交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 展望 原油周报 (5.12-5.16) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油反复震荡，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶61.93美元，周涨2.23%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶65.33美 元，周涨2.27%；中国上海原油期货收于每桶462.5元，周跌2.10%。周初，随着中美关税战缓和，投资者对贸易前景的担忧缓和提振油价上涨。 中美两国发布联合申明称，中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，大幅降低双边关税水平。美国财政部长贝森特表示，这项降税措施将持续90天， 期间全球两大经济体将继续展开谈判。此外，美国总统特朗普在白宫宣布，美国与英国达成一项新的贸易协议， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal mining industry [4] Core Views - The coal mining market is showing signs of bottoming out after a deep adjustment, with marginal improvements in fundamentals and supportive policies indicating a potential investment opportunity [3][10] - The report highlights five factors that may help stabilize coal prices, including reduced production from some coal mines, decreased railway shipment volumes, and anticipated increases in electricity demand due to high summer temperatures [6][10] Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3,244.52 points, up 1.65%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 0.53 percentage points [2][78] - Year-to-date, thermal coal prices have decreased by 139 CNY/ton, while coking coal prices have fallen by 180 CNY/ton, with the CITIC Coal Index down 11.7% [2] Key Factors Affecting Coal Prices - The report identifies that the supply side is tightening due to safety inspections and production cuts in some coal mines, leading to a decrease in capacity utilization [6][10] - High inventory levels at ports are suppressing demand, but the report anticipates that electricity demand may rise as summer temperatures increase [6][10] Focused Analysis on Key Areas - **Thermal Coal**: The market remains weak, with supply still ample and demand primarily driven by essential needs [11][14] - **Coking Coal**: The market continues to face downward pressure, with weak demand and high inventory levels [11][37] - **Coke**: Profits are recovering, supported by steady demand from steel production [11][54] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on key coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Xinji Energy, which are expected to perform well [9][10] Industry News - Inner Mongolia has increased its coal production capacity by nearly 180 million tons per year, receiving recognition from the State Council [83] - International sea coal trade volumes have decreased by 6.7% year-on-year [84]

2025-05-19 纯碱玻璃周度报告汇总 研究员：于小栋 从业资格号：F3081787 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0019360 | | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项 目 | 备 注 | 当 期 | 环 比 | 下期 (E) | 下下期 (E) | 思 路 | | | | 总产量（万吨） | | 67.77 | -6.30 | 66.00 | 64.00 | | | | 供 应 | 重质产量（万吨） | | 36.99 | -3.80 | 36.02 | 34.93 | 检修计划延续，下旬有部分大厂加入检修；前期部分检修计划临近结 束，有部分计划执行或不及预期，供应低位水平待观察；连云港碱厂 新产能本月有望出试制品。 | | | | 轻质产量（万吨） | | 30.78 | -2.50 | 29.98 | 29.07 | | | | 进出口 | 进口（万吨） | | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 国外价格到国内暂无优势，进口价格窗口未打开。 | | | ...

氧化铝价格走势研判 20250517 从三月底全行业开工水平 9,360 万吨，到目前 8,650 万吨区间，这一变化主要 源于多方面因素。三月份初期山西奥凯达铝业和森泽铝业因高价矿或自采矿不 足开始点式减产，但大型集团未有新进展。3 月下旬信发减少进口矿使用比例， 自主调整产能；4 月下旬国有集团企业在山西和河南两大四小工厂减产；5 月 第一周山西、山东和云南工厂受波及，全行业出现较大动荡。这些因素导致国 有集团企业在现货市场上购买紧张程度爆发，从而形成当前供应偏紧状态。 氧化铝生产成本上升的原因是什么？ 摘要 • 氧化铝行业经历供应过剩到偏紧的转变，主要由于 3 月底至 5 月初期间， 山西奥凯达、森泽铝业及信发等企业陆续减产，国有集团企业也调动产能， 导致现货市场供应紧张，全行业开工水平从 9,360 万吨降至 8,650 万吨。 • 氧化铝生产成本持续上升，主要受矿石结构成本波动影响。国产矿供应紧 张导致进口矿使用增加，矿石价格从 1,460 元上涨至近 2000 元。各区域 成本差异显著，云南成本最低，广西成本较高，使用进口矿的企业成本与 山东沿海地区接近。 • 几内亚铝土矿价格下降至 70 美元/ ...

