美联储12月货币政策会议纪要 公布。 当地时间 12月30日（周二），美国股市三大股指 表现比较平淡 ， 并 均录得三连跌 。 美联储披露的12月货币政策会议纪要显示内部的分歧明显，在该纪要发布后，交易员维持美联储2026年内 两次降息押注。 贵金属走势分化 美股三大指数连续3个交易日下跌 当地时间12月30日（周二），美国股市三大股指小幅收跌，其中道琼斯工业指数跌0.2%，报48367.06点； 标准普尔500指数跌0.14%，报6896.24点；纳斯达克指数跌0.24%，报23419.08点。值得注意的是，上述 三大股指均录得三连跌。 美股市场大型科技股涨跌互现。具体个股方面，特斯拉跌超1%，英伟达、苹果跌幅不足1%，Meta涨超 1%，亚马逊、微软、谷歌微涨。 银行股全线走低，拖累指数表现，不过普遍跌幅不大。其中，高盛、花旗集团跌近1%，摩根大通、摩根士 丹利、美国银行、富国银行等微跌。 能源股集体上涨，西方石油涨超2%，斯伦贝谢、康菲石油涨逾1%，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙涨幅不足1%。 芯片股涨跌不一，费城半导体指数跌0.13%。具体芯片个股方面，英特尔、迈威尔科技涨超1%，科天半导 体、拉姆研究、应用材料 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Today, treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Currently, treasury bond futures are in a stage where both upward and downward driving forces are limited. On one hand, the medium - to long - term monetary policy tends to be loose, and there is still an expectation of a policy interest rate cut, providing strong support for treasury bond futures. On the other hand, the central bank's pace of interest rate cuts will likely maintain strong determination, the short - term rebound momentum driven by interest rate cut expectations is limited, and the supply pressure from the intensive issuance of treasury bonds in the first quarter of next year restricts the upward height of treasury bonds. Overall, treasury bond futures face pressure above and support below, and are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Industry News and Related Charts - On December 30, the People's Bank of China conducted 31.25 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tendered method, with a winning bid rate of 1.4%. There were 5.93 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the open market today, resulting in a net investment of 25.32 billion yuan [6]

Macroeconomic Overview - The actual GDP growth in the US for Q3 2025 significantly exceeded expectations, driven by resilient consumer spending and a reduction in imports, with an annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of 4.3%, surpassing the expected 3.3% and the previous 3.8% [1][11] - In October, US durable goods orders were weaker than expected, with a month-on-month decline of 2.2%, below the forecast of -1.5% and the previous increase of 0.7% [1][12] Major Index Performance - For the week of December 22-26, the S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 0.27%, the Nasdaq 100 Index increased by 1.18%, and the S&P 500 Index gained 1.40%, with 10 out of 11 sectors in the S&P 500 showing gains [1][13] - The S&P 500 Materials sector led with a rise of 2.38%, while the S&P 500 Consumer Staples sector saw a slight decline of 0.10% [1][13] Investment Direction - Following the strong GDP growth in Q3, expectations for interest rate cuts decreased, leading to a rebound in US stocks, while gold reached a historical high [1][15] - Despite high valuations in the US stock market, liquidity expansion and profit recovery are expected to provide support [1][15] ETF Products - The Bosera S&P 500 ETF (513500) is designed to track the US S&P 500 Index, providing a low-cost investment tool for domestic investors to capture growth in US stocks [1][15] - The Bosera Nasdaq 100 ETF (513390) tracks the Nasdaq 100 Index, with a significant focus on the information technology sector, which constitutes 57.87% of the index [1][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral strategy is cautiously bullish, and the arbitrage strategy is neutral [6] Core View - Social inventory continues to decline, spot premium performs well, and the premium in East China has increased significantly. The domestic zinc smelting loss has expanded, and the supply pressure has decreased. The fundamental data is still bullish, and the current zinc valuation is low. There is optimism about future consumption, the expectation of interest rate cuts remains unchanged, and re - inflation has not yet been reflected [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$28.26 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,440 yuan per ton, with a premium of 130 yuan per ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,380 yuan per ton, with a premium of -5 yuan per ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,340 yuan per ton, with a premium of 0 yuan per ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 29, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 23,105 yuan per ton and closed at 23,255 yuan per ton. The trading volume was 242,907 lots, and the open interest was 93,687 lots. The highest price was 23,470 yuan per ton, and the lowest was 23,000 yuan per ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 29, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 111,900 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 106,550 tons, a decrease of 325 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Social inventory is declining, and the spot premium is strong, especially in East China. Downstream buyers are purchasing on a need - to - basis due to high prices, and market trading is sluggish. The import window for zinc ore has opened, and the enthusiasm for zinc ore procurement has decreased. The zinc ingot export window is closed. The comprehensive smelting loss of domestic smelters has expanded, and supply pressure has decreased [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bullish [6] - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [6]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 30 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) | | | 表1：国债期货12月29日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 112.850 | 112.880 | 111.820 | 111.640 | -1.030 | -0.91 | 142925 | 143389 | -1188 | | TL2606 | 113.070 | 113.150 | 112.040 | 111.850 | -1.030 | -0.91 | 13828 | 24965 | 607 | | TL2609 | 112.850 | 112.950 | 111.830 | 111 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp decline of Shanghai Silver in the afternoon of December 29, 2025, was the result of the resonance of macro - expectation reversal, concentrated speculation exit, and technical breakdown. Although short - term fluctuations have increased, the medium - term logic has not been completely broken [3]. - For A - shares, except for the Shanghai Composite Index's 9 - day consecutive positive trend, the other indexes showed high - level oscillations. The Shanghai Stock Index is expected to have limited adjustment, and low - buying is recommended if it doesn't effectively break below the 3910 - 3920 support range [5][6]. - Due to the continuous short - squeeze in silver and increased market volatility, caution is advised when participating in the gold market [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Shanghai Silver - **Reasons for decline**: The probability of a US interest rate cut in January dropped to about 15%, increasing the opportunity cost of non - interest - bearing silver; there was a rush to take profits, with significant net capital outflows; geopolitical risk - aversion receded; and policy and delivery factors influenced the market [3]. - **Operation suggestions**: In the short term, focus on the 17,000 yuan/kg support. If it rebounds quickly, observe capital inflows and the recovery of the 19,000 integer mark. In the medium term, due to the tight supply and low inventory, one should not take a unilateral short position. It is recommended to control positions strictly, set stop - losses, and focus on short - term operations [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - The market showed a significant decline, dragging down the entire index. Technically, the daily - line upward trend is intact, while small - cycle adjustments are occurring, with limited expected adjustment intensity. Low - buying is recommended if the Shanghai Stock Index does not effectively break below the 3910 - 3920 support range [5]. 3.3 Gold - Due to the continuous short - squeeze in silver and increased market fluctuations, caution is advised when participating in the gold market [9]. 3.4 Iron Ore - With the commissioning of the Simandou project, the expectation of a supply surplus is intensifying. On the demand side, except for exports, the real estate and infrastructure sectors are still in the process of bottom - seeking, with weak domestic demand support. Technically, a wide - range oscillation approach is recommended, with high - selling and low - buying [11][12]. 3.5 Glass - Technically, there are signs of bottom - stabilization recently, and bottom - fishing buying can be considered. The daily melting volume has been slightly decreasing, and inventory has accumulated this week, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and supply - side clearance policies [15][16]. 3.6 Methanol - As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1.4125 million tons, an increase of 193,700 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, while that in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. The market in the sales area is relatively strong under multiple positive factors [17]. 3.7 Pulp - As of December 25, 2025, the inventory of mainstream ports of Chinese pulp was 1.906 million tons, a decrease of 87,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 4.4%. The inventory has been decreasing for five consecutive weeks, and the market is expected to be in an oscillating state [20].

