5月7日早盘，或受重磅利好刺激，港股三大指数集体高开，其中恒指高开2.24%，恒生科技指数高开 2.72%。开盘后，恒生科技指数ETF（513180）跟随指数上扬，持仓股中，腾讯音乐、同程旅行、阿里 健康、百度集团、携程集团、美团等涨幅居前。 消息面上，5月7日，中国人民银行行长潘功胜在国新办举行的新闻发布会上宣布，降准0.5个百分点， 向市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元，并降低政策利率0.1个百分点。此外，降低个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25个百分点，5年期以上首套房利率由2.85%降至2.6%，其他期限的利率同步调整。国家金融监管总局 局长李云泽表示，近期将加快出台与房地产发展新模式适配的系列融资制度。 东吴证券认为，从总量宽松逻辑看，"降准"和"降息"落地的着眼点是稳定经济增长，"稳增长、稳预 期、稳信心"的诉求前置需要货币政策加大宽松力度，提振内需、稳定预期和信心，"适时降准降息"不 仅可以稳定内需、而且也有利于实现外部均衡，同时当前中国的收益率曲线已经较为平坦，择机"降 息"有利于修正10年期和30年期等长端利率隐含着经济增长预期，同时在暂停国债买卖的情况下，通过 调降短端利率，打开曲线陡峭化的空间。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government is implementing a series of financial policies aimed at stabilizing the market and expectations, including interest rate cuts and liquidity provisions [1][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Adjustments - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has lowered the reserve requirement ratio for financial institutions by 0.5%, which is expected to provide approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [4]. - The structural monetary policy interest rate has been reduced by 0.25 percentage points, and the policy rate has been adjusted from 1.5% to 1.4% [4]. - The personal housing provident fund interest rate has been decreased by 0.25 percentage points, with the 5-year and above first home loan rate dropping from 2.85% to 2.6% [4]. Group 2: Capital Market Support - The PBOC has optimized two monetary policy tools to support the capital market, merging the quotas for securities fund insurance company swaps (5 billion yuan) and stock repurchase loans (3 billion yuan) into a total quota of 8 billion yuan [4]. - The PBOC will also lower the reserve requirement ratio for car rental companies [5]. Group 3: Regulatory and Policy Initiatives - The National Financial Regulatory Administration has introduced eight new policies aimed at increasing financing options for real estate and expanding the scope for long-term investments by insurance funds [5]. - The policies include adjustments to regulatory rules, lowering investment risk factors for insurance companies in stock investments, and developing a comprehensive financing policy for small and private enterprises [5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission is focused on maintaining market stability and enhancing responses to external risks, supporting the Central Huijin Investment Company in its stabilizing role [5].

陕西巨丰投资资讯有限责任公司投资顾问总监郭一鸣也告诉《证券日报》记者，整体看，月初市场流动 性维持在相对宽松水平，5月份资金面预计整体平稳。 5月6日，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4050亿元7天期逆回购操 作，操作利率为1.50%。鉴于当日有10870亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日实现净回笼6820亿元。 数据显示，本周（5月6日至5月9日），逆回购到期规模为16178亿元，其中5月6日逆回购到期10870亿 元，5月7日逆回购到期5308亿元，5月8日至5月9日均无逆回购到期。回顾"五一"节前资金面，央行 在"五一"节前连续多个工作日开展大规模逆回购操作，在节前最后一个工作日（4月30日）操作量由此 前两日的2000亿元、3000亿元加量至5308亿元，当日净投放量也高达4228亿元。 对于"五一"节后资金面，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，节后资金 面向宽，央行利用大额逆回购到期实施资金净回笼，保持市场利率基本稳定，这是历年的季节性规律。 王青也认为，总体上看，与前期相比，未来一段时间市场流动性会处于相对宽松状态。主要原因是4月 初外部环境急 ...

