注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示 未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不 构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相 匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 中长期看，黄金价格中枢仍有望上行，投资者或可考虑后续回调参与、逢低分批布局。关注直接投资实 物黄金，免征增值税的黄金基金ETF（518800），覆盖黄金全产业链股票的黄金股票ETF（517400）。 平安证券指出，降息预期偏强推动金价震荡走高，短期来看，金价受预期不明朗影响或维持较强震荡； 长期来看，美国债务问题未解导致美元信用持续走弱，叠加央行购金及投资需求增长，黄金货币属性加 速凸显，贵金属价格重心或继续上移。海外宏观不确定性持续，中期黄金避险属性仍处于放大阶段，尤 其特朗普上任后美元信用弱化主线逻辑愈加清晰，持续看好黄金中长期走势。 ...

美联储关注的通胀指标核心PCE价格符合预估，巩固本周降息预期。万科寻求推迟兑付另一支本月到期 的境内债券，显示流动性压力与日剧增。中国周一将公布11月贸易数据，非美市场需求料推动出口恢复 增长。 本周将迎来美联储利率决策，连续第三次降息25个基点几无悬念。彭博调查显示，经济学家预计美联储 从明年3月起还将再降息两次。 【基本面消息】 数据显示，12月8日上海黄金现货价格报价952.20元/克，相较于期货主力价格（958.70元/克）贴水6.5 元/克。 【黄金期货最新行情】 【机构观点】 | 12月8日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 958.70 | 0.15% | 298231 | 197193 | 金瑞期货：上一个交易日贵金属价涨跌不一，COMEX黄金期货跌0.36%报4227.7美元/盎司，COMEX白 银期货涨2.28%报58.8美元/盎司。近期公布的经济数据指向降息会继续，叠加多位联储官员发声支持12 月降息，市场预期再度转鸽，风险偏好回升利好金银。白银方面，目前现货紧张 ...

Group 1 - The three major U.S. stock indices closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.45%, the Nasdaq down 0.14%, and the S&P 500 down 0.35% due to cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting [1] - Tesla's stock fell over 3% following a downgrade in ratings, while Marvell Technology dropped nearly 7% after losing an AI chip order from Amazon [1] - The semiconductor industry showed strong performance, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rising 1.1%, Micron Technology up over 4%, and other companies like AEM, ON Semiconductor, Broadcom, and TSMC increasing by more than 2% [1] Group 2 - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw a slight increase of 0.08%, with Baidu and Miniso rising over 3%, while XPeng Motors, New Oriental, and JinkoSolar gained over 2%, and NetEase fell over 2% [1] - International gold prices faced pressure, with spot gold dropping below $4200 per ounce [1] - Market focus is on the Federal Reserve's December interest rate decision, with the probability of a rate cut rising to 87.3%. A dovish signal could alleviate liquidity concerns and impact technology stock valuations and policy paths [1]

隔夜美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌幅0.45%，纳指与标普500指数分别下跌0.14%和0.35%。受美联储 议息会议前观望情绪影响，科技股走势分化，特斯拉因评级下调跌超3%，迈威尔科技因丢失亚马逊AI 芯片订单重挫近7%。 相关ETF： 全球科技龙头：纳斯达克ETF（513300）； 美股核心宽基：标普ETF（159655）。 芯片产业表现活跃，费城半导体指数涨1.1%，美光科技涨超4%，艾马克技术、安森美半导体涨超3%， 博通、台积电等涨超2%。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数微涨0.08%，百度、名创优品涨超3%，小鹏汽车、新东方、晶科能源涨超2%， 网易跌超2%。国际金价承压，现货黄金跌破4200美元/盎司。 短期焦点集中于美联储12月利率决议，市场降息预期概率升至87.3%。若释放鸽派信号或缓解流动性担 忧，关注科技股估值与政策路径分歧。 ...

