Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core View - The economic data released this week is basically in line with expectations. Although the economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, achieving the 5% annual target remains challenging if exports decline significantly. The economic structure shows that external demand drives strong production, while domestic consumption weakens marginally and the real estate sector undergoes in - depth adjustment. The foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated. Considering the short - term economic resilience, the third quarter is expected to be a policy observation period, and the possibility of further monetary easing may increase in October after the economic recovery situation in the third quarter becomes clear, the tariff negotiation results are known, and the Fed cuts interest rates. Currently, there may not be much room for policy imagination. The bond market is still constrained by funds. Last week, the money market showed signs of bottoming out and rising, and this week it will face the pressure of the large tax - payment month in July. Despite the central bank's active injection of funds, there is still resistance for interest rates to continue to decline, and the lack of further decline in short - term interest rates limits the downward space for long - term interest rates [11][12] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: With a loosening money market and a quiet news environment, treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range and most closed higher. The yields of major on - the - run interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market changed slightly. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year on - the - run treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.660%, up 0.1bp [8][9] - **Money Market**: With the central bank's support, the impact of the tax - payment period weakened and the money market loosened. There were 90 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, and the central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank money market sentiment index declined, indicating a缓和 in the tight money situation. Short - term interest rates also declined slightly. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fell 0.5bp to 1.46%, the 7 - day rate fell 0.7bp to around 1.52%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fell 10bp to 1.53% [10] 2. Industry News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing after a 10 - year interval. President Xi Jinping attended and delivered an important speech, guiding urban work in the new era. Urbanization should follow economic and social development laws and avoid being rushed. Urban ecological construction requires a long - term perspective [13] - Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to study measures for strengthening the domestic economic cycle, heard reports on standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry and the preliminary rectification of problems found in the audit of the 2024 central budget implementation, and reviewed and approved a draft decision on amending the Regulations on the Administration of the Entry and Exit of Foreigners [13] - Wang Huning, Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, stated that comprehensively expanding domestic demand is necessary for long - term and sustainable economic development and to meet people's growing needs. More in - depth research results should be produced and applied [13] - Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, wrote in Qiushi magazine that high - level opening - up should be used to expand new space for Chinese - style modernization, including promoting higher - quality, higher - standard, more inclusive, and more secure opening - up [14] - The European Commission announced a new budget proposal for 2028 - 2034, totaling 2 trillion euros, a significant increase from the current 1.21 trillion euros. Most of the funds will come from EU member states, and the Commission proposed several ways to raise more funds, such as taxing companies with an annual net turnover of over 100 million euros in the EU, which has been questioned by some member states [14] - US President Trump said he has no current plan to take action against Fed Chairman Powell and is unlikely to fire him unless fraud is proven. He also mentioned that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are candidates for Fed positions [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides trading data for treasury bond futures on July 17, including opening, closing, and settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests for different contracts such as TL2509, T2509, TF2509, and TS2509 [6] - **Money Market**: The report presents data on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: It shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]

Market Overview - The A-share market recently saw the Shanghai Composite Index break through the psychological barrier of 3500 points, closing at 3516.83 points, up 0.37% as of July 17 [1][2] - This breakthrough is viewed as a positive market signal, indicating a shift towards bullish sentiment and increased investor confidence, which may attract more capital into the market [1][2] Economic and Policy Support - The overall recovery of the Chinese economy in the first half of the year has provided policy support for the index's return to 3500 points, with a structural upward trend observed in the market [2] - Despite external tariff disruptions, China's export resilience remains strong, particularly with high growth rates in exports to the EU and ASEAN [2] Market Liquidity - The liquidity in the market has improved significantly, with daily trading volumes consistently exceeding 1 trillion yuan, and margin financing balances showing a systematic increase of approximately 300 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2] - The number of newly established funds and the scale of capital raised have also seen substantial growth, indicating a trend of household savings being redirected into the stock market [2] Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - The continuous rise in the stock market has created a notable wealth effect, leading to a 32.79% increase in new investor accounts in the first half of the year compared to the same period last year [3] - The technology sector, particularly companies involved in AI, semiconductors, and 5G, has attracted significant investment, contributing to the index's upward movement [3] Performance of Shandong Stocks - Shandong stocks have shown a robust performance, with 310 listed companies having a total market capitalization of 3.86 trillion yuan, and over 70% of these companies reporting gains [4] - Leading companies such as Haier Smart Home and Wanhua Chemical have shown strong financial performance, with Haier's revenue growing by 10.06% year-on-year in Q1 2025 [4][5] Investment Opportunities - Following the index's rise above 3500 points, investors are cautiously optimistic, focusing on policy support, liquidity, and earnings performance [6] - Various institutions suggest that sectors such as technology, manufacturing, and new consumption are promising areas for investment, particularly in light of easing export controls and growth in military and industrial sectors [6]