Core Viewpoint - Silver experienced extreme volatility on December 29, reaching a historical high of $83.971 per ounce before plummeting to a low of $74.215, resulting in a daily fluctuation of 12.3% [1]. Despite this, silver has shown an impressive year-to-date increase of over 160%, significantly outperforming gold's approximately 70% rise [1][2]. Price Movements - On December 29, London silver was reported at $75.177, down 5.23% for the day, while year-to-date it has increased by 160.25% [2]. COMEX silver also saw significant fluctuations, peaking at $82.67 and dropping to $73.71 [3]. Shanghai silver futures experienced a 10% rise before closing with only a 0.51% gain [3]. Market Dynamics - The volatility in silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a recent increase in margin requirements by the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which raised trading costs and prompted profit-taking among investors [3]. Analysts noted that the significant price movements were driven by a supply-demand imbalance, with strong physical silver demand leading to panic buying [4][5]. Supply and Demand Factors - The silver market is facing a structural supply issue, as production has not kept pace with demand, leading to a situation where demand has exceeded supply for five consecutive years [5]. Concerns about potential tariffs on silver and the depletion of inventories in major trading centers like London have further exacerbated the situation [5]. Future Outlook - Analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects for silver, citing factors such as anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and increasing industrial demand for silver [4][5]. However, short-term risks are accumulating, with indications of market overheating and potential profit-taking ahead of the New Year [6][7]. The upcoming risk events in January, including Federal Reserve decisions and tariff investigations, could significantly impact market sentiment [7].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the unprecedented surge in gold and silver prices, with silver experiencing a particularly dramatic increase due to various market factors [1][3][30] - On December 22, the international gold price broke through 997 yuan per gram, reaching a historical high, and stabilized around 1000 yuan per gram by December 29 [1][2] - Silver prices saw a significant increase, with a 36.59% rise over 23 trading days from November 21 to December 23, and reaching 17.1 yuan per gram by December 29 [3][4] Group 2 - The cumulative increase in international gold prices this year is approximately 70%, while silver has exceeded 170%, significantly outperforming gold [4] - The surge in gold and silver prices is attributed to a weakening dollar and expectations of continued interest rate cuts, leading to a more accommodative global monetary environment [6][7][8] - The decline in interest rates reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold and silver, making them more attractive compared to cash [10][11] Group 3 - Domestic capital inflows have intensified, driven by a stagnant A-share market, prompting investors to seek certainty in gold and silver as safe-haven assets [14] - The global geopolitical landscape, including tensions in various regions, has heightened risk aversion, further driving investment into gold and silver [15][16] Group 4 - The industrial demand for silver is surging, particularly in emerging sectors like photovoltaics and electric vehicles, while supply is constrained, leading to a structural shortage [19][22][23] - By 2025, the global silver supply is projected to face a significant shortfall of approximately 3600 tons, the largest in recent years [24] Group 5 - Recent policy changes in India allowing citizens to use silver as collateral for loans have led to a surge in silver imports, further driving up prices [27][28] - The tightness in the London silver market has created upward pressure on prices, as short positions face significant delivery challenges [29]

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Group 1 - Recent silver price volatility has shown characteristics similar to Bitcoin, influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts and changes in industrial demand [1][2] - Silver experienced extreme volatility over the weekend, with rapid price increases and decreases indicating heightened speculative activity and investor sentiment fluctuations [1][2] - On Sunday, silver prices reached approximately $84, while gold prices rose to about $4530, reflecting significant market sensitivity to interest rate changes and the dollar's performance [3][4] Group 2 - The volatility in silver prices was particularly pronounced within a short time frame, with a 6% increase to $83.75 within 20 minutes, followed by a drop to $75.15, representing a loss of about 10% [3][4] - The anticipated appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair in 2026 is expected to lead to substantial interest rate cuts, which could drive more funds into the precious metals market [4] - Silver's industrial demand remains robust, with applications in electronics, photovoltaic devices, and medical equipment, providing a solid fundamental support for its price [4]