Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's recent shift in tone indicates a more flexible approach to monetary policy, with a focus on core inflation and employment data rather than solely on labor market weakness [1][3] - The market has recalibrated expectations for interest rate cuts, with futures pricing in two cuts this year, while the ten-year U.S. Treasury yield has decreased by nearly 30 basis points from its peak [3][4] - Financial stocks face a dual challenge: narrowing net interest margins but potentially benefiting from improved credit conditions that could lower default rates [3][4] Group 2 - Growth companies can take advantage of the current interest rate environment to secure long-term financing and reduce capital costs [4] - Manufacturing export firms need to be cautious of fluctuating currency rates due to ongoing tariff negotiations, which could offset the benefits of lower financing costs from potential rate cuts [4] - Companies with strong cash flows and high sensitivity to interest rates are likely to be the primary beneficiaries of a potential rate cut, as they can leverage consumer resilience and manage inventory effectively [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake [1] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have shown a significant rebound, with gold rising over $110 in just two trading days, indicating a volatile market environment [3][5] - The current market dynamics suggest that gold's upward movement may face resistance around the $3320-$3325 range, with potential for further increases if this level is breached [3][7] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the recent surge in gold prices is linked to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and upcoming economic data releases, particularly the non-farm payrolls [5][7] - The dollar index has been on a downward trend, which may continue to influence gold prices, with a focus on the $96.5 level as a critical support area [5][7] - Short-term trading strategies are recommended, with support at the $3320 level and resistance around $3355, suggesting a range-bound trading approach [7][8]

Group 1 - Gold prices are stabilizing after two days of rebound, hovering below a one-week high, influenced by a slight recovery in the dollar and improved market risk appetite, but limited by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and trade uncertainties [1] - The international gold market shows a bullish sentiment with a long upper shadow in the monthly candlestick, indicating significant selling pressure above, while the market is closely watching for U.S. data and comments from President Trump regarding rate cuts [2] - Short-term resistance for gold is identified in the 3355-3360 range, with potential upward targets of 3375-3380 and 3400, while support is seen at the 3315 level, below which further declines could occur [4] Group 2 - The domestic gold market, including Shanghai gold and other products, has seen a recent increase, with significant profits noted from previous bottom-buying strategies, although a temporary pullback is expected [4] - Support levels for Shanghai gold are around 775, while for other products, it is at 766, with expectations of continued upward movement after the current adjustment phase [4] - The overall bullish trend remains intact, with targets set at 795 for Shanghai gold and 790 for other products, indicating a need for patience among investors [4]

Market Overview - The financial markets experienced significant volatility in the first half of the year due to rapidly changing trade dynamics under President Trump, concerns over a potential economic recession, and worries about the expanding deficit threatening the U.S. safe-haven status [1] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar recorded its longest monthly decline since 2017 in June, with a year-to-date drop of approximately 10.8%, marking the worst first half since 1973 [3] - The euro appreciated by about 3.8% in June, with a cumulative increase of 13.8% in the first half, driven by concerns over tariffs impacting the economy and a weaker dollar [6] - The British pound saw a nearly 10% increase against the dollar in the first half, supported by a pause in interest rate cuts by the Bank of England and improving economic outlook [6] Gold Market - Gold prices rose by 25.8% in the first half of the year, with gold ETFs increasing by 25.9%, driven by geopolitical tensions and trade disputes boosting safe-haven demand [7] - Silver prices also surged, with a 24.9% increase in the first half, supported by both safe-haven and industrial demand [7] Oil Market - Crude oil prices experienced significant fluctuations, with an overall decline of about 9.6% in the first half, impacted by trade tensions and oversupply concerns from OPEC+ [9] - In June, oil prices briefly spiked to $80 due to tensions in the Middle East but quickly retreated as the situation stabilized [9] Equity Market - By the end of June, U.S. stock markets reached historical highs, driven by expectations of a trade agreement and renewed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [11] - The S&P 500 index surpassed the 6200-point mark, reflecting a 25% increase from its April low, primarily fueled by strong performance in technology stocks [11] Market Resilience - Despite geopolitical shocks and trade uncertainties, the market demonstrated remarkable adaptability and resilience, attributed to stable economic and profit conditions [13] - Investors are advised to maintain diversified portfolios to navigate the high uncertainty period ahead of the upcoming earnings season [13]

2025年上半年，地缘风险和贸易摩擦升级为推升金银重心上移的两条主线。贵金属领涨整个大宗商品市 场，内外盘金银齐齐创下历史新高。 黄金价格经历先扬后抑走势，特朗普政策不确定性及高关税触发滞胀恐慌推动金价创历史新高， COMEX黄金3509.9美元/盎司，沪金836.30元/克，核心受三重驱动——关税放大避险属性、降息预期主 导波动节奏、中东冲突叠加央行持续购金提供支撑；白银表现更为亮眼，COMEX白银突破37美元创十 三年新高，沪银触及9075元/千克峰值，地缘风险、光伏装机激增及金银比修复形成三重引擎，叠加 1.17亿盎司供应缺口预期，驱动白银从"黄金影子"升级为"工业刚性+金融弹性"双核资产。铂族金属表现 更为亮眼，铂金一度冲高至1440.5美元/盎司，创10年来新高。 2025年下半年，贵金属市场或呈现"短期震荡、中长期向好"的格局。美联储年内仍有两次降息的空间， 随着政策节奏逐渐明朗，贵金属或从"预期博弈"过渡至"实际兑现"阶段，价格中枢有望上移。地缘政治 风险的延续性不容忽视，中东等区域局势的不确定性、全球范围内的政治博弈与贸易政策波动，将持续 推升市场避险情绪，强化贵金属的避险属性。 从品种分化来 ...

