Group 1 - The article discusses a significant drop in gold and silver prices, with silver losing half its value and gold futures dropping over 10% in a matter of hours, leading to massive losses for investors [3][5][10] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for gold and silver futures, increasing the gold margin from 6% to 8% and silver from 11% to 15%, which drained market liquidity [7][8] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary pointed fingers at Chinese traders for the volatility, claiming their speculative actions disrupted global order, reflecting a narrative anxiety in the U.S. regarding its financial dominance [12][15][21] Group 2 - The article highlights that U.S. control over gold pricing is diminishing, as evidenced by the need for high-profile political interventions to stabilize market sentiment [17][19] - China has been increasing its gold reserves for 15 consecutive months, with a total surpassing 2300 tons, indicating a shift towards physical assets as a hedge against financial instability [23][26] - The U.S. is facing challenges in its manufacturing sector due to reliance on Chinese rare earth supplies, which are critical for high-end manufacturing, showcasing the interconnectedness of financial and industrial strategies [34][36] Group 3 - The narrative suggests that the U.S. is attempting to maintain its financial hegemony through rule modifications, while China is focusing on accumulating physical resources, indicating a potential shift in global economic power dynamics [28][40][41] - The article posits that the future will not only be about currency competition but also about the battle for physical resources, with gold and rare earths emerging as new hard currencies [43]

转自：新华财经 宝城期货表示，美元走弱和对美联储降息的预期回暖是推动金价反弹的直接动力。市场认为，无论谁执 掌美联储，美国维持相对宽松货币环境的长期倾向可能难以根本扭转，这为金价提供了深层支撑。地缘 政治方面，美伊会谈降低了突发军事冲突的风险，但仍维持了紧张局势，这使得黄金的避险需求从脉冲 式驱动转变为更持久的支撑。中长期看涨黄金的逻辑（如全球央行购金、去美元化）并未改变，但短期 市场可能仍处于高波动盘整期，5000美元成为黄金新的多空博弈焦点。临近春节假期，国内提保叠加海 外波动，节前资金驱动或减弱。 东证期货表示，金价震荡收涨表现偏强，得益于美元指数的大幅走弱。市场关注伊朗局势进展，仍然存 在一定避险情绪，美国1月非农就业报告也即将公布，目前市场对3月降息预期约为20%，后续经济数据 关注度增加，短期货币政策缺乏增量利多。国内春节假期将至，资金节前减仓，预计贵金属整体走势震 荡。 银河期货表示，近日市场情绪回暖，美股现V字反弹，美元走弱，金银价格相应从此前的悲观情绪中逐 步恢复并反弹。另外，中国央行再度增加黄金储备，美国财长贝森特称此前金价的下跌主要由投机性抛 售驱动，以及市场传言国内商业银行可能减少对美 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary's comments blaming Chinese traders for the volatility in the global gold market highlight a deeper issue: the U.S. has lost control over gold pricing, while China's significant gold reserves have become a key factor in this shift [1][3][12]. Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The global gold price recently experienced extreme fluctuations, with a drop from $5,600, marking the largest decline in nearly a decade, leaving analysts bewildered [3]. - The U.S. has historically dominated gold pricing, but recent events indicate a shift in power towards China, which has been steadily accumulating gold reserves [1][5][12]. Group 2: China's Gold Accumulation - As of January 2026, China's gold reserves reached 2,307.57 tons, equivalent to 74.19 million ounces, with an increase of 40,000 ounces in January alone [5][6]. - Unlike other countries that may only account for gold purchases, China has physically transported its gold back to the country, ensuring tangible assets are held domestically [5][6]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - China's strategy involves not just accumulating gold but also establishing a global gold storage and delivery network, aiming to create a new pricing benchmark in Shanghai and challenge Western dominance in gold pricing [7][10]. - The growing trend of countries accumulating gold reflects a loss of trust in the U.S. dollar, as nations seek to secure their financial stability against potential U.S. economic instability [9][12]. Group 4: Global Financial Landscape - The global central banks' gold holdings have surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds for the first time in nearly 30 years, indicating a shift in confidence from the dollar to gold as a stable asset [12]. - The U.S. dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has been declining, reaching a low of 56.92% in Q3 2025, suggesting a growing trend of de-dollarization among nations [9][12]. Group 5: Future Outlook - While the U.S. dollar remains a major global currency, its credibility and pricing power are diminishing, with the trend of countries seeking alternatives to the dollar becoming increasingly evident [13][14]. - China's gold reserves serve as a dual insurance policy for financial security and a means to enhance its bargaining power in international markets [11][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Chinese yuan has returned to an appreciation trend, with the USD/CNY midpoint reaching a new low since May 2023 at 6.9523, approaching the critical level of 6.95 [1][10]. - The appreciation of the yuan began to accelerate in December last year, with a monthly increase of approximately 900 pips, followed by an additional 500 pips in January [2]. - The yuan's appreciation characteristics can be summarized as "self-driven," where the yuan gains momentum when the US dollar index declines, and experiences limited adjustments when the index rises [4][6]. Group 2 - The USD/CNY midpoint has been on a downward trend for eight consecutive months since the peak of the trade war in April last year, returning to a trajectory that aligns with market appreciation rates [5]. - There is a consensus among enterprises to adjust their currency exchange strategies flexibly, moving away from fixed points to follow market trends [7]. - Potential risks before and after the Spring Festival include supply-demand imbalances due to pre-holiday settlement pressures, with the possibility of the USD/CNY rate dropping to the 6.9 level [8]. Group 3 - Key data releases, including January's non-farm payrolls and CPI, could catalyze market movements, especially with the upcoming long Spring Festival holiday, which may increase volatility [8]. - The article notes that the longest Spring Festival holiday in history, lasting nine days, could yield a carry return of 50 pips, leading to speculative trading that may amplify market fluctuations [8][10]. - The article concludes that the appreciation