2025 年 05 月 14 日 豆粕：贸易摩擦缓和，连粕偏弱震荡 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2507（元/吨） | 4160 +4（+0.10%） | 4155 | -5（-0.12%） | | 期 货 | （元/吨） DCE豆粕2509 | -7（-0.24%） 2886 | 2880 | -23（-0.79%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | 1075 +5.0（+0.47%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 293.6 -4.7（-1.58%） | | n a | | | | | （43%） 豆粕 | | | | （元/吨） 山东 平； | 较昨-20或+10； 3030～3160， 货M2509+50； 6-7月M2509-70/-60/-30， 8-9月M2509+20/+30/+60， | 现 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by the new U.S. government to impose "reciprocal tariffs" on all trade partners has triggered global reactions, with many countries seeking to restart trade negotiations, while China has implemented a series of countermeasures, including imposing equivalent tariffs on U.S. goods and placing certain U.S. companies on an unreliable entity list [1][2]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Policy Evolution - Since the reform and opening up, U.S.-China trade relations have developed through cooperation and competition, with U.S. trade policy evolving from "engagement and cooperation" to "strategic containment" [4][6]. - The U.S. has repeatedly initiated trade sanctions against China, particularly through "Section 301 investigations," citing issues like intellectual property infringement and unfair trade practices [6][7]. - The trade disputes intensified after China's accession to the WTO in 2001, leading to significant increases in trade volume and persistent trade surpluses for China [7][8]. Group 2: Impact of Tariff Shocks on Economies - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded the global growth forecast for 2025 to 2.8%, with the U.S. growth rate expected to slow to 1.8%, the largest adjustment among developed economies [1][2]. - Tariff increases from the U.S. are expected to lead to a decline in demand for Chinese exports, affecting production capacity and employment in export-oriented sectors [11][12]. - The dual effects of supply-side and demand-side shocks from tariffs create a "stagflation" scenario, complicating monetary policy responses [15][20]. Group 3: Monetary Policy Adjustments - In response to external shocks, China is expected to adopt an expansionary monetary policy to stimulate demand and mitigate the negative impacts of tariff increases [18][21]. - The People's Bank of China has indicated a shift towards a moderately loose monetary policy, with potential interest rate cuts and liquidity support to stabilize the economy [18][22]. - Structural monetary policy tools are being utilized to guide credit towards specific sectors, particularly those affected by trade policies, to support economic stability [22][23]. Group 4: Future Considerations - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff impacts necessitate a balanced approach between supply-side management and monetary policy coordination in China [26]. - The effectiveness of monetary policy may be constrained by the need to manage inflation and economic growth simultaneously, particularly in the context of U.S. monetary policy tightening [21][26]. - Future structural monetary policies will focus on supporting foreign trade enterprises while ensuring that credit allocation does not lead to systemic risks in the banking sector [24][25].

Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 3.674 billion CNY, a decrease of 4.62% year-on-year [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 863 million CNY, down 0.28% year-on-year [3] - Basic earnings per share for 2024 were 1.61 CNY, a decline of 0.28% year-on-year [3] - The weighted average return on equity for 2024 was 21.80%, a decrease of 4.01% year-on-year [3] - In Q1 2025, revenue was 606 million CNY, down 19.09% year-on-year [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025 was 118 million CNY, a decrease of 19.58% year-on-year [3] - Basic earnings per share in Q1 2025 were 0.22 CNY, down 19.58% year-on-year [3] - The weighted average return on equity in Q1 2025 was 2.75%, a decrease of 1.12% year-on-year [3] Group 2: Product Overview - The company's main business is divided into two core segments: compressors and vacuum pumps [3][4] - Refrigeration products include commercial central air conditioning compressors, frozen and refrigerated compressors, and heat pump compressors [3] - Air compressors are essential in various industries, including engineering machinery, pharmaceuticals, electronics, and mining [4] - The company is expanding into oil-free air compressor markets, targeting industries with high air quality requirements [4] - Vacuum products are primarily used in the photovoltaic and semiconductor industries, with plans to expand into lithium batteries, pharmaceuticals, and chemical manufacturing [4] Group 3: Future Projections - The company projects a revenue of 3.301 billion CNY for 2025, a decrease of 10.15% year-on-year [4] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 692 million CNY, down 19.81% year-on-year [4] - The company's performance in the U.S. market is currently low, with minimal direct impact from U.S.-China tariffs [4] - Future trade tensions may adversely affect export business [4]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 05 月 14 日 浙商早知道 市场总览 重要推荐 【浙商家电 张云添/芦家宁】TCL 智家（002668）公司点评：冰箱 ODM 出口龙头，有望受益于冰箱出口景气延 续 ——20250512 重要观点 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2025 年 05 月 14 日 ：王禾 执业证书编号：S1230512110001 ：021-80105901 ：wanghe@stocke.com.cn 大势：5 月 13 日上证指数上涨 0.17%，沪深 300 上涨 0.15%，科创 50 下跌 0.15%，中证 1000 下跌 0.27%，创业 板指下跌 0.12%，恒生指数下跌 1.87%。 行业：5 月 13 日表现最好的行业分别是银行（+1.52%)、美容护理（+1.18%)、医药生物（+0.9%)、交通运输 （+0.72%)、煤炭（+0.62%)，表现最差的行业分别是国防军工（-3.07%)、计算机（-0.8%)、机械设备（- 0.66%)、电子（-0.64%)、通信（-0.61%)。 资金：5 ...