2025年12月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：降息预期回升 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 2 | | 铜：海外库存增加，或限制价格涨幅 | 4 | | 锌：偏强震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格震荡 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：承压运行 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：暂未逃离震荡区间 | 13 | | 钯：技术面维度底部抬升明显 | 13 | | 镍：结构性过剩转变，博弈矛盾并未改变 | 15 | | 不锈钢：供需延续双弱运行，成本支撑逻辑增强 | 15 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 9 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 黄金：降息预期回升 白银：震荡回落 业 服 务 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium term, positive macro expectations and concerns about supply disruptions are pushing up prices, but the lack of full recovery in real consumption may limit price increases. Also, beware of price adjustments after the Fed's possible December rate cut. Consider low - buying opportunities for copper, aluminum, and tin. - In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions for copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so their prices are expected to rise [3]. 3. Summary by Variety Copper - **Viewpoint**: Supply has a contraction expectation, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4][8]. - **Analysis**: Codelco is raising the premium for refined copper supplied to Chinese customers in 2026. CSPT will reduce copper production capacity by over 10% in 2026. In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased. On December 8, the average premium of 1 electrolytic copper spot decreased. As of December 8, copper inventory increased [8][9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure [4][11]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, alumina prices in various regions declined, and the alumina warehouse receipt decreased. High - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and the domestic market is in a strong inventory - building trend. The current large gap between futures and spot prices may lead to the spot price following the decline of the futures price [11][12]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: Inventory continues to decline, and aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [4][13]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum decreased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased in some regions. In November 2025, China's un - wrought aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year. An Indonesian aluminum plant will start trial operation in mid - December [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Warehouse receipts continue to increase, and the market fluctuates at a high level [4][15]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the price of some aluminum alloy products decreased. The import of scrap aluminum in October increased year - on - year. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and some alloy plants face production cut risks. Demand has a marginal improvement, and social inventory decreases slightly while warehouse receipt inventory increases [15][16]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: Social inventory has decreased, and zinc prices will have a short - term rebound [4][18]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the premium of 0 zinc in different regions varied. As of December 8, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. A zinc mine in Australia postponed high - grade zinc ore mining. The expectation of a Fed rate cut in December has increased, zinc ore supply is tight in the short term, and the domestic zinc export window is open [18]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Social inventory is decreasing, and lead prices may continue to rebound [4][19]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots increased slightly. The inventory of lead ingots in the social warehouse decreased, but the decrease may slow down. The profit of secondary lead smelting is high, and the production of lead - acid battery factories is at a high level [19][20]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: The non - ferrous metal market is generally strong, and nickel prices fluctuate accordingly [4][21]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, LME nickel inventory increased, and Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased. Recently, there have been transactions of domestic and Indonesian high - nickel pig iron. The market sentiment dominates the market, and the overall supply of nickel - related products is relatively loose [21]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: The transaction price of nickel - iron has bottomed out and rebounded, and the stainless - steel market fluctuates [4][23]. - **Analysis**: The stainless - steel warehouse receipt decreased slightly. Recently, there have been transactions of domestic and Indonesian high - nickel pig iron. In November, stainless - steel production decreased slightly, and in December, it may decline further. Social inventory has not increased significantly, but there is still inventory pressure [23][24]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Supply concerns continue, and tin prices fluctuate strongly at a high level [4][24]. - **Analysis**: On December 8, LME tin warehouse receipts decreased, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased. The spot price of tin decreased slightly. The复产 of a mine in Wa State is slow, Indonesian tin exports are restricted, and African tin production is affected. The supply of tin concentrate is tight, and demand from semiconductor, photovoltaic, and new - energy vehicle industries is increasing [24][26]. 4. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On December 8, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2267.05, down 0.18%; the commodity 20 index was 2588.87, down 0.37%; the industrial product index was 2216.09, down 0.16% [154]. - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On December 8, 2025, the non - ferrous metal index was 2576.49, with a daily increase of 0.17%, a 5 - day increase of 2.55%, a 1 - month increase of 3.58%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.62% [156].

衡量美元对六种主要货币的美元指数当天上涨0.1%，在汇市尾市收于99.087。 虽然金价可能在短期内受到部分利空情绪的压制，但市场对中长期市场仍旧看好。Zaner Metals副总裁 兼高级金属策略师Peter Grant表示，市场正在等待美联储的决定和更多政策指引。随着基本面依然强 劲，且央行继续购买，黄金仍然具有吸引力。预计到2026年第一季度，金价有望达到每盎司5000美元。 转自：新华财经 新华财经北京12月9日电（郭洲洋）纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2026年2月黄金期价8日 下跌23.1美元，收于每盎司4219.9美元，跌幅为0.54%。 美国银行全球研究部当日发布的报告预计，美联储在10日结束的议息会议上预计将降息25个基点，美联 储货币政策声明的远期展望将转向鹰派。 降息预期已被市场消化，而偏鹰的表态令市场预计美联储将提高进一步降息的门槛。 据CME"美联储观察"最新数据显示，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为89.4%，维持利率不变的概率为 10.6%。美联储到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为68.5%，维持利率不变的概率为7.8%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为23.8%。 贺利 ...

