瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 螺纹钢市场周报 现货成交清淡 螺纹期价区间波动 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 「 周度要点小结2」 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至12月31日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3122（+4），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3330（+20）。（单位： 元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量上调。184.39（+2.71），同比（-31.91）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回落。本期表需202.68（-5.96），（同比-16.9）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增，社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存434.25（-18.29），（同比+34.51）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率37.23%，环比上周增加1.30个百分点，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储公布的12月会议纪要显示，F ...

Report Overview - Research Variety: Corn starch [1] - Report Cycle: Daily [1] - Date: December 29, 2025 [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - The cs2603 contract of corn starch futures mainly showed a fluctuating upward trend on December 29, 2025. The closing price was 2,535 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 131,000 lots, an increase of 20,270 lots compared with the previous trading day. The open interest was 200,000 lots, an increase of 8,199 lots compared with the previous trading day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - The total open interest of 6 contracts of corn starch futures was 263,701 lots, an increase of 909 lots compared with the previous trading day [4] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Quotes - On December 29, 2025, the spot quotes of corn starch in some domestic regions were as follows: Heilongjiang 2,540 yuan/ton, unchanged; Liaoning 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jilin 2,620 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong 2,730 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - On December 29, the CIF price of imported US corn was 269 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton from the previous day. The import cost was 2,178 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton from the previous day. The import cost after additional tariffs was 2,383 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the previous day [7] 4. Market Outlook - The 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages of the cs2603 contract of corn starch are showing a long - position arrangement. The grain sales progress in the Northeast corn - producing area this year is faster than the same period last year, and the grain quality is generally good. However, the willingness of grass - roots farmers to sell grain is average, and the downstream demand support is insufficient. It is expected that the price of the cs2603 contract of corn starch will continue to fluctuate in the future [9]

苯乙烯库存回建周期迟迟未兑现 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-142元/吨（-33）。纯苯港口库存30.00万吨（+2.70万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费137美元/ 吨（+5美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费129美元/吨（+3美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差179.9美元/吨（+0.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-160元/吨（-10元/吨）。 纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-12-31 纯苯下游方面：己内酰胺生产利润-370元/吨（+40），酚酮生产利润-902元/吨（+0），苯胺生产利润857元/吨（+68）， 己二酸生产利润-836元/吨（+39）。己内酰胺开工率74.04%（-0.12%），苯酚开工率78.50%（+2.50%），苯胺开工率 62.98%（+1.63%），己二酸开工率63.60%（+4.00%）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差84元/吨（+11元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润88元/吨（+69元/吨），预期逐步压缩。 苯乙烯华东港口库存138800吨（-500吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存83300吨（-1250吨），处于库存回建阶段。苯乙烯开 工率70.7%（+1 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-31 单边：短期区间操作，关注消费与库存拐点，择机逢高卖出套保 假期临近，碳酸锂热情降温 市场分析 2025-12-30，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于117000元/吨，收于121580元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-3.77%。当 日成交量为459530手，持仓量为511309手，前一交易日持仓量512345手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为-1960 元/吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单19491手，较上个交易日变化1300手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价114000-122000元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨，工业级碳酸锂报 价112000-118000元/吨，较前一交易日变化0元/吨。6%锂精矿价格1550美元/吨，较前一日变化-15美元/吨。广期所 公告，自2025年12月30日（星期二）结算时起，碳酸锂期货合约涨跌停板幅度调整为10%，投机交易保证金标准调 整为12%，套期保值交易保证金标准调整为11%，2026年1月5日（星期一）恢复交易后，在各品种期货持仓量最大 的合约未出现涨跌停板单边无连续报价的第一个交易日结算时起，碳酸锂 ...

