%, night - session closing price was down 0.27% [3] - CBOT soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price was up 0.91% [3] 3.1.2 Spot Market - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): The price was 8,980 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [3] - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): The price was 8,650 yuan/ton, with no change [3] - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): The price was 9,570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [3] - Malaysian palm oil FOB offshore price: The price was 1,060 dollars/ton, with no change [3] 3.1.3 Basis and Spread - Palm oil (Guangdong) basis was - 238 yuan/ton; soybean oil (Guangdong) basis was 194 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil (Guangxi) basis was - 18 yuan/ton [3] - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: The previous trading day was 370 yuan/ton, and the day before was 594 yuan/ton [3] - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: It was - 778 yuan/ton, compared with - 592 yuan/ton previously [3] - Palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan/ton; soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 16 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton [3] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - MPOB: Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in July increased 4.02% to 2.113 million tons, production increased 7.09% to 1.812 million tons, exports increased 3.82% to 1.309 million tons, and imports decreased 12.82% to 61,000 tons [4] - AmSpec: Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10 were 453,230 tons, a 23.67% increase from the same period last month [6] - Indonesia: Trade authorities are asking palm oil producers to increase local market sales under the DMO plan, aiming to lower prices, and the DMO level should be maintained at 175,000 tons per month by the end of the year [6] - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 biodiesel mandatory blending policy in 2026, but it may be difficult to start in January, and a series of tests will be carried out [6] - USDA crop growth report: As of the week ending August 10, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, the flowering rate was 91%, and the pod - setting rate was 71% [6] - Abiove: In June 2025, Brazilian factories processed 4.55 million tons of soybeans, produced 3.47 million tons of soybean meal and 930,000 tons of soybean oil, with ending inventories of 23.28 million tons of soybeans, 2.68 million tons of soybean meal, and 480,000 tons of soybean oil [7] - Secex: Brazil exported 2,774,453.27 tons of soybeans in the first week of August, with an average daily export volume 27% higher than that of the whole month of August last year [7] - CCC: Canada exported 651,106 tons of rapeseed, 223,217 tons of rapeseed oil, and 459,023 tons of rapeseed meal in June 2025. As of June, the 2024/25 annual exports were 8.911907 million tons of rapeseed, 3.127944 million tons of rapeseed oil, and 5.369241 million tons of rapeseed meal [7] - APK - Inform: Lowered the forecast of Ukraine's soybean production this year to 5830,000 tons from the previous 6260,000 tons [8] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity was 1; soybean oil trend intensity was 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [9]
短纤:短期震荡市,多PF空PR,瓶片:短期震荡市,多PF空PR瓶片
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:17
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - term volatile market for both short - fiber and bottle - chip, with a strategy of going long on PF and short on PR [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are in a short - term volatile state, and the recommended trading strategy is to go long on PF and short on PR [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking Short - fiber (PF) - Futures prices of short - fiber 2509, 2510, and 2511 increased by 26, 26, and 2 respectively compared to the previous day. PF09 - 10 remained unchanged, while PF10 - 11 increased by 24. PF basis decreased by 11. The short - fiber持仓量 decreased by 2146, and the short - fiber成交量 decreased by 8352. The short - fiber East China spot price increased by 15, and the short - fiber production - sales ratio decreased by 15% to 56% [1] Bottle - chip (PR) - Futures prices of bottle - chip 2509, 2510, and 2511 increased by 34, 36, and 40 respectively compared to the previous day. PR09 - 10 decreased by 2, and PR10 - 11 decreased by 4. PR主力基差 increased by 24. The bottle - chip持仓量 increased by 468, and the bottle - chip成交量 increased by 2445. The bottle - chip East China spot price increased by 60, and the bottle - chip South China spot price increased by 20 [1] 2. Spot News Short - fiber - PF futures fluctuated strongly. Factory quotes were mostly stable, with local discounts in Fujian narrowing. Downstream follow - up willingness was low. Basis quotes of futures - cash and traders weakened slightly. The mainstream price of semi - bright 1.4D was in the range of 6350 - 6700. Factory sales were relatively weak, with an average production - sales ratio of 57% by 3:00 pm [1] Bottle - chip - Upstream polyester raw material futures rose. Polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were partially raised by 10 - 30 yuan. The market trading atmosphere was light, with South China at a premium to East China. Orders from August to October were mostly traded at 5880 - 6000 yuan/ton ex - factory, with a small amount slightly lower at 5850 - 5870 yuan/ton ex - factory [2] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip on the reporting day's daytime session of the main - contract futures price fluctuations was 0, indicating a neutral state [3]
