每经AI快讯，2月2日，钯金期货日内涨1%，现报1721.00美元/盎司。 每经AI快讯，2月2日，钯金期货日内涨1%，现报1721.00美元/盎司。 ...

| 11/11/2 | > 国技期货 | | | 化工日报 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 操作评级 | | 2026年02月02日 | | 尿素 | 女女女 | 甲醇 | 女女女 | 庞春艳 首席分析师 | | 纯菜 | 女女女 | 苯乙烯 | ★☆★ | F3011557 Z0011355 | | 聚丙烯 | ★☆☆ | 塑料 | ★★★ | | | PVC | ★☆☆ | 烧碱 | ★☆☆ | 牛卉 高级分析师 | | PX | 女女女 | PTA | な女女 | F3003295 Z0011425 | | 乙二醇 | 女女女 | 短纤 | なな女 | 周小燕 高级分析师 | | 玻璃 | ☆☆☆ | 纯碱 | ☆☆☆ | F03089068 Z0016691 | | 瓶片 | 文文文 丙烯 | | ★☆☆ | | | | | | | 王雪忆 分析师 | | | | | | F03125010 Z0023574 | | | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【烯烃-聚 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Coke**: As of the week ending January 30, the combined daily average coke output of coking plants and steel mills was 1.1021 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 400 tons. Coking enterprises suffered heavy losses, with the profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants monitored by Steelhome being -55 yuan/ton, a weekly improvement of 11 yuan/ton but still in the red. In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.2798 million tons, a slight weekly decrease of 1200 tons. Overall, there were few changes in the coke fundamentals, and with no continuous support from raw material coking coal, coke futures were expected to remain in a low - level range [5][31]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending January 30, the daily average output of clean coking coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 771,000 tons, basically flat week - on - week with a slight increase of 1000 tons and 37,000 tons higher than the same period last year. On the demand side, as of the same week, the combined daily output of coke from coking plants and steel mills was 1.1021 million tons, also basically flat week - on - week with a slight increase of 400 tons. Overall, there were no obvious changes in the coking coal fundamentals. There were three potential positive factors: downstream winter storage was still ongoing, providing some support for coking coal spot prices; with the Spring Festival approaching, there were expectations of early mine shutdowns; and the tense situation in the Middle East led to a geopolitical premium in crude oil, driving up energy - related commodities. However, lacking domestic policy support and strong fundamentals, coking coal futures still lacked the momentum for continuous growth, and prices were expected to remain range - bound in the near term [5][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - **Steel Enterprise Emission Reform**: As of February 2, 276 steel enterprises had completed the public announcement of ultra - low emission transformation, with Sichuan Dazhou Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. being the latest one to announce its progress on that day [7]. - **Coking Coal Price**: On February 2, the price of coking coal in Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory cash - inclusive price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) at 1630 yuan/ton [8]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port Quasi - first - grade FOB) | 1470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Coke (Qingdao Port Quasi - first - grade Ex - warehouse) | 1450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 5.23% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian Coal) | 1240 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian Coal) | 1590 yuan/ton | 2.58% | 5.30% | 6.71% | 6.71% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi Coal) | 1780 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 4.71% | 16.34% | 19.46% | [9] Futures Market | Futures Market | Active Contract | Closing Price | High Price | Low Price | Change | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | Coke | 1680.5 yuan/ton | 1750.0 yuan/ton | 1356.74 yuan/ton | - 3.42% | 23,708 | - 29,542 | | - 19,903 | | | Coking Coal | | | | | | | 36,086 | | [12] Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts showed the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel mills' coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [13][15][16]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts presented the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal, and 247 sample steel mills' coking coal from 2021 to 2026 [18][20][21]. - **Other Charts**: Included domestic steel mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, coal washery production (clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking plant operation (coke profit per ton and coke oven capacity utilization rate) [26][28][31]. 后市研判 (Outlook) - **Coke**: The fundamentals remained stable, and futures were expected to stay in a low - level range due to lack of continuous support from coking coal [31]. - **Coking Coal**: Despite some positive factors, futures lacked the momentum for continuous growth and were expected to trade in a range [32].

