黄金再创新高。 巴克莱银行策略师则在周日的最新报告中表示，相对于美元和美国国债，黄金价格似乎没有被高估；考虑到美联储可能失去独立性的风险性质，黄金价格 应该包含一定程度的美联储相关溢价。 华联期货认为，从9月美联储议息会议来看失业率和通胀预测，相比6月，9月对2025年失业率预测不变，调低2026和2027年失业率；对2025年通胀预测不 变，调高2026年通胀预测；对2025年及其后经济预测调高，从预测来看，后续降息次数不多，黄金利好空间或受限，但黄金长期利好逻辑仍在，包括美元 走弱以及全球政治经济不稳带来的央行购金，黄金继续上涨的观点不变。 COMEX黄金盘中亦刷新历史纪录，最高至3840.4美元/盎司。 今年以来，黄金价格震荡上涨，持续刷新历史纪录。中信建投研报认为，8月底以来，黄金打破今年5月之后的震荡格局出现趋势性上行，通过拆解三大需 求的变化，大致判断本轮价格新高的资金驱动仍是金融投资参与者（ETF市场）。 中信建投研报显示，2024年下半年以来，全球ETF需求进入补库阶段，但主导的买盘力量出现多次切换，反映市场定价主线的切换。今年6—8月，西方市 场重新主导ETF流入，直接映射下半年黄金的宏观定 ...

分析人士指出，近期，有色板块有多个"利好"因素刺激，其中包括行业稳增长工作方案出炉、美联储降息预期 升温、全球第二大铜矿因泥石流事故暂停生产、刚果（金）钴出口禁令延长等。 有色股，继续活跃！ 最近几个交易日，有色金属板块持续上行。9月30日，该板块再度走强，截至券商中国记者发稿时，该板块涨 幅超过3%，铜、钴、锂、贵金属等方向领涨，江西铜业、锡业股份、盛屯矿业等多股涨停。午后，中国中冶 也放量涨停。 有色板块再度走强 今日，在A股市场上，有色金属板块高开高走， 截至券商中国记者发稿时，该板块涨幅达到3.26%。其中，江 西铜业、锡业股份、精艺股份、盛屯矿业、中国中冶涨停，华友钴业涨超9%，北方铜业涨近8%，永兴材料、 豫光金铅、云南铜业等涨超7%。 Freeport McMoRan（自由港）确认其印尼Grasberg铜矿因事故影响，预计2025年第三季度铜销量将较此前指引 减少约4%，第四季度铜矿仅少量产出和销售； 2026年Grasberg铜矿受损部分将逐步重启恢复生产，预计2026 年矿山铜产量将较原指引的77万吨下修35%至50万吨；2027年Grasberg铜矿目标恢复到事故前的产量水平。银 河证券指 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The non-ferrous metal sector has seen a significant upward trend, with a rise of over 3% as of September 30, driven by strong performances in copper, cobalt, lithium, and precious metals [1][3] - Key stocks such as Jiangxi Copper, Xiyu Co., and Shengtun Mining have reached their daily limit up, indicating robust market activity [1][3] Group 2: Stimulating Factors - Several favorable factors have contributed to the recent strength in the non-ferrous metal sector, including the release of the "Non-Ferrous Metal Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" by multiple government departments [3] - The plan emphasizes the need for a scientific layout of projects in alumina, copper smelting, and lithium carbonate, aiming to avoid redundant low-level construction and enhance investment effectiveness [3] - The suspension of production at the Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia due to a landslide has raised global copper price expectations, with LME copper prices increasing by over 4% in the last five trading days [4] Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices have surged, with a year-to-date increase of over 47%, and current prices nearing $3,870 per ounce [5][6] - The precious metals market is expected to maintain a strong upward trend, driven by Federal Reserve policy, geopolitical risks, and physical demand, particularly as the traditional consumption peak season approaches in October [6][7] Group 4: Cobalt and Lithium Outlook - The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo until October 15 is anticipated to create a significant supply gap, with projections indicating that cobalt exports may only reach 44% of 2024 levels by 2026 [7] - Lithium prices are expected to remain stable due to tight supply-demand conditions, influenced by the approval progress of lithium mines in Jiangxi and strategic discussions regarding lithium resources in the U.S. [7]

当前，"去美元化"趋势、各国央行增持黄金储备以及地缘格局碎片化等宏观叙事逻辑持续发酵。展望后 市，根据CMEFedWatch工具预测，年内大概率还将迎来两次降息；技术面上，此前一轮上涨虽遇前期 压力位出现回调，但未跌破关键支撑位，且各项指标已逐步回归常态区间，表明金价上方仍存上行空 间。 今日周二（9月30日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于880附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报878.38元/ 克，涨幅1.94%，最高触及880.00元/克，最低下探865.08元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 自9月份起，黄金市场呈现出震荡上行的态势。截至9月26日收盘数据显示，国内现货市场上纯度为 99.99%的黄金价格已达852.02元/克，较月初累计攀升58.86元/克，对应涨幅达7.42%。此番涨势背后， 宏观因素支撑显著：就业数据走弱与温和通胀环境促使美联储按预期实施25个基点的降息举措，有效释 放了市场流动性；与此同时，全球债务规模的持续扩张加剧了市场对于偿债能力的担忧情绪，加之特朗 普政府加征关税政策及中东、欧洲地区地缘政治紧张局势升级，共同催生了强烈的避 ...