of the yuan may not be over before the Spring Festival, and that adjusting exchange rates at higher levels is a reasonable strategy [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and caution is advised [6][7]. - The domestic economy is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. The valuation of domestic assets is low, and the market sentiment has warmed up. The volatility center of stock index futures is expected to gradually move up, and previous long positions can be held [9][10]. - The global trade - financial environment is complex. Gold is favored for its allocation and hedging value, but the recent sharp rise has led to high speculative sentiment. The market volatility of precious metals is expected to increase significantly, and long positions should be liquidated for observation [11][12]. - The supply - demand pattern of steel products is weak. The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils may continue to oscillate weakly. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weak, and the futures may continue to oscillate in the short term. Investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks and manage positions carefully [15]. - The coke and coking coal futures may continue to oscillate in the medium term. Investors can look for low - level buying opportunities and manage positions carefully [17]. - The ferro - alloy market has an overall surplus, but the cost has a certain bottom - support. After a decline, investors can consider long positions in the low - level range [19]. - The negotiation between the US and Iran is complex, and geopolitical risks remain. The capital is still bullish on crude oil, and the rebound of crude oil is expected to continue. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the main crude oil contract [20][21][22]. - The supply of fuel oil in Singapore is tightening, and the cost - end crude oil is rebounding, so the fuel oil price has room to rise. Investors can focus on long - position opportunities in the main fuel oil contract [23][24]. - As the Spring Festival approaches, the demand for polyolefins will shrink significantly, and pre - festival cautious operation is recommended [25][26]. - The synthetic rubber market may oscillate strongly. Attention should be paid to the resumption progress of logistics and infrastructure after the Lantern Festival and the inventory reduction rate of tire enterprises [27][28][29]. - The natural rubber market is in an oscillating trend. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, positions should be controlled [30][31]. - The PVC market may oscillate strongly. The key to price trends and inventory reduction lies in the post - Spring Festival demand recovery [32][33][34]. - The urea market may oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to Indian tenders, domestic policies, and post - festival demand recovery [35]. - The PX market may oscillate and adjust in the short term. Cautious participation is recommended, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and fundamentals [36][37]. - The PTA market may oscillate in the short term. It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in January and February. Cautious operation is recommended, and attention should be paid to oil price changes [38]. - The ethylene glycol market may maintain an oscillating bottom - building pattern in the short term. Cautious operation is recommended, and attention should be paid to port inventory and supply changes [39][40]. - The short - fiber market mainly trades based on the cost - end logic before the Spring Festival. Cautious observation is recommended, and attention should be paid to cost changes and downstream pre - festival stocking [41]. - The bottle - chip market is expected to follow the cost - end trend. Cautious participation is recommended before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance devices [42][43]. - The soda ash market is in a slack season, and cautious treatment is still required [44]. - The glass market is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival. Attention should be paid to the risk of returning to the fundamentals [45][46][47]. - The caustic soda market has significant seasonal characteristics. Although the cost is expected to rise, the fundamentals of the middle and lower reaches have not improved significantly, so cautious treatment is required [49][50]. - The pulp market is expected to have limited fluctuations before the Spring Festival due to weak support [51]. - The lithium carbonate market has strong support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may increase, and risk control should be noted [52][53]. - The copper price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals [54][55]. - The aluminum price may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market [56][57][58]. - The zinc price will enter an adjustment period as market sentiment cools and zinc ingot inventory accumulates [59][60]. - The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may oscillate weakly [61][62]. - The tin price has support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the uncertainty of US policies, and risk control should be noted [63][64]. - The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [65]. - For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, observation is advisable after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][67]. - For palm oil, long - position opportunities after pullbacks can be considered [68][69]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [70][71][72]. - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Pre - festival observation is recommended [73][74][75]. - The sugar market is expected to be weak in the medium term [76][77][78]. - The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term. Pre - festival observation is recommended, and long - position operations can be considered in batches after pullbacks [79][80]. - For live pigs, pre - festival observation is recommended due to the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [80][81]. - For eggs, pre - festival temporary observation is recommended due to the high supply and the end of pre - festival stocking [82][83]. - The corn and corn starch market: Corn is expected