农产品周报 | 2025-06-22 内外糖价止跌企稳，郑棉期价延续震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，截止周五收盘，棉花2509合约13495元/吨，环比上周持平。现货方面，新疆地区棉花现货价格14764 元/吨，环比下跌21元/吨。现货基差CF09+1269，环比下跌21。全国棉花现货加权均价14879元/吨，环比上涨 37元/吨，现货基差CF09+1384，环比上涨37。 国际方面，据USDA，截止6月12日当周，2024/25美陆地棉周度签约1.89万吨，周增38%，较四周平均水平降23%， 同比降56%；其中越南签约1.12万吨，土耳其签约0.36万吨，中国取消0.13万吨；2025/26年度美陆地棉周度签 约6.23万吨，同比增长146%，其中越南1.79万吨、萨尔瓦多1.64万吨、洪都拉斯1.04万吨；2024/25美陆地棉周 度装运4.64万吨，环比减13%，较四周平均水平降24%，同比增3%，其中越南装运1.12万吨，土耳其装运0.95万 吨。 国内方面，据海关统计数据，2025年5月我国棉花进口量4万吨，环比（6万吨）减少2万吨，减幅33.9%；同比（26 万吨）减少22万吨，减 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May 2025, the total bond custody scale increased by 216.33 billion yuan month-on-month, 55.57 billion yuan more than in April, mainly due to the significant rise in the net financing scale of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds. The custody increments of local bonds, interbank certificates of deposit (CDs), and credit bonds decreased slightly month-on-month [3][6]. - The profit-taking sentiment after the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate cut in May and the increase in government bond supply pressure were important factors affecting institutional behavior. Non-bank institutions' profit-taking sentiment heated up, and commercial banks had to take on more primary supply, increasing their liability pressure, which requires the central bank to maintain a loose liquidity environment [3][8]. - The bond market leverage ratio in May was about 107.1%, basically the same as in April and still significantly lower than before January this year. The leverage ratio of commercial banks increased slightly, while that of non-bank institutions decreased and remained near a three-year low [3][37]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bonds' Net Financing Soared while Credit Bonds and CDs Slightly Declined, and the Bond Custody Increment Rose Significantly in May - The total bond custody scale increased by 216.33 billion yuan month-on-month in May, 55.57 billion yuan more than in April, mainly due to the significant rise in the net financing scale of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds. The custody increments of local bonds, interbank CDs, and credit bonds decreased slightly month-on-month [3][6]. - Specifically, for interest rate bonds, the treasury bond custody increment rose by 64.2 billion yuan to 90.8 billion yuan; the local bond custody increment decreased by 18.46 billion yuan to 52.23 billion yuan; the policy financial bond custody increment rose by 26.9 billion yuan to 28.21 billion yuan. For credit bonds, the medium-term note (MTN) custody increment decreased by 3.63 billion yuan to 7.37 billion yuan, and the short-term financing bill (STFB) custody volume changed from an increase of 3.36 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 4.31 billion yuan. The custody scales of enterprise bonds and private placement notes (PPNs) continued to decline, but the decline narrowed [6]. 2. Non-bank Profit-taking Sentiment Heated up in May, and the Supply Pressure Increased, Leading to a Significant Increase in Banks' Bond Purchases and Higher Liability Pressure - **General Funds**: The custody increment decreased by 34.3 billion yuan to 81.26 billion yuan. They reduced their purchases of CDs and treasury bonds, sold STFBs and policy financial bonds, but increased their purchases of MTNs and local bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced their allocation of bonds, especially CDs, and switched to reducing their allocation of treasury bonds and policy financial bonds [11]. - **Securities Companies**: The bond custody volume changed from an increase of 1.124 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 1.261 billion yuan. They sold treasury bonds and policy financial bonds and reduced their sales of CDs. Relative to the stock, they also reduced their allocation of bonds [16]. - **Insurance Companies**: The bond custody volume changed from an increase of 99 million yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 120 million yuan. They sold local bonds, but reduced their sales of financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House and increased their purchases of treasury bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced their allocation of local bonds [19]. - **Overseas Institutions**: The bond custody volume changed from an increase of 9.54 billion yuan in the previous month to a decrease of 9.63 billion yuan. They sold CDs, policy financial bonds, and commercial bank bonds and significantly reduced their purchases of treasury bonds. Relative to the stock, they reduced their allocation of bonds [23]. - **Other Institutions**: The decline in bond custody volume narrowed from 74.29 billion yuan in the previous month to 19.27 billion yuan. They reduced their sales of local bonds and treasury bonds, but sold policy financial bonds and reduced their purchases of CDs. The narrowing of the decline was mainly due to the decrease in the net reverse repurchase volume of the central bank [25]. - **Commercial Banks**: The bond custody increment increased by 90.74 billion yuan to 167.8 billion yuan, reaching a new high since July 2022. They increased their purchases of treasury bonds to a record high, switched to buying policy financial bonds, and reduced their sales of CDs. However, the custody increment of local bonds decreased significantly due to the narrowing of the net reverse repurchase volume. Relative to the stock, they increased their allocation of bonds, mainly interest rate bonds [28]. - **Credit Unions**: The bond custody increment increased by 539 million yuan to 544 million yuan. They switched to buying treasury bonds and policy financial bonds, but slightly reduced their purchases of local bonds, CDs, and financial bonds on the Shanghai Clearing House. Relative to the stock, they increased their allocation of bonds, mainly treasury bonds and local bonds [32][35]. 3. Non-bank Leverage Ratio Declined Again in May and Remained Near a Three-year Low - The bond market leverage ratio in May was about 107.1%, basically the same as in April and still significantly lower than before January this year. The leverage ratio of commercial banks increased by 0.2 percentage points to 103.3%, but was still lower than before 2025. The leverage ratio of non-bank institutions decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 116.4% and remained near a three-year low [37]. - Among non-bank institutions, the leverage ratio of securities companies decreased by 6.7 percentage points to 207.4%, and that of insurance and non-legal person products decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 113.2%, both remaining near recent lows. In the general funds, the repurchase balance of money market funds increased significantly, while that of non-money products of fund companies increased limitedly, and their absolute levels were still low. The repurchase balances of insurance companies and other products slightly declined from high levels, and that of wealth management products continued to decline slightly near a historical low [37].

