| | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） | 9,020 | -125 | -200 | 450 | | | | Si2601成交量（手） | 293,210 | 731 | -74,606 | 68,142 | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 251,302 | -16,456 | -16,999 | 108,921 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 54,045 | -150 | 830 | - | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 270,607 | -7,309 | 1,173 | - | | | | PS2601持仓量（手） | 145,191 | 1,165 | 19,674 | - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元/吨） | -360 | -30 | -375 | -360 | | | | 工业硅：买近月抛连一跨期成本（元/吨） | 88.5 | -5.3 | -7. ...

西安，这座曾见证丝绸之路驼铃悠扬的古城，于11月15日迎来了期货界的"奥斯卡盛典"——第十九届全 国期货（期权）实盘交易大赛与第十二届全球衍生品实盘交易大赛颁奖大会。当历史的丝路智慧与现代 金融交易碰撞，一场关于专业、坚守与成长的行业盛会在此拉开帷幕。 步入会场，"高朋满座，胜友如云"是最直观的感受。熟悉的老友重逢叙旧，新识的同行交流探讨，空气 中既有行业聚会的暖意，更透着对专业领域的认可。"曾经牵着骆驼的丝路商人，要判断天气、规划路 线、管好货品，这和我们做期货交易很像似，都得预判风险、把握节奏。"一位参会者的感慨，瞬间将 历史与当下串联——古老的贸易智慧，如今仍在期货市场的涨跌波动中延续。 实盘大赛金牌导师胡嘉佳直言，每一年都可以看到一些崛起的新秀，每一年也总是会遇见熟悉的老面 孔。新面孔代表着总有新鲜血液涌进，市场一直在发展。老面孔的意义也许就是告诉大家，无论这个市 场多么残酷，但总有一些人可以长期在市场中生存下来。 多次参会的英大期货王烨，对这场盛会有更深的感触："金融市场向来学海无涯，这些顶尖交易高手， 无一不是从刀光剑影的资本修罗场中浴火淬炼、破局而出。"在她看来，会场内济济一堂的同行、交易 者与 ...

Group 1: Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector saw a decline, with fuel oil down 2.71% and crude oil down 0.69% for the week [1] - OPEC+ maintained a moderate production increase of 137,000 barrels per day in November, while announcing a pause in production increases for Q1 2026 to alleviate seasonal inventory buildup [2] - The U.S. crude oil production reached a record high of 13.862 million barrels per day, contributing to supply pressure [2] Group 2: Black Metal Sector - Iron ore prices increased by 1.58% for the week, while coking coal and coke prices decreased by 6.14% and 1.15%, respectively [1] - Domestic steel demand is weakening, while overseas steel demand remains strong, leading to a shift in iron ore fundamentals [10] Group 3: Basic Metals Sector - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 6.15% for the week, driven by increased supply and demand, with a closing price of 87,360 yuan per ton, marking a three-month high [4] - Domestic lithium carbonate production in October was 51,530 tons, a 9.31% increase month-on-month, but the operating rate was only 43% [4][5] Group 4: Agricultural Products Sector - The egg market saw a decline of 5.78% for the week, while live pig prices increased by 0.89% [1] - The market is currently observing consumer demand trends and the potential for inventory reduction in the live pig sector [11]

每经AI快讯，周五（11月14日）纽约尾盘，COMEX黄金期货跌2.70%，报4081.00美元/盎司，本周累涨 1.75%，11月13日曾达到4250美元。COMEX白银期货累涨4.73%，报50.420美元/盎司。COMEX铜期货 累涨1.91%，报5.0515美元/磅。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Core Insights - The Bloomberg Grain Index decreased by 2.17%, closing at 30.3168 points on Friday, November 14 [1] Commodity Summary - CBOT corn futures fell by 2.52%, settling at $4.44 per bushel, with a weekly increase of 0.45% [1] - CBOT wheat futures dropped by 2.04%, closing at $5.41 per bushel, with a weekly decline of 0.23% [1] - CBOT soybean futures decreased by 2.14%, ending at $11.2250 per bushel, with a weekly rise of 0.49% [1] - Soymeal futures declined by 2.00%, with a weekly increase of 1.51% [1] - Soy oil futures fell by 0.16%, while experiencing a weekly rise of 1.00% [1] Livestock Summary - CBOT lean hog futures experienced a weekly decline of 0.35% [1] - Live cattle futures decreased by 0.26% on a weekly basis [1] - Feeder cattle futures saw a weekly increase of 0.19% [1]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.11.14」 螺纹钢市场周报 供应+需求双弱 螺纹期价陷入区间整理 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至11月14日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3053（+19），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3240（+10）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量下调。200（-8.54），同比（-33.94）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回落。本期表需216.37（-2.15），（同比-14.47）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存576.17（-16.37），（同比+130.68）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率38.96%，环比上周减少0.87个百分点，同比去年减少18.62个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 行情展望 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）IMF预计，美国联邦政府"停摆 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed oil, although Canadian rapeseed exports have declined significantly, there are policy - side benefits such as the bio - fuel production incentive plan and the agreement with Pakistan. In China, near - month imported rapeseed supply is structurally tightened, and oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks, leading to a common shutdown phenomenon. Rapeseed oil will continue to be in a de - stocking mode, which supports its price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep rapeseed oil demand at a basic level. Recently, rapeseed oil futures prices have strengthened significantly, with increased short - term fluctuations, and short - term participation is recommended [9]. - For rapeseed meal, analysts expect a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield forecast, and the optimistic trade sentiment supports the US soybean market price, which is beneficial to the domestic meal market through cost transmission. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is still restricted, and oil mills' rapeseed stocks are exhausted with common shutdowns, resulting in less supply pressure. But as the temperature drops, the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture weakens, and the abundant supply of soybeans and the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weaken the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Recently, affected by the strengthening of rapeseed oil prices, rapeseed meal futures prices have declined from high levels, and attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed oil futures rose significantly. The closing price of the 01 contract was 9,923 yuan/ton, an increase of 390 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Canadian rapeseed exports decreased by 54.1% year - on - year. There are policy benefits, but the China - Canada trade negotiation on rapeseed tariffs has not reached an agreement. Near - month imported rapeseed supply is tight, oil mills have exhausted stocks and shut down, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode. However, soybean oil has a substitution advantage, and rapeseed oil demand is mainly basic. The futures price has strengthened recently, with increased short - term fluctuations [9]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed meal futures slightly declined. The closing price of the 01 contract was 2,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 49 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [11]. - **Market Outlook**: Analysts expect a downward adjustment of the US soybean yield forecast, which is beneficial to the domestic meal market. In China, the import of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal is restricted, and oil mills have exhausted stocks and shut down. But the demand for rapeseed meal in aquaculture is weakening, and soybean meal has a substitution advantage. The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the futures price has declined from high levels [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position**: Rapeseed oil futures rose significantly this week, with a total position of 248,580 lots, an increase of 38,090 lots compared to last week. Rapeseed meal futures slightly declined, with a total position of 472,680 lots, an increase of 9,194 lots compared to last week [15]. - **Top 20 Net Positions**: This week, the top 20 net position of rapeseed oil futures changed from a net short position of - 8,654 last week to a net long position of + 5,946. The top 20 net position of rapeseed meal futures increased slightly from + 26,405 last week to + 27,455 [22]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 5,323 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 2,745 lots [28]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,290 yuan/ton, a slight increase from last week, and the basis between the active contract futures price and the Jiangsu spot price was + 367 yuan/ton. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,480 yuan/ton, a slight decrease from last week, and the basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active contract futures price was - 10 yuan/ton [34][40]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was + 499 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was + 65 yuan/ton, at a medium - high level in the same period in recent years [48]. - **Futures - Spot Ratio**: The ratio of the 01 contract of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal was 3.985, and the average spot price ratio was 4.15 [51]. - **Rapeseed Oil - Soybean Oil and Rapeseed Oil - Palm Oil Spread**: The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil - soybean oil was 1,667 yuan/ton, and the spread slightly widened this week. The 01 contract spread of rapeseed oil - palm oil was 1,223 yuan/ton, and the spread also slightly widened this week [60]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The 01 contract spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 602 yuan/ton, and as of Thursday, the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal was 550 yuan/ton [66]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side: Inventory and Import Forecast**: As of November 7, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 0.5 million tons. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in October, November, and December 2025 were 650,000 tons, 100,000 tons, and 6.2 million tons respectively [72]. - **Supply - Side: Import Pressing Profit**: As of November 13, the spot pressing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,247 yuan/ton [76]. - **Supply - Side: Oil Mill Pressing Volume**: As of the 45th week of 2025, the rapeseed pressing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0.0 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons compared to last week, and the weekly startup rate was 0.0% [80]. - **Supply - Side: Monthly Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's rapeseed import volume was 115,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.71% and a month - on - month decrease of 131,400 tons [84]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side: Inventory and Import Volume**: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 516,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.00%. In September 2025, the import volume of rapeseed oil was 156,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.99% and a month - on - month increase of 19,000 tons [88]. - **Demand - Side: Consumption and Production of Edible Vegetable Oil**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 4.95 million tons, and the monthly catering revenue was 450.86 billion yuan [92]. - **Demand - Side: Weekly Contract Volume**: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the weekly contract volume of imported and pressed rapeseed oil in China was 40,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.22% [96]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side: Weekly Inventory**: As of the end of the 45th week of 2025, the inventory of imported and pressed rapeseed meal in China was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28.57% [100]. - **Supply - Side: Import Volume**: In September 2025, China's rapeseed meal import volume was 157,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 29.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 55,700 tons [104]. - **Demand - Side: Monthly Feed Output**: As of September 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 3.1287 million tons [108]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis As of November 14, this week, rapeseed meal fluctuated and closed down. The implied volatility of the corresponding option was 20.65%, a decrease of 0.45% compared to last week's 21.1%, and it was slightly lower than the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [112].

