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玻璃期货市场驱动相对有限 短期仍以底部盘整为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-11-14 06:59
Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for the energy and chemical sector shows mixed performance, with glass futures experiencing a slight decline due to weak demand from the real estate sector and high inventory levels [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, the main glass futures contract has decreased by 1.52%, trading at 1036.00 yuan/ton [1] - The overall market sentiment appears weak, with futures prices continuing to fall into undervalued territory [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Glass production has decreased by 12,100 tons week-on-week, maintaining a daily melting rate of 159,100 tons [1] - Demand is negatively impacted by a sluggish real estate market, leading to poor demand outlook and expectations of supply reduction [1] - Despite expectations for supply-demand adjustments, short-term consumption during the peak season is below expectations, with inventory remaining high [1] Group 3: Inventory Levels - As of November 13, the total inventory of float glass in sample enterprises reached 63.247 million heavy boxes, an increase of 111,000 heavy boxes week-on-week, representing a 0.18% rise [1] - Year-on-year, inventory levels have increased by 33.61%, with an average inventory holding period of 27.5 days, up by 0.4 days from the previous period [1]
建信期货沥青日报-20251114
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 06:48
1. Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: November 14, 2025 [2] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Market: BU2601 opened at 3052 yuan/ton, closed at 3029 yuan/ton, with a high of 3058 yuan/ton, a low of 2999 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.05%, and a trading volume of 26.99 million lots. BU2512 opened at 3053 yuan/ton, closed at 3028 yuan/ton, with a high of 3063 yuan/ton, a low of 3003 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.21%, and a trading volume of 0.64 million lots [6]. - Spot Market: The asphalt spot prices in North China, South China, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions continued to decline, while those in other regions remained relatively stable. The decline in crude oil and asphalt futures prices had a negative impact on the sentiment of the asphalt spot market [6]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: Qilu Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil, while Jincheng Petrochemical is expected to resume asphalt production. Jinling Petrochemical in East China and Shengxing Petrochemical in Shandong are likely to maintain stable production after resuming operations. Shanghai Petrochemical also plans to switch to asphalt production around November 9. The asphalt plant operating rate is expected to increase slightly [7]. - Demand: The demand pattern shows regional differentiation. In the Northeast and Northwest regions, the rigid demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year due to the suspension of road projects. In North China, Shandong, and surrounding areas, the rigid demand remains stable due to the construction rush before the heating season. In the South, some projects are entering the construction rush stage, and the demand is expected to be stable. Overall, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the speculative demand remains weak, putting pressure on the market [7]. Market Outlook - The oil price lacks support, and the supply and demand of asphalt are both weak. After this round of decline, the basis has significantly narrowed. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate in the short term [7]. 3. Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt is 2980 - 3620 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. Although the international oil price declined again, the asphalt futures showed strong performance during the session. Due to the queuing for loading at some refineries, the quotes of most traders remained stable, and only a few refineries raised their prices [8]. - East China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A-grade asphalt is 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. The asphalt futures weakened again during the session after two days of increase. The price of social inventories in Jiangsu is around 3200 yuan/ton, and the price increase is restricted by demand and regional price differences. Some refineries are under great inventory pressure, and the price difference between refineries and social inventories is large, so the prices are also under pressure. The ex-factory price for road transportation remains at 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton [8]. 4. Data Overview - The report provides data on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][13][15]
新能源及有色金属日报:政策及情绪扰动仍在,多晶硅盘面维持宽幅震荡-20251114
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 05:50
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, after production cuts in the southwest region, the supply - demand pattern may improve, and the overall inventory has decreased. The industrial silicon futures market is mainly affected by overall commodity sentiment and policy - related news. If there are policies to promote, there may be room for the price to rise. For polysilicon, both supply and demand have weakened, with large inventory pressure and average consumer - end performance. The market is affected by anti - involution policies and weak reality, and the policy is still being promoted, so the price is expected to fluctuate mainly [3][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On November 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated. The main contract 2601 opened at 9150 yuan/ton and closed at 9145 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (-0.22%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 267,758 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 45,387 lots, a decrease of 549 lots from the previous day [1]. - **Supply Side**: The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 9800 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - blown 553 was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton. The silicon prices in various regions were flat. The total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions on November 13 was 546,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week. The inventory in social ordinary warehouses was 127,000 tons, unchanged from last week, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 419,000 tons, a decrease of 6000 tons from last week [1]. - **Consumption Side**: According to SMM statistics, the quotation of organic silicon DMC was 12,000 - 12,500 yuan/ton. The domestic DMC market showed a trend of first stabilizing and then rising this week, with the current quotation range up about 1100 yuan/ton from the average price last week. Shandong monomer enterprises quoted 12,500 yuan/ton, and other domestic monomer enterprises stopped quoting [2]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and long positions can be taken on dips for contracts during the dry season [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - **Futures Market**: On November 13, 2025, the main contract 2601 of polysilicon futures fluctuated strongly, opening at 53,500 yuan/ton and closing at 54,195 yuan/ton, a 3.69% increase from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 144,026 lots (140,617 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 277,916 lots [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.40 - 54.90 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type granular silicon was 50.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 267,000 tons, a 3.09% month - on - month increase, and the silicon wafer inventory was 18.42GW, a 5.14% month - on - month increase. The weekly polysilicon output was 26,800 tons, a - 0.74% month - on - month change, and the silicon wafer output was 13.12GW, a - 2.45% month - on - month change. The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable [6][7]. Strategy - Short - term interval operation, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton [8].