免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,834.00 | -38.00↓ SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,624.00 | -36.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 536,384.00 | +22486.00↑ SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 324,259.00 | +37136.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -42,098.00 | +1204.00↑ 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -19,863.00 | +4897.00↑ | | | SM5-3月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 34.00 | +4.00↑ SF4-3月合约价差（日，元/吨） | -8.00 | +2.00↑ | | | SM 仓单（日，张） | 37,692.00 | -221.00↓ SF 仓单（日，张） | 8,198.00 | -362.00↓ | | | 内蒙古锰硅 FeMn68Si ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - On Monday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The price center dropped significantly to below 16,000 yuan/ton during the session, closing down 3.73% at 15,980 yuan/ton. The premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 130 yuan/ton. Affected by the overall decline of the energy - chemical sector, it is expected that the rubber price will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the future [6]. - On Monday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The highest price reached 2,343 yuan/ton, and the lowest dropped to 2,243 yuan/ton, closing down 3.92% at 2,252 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 26 yuan/ton. Supported by the bearish atmosphere, methanol futures may maintain a weak and volatile trend [6]. - On Monday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2603 showed a trend of weak volume, reducing positions, weak downward movement, and a significant decline. The highest price reached 485.6 yuan/barrel, and the lowest dropped to 449.0 yuan/barrel, closing down 7.02% at 449.0 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risks in the Middle East weakened and the hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve increased, the crude oil premium significantly retracted, and the oil price started a short - term correction [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 25, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 584,500 tons, a decrease of 400 tons or 0.07% from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 94,500 tons, a decrease of 5.03%; the general trade inventory was 490,000 tons, an increase of 0.95%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse of the Qingdao natural rubber sample decreased by 6.73 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 2.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 0.06 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.41 percentage points [8]. - As of January 30, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 74.32%, a month - on - month increase of 0.48 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 59.86 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 50.96 percentage points. During the period, some semi - steel tire sample enterprises were supported by foreign trade orders, and the device production schedule increased slightly, supporting the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises; the shipment of all - steel tires was mediocre, and some enterprises still had production control, dragging down the capacity utilization rate to decline slightly [8]. - In 2025, the cumulative production and sales of automobiles reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. The production and sales volume reached a new high, and the scale of production and sales has remained above 30 million for three consecutive years, ranking first in the world for 17 consecutive years. Among them, the cumulative production and sales of passenger cars reached 30.27 million and 30.103 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. The cumulative production and sales of Chinese commercial vehicles reached 4.261 million and 4.296 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%. The production and sales returned to more than 4 million. In 2025, the annual automobile exports exceeded 7 million, reaching 7.098 million, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% [9]. - In December 2025, about 95,000 heavy - duty trucks were sold in the Chinese market, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and an increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 in the same period last year. In total, in 2025, the total sales volume of the Chinese heavy - duty truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [9]. Methanol - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate remained at 87.03%, a week - on - week increase of 1.35%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45%, and a significant increase of 10.22% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0378 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13,300 tons, and a significant increase of 112,100 tons compared with 1.9257 million tons in the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate remained at 29.98%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5%. Meanwhile, the dimethyl ether operating rate remained at 7.24%, a week - on - week increase of 1.45%. The acetic acid operating rate remained at 83.