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation. In a situation of double reduction in supply and demand, the upside potential depends on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory depletion progress, while the downside is limited by cost support and production cut expectations. [3] - Polysilicon prices are expected to remain in the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton for range-bound consolidation. The risk control measures of raising the margin by the Guangzhou Futures Exchange have raised the trading and holding threshold and affected market sentiment. Currently, it is waiting for the fundamentals to become clearer. [6] Group 3: Market Analysis - Industrial Silicon - On December 30, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,705 yuan/ton and closed at 8,915 yuan/ton, a change of 95 yuan/ton (1.08%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2605 had a position of 216,220 lots, and the total number of warehouse receipts on December 29, 2025, was 10,027 lots, a change of 120 lots from the previous day. [1] - Industrial silicon spot prices remained basically stable. According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 (0) yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 (0) yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygenated 553 price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton, and 99 silicon price was 8,600 - 8,800 (0) yuan/ton. Silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Northwest, Tianjin, Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Shanghai remained flat, and the price of 97 silicon was stable. [1] - As of December 18, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 553,000 tons, a change of -1.43% from the previous week. Among them, the social general warehouse was 138,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse (including the part not registered as warehouse receipts and the spot warehouse) was 415,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous week. [1] Group 4: Market Analysis - Consumption of Industrial Silicon - According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 (0) yuan/ton. SMM reported that the weekly output of polysilicon was basically stable. The planned production of polysilicon in December was around 114,000 tons, a slight decrease from November, with limited change in the demand for industrial silicon. [2] - The weekly production schedule of silicone fluctuated slightly from the previous week. In early December, monomer plants successively reduced production, and the production schedule decreased compared to November. The reduction in industrial silicon consumption in December may be around 5,000 tons. [2] - The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. The secondary aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that reduced production due to air pollution last week maintained the production - reduction state this week. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and it is expected that the operating rate will be mainly stable with a weak trend in the future. [2] Group 5: Strategy - Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation - Inter - period: None - Inter - commodity: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [3] Group 6: Market Analysis - Polysilicon - On December 30, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2605 fluctuated downward, opening at 56,500 yuan/ton and closing at 57,890 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of -0.19% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 83,335 (95,631 in the previous trading day) lots, and the trading volume on the day was 42,713 lots. [3] - Polysilicon spot prices strengthened slightly. According to SMM statistics, the price of N - type material was 50.00 - 55.00 (0.10) yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 (0.00) yuan/kg. [3] - According to SMM statistics, the inventory of polysilicon manufacturers increased, and the silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 30.30, a change of 3.40% from the previous period, the silicon wafer inventory was 21.69 GW, a change of 0.88% from the previous period, the weekly output of polysilicon was 25,300.00 tons, a change of 1.20% from the previous period, and the silicon wafer output was 10.33 GW, a change of -3.19% from the previous period. [3] - In terms of silicon wafers, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.35 (0.10) yuan/piece, the price of N - type 210mm was 1.65 (0.10) yuan/piece, and the price of N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.45 (0.10) yuan/piece. [3] Group 7: Market Analysis - Battery Cells and Components of Polysilicon - In terms of battery cells, the price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.27 (0.00) yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 (0.00) yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cells were about 0.38 (0.02) yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.38 (0.02) yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cells were 0.38 (0.02) yuan/W. HJT210 half - piece battery was 0.37 (0.00) yuan/W. [5] - For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 (0.00) yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 (0.00) yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 (0.00) yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 (0.00) yuan/W. [5] Group 8: Strategy - Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, and the main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton - Inter - period: None - Inter - commodity: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [6]

化工日报 | 2025-12-31 EG延续累库，价格低位整理 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价3847元/吨（较前一交易日变动+30元/吨，幅度+0.79%），EG华东市场现货价 3702元/吨（较前一交易日变动+19元/吨，幅度+0.52%），EG华东现货基差-139元/吨（环比-3元/吨）。 生产利润方面：据隆众数据，乙烯制EG生产毛利为-87美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤基合成气制EG生产毛利为-841 元/吨（环比+16元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为84.4万吨（环比+2.5万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为64.5万吨（环比+2.8万吨）。据CCF数据，上周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，副 港到港量2.5万吨；本周华东主港计划到港总数10.6万吨，副港到港量4.3万吨，整体中性略偏高，预计主港将平衡 略累。 整体基本面供需逻辑：国内供应端，合成气制负荷挤出不明显，国内乙二醇负荷回升至7成以上高位，1~2月高供 应和需求转弱下累库压力仍大；海外供应方面，随着沙特、台湾装置检修，后续2月后进口压力将有所 ...

光大期货煤化工商品日报 光大期货煤化工商品日报（2025 年 12 月 31 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 尿素 | 周二尿素期货价格坚挺震荡，主力05合约收盘价1743元/吨，涨幅0.46%。现货市场 | 坚挺 震荡 | | | 多数稳定，个别地区价格略微波动。昨日山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1710元/ | | | | 吨、1690元/吨，日环比分别持平、下跌10元/吨。近期尿素装置故障较多，供应水 | | | | 平持续回落，昨日行业日产量19.45万吨，日环比回落0.02万吨。需求情绪跟随市场 | | | | 情绪回暖，昨日主流地区产销率提升至100%及以上水平，个别地区产销率 200% | | | | ，但也仍有个别地区成交偏弱。短期尿素供需变化幅度依旧有限，期货盘面则受到 | | | | 小作文消息扰动、相关品种走强带动 表现坚挺，但尿素自身暂时缺乏持续性上涨 | | | | 动能，且节前资金流动较大，建议观望为主，轻仓或 仓 节。节后市场关注点仍 | | | | 在于印标结果及我国出口政策变化，阶段性题材发酵仍有短期右侧交易机会 ...