to face supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and corn starch may follow the corn market. Cautious observation is recommended [84][85][86]. - The log market has weak future demand expectations, and attention should be paid to foreign quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [87][88][89]. Summary by Directory Pulp - The previous trading day, the main 2605 contract closed at 5,200 yuan/ton, down 0.99%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, the terminal demand stagnated, and the market lacked trading basis. The price is expected to have limited fluctuations before the Spring Festival [51]. Carbonate Lithium - The previous trading day, the main carbonate lithium contract rose 3.55% to 137,000 yuan/ton. The supply is in a tight balance, the consumption end is improving, and the social inventory is gradually decreasing. The price has strong support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may increase [52][53]. Copper - The previous trading day, the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 102,450 yuan/ton, up 0.93%. Due to weakening market sentiment and fundamentals, the copper price may be weakly adjusted before the Spring Festival [54][55]. Aluminum - The previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,625 yuan/ton, up 0.17%; the alumina main contract closed at 2,862 yuan/ton, down 0.46%. The alumina is bearish, and the aluminum price may be under pressure as speculative funds leave the market [56][57][58]. Zinc - The previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 24,490 yuan/ton, down 0.39%. The zinc market has a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the price will enter an adjustment period [59][60]. Lead - The previous trading day, the Shanghai lead main contract closed at 16,665 yuan/ton, up 0.6%. The lead market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price may oscillate weakly [61][62]. Tin - The previous trading day, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 4.18% to 385,140 yuan/ton. The supply - demand is tight, the price has support at the bottom, but short - term fluctuations may intensify due to the uncertainty of US policies [63][64]. Nickel - The previous trading day, the Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.91% to 134,820 yuan/ton. The nickel market is in an oversupply pattern, and attention should be paid to relevant Indonesian policies [65]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 0.33% to 2,729 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract rose 0.07% to 8,114 yuan/ton. For soybean meal, long - position opportunities in the low - cost support range can be considered; for soybean oil, observation is advisable after the price leaves the low - cost range [66][67]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil rose. The market expects the inventory to decline in January. For palm oil, long - position opportunities after pullbacks can be considered [68][69]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The Canadian rapeseed rose. For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, temporary observation is recommended [70][71][72]. Cotton - The previous trading day, the domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated. The cotton price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term, but there is pressure on the domestic market in the short term. Pre - festival observation is recommended [73][74][75]. Sugar - The previous trading day, the Zhengzhou sugar rebounded slightly. The sugar market is expected to be weak in the medium term [76][77][78]. Apple - The previous trading day, the domestic apple futures oscillated. The apple price is expected to be strong in the medium and long term. Pre - festival observation is recommended, and long - position operations can be considered in batches after pullbacks [79][80]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the main live - pig contract fell 0.69% to 11,565 yuan/ton. Pre - festival observation is recommended due to the large supply pressure after the Spring Festival [80][81]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the main egg contract rose 0.03% to 2,909 yuan/500 kg. Pre - festival temporary observation is recommended due to the high supply and the end of pre - festival stocking [82][83]. Corn and Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract fell 0.18% to 2,265 yuan/ton; the corn starch main contract rose 0.28% to 2,538 yuan/ton. Corn is expected to face supply pressure after the Spring Festival, and corn starch may follow the corn market. Cautious observation is recommended [84][85][86]. Logs - The previous trading day, the main 2603 contract closed at 775.0 yuan/ton, down 1.90%. The log market has weak future demand expectations, and attention should be paid to foreign quotes, holiday progress, and shipping dynamics [87][88][89].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Bullish on stock indices in the medium - to - long - term with a strategy of buying on dips; expect government bonds to move in a range [1][6] - **Black building materials**: Short - term trading for coking coal, range trading for rebar, buying on dips for glass [1][6] - **Non - ferrous metals**: General traders are advised to reduce trading positions before the holiday, while hedgers are recommended to increase hedging coverage for copper; strengthen observation for aluminum; wait - and - see for nickel; range trading for tin, gold, and silver; expect lithium carbonate to move in a range [1][10] - **Energy and chemicals**: Range trading for PVC, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol; temporary wait - and - see for caustic soda and soda ash; expect polyolefins to be weakly volatile [1][20] - **Cotton textile industry chain**: Expect cotton and cotton yarn to adjust in a range, apples and jujubes to move in a range [1][29] - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Short - term supply - demand game for hogs, with a strategy of selling on rallies for off - season contracts; sell on rallies for hedging post - festival contracts of eggs; short - term cautious about chasing high prices for corn, and grain holders can wait for rallies to sell for hedging; expect soybean meal to be mainly volatile in the short term, with the M2603 contract paying attention to the performance at the 3030 level; expect oils and fats to be volatile at high levels in the short term, and recommend buying on pullbacks [1][31] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their fundamentals, market sentiment, and macro - economic factors. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, inventory, and policy to analyze the price trends of different commodities and gives corresponding investment strategies [1][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Stock indices**: Bullish in the medium - to - long - term, expected to be volatile and stronger. Overseas rebounds and reduced liquidity shock disturbances may drive stock indices to move in this way. It is recommended to buy on dips [1][6] - **Government bonds**: Expected to move in a range. Although institutions may have a demand to hold bonds during the holiday, the rebound of the TL2603 contract was blocked, and there are uncertainties after the holiday [6] Black building materials - **Double - coking coal**: Expected to move in a range, with short - term trading recommended. The coal market has short - term fluctuations, but the price increase is not sustainable due to weak demand and other factors [7][8] - **Rebar**: Expected to move in a range. The price is currently at a low static valuation, and the recent weakness is due to weakened cost support. It is recommended to trade with a light position before the holiday [8] - **Glass**: Expected to move in a range with a bullish bias. There are industry rumors, and although there is pressure above, the price is at a relatively low level again. It is recommended to buy on dips [9][10] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. The recent sharp decline is due to macro - level panic. Although there are uncertainties, it may stabilize in a range after risk release. Traders are advised to reduce positions, and hedgers to increase coverage [11][12] - **Aluminum**: Expected to be volatile at a high level. Supply is increasing, while demand is weakening. It is recommended to strengthen observation and reduce positions before the holiday [13] - **Nickel**: Expected to move in a range. Although there is positive news, the fundamentals are weak. It is recommended to wait and see [15] - **Tin**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tight, and consumption is in a recovery stage. It is recommended to conduct range trading [16][17] - **Silver and gold**: Expected to move in a range. Affected by factors such as the nomination of the Fed chairman and economic data, the medium - term price center is rising. It is recommended to conduct range trading and pay attention to relevant economic data [17][18] - **Lithium carbonate**: Expected to move in a range. Supply and demand are both changing, and it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of mine - end disturbances [19] Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: Expected to be volatile at a low level in a wide range. The current supply - demand situation is weak, but there are opportunities for industrial upgrading in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices [21] - **Caustic soda**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Demand is weak, and supply is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [22] - **Styrene**: Expected to move in a range. There is support for inventory reduction, but the valuation is high. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices and pay attention to cost and supply - demand changes [23] - **Rubber**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is tightening, and demand is under pressure. It is recommended to conduct range trading [23] - **Urea**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to pay attention to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [24][25] - **Methanol**: Expected to move in a range. Supply is decreasing, and demand is weak. It is affected by geopolitical and port factors [25] - **Polyolefins**: Expected to be weakly volatile. Supply is high, and demand is weakening. It is recommended to sell on rallies and pay attention to downstream demand and inventory [26][28] - **Soda ash**: It is recommended to wait and see. Supply is expected to shrink, and there is cost support. The price may have limited downward space [28] Cotton textile industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: Expected to adjust in a range. Although there is short - term pressure, the long - term outlook is optimistic [29] - **Apples and jujubes**: Expected to move in a range. The market for apples in production areas is stable, and the price of jujubes is determined by quality [29][31] Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Hogs**: Expected to build a bottom in a range. In the short - term, there is a supply - demand game, and it is recommended to sell on rallies for off - season contracts. In the long - term, pay attention to capacity reduction [31] - **Eggs**: Expected to rebound from a low level. The supply is sufficient in the short - term, and the market will experience a grinding process in the long - term. It is recommended to be cautious about short - selling and consider hedging on rallies [33] - **Corn**: The price increase is limited. In the short - term, it is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices, and grain holders can sell on rallies for hedging. In the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [34][35] - **Soybean meal**: Expected to be volatile at a low level. Pay attention to the support at 2700 yuan/ton for the M2605 contract, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35] - **Oils and fats**: Expected to be volatile at high levels. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks and pay attention to position risks before the holiday. Different oils have different performance characteristics [36][41]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 10 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 观望 | 短期恐慌抛售暂缓，去美元化长 期趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 国内供应收缩给予铜价支撑 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 期货研究报告 品种：铜（CU） 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周黄金市场经历剧 ...

