Group 1: Solar Industry - The solar industry is experiencing a dual bottom in fundamentals and market sentiment, with expectations for supply-side reforms strengthening [9][11]. - In Q2, domestic solar installations are expected to increase significantly, driven by a surge in demand, with a total of 197.9 GW added in the first five months of 2025, representing a 150% year-on-year growth [15][19]. - The profitability across different segments of the solar supply chain is expected to diverge, with silicon material prices under pressure while silicon wafers, cells, and modules benefit from price increases due to demand [13][14]. Group 2: Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is seeing a significant increase in shipments, with domestic large-scale storage demand recovering, and overall profitability remaining stable [39][44]. - In the first five months of 2025, global energy storage battery shipments reached 196.5 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 118%, driven by domestic demand and favorable tariff conditions [54][60]. - The domestic energy storage market is expected to maintain high growth, with cumulative installations reaching 13.4 GW/32.1 GWh in the first five months of 2025, reflecting a 57% year-on-year increase [54][55]. Group 3: Policy and Market Dynamics - Recent government policies are focused on addressing "involution" in competition, with measures aimed at balancing supply and demand and promoting industry self-discipline [32][34]. - The solar and energy storage sectors are expected to benefit from ongoing policy support, which is anticipated to enhance market stability and encourage technological advancements [38][36]. - The report highlights the importance of monitoring industry price trends, component production rates, and the timing of supply-side policy announcements as key indicators for investment opportunities [38].

Group 1: Historical Context and Comparison - The supply-side reform from 2015 to 2017 successfully reduced excess capacity in industries like coal, steel, and aluminum, leading to a significant rebound in PPI from an average of -10.5% in 2015 to a peak of 21.5% in March 2017[2] - During the same period, the profit margin in affected industries improved from a low of 2.4% in 2015 to 6.6% in early 2017, with nominal GDP growth rising from 6.6% in Q4 2015 to 11.8% in Q1 2017[2][11] - The current "anti-involution" initiative targets industries such as photovoltaics, automobiles, cement, and steel, contrasting with the previous focus on upstream traditional sectors like coal and steel[2][4] Group 2: Industry Dynamics and Challenges - The industries involved in the current "anti-involution" have a higher concentration, with leading firms in photovoltaics and automobiles holding a market share of approximately 67%, compared to 34% and 36% for coal and steel during the previous reform[3][57] - The current environment features a lower proportion of state-owned enterprises and a higher presence of private firms (60-90%) compared to the previous reform period (50-70%)[3][4] - The effectiveness of capacity reduction in the current initiative may be hampered by the relatively new capacity in the steel sector and varying profitability across industries[3][4] Group 3: Economic Implications and Future Outlook - The "anti-involution" is expected to have a milder impact on PPI compared to the supply-side reform due to differences in demand-side policies and macroeconomic conditions, with current policies primarily aimed at stabilizing the economy[4][5] - Industries with high concentration and poor profitability, such as the upstream segment of photovoltaics, may see stronger capacity reduction incentives, while more profitable sectors could face resistance[4][5] - Historical data suggests that aligning "anti-involution" policies with demand-boosting measures could enhance effectiveness, as seen in the previous reform period[5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, for individual commodities, the ratings are as follows: - Oils and Fats: Oscillating [6] - Protein Meal: Oscillating in the short - term, bullish in the long - term [7] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating and declining [8] - Live Pigs: Oscillating [10] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [11] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [15] - Cotton: Oscillating [15] - Sugar: Oscillating in the short - term, oscillating and bearish in the long - term [16] - Pulp: Oscillating [17] - Logs: Oscillating and bearish [18] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes multiple agricultural commodities. It points out that the end of the year may see the emergence of La Nina, which will boost the sentiment for long - positions in protein meal. The prices of different agricultural products are affected by various factors such as international trade policies, weather conditions, supply and demand relationships, and macro - economic environments. Different commodities show different trends in the short and long terms [1][7]. 3. Summary by Commodity Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the market was oscillating and differentiated, with palm oil leading the rise. It is expected to oscillate in the medium - term [6]. - **Logic**: Tensions in US foreign trade and good weather in US soybean - growing areas led to a decline in US soybeans on Friday, while US soybean oil was oscillating and bullish. Domestically, the three major oils were oscillating and differentiated, with palm oil being bullish. Macro - environment factors include the strengthening of the US dollar and the rise of crude oil prices. The USDA July report was relatively neutral. Overseas biodiesel demand for oils is expected to be optimistic, and domestic soybean oil inventory is rising. Palm oil is in the production - increasing season, with expected increases in both production and exports. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory is high, and the import situation needs attention [6]. Protein Meal - **View**: The end of the year may see the emergence of La Nina, boosting market sentiment for long - positions. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bullish in the long - term [7]. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybeans are growing well, but Sino - US trade frictions affect exports. Brazilian soybean exports are still high. CFTC net long positions are decreasing. Domestically, changes in tariff exemptions have hindered the import of granular meal. Supply pressure dominates the weak spot market, but concerns about Sino - US trade support the futures price. Soybean arrivals are increasing, and downstream replenishment is insufficient. In the long - run, fourth - quarter purchases are slow, and the inventory of breeding sows is increasing, indicating stable or increasing demand for soybean meal [7]. - **Outlook**: Domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the domestic futures market is stronger than the spot market. The basis is expected to weaken. Oil mills can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or fix prices at low levels. Unilateral long - positions can be established at around 2900 [2]. Corn and Starch - **View**: Traders are actively selling, and market sentiment is weak. It is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. - **Logic**: Futures prices rebounded after a sharp decline on Friday night. In the spot market, trading is active, and some deep - processing plants in the Northeast and North China have lowered their purchase prices. The cumulative auction of imported corn has a certain turnover rate. In the annual structure, imports are expected to decline, but the supply is supplemented by wheat and imported corn, and the cost of new - season corn is decreasing, resulting in weak market sentiment [9]. Live Pigs - **View**: Normal slaughtering in the middle of the month, with prices fluctuating slightly. It is expected to oscillate [10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, large pigs are being slaughtered at an accelerated pace, but the average weight has bottomed out and is rising. The planned slaughter volume in July is decreasing, and the supply pressure is temporarily low. In the medium - term, the number of newborn piglets has been increasing, indicating potential growth in the second half of the year. In the long - term, the production capacity is still high. The ratio of pork to feed is increasing, and the weight - reduction trend is blocked. In the short - term, the market is affected by macro - regulation signals, but the sustainability is questionable. In the medium - and long - term, there is supply pressure from sows and weight [10]. - **Outlook**: The expectation of supply - side reform boosts the sentiment of live - pig futures. The industry has completed a small - scale weight - reduction, and the inventory pressure of large farms has been released, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - and long - term [10]. Natural Rubber - **View**: Macro - sentiment supports rubber prices. It is expected to oscillate [11]. - **Logic**: The trading logic of natural rubber follows macro - sentiment. After a previous rally in some commodities, rubber, with relatively low valuation, was favored by funds. Currently, the market is in a strong - expectation atmosphere, and the fundamentals are stable. Supply is limited due to rain in Asian producing areas, and demand from tire enterprises has recovered [14]. Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures market is oscillating. It is expected to oscillate within a range [15]. - **Logic**: After a sharp rally last week, it returned to an oscillating state yesterday, supported by macro - factors and improved trading of butadiene. The fundamentals of butadiene have improved, with increased demand and limited supply, which also boosts the synthetic rubber market [15]. Cotton - **View**: Low inventory versus weak demand, resulting in a stalemate in cotton prices. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [15]. - **Logic**: The USDA July report was bearish, with an increase in the expected global cotton production in the 25/26 season. Demand is in the off - season, with a decline in textile mill operations and an increase in finished - product inventory. The cotton - yarn price spread is narrowing. Current commercial inventory is low, making cotton prices resistant to decline but difficult to rise. In the medium - term, new - crop production is expected to increase, suppressing the upside of the futures price [15]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a reference range of 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. Sugar - **View**: Inventory is low, but subsequent imports are expected to increase. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and be bearish in the long - term [16]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with production increases expected in major producing countries. In the short - term, Brazil's sugar production and cane crushing are lower than last year, and China's sugar sales rate is high, with low industrial inventory, supporting sugar prices. However, Brazil will enter the peak production and export season, and China's imports will increase [16]. - **Outlook**: In the long - run, sugar prices are expected to decline due to expected supply surplus. In the short - run, there are few bullish factors, and domestic sugar prices are expected to oscillate [16]. Pulp - **View**: Macro - factors dominate the trend, and pulp prices are rising within a range. It is expected to oscillate [17]. - **Logic**: Yesterday, pulp futures rose following the macro - environment. The supply and demand are weak, and the upward drive mainly comes from the macro - environment. The US dollar price is declining, overseas pulp mill inventory is high, and downstream paper is in the off - season. The futures price is relatively low, providing some support. In the medium - term, if there is inventory accumulation, pulp prices may rise in a wave - like pattern, but the increase is limited [17]. - **Outlook**: The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5150 - 5400, and the 01 contract between 5200 - 5500. Bilateral trading within the range is recommended [17]. Logs - **View**: It is difficult to rise or fall, and it is expected to oscillate and be bearish [18]. - **Logic**: The first - month delivery of logs is ongoing, and the inflow of delivery goods into the spot market has put pressure on prices. Both sellers and buyers face increased costs. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand for logs this year is stable, and the inventory - reduction pace is slow. New foreign quotes have increased, but the willingness of domestic traders to buy at the bottom is strong. The supply reduction is expected to weaken, and the spot market is at the bottom - building stage [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Polysilicon [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Stainless Steel, Tin, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Logs [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Treasury Bonds, Gold, Silver, Alumina, Nickel, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Ferrosilicon, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Corn, Pulp, Live Pigs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Rubber, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, Fertilizer, PE, PVC, Chlor - Alkali, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] Core Views - In the short term, liquidity and market sentiment are acceptable, but there are few substantial positive factors at home and abroad. With the recent significant reduction in the discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing up [1]. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Market uncertainties remain. Gold prices are expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term, and silver prices should be wary of the risk of a fall after a rise [1]. - The potential implementation of US copper tariffs may lead to a re - flow of copper from non - US regions, posing a risk of compensatory decline in Shanghai and London copper prices [1]. - High aluminum prices suppress downstream demand, while low inventories support aluminum prices, resulting in a weak oscillating trend [1]. - Domestic anti - involution policies boost the expectation of supply - side reform, leading to a stable recovery in alumina prices [1]. - Tariff disturbances are intensifying, and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the fundamentals continues to pressure zinc prices. Attention should be paid to macro uncertainties [1]. - With macro uncertainties remaining, nickel prices are oscillating. It is recommended to short on rallies in the short term, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1]. - For stainless steel futures, it is advisable to focus on short - term trading, sell on rallies for hedging, and seize the opportunity of positive basis trading. Pay attention to raw material changes and steel mill production schedules [1]. - The macro pricing of tin prices has increased, but the short - term fundamentals of supply and demand are weak, with limited driving forces. Attention should be paid to the subsequent meeting of the Manxiang mining area [1]. - For industrial silicon, the supply shows a pattern of decreasing in the north and increasing in the south. The demand for polysilicon has increased marginally, but there are expectations of production cuts later. The market sentiment is high [1]. - For polysilicon, there are expectations of supply - side reform in the photovoltaic market, and the market sentiment is high [1]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply side has not cut production, downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and factory purchases are not active. There is capital gaming [1]. - For rebar and hot - rolled coil, the strong performance of furnace materials provides valuation support, but the fundamentals of hot - rolled coil are showing marginal weakness [1]. - For iron ore, short - term production has increased, demand is acceptable, supply and demand are relatively loose, and cost support is insufficient, so prices are under pressure [1]. - For ferrosilicon, the market sentiment has improved. In the short term, supply is stable, demand is resilient, and inventory is being depleted, providing price support. However, in the medium term, supply - demand surplus makes it difficult for prices to rise [1]. - For coking coal and coke, the supply is expected to increase, direct and terminal demand is weak, and cost support is weakening. It is advisable to focus on the opportunity of futures premium for selling hedging [1]. - For palm oil and rapeseed oil, relevant reports are neutral to bearish, and short - term oscillations are expected. It is recommended to wait and see for palm oil, and rapeseed oil is bearish due to the expected entry of Australian rapeseed [1]. - For cotton, in the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the off - season, and downstream inventories are starting to accumulate, so domestic cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - For sugar, Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to be weak, it may affect Brazil's sugar - making ratio in the new crushing season and lead to higher - than - expected sugar production [1]. - For corn, there are