Core Viewpoint - The recent unilateral sanctions imposed by the U.S. aim to directly target Iran while also delivering precise strikes against China and Russia, attempting to force global alignment through trade tariffs [1] Trade Data Summary - In 2024, trade between China and Iran is projected to reach $13.37 billion, with China exporting $8.93 billion in essential goods and importing $4.44 billion primarily in energy and minerals [3] - Non-oil trade between China and Iran has also been significant, exceeding $30.4 billion in the first 11 months of 2025, with China being Iran's largest trading partner, accounting for over 30% of its total exports [3] - The trade between Russia and Iran is expected to reach $4.8 billion in 2024, marking a 16.2% year-on-year increase, with an additional 8% growth in the first three quarters of 2025 [3] Impact on China - The 25% tariff will primarily impact China's exports to the U.S., which are mainly machinery and electrical products with an average profit margin of less than 5%, leading to increased export costs [5] - However, China has already initiated currency settlement and "oil-for-infrastructure" models with Iran, mitigating risks associated with dollar transactions [5] - The trade volume between China and Iran represents only 2% of China's total trade with the U.S., allowing China to adjust its supply chain and expand into ASEAN markets to offset potential losses [5] Impact on Russia - The sanctions may accelerate cooperation between Russia and Iran, as their trade is primarily settled in rubles and rials, minimizing the impact of the U.S. dollar system [7] - Both countries are working towards a free trade agreement within the Eurasian Economic Union, aiming to increase their trade volume to $10 billion [7] - The sanctions will not disrupt the energy complementarity between Russia and Iran, as Russia can leverage Iran to access Middle Eastern energy routes while providing nuclear technology and military support to Iran [7] Consequences of U.S. Actions - The sanctions are likely to accelerate the de-dollarization process, with 95% of trade between China and Russia already settled in local currencies, making barter trade and local currency settlements more common among the three countries [7] - The unilateral sanctions may undermine U.S. international credibility, as many countries are likely to reject alignment with U.S. policies, with a Pew survey indicating that over half of the populations in 19 countries lack confidence in U.S. handling of international affairs [7] - The sanctions could lead to increased global oil prices, as Iran exports 1.4 million barrels of oil daily and Russia exports 7.4 million barrels, potentially disrupting global energy supply and exacerbating inflation in the U.S. [9]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's announcement of a 25% punitive tariff on all countries engaging in trade with Iran, emphasizing the strategic ambiguity and potential implications for global trade dynamics [1][3][10]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The punitive tariffs are aimed at countries with "commercial ties" to Iran, creating uncertainty for nations like India and Turkey, which are already managing complex supply chains [5][7]. - This "long-arm jurisdiction" approach simplifies global supply chains into a binary choice, pressuring countries to align with U.S. policies or face tariffs [7][12]. Group 2: U.S.-Iran Trade Dynamics - The significant trade volume between China and Iran is viewed as a challenge to U.S. interests, with the U.S. aiming to disrupt this relationship to reinforce its geopolitical strategy in the Asia-Pacific region [9][10]. - The tariffs could impose hidden costs on Chinese goods, creating a perception that products from China are "tainted" if they are linked to Iranian trade [12][18]. Group 3: Political Context - The timing of the tariff announcement coincides with legal scrutiny over Trump's use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, suggesting a strategy to create a "national security crisis" to bolster his authority [14][16]. - The article posits that Trump's aggressive tariff strategy may backfire, leading to a shift away from dollar dependence and the establishment of alternative economic systems among emerging markets [25][27]. Group 4: Global Economic Response - Countries like Iran have developed mechanisms to circumvent U.S. dollar dominance, including expanding the use of the yuan and barter systems, which could insulate them from U.S. sanctions [21][23]. - The article warns that Trump's tariff strategy may inadvertently accelerate the formation of a parallel economic system that excludes U.S. participation, potentially undermining the established international order [25][27].

地区市场方面，亚洲成为多元化配置核心目的地。在全球"去美元化"趋势下，美元走弱将提升亚洲货币 吸引力，叠加汇率稳定、行业潜力等优势，星展维持亚洲市场看多评级。 核心资产配置上，科技板块成为关注焦点。邓志坚明确，当前科技板块虽有估值压力，但未形成实质泡 沫，相较于2000年互联网泡沫时期，当前科技企业盈利扎实、业务可持续，且投资者更趋理性、风险对 冲工具丰富。建议聚焦具备核心竞争力、盈利稳定的中美优质科技标的，尤其看好A、港股上市科技 股。 医疗板块，星展持续看好医疗板块，核心聚焦两大方向：一是制药与生物科技，借助人工智能等科技手 段，企业研发成本有效降低、研发效率显著提升、研发周期缩短，细胞冷藏等细分技术领域正加速发 展，为行业增长注入新动力。二是医疗设备，全球老龄化趋势下，国际社会目标为90%的老年人提供优 质医疗设施服务，但当前医疗设施供给缺口巨大，为医疗设备企业及医疗REITs带来广阔市场空间。 近日，星展银行（中国）高级投资策略师邓志坚在"2026年一季度投资策略展望"专题活动上，对全球资 产配置、核心行业及地区市场机遇作出全面展望。 2025年全球市场呈现显著分化，美股下半年持续走强屡创新高，港股、 ...