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.33%. The MTBE operating rate remained at 58.15%, a week - on - week increase of 0.01%. As of the week of January 30, 2026, the average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 76.53%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.47 percentage points and a month - on - month decrease of 4.79%. As of January 30, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefins was - 136 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 102 yuan/ton and a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of January 30, 2026, the port methanol inventory in East and South China remained at 993,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 174,800 tons, and a significant increase of 229,500 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 29, 2026, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 454,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 15,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 50,100 tons, and a significant decrease of 119,200 tons compared with 573,400 tons in the same period last year [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the number of active oil rigs in the United States was 409, a week - on - week decrease of 1 and a decrease of 63 compared with the same period last year. As of the week of January 23, 2026, the daily average crude oil production in the United States was 13.696 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 36,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 456,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [11]. - As of the week of January 23, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 423.8 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.295 million barrels and a significant increase of 8.628 million barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 24.785 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 278,000 barrels; the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 515,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States remained at 90.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.4 percentage points, a month - on - month decrease of 3.8 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 7.4 percentage points [12]. - As of January 27, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were 96,982 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 18,190 contracts and a significant increase of 38,211 contracts or 65.02% compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts. On the other hand, as of January 27, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 217,962 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 12,191 contracts and a significant increase of 112,503 contracts or 106.68% compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts [12]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,900 yuan/ton | - 350 yuan/ton | 15,980 yuan/ton | - 380 yuan/ton | - 80 yuan/ton | + 30 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,255 yuan/ton | - 27 yuan/ton | 2,252 yuan/ton | - 68 yuan/ton | + 3 yuan/ton | - 41 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 453.0 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 449.0 yuan/barrel | - 21.8 yuan/barrel | + 4.0 yuan/barrel | + 21.9 yuan/barrel | [14] 3. Related Charts - Rubber: The report provides charts on rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [15][17][19] - Methanol: The report provides charts on methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol to olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [27][29][31] - Crude Oil: The report provides charts on crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [39][40][42]

期货研究报告 2026年02月02日 周报 钢材：市场驱动不足，钢价震荡运行 展望：综合来看，螺纹钢市场短期将处于多空博弈交织之中。相对偏低水平库存和宏观暖意限制价格大 幅下跌的空间，而疲软的实际需求和持续的累库过程也抑制了上涨动能，预计价格将以小幅盘整为主，整体 走势偏稳，趋势性行情需待节后需求表现。 风险提示：宏观政策、成材需求、钢材出口、钢厂利润、炉料成本支撑等。 | 钢材 | 单位 | 最新一周 | 上一期 | 周度环比变化量 | 周度环比变化率 | 频率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 钢厂日均铁水产量 | 万吨 | 227.98 | 228.1 | -0.12 | -0.05% | 周度 | | 螺纹钢厂库存 | 万吨 | 149.13 | 148.98 | 0.15 | 0.10% | 周度 | | 螺纹社会库存 | 万吨 | 326.4 | 303.12 | 23.28 | 7.68% | 周度 | | 热卷钢厂库存 | 万吨 | 77.25 | 76.64 | 0.61 | 0.80% | 周度 | | 热卷社会库存 | 万吨 ...

2月2日，国内期市能化板块大面积飘绿。其中，乙二醇期货盘中低位震荡运行，截至发稿主力合约大幅 下挫4.38%，报3777.00元/吨。 库存方面，据瑞达期货（002961）介绍，截至1月29日华东主港地区MEG库存总量81.2万吨,较上一期增 加2.83万吨。 后市来看，东海期货表示，显性库存进一步上升至近2年多以来的新高85.8万吨，且基差也并未出现和 盘面同等幅度的上行。另外下游面临减产问题，乙二醇近期出货情况也较差，叠加近期聚酯风向标PTA 的资金持仓逐渐在减少，乙二醇后期继续对前高进行突破的概率仍然有限。 现货方面，新湖期货指出，上一交易日，乙二醇价格重心宽幅波动，市场商谈一般。日内现货基差表现 偏强，场内贸易商换手操作为主，午后下周现货基差走强至05合约贴水107-110元/吨附近。 产业基本面上，五矿期货分析称，国外装置负荷检修量相较于四季度偏高，但国内检修量下降幅度仍然 不足，目前整体负荷仍然偏高。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - PX: High-level volatile market, backwardation in calendar spreads - PTA: High-level volatile market - MEG: Range-bound trading [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Before the holiday, it will be a high-level volatile market in the single contract, with backwardation in calendar spreads. The industry and funds are in a game, and the high-level volatility increases. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, and PX has entered a pattern of inventory accumulation. PTA processing fees above 450 should be shorted on rallies [7]. - PTA: It will be a range-bound market, with a bearish outlook on calendar spreads. PTA processing fees above 450 should be shorted on rallies. The polyester demand for PTA is expected to decline marginally, and it is difficult to change the PTA inventory accumulation pattern from January to February. Pay attention to the support at 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [8]. - MEG: It will be a range-bound market in the single contract. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand is weakening, making it difficult to change the inventory accumulation pattern [8][9]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - Yesterday's closing prices: PX主力 at 7400, PTA主力 at 5270, MEG主力 at 3913, PF主力 at 6656, SC主力 at 470.8. The price changes were -82, -62, -44, -64, -1.7 respectively, and the percentage changes were -1.10%, -1.16%, -1.11%, -0.95%, -0.36% respectively [2]. - Calendar spreads: PX5 - 9 at 16, PTA5 - 9 at -12, MEG5 - 9 at -105, PF3 - 4 at -56, SC2 - 3 at -5.2. The price changes were 0, 6, -8, 0, 2.6 respectively [2]. Spot Market - Yesterday's spot prices: PX CFR China at 914.33 dollars/ton, PTA East China at 5290 yuan/ton, MEG spot at 3814 yuan/ton, Naphtha MOPJ at 596.5 dollars/ton, Dated Brent at 72.7 dollars/barrel. The price changes were -7, 40, -23, 0.5, 0.35 respectively [2]. - Spot processing fees: PX - Naphtha spread at 325 dollars/ton, PTA processing fee at 398.44 yuan/ton, Short - fiber processing fee at 120.64 yuan/ton, Bottle - chip processing fee at 121.38 yuan/ton, MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai crude spread at -4.34 dollars/ton. The price changes were -13, 6.79, -21.37, -73.92, 0 respectively [2]. Fundamental News - PX: On January 30, the PX price fell. The physical spread between PX and naphtha narrowed. The domestic PX plant operating rate rose to 89.2%, and the Asian plant operating rate was 81.6% (+1%). The PTA operating rate remained at 76.6%. The PX import volume in the first quarter increased to about 900,000 tons per month [3][5][7]. - MEG: A 400,000 - ton/year syngas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Xinjiang plans to shut down for equipment replacement this weekend, expected to last about 5 days. The plant operating rate rose to 74.4% (+1.3%), and the import volume from January to February will remain high [6][8]. - Polyester: The polyester maintenance volume from January to February was about 1.562 million tons, and a 200,000 - ton plant is scheduled for maintenance in March. A 400,000 - ton plant in Zhejiang will shut down for maintenance and plans to restart in early March. On January 30, the sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber were polarized, with an average sales - to - production ratio of 65%. The sales - to - production ratio of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was about 30% [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures market of various energy - chemical products shows diverse trends, including high - level oscillations, declines, and range - bound operations. For example, p - xylene is in a high - level oscillating market with a weakening monthly spread, while rubber is in a wide - range weakening trend [2][12]. - The fundamentals of different products vary. Some are affected by factors such as supply and demand changes, cost support, and geopolitical risks. For instance, the supply of PTA is in a cumulative pattern, and the demand for rubber may face a short - term callback risk due to high prices [12][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: In a high - level oscillating market with a weakening monthly spread. The fundamentals are gradually weakening, with an increase in domestic and overseas device starts, and it is entering a cumulative inventory pattern. PXN processing fees have rebounded, and PTA processing fees above 450 are recommended to be shorted on rallies [12]. - **PTA**: In an interval oscillating market with a bearish monthly spread. The demand for polyester is expected to decline marginally, and it is in a cumulative inventory pattern. Attention should be paid to the support level of 5100 - 5200 yuan/ton [13]. - **MEG**: In a unilateral interval oscillating market. The supply device start - up rate has increased, and imports remain high. The demand for polyester is expected to decline in the short term, and it is difficult to change the cumulative inventory pattern [13]. 3.2 Rubber - In a wide - range weakening trend. The import volume in January is expected to decrease compared with December, but it is still at a high level. The global supply is expected to decrease seasonally, and the cost side supports the rubber price. However, downstream demand is resistant to high - priced raw materials, and there is a risk of a short - term pullback [15][17]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - In a high - level decline pattern. Macro - level factors such as geopolitical risks and Federal Reserve nominations affect the market sentiment. Some valuation indicators are approaching the boundary, and the negative feedback expectation from downstream enterprises has increased [20]. 