many short - term policy disturbances. Attention should be paid to the subsequent auction volume and transaction price of imported corn and whether the aged rice auction will be implemented. The low wheat - corn price difference suppresses the upward space of corn prices [1]. - For soybean meal, the short - term inventory accumulation pressure continues to pressure the spot basis, which is expected to oscillate at a low level. The downside space of the US market is limited, and the Brazilian premium is expected to be firm. It is advisable to buy on dips [1]. - For pulp, after the macro - level positive factors, the price has risen, but the spot price has not followed up significantly, so it is not recommended to chase up [1]. - For live pigs, with the continuous recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing. The futures market has a clear expectation of sufficient inventory and a large discount to the spot price. The short - term spot price is less affected by slaughter, and the futures price remains stable [1]. - For crude oil and fuel oil, the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical situation has led the market to return to the supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and short - term strong consumption in the peak season in Europe and the US provides support [1]. - For natural rubber, the downstream demand is showing a weakening trend, the supply - side production release expectation is strong, and the inventory has increased slightly [1]. - For BR rubber, OPEC has increased production more than expected, the synthetic rubber fundamentals are under pressure, and some butadiene units are under maintenance with limited ship - cargo supply, providing certain support [1]. - For PTA, the supply has shrunk, but the crude oil price remains strong. The polyester downstream load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction, and the spot market is becoming more abundant. Due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is low [1]. - For ethylene glycol, the coal price has risen slightly, the future arrival volume is large, but the overseas supply has shrunk, and the market expects a decrease in future arrivals [1]. - For short - fiber, the number of registered warehouse receipts is small, and short - fiber factory maintenance has increased. Under the high basis, the cost is closely correlated [1]. - For styrene, the pure - benzene price has slightly declined, styrene sales are active, the device load has recovered, the styrene inventory is concentrated, and the basis has significantly weakened [1]. - For fertilizer, domestic demand is average, the summer agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the export expectation is improving in the second half of the year [1]. - For PE, the macro - sentiment is good, there are many maintenance activities, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For PVC, the price of coking coal has risen, the market sentiment is good, maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and the supply pressure has increased, so the price oscillates strongly [1]. - For chlor - alkali, the maintenance is nearly over, the spot price has fallen to a low level, the liquid - chlorine price has rebounded, the comprehensive profit has been repaired, and the number of current warehouse receipts is small. Attention should be paid to the change in liquid chlorine [1]. - For LPG, the crude - oil support is insufficient, the combustion and chemical demand are in the seasonal off - season, the spot price is oscillating downward, and the PG price is oscillating narrowly [1]. - For container shipping on the European route, there is a pattern of stable reality and weak expectation. It is expected that the freight rate will peak in mid - July and show an arc - top trend in July and August, with the peak time advancing. The subsequent weeks' shipping capacity deployment is relatively sufficient [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the steel industry is "strong - biased", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [1][2][6]. - The short - term outlook for iron ore is "sideways - strong", and the medium - term outlook is "sideways" [2][9][10]. - The short - term outlook for scrap steel is "sideways" [10]. - The short - term outlook for coke is "sideways" [10][12][13]. - The short - term outlook for coking coal is "sideways" [13]. - The short - term outlook for glass is "sideways", and the long - term view is to maintain a "sideways" view [6][14]. - The short - term outlook for soda ash is "sideways", and the long - term outlook is that the price center will decline [6][14][16]. - The short - term outlook for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is to follow the sector fluctuations, and the medium - to - long - term prices face upward pressure [16][17]. Core View of the Report - The market's optimistic expectations continue due to topics such as "anti - involution" and coal industry self - discipline. The macro - trend dominates the market during the off - season. With frequent macro - level positives and good fundamentals, short - term prices are expected to run strongly. The industry should focus on policy implementation and off - season demand performance [1][2][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Iron Element - Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased, in line with expectations. Steel mills' profitability improved slightly, and hot metal production decreased but remained at a high level year - on - year. Due to concentrated arrivals, the port inventory decreased slightly, and overall supply - demand contradictions are not prominent. With positive market sentiment and good fundamentals, the futures price is expected to fluctuate strongly [2]. Carbon Element - Some previously shut - down mines in major production areas are gradually resuming production, but there are still mines with production restrictions, and overall supply is slowly recovering. The China - Mongolia border port is closed, and the inventory in the port supervision area continues to decline. Coke producers have initiated the first price increase, but steel mills have objections to the increase, delaying the time. Downstream steel mills have good profits and are actively replenishing stocks. Coke fundamentals are healthy, with strong cost support, and the price increase is expected to be implemented soon. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [3]. Alloys Manganese - Silicon - The price of manganese ore has remained stable recently, but port inventory has increased slightly, and the cost of high - grade ore arrivals in the future is expected to decline significantly. The supply side has seen an increase in production due to improved profitability. The demand side remains resilient as the output of finished steel products remains at a relatively high level. The tender price of HBIS in July was higher than expected. The current fundamentals of silicomanganese are stable, and the futures price is expected to follow the sector fluctuations in the short term [16]. Ferrosilicon - The cost support for ferrosilicon has weakened, and the profitability in production areas has been continuously restored. The supply side is expected to increase in the future, although the current resumption of production is slow. The demand side remains resilient as steel production remains high. The current supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is healthy, and the futures price is expected to follow the sector fluctuations in the short term [6][17]. Glass - Demand is declining during the off - season, and deep - processing demand continues to weaken. Supply is increasing as there are still two production lines waiting to produce glass, and daily melting is on the rise. The upstream inventory has decreased slightly, and there are many market sentiment disturbances. With the "anti - involution" sentiment rising, the market is worried about supply - side production cuts. The futures price is expected to fluctuate [6][14]. Soda Ash - The supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. There are rumors of "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry, and the demand for heavy soda ash has flattened, with weak demand expectations. The demand for light soda ash from downstream is weak, and manufacturers are continuously reducing prices. Although sentiment affects the futures price, the long - term surplus pattern is difficult to change. It is recommended that enterprises seize the short - term positive feedback hedging opportunities [6][14].

Core Insights - The photovoltaic ETF (159857) has experienced a pullback, declining over 1% while seeing a trading volume of 116 million yuan and a turnover rate of 4.92% [3] - The fund has seen significant inflows, with a net inflow of 9.114 million yuan over the last 20 trading days, ranking first among similar products in the Shenzhen market [4][5] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" phase, with notable increases in silicon material prices, driven by regulatory requirements to sell above cost [4] Fund Performance - As of July 14, the photovoltaic ETF (159857) reached a new high in scale at 2.382 billion yuan, marking a significant increase of 76 million shares over the past week [4] - The fund recorded 36 purchase transactions and 13 redemption transactions, with a total of 36 million shares purchased and 14 million shares redeemed [4] Industry Trends - The prices of multi-crystalline silicon materials have risen significantly, with N-type re-investment material, N-type dense material, and N-type granular silicon prices increasing by 6.92%, 6.54%, and 6.27% respectively [4] - The industry is expected to see continued supply-side reforms, with a focus on eliminating low-price competition and improving profitability and valuation levels for companies [5] - The index tracked by the ETF, the CSI Photovoltaic Industry Index, is currently at a historical low valuation, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.89, indicating strong value for investors [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in silicon material prices indicates a potential turning point in the photovoltaic industry's supply-side reform, with a focus on the silicon material segment as the first to reflect changes [1][3]. Group 1: Silicon Material Price Trends - Silicon material prices have shown a continuous upward trend in July, with current average prices rising to 40-50 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 25-35% [1][2]. - The average price of various types of silicon materials in June was approximately 5% lower than in May due to demand front-loading from the current photovoltaic installation surge [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The production data for July indicates a silicon material output of 109,000 tons, which is higher than the output of silicon wafers, suggesting that the supply-demand relationship has not yet significantly improved [2]. - The acceptance of rising silicon material prices by downstream sectors remains uncertain, as current price increases are reflected more in quotes than in actual transaction prices [2]. Group 3: Government and Industry Response - The government's increased focus on combating low-price bidding and promoting high-quality development in the photovoltaic sector is expected to reshape the supply structure in the silicon material segment [3]. - The restructuring of the silicon material industry is anticipated to involve a selection process based on financial strength, cost management, and product quality among manufacturers [3].