石油沥青日报:原油端大幅下跌,成本端支撑转弱-20251114
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 05:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish, mainly on short - term wait - and - see [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - The sharp decline in the crude oil end weakened the cost - side support, driving the asphalt futures market lower. The terminal demand for asphalt remained weak, the downstream procurement was cautious, and the market trading atmosphere was average. After the sharp drop in oil prices, the profits of refineries with quotas were boosted, which would continue to suppress asphalt prices, and there was no signal of a reversal in the market weakness [1] Market Analysis - On November 13, the closing price of the main BU2601 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3029 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton or 1.05% from the previous settlement price. The open interest was 193,772 lots, a decrease of 4,500 lots from the previous day, and the trading volume was 269,855 lots, an increase of 86,160 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information were: 3,156 - 3,700 yuan/ton in Northeast China, 2,980 - 3,620 yuan/ton in Shandong, 3,150 - 3,210 yuan/ton in South China, and 3,300 - 3,400 yuan/ton in East China [1] - The spot prices of asphalt in North China, South China, and Sichuan - Chongqing regions continued to decline, while those in other regions were relatively stable [1] Figures - The figures cover various aspects of asphalt, including spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, and Northwest), futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract), trading volume and open interest of futures, domestic and regional asphalt production, domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproof, coking, ship - fuel), and asphalt refinery and social inventories [3]
纯苯苯乙烯日报:海外汽油带动纯苯及苯乙烯反弹-20251114
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 05:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of pure benzene and styrene. For pure benzene, due to the low refinery utilization rate in the US, strong gasoline crack spreads, and increased blending demand, the demand for Asian aromatics has risen, leading to an increase in the US pure benzene price. The arbitrage spread from South Korea to the US has been quickly repaired, and the pressure of overseas pure benzene flowing into China may ease. Domestic production utilization continues to rise, but downstream production utilization remains average. For styrene, the prices in Europe and the US have also strengthened, with a small increase in China's exports to Europe. The port inventory has continued to decline slightly, mainly driven by loss - induced production cuts, but there is an expectation of resuming production at the end of November. Attention should be paid to downstream demand performance [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Figures include pure benzene's main contract basis, spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and EB's main contract basis and inter - period spread, but specific data analysis is not detailed in the provided text [8][15][20] II. Pure Benzene and Styrene Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Figures involve naphtha processing fees, pure benzene's FOB Korea - CFR Japan spread, styrene non - integrated production profits, and domestic - foreign spreads of pure benzene and styrene, but detailed data analysis is not given [22][25][40] III. Pure Benzene and Styrene Inventory and Production Utilization - Pure benzene's port inventory is 11.30 million tons (- 0.80 million tons), and its production utilization continues to rise. Styrene's port inventory is 174,800 tons (- 4,500 tons), and its production utilization is 69.3% (+ 2.3%), with an expectation of resuming production at the end of November [1][21][42] IV. Styrene's Downstream Production Utilization and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 209 yuan/ton (- 99 yuan/ton), with a production utilization of 51.63% (- 2.32%); PS production profit is 9 yuan/ton (- 49 yuan/ton), with a production utilization of 55.40% (+ 1.90%); ABS production profit is - 367 yuan/ton (- 53 yuan/ton), with a production utilization of 71.80% (+ 0.20%). EPS is in the off - season with reduced production, and ABS and PS production utilizations are still low [2][52][53] V. Pure Benzene's Downstream Production Utilization and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 1,640 yuan/ton (- 70), with a production utilization of 86.05% (+ 0.00%); phenol - acetone production profit is - 390 yuan/ton (+ 0), with a production utilization of 67.00% (- 8.50%); aniline production profit is 496 yuan/ton (- 63), with a production utilization of 80.17% (+ 2.43%); adipic acid production profit is - 1,313 yuan/ton (- 63), with a production utilization of 62.00% (- 3.60%) [1][63][70]
液化石油气日报:原油价格大跌,LPG市场相对坚挺-20251114
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 05:35
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, with a short - term focus on observation [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View - Despite a significant drop in crude oil prices, the LPG market remained relatively strong. The external market continued its rebound, and high discounts supported the cost of arrival. The PG futures market fluctuated with a slight upward trend, while domestic spot prices showed a mixed performance. In the short term, the LPG fundamentals tightened marginally due to a decline in domestic refinery product volume and a decrease in arrivals, providing some support to the market. However, in the medium term, the overall supply - demand pattern has not reversed. Abundant overseas supplies and limited downstream chemical demand due to insufficient profit growth may restrict the market's upside potential [1] 3. Market Analysis Summary - **Regional Spot