专家 - 当前时点如何看待铝土矿？20250518 摘要 • 中国国产铝土矿供应受资源禀赋、环保政策及进口矿过剩等多重因素影响， 预计未来几年供应稳定性增强，但整体增量或减量不会有显著波动。新 《自然资源法》可能提高投资热情，但短期内难大幅提升产量。 • 中国进口铝土矿市场自 2025 年起进入买方市场，供需过剩迹象明显。几 内亚企业预计增量出货，但顺达水电厂停产事件需重新评估供需平衡。尽 管如此，铝土矿价格仍处于历史高位。 • 中国铝土矿需求依赖进口，进口矿使用比例在四月份开始下降，尤其在山 西和河南地区，原因是氧化铝亏损面扩大导致减产。若亏损持续，进口矿 使用比例可能进一步降低，影响铝土矿市场。 • 铝土矿需求增量主要来自新项目库存采购，但电解铝和氧化铝产能限制了 铝土矿需求上限。广西新项目投产将提升精炼使用比例，而贵州因成本高 使用量极小，对市场影响有限。 • 铝土矿市场自 2024 年 12 月开始供应过剩，2025 年 1 月情况加剧，4 月 份过剩量达 600 万吨。尽管大部分交易为长单，现货市场过剩情况相对缓 和，但总体供应过剩量超过 1,000 万吨。 Q&A 全球铝土矿市场的供需情况如何？ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term lithium carbonate prices may stabilize due to policy expectations, but the high - inventory and oversupply situation remains unchanged. The downward trend in the cost side opens up price space, and it is expected to maintain a weak oscillation [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Viewpoint Overview - The short - term price of lithium carbonate may be affected by policy expectations and stabilize, but the high - inventory and oversupply pattern persists, and the cost decline allows for price drops, with a forecast of weak oscillation [12] 3.2 Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Global Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2025E, global lithium demand has been growing, with the global effective lithium demand reaching 142.3 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 29%. Global lithium supply has also been increasing, with the global effective lithium supply reaching 165.0 million tons in 2025E, a year - on - year increase of 13%. The global lithium market shows a trend of changing from surplus to shortage and then back to surplus, with a surplus of 22.7 million tons in 2025E, accounting for 16% of the total demand [15] 3.2.2 Domestic Balance Sheet - In 2024 - 2025, the supply and demand of domestic lithium carbonate are both increasing. In May 2025E, the total supply of lithium carbonate is expected to be 91,250 tons, and the total demand is expected to be 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [16] 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Supply and Demand - In April, the estimated total supply of lithium carbonate was 89,560 tons, and the total demand was 87,292 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 2,268 tons. In May, the estimated total supply was 91,250 tons, and the total demand was 90,421 tons, with a supply - demand difference of 829 tons [10] 3.3.2 Inventory - According to SMM data, the monthly inventory in April was 96,202 physical tons, including 45,169 physical tons of downstream inventory and 51,033 physical tons of smelter inventory. The weekly inventory this week was 131,920 physical tons, including 56,522 physical tons of smelter inventory, 41,428 physical tons of cathode factory inventory, and 33,970 physical tons of battery and trader inventory. According to Baichuan data, the lithium carbonate factory inventory was 34,785 tons [10] 3.3.3 Price Difference - On May 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.15%, the futures price was 61,800 yuan/ton, and the basis was 2,700 yuan/ton [10]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 5 月 18 日 玉米：有所回调 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 报告导读： （1） 玉米市场回顾 现货市场，5 月 16 日当周，玉米现货上涨。据汇易网统计，截至 5 月 16 日，全国玉米均价 2374.90 元/吨，较前一周 2363.53 元/吨上涨 11 元/吨。山东深加工 2400-2500 元/吨，禽料玉米 2450 元/吨， 猪料玉米 2450-2500 元/吨，河南 2440-2510 元/吨，河北 2400-2490 元/吨。黑龙江深加工干粮收购 2160-2220 元/吨，吉林深加工玉米主流收购 2200-2240 元/吨，内蒙古深加工玉米主流收购 2180-2300 元/吨。北方玉米集港价格 2260-2280 元/吨（新作挂牌），水分 14.5%，广东蛇口散船 2360-2380 元/ 吨。截至 5 月 15 日，据 Mysteel 玉米团队统计，全国 13 个省份农户售粮进度 97%，较去年同期快 3%。 全国 7 个主产省份农户售粮进度为 97%，较去年同期偏快 4%。 期货市场，5 月 16 ...

，我们来分析N650炭黑的需求走势。随着国内外橡胶、塑料、油墨、涂料等行业的持续发展，炭黑需求量逐渐增加。在橡胶工业中，炭黑是一种不可或缺 的添加剂，可以提高橡胶制品的强度、硬度和耐磨性。而随着汽车、轮胎、工程机械等行业的快速发展，橡胶制品的需求也在增加，进一步推动了炭黑市场 的需求。，随着国内消费者对环境保护的重视程度不断提高，新能源汽车的推广和应用也对橡胶制品的需求带来了新的增长点。 在塑料工业中，炭黑被广泛应用于聚乙烯、聚丙烯等塑料制品中，可以起到增加黑度、提高制品强度和耐候性的作用。随着国内塑料行业的高速发展，炭黑 的需求也有所增加。，在油墨和涂料行业中，炭黑是重要的着色剂和填料，也在增加对炭黑的需求。，各行业对炭黑的需求量在不断增加，为炭黑售价的稳 定提供了有力支撑。 针对N650炭黑售价的制定，供需平衡是关键。供应商应密切关注市场需求变化，合理安排生产计划来满足市场需求。同时，加强与下游行业的合作，建立 长期稳定的供应关系，提高供应链的效率。对于需求方来说，应及时了解市场价格变化，根据市场需求和预期走势进行采购，以降低采购成本。 ，政府的宏观调控也对炭黑售价制定起到了一定的影响。政府可以通过减少进 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market focus has shifted to the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season. Currently, multiple institutions expect increased sugar production in Brazil and India, leading to a global sugar supply surplus. In the domestic market, imports decreased in Q1, domestic sugar sales were fast, and inventory pressure was relatively light. For Zhengzhou sugar futures, due to the weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a volatile approach should be adopted [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Sugar Market Information Summary - **Thailand**: As of March 23, 2024/25, Thailand's sugar production was 9.9758 million tons, a 14.58% increase (1.2698 million tons) compared to the same period last year [4]. - **Domestic**: The sales - to - production ratio is at a high level in the same period over the years, and sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season is expected to increase slightly [5]. - **Price Information**: For Zhengzhou sugar futures, due to weak international sugar prices and insufficient domestic positive support, a volatile approach should be taken [6]. Fundamentals - **CFTC Net Long Positions**: Net long positions have changed little recently and remain at a low level in the same period over the years [7]. - **Brazil**: - By the end of April 2025/26, Brazil's cumulative sugar production was 1.58 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 38.62%. In April, exports were 1.5558 million tons, and the number of ships waiting at ports increased. Multiple institutions expect an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year. The ICE - ethanol - to - sugar price spread is 3.34, with minor fluctuations. Import profit is positive but has declined from recent highs [7][18]. - **India**: By the end of April, India's cumulative sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. Multiple institutions expect an increase in India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year [7]. - **China**: The sugar association raised China's sugar production in the 2024/25 season by 150,000 tons to 11.15 million tons. It is predicted that the sugar - crop planting area in 2025/26 will be 1,440 thousand hectares, a 3.2% increase from the previous year, and sugar production will reach 11.2 million tons. The cumulative sales - to - production ratio in April was 65.22%, the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [7]. Global Sugar Supply and Demand and Related Institutions' Forecasts - **Green Pool**: Predicts a slight global sugar supply surplus of 1.15 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. Global sugar production is expected to increase by 5.3% to 199.1 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by 0.95% to 197 million tons [11]. - **Datagro**: Predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.53 million tons in the 2025/26 crushing season. Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production is expected to reach 42.04 million tons, India's to increase from 26 million tons to 31.6 million tons, and Thailand's from 10.05 million tons to 11.18 million tons [12]. Brazil - **Production**: By the end of April, the bi - weekly sugar production in the central - southern region was 856,000 tons, and the cumulative production was 1.58 million tons [13]. - **Export**: In April, exports were 1.5558 million tons, and the number of waiting ships at ports increased [18]. - **Ethanol Situation**: The sugar - ethanol price spread is 3.34, with minor fluctuations [22]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Multiple institutions expect an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season compared to the previous year. Julio Maria Borges predicts that Brazil's sugar exports in 2025/26 will remain at 35.1 million tons, and production will increase by 5% to 46 million tons [24][26]. India - **Market**: As of the end of April 2024/25, India's sugar production was 25.695 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.33%. The number of operating sugar mills decreased by 4 to 19 compared to the same period last year, and the crushed sugar - cane volume decreased by 11.44% [27][32]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: StoneX predicts India's sugar production in 2025/26 to be 32.3 million tons, and the USDA predicts it to reach 35 million tons, a 26% increase from the revised estimate of this season [36]. Thailand - **Sugar Production**: As of March 23, 2024/25, Thailand's cumulative crushed sugar - cane volume increased by 12.2%, sugar - cane sugar content increased by 0.27%, sugar - production rate increased by 0.227%, and sugar production increased by 14.58% to 9.9758 million tons [39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Virit Viseshsinth predicts Thailand's sugar production in 2024/25 to reach 10.39 million tons, an 18% increase year - on - year [42]. United States - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 crushing season, the United States' sugar production and ending inventory are expected to decrease. Production is expected to be 9.285 million tons, and ending inventory is expected to be 1.436 million tons [43][44]. Domestic Market - **Sales**: The cumulative sales - to - production ratio is the highest in the same period in the past 25 sugar - making seasons [46]. - **Import**: In March, imports were 61,300 tons, at a low level of cumulative imports for the year [48]. - **Trade**: Import profit has declined from its high level [52]. International Sugar Market - **Net Long Positions**: CFTC fund net long positions remain at a relatively low level [56]. Zhengzhou Sugar - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Basis and warehouse receipts have reached "phased" highs [59].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.16」 豆类市场周报 研究员 ： 张昕 期货从业资格证号 F03109641 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0018457 联系电话：059586778969 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「 周度要点小结」 u 豆一： 来源：瑞达期货研究院 3 u 行情回顾：本周豆一主力2507合约上涨，收涨0.36%，报收4168元/吨。 u 行情展望：国产大豆方面，当前市场余粮有限，整体库存水平显著低于历年同期，导致各主要产区大 豆价格呈现稳中有升的走势。与此同时，下游市场采购积极性不高，国家储备大豆的竞拍投放数量明 显减少，下游加工企业采购量亦有所下降。加之近期气温回升，豆制品终端消费需求表现平淡，整体 市场处于供需两弱格局。在此背景下，大豆价格展现出一定的抗跌性，维持相对坚挺。 u 策略建议：供需双弱，观望为主。 「 周度要点小结」 u 豆二： 来源：瑞达期货研究院 4 「 周度要点小结」 u 豆粕： 5 来源：瑞达期货研究院 u 行情回顾：本周豆粕主力2509合约收平，收报2 ...