"90天关税暂停令许多美国农民感到宽慰。"美国商业和经济新闻网站Marketplace刊文称。据报道，北达科他州大豆农民乔希·加克尔听闻中美达成 协议后心情好了很多，他说："我们正在取得进展，正在播种，所以我感觉很好。我们还有很多工作要做，我很感激两国正在展开对话。"与此同 时，他也对中美双边关税暂停90天之后的情况抱有谨慎的希望，8月刚好是他种植的大豆快要收获之时，他希望自己投入资金后能够得到回报。 据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）巴西频道报道，美国大豆协会主席凯莱布·拉格兰对"朝着问题解决迈出的第一步"表示满意，但他表示，目前的关 税税率"依然过高"，可能还是会让美国大豆在中国的市场份额下降。 据《环球时报》驻巴西特派记者观察，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布后，巴西农业媒体和农业从业者最关心的是大豆的价格和出口。今年4月 初，中国与巴西签署了至少240万吨的大豆采购合同，这相当于中国月均进口量的近1/3。 【环球时报综合报道】编者的话：近几年，中国在从美国进口大豆等农产品的同时，也开始增加从南美等地区国家的农产品进口。中国持续推动 农产品进口多元化，巴西已超越美国成为中国最大的大豆供应国，中国和阿根廷签署了 ...

涤纶长丝市场近况交流 20250513 摘要 • 中美贸易摩擦对涤纶长丝直接出口影响小（占比 1.67%），但对整体纺织 品服装出口影响大（美国占中国总出口 11%，中国占美国进口 33%）， 南亚东南亚国家难以完全承接中国订单，美国或接受高价继续采购。 • 2025 年一季度中国纺织品服装出口增速 1%，低于孟加拉（6.4%）、越 南（11.1%）等国，但美国库存偏低，中国仍有机会通过提升产品附加值 保持竞争力。 • 2025 年全球主要经济体原油库存低位，海外成品库存也较低，一季度美 国、欧盟库存增速分别为 18.9%、24.7%，若油价维持低位缓步抬升，中 国纺织品服装直接出口将受益，一季度化纤机织物出口同比增速达 16%。 • 2025 年中国纺织品服装出口金额表现较弱，因成品端出口单价下降显著， 如化纤梭织物服装单价下降 10.9%，导致涤纶长丝、中端纺织品、服装出 口金额失速。4 月原料价格下跌，中端主动去库存。 • 目前涤纶长丝类坯布库存 33 天，高于五年均值 30 天，但 4 月底到 5 月初 订单环比抬升。终端 DTY 工厂和纱厂已开始去库存，DTY 大厂库存从 33 天降至 23 天，P ...

开润股份 20250513 摘要 • 开润股份通过将产能转移至印尼，有效规避了中美贸易摩擦带来的关税风 险，尤其是在箱包和服装代工制造领域，印尼产能分别占比 60%-65%和 接近 80%。 • 公司采用 FOB 合作模式，将物流和关税成本转嫁给客户，降低了自身的成 本压力，确保了对美国市场的稳定供应。 • 中美贸易谈判的缓和，包括关税暂缓措施和阶段性协议，稳定了市场情绪， 使得开润股份的客户订单未出现显著波动，维持了终端需求的稳定。 • 尽管美国市场需求可能受到高关税影响，但由于中美达成阶段性协议，且 纺织品等民生行业受到保护，美国市场对服装、箱包等产品的需求仍有支 撑。 • 大型欧美客户如阿迪达斯、耐克等逐步将产能转移至东南亚，印尼因其劳 动力成本优势和与中美良好的经济关系，成为具有竞争力的生产基地。 • 公司印尼工厂的新生产线落地和效率爬坡顺利，但服装板块生产效率较低， 主要原因是新客户订单规模化不足，公司计划通过精简 SKU、提升单款规 模以及提高供应链效率来提升印尼产线的生产效率。 • 目前至少可以保证到第三季度末的订单相对确定，服装和包包类客户已经 预告了四季度订单，今年整体订单确定性较高，政策出 ...