化工日报 | 2025-12-31 轮胎企业产销压力仍存 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15670元/吨，较前一日变动+5元/吨；NR主力合约12690元/吨，较前一日变动+25 元/吨；BR主力合约11565元/吨，较前一日变动-35元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15250元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14700元/吨，较前一 日变动+0元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1875美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1805 美元/吨，较前一日变动+0美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11500元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨。浙江 传化BR9000市场价11450元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量64.36万吨，环比增 加25.98%，同比增加14.69%，2025年1-11月累计进口数量587.16万吨，累计同比增加16.98%。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年11月报告预测，11月全球天胶产量料降2.6%至147.4万吨，较上月 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - **Positive (Trend Intensity: 1)**: Paper pulp, Methanol [31][42] - **Negative (Trend Intensity: -1)**: Synthetic rubber, Caustic soda [17][27] - **Neutral (Trend Intensity: 0)**: Para - xylene, PTA, MEG, Rubber, LLDPE, PP, Glass, Urea, Styrene, Soda ash, LPG, Propylene, PVC, Fuel oil, Low - sulfur fuel oil, Container Freight Index (European Line), Staple fiber, Bottle chips, Offset printing paper, Pure benzene [2][12][18] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: The report provides daily market analyses and outlooks for various energy and chemical commodities, including price trends, supply - demand dynamics, and key influencing factors [2][9][10] - **Specific Commodities**: - **PX and PTA**: Expected to be in a high - level consolidation market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is rising with marginal decline in polyester demand [9][10] - **MEG**: Port inventory is accumulating again, with a weak trend. However, there is a marginal improvement in the inventory build - up expectation [11] - **Rubber**: In a wide - range consolidation state, affected by tire enterprise production plans [12] - **Synthetic rubber**: Prices are falling from a high level, with weakening fundamentals and following the decline of the commodity index [15][17] - **LLDPE**: Upstream inventory is being transferred, with stable basis. There is medium - term supply - demand pressure [18] - **PP**: The market is expected to consolidate steadily in January due to multiple PDH unit maintenance plans, but the overall fundamentals are weak [21][22] - **Caustic soda**: High - production and high - inventory situation persists, with attention on January delivery pressure [26] - **Paper pulp**: The market is expected to be consolidating with an upward bias, and attention should be paid to market capital trends and inventory changes [31][32] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, and market trading has improved locally [35] - **Methanol**: Short - term strength is expected, but there is a risk of negative feedback from MTO [41][42] - **Urea**: The oscillation center is moving up, supported by the expected peak agricultural demand season in 2026, but price elasticity is limited [43][46] - **Styrene**: Short - term oscillation is expected. The processing fee is expected to remain at a medium - high level, but there is a risk of negative feedback from downstream [47][49] - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change, with weak and stable oscillations [52] - **LPG**: The January CP is released at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [54] - **Propylene**: Spot supply and demand are tightening, with an expectation of a rebound from the decline [54] - **PVC**: The market is in a weak - level consolidation, with limited rebound space due to high - production and high - inventory structure [62] - **Fuel oil**: The market is in a narrow - range adjustment, and short - term strength may be maintained [65] - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [65] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The market is in a high - level consolidation, with different investment strategies for different contracts [67][77] - **Staple fiber and Bottle chips**: Both are in a high - level consolidation state [81] - **Offset printing paper**: It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach, with stable market prices [84] - **Pure benzene**: The market is expected to be in short - term oscillation. The price is expected to show a pattern of wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center in 2026 [48][89] 3. Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: The price is in a high - level consolidation. Supply is increasing as some domestic and overseas plants are restarting or maintaining high - load operation. Demand is decreasing as PTA plant operating rates decline. Polyester has high operating rates but more maintenance is expected in 1 - 2 months [9] - **PTA**: In a high - level consolidation. Supply is rising as some plants are restarting. Polyester demand is marginally declining but still at a relatively high level. PTA is in a de - stocking state, which is beneficial for the spread and basis [10] - **MEG**: Port inventory is accumulating. Supply operating rates are stable, and demand is decreasing as polyester operating rates decline. There is a marginal improvement in the inventory build - up expectation due to potential load - reduction of some domestic and overseas plants [11] Rubber - The market is in a wide - range consolidation. The futures price has small fluctuations, and the spot price is relatively stable. Some domestic tire enterprises plan to conduct maintenance during the "New Year's Day" holiday to relieve inventory pressure [12][14] Synthetic Rubber - The price is falling from a high level. The futures price has declined, and the trading volume and open interest have decreased. The fundamentals have weakened marginally in the past two weeks, and it is expected to be in a weak - level consolidation [15][17] LLDPE - Upstream inventory is being transferred to the