12月9日凌晨，美股市场盘中波动剧烈，最终三大指数集体收跌，市场在美联储货币政策会议前夕情绪 谨慎。 截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌0.45%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌0.14%，标准普尔500指数下跌 0.35%。个股表现分化明显，特斯拉跌幅超过3%，谷歌跌幅超过2%；博通涨幅超过2%，英伟达和微软 涨幅均超过1%。纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.08%，热门中概股涨跌不一，百度、名创优品涨幅超过 3%，小鹏汽车、新东方涨幅超过2%，网易跌幅超过2%。 市场如此表现，与美联储即将召开的货币政策会议密切相关。美联储从本周二开始召开货币政策会议， 周三将公布会议结果，这是美联储今年的最后一次会议，美联储主席鲍威尔将在会后召开新闻发布会。 近期，交易员对美联储在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）会议上降息的预期不断升温。不过，有消息 称，交易员预计美联储2026年年底之前的降息空间不足75个基点。 根据CME"美联储观察"的数据，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为89.4%，维持利率不变的概率为 10.6%；到明年1月累计降息25个基点的概率为68.5%，维持利率不变的概率为7.8%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为23.8% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market as a whole rose 0.97% last week, with precious metals leading the gain at 3.43%, non - ferrous and black metals rising 2.37% and 0.78% respectively, while agricultural products and energy - chemicals declined 0.32% and 1.08% respectively. The short - term commodity market may fluctuate as the expectation of interest rate cuts has been basically priced in [2][6]. - The short - term precious metals sector may experience high - level fluctuations, the non - ferrous sector may operate stably, the black sector may fluctuate weakly, the energy sector's price center has a downward pressure, the chemical sector may adjust with fluctuations, and the agricultural products and oilseeds sector may fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market Performance**: The overall commodity market rose 0.97% last week. Precious metals led the gain at 3.43%, non - ferrous metals rose 2.37%, black metals rose 0.78%, while agricultural products and energy - chemicals fell 0.32% and 1.08% respectively [2][6]. - **Top - performing and Bottom - performing Varieties**: The top - performing varieties were silver, copper, and pulp, with increases of 7.54%, 6.12%, and 4.85% respectively; the bottom - performing varieties were glass, eggs, and ethylene glycol, with decreases of 5.6%, 5.34%, and 4.17% respectively [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to decline, and the volatility - reducing varieties were mainly concentrated in the agricultural products and energy - chemicals sectors [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale increased last week. Only the agricultural products sector had a small net outflow of funds, and most of the inflows were concentrated in the Shanghai copper contract [2][6]. 3.2 Outlook - **General Outlook**: The recent strengthening of the Japanese yen has suppressed the US dollar index. The US core PCE in September was slightly lower than expected, laying a foundation for the Fed to cut interest rates, which is also beneficial to US dollar liquidity. However, the Russia - Ukraine situation has reached a stalemate, bringing uncertainty to the continuous improvement of liquidity. The short - term commodity market may fluctuate [2]. - **Precious Metals**: The weekly initial jobless claims dropped to 191,000, far lower than expected, hitting a new low since September 2022, alleviating market concerns about the sharp deterioration of the labor market. Interest rate cuts have been basically priced in. After silver hit a new high, its upward momentum has slowed down. The short - term sector may experience high - level fluctuations [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The expectation of the US interest rate cut is gradually increasing, and the pressure of the US dollar index on the sector is weakening. The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in December has improved, and the overall macro - environment is neutral to warm. Fundamentally, the inventory continued to decline last week, and the raw material supply remained tight, supporting the sector. However, as the price reached a high level, the support weakened. The short - term sector may operate stably [3]. - **Black Metals**: Last week, the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline, production dropped significantly, and inventory continued to decrease. Steel mills' profits were still poor, and pig iron production continued to fall. There are many maintenance plans for steel mills in December, and pig iron production may further decline in the future. In terms of raw materials, the global iron ore shipment was relatively strong, and the port inventory continued to increase last week; the domestic coking coal supply was relatively stable, but the import volume increased significantly, suppressing coal prices. With the cost moving down, the short - term sector may fluctuate weakly [3]. - **Energy**: Last week, the geopolitical situation further heated up, and the progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan stalled, weakening the market's expectation