关税冲击影响跟踪：宏观与消费 20250513 摘要 • 中美贸易摩擦缓和预期提升风险偏好，利好中国市场，但 30%关税仍是重 要影响。中国资本市场有望相对美国表现更好，短期内贸易摩擦调整较多 的板块或反弹，科技加红利仍是看好的主线。 • 预计全年中国对美出口仍将保持正增长，即使美国加征 30%的关税，对美 出口下降 25 个百分点，对整体出口影响为 3.6 个百分点，对 GDP 影响大 约是 0.5 个百分点。 • 政策应对方面，应重点落实存量政策，通过政策性金融工具应对短期冲击， 预计规模在 8,000 亿到 1 万亿左右，而非增发国债或调整赤字率。 • 中国消费产业链具备国际竞争力，在中美贸易摩擦中表现出强韧性。建议 关注国际化能力优秀且海外产能布局丰富的消费行业龙头，如美的、海尔、 海信家电和 TCL 电子。 • 医药行业大部分药品获得关税豁免，但医疗设备加征 145%关税导致对美 出口基本停滞。创新药板块表现强势，医疗设备及耗材类公司股价表现弱 势。关注美国 CPI 上升及特朗普政策对医药行业的影响。 Q&A 目前中国面临的关税情况如何？ 目前，中国面临的关税包括 20%的芬太尼关税、10%的对等关 ...

文|五月 编辑|五月 前言 前言 2025年5月， 中美两国代表团在日内瓦展开了为期两天的谈判。 外界普遍对这场谈判的结果不抱太大希望，尤其是在特朗普政府坚持不降低关税的情况下。 随着会谈的深入，美国在态度上发生了明显变化，尤其是在关税政策上的软化。 这场谈判不仅凸显了美方的急切需求，也揭示了美国在经济和法律方面的巨大压力。 这场关键的对话能否为紧张的中美关系带来新的转机？ 中美日内瓦谈判 2025年5月，日内瓦的中美谈判备受关注。在谈判开始之前，外界普遍对双方能否达成共识持悲观态度。 特朗普总统曾在多个场合表示， 不会为了重新启动谈判而降低对华关税，并且强调关税政策是美国维护国家利益的一部分。 与此同时，中方的态度也十分坚决，外交部发言人林剑回应称： "谈可以谈，要打我们也奉陪到底。" 这一强硬的立场让外界认为，中美之间的对话或许难以取得实质性进展。 随着谈判的进行，局面开始出现转机。美方代表贝森特在最初几轮会谈后表示， 虽然没有太大期望能够达成协议，但至少希望通过此次对话实现一定的"降 温"。 特朗普在会谈结束后通过社交媒体表达了对谈判结果的积极看法，称这是一次非常成功的会面，双方取得了"良好的进展"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent progress in China-US trade talks has led to a stronger Chinese yuan, with the central bank setting the midpoint exchange rate below 7.2 for the first time since early April, indicating a potential shift in currency dynamics amid easing trade tensions [1][3]. Currency Exchange Rate Dynamics - On May 13, the Chinese yuan's midpoint was set at 7.1991, a 75-point increase from the previous day, reflecting a significant strengthening against a basket of currencies [1][5]. - The dollar index remains strong, with the dollar appreciating against major currencies like the yen and euro, while the yuan's strength appears to be a response to the easing of tariff pressures [1][10]. - Analysts predict that the yuan could strengthen further to a range of 7.15 to 7.18, depending on economic conditions and trade negotiations [2][4]. Market Reactions and Predictions - The market has reacted positively to the joint statement from the China-US trade talks, which aims to eliminate unreasonable tariffs imposed since April [7]. - Short-term currency movements will depend on the balance of market forces, particularly the behavior of export companies regarding currency holdings [4][6]. - Institutions expect that the yuan's mid-term trajectory will be influenced by China's economic fundamentals and the outcomes of ongoing trade discussions [6][8]. Broader Economic Implications - The potential for further easing of monetary policy in China is anticipated, especially in light of recent economic indicators and the need to support the real estate market [8][12]. - The recent rebound in US stock indices and the dollar's performance suggest a temporary halt in the trend of shorting dollar assets, with market participants closely monitoring future developments [10][11].