LPG:盘面估值偏低,关注减仓风险,丙烯:供需收紧,价格存一定支撑
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 02:04
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG has a relatively low valuation on the futures market, and investors should pay attention to the risk of position reduction [1]. - The supply - demand relationship of propylene is tightening, and there is certain support for its price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: On August 12, 2025, PG2509 closed at 3,799 with a daily increase of 0.66% and a night - session close of 3,788 with a decline of 0.29%; PG2510 closed at 4,273 with a daily increase of 0.49% and a night - session close of 4,268 with a decline of 0.12%; PL2601 closed at 6,491 with a daily increase of 0.62% and a night - session close of 6,498 with an increase of 0.11%; PL2602 closed at 6,541 with a daily increase of 0.60% and a night - session close of 6,559 with an increase of 0.28% [1]. - **LPG Positions and Trading Volumes**: PG2509 had a trading volume of 72,506, a decrease of 26,484 from the previous day, and a position of 105,831, a decrease of 2,800; PG2510 had a trading volume of 26,378, a decrease of 3,884, and a position of 90,819, an increase of 603; PL2601 had a trading volume of 1,288, an increase of 101, and a position of 4,453, a decrease of 294; PL2602 had a trading volume of 39 and a decrease of 10 [1]. - **LPG Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG09 contract was 521 (previous day: 576); the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG09 contract was 601 (previous day: 626); the spread between Shandong propylene and PL01 contract was 49 (previous day: - 151); the spread between East China propylene and PL01 contract was - 91 (previous day: - 126); the spread between South China propylene and PL01 contract was - 166 (previous day: - 126) [1]. - **LPG Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.8% (last week: 72.6%); the MTBE operating rate was 66.6% (last week: 67.8%); the alkylation operating rate was 50.0% (last week: 48.8%) [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [7]. 3.3 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On August 8, 2025, the September Saudi CP expectation for propane was 522 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 492 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton. The October Saudi CP expectation for propane was 537 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton; for butane, it was 507 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton [8]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start times dating back to 2023 and some end times still undetermined [9]. - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many factories, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Plant, Zhenghe Petrochemical, etc., have device maintenance plans, with different start and end times and varying loss volumes [10].
化工日报-20250811
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 15:02
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Polypropylene: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★★ [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ☆☆☆ [1] - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - Olefins - Polyolefins: The futures of olefins rose slightly, with some PDH plants restarting and a major Shandong plant planning maintenance, supporting supply. Propylene producers were eager to raise prices. Polyolefins futures remained in a low - level range. PE had limited supply changes and moderate demand growth, with limited upward momentum. PP supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2]. - Pure Benzene - Styrene: Oil prices weakened, and pure benzene futures fluctuated. The spot price in East China rose slightly, and the far - month price was weak. Downstream备货 willingness improved, and port inventory decreased slightly. Styrene futures were weak, with weak cost support and ongoing supply - demand contradictions [3]. - Polyester: Affected by the weekend's strong filament sales, PX and PTA prices rebounded. PTA supply was still weak, and PX was expected to improve in the third quarter. Ethylene glycol prices rebounded, with increasing production but also expectations of reduced imports and rising demand. Short fiber had stable supply - demand, and bottle chip had low processing margins and long - term over - capacity pressure [5]. - Coal Chemicals: Methanol prices fluctuated narrowly, with expected increases in imports and different inventory trends in coastal and inland areas. Urea prices followed the market sentiment down, with weak agricultural demand and limited improvement from compound fertilizers. PVC was expected to be weak due to high production and low demand. Caustic soda was strong in the short - term but faced long - term supply pressure [6]. - Soda Ash - Glass: Soda ash prices were under pressure, with continued inventory accumulation and high supply. Glass prices were expected to be supported by cost, with improved processing orders but still weak compared to the same period last year [7]. Summary by Sections Olefins - Polyolefins - Futures of olefins rose slightly, with some PDH plants restarting and a major Shandong plant planning maintenance, supporting supply. Propylene producers were eager to raise prices [2]. - Polyolefins futures remained in a low - level range. PE had limited supply changes and moderate demand growth, with limited upward momentum. PP supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Oil