Group 1 - The funding environment on July 15 shifted from tight to loose, with overnight rates rising above 1.5% and increased transaction volumes for 7D and 14D products [1][11] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 342.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repo operation at a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the previous level, resulting in a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan into the market [1][14] - The Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) for overnight loans rose by 12.00 basis points to 1.5350%, while the 7-day and 14-day Shibor increased by 3.10 and 4.40 basis points, respectively [2][5] Group 2 - In the interbank pledged repo market, overnight rates exceeded 1.5%, with the weighted average rates for DR001 and R001 rising by 10.6 and 9.1 basis points, respectively [5][8] - The total transaction volume for DR001 decreased by 10.7 billion yuan, while R001 saw an increase of 42.5 billion yuan [5][8] - The primary market for negotiable certificates of deposit (NCDs) showed strong trading sentiment, particularly for 3-month and 1-year maturities, with a total issuance of 134.2 billion yuan on July 15 [12][14] Group 3 - The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued new regulations for local asset management companies, limiting their investment balances with single clients and related parties to a percentage of their net assets [14] - China Pacific Insurance reported a 9.7% year-on-year increase in original insurance premium income for its life insurance subsidiary, totaling 168.01 billion yuan, while its property insurance subsidiary saw a 0.9% increase to 113.99 billion yuan [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market conditions, influencing factors, and offers corresponding investment suggestions for each sector. For example, in the financial derivatives market, it analyzes the trends of stock index futures and treasury bond futures; in the non - ferrous metals sector, it assesses the supply - demand situation and price trends of copper, aluminum, etc. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Monday, the A - share market showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index declined. The four major stock index futures contracts all pulled back. Given the new round of US trade policy negotiation window and the index breaking through the short - term shock range, it is recommended to wait and see for now [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The liquidity tightened, and the central bank increased reverse - repurchase operations. The export growth showed some resilience, and the social financing data was positive. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider going long after adjustment and stabilization, and appropriately bet on a steeper yield curve [5][6][7]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: After the market digested the impact of US tariffs, the US dollar strengthened, and gold and silver prices rose first and then fell. In the long - term, gold is bullish due to the weakening US economic outlook and de - dollarization. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level above $3300 per ounce. Silver may have further impulse - type increases, but there are also risks of increased market volatility [8][9][10]. Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe) - The SCFIS European line index rose 7.26% on July 14. The futures market was volatile. It is expected to be strongly volatile, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract, paying attention to the US - EU trade negotiation situation and the August quotes [12][13]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US copper replenishment ended, and non - US regions returned to fundamental pricing. The supply was expected to be looser, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of 78000 yuan [14][15][18]. - **Alumina**: The spot was temporarily tightened, but the medium - term surplus pattern remained unchanged. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 2950 - 3250 yuan, and it is advisable to short at high levels in the medium - term [18][19][20]. - **Aluminum**: The macro uncertainty increased, and the spot market was in a slack season. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 20000 - 20800 yuan [20][21][22]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The market followed the decline of aluminum prices, with weak fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate weakly between 19400 - 20200 yuan [22][23][24]. - **Zinc**: Concerns about tariffs resurfaced, and the demand outlook was weak. It is expected to fluctuate between 21500 - 23000 yuan [25][26][28]. - **Tin**: Short - term macro disturbances were significant. It is recommended to hold short positions at high levels and expect wide - range fluctuations [28][29][32]. - **Nickel**: The market was in a narrow - range shock, and the industrial surplus still restricted prices. It is expected to adjust within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [32][33][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The market was mainly in a shock state. It is expected to run within the range of 12500 - 13000 yuan, paying attention to policy trends and steel mill production cuts [36][37][38]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market was driven by news and rose significantly. In the short - term, it is expected to run in a relatively strong range between 63000 - 68000 yuan, and it is advisable to wait and see [39][40][42]. Black Metals - **Steel**: In the slack season, steel prices maintained a shock trend. It is recommended to observe whether the current levels of 3100 yuan for rebar and 3300 yuan for hot - rolled coil can be effectively broken [43][44][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The sentiment in the black metal market improved. It is expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term, and it is advisable to go long at low levels and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [46][47]. - **Coking Coal**: The market auction failure rate decreased, and the spot was strongly running. It is advisable to go long at low levels after a pull - back and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [48][49][50]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coking plants planned to raise prices for the first time. It is advisable to conduct hedging for the 2601 contract at high levels, go long at low levels after a pull - back for the 2509 contract, and conduct 9 - 1 positive spreads [51][52][53]. Agricultural Products - **Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal)**: US soybeans stabilized, and the rising import cost supported domestic meal prices. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish in the short - term [54][55][56]. - **Pigs**: The potential supply pressure accumulated, and the price increase was weak. It is advisable to go short at high levels above 14500 yuan [58][59].