Core Insights - The current spot price of corn starch in Changchun, Jilin is reported at 2560.00 CNY/ton, which is 55.0 CNY/ton higher than the futures main contract price of 2505.00 CNY/ton [1] - The national corn starch production for the week of November 6-12, 2025, reached 328,400 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons from the previous week, with a weekly operating rate of 63.48%, up by 0.72% [3] - The futures market shows that on November 14, the main corn starch futures contract was priced at 2505.00 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 0.36%, and a trading volume of 99,297 contracts [2][3] Price Overview - The price list for corn starch includes various specifications and brands, with prices ranging from 2900 CNY/ton to 3000 CNY/ton depending on the type and delivery location [2] - The highest price reported for food-grade corn starch is 3000 CNY/ton from Henan Huiyi Environmental Technology Co., Ltd. [2] Market Analysis - According to Nanhua Futures, the corn starch market is experiencing stable sales, with spot prices following the rise in raw material costs, particularly as the futures market shows strengthening trends [3] - The top 20 futures companies have a total long position of 176,100 contracts and a short position of 236,300 contracts, indicating a net position of -60,200 contracts, which has increased by 2,381 contracts compared to the previous day [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, the PX market has shown a rebound due to multiple factors. Despite the end of some planned maintenance and the gradual recovery of production capacity, PX output is still limited, driven by the soaring gasoline profit margins and the low benzene prices [2]. - The PTA supply has slightly contracted, while polyester production has remained stable with a load above 90%. Domestic polyester exports are still optimistic. Although the "Golden September and Silver October" period has ended, downstream weaving has performed well, and export demand may improve [2]. - The costs of bottle chips and short fibers follow the market trends. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4600 to 4565, a drop of 35 [2]. - MEG inner - market price decreased from 3961 to 3941, a drop of 20 [2]. - PTA closing price increased from 4670 to 4700, an increase of 30 [2]. - MEG closing price increased from 3891 to 3892, an increase of 1 [2]. - 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6382 to 6330, a drop of 55 [2]. - Short - fiber basis increased from 118 to 143, an increase of 25 [2]. - 12 - 1 spread decreased from 44 to 30, a drop of 14 [2]. - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, an increase of 6 [2]. - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5400 [2]. - The price difference between 1.4D direct - spun and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 985 to 930, a drop of 55 [2]. - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5709 to 5686, a drop of 23 [2]. - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5709 to 5686, a drop of 23 [2]. - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5808 to 5786, a drop of 23 [2]. - Outer - market water bottle chip price decreased from 760 to 755, a drop of 5 [2]. - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 449 to 463, an increase of 13.63 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10310 [2]. - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3925 to 3980, an increase of 55 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16300 [2]. - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14395 to 14380, a drop of 15 [2]. - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1625 to 1668, an increase of 42.14 [2]. - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7020 [2]. - Hollow short - fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 560 to 597, an increase of 36.63 [2]. - Primary low - melting - point short - fiber price remained unchanged at 7480 [2]. Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber: The main futures of polyester staple fiber dropped 28 to 6224. The prices of production factories were stable, while those of traders decreased. Downstream demand was average, and on - site transactions were differentiated [2]. - Bottle chips: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5680 - 5800 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. PTA and bottle chip futures fluctuated first down and then up. The supply - side quotations were a mix of stable and falling. The market trading atmosphere was light, and downstream terminals mainly followed up with rigid demand [2]. Operating Rates and Sales Ratios - Direct - spun short - fiber load (weekly) decreased from 85.63% to 85.14% [3]. - Polyester staple fiber sales ratio increased from 38.00% to 56.00%, an increase of 18.00% [3]. - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3]. - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) increased from 51.00% to 51.50%, an increase of 0.01 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for the energy and chemical sector shows mixed performance, with glass futures experiencing a slight decline due to weak demand from the real estate sector and high inventory levels [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, the main glass futures contract has decreased by 1.52%, trading at 1036.00 yuan/ton [1] - The overall market sentiment appears weak, with futures prices continuing to fall into undervalued territory [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Glass production has decreased by 12,100 tons week-on-week, maintaining a daily melting rate of 159,100 tons [1] - Demand is negatively impacted by a sluggish real estate market, leading to poor demand outlook and expectations of supply reduction [1] - Despite expectations for supply-demand adjustments, short-term consumption during the peak season is below expectations, with inventory remaining high [1] Group 3: Inventory Levels - As of November 13, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises reached 63.247 million heavy boxes, an increase of 111,000 heavy boxes week-on-week, representing a 0.18% rise [1] - Year-on-year, inventory levels have increased by 33.61%, with an average inventory holding period of 27.5 days, up by 0.4 days from the previous period [1]