美联储主席鲍威尔：美联储的预测已转向预期经济增长放缓、通胀水平上升。 ...

美联储主席鲍威尔：经济似乎正以1.5%至2%的速度增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's recent statement did not present any surprising elements, with adjustments to inflation and economic growth forecasts being largely anticipated by the market [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve raised its inflation expectations due to conservative considerations regarding the potential impact of tariffs [1] - The economic growth forecast was slightly downgraded, aligning with market expectations and not leading to a directional change [1] - The focus now shifts to the details provided by Chairman Powell during the press conference, particularly his responses and body language [1]

以旧换新政策在促进商品消费方面已经取得阶段性成果，考虑到耐用品置换周期，后续政策刺激效应或 将逐渐趋缓。要进一步促进国内消费，还需要进一步提振就业与居民收入，以及扭转偏低的通胀预期。 促进服务业就业与消费，特别是教育、健康、育儿等消费升级趋势下居民有意愿增加支出的领域，可能 是进一步促进消费的突破口。 证券时报记者：自去年9月24日以来，中国陆续出台一揽子化债政策与促增长举措，今年政治局会议前 后，又落地特别国债发行、央行降准降息等政策工具。从当前经济运行节奏看，未来还有哪些政策利好 值得关注？ 近日，国家统计局发布的5月经济数据超市场预期，以旧换新政策在促消费方面取得了阶段性成果。对 此，德意志银行等多家国际大行纷纷上调对中国经济增长的预测，并认为经济基本面的改善支持人民币 汇率走强。 为此，证券时报记者专访了德银中国首席经济学家熊奕。他就中国经济增长预期、人民币汇率、促消费 效果、政策发力方向等话题分享了观点。他认为，促进服务业就业和消费，特别是教育、健康、育儿等 消费升级趋势下居民有意愿增加支出的领域，可能是进一步促进消费的突破口。 证券时报记者：近日，国家统计局发布了5月经济数据，规模以上工业增加值同 ...

美联储FOMC经济预期：经济增长放缓，失业率略有上升，通胀率也略高于三月份的预期。 ...

Core Insights - The U.S. residential construction activity has dropped to its lowest level since the pandemic began, influenced by high inventory of unsold homes and rising mortgage rates [1] - New housing starts fell by 9.8% month-over-month in May, with an annualized rate of 1.26 million units, below economists' expectations of 1.35 million units [1] - The construction of multi-family homes has decreased nearly 30% from its peak in 2023, while single-family home starts slightly increased to 924,000 units but remain low for the year [1] Construction Permits - The issuance of building permits in May fell to an annualized rate of 1.39 million units, reaching a five-year low, with single-family home permits at their lowest level since April 2023 [2] Mortgage Rates and Builder Confidence - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained high at 6.84%, contributing to a decline in builder confidence, which has hit its lowest point since 2022 [3] - The percentage of builders implementing price cuts has risen to 37%, the highest level since 2022, indicating increased pressure on margins [3] Regional Analysis - In the South, the largest residential construction market, housing starts decreased by 10.5%, with similar declines in the Midwest, while the Northeast saw a significant drop due to a decline in multi-family construction [4] - The West region was the only area to experience growth in housing starts [4] Market Dynamics - Builders are increasing marketing expenditures to attract customers, leading to shrinking profit margins [4] - Developers are offering mortgage rate subsidies, but consumer expectations for discounts continue to rise [4] - The National Association of Home Builders anticipates that single-family home starts will continue to decline as developers slow project progress to manage inventory [4]

尽管英国5月份的通胀水平与4月份基本齐平，但从细项来看仍有值得关注的地方。5月份，英国的食品 价格明显上涨，从4月份的3.4%上涨至5月份的4.4%。与此同时，一些英国家居生活的基本生活品，如 巧克力等，也出现了明显上涨，这推动了英国居民的生活负担。"从4月份开始，英国居民需要支付更高 的能源、水、网络等服务价格，同时，新增的商业成本也持续渗透到经济中。这使得英国5月份的总体 通胀率维持在3.4%，令消费者担忧的是，随着食品通胀的持续上升，英国居民每周购物价格再次上 涨，达到自去年2月以来的最高水平。"英国零售商协会（British Retail Consortium)的研究总监Kris Hamer说。 对于英国现阶段的通胀水平和未来几个月的发展趋势，市场机构目前普遍的看法是，英国通胀还将持续 维持在高位一段时间。"今天的通胀数据几乎没有什么意外，因为随着能源价格上限的上调，以及其他 一些公共服务价格的上涨，加上就业成本的抬高，在这些价格因素上涨的传导下，英国通胀率持续处于 央行目标区间之外。由于这些因素影响，预计未来几个月英国通胀率仍将维持高位。"智库英国董事学 会 (Institute of Direct ...

欧洲央行管委森特诺：如果经济增长未能实现，通胀率将难以达到2%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Russian economy is expected to see a GDP growth of 1% to 2% by 2025, indicating a gradual recovery [1] Economic Forecast - The Russian ruble is considered overvalued, with a reasonable exchange rate projected to be between 90 to 95 rubles per dollar [1] - There is a significant likelihood that the benchmark interest rate will decrease from the current 20% to 17% by the end of this year [1] - For a sustainable economic recovery, key interest rates need to be maintained between 12% and 14% [1]

Group 1 - The UK inflation rate remains at its highest level in over a year, with persistent price pressures causing concern [1] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year growth rate fell from a revised 3.5% in April to 3.4% in May, slightly exceeding economists' expectations of 3.3% [1] - The core inflation rate in the services sector decreased from 5.4% to 4.7%, yet it remains within a historically high range [1] Group 2 - The UK Office for National Statistics acknowledged a data error regarding vehicle consumption tax, correcting April's inflation rate to 3.4% instead of the previously reported 3.5% [1] - The May price trends exhibited structural differentiation, with falling costs for airfares and fuel being offset by rising food prices, particularly for chocolate and meat, as well as furniture and household goods [1] - Financial markets reacted sensitively to the inflation data, with the British pound rising 0.3% to a session high of 1.3462 USD [2] Group 3 - Market pricing indicates that investors still expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates by 25 basis points within the year, although there is disagreement on the timing [2] - The decision-making process faces multiple challenges, including signs of economic slowdown and a cooling labor market, alongside unexpectedly sticky service sector inflation [2] - Despite widespread expectations that the Bank of England will maintain interest rates at the upcoming meeting on June 19, there remains uncertainty about the initiation of a loosening cycle in August [2]