| | | 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月20日 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 王凌辉 Z0019938 | | | | | | | 员知 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月19日 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 6月18日 张跃 张跌幅 | | | | | | | | 现价 | 江苏一级 | | 8400 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 8350 50 0.60% | | ...

Group 1 - The macro environment is improving, with growth sectors becoming market focal points, and the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its upward trend due to multiple supportive factors [1] - Despite uncertainties in the short-term US-China trade negotiations affecting risk appetite and profit expectations, positive factors are accumulating to support further upward movement in the Hong Kong market [1] - The mid-term perspective indicates that policy efforts will drive fundamental recovery, and with continuous improvement in liquidity, the valuation center of Hong Kong stocks may rise, particularly in the technology sector benefiting from accelerated AI applications [1] Group 2 - In terms of industry selection, high dividend sectors and essential consumer goods can serve as defensive positions amid expected market volatility in the third quarter [2] - The third quarter may provide good opportunities for positioning, especially if the trend of expansion and increased allocation in Hong Kong stocks is established [2] - There is potential for increasing allocations in technology and consumer sectors, focusing on recovery opportunities in the second half of the real estate cycle, including internet consumption, pharmaceuticals, and mass consumer goods [2] Group 3 - Relevant ETFs include the Hang Seng Internet ETF (513330) for internet AI, the Hang Seng Pharmaceutical ETF (159892) for innovative pharmaceuticals, and the Hong Kong Consumer ETF (513230) for new consumption paradigms [3]

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

2025-06-19甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡 ...

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 王浅辉 Z0019938 2025年6月19日 | | | | | 原田 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 8350 30 现价 江苏一级 | | 8320 | 0.36% | | 期价 Y2509 7680 ୧୧ | | 7614 | 0.87% | | 基差 Y2509 670 -36 | | 706 | -5.10% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏6月 09+250 -10 | | 09+260 | - | | 仓单 17552 0 | | 17552 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | 6月18日 涨跌 | | 6月17日 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 8800 -10 | | 8810 | -0.11% | | 期价 P2509 8350 ୧୧ | | 8284 | 0.80% | | 其差 P2509 450 -76 | | 526 | -14.45% | | 现货墓差报价 09+320 ...

