Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 30, the A-share market showed a mixed trend with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.66%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.27%, and the trading volume decreased by 397 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - The prices of various futures products, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, etc., were affected by different factors such as market supply - demand, international production, and macro - market sentiment [1][2][3][4] Summary by Related Categories Stock Index Futures - On January 30, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4117.95, down 0.96%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14205.89, down 0.66%; the ChiNext Index closed at 3346.36, up 1.27%. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2.8627 trillion yuan, a decrease of 397 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The CSI 300 index fluctuated widely on January 30, closing at 4706.34, a decrease of 47.53 from the previous day [2] Coke and Coking Coal - On January 30, the coke weighted index showed a strong oscillation, closing at 1723.6, up 21.3 from the previous day [2] - The coking coal weighted index had a narrow - range consolidation on January 30, closing at 1163.8 yuan, up 14.7 from the previous day [3] - The first - round increase in coke prices has been implemented, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton. The iron - water production decreased slightly this period, and the export volume in December increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [4] - The output of sample mines of coking coal declined, the port inventory of Mongolian coal was about 4 million tons with high pressure, and China's annual import of coking coal in 2025 decreased year - on - year [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - The Indian Sugar Trade Association expects India's sugar production in the 2025 - 26 season to increase by 13% to 29.6 million tons, but the export volume will still be below the quota of 800,000 tons. Affected by this, the US sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures declined [4] Rubber - Due to a large short - term decline, Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and slightly declined on January 30. The inventory and futures warrants of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber changed accordingly [4] Soybean Meal - In the international market, Argentina's soybean crops are facing a potential yield reduction due to high - temperature drought, while Brazil's soybean harvest has started, and the USDA expects a high - yield of 178 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal price is under pressure, and the futures price lacks a continuous upward drive [5] Live Pigs - On January 30, the live - pig futures contract LH2603 closed at 11,220 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. Before the Spring Festival, the supply pressure increased, and the demand support was limited. In the medium term, the oversupply situation is difficult to change [5] Shanghai Copper - On January 30, the Shanghai copper futures contract 2603 closed at 103,680 yuan/ton. The market was affected by factors such as short - selling by the top 20 short - position holders, weak downstream procurement, and pre - festival risk aversion [5] Iron Ore - On January 30, the iron - ore futures contract 2605 closed up 0.06% at 791.5 yuan. With an increase in Australian and Brazilian iron - ore supply, a decrease in domestic arrivals, and slow pre - festival restocking by steel mills, the iron - ore price is in a volatile trend [5] Asphalt - On January 30, the asphalt futures contract 2603 closed down 0.38% at 3424 yuan. In February, the refinery production is expected to decline slightly, and the price is in a volatile state supported by cost [5] Logs - The logs futures contract 2603 opened at 789, closed at 798 on January 30, with a decrease of 125 lots in positions. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced [5][6][7] Cotton - On January 30, the Zhengzhou cotton futures contract closed at 14,770 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory increased by 46 lots. As of January 29, the cotton procurement rate was 99%, and textile enterprises purchased as needed [7] Steel - Before the Spring Festival, steel prices fluctuated slightly due to a lack of industrial contradictions and weak speculative demand. After the Spring Festival, the market still faces pressure, but policy expectations may provide some support [7] Alumina - The supply of alumina may decrease slightly during the holiday due to production shutdowns and maintenance, while the demand remains stable as electrolytic aluminum production capacity stays high [7] Shanghai Aluminum - The supply of Shanghai aluminum remains stable as the theoretical profit of electrolytic aluminum plants is good and production capacity is high. However, demand is weak due to the off - season and pre - holiday factors, and social inventory is increasing [7]