Group 1 - The core concern is the threat from the Trump administration to investigate Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, raising worries about the Fed's independence, which led to a significant increase in gold prices, reaching record highs before stabilizing [1][4] - Gold prices experienced a 2% increase in the previous trading day, settling around $4,585 per ounce, while the US dollar weakened and US Treasury yields fell across the board [1][4] - The market is anticipating the latest US CPI report, with expectations of a 0.3% month-over-month increase in core CPI and a slight rise in the year-over-year rate from 2.6% to 2.7% [1][4] Group 2 - Following the release of the US non-farm payroll data, the market is betting that the Federal Reserve will pause interest rate cuts for a longer period, with traders estimating a 45% chance of a rate cut in April and a higher likelihood in June [2][5] - Despite economic growth, persistent inflation concerns continue to solidify gold's role as a safe-haven asset, with one-year inflation expectations remaining at 4.2% and five-year expectations rising to 3.4% [2][5] Group 3 - Short-term reactions to the CPI report may lead to a technical pullback in gold prices if the CPI exceeds expectations, but this is seen as profit-taking rather than a fundamental shift [3][6] - The fundamental drivers for gold prices include central bank purchases under "de-dollarization" and global geopolitical risks, suggesting that any price pullbacks may be temporary [3][6] - Regardless of the CPI report's outcome, the mid-term narrative of falling inflation, economic soft landing, potential Fed rate cuts by mid-year, and a structural bull market for gold is unlikely to change [3][6]

【机构观点】 【黄金期货最新行情】 数据显示，1月13日上海黄金现货价格报价1027.39元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1027.18元/克）升水 0.21元/克。 美国司法部已就美联储总部翻修相关事宜，对美联储主席鲍威尔启动刑事调查。鲍威尔对此回应称，此 举史无前例，应结合特朗普政府对美联储的持续威胁这一背景来看待，目的是就降息问题进一步向他施 压。 当地时间1月12日下午，美国总统特朗普发文称，任何与伊朗进行商业往来的国家，其与美国的所有商 业往来都将面临25%的关税。该命令即日起生效。 | 1月13日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1027.18 | 1.01% | 197421 | 103633 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 上一个交易日COMEX黄金期货涨2.40%报4608.80美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨7.33%报85.16美元/盎 司。当前地缘局势持续紧张，美国方面联储新任主席提名人公布在即，全面关税面临最高法院裁决；市 场不确定性加剧。 ...

Group 1 - The current trading price of silver is $85.74 per ounce, with a daily opening at $85.16 and a high of $86.02, while the lowest price reached $83.40 [1][2] - The U.S. dollar index is trading around 98.951, indicating a stable position in the market [1] - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December is anticipated to be released, which may impact market dynamics [1] Group 2 - The trend of de-dollarization is being accelerated by U.S. policies and rhetoric, particularly during the Trump administration, which has led to a reassessment of economic dependence on the U.S. by other countries [2] - Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" strategy aims to reduce the U.S. trade deficit but has resulted in countries seeking alternatives to the dollar for international trade and investment [2] - The global partners' response to U.S. pressure has led to defensive measures that inadvertently promote the de-dollarization process [2] Group 3 - Silver prices have shown a downward trend in early trading, attempting to recover previous gains while indicating a potential for bullish momentum [3] - A breakthrough above the $86.00 level could lead to resistance at $86.50, with further potential to reach $87.00 [4] - Conversely, if silver falls below $85.50, the next support level would be $85.00, followed by a recent cycle high of $83.75 reached on December 29 [4]