Group 1: Black Industry - Investment Rating: Adjustment - Core View: After the National Day, the trading focus will gradually shift to reality. The supply - demand patterns of iron ore, coal - coke, and steel products face challenges, while glass has short - term sentiment - driven fluctuations and long - term industry adjustment pressures [2] - Directory Summary: - Iron Ore: Overseas supply is rising, and although demand is currently okay, the supply - demand pattern is weakening. The main iron ore futures price has declined from its high. The 2601 contract is in high - level adjustment [2] - Coal - Coke: Coal supply is abundant, and the difficulty of price support for coking coal will increase. Coke price hikes are expected to be implemented, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not obvious. The coke market follows coking coal, and attention should be paid to anti - involution policies [2] - Rolled Steel and Rebar: The supply - demand pattern of rebar is average, with weak downstream performance. The steel price is under pressure again. To reach the normal seasonal inventory level, production needs to decline by about 10000 tons. The 2601 contract is in weak shock operation [2] - Glass: The industry was called to raise prices, which may stimulate pre - holiday restocking. In the long run, the real estate industry is in adjustment. Attention should be paid to production and policy changes during the holiday [2] Group 2: Financial Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, rebound, etc.) - Core View: The market is affected by policies and economic data. The stock index market has different trends, and the bond market is under pressure. Gold shows a relatively strong shock trend [3][4] - Directory Summary: - Stock Index Futures/Options: The stock index market has different trends. The Politburo meeting emphasized high - quality development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. The new policy financial tools may boost investment. It is recommended to control risk preferences [3][4] - Treasury Bonds: The yield of 10 - year treasury bonds has risen, and the market interest rate has fluctuated. Treasury bond bulls should hold lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing. Factors such as central bank gold purchases, currency credit issues, and geopolitical risks support the price. It is expected to be in a relatively strong shock [4] Group 3: Light Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including range shock, consolidation, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of different products in the light industry are different, and the price trends are also diverse [5] - Directory Summary: - Logs: The supply is tightening, the cost support is increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected to be in range shock [5] - Pulp: The cost support is increasing, but the demand is not strong. It is expected to be in bottom - level consolidation [5] - Offset Paper: The production is relatively stable, the demand is expected to improve, but the profit is low. It is expected to be in shock [5] Group 4: Oil and Fat Industry - Investment Rating: Wide - range shock, shock - bearish - Core View: The supply - demand relationships of oils and fats are complex, affected by factors such as production, policy, and inventory. The supply of meal products is relatively loose [5] - Directory Summary: - Oils: The supply pressure of palm oil is increasing, but there are also factors such as production reduction and policy changes. The supply of domestic soybean oil is abundant. It is expected that oils will be in wide - range shock [5] - Meal Products: The supply of domestic soybean meal is loose, and the export of US soybeans is weak. It is expected that meal products will be in shock - bearish trend [5] Group 5: Agricultural Products - Investment Rating: Shock - strong, shock - weak - Core View: The supply of live pigs is abundant, and the demand has short - term fluctuations. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] - Directory Summary: - Live Pigs: The average trading weight is declining, the demand for pre - holiday stocking is increasing, but the sales pressure is also rising. The price is expected to be in short - term weak shock [6] Group 6: Soft Commodities and Polyester Industry - Investment Rating: Various (including shock, wait - and - see, etc.) - Core View: The supply - demand situations of soft commodities and polyester products are complex, and the price trends are different [7][8] - Directory Summary: - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, the demand is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be in wide - range shock [8] - PX: There are potential supply risks, and the supply - demand is decreasing. The price follows oil prices [8] - PTA: The cost support may weaken, and the supply - demand is marginally weakening. The price follows cost fluctuations [8] - MEG: The supply pressure is increasing, and the short - term price is affected by cost fluctuations [8] - PR: The market trading is expected to be dull, and the price is expected to be stable [8] - PF: The cost support may weaken, and the market may have narrow - range consolidation [8]