上期所沪锌主力合约大跌5%，报24980元/吨。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to fluctuate repeatedly; silicon iron and manganese silicon will have wide - range oscillations due to commodity sentiment resonance; coke has completed the first round of price increase and will oscillate at a high level; coking coal will experience high - level oscillations due to event - related fermentation; thermal coal is in a weak supply - demand balance, and coal prices will have narrow - range fluctuations before the holiday [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar futures RB2605, the closing price was 3,128 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 15 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.48%. The trading volume was 1,218,321 lots, and the position decreased by 51,270 lots. For hot - rolled coil futures HC2605, the closing price was 3,288 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 10 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.30%. The trading volume was 523,900 lots, and the position decreased by 17,466 lots. In terms of spot prices, rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions showed varying degrees of increase and decrease. The basis of RB2605 increased by 19 yuan/ton, and the basis of HC2605 increased by 20 yuan/ton [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 29, steel production increased, inventory of rebar increased while that of hot - rolled coil decreased, and apparent demand of rebar decreased while that of hot - rolled coil increased. In December, the production of medium - thick plate mills of key enterprises increased year - on - year, while that of hot - and cold - rolling mills decreased. In mid - January 2026, the daily output of key iron and steel enterprises' crude steel decreased, while that of pig iron and steel products increased. The steel inventory of key enterprises and the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities showed different changes. BHP Billiton's iron ore production reached a record high, and it accepted partial price cuts. An explosion occurred at Baotou Steel's plate plant. In December 2025, China's steel imports increased in quantity and price. The government implemented export license management for some steel products [4][6][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both rebar and hot - rolled coil have a trend intensity of 0 [7]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: For silicon iron 2603, the closing price was 5660 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 76 yuan/ton; for silicon iron 2605, the closing price was 5646 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 58 yuan/ton. For manganese silicon 2603, the closing price was 5842 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 54 yuan/ton; for manganese silicon 2605, the closing price was 5872 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 54 yuan/ton. The price of silicon iron FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5330 yuan/ton, and the price of manganese silicon FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan/ton to 5700 yuan/ton [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Two departments planned to increase the proportion of fixed - cost recovery of coal - fired power units through capacity - based electricity prices. The prices and production of silicon iron, manganese silicon, and manganese ore in different regions and enterprises changed. The average monthly operating rate and output of silicon iron in January decreased. Some steel mills issued招标 announcements and determined procurement prices for silicon iron and manganese silicon. As of January 30, the manganese ore inventory increased [9][10][11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both silicon iron and manganese silicon have a trend intensity of 0 [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: For coking coal futures JM2605, the closing price was 1155.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 9.5 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.8%. For coke futures J2605, the closing price was 1721.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.5 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.1%. The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions showed different changes, and the basis and spread also changed [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 30, the CCI metallurgical coal index of China Coal Resource Network was released. The online auction of coking coal had a lower non - successful bid rate and an average premium of 31.25 yuan/ton. The first - round price increase of coke was implemented, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was not high [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both coke and coking coal have a trend intensity of 0 [19]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The prices of thermal coal in different producing areas, ports, and overseas regions, as well as the February long - term agreement prices, showed different changes compared with the previous period and the same period last year [20]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In January, the demand for thermal coal was in the peak season, and the price fluctuated. The provincial energy work conferences in various places set the direction for 2026 energy work. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association said that the government's production quota cuts might lead to mine closures [21].