节后首个工作日，公开市场迎来大规模的逆回购到期。根据人民银行官网，5月6日，人民银行开展4050亿元逆回购操作，操作利率1.5%，仍与此前保持一 致。由此计算，公开市场单日实现净回笼6820亿元。 值得一提的是，包括当日到期逆回购在内，本周（5月6日—9日）公开市场将迎来逾1.6万亿元规模的逆回购到期，单周到期规模升至历史高位。市场流动性 的变化带动了资金面变化，4月末资金价格小幅抬升后，面对升温的"适时降准降息"需求，业内普遍认为，5月资金利率有望跟进下调，中短端国债收益率先 受益于资金宽松而下行。 | | | 中国人民银行 THE PEOPLE'S BANK OF CHINA | | | 货币政策司 Monetary Policy Department | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 信息公开 | 新闻发布 | 法律法规 | 货币政策 | 宏观审慎 | 信贷政策 | 金融市场 | 金融稳定 | 调查统计 | 银行 | | | 金融科技 | 人民币 | 经理国库 | 国际交往 | 人员招录 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the US-China trade war on China's economy, emphasizing the need for effective policy responses to external shocks and the importance of domestic demand stimulation in the current economic context [2][4][18]. Group 1: Economic Context and Historical Comparison - The article highlights the differences in China's economic development stages compared to previous crises, noting that per capita GDP has significantly increased, reaching approximately $13,451 in 2024, nearing high-income status [7]. - It compares the external demand shocks from the 1998 Asian Financial Crisis and the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, indicating that the average negative GDP impact was 0.63 percentage points from 1999-2001 and 1.87 percentage points from 2009-2011, totaling a cumulative impact of 5.6 percentage points [3]. - The current economic environment is characterized by a "strong supply, weak demand" scenario, with average GDP growth from 2022-2024 projected at 4.4%, significantly below potential growth rates [8][9]. Group 2: External Economic Environment - China's trade surplus reached a record high in 2024, with total exports amounting to $3.6 trillion and a surplus close to $1 trillion, accounting for approximately 36%-37% of global trade surplus [9][10]. - The article notes that the US has shifted from monetary to fiscal stimulus policies, leading to challenges in maintaining export growth and trade surpluses due to rising inflation and fiscal discipline concerns [10]. - The structure of China's trade surplus has diversified, with significant growth in high-tech product surpluses, indicating competitive advantages in both high and low-end products [11]. Group 3: Policy Responses and Recommendations - The article suggests that China should adopt direct measures to counteract the US's trade pressures while maintaining an open dialogue for resolution [18]. - It emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to stimulate domestic demand, particularly through targeted fiscal transfers to low-income populations, to enhance consumption and economic rebalancing [18]. - The article advocates for structural reforms to improve social security systems, which have historically supported consumption growth and reduced trade surplus levels [17].

，止损价格1060，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 面：纯碱装置运行稳定，无明显波动，部分装置检修预期多在5月份。需求端来看，下游需求不温不火，观 数据来源于第三方，仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 望情绪居多，适量低价补库为主。高价抵触，库存出现小幅去库表现，注意仓位操作，操作上建议，目前 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 纯碱主力合约2509，1360附近可以尝试空单，止损价格1380元，玻璃主力合约2509，1070附近轻仓做多 免责声明 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-05-06 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2506 | TS2509 | TF2506 | TF2509 | T2506 | T2509 | TL2506 | TL2509 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.366 | 102.628 | 106.100 | 106.385 | 109.000 | 109.145 | 120.76 | 121 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.332 | 102.592 | 106.070 | 106.345 | 109.120 | 109.245 | 120.98 | 121.24 | | | 涨跌 | 0.034 | 0.036 | 0.030 | 0.040 | -0.120 | -0.100 | -0.220 | -0.240 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.03% | 0 ...