现在在来看黄金当下的长周期涨幅对去对比早期的三条长周期蛮牛，是不是明显有点手腕跟大腿比了？你看我们自己的央妈都连续第十个月增持黄金了，加 上香港黄金交易所最近也发布了新闻稿，要在香港拟建黄金储存库，计划在未来的三年储存2000吨为目标，以此同时美联储也已经开始进入降息周期了，这 个降息周期原则上不会这次降了25个基点，下个季度就加回25个基点。现在甚至下一轮议息已经提前被市场高亢有望到会提升降息50个基点。所以啊，黄金 是会站稳3500-3800美元/盎司区间继续北上，还是回调3800美元/盎司下方展开新的一轮空头开始南下，看完第一金陈生分析后琢磨琢磨。 香港第一金PPLI平台市场部负责人陈生温馨提示任何投资均有风险，以上黄金涨跌逻辑分析仅供参考，不作投资建议！ 香港第一金现货黄金暴涨 那么第三头黄金蛮牛，就是从2018年到现在2025年的上半年，国际金价从回落到1100美元每盎司附近开始猛涨，一直涨到直接突破3000美元每盎司上方，撩 起这轮黄金多头火苗的依然还是非美国莫属了，自老特上任美国总统后，从2018年开始上演了美国对全球发起的贸易战，关税战，导致全球国家经济及货币 宽松，变相也让其国家对美元体系的 ...

新华财经上海9月30日电（葛佳明） 由于美国政府可能"关门"，避险需求成为市场主旋律，黄金和白银 日前再度强势上涨，现货黄金价格突破每盎司3850美元，创下历史新高，现货白银触及每盎司47美元， 续刷2011年5月来新高，今年迄今涨幅超过62%。 方正中期期货研究院宏观及贵金属市场分析师梁海宽表示，本轮黄金白银牛市的上涨逻辑已脱离之前20 年的传统框架，从金属属性驱动转向货币属性驱动。 "全球债务的高企以及美元信仰的动摇，使得金银成为对冲信用货币体系风险的终极选择。"梁海宽认 为，年初以来全球主要经济体长端国债收益率均出现不受控制的上行，全球债务风险已来到临近点，金 银的货币属性均开始显现。 贵金属后续仍有上行空间 尽管美国通胀前景仍面临不确定性，但美国货币政策逐步宽松的趋势或已确立，叠加市场对2026年美联 储主席鲍威尔任期结束后联储可能更宽松的预期，长期对美国经济滞胀的隐忧仍在，黄金具有长期配置 价值。 2025年第三季度，贵金属延续着强劲上行动能，金价与银价呈现齐头并进的上涨态势。多位分析师均表 示，对于四季度而言，在货币体系多元化的大背景下，黄金作为避险资产和价值储藏手段的重要性将进 一步提升。 金银 ...

现在的联合国就像一件过时的西装，已经装不下新兴国家蓬勃发展的身躯。拉夫罗夫这个生动比喻，道出了当前国际权力格局与二战后期建立的旧秩序之间 的深刻矛盾。他特别强调，必须纠正非洲大陆遭受的历史不公，这番表态赢得了现场非洲代表的热烈掌声。 但改革之路从来不会平坦。就在俄罗斯表态后不到24小时，美国商务部长卢特尼克就放出狠话：某些国家需要被好好修理！虽然没点名，但谁都知道他剑指 印度和巴西。这位以强硬著称的部长甚至扬言：搞定印度只是时间问题。与此同时，华盛顿的关税大棒已经重重落下——印度出口美国的石油被课以50%重 税，导致皮革、化工等行业订单雪崩；巴西更惨，一半输美商品都被加了关税，只有飞机等少数产品幸免。 联合国改革风云：印度巴西入常之路遭遇美国关税大棒 大家好，我是吕璐。最近国际舞台上正在上演一场精彩大戏——俄罗斯公开力挺印度和巴西入常，而美国则挥舞关税大棒强势阻挠。今天我们就来聊聊这场 牵动全球格局的安理会扩容之争。 在刚刚结束的联合国大会上，俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫的一席话激起千层浪。他掷地有声地指出：安理会改革刻不容缓！并明确表态支持印度和巴西成为新的常 任理事国。作为南亚霸主，印度13亿人口的体量和快速发展的 ...

Group 1 - The rare metals sector is experiencing strong growth, with Huayou Cobalt leading the gains, and rare metals ETFs rising over 3% [1] - Rare metals ETFs have shown significant performance, with year-to-date increases of 62.84% to 65.59% across various funds [2] - Huayou Cobalt has signed supply agreements with LGES for a total of approximately 76,000 tons of ternary precursor products and 88,000 tons of ternary materials from 2026 to 2030, which is expected to positively impact its financial performance [3][4] Group 2 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments have released a plan to promote the application of high-end products in emerging industries, which may benefit the rare metals sector [4] - Zhongyou Securities is optimistic about the performance of precious metals, copper, aluminum, lithium, and uranium, indicating a favorable outlook for the rare metals market [5] - The cobalt market is expected to remain tight in the long term, with prices of intermediate products projected to rise gradually [6]

2025年09月30日 星期二 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 铝 | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率持续上升。 | | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.07%，收于 | | | | 20730 | 元/吨，国内 | 0-3 | 月差-25 | 元/吨，LME | | | | 价格 2665 | 美元/吨。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 交易策略：节前下游积极备货，需求回暖趋势延续，下游开工持续上升，去库拐点初现，电解铝价格下方支 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 撑较强，预计延续震荡偏强走势，建议逢低做多。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | ...