Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2024 annual report and 2025 Q1 report, showing mixed performance with a slight revenue growth for the year but a decline in Q4 2024 revenue, while Q1 2025 showed recovery in revenue growth [1][2]. Revenue Summary - For 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 12.262 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%. In Q4 2024, revenue was 3.001 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 7%, while Q1 2025 revenue was 2.858 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5% [1]. - In H2 2024, elevator media revenue was 6.044 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%, while cinema media revenue was 235 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 40%. The decline in cinema media was attributed to weak domestic box office performance affecting advertiser demand [2]. Profit Summary - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 5.155 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7%. In Q4 2024, net profit was 1.187 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 3%, while Q1 2025 net profit was 1.135 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9% [1]. - The company faced credit impairment losses impacting profits, with Q4 2024 losses of 32 million yuan and Q1 2025 losses of 52 million yuan, reflecting macroeconomic influences on advertiser payment cycles [5]. Cost Summary - In 2024, cinema media costs decreased by 30%, leading to a gross margin increase of 9 percentage points to 70%. Conversely, elevator media rental costs are expected to increase by 9%, with a 2% increase in per unit rental costs [4]. - The company maintained a gross margin of 66% for elevator media, remaining stable year-on-year, aided by reduced equipment depreciation and lower employee compensation costs [4]. Dividend Summary - The company announced a total dividend of 4.766 billion yuan for 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of 92.4%, slightly lower than the previous year's 98.7% [6]. Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts revenues of 12.5 billion yuan, 12.9 billion yuan, and 13.4 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with net profits of 5.4 billion yuan, 5.7 billion yuan, and 6 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 18x, 17x, and 17x [7].

Summary of China Consumer Pulse 1Q25 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese consumer market** and highlights the **fragile recovery** in consumer sentiment across various sectors, including **premium beverages**, **apparel**, **luxury goods**, **autos**, **travel**, and **home appliances** [2][30]. Key Insights 1. **Consumer Sentiment and Spending Trends** - Chinese consumer sentiment shows signs of a **fragile recovery** with **experiential spending** leading the way, particularly in **restaurant activity** and **travel** [30][32]. - **Restaurant app usage** increased by **26% YoY**, and travel during Chinese New Year and Qing Ming saw increases of **9%** and **6%** respectively [4][32]. 2. **Channel Performance** - **Digital channels** significantly outperform traditional retail, with **e-commerce beauty sales** growing by **12.7%** and **apparel platforms** by **14%** [2][32]. - Physical retail continues to struggle, indicating a stark divergence in channel performance [30]. 3. **Premium Segment Dynamics** - The **luxury goods** sector shows mixed signals, with consumers becoming more discerning and holding back on spending amid economic uncertainty [6][32]. - **Premium beverages** maintain stable pricing, while **high-end hotels** outperform the broader market [30][32]. - **Premium auto sales** have deteriorated significantly, down **13.5% YoY** [7][32]. 4. **Home Appliances and Export Strength** - The home appliance sector showed solid performance with **air conditioner shipments** growing **16% YoY**, primarily driven by strong export demand [11][12][32]. - Recent tariff announcements raise concerns about the sustainability of this growth [12][32]. 5. **Macroeconomic Factors** - Persistent **deflation** (-0.1% CPI) and escalating **trade tensions** contribute to cautious consumer behavior, with expectations of lower prices leading to delayed purchases [3][30]. - The **Q1 PMI** improved, but anticipated contraction in April indicates fragile business confidence [3][30]. 6. **Outlook and Risks** - The recovery remains fragile and vulnerable to reversal due to economic uncertainty, deflationary pressures, and escalating US-China trade tensions [30][32]. - Any acceleration in government stimulus could potentially support consumer spending [3][30]. Additional Insights - **Travel Industry**: The travel sector showed resilience with a **7%** growth in travelers, despite challenges in outbound travel due to incidents in Southeast Asia [9][23]. - **Cosmetics Sector**: Beauty eCommerce tracked companies showed a recovery with **Gross Merchandise Value** growing **12.7%**, but concerns about sustainability remain due to weak macroeconomic indicators [10][32]. - **Automotive Sector**: In Q1 2025, **EV sales** increased by **34.7% YoY**, with penetration reaching **46.1%**, indicating a strong shift towards electric vehicles [7][28]. This comprehensive analysis highlights the complexities and challenges within the Chinese consumer market, emphasizing the need for careful monitoring of economic indicators and consumer behavior trends.