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [3] Core View - Cotton prices are expected to continue oscillating in the short term due to a mix of positive and negative factors, with limited upside potential for continuous rebound [3] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,525 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,762 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 14,862 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton. As of June 15, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 85%, the squaring rate was 19%, the boll - setting rate was 3%, and the good - to - excellent rate was 48% [1] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton futures prices oscillated narrowly. Macro - level positive signals from Sino - US trade negotiations initially boosted domestic cotton prices, but uncertainty led to price retracement. The June USDA supply - demand report showed a decrease in global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, with a decline in ending stocks. US cotton产区 has seen improved drought conditions due to more rainfall. Domestically, commercial cotton inventories are de - stocking rapidly, but new - season cotton planting area is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [6] Core View - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices mainly follow the trend of raw sugar, with a medium - to - long - term weakening trend [6] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,691 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton (+0.42%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,030 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,865 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. In the second half of May, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 5.47% year - on - year, the sugar production ratio increased, and sugar production increased by 8.86% year - on - year [3][4] - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou sugar futures prices oscillated and closed higher. Raw sugar prices dropped to a nearly four - year low due to the expected increase in production in the 25/26 season in Brazil, India, and Thailand. Domestically, favorable sales data supported spot prices, but with tightened imports of syrup and premixes, the supply - demand gap needs to be filled by out - of - quota imports. As raw sugar prices weakened, import profits emerged, increasing supply pressure expectations [5][6] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [8] Core View - Pulp prices are expected to continue oscillating at a low level in the short term due to pessimistic terminal demand expectations and a lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8] Summary by Related Catalogs - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2507 contract was 5,220 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,120 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,250 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [6] - **Market Analysis**: Pulp futures prices oscillated weakly. On the supply side, Arauco's long - term contract prices have been continuously lowered, and domestic pulp imports increased in May, with high port inventories. On the demand side, European demand has not improved significantly, and domestic downstream demand is weak, with the paper - making industry in the traditional off - season from June to July [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-06-18甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 4 检修状况 甲醇2509： 1、基本面：港口方面，上周华东、华南港口甲醇价格维持坚挺但涨幅有限，受船龄限制政策持续影响，港口市场尚存 支撑，同时中美贸易谈判进展及全球贸易预期改善，叠加地缘政治因素推高油价，共同推动期现货价格上行，且基差较 上周走强，不过价格上涨后，现货商谈趋于谨慎。内地方面，周初西北CTO工厂甲醇外采，以及当前甲醇价格已处于底 部空间部分投机需求增加，产区主要工厂竞拍溢价成交，上游工厂去库存节奏加快。另外港口走强也在一定程度上提振 业者心态，贸易商谨慎做空，场内低价货源难寻，销区下游接货也适度走高。但同时因传统下游需求多步入高温淡季， 以及当前国内甲醇开工仍在高位，供需基本面支撑利好仍显不足，买方对 ...

受地缘局势影响，国际尿素市场出口预期发生变化，这驱动国内尿素价格连续两个交易日跳涨。17日截至收盘时，尿素主力合约以3.99%的涨幅，强势领涨 当天商品市场。以色列和伊朗新一轮冲突不仅推动国际油价重上70美元／桶水平，也波及了国际尿素市场：中东尿素大颗粒价格跳涨至接近400美元／吨， 无疑增强了出口市场的吸引力。同时，印度新一轮招标和埃及化肥厂装置停车等，也奠定了尿素市场短期看涨氛围。加上国内尿素价格前期连续走低带来部 分逢低买盘，内外因共振推动尿素价格低位强势反弹。不过，分析机构也提示，尿素供需整体宽松局面未改，价格反弹仍面临基本面现实的制约。 尿素继续拉涨近4% 原木盘中触及800元／方关口创一个月新高 原木期价近两周整体呈现企稳回升态势。尤其是昨日大幅拉涨之后，17日继续惯性冲高。盘中，原木主力合约更是一度重回800元／立方米上方，触及约一 个月新高，尾盘涨幅虽有所回落，但仍以1.54%的涨幅实现"三连阳"。市场分析认为，虽然短期原木供需矛盾并不明显，但交割逻辑和进口成本成为期价的 有力支撑。据业内测算，山东地区交割成本约在786-807.6元／立方米，这使得期货近月主力合约前期价格水平存在一定贴水空间 ...