小李观察到，在这场变局中，人民币迎来了提升国际地位的重要机遇，但破局之路并非坦途。 这场货币格局的重构会给普通人和各国经济带来怎样的影响？人民币又该凭借什么在变局中找准方向、 实现突破？这两个问题值得深入探讨。 2026年的全球金融市场，正被一场货币变局悄然席卷。 美元作为长期主导全球的货币，信用危机信号不断升级，国际金价飙升、各国纷纷减持美元资产，全球 去美元化浪潮愈演愈烈。 美元信用危机 2026年美元信用危机的升级早已不是隐秘的信号，而是体现在全球金融市场的多个维度。 最直观的便是美国居高不下的债务压力，政府债务规模已达到38万亿美元，每年仅利息支出就超过1万 亿美元。 这意味着美国每赚5块钱财政收入，就有1块钱要用来还债务利息，这样的债务负担让市场对美元的信心 持续动摇。 美元的信用支撑也在不断弱化，曾经美元被称为"美金"，有黄金作为背书；后来依托石油贸易形成"石 油美元"体系，靠石油背书；如今只能依赖美国政府的信用，而不断扩大的财政赤字和激进的货币政 策，让这份信用越来越脆弱。 国际货币基金组织的数据显示，美元在全球外汇储备中的占比已连续超10个季度低于60%，2025年第三 季度更是跌至56.92 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent $4 billion military purchase by Saudi Arabia from Pakistan for the JF-17 Thunder fighter jets signifies a shift in military procurement dynamics, challenging the traditional dominance of the U.S. in the arms market and indicating a potential decline in U.S. dollar hegemony [2][25][44]. Military Procurement Dynamics - Saudi Arabia has historically relied on U.S. F-15 jets, often facing limitations in performance and upgrade options due to U.S. restrictions [4][10]. - The JF-17 Block 3, equipped with advanced radar and missile systems, offers comparable performance to U.S. jets at a better price point, making it an attractive alternative for Saudi Arabia [6][9][12]. Financial Transactions and Currency Implications - The transaction involves a novel financing method where $2 billion in loans is converted into advance payments for the aircraft, circumventing the U.S. dollar and SWIFT system [18][20]. - The payment structure includes using local currencies and Saudi oil as collateral, further undermining dollar dominance in international trade [20][22]. Geopolitical Implications - This military deal is not just a procurement but a strategic move for Saudi Arabia to regain defense autonomy and reduce reliance on U.S. security guarantees [31][33]. - The collaboration between Saudi Arabia and Pakistan reflects a broader trend where countries are seeking alternatives to U.S. military supplies, potentially reshaping global military alliances and trade practices [36][41]. Future Outlook - The success of the JF-17 in this deal may lead to increased sales and recognition for Pakistan in the international arms market, enhancing its geopolitical standing [39][46]. - The evolving landscape suggests that more countries may follow Saudi Arabia's lead, further eroding U.S. influence in global military procurement [36][46][49].

对美联储利率前景有何影响？ 继上周美国非农报告后，市场今晚迎来美国最新CPI报告，普遍预计12月核心CPI环比增长0.3%，核心年率增速从11月的2.6%小幅回升至2.7%。本次数据恰 逢美国传统假期购物季，关于假期购物，可能提振整体消费数据。 另一干扰因素是此前美国政府停摆可能造成统计偏差，核心商品或拉动通胀全面加速，但非通胀压力实际上升所致，主要原因是11月数据因政府停摆的统计 偏差而被技术性压低。因此，这份"反弹"报告的实际指引意义有限，关键在于观察剔除食品能源后的服务类通胀（如住房、医疗）是否真正放缓。 如果CPI显著高于预期：市场将担心美联储降息时点大幅延后，利率敏感型板块（如科技、房地产）可能面临压力，从而考验财报季的乐观情绪。 数据如何影响美股？ 黄金将如何反应？ 黄金在周一亚市跳空高开直接测试4600美元的新纪录高位，若CPI强于预期，金价可能因"降息预期降温"而出现短线获利了结。但需注意，黄金与传统宏观 数据的关联性在减弱。若CPI温和，则为金价进一步上涨扫清了一个障碍。 这份报告是美联储1月利率会议前最重要的数据，在上周五非农公布后，目前市场已基本排除了1月降息的可能性。高盛的基准预测认为 ...

阅读须知：本文内容所有信息和数据，均为作者查阅官方信息和网络已知数据整合解析，旨 在让读者更清晰了解相应信息，如有数据错误或观点有误，请文明评论，作者积极改正！ 美国欠全世界超38万亿美元的债，却没人敢逼它还，甚至还得祈祷它活得长长久久。这种看似"倒立"的 秩序，其实早在几百年前就埋下了伏笔。 （创作不易，一篇文章需要作者查阅多方资料，整合分析、总结，望大家理解） 美国这个国家，就像是一家印刷接盘游戏门票的公司，只进不出。这套逻辑真正战力爆表的拐点，是布 雷顿森林体系。 通过布雷顿森林体系，美元绑定黄金，35美元兑1盎司金，全世界买卖必须得用美元。但是这体系很快 就被美国自己亲手砸了。因为美国陷入越战，钱花得跟长流水一样，怎么办？直接加速印钞！ 印到最后，法国戴高乐实在受不了，一船一船地开去换黄金，美国直接崩了。1971年，尼克松一纸签 令："黄金不兑了。" 1944年，美元上位：美元不是货币，是武器。 因为它立刻找来新的锚，石油。美国凭借超级军事力量，说服沙特建立"石油美元"，自此，全世界只要 买油，就得用美元。这一步，才是真正的金融绝杀。 美国之所以能"靠刷卡活着"，靠的是一整套以美元与美债为核心的全球金 ...