2026 年 2 月 10 日申万期货品种策略日报-黄金白银 4.美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特在接受 CNBC 采访时就劳动力市场表示，应预期就业数据会 走低，但这不应引发恐慌。哈塞特认为，鉴于人口增长缓慢但生产率增长"飙升"，较低的就业数 据仍将与高 GDP 增长保持一致。哈塞特补充称，所谓的均衡就业增长率（即每月为保持失业率稳定 所需的就业增长幅度）"远低于"前总统乔·拜登执政时期的水平。哈塞特关于劳动力数据的评论 推动美国国债价格上扬。哈塞特还表示，GDP 增长"非常强劲"，预计到年底增长率将达到 4.0%， 全年整体增长率为 3.0%，并将去年第一季度的负增长归咎于拜登政府。 评 论 及 策 略 贵金属延续反弹。此前贵金属巨震，主要受美联储主席提名和资金踩踏两方面因素影响：1 月 30 日 特朗普宣布提名凯文·沃什为下一任联储主席，沃什的传统鹰派立场以及缩表主张，导致降息预期 降温，同时市场对美联储独立性担忧缓解，带动美元指数明显回升。1 月以来贵金属快速上涨，波 动率已处于高位，沃什获提名成为触发因素，引发大量资金获利了结。从长期角度来看，去美元化、 地缘风险、央行购金等支撑因素并未发生逆转，我 ...

4、中国人民银行召开2026年支付结算工作会议。会议要求，2026年支付结算工作要紧密围绕" 十五五"规划和金融强国建设目标，推动现代化支付体系高质量发展。加快建设人民币跨境支付 体系，推进跨境支付互联互通，推动跨境支付体系多元化、多层次发展。严格实施支付机构穿透 式监管和支付业务功能监管，充分发挥行政、自律互补作用，塑造合规致远的行业健康生态。常 态长效做好优化支付服务工作，扎实推进支付普惠，提供便捷安全的支付服务。提升支付系统服 务质效，以创新推动行业提质升级。 评 论 及 策 略 铂钯维持看多基调，长期核心逻辑未改，但短期受技术性回调、美联储人事变动等扰动，震 荡加剧。截至2026年2月2日，NYMEX铂、钯价自1月末以来分别回调21.5%、16.9%，核心扰动为特 朗普提名前美联储理事凯文·沃什为下任美联储主席。沃什政策立场偏鸽但不及预期，其提名宣 布后美元短线走强拖累铂钯，且提名需参议院确认，进程及后续政策独立性仍存不确定性，短期 货币政策预期博弈持续。宏观上，鲍威尔司法调查仍动摇美元信用，全球央行购金潮延续，中国 央行连续14个月增持、波兰央行购金计划落地，去美元化下铂钯储备价值凸显；格陵兰岛地缘 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that China Hongqiao (01378) is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 186.75 billion, 252.99 billion, and 271.76 billion yuan for the years 2025-2027, respectively, with a target price of 45.58 HKD based on a 16x PE for 2026 [1] - The estimated net profit for 2025 is projected to be between 170.0 billion and 200.0 billion yuan, with adjustments made to the 2024 net profit figure to 172.28 billion yuan due to a significant asset restructuring involving the acquisition of Shandong Hongtuo Industrial Co., Ltd. [2] - The production cost of electrolytic aluminum has decreased, leading to a significant expansion in enterprise profits, with the average production cost at 15,747.31 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 149.18 yuan/ton, and an industry average profit of 8,295.19 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2,266.98 yuan/ton [3] Group 2 - The electrolytic aluminum market is entering a new cycle, with historical price highs driven by a weakening dollar and geopolitical factors, leading to fluctuations in aluminum prices [4] - The overall electrolytic aluminum production capacity in China is expected to grow from 43.76 million tons to 45.15 million tons from 2021 to 2025, with a tightening of new capacity control due to the 45 million ton capacity "ceiling" and "dual carbon" goals [5]