据追风交易台消息，摩根大通在其最新研报中表示，"反内卷"利好银行业，尤其是股份制银行，可能推动净息差反弹并提升收益，但影响将较2016年供给 侧改革更温和。 今年以来，中央层面对"反内卷"密集发声。在政策支持及各行各业快速响应下，"反内卷"热度持续升温。 据新华社报道，7月1日召开的中央财经委员会第六次会议提出，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后产能有序退出，释放 国家层面"反内卷"新信号。 报告预计，在"反内卷"推动下，2026年银行业盈利有望实现8%的上行潜力，主要驱动因素为净息差回升，其中股份制银行的净盈利影响可达14%。 历史经验显示，净息差存在显著改善空间 报告表示，2016-2018年的供给侧改革成功减少了某些行业的过剩产能，推动PPI从2015年-5.2%反弹至2017年+6.3%，并与名义GDP增长正相关。 期间，MSCI中国银行指数从2016年2月至2018年1月上涨97%，银行收入随名义GDP恢复，净息差在无政策利率上调情况下反弹18个基点，不良贷款生成 率从2015年峰值开始下降。 报告预计，本轮"反内卷"的积极影响可能小于前次改革，但可能带来净息差和收入上行， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run strongly in the short - term, with an intraday view of being strongly volatile and a medium - term view of being volatile [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall reference view: strongly running [1][5] - **Core Logic**: A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. The supply side is in the peak tapping season with strong incremental expectations and large month - on - month output pressure. Downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a terminal demand off - season. Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in June, the 2509 contract of Shanghai rubber futures showed a strongly volatile trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the price slightly rising 0.87% to 14,430 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend on Tuesday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: volatile; Medium - term: volatile; Intraday: strongly volatile; Overall reference view: strongly running [1][7] - **Core Logic**: A new round of supply - side reform may boost domestic commodity futures. The operating loads of some private butadiene rubber plants in East and South China have increased slightly, driving up production and capacity utilization. Downstream demand is weak, with slowing tire production and sales growth and a terminal demand off - season. Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic new car production and sales data in June, the 2509 contract of synthetic rubber futures showed a strongly volatile trend in the overnight session on Monday, with the price slightly rising 0.22% to 11,570 yuan/ton. It is expected to maintain a strongly volatile trend on Tuesday [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Report's Core View - The methanol 2509 contract is expected to run strongly, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends being oscillatory, oscillatory, and oscillatory - bullish respectively [1][5]. - Due to factors such as increased domestic and overseas supply and weakening downstream demand, the methanol supply - demand structure is becoming looser. However, after the release of negative sentiment from the previous sharp correction and the potential new round of supply - side reform, the domestic methanol futures may maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend. The night - session of domestic methanol futures on Monday slightly rose 0.46% to 2398 yuan/ton, and the 2509 contract on Tuesday is expected to maintain an oscillatory - bullish trend [5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Change Calculation Rules - For varieties with night - trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price of the current day to calculate the price change [2]. - A decline greater than 1% is considered a fall, 0 - 1% a weak oscillation; a rise of 0 - 1% is a strong oscillation, and a rise greater than 1% is an increase [3]. - Oscillatory - bullish/weak only applies to the intraday view, not for short - term and medium - term views [4]. 3.2 Methanol Market Analysis - The continuous release of domestic methanol production capacity and the arrival of overseas shipments increase the supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand enters the off - season, leading to a looser supply - demand structure [5]. - After the previous sharp correction, negative sentiment has been released. The domestic high - level meeting's tone on governance of low - price disorderly competition and the exit of backward production capacity may bring a new round of supply - side reform, which boosts domestic commodity futures [5].