3.4 LLDPE - The import profit has narrowed, and the offer is limited, but it is supported by oil prices. The raw material price of crude oil has strengthened, and the ethylene monomer link has continued to weaken. The mid - stream trading is active, but the downstream has not followed up to replenish inventory. Attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure caused by high inventory and weakening demand before the Spring Festival [21][22]. 3.5 PP - Supported by the rising oil price cost. The cost side of crude oil and propane is strong, and the supply has no new production before the 2605 contract. The demand is mainly driven by new orders for downstream rigid demand, and the overall fundamental support is limited. Attention should be paid to the marginal changes of PDH devices [24][25]. 3.6 Caustic Soda - Supported by cost, with strong future expectations. The previous logic of shorting caustic soda profits may be challenged in the later stage. Although the spot is weak in the short term, the market has strong expectations for the future. Attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts [28]. 3.7 Pulp - In a wide - range oscillating trend. The supply - demand fundamentals remain at a weak rigid - demand level, with continuous pressure on port inventory on the supply side and no improvement in demand on the demand side. The market lacks upward driving force [33][34]. 3.8 Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The price of float glass in most regions remains stable, with only partial price increases in the central China region. The market demand is limited, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy of manufacturers in high - inventory regions [37][38]. 3.9 Methanol - Oscillating with support. The macro - level sentiment is weak, but the international energy price provides support. The supply - demand pattern is weak in the short term, and the high - level operation of port inventory suppresses the upside space. Attention should be paid to the cost support below [43]. 3.10 Urea - Oscillating and falling. The macro - level sentiment is weak, and the small - scale state reserve release suppresses speculative signals. The 05 contract has a fundamental pressure level of around 1830 yuan/ton and a support level of around 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton [46][47]. 3.11 Styrene - In a strong - oscillating trend. The downstream profit is continuously squeezed, and it is in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The inventory is in a seasonal cumulative pattern, and the upward driving force is limited. Attention should be paid to the restart of parking devices [48][49]. 3.12 Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The supply of soda ash enterprises is at a high level, and the downstream demand is average, with purchases on demand. The short - term market lacks substantial support, and the price may oscillate weakly and stably [54]. 3.13 PVC - The sentiment is strong, but the fundamentals have not improved significantly. It is supported by factors such as export rush, the Mercury - Free Convention, and future production reduction expectations in the short term. However, it still faces a pattern of high production and high inventory, and attention should be paid to the pressure on long - position holders to take delivery [58][59]. 3.14 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: In a strong - oscillating trend with a continuation of high - volatility. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: In a narrow - range adjustment, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to shrink [62]. 3.15 Container Freight Index (European Line) - In an oscillating market. The freight rates of European and US - West routes show a downward trend, and attention should be paid to factors such as shipping capacity and geopolitical risks [64]. 3.16 Short Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Short Fiber**: In a high - level oscillation with increased volatility. The futures are weak, and the spot price of the factory rises slightly. The sales of direct - spun polyester staple fiber are polarized [76]. - **Bottle Chip**: In a high - level oscillation with increased volatility. The upstream raw material futures oscillate and fall, and the factory price is mostly stable. The market trading atmosphere is acceptable [76][77]. 3.17 Offset Printing Paper - Hold short positions and conduct a 3 - 4 reverse spread. The prices in the Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the cost is slightly reduced, and the profit is slightly improved. The market trading atmosphere is weak [79][80][82]. 3.18 Pure Benzene - In a strong - oscillating trend. The port inventory is in a cumulative pattern, and the spot price has increased. Attention should be paid to the inventory changes and the price difference between pure benzene and other products [84][85].

证券代码：839979 工业硅期货周报 2026年01月26日-01月30日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 1 回顾与展望 3 回顾与展望——工业硅 本周05合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为8730元/吨,周五收盘价为8850元/吨，周涨幅为1.37%。 供给端来看,本周工业硅供应量为8.3万吨，环比减少2.35%。本周样本企业产量为44140万吨,环 比持平;其中云南样本企业开工率为20.36%,环比持平,四川样本企业开工率为0%,环比本周持续停产 新疆样本企业开工率为86.22%,环比持平,西北样本企业开工率为83%,环比持平。预计本月开工率为 61%,较上月开工率64.59%减少3.59个百分点。 需求端来看,本周工业硅需求为7万吨，环比减少4.10%,需求持续低迷。具 ...