Market Overview - The equity market experienced fluctuations with a significant decrease in trading volume, indicating a growing wait-and-see sentiment [1] - The bond market showed a weak trend with government bond yields generally rising by 0-1 basis points [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The 30-year government bond futures rose by 0.30%, while the 10-year and 5-year contracts increased by 0.11% and 0.08% respectively [1] - The 30-year government bond ETF (博时511130) saw a significant inflow of funds, with a net inflow of 1.63 billion and a total scale surpassing 9 billion [1][5] Market Adjustments - Recent adjustments in the bond market are attributed to the market digesting high risk preferences, with daily adjustments exceeding 1 basis point [1] - Despite frequent negative news, key variables influencing the bond market, such as fundamentals and central bank attitudes, have not changed [1] Liquidity and Interest Rates - The liquidity situation is tightening, with the central bank's reverse repo balance decreasing significantly, indicating a net withdrawal of funds [2] - The upcoming tax payment period is expected to exert further pressure on liquidity, with a projected shortfall of approximately 2.3 trillion [2][4] Future Outlook - The bond market may recover quickly if the central bank maintains a supportive stance towards liquidity, presenting opportunities for investors [3][5] - The 30-year government bond ETF is highlighted as a key investment focus due to its strong performance and significant inflows, reflecting investor confidence in long-term bonds [5]

Domestic Market Performance - The equity market experienced a slight upward trend with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to close at 3519.65, while the CSI 300 Index increased by 0.07% to 4017.67 [1][2] - The bond market showed a weak trend with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 0.06 basis points to 1.67% and the 30-year bond yield decreasing by 0.1 basis points to 1.88% [2][7] Overseas Market Influences - The overseas market was affected by tariff policies, with copper prices under pressure due to a 30% tariff announced by the US on the EU and Mexico, while oil prices rose approximately 1.5% due to positive signals from OPEC+ regarding strong demand in Q3 [3] Domestic Commodity Trends - The "anti-involution" policy led to a cooling in trading, with black commodities continuing to rise but at a reduced rate. Coking coal and coke prices increased by 1.15% and 1.09% respectively, while iron ore and rebar saw smaller gains between 0.1% and 0.3% [4] - The photovoltaic industry chain continued to rise, with polysilicon and industrial silicon prices increasing by 0.81% and 3.27% respectively [4] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank increased reverse repos to support liquidity, with a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan on a single day, although funding rates continued to rise due to the approaching tax period [5][6] - The central bank's announcement of a 1.4 trillion yuan buyout repo operation indicated a commitment to maintaining liquidity despite the tightening conditions [6] Equity Market Dynamics - The overall A-share market rose by 0.17% with a trading volume of 1.48 trillion yuan, indicating a cautious sentiment among investors as they awaited clearer market narratives [8] - Bank stocks exhibited volatility, with potential fluctuations expected around upcoming equity registration dates [9] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.26% and 0.67% respectively, with significant inflows into stocks like Meituan and Alibaba, suggesting a potential rebound in the market [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of recognizing risks or opportunities when there is a discrepancy between personal expectations and market conditions, rather than making excuses for oneself. Group 1: Market Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 226.2 billion yuan, with a net injection of 119.7 billion yuan after 106.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [1] - The central bank will conduct a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multi-price bidding for a 1.4 trillion yuan buyout reverse repurchase operation on July 15 [1] - The money market showed mixed results, with the DR001 rate around 1.42% and DR007 around 1.54% [1] Group 2: Financial Data - Strong import and export data were reported, contributing to a bullish stock market, while primary issuance remained weak [2] - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.666% and fluctuated weakly, reaching a high of 1.6775% before settling back to 1.6666% [3] - The central bank's statement regarding "small and medium banks buying bonds" was perceived as a stabilizing measure [4] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The article highlights a cautious sentiment in the bond market, with a notable focus on the central bank's communications and their implications for market stability [4] - The article also references a shift in market interest, comparing the rising popularity of certain investment opportunities to trends in educational admissions [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's expectation of the capital market is marginally cautious, as indicated by the upward movement of certificate of deposit (CD) yields and interest rate swaps (IRS) [2]. - The