2026年02月02日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观情绪退潮，地缘影响衰减 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：高位震荡调整 | 2 | | 豆粕：盘面震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：盘面震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：回调幅度有限 | 6 | | 白糖：偏弱运行 | 7 | | 棉花：预计保持震荡走势20260202 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：现货转弱 | 9 | | 生猪：供应将加速兑现，节前压力扩大 | 10 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 11 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 豆油：高位震荡调整 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 02 月 02 日 商 品 研 究 棕榈油：宏观情绪退潮，地缘影响衰减 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 9,240 | 涨跌幅 -1.30% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 9,296 | 涨跌幅 0.61% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly hot - spot preview, listing important economic data releases and central bank decisions in the week of February 2 - 7, 2026, and analyzing their potential impacts on different futures markets [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs This week's key concerns - On February 2 at 09:45, Markit will release China's January SPGI manufacturing PMI; at 23:00, the US ISM will release the US January ISM manufacturing PMI [2]. - On February 4 at 21:15, the US ADP will release January ADP employment change [2]. - On February 5 at 20:00, the Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision, meeting minutes and monetary policy report; at 21:15, the European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision [2]. - On February 6 at 21:30, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non - farm payroll report [2]. - On February 7, the People's Bank of China will announce China's January foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves [2]. This week's hot - spot preview February 2 - China's January SPGI manufacturing PMI is expected to be 50.3 (previous value 50.1). A slight increase may help industrial and stock index futures rise and suppress treasury bond futures [3]. - The US January ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to be 48.3 (previous value 47.9). A slight increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related futures rise and suppress precious metal futures [4]. February 3 - The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce the interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 11:30, and its governor will hold a press conference at 12:30. The Australian cash rate is expected to be raised by 25 basis points to 3.85% [5]. - The EU Statistics Bureau will release the euro - area January CPI preliminary value at 18:00. The expected euro - area January harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted preliminary value is 1.7% (previous value 1.9%), and the core harmonized CPI annual rate - unadjusted preliminary value is expected to be 2.3% (same as previous value) [6]. - The Federal Reserve will release the US December 2025 industrial output monthly rate at 22:00, with a previous monthly rate of 2.7% [8]. February 4 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the prices of important production materials in the circulation field in late January at 9:30, covering 9 categories and 50 products [9]. - Markit will release China's January SPGI services PMI (expected 51.5, previous value 52.0) and SPGI composite PMI (expected 51.2, previous value 51.3) at 09:45. A slight decrease may suppress stock index and commodity futures and help treasury bond futures [10]. - The US ADP will release January ADP employment change at 21:15. The expected new employment is 45,000 (previous value 41,000). A slight increase may help non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures rise and suppress precious metal futures [11]. - The US ISM will release the US January ISM non - manufacturing PMI at 23:00. The expected value is 53.3 (previous value 54.4). A decrease may help precious metal futures rise [12]. - The US EIA will release the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending January 30 at 23:30. A continued decline may help crude oil and related commodity futures rise [13]. February 5 - The Bank of England will announce the interest rate decision, meeting minutes and monetary policy report at 20:00, and its governor will hold a press conference at 20:30. The UK central bank base rate is expected to remain at 3.75% [14]. - The European Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision at 21:15, and its governor will hold a press conference at 21:45. The euro - area main refinancing rate, deposit facility rate and marginal lending rate are expected to remain at 2.15%, 2% and 2.4% respectively [15]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 31 at 21:30. The expected value is 212,000 (previous value 209,000). A slight increase may help precious metal futures rise and suppress other industrial futures [16]. February 6 - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January non - farm payroll report at 21:30. The expected seasonally adjusted new non - farm employment is 70,000 (previous value 50,000), the unemployment rate is 4.4% (same as previous value), and the average hourly wage monthly rate is 0.3% (same as previous value). An increase in new non - farm employment may suppress precious metal futures and help other industrial futures [17][18]. - The University of Michigan will release the preliminary value of the US February consumer confidence index at 23:00. The expected value is 55 (previous value 56.4). A decrease may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures and help precious metal futures [19]. February 7 - The People's Bank of China will announce China's January foreign exchange reserves and gold reserves. The December 2025 foreign exchange reserves were $3,357.87 billion, and the gold reserves were 74.15 million ounces [20].