Prices on November 13**: Shandong market: 4330 - 4460 yuan/ton; Northeast market: 3960 - 4110 yuan/ton; North China market: 4200 - 4400 yuan/ton; East China market: 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; Yangtze River region: 4520 - 4780 yuan/ton; Northwest market: 4170 - 4250 yuan/ton; South China market: 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton [1] - **China's East China Frozen Cargo Arrival Prices in the First Half of December 2025**: Propane was 550 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar/ton, equivalent to 4291 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Butane was 541 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4221 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton [1] - **China's South China Frozen Cargo Arrival Prices in the First Half of December 2025**: Propane was 550 dollars/ton, up 7 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4244 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; Butane was 535 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars/ton, equivalent to 4174 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton [1]
氯碱日报:印度BIS认证取消,关注反倾销税结果-20251114
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 05:35
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend with an abundant supply due to new production capacity and a decrease in downstream demand. The export situation is uncertain, and the inventory is relatively high. Attention should be paid to relevant policies [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda remains stable. The supply increases with fewer device overhauls, and the demand varies in different sectors. The cost provides some support, and attention should be paid to the alumina plant's procurement demand and price trends [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4,586 yuan/ton (+5), the East China basis is -76 yuan/ton (-25), and the South China basis is 4 yuan/ton (+15) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method offers 4,510 yuan/ton (-20), and the South China calcium carbide method offers 4,590 yuan/ton (+20) [1]. - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 800 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit is -100 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit is -769 yuan/ton (-6), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit is -465 yuan/ton (+79), and the PVC export profit is -0.7 US dollars/ton (-8.8) [1]. - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory is 33.5 tons (-0.3), the social inventory is 54.6 tons (+0.1), the calcium carbide method operation rate is 79.57% (-0.60%), the ethylene method operation rate is 70.13% (-7.10%), and the overall operation rate is 76.71% (-2.57%) [1]. - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 74.2 tons (-3.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2,337 yuan/ton (-7), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 132 yuan/ton (+7) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 790 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1,250 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1,478 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 814.5 yuan/ton (-40.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is -17.47 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 721.53 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 40.22 tons (-1.26), the flake caustic soda factory inventory is 3.02 tons (+0.12), and the operation rate is 84.10% (-0.70%) [2]. - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The alumina operation rate is 85.25% (-0.61%), the printing and dyeing operation rate in East China is 66.55% (-1.51%), and the viscose staple fiber operation rate is 89.50% (-0.10%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Two new sets of devices are under overhaul this week, but new production capacity is gradually being put into production, and the supply is still abundant [3]. - Demand: The downstream operation rate decreases, the low - price procurement improves, but the overall procurement sentiment is average [3]. - Export: The Indian BIS certification is cancelled, and attention should be paid to the result of anti - dumping duties. The export orders decline month - on - month, and India launched an anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers on September 27 [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreases slightly, but the absolute value of inventory is high, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, suppressing the futures price [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: The device overhauls decrease, and the operation rate rebounds. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton production capacity release of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: The alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the operation rate of enterprises in Hebei decreases slightly due to environmental control. The low - price orders of high - concentration caustic soda are supported, and the inventory situation varies in different regions. The non - alumina demand is mainly for rigid procurement and will weaken in the off - season [3]. - Price: The alumina plants in Guangxi are expected to be put into production, and the caustic soda bidding is in progress, which may support the price in the next two months. The electricity price in Shandong will increase in November, the liquid chlorine price is relatively weak, and the cost provides support [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Range - bound, opportunistic cash - and - carry arbitrage between futures and spot [4]. - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see [4]. - Inter - variety: None [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Range - bound [5]. - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see [5]. - Inter - variety: None [5].