不过，川普现在大打贸易战，就是想让制造业回流美国，他肯定希望美元走软。从近几个月美元指数持续下跌也能看出来。所以我觉得人民币兑美元不可能 大幅升值，而是在一定区间内缓慢升值。 三、从大盘技术面看市场因为消息上证指数创业板指数都跌破60日线。 从这次发布的信号来看，央行降准降息估计很快就要来了。一旦降准降息落地，市场就会注入更多资金，资金流动性增强，这对市场来说是个中长期的利好 消息。二季度"适时降准降息"的时机已经差不多成熟了，落地时间可能会比预期提前。 国家统计局的数据显示，4月制造业PMI指数为49.0%，比上个月下降了1.5个百分点，回落到了临界点以下；服务业PMI指数为50.1%，比3月下降了0.2个百 分点，但还在扩张区间。这些数据也表明，二季度"适时降准降息"的时机已经成熟，落地时间可能会提前。 二、人民币开始升值了，美元兑人民币已经突破了7.2关口了。 在岸人民币汇率因为假期没交易，但一般来说它会比离岸人民币更强，所以明天开盘肯定会有上涨。人民币升值对中国资产来说是个好消息，短期内对市场 刺激作用会很明显。 一、央行突击降息！央行4月MLF超额续作5000亿元后，市场对二季度降息30BP的预期升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the funding rate is expected to continue to approach the policy rate. The probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second quarter is relatively high, but the specific timing needs to be observed based on the overall rhythm of the package of policies. The reserve requirement ratio cut in Q2 has a high probability of implementation, and the central bank is likely to cut interest rates in Q2. The funding rate in May still has room to decline further [2][3]. - Although the market's reaction to the statement of "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" has significantly dulled, considering the current policy focus and the impact of trade frictions on the fundamentals, reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are still expected to be implemented within the second quarter [3]. - The increase in MLF volume in April is likely not to replace reserve requirement ratio cuts but rather to extend the maturity of medium - term liquidity injection. The necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts has increased as the long - term liquidity released by the September 2024 reserve requirement ratio cut has been basically exhausted [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 March: Counter - seasonal Decline in Excess Reserve Ratio, but Increased Bank Lending Kept the Funding Market Stable - In March, the excess reserve ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 1.0%. The main reason was the significant decline in the central bank's claims on other depository corporations, which was much higher than the net withdrawal through OMO and the decline in other depository corporations' liabilities to the central bank [6]. - Although the excess reserve ratio decreased in March, the central bank may have supported banks implicitly to stabilize the funding market, as the bank's net lending increased significantly, and the funding rate center decreased compared to February. However, the funding gap index was relatively high, and the central bank's desired funding rate was still higher than the policy rate [8]. - In March, the increase in required reserves due to high credit growth and a significant decline in non - bank deposits, the decrease in government deposits, cash inflows, and the decline in foreign exchange holdings were all within the expected range. The use progress of special bonds was relatively fast, but the expenditure rhythm of replacement bonds was slightly lower than expected [10]. 3.2 April: Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts Did Not Materialize, but Increased Bank Lending Continued to Push Down the Funding Rate Center - In April, the general fiscal deficit was expected to be at a neutral level in recent years. The government bond supply pressure was higher than in previous years, but the expenditure of replacement bonds might lead to additional government deposit injections. The government deposits were expected to increase slightly by about 10 billion yuan, and the consumption of excess reserves was significantly weaker than in previous years [12]. - Credit issuance in April was expected to be weak, and the required reserve scale might decrease by 30 billion yuan, which would supplement liquidity. The currency issuance was expected to decrease by about 100 billion yuan, and foreign exchange holdings might continue to withdraw about 50 billion yuan [12]. - The central bank's net injection of pledged reverse repurchase in April was 320.8 billion yuan, MLF was over - renewed by 500 billion yuan, but the net withdrawal of outright reverse repurchase was 500 billion yuan. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations were expected to increase by about 320 billion yuan month - on - month. The excess reserve ratio in April was expected to increase by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1%, but it was still at a relatively low level in non - quarter - end months [12][13]. - The reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts did not materialize in April. The central bank might wait due to the need to coordinate with a package of policies. However, due to increased fundamental uncertainties, the central bank might support banks implicitly, pushing up bank net lending and making the funding rate approach the policy rate. The gap between R and DR reached the lowest level since May 2024 [31][32]. - The cross - month progress of various institutions in April was generally fast, at a relatively high level in the past five years, which kept the month - end liquidity relatively stable [34]. 3.3 May: Increased Government Bond Supply Pressure, and the Excess Reserve Ratio May Decline Again - In May, although the general fiscal deficit was expected to be at a relatively high level in recent years, and the expenditure of replacement bonds might lead to additional government deposit injections, the government bond supply pressure was significantly higher than in previous years. The government deposits were expected to increase by about 360 billion yuan [39]. - The required reserve in May was expected to increase seasonally, withdrawing about 30 billion yuan. The currency issuance was expected to decrease by about 100 billion yuan, supplementing the funding market. Foreign exchange holdings might continue to withdraw about 50 billion yuan [39]. - In the open market, the balance of pledged reverse repurchase at the end of May was assumed to drop to about 1 trillion yuan, with a net withdrawal of about 620 billion yuan. However, considering the significant increase in government bond net supply pressure, the central bank might use MLF and outright reverse repurchase to release medium - and long - term liquidity. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations were expected to decrease by about 140 billion yuan month - on - month. The excess reserve ratio in May was expected to be about 1.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from April, at a historically low level [39]. - The Politburo meeting in April mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" again. Although the market's reaction was dull, considering the current policy focus and the impact of trade frictions, reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were still expected to be implemented within the second quarter, but the specific timing needed to be observed [52]. - The increase in MLF volume in April was likely not to replace reserve requirement ratio cuts but to extend the maturity of medium - term liquidity injection. The necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts has increased as the long - term liquidity released by the September 2024 reserve requirement ratio cut has been basically exhausted [53][56]. - Due to the increased unexpected changes in excess reserves and bank lending in recent years, the actual impact of reserve requirement ratio cuts has decreased. The central bank's attitude towards the funding market and policy rates may be more important. The central bank is likely to cut interest rates in Q2, but DR007 needs to return close to the policy rate first. Although the DR007 rate center may not directly drop to around 1.5% in May, the funding rate still has room to decline [59].

Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing while the service sector remains in expansion, suggesting potential policy adjustments in response to economic conditions [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical threshold [1][2]. - Production and new orders indices are at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing declines of 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production and market demand [2]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point drop, demonstrating resilience and strong support from market demand and policy [3]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to external economic changes, particularly the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S., and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease following the peak in March [2][3]. Service Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates expansion [4]. - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, with seasonal factors contributing to this change [5]. - The construction PMI is reported at 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment, although civil engineering activity shows a significant increase, indicating potential for future growth [5]. Economic Outlook - The expectation is that domestic demand will counterbalance the slowdown in external demand, becoming a key support for manufacturing sector performance [6]. - There is a prediction that the manufacturing PMI may remain in the contraction zone in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to increased policy support [7]. - The likelihood of policy rate cuts is increasing as the manufacturing PMI remains in contraction for two consecutive months, with expectations for timely adjustments in monetary policy [1][7].