2026.2.2-2.6 纯碱、玻璃 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 纯碱期货 中线行情分析 纯碱期货处于震荡阶段。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周国内纯碱市场窄幅盘整，价格波动有限，多数地区价格持稳。 供应整体宽松，企业开工波动但检修较少，且新产能逐步释放。下 游需求平淡，以刚需采购为主，节前补货有限，市场观望情绪浓厚。 企业普遍亏损，降价空间受限，稳价意愿较强。供需宽松格局下， 价格缺乏上涨动力。纯碱期货窄幅震荡，宏观情绪回暖与出口数据 利好提供支撑，但供应高位、需求偏淡及行业亏损等基本面因素持 续压制上方空间，市场情绪谨慎，短期预计维持震荡偏弱态势。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 Contents 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 目录 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 上周纯碱市场稳中偏弱，部分价格小幅松动，供需博弈持续， 预计延续窄幅偏弱整理。期货承压下行，受高供应、弱需求 及下游疲软拖累，缺乏反弹动力，维持偏空观点。 本周策略建议 上周纯碱现货市场窄幅盘整，供需宽松，价格缺乏上涨动力， 预计弱稳震荡。期货多空交织，宏观情绪与基本面矛盾并存， 短期料震荡偏弱。 相关 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **豆粕期货**: The soybean meal futures are expected to maintain a range - bound pattern. Brazil's soybean harvest is abundant and gradually hitting the market, leading to significant global supply pressure. Domestic downstream demand is weak, while high oil - mill operation rates and low breeding profits suppress consumption growth. However, Argentina's drought and the continuous reduction of domestic soybean meal inventory provide bottom support [6]. - **豆油期货**: The soybean oil futures price is expected to continue a wide - range fluctuation. As the oil - mill operation rate recovers, soybean oil supply is becoming looser, and terminal consumption is weak, with inventory pressure still existing. But the US biodiesel policy expectations and international crude oil price fluctuations support the soybean oil futures price [29]. 3. Summary by Directory 豆粕期货 - **中线行情分析** - The soybean meal futures are in a range - bound stage. The 4th - week oil - mill soybean actual crushing volume is 2.1021 million tons, the operation rate is 57.83%, and the soybean meal inventory is 898,600 tons. Pay attention to South American weather, Brazil's new - crop arrival rhythm, and domestic breeding demand [6]. - **品种交易策略** - **上周策略回顾**: The soybean meal futures price was in a sideways trend last week, with a slightly bearish capital sentiment. The M2605 was expected to be in a range - bound pattern, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [9]. - **本周策略建议**: The soybean meal futures price is currently in a sideways trend, with a strongly bearish capital sentiment. The M2605 is expected to be in a weak - range fluctuation, with an expected operating range of 2700 - 2800 [10]. - **相关数据情况** - Data includes soybean meal weekly output, weekly inventory, apparent consumption, weekly inventory days, basis, and oil - meal ratio. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures trading consulting department [19][21][24] 豆油期货 - **中线行情分析** - The soybean oil futures are in a wide - range fluctuation stage. The 125 oil - mills' actual soybean oil output in the 4th week is 39,940 tons, and the national key - area commercial soybean oil inventory is 956,000 tons. Pay attention to the US biodiesel policy, crude oil trends, and domestic demand [29]. - **品种交易策略** - **上周策略回顾**: The soybean oil futures price was in an upward trend last week, with a slightly bullish capital sentiment. The Y2605 was expected to continue a slightly bullish range - bound pattern [32]. - **本周策略建议**: The soybean oil futures price is in an upward trend, with a slightly bullish capital sentiment. The Y2605 is expected to be in a high - level range - bound stage [32]. - **相关数据情况** - Data includes soybean oil weekly output, weekly inventory, basis, trading volume, soybean weekly arrival volume, weekly inventory, weekly crushing volume, weekly operation rate, weekly port inventory, and Brazil's premium. The data sources are Wind, Mysteel, and the Great Wall Futures trading consulting department [42][45][47]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures are trading lower in the Asian market, with Nasdaq 100 futures down by 0.8% and S&P 500 futures down by 0.6% [1] - Spot gold experienced significant volatility, hitting a low of $4,783.98 per ounce before rebounding to around $4,840, reflecting a daily decline of 0.5% [1] - Spot silver also showed considerable fluctuations, reaching a low of $80.53 per ounce and currently rebounding to $82.15, with a daily drop of 2.7% [1] - Brent crude oil futures opened lower in the Asian market, down by 2.4% to $67.78 per barrel [1]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 工业硅：上游减产发酵，震荡偏强 2026 年 02 月 01 日 多晶硅：关注现货实际成交情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 工业硅运行情况：本周工业硅盘面震荡偏强，部分资金交易上游工厂减产的预期，周五盘面收于 8850 元/吨。