prices weakened, and pure benzene futures fluctuated. The spot price in East China rose slightly, and the far - month price was weak. Downstream备货 willingness improved, and port inventory decreased slightly [3] - Styrene futures were weak, with weak cost support and ongoing supply - demand contradictions [3] Polyester - Affected by the weekend's strong filament sales, PX and PTA prices rebounded. PTA supply was still weak, and PX was expected to improve in the third quarter [5] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded, with increasing production but also expectations of reduced imports and rising demand. Short fiber had stable supply - demand, and bottle chip had low processing margins and long - term over - capacity pressure [5] Coal Chemicals - Methanol prices fluctuated narrowly, with expected increases in imports and different inventory trends in coastal and inland areas [6] - Urea prices followed the market sentiment down, with weak agricultural demand and limited improvement from compound fertilizers [6] - PVC was expected to be weak due to high production and low demand. Caustic soda was strong in the short - term but faced long - term supply pressure [6] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash prices were under pressure, with continued inventory accumulation and high supply [7] - Glass prices were expected to be supported by cost, with improved processing orders but still weak compared to the same period last year [7]
铅:库存减少,支撑价格,沪铅连三进口盈亏
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 02:07
2025 年 08 月 11 日 铅:库存减少,支撑价格 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16845 | -0.18% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 2003.5 | -0.17% | | (元/吨) | | | 盘(美元/吨) | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 31008 | -1423 | 伦铅成交量(手) | 5355 | -456 | | (手) | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 59123 | -2896 | 伦铅持仓量(手) | 151197 | 868 | | (手) | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -35 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -31.29 | 2.23 | | (元/吨) | | | 贴水(美元/吨) | | | | PB00-PB01(元/吨) | -55 | -5 | 进口升贴水( ...
LPG:短期弱势震荡,丙烯:供需收紧,价格存一定支撑
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-11 02:03
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG is expected to experience short - term weak and volatile trends, while propylene's supply - demand situation is tightening, and its price has certain support [1]. - The trend strength of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is 1, indicating a neutral outlook for LPG and a slightly positive outlook for propylene [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: - PG2509 closed at 3,774 yesterday with a daily decline of 1.28% and a night - session close of 3,775 with a 0.03% increase. - PG2510 closed at 4,252 yesterday with a 0.91% decline and a night - session close of 4,257 with a 0.12% increase. - PL2601 closed at 6,451 yesterday with a 0.45% decline and a night - session close of 6,463 with a 0.19% increase. - PL2602 closed at 6,502 yesterday with a 0.35% decline and a night - session close of 6,510 with a 0.12% increase [1]. - **Position and Trading Volume**: - For PG2509, yesterday's trading volume was 98,990, an increase of 23,479 from the previous day, and the position was 108,631, an increase of 2,869. - For PG2510, yesterday's trading volume was 30,262, an increase of 2,357 from the previous day, and the position was 90,216, an increase of 2,753. - For PL2601, yesterday's trading volume was 1,187, an increase of 69 from the previous day, and the position was 4,747, an increase of 213. - For PL2602, yesterday's trading volume was 49, an increase of 37 from the previous day, and the position was 924, a decrease of 38 [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG09 contract was 566 yesterday, up from 527 the previous day. - The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG09 contract was 576 yesterday, up from 517 the previous day. - The spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 151 yesterday, up from - 205 the previous day. - The spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 126 yesterday, up from - 155 the previous day. - The spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was - 126 yesterday, up from - 155 the previous day [1]. - **Key Industrial Chain Data**: - The PDH operating rate this week was 73.8%, up from 72.6% last week. - The MTBE operating rate was 66.6%, down from 67.8%. - The alkylation operating rate was 50.0%, up from 48.8% [1]. 3.2 Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On August 7, 2025, the expected price of propane for September's Saudi CP was 518 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars per ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 488 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars per ton. For October, the expected price of propane was 532 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars per ton, and the expected price of butane was 502 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 9 US dollars per ton [9]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., have PDH device maintenance plans, with some start times dating back to 2023 and some end times yet to be determined [10]. - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Many production enterprises, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Plant, Zhenghe Petrochemical, etc., have device maintenance plans, with different normal production volumes, loss volumes, start times, end times, and maintenance durations [11].