middle - stream, and the basis is stable. The raw material price has rebounded, and the profit of the PE process has been compressed. There is medium - term supply - demand pressure due to high production capacity and weakening demand [18][19] PP - The market is expected to consolidate steadily in January due to multiple PDH unit maintenance plans. The cost side is under pressure, and the demand is weak. The overall fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in PDH units [21][22] Caustic Soda - It remains in a high - production and high - inventory pattern. The demand is weak due to the over - supply of alumina and seasonal decline in non - aluminum downstream demand. The supply pressure is large as winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance. Attention should be paid to the January delivery pressure [26] Paper Pulp - The market is expected to be consolidating with an upward bias. The futures price has shown an upward trend, and the spot price is relatively stable. The downstream demand is in a state of rigid procurement, and attention should be paid to capital trends, inventory digestion of high - priced broad - leaf pulp, and port inventory de - stocking [31][33] Glass - The price of the original sheet is stable, and market trading has improved locally. The futures price has risen, and the basis has weakened. Some regions have seen price increases due to capacity reduction [35] Methanol - Short - term strength is expected. The futures price has rebounded, and the spot price has also increased. The market is trading on the strong expectation for the first quarter of 2026, but there is a risk of negative feedback from MTO if the price continues to rise [41][42] Urea - The oscillation center is moving up. The futures price has increased slightly, and the spot price is relatively stable. The market has strong expectations for the peak agricultural demand season in 2026, but price elasticity is limited due to policy suppression [43][46] Styrene - Short - term oscillation is expected. The futures price has declined slightly. The supply is relatively tight, and the processing fee is expected to remain at a medium - high level. However, there is a risk of negative feedback from downstream if the demand in the traditional peak season in the first half of 2026 is not as expected [47][50] Soda Ash - The spot market has little change, with weak and stable oscillations. The futures price has increased slightly, and the basis has weakened. The enterprise production is slightly adjusted, and the downstream demand is general [52] LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: The January CP is released at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase. The futures price has risen, and the trading volume and open interest have changed. Attention should be paid to the impact of PDH and LPG plant maintenance plans [54][59] - **Propylene**: Spot supply and demand are tightening, with an expectation of a rebound from the decline. The futures price has shown certain fluctuations, and the basis has changed [54] PVC - The market is in a weak - level consolidation. The spot price has continued to rise, but the supply - demand improvement is limited. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, and the large - scale reduction expectation may occur after the 03 contract [62][63] Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The market is in a narrow - range adjustment, and short - term strength may be maintained. The futures price has shown small fluctuations, and the spot price has increased slightly [65] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable. The futures price has declined slightly [65] Container Freight Index (European Line) - The market is in a high - level consolidation. For the 2602 contract, the key issues are the freight rate height, inflection point time, and decline rate. For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively high probability of success. For the 2610 contract, attention should be paid to the progress of the second - stage peace talks in Gaza, and short - selling on rallies in the medium - long term [67][77][79] Staple Fiber and Bottle Chips - **Staple Fiber**: The market is in a high - level consolidation. The futures price is oscillating strongly, and the spot price is stable. The sales are generally average, and the downstream purchases are on a demand - basis [81] - **Bottle Chips**: The market is in a high - level consolidation. The upstream raw material price is oscillating and rising, and the factory price is mostly stable. The market trading atmosphere has rebounded slightly [81][82] Offset Printing Paper - It is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see approach. The spot price is stable, and the market trading is general. The price in the Shandong and Guangdong markets is stable, and the dealer and downstream attitudes are cautious [84][85][87] Pure Benzene - The market is expected to be in short - term oscillation. The futures price has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased, and the market trading atmosphere is general. In 2026, the price is expected to show a pattern of wide - range oscillation with a low - front and high - back center [48][89][90]

石油沥青日报 | 2025-12-31 情绪边际改善，华南现货小幅反弹 跨品种：无 跨期：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 市场分析 1、12月30日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2602合约下午收盘价3038元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨44元/吨，涨幅 1.47%；持仓118184手，环比下跌23149手，成交243652手，环比上涨6073手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3156—3500元/吨；山东，2870—3190元/吨；华南，2900—2950元/吨； 昨日华北以及华南地区沥青现货价格有所上涨，其余地区沥青现货价格基本持稳。尽管沥青刚性需求整体表现欠 佳，但由于局部地区沥青现货流通量较为紧张，供应端存在支撑。整体来看，目前盘面定价转移到南方地区，随 着部分炼厂供应减量，情绪相比上周已有所好转，反弹预期显现。此外，委油原料断供事件则是潜在的上行风险， 市场多空因素交织，现实与预期博弈下，底部反弹需要等待更明确的信号。 策略 单边：中性，等待底部信号明确，可尝试左侧逢低多配置 原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 | 图1：山东重交沥青现货价格 | ...