新能源及有色金属日报:铝价表现内强外弱-20251114
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 05:35
Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: SHFE aluminum positive spread [9] Core Viewpoints - The aluminum price shows a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas. The overall supply - demand fundamentals of domestic electrolytic aluminum have not changed significantly, and the absolute value of social inventory is still low, which is difficult to put pressure on the absolute price. The macro - situation is favorable, and the aluminum price is still undervalued from the perspective of the copper - aluminum ratio. However, the domestic price increase lacks fundamental data support, and a short - term callback after the sentiment may occur, but the callback depth is limited. If the destocking of social inventory goes smoothly, the aluminum price is expected to break through upwards [6]. - For alumina, the supply of bauxite is under pressure, the smelting loss has not improved, the supply side has not seen large - scale production cuts, the pattern of supply - demand surplus remains unchanged, and the social inventory continues to increase. Although the price is undervalued, there may be disturbances in overseas mines [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 21,920 yuan/ton, with a change of 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is 0 yuan/ton, with a change of 10 yuan/ton. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 21,780 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 140 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 21,760 yuan/ton, with a change of 230 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 160 yuan/ton, with a change of - 15 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 21,900 yuan/ton, closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, with a change of 285 yuan/ton. The highest price was 22,145 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 21,860 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 295,292 lots, and the open interest was 446,659 lots [2]. Inventory - As of November 13, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 621,000 tons, with a change of - 6,000 tons from the previous period. The warrant inventory was 64,742 tons, with a change of 924 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 553,200 tons, with a change of 9,125 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina Spot Price - On November 13, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,840 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,925 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,945 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 320 US dollars/ton [2]. Alumina Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main alumina contract opened at 2,825 yuan/ton, closed at 2,840 yuan/ton, with a change of 17 yuan/ton (0.60% change). The highest price was 2,847 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,811 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 299,017 lots, and the open interest was 407,444 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy Price - On November 13, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 17,100 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,300 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 21,100 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous day [3]. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy is 72,100 tons, and the in - plant inventory is 59,000 tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost is 21,469 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is - 269 yuan/ton [5].
丙烯日报:下游整体开工环比上升-20251114
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 05:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Local PDH device maintenance boosts and downstream device restart brings demand increment, driving the improvement of the propylene market trading. Propylene spot prices rebound after hitting the bottom, and the futures market is slightly supported to rebound. The supply - demand gap narrows, but the overall supply remains loose, and the inventory pressure in factories is still high. The downstream demand support may increase, and the cost support is limited. The short - term price may stop falling, but the upward driving force is limited, and it may mainly fluctuate in the bottom range [2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - Figures include propylene main contract closing price, East China basis, North China basis, 01 - 05 contract, East China market price, and Shandong market price [6][9][11] 2. Propylene Production Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures cover propylene CFR in China - naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit, PDH capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [16][18][28] 3. Propylene Import and Export Profit - Figures involve South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [31][33] 4. Propylene Downstream Profit and Capacity Utilization Rate - Figures include PP powder production profit and capacity utilization rate, propylene oxide production profit and capacity utilization rate, n - butanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, octanol production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylic acid production profit and capacity utilization rate, acrylonitrile production profit and capacity utilization rate, and phenol - acetone production profit and capacity utilization rate [39][40][53] 5. Propylene Inventory - Figures are about propylene in - factory inventory and PP powder in - factory inventory [66]
新能源及有色金属日报:下游普遍观望情绪较重,铅价维持震荡格局-20251114
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-11-14 05:29
Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Sell wide straddle [3] Core Viewpoints - Low inventory and tight ore costs support the lead price, but the resumption of secondary lead production, the weakening of battery consumption, and the pressure of pre - delivery inventory transfer may lead to a pullback after a surge. It is recommended to sell high and buy low. The price range is between 17,000 yuan/ton and 17,900 yuan/ton. Physical enterprises can choose corresponding selling and buying hedging operations according to their own needs [3] Market News and Important Data Spot - On November 13, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$23.90/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,500 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 0.00 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,575 yuan/ton. SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,575 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin lead spot price increased by 200 yuan/ton to 17,625 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -75 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton. The price of waste white shells remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton. The price of waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,400 yuan/ton [1] Futures - On November 13, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,605 yuan/ton, closed at 17,650 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The trading volume was 61,405 lots, an increase of 5,562 lots compared with the previous trading day. The position was 43,468 lots, a decrease of 7,071 lots compared with the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest reaching 17,815 yuan/ton and the lowest reaching 17,575 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,705 yuan/ton, closed at 17,615 yuan/ton, down 0.54% from the afternoon closing price of the previous day. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price increased by 175 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. In Henan, some lead brands were sold at a premium of 100 - 150 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead. In Hunan, smelters sold at a premium of 50 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead. The futures price continued to fluctuate strongly, but downstream buyers generally adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and the intention to take delivery decreased significantly [2] Inventory - On November 13, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 35,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons compared with the same period last week. As of November 13, the LME lead inventory was 223,975 tons, a decrease of 1,250 tons compared with the previous trading day [2]