of restoring Russian oil exports after reaching an agreement. EIA weekly data showed that US crude oil inventories increased, and gasoline inventories increased significantly more than expected. The news boosted oil prices in the short term, and the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut also had a positive impact on oil prices. However, the expanding supply - demand surplus in the fundamentals still determines that the oil price center has a downward pressure [3]. - **Chemicals**: The polyester terminal weaving load continued to decline, and the supply - demand drive of the industrial chain was limited. There was insufficient drive for short - term price increases, and relevant varieties may adjust with fluctuations. For building materials, PVC continued to accumulate inventory, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration was compressed. The pattern of using alkali to supplement chlorine is not expected to last long. It is possible that PVC enterprises will increase maintenance in the future, alleviating the supply pressure; the glass production capacity continued to be compressed, but some glass factories postponed cold - repair plans, and the actual progress needs to be monitored [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: In the new South American season, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans is normal, while the sowing progress of Argentine soybeans is slow due to weather conditions. The domestic soybean meal spot supply remains loose, suppressing prices. The market currently estimates that Malaysian palm oil inventories will continue to increase in November, with high inventory pressure. The short - term oilseeds sector may fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the data verification of the USDA and MPOB reports [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - Most gold ETFs had positive weekly returns, with returns ranging from 0.78% - 0.87%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 23.4263 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.38%, and the total trading volume was 756,101,805, with a growth of 15.76% [39]. - The energy - chemicals ETF had a weekly return of - 0.67%, with a scale of 16.99 billion yuan and a decrease of 3.47% [39]. - The soybean meal ETF had a weekly return of - 0.59%, with a scale of 26.28 billion yuan and an increase of 0.45% [39]. - The non - ferrous metals ETF had a weekly return of 4.30%, with a scale of 30.11 billion yuan and an increase of 8.10% [39]. - The silver fund had a weekly return of 7.33%, with a scale of 43.47 billion yuan and no change in scale [39]. - The total scale of commodity ETFs was 24.5947 billion yuan, with a growth of 0.52%, and the total trading volume was 1,467,321,985, with a growth of 18.70% [39].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing bullish sentiment in the copper market driven by expectations of structural shortages in refined copper for the upcoming year, while gold prices remain relatively stable [2][5]. Copper Market Analysis - Last week, copper prices continued their upward trend, with COMEX copper rising by 3.33% and SHFE copper increasing by 6.12% [4]. - The market anticipates a structural shortage of refined copper next year, which has led to heightened market sentiment and trading activity [6][10]. - The upcoming FOMC meeting may introduce macroeconomic headwinds for copper prices, and a short-term price adjustment could be expected, presenting potential buying opportunities [6][10]. - SHFE copper prices approached 93,000 yuan per ton, but downstream consumption has been somewhat suppressed due to high prices [12]. - COMEX copper inventories have increased significantly, with over 430,000 tons recorded, indicating a potential supply adjustment in the market [12]. Precious Metals Market Analysis - Gold prices fell by 0.67% on COMEX, while silver prices rose by 3% last week, reflecting a divergence in performance [4][29]. - Economic data from the U.S. showed weaker-than-expected results, which, combined with dovish statements from Federal Reserve officials, supported high prices for precious metals [8][29]. - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, which could impact precious metal prices, particularly if hawkish signals emerge [8][29]. - Long-term trends suggest that gold and silver prices remain in an upward trajectory despite short-term fluctuations [8]. Inventory and Positioning - COMEX gold inventories decreased by approximately 50,000 ounces, while silver inventories increased by about 300,000 ounces last week [45]. - The SPDR gold ETF saw an increase in holdings by 4.8 tons, reaching 1,050 tons, indicating a growing interest in gold investments [50]. - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold increased, suggesting a bullish sentiment among traders [50].