7月2日国内黄金市场动态：品牌金店首饰金价整体持稳，部分金店金价继续上涨。具体来看，老凤祥黄 金今日又涨7元/克，报价1006元/克，成为新的最高价金店。上海中国黄金不涨不跌，报价956元/克，为 最低价金店。今日品牌金店价差50元/克（1006元/克-956元/克），价差再次拉大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览（2025年7月2日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 757.30 | 元/克 | | 菜百黄金 | 752.90 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 751.60 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 755.00 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 760.50 | 元/克 | 说完首饰黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 昨日现货黄金盘中一路上行，最高涨至了3257.78美元/盎司，最终收报3338.17美元/盎司，涨幅1.07%。 今日金价暂时震荡，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3338.96美元/盎司，涨幅0.02%。 昨日金价大幅回升，主要是美国参议院通过了特朗普的"大而美"减税与支出法 ...

| H 等 市 路 参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 短期来看,在情绪和流动性的驱动下偏强震荡的概率较高,后续 | | | 关注宏观增量信息对股指方向的指引。 | 资产带和弱经济利好情期。但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债) | | | | | 空间。 | 宏观金融 | 市场不确定性再起,金价企稳反弹。 | 看多 | 真金 | | | 宏观和商品属性或仍对银价有支撑。但基本面或仍会限制其空间 | 白银 | 近期市场风险偏好回升,叠加海外美铜及伦铜挤仓行情发酵,短 | | | | | 看头 | 국미 | 期铜价偏强。 | 近期市场情绪有所好转,叠加电解铝库存低位运行,铝价偏强运 | | | | TT. | 美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回归,商品价格上行,氧化。 | 氧化铝 | 看多 | | | | 铝短期偏强。 | 火烧云投产,预计9月底出锭,此外全球第五大炼厂罢工仅影响生 | | | | | | 产3天,对供应影响有限,短期锌受消息影响下跌。此外铜价大涨 | ...

Group 1 - Bond traders have rapidly built long positions in U.S. Treasuries, betting that the upcoming employment report will provide further momentum for the market [1] - The June non-farm payroll report is seen as a significant risk event for long investors, especially after the JOLTS job openings report showed a surprising increase in May, leading to a sell-off in the bond market [1] - Citigroup strategist David Bieber noted that the continued accumulation of long positions has reached a "highly extended" state, indicating potential for a significant pullback if employment data is strong [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan's recent survey indicated that absolute long positions in U.S. Treasuries have risen to the highest level in two weeks, with net long positions increasing by two percentage points [2] - There has been a shift towards bullish options in the Treasury market, with traders willing to pay premiums to hedge against significant price increases rather than declines [2] - Columbia Threadneedle Investment's global rates strategist mentioned that if employment data exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate cut in July could drop to zero [2]

美元崩跌，本周非农有多刺激？1-6月，美元跌幅令人震惊：2025年上半年，美元累跌高达10.8%，创下 1973年自由浮动货币时代以来最差的上半年表现！避险消退，美元崩盘，黄金多头重回3300，周四，提 前一天出炉的6月非农，无疑将成为点燃黄金市场又一轮风暴的导火索。 ·美元霸权松动 ·全球央行疯狂购金 ·美联储政策成迷 6月非农，黄金投资关键战役来临。无论数据如何，皇御贵金属都为您备好： 7月3日19:30-21:00，皇御贵金属《非农交易现场》， 资深分析师实盘解析非农布局攻略，掌控交易先机。 近期美国就业相关数据错综复杂。上周，美国初请录得23.6万人，低于市场预期的24.5万人，前值也从 24.5万人修正为24.6万人，6月的四周初请，均值稳定在24.5万。但初请保持韧性下滑之际，对比发现， 美国5月挑战者企业裁员人数高达93816人，比前值4月减少12%，但与去年同期相比却激增47%，企业 裁员压力警钟敲响，就业市场蒙上阴影。 当下市场对6月非农普遍较为悲观。机构预计，美国6月新增非农就业人数将从上月的13.9万人降至12 万，失业率也可能攀升至4.3%。富国银行更甚，预计6月非农将进一步放缓至11 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a hawkish stance, leading to a significant depreciation of the USD/CHF exchange rate, reaching a 14-year low [1] - Weak economic data from the US, including declines in personal consumption and income, raises concerns for the Federal Reserve, complicating its inflation outlook [3] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, up from 70% a week prior [3] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank's recent comments suggest a potential for maintaining negative interest rates, despite having lowered the policy rate to 0% for the sixth consecutive time [4] - The KOF leading indicator for Switzerland dropped to 96.1 in June, significantly below both May's 98.6 and market expectations of 99.3, indicating ongoing economic weakness [4] - The SNB's cautious outlook on global trade and a projected GDP growth of only 1%-1.5% for Switzerland this year provide support for the Swiss franc amidst rising geopolitical tensions and increased market uncertainty [4]