证券研究报告 比音勒芬 (002832 CH) 营收稳步增长，盈利能力短期承压 华泰研究 年报点评 2025 年 4 月 29 日│中国内地 服装 比音勒芬发布 2024 年报及 1Q25 业绩：2024 年公司实现营收 40.0 亿元 （yoy+13.2%），归母净利润 7.8 亿元（yoy-14.3%），低于我们此前预期（9.1 亿元），主因消费环境仍处于弱复苏，线下渠道毛利承压明显。1Q25 营收 12.9 亿元（yoy+1.4%），归母净利润 3.3 亿元（yoy-8.5%）。利润分配方面， 24 全年拟派息 0.5 元/股，分红率约 36.6%。公司盈利短期相对承压，但营 收在消费复苏尚不确定的环境下仍保持同业领先的稳健增长，叠加定位高端 消费人群的用户壁垒以及海外品牌 KENT&CURWEN 开启第二增长曲线等 优势，维持"买入"评级。 全品类、全渠道协同发展，共同驱动公司营收增长 分品类来看，上装、外套、下装收入分别同比+13.1%/17.5%/6.3%至 17.1/11.6/7.5 亿元，占营收比重分别为 42.8%/28.8%18.8%。上装作为核心 品类，凭借其丰富的款式设计与优质面料，持 ...

奈雪门店回应倡议喝奶茶代替水：玩梗已撤下 外媒消息显示，越南Highlands Coffee在首次提出IPO计划近10年后重新考虑这一计划。创始人兼首席执 行官David Thai称，这家快乐蜂食品公司旗下的咖啡连锁店正在与投资银行商讨在越南、新加坡、香 港、阿联酋和美国证券交易所上市的可能性。 麦当劳亚太前高层加盟霸王茶姬 近日，河南驻马店奈雪的茶（玖隆茂店）在店内摆放的一份《重要通知》引发热议，该通知内容为 "能 喝奶茶就不要喝水"，不少消费者对此提出质疑。 4月29日，门店方面做出回应。门店工作人员证实，这份《重要通知》确实在柜台摆放了两三天，之后 区域经理要求撤掉，原因是内容不合适。店长解释称，这是模仿网络热梗，单纯为了搞笑，并无其他特 殊引导意图。 然而，从健康角度来看，合肥市第一人民医院营养科负责人江茜明确表示，奶茶绝对不能替代正常饮 水。"能喝奶茶就不要喝水" 这种提法无疑会误导消费者。在日常生活中，人们应优先选择饮用纯净 水、白开水或者淡茶水，减少含糖饮料的摄入。虽然每周适量饮用一两杯奶茶并无大碍，但绝不能将奶 茶作为身体水分的主要来源。 瑞幸咖啡新疆三地十店同开 近日，瑞幸咖啡新疆市场迎来十 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform" (maintained rating) [5] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook for the beverage sector, driven by the upcoming peak season and supportive macroeconomic policies from the central government [2][12] - The report emphasizes the potential for valuation recovery in the liquor sector, particularly in light of the recent political bureau meeting that indicated a more proactive fiscal and monetary policy [2][12] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - For the week of April 21 to April 25, the food and beverage sector declined by 1.36%, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.38%. Notable performances included snacks (+4.50%) and soft drinks (+2.21%), while categories like beer (-0.72%) and health products (-1.28%) saw declines [1][19] Weekly Perspective Updates - **Liquor Sector**: The liquor sector saw a decline of 1.75%, attributed to the off-peak consumption period and inventory adjustments. However, the upcoming May Day holiday is expected to boost demand for banquet scenarios, aiding in inventory reduction [2][12] - **Beer and Beverage Sector**: The beer sector decreased by 0.72%, but companies like Zhujiang Brewery saw a 5.7% increase in stock price due to better-than-expected Q1 performance. The report anticipates improved demand as the weather warms and consumption policies are implemented [3][13] - **Consumer Goods Sector**: The report identifies opportunities in the snack sector, with a focus on companies that have shown resilience and potential for growth. The upcoming sales season for soft drinks is also highlighted as a catalyst for growth [3][14] Investment Recommendations - **Liquor Sector**: Recommended stocks include strong alpha leaders like Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, as well as cyclical stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiugui Liquor [4][18] - **Consumer Goods**: The report recommends focusing on snacks and dairy products, with specific mentions of companies like Ganyuan Foods and Yuyuan Foods, which are expected to benefit from low base effects in Q2 [4][18] Sector and Individual Stock Performance - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that the snack and soft drink sectors are currently outperforming others, while the liquor sector is under pressure [19][22]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][4] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on its fundamentals, with expectations for improvement in the future [5][6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 23.17 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 7 billion yuan, which represents 105% of the net profit for the period [5][9] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company's revenue was 28.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.8% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.7 billion yuan, down 33.4% year-on-year [5][8] - For Q4 2024, the revenue was 1.4 billion yuan, a decline of 52.2% year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.9 billion yuan compared to a loss of 0.2 billion yuan in the same period last year [5] - In Q1 2025, the revenue was 11.1 billion yuan, down 31.9% year-on-year, and the net profit was 3.64 billion yuan, a decrease of 39.9% year-on-year [5][8] Revenue Breakdown - The company's liquor revenue in 2024 was 28.2 billion yuan, down 13% year-on-year, with volume and price changes of -16% and +4%, respectively [9] - The mid-to-high-end liquor segment generated 24.3 billion yuan, down 14.8% year-on-year, while the ordinary liquor segment achieved 3.9 billion yuan, down 0.5% year-on-year [9] Cost and Profitability Analysis - The gross margin for 2024 was 73.2%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 23.1%, down 7.1 percentage points year-on-year [9][12] - The company has increased its sales and management expense ratios to 19.1% and 6.7%, respectively, reflecting a rise in competitive pressures [9] Future Projections - The company expects a slight revenue increase in 2025 to 28.97 billion yuan, with a projected net profit of 6.7 billion yuan [8][12] - The estimated net profit for 2026 and 2027 is 6.9 billion yuan and 7.1 billion yuan, respectively [8][12] Shareholder Returns - The company is committed to returning value to shareholders through dividends, maintaining a high payout ratio despite the decline in profits [5][9]

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced a revenue increase of 4.8% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 7.13 billion yuan, while net profit rose by 5.8% to 850 million yuan, indicating stable growth despite challenges in Q1 2025 due to intensified competition and the timing of the Spring Festival [1][4]. Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 1.57 billion yuan, a decline of 13.8% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 67.9% to 77.24 million yuan [1]. - The company's core products, sunflower seeds and nuts, achieved revenues of 4.38 billion yuan and 1.92 billion yuan respectively in 2024, reflecting growth rates of 2.6% and 9.7% [1]. Market Segmentation - Revenue from distribution and other channels was 5.67 billion yuan, down 1.4%, while direct sales (including snacks, e-commerce, and key accounts) surged by 38.3% to 1.46 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - The Eastern region, e-commerce, and overseas markets outperformed the overall company growth, with revenues of 2.12 billion yuan, 780 million yuan, and 570 million yuan respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 9.5%, 8.9%, and 10.3% [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 28.8%, with a decline to 19.5% in Q1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year change of +2.0 and -11.0 percentage points respectively [3]. - The gross margins for sunflower seeds and nuts in 2024 were 29.7% and 27.2%, with year-on-year changes of +4.5 and -4.4 percentage points [3]. Profitability Metrics - The net profit margin for 2024 was 11.9%, decreasing to 4.9% in Q1 2025, with year-on-year changes of +0.1 and -8.3 percentage points respectively [4]. - The company anticipates gradual improvement in performance post-Q1 2025, with projected net profits of 756 million yuan, 919 million yuan, and 990 million yuan for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of -10.97%, 21.50%, and 7.79% [4].