现货市场价格持稳，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 8700 元/吨（环比不变），内蒙 99 硅报价 9050 元/吨 (环比+100)。 报告导读： 本周价格走势：工业硅盘面震荡偏强，现货价格持平；多晶硅盘面宽幅震荡，现货报价或有松动 供需基本面：工业硅本周行业库存去库；多晶硅上游库存继续累库 工业硅供给端，上游或大幅减产。据咨询商统计，本周新疆地区开工减少，系新疆某工厂因部分因素大 面积停炉，整体周产环减。具体而言，西南地区进入枯水期，按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000- 10500 元/吨(折盘面)，枯水期当地开工目前已降至极低位置。新疆地区部分工厂因原料问题亦有减产驱动， 将带来较明显的供给收缩。库存角度，SMM 统计本周社会库存累库 0.2 万吨，厂库库存累库 0.41 万吨，整 体行 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the 05 contract showed an upward trend this week, but it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. The supply is expected to decrease, demand may recover slightly, and cost support will rise [4][5]. - For polysilicon, the 05 contract also rose this week, and it is also predicted to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week. Supply production is expected to continue to decrease, demand will show some recovery but may be weak later, and cost support will remain stable [8][9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review and Outlook Industrial Silicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 8,605 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 8,820 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 2.50% [4]. - Supply: This week's supply was 83,000 tons, a 2.35% decrease from the previous week. The sample enterprise output was 44,140 tons, a 0.23% increase. The expected monthly operating rate is 61%, a 3.59 - percentage - point decrease from last month [4]. - Demand: This week's demand was 70,000 tons, a 4.10% decrease. Demand remains sluggish, with different situations in polysilicon, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy sectors [5]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - blown 553 in Xinjiang was 9,794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. Cost support increased during the dry season [5]. - Inventory: Social inventory was 556,000 tons, a 0.18% increase; sample enterprise inventory was 213,100 tons, a 2.70% increase; major port inventory was 137,000 tons, remaining unchanged [5]. Polysilicon - Price: The 05 contract opened at 50,200 yuan/ton on Monday and closed at 50,720 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly increase of 1.04% [8]. - Supply: Last week's production was 20,500 tons, a 4.65% decrease. The predicted January production schedule is 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease from last month [8]. - Demand: Different trends are seen in silicon wafers, battery cells, and components. Overall, demand shows some recovery but may be weak later [8][9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 15,400 yuan/ton [8]. - Inventory: Weekly inventory was 330,000 tons, a 2.80% increase, at a historically high level [9]. 2. Fundamental Analysis - Industrial Silicon Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: Analyzes the trends of the SI main contract basis and the price difference between different grades of silicon [15][16]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: Presents the inventory trends of industrial silicon in different regions and ports [18][19][20]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: Shows the production and capacity utilization trends of industrial silicon sample enterprises [22][23][24]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: Analyzes the cost trends of industrial silicon in different regions [29][30][31]. - Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance: Provides both weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables for industrial silicon [33][34][37]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organic Silicon: Covers various aspects such as price, production, import - export, and inventory trends [39][40][42]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy: Analyzes price, supply, inventory, and production trends, as well as the demand from the automotive and wheel hub sectors [47][48][52]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon: Includes cost, price, inventory, supply - demand balance, and trends of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [55][56][59]. 3. Technical Analysis - SI Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [79]. - PS Main Contract: This week, the main 05 contract showed an upward trend, and it is expected to have a bearish oscillatory adjustment next week [81].