repo trading volume increased, while the lending scale of large - scale banks decreased, and the lending scale of money market funds increased [3]. - The bill rate decreased, indicating a decrease in credit demand and an increase in bill - padding demand, with general credit demand expected in July. The USD/CNY exchange rate increased, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened [4]. - The capital market is expected to remain balanced this week, but capital interest rate fluctuations may increase [5]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1 Certificate of Deposit and Interest Rate Swap - Last week, the total maturity of CDs was 510.52 billion yuan, and the issuance was 427.13 billion yuan, with a net financing scale of - 83.39 billion yuan. As of the last trading day of last week, the 1 - year AAA CD maturity yield was 1.63%, up from the previous week. This week, the single - week maturity scale of CDs is about 802.81 billion yuan, with greater maturity pressure than the previous week [2]. - In terms of interest rate swaps, the average value of the 1 - year FR007 interest rate swap last week was 1.53%, up from the previous week [2]. 3.2 Repo Market - Last week, the pledged repo trading volume was between 7.7 trillion and 8.6 trillion yuan. The average trading volume of R001 repos was 7,355.9 billion yuan, an increase of 545 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the last trading day of last week, the outstanding repo balance was 11.8 trillion yuan, down from the previous week [3]. - By institution, the lending scale of large - scale banks decreased, and the lending scale of money market funds increased. The borrowing scales of securities firms, funds, and wealth management products decreased. As of Friday, the repo balances of large - scale banks and money market funds were 4.89 trillion yuan and 2.12 trillion yuan, down 694.7 billion yuan and up 48.8 billion yuan from the previous week respectively. The positive repo balances of securities firms, funds, and wealth management products were 1.79 trillion yuan, 2.29 trillion yuan, and 704 billion yuan, down 78.5 billion yuan, 150.3 billion yuan, and 140.5 billion yuan from the previous week respectively [3]. 3.3 Bill and Exchange Rate - Last Friday, the 6M national stock bill transfer quotation was 0.89%, down from the last trading day of the previous week. The decrease in the bill rate indicates a decrease in credit demand and an increase in bill - padding demand, with general credit demand expected in July [4]. - Last Friday, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.17, slightly up from the previous week, and the Sino - US interest rate spread widened. The strong US non - farm payrolls data in June led to a decline in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the increase in short - term supply pressure after the debt ceiling increase pushed up US Treasury yields [4]. 3.4 This Week's Focus - This week, 525.7 billion yuan of open - market funds will mature, including 425.7 billion yuan of reverse repos and 100 billion yuan of MLFs [5]. - China's June trade data will be released on Monday, and the performance of imports and exports will be monitored. China's June and Q2 economic data will be released on Tuesday, and the domestic fundamental performance will be monitored. The US June CPI and PPI data will be released on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively, and the US inflation performance will be monitored. June's financial data may be released this week, and the performance of credit and social financing will be monitored. Tuesday is the tax payment deadline, and the central bank's hedging efforts and capital market disturbances will be monitored [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From July 7 to July 11, 2025, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds through 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The liquidity remained relatively loose but showed a marginal and slight tightening trend during the week. From July 7 to July 13, the net payment of government bonds increased, most of the yields to maturity of inter - bank certificates of deposit (NCDs) rose, and the leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market decreased. From July 14 to July 20, the expected net payment of government bonds is 405.83 billion yuan, and the maturity volume of NCDs is about 802.8 billion yuan [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Funds - **Central Bank Operations**: From July 7 to July 11, 2025, the central bank's reverse repurchase operations involved a release of 425.7 billion yuan and a withdrawal of 652.2 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 226.5 billion yuan. From July 14 to July 18, 425.7 billion yuan of open - market reverse repurchases will mature. On July 15, 100 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) will mature, and considering the tax - payment deadline on the same day and subsequent tax - payment outflows, the central bank may conduct outright reverse repurchase operations [5]. - **Fund Rate Performance**: From July 7 to July 11, 2025, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.32% and 1.38% respectively, down 5.1 basis points and 19.9 basis points compared to June 30 - July 4. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.47% and 1.51% respectively, down 9.7 basis points and 13.2 basis points compared to June 30 - July 4. The significant decline in the weekly average of fund rates was mainly due to the cross - quarter effect in the previous week. Since July, the funds have been generally stable and loose, but in mid - July, affected by the upcoming tax - payment outflows, the fund rates increased slightly. On July 11, DR001 was 1.34%, about 3 basis points higher than on July 7 [6]. - **Government Bond Net Payment**: From July 7 to July 13, 2025, the net payment of government bonds was about 251.1 billion yuan, an increase of about 217 billion yuan compared to June 30 - July 6. Among them, the net financing of treasury bonds was about 139.9 billion yuan, and that of local government bonds was about 111.2 billion yuan. From July 14 to July 20, the expected net payment of government bonds is 405.83 billion yuan, including about 276.05 billion yuan of net treasury bond financing and about 129.78 billion yuan of net local government bond financing [7]. 3.2 Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - **Yield to Maturity**: As of July 11, 2025, the yields to maturity of 1 - month, 3 - month, and 1 - year NCDs were 1.5195%, 1.5600%, and 1.6303% respectively, up 2, 3, and 4 basis points compared to July 4, 2025. During the week, as the funds tightened marginally, the primary issuance price of NCDs increased, and the secondary yields rose [8]. - **Net Financing and Issuance Rate**: From July 7 to July 13, 2025, the net financing of NCDs was about - 8.34 billion yuan, compared with about - 0.28 billion yuan from June 29 to July 6. From July 14 to July 20, the expected maturity repayment of NCDs is 802.8 billion yuan, with an increased roll - over pressure compared to the previous week. On July 11, 2025, the issuance rates of 1 - year NCDs for state - owned large - scale banks and joint - stock banks were 1.62% and 1.63% respectively, up from 1.59% on July 4 [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - **Leverage Ratio in the Inter - bank Bond Market**: From July 7 to July 11, 2025, the average calculated leverage ratio in the inter - bank bond market was 108.18%, compared with 108.53% from June 30 to July 4. On July 11 and July 4, the calculated leverage ratios in the inter - bank bond market were about 107.86% and 108.58% respectively [9].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market is currently experiencing adjustments due to a self-correction of excessive risk appetite, with significant fluctuations observed from July 9 to 11, where daily adjustments exceeded 1 basis point [1][22][25] - Despite the frequent negative rotations in the bond market, key variables influencing the market direction, such as fundamentals, central bank attitudes, and external circulation pressures, have not changed [1][25][37] - The report highlights that the bond market's pricing reference may shift from the stock market to fundamentals as economic data is released, indicating a weak correlation between stock market rebounds and bond market pricing [3][36] Group 2 - The report notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to the 10-year and 30-year government bonds returning to relatively high positions at 1.65% and 1.85%, respectively, making the market more sensitive to positive news and less responsive to negative news [4][37] - It emphasizes that the liquidity situation will be a critical observation period for the central bank's attitude, especially with a significant funding gap expected in mid-July [4][26][39] - The report suggests that despite recent increases in funding prices, overnight rates remain relatively low, indicating that leverage strategies may still be preferred in July [6][39][40] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of recent adjustments in the bond market, where the duration of bond funds has decreased, reflecting a shift in market behavior as institutions reduce their duration amid tightening liquidity [6][24][25] - It also mentions that the government bond issuance volume remains above 400 billion, indicating ongoing government financing activities [6][21] - The report highlights that the leverage ratio in the non-bank sector has decreased significantly, indicating a market-wide trend towards deleveraging [6][24] Group 4 - The report outlines the recent changes in the interest rate environment, with the overnight rates rising to 1.40% and 1.51% for R001 and R007, respectively, indicating a tightening liquidity situation [15][25][26] - It notes that the recent adjustments in the bond market have led to a significant increase in the issuance rates of certificates of deposit, reflecting rising costs for banks [29][30] - The report also highlights the ongoing adjustments in the credit bond market, particularly in the long-end segment, where yields have been affected by negative rotations [17][16] Group 5 - The report indicates that the recent changes in tariffs by the U.S. government may have implications for global trade dynamics, with increased tariffs on key countries potentially impacting the bond market [31][32] - It suggests that the market is currently cautious regarding tariff changes, with a wait-and-see approach being adopted by investors [31][32] - The report emphasizes that the bond market's response to external factors, such as tariffs, may not be immediate, and investors are advised to monitor developments closely [31][32]