投资要点： 成本红利延续，盈利能力同比优化。根据公司公告，测算2025Q1 公司吨酒成本为2696.3 元/吨，同比下 降2.6%，主因去年同期使用了部分高价麦芽，以及今年麦芽价格进一步下降。2025Q1 公司毛利率为 41.64%， 同比提升1.2pct 。费用端， 2025Q1 公司销售/管理/ 研发费用率分别为12.53%/3.2%/0.17%，分 别同比-0.29/-0.2/基本持平。费用率优化预计一方面是公司优化了费用投放方式，另一方面来自于销量 表现回暖后规模效应增强。2025Q1 公司归母净利率为16.37%，同比提升0.64pct。净利率提升幅度小于 毛利率，主因2025Q1 公允价值变动收益减少，以及利息收入减少等因素所致。 股价表现的催化剂：餐饮消费改善，产品提价。 核心假设风险：中高端竞争加剧，原材料成本超预期上涨。 事件：公司发布2025 年一季报，根据公司公告，2025Q1 公司实现营业总收入104.46 亿，同比增长 2.9%，归母净利润17.1 亿，同比增长7.08%，扣非净利润16.03 亿，同比增长5.9%，公司业绩符合预 期。 投资评级与估值：维持盈利预测，预测2025~2 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market" [3][47]. Core Viewpoints - The approval of Ivosidenib for first-line treatment of NSCLC in China is a significant milestone, being the first to show positive results in a clinical trial comparing it to Pembrolizumab [3]. - The HARMONi-2 trial demonstrated that Ivosidenib significantly improved progression-free survival (mPFS of 11.14 months vs. 5.82 months for Pembrolizumab), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 0.51, indicating a 49% reduction in the risk of disease progression or death [3]. - The interim analysis of overall survival (OS) at 39% maturity showed a 22.3% reduction in mortality risk for Ivosidenib compared to Pembrolizumab (HR=0.777) [3]. Summary by Sections Industry News - Ivosidenib has received approval for a new indication in first-line treatment of PD-L1 positive locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC based on the HARMONi-2 trial results [3]. - The trial involved a randomized comparison of Ivosidenib and Pembrolizumab, with primary endpoints focused on progression-free survival (PFS) [3]. - Additional studies have shown Ivosidenib's efficacy in various NSCLC settings, including in combination with chemotherapy [4]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on "innovation," "overseas expansion," "equipment upgrades," and "consumption recovery" as key investment themes [6]. - Companies to watch include innovative drug developers and those with strong overseas market potential, such as BeiGene, Dongcheng Pharmaceutical, and others [6]. Key Companies to Watch - **Nocera Healthcare**: Expected to achieve over 1 billion yuan in revenue from its core product, with a 49% year-on-year growth in sales [7]. - **Sihuan Pharmaceutical**: Strong fundamentals with a stable growth outlook, particularly in the ADC market [10]. - **China Biopharmaceutical**: Rapid revenue growth with a focus on innovative products, particularly in oncology [11]. - **Aier Eye Hospital**: Benefiting from increasing demand for eye care services and a strong pipeline of new products [20].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the retail sales growth rate rebounded month-on-month in March, reflecting strengthened expectations for consumption policies [3][4] - The food and beverage index declined by 1.4% from April 21 to April 25, ranking 28th among primary sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 1.7 percentage points [12][14] - The allocation ratio of food and beverage in funds decreased from 10.6% in Q4 2024 to 9.8% in Q1 2025, marking a new low since 2020 [12][14] - The report highlights that the snack sector performed relatively well, with companies like Salted Fish and West Oat Food achieving significant revenue growth [4][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - Funds reduced their allocation to food and beverage but concentrated their holdings, with the snack sector showing relatively strong performance [12] - The food and beverage index underperformed the market, with snacks (+4.5%), soft drinks (+2.2%), and other alcoholic beverages (+0.1%) leading the sub-industry performance [12][14] Market Performance - The food and beverage index fell by 1.4%, ranking 28th out of 28 industries, and lagged behind the CSI 300 by about 1.7 percentage points [12][14] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with the price of whole milk powder increasing by 28.7% year-on-year, while fresh milk prices fell by 10.7% year-on-year [17][22] Alcohol Industry News - Wuliangye is set to launch 17 new product series, indicating ongoing innovation in the sector [43] Memorandum - Attention is drawn to the upcoming Q1 report disclosure of Kweichow Moutai on April 30 [44]