Group 1: Market Overview - The three major indices opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.06%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.08%, and ChiNext Index up 0.08% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,378.22 points with a slight increase of 0.06%, while the Shenzhen Component Index reached 10,152.55 points, up 0.08% [2] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones down 0.22% to 42,427.74 points, while the S&P 500 rose slightly by 0.01% to 5,970.81 points [3] Group 2: Industry Insights - Huatai Securities reported a 2.9% month-on-month increase in lithium battery production for June, with total battery production reaching 107.7 GWh, driven by demand from new energy vehicles and favorable export conditions [4] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) anticipates a continued recovery in the small home appliance sector, supported by trade-in policies and low base effects, leading to improved profitability for companies in this space [5] - Tianfeng Securities indicated that the bond market is likely to maintain a volatile pattern, with potential trading opportunities arising from adjustments in monetary policy and market dynamics [6] Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Huaxi Securities noted that some funds may have begun to position themselves in the technology sector, driven by positive market sentiment regarding U.S.-China trade relations, despite potential risks from fluctuating tariff policies [7][8]

Group 1 - The Zhongzheng Convertible Bond Index opened up by 0.02% [1] - Jiuzhou Convertible Bond 2 increased by 3.7% [1] - Huamao Convertible Bond rose nearly 3% [1] Group 2 - Youzu Convertible Bond and Dongshi Convertible Bond both increased by over 1% [1] - Yitian Convertible Bond and Jing 23 Convertible Bond both fell by over 1% [1]

国内宏观：求诸于内，自胜者强。 中长期来看，我国经济具有较大潜力，不过，短期经济的需求仍然需要提振。 2025 年要完成 5% 左右的增长目标，仍 需积极政策继续发力。 我们认为下半年宏观政策继续边际加码，尤其是 7 月以后。财政政策有希望继续边际加码。同时下半年或进一步全面降息。 风险提示： 国际方面，特朗普贸易政策反复变化、美联储降息幅度低于预期、市场对美国财政不可持续的担忧再次发酵；国内方面，地产尾部风险上升、居 民资产负债表修复进度不及预期。 总量 【 宏观】全球变局：锚定"确定性" 全球进入货币体系重构时代： 全球经济体系重构的根源在于信任基础的变化，基于国际关系变化的信任下降，会导致整个全球货币体系继续分化，重塑资产 价格。"去美元化"确实在缓慢进行，主要是非经济因素主导，尤其是国际关系变化、各国信任度的下降。在这个背景下，黄金的长期牛市需要站在更长历史 维度看待。 各国之间信任度变化的趋势很难改变，这也决定了本轮黄金的牛市是长期的、历史性的变化。 长期来看，只有美国经济纠偏能力还在，美元也不会崩溃。 但 中短期，需要关注美元信用可能进一步下降。 美债利率实际利率、通胀预期、名义利率存在 上行风险 ...

南华研究院 高翔（Z0016413） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 国债期货早盘高开低走，午后窄幅震荡，尾盘拉升全线收涨。资金利率依旧不高，DR隔夜收至1.4%以 下，公开市场净回笼6亿元，流动性保持充裕。 国债期货日报 2025年6月 4日 消息只是触发剂 观点：坚定持有 日内消息： 1.财政部、住房城乡建设部组织开展了2025年度中央财政支持实施城市更新行动评选，拟支持的20个城 市为（按行政区划排序）：北京、天津、唐山、包头、大连、哈尔滨、苏州、温州、芜湖、厦门、济南、 郑州、宜昌、长沙、广州、海口、宜宾、兰州、西宁、乌鲁木齐。 行情研判： 债市近期成交偏平淡，存款利率调整落地后多头缺乏足够的上冲动能，但不论是数据发布还是资金水平都 难以构成真切的利空。纠结的环境下，存单提价、风险资产的跷跷板效应等短期因素对市场的影响被放 大，今天也是如此，早盘随着A股拉升债市震荡走低，午后则因为一则谈判相关的消息再度拉升。 但从结构上来说，依旧需要思考几个问题，不论是久期中性还是现券上，今天短端都要强于长端，然而存 单依旧在提价，为什么前几天债市走弱的理由到今天突然不适用了？另外，如果 ...

证券研究报告 | 2025年06月04日 债市阿尔法追踪 5 月：债市表现分化，利率债下跌信用债上涨 主要结论：不考虑票息收益，行业维度来看，5 月各个行业信用债普遍上涨， 平均净价涨跌幅为 0.14%，各行业涨幅相对均衡，不存在明显的α。期限维 度来看，5 月 10 年期以上国债有显著的负α。次级维度来看，5 月保险公司 债存在一定的α。 5 月各品种收益率全景：5 月债市表现分化。利率债方面，5 月利率债收益率 多数上行，国债和国开债收益率平均上行 4BP，地方政府债收益率平均下行 1BP。信用债方面，几乎全部信用债品种收益率下行，其中 7 年期、隐含评 级在 AA+以下的商业银行普通债收益率平均下行 19BP，为收益率下行幅度最 大的信用债品种。 行业阿尔法追踪：行业维度来看，5 月各个行业信用债普遍上涨，平均净价 涨跌幅为 0.14%，各行业涨幅相对均衡，不存在明显的α。其中采矿业和金 融业信用债平均净价上涨 0.09%和 0.07%，为涨幅相对较小的行业。 风险提示：本报告为历史分析报告，不构成任何对市场走势的判断或建议， 使用前请仔细阅读报告末页"免责声明"。 核心观点 固定收益月报 证券分析师： ...

30年国债ETF博时(511130)多空胶着，最新报价110.95元。流动性方面，30年国债ETF博时盘中换手9.89%，成交7.56亿元。拉长时间看，截至6月3日，30年 国债ETF博时近1月日均成交23.01亿元。 2025年6月4日，国债期货午盘多数下跌。30年期主力合约跌0.09%报119.340元，10年期主力合约跌0.03%报108.635元，5年期主力合约跌0.02%报105.940元， 2年期主力合约涨0.01%报102.366元。 截至6月3日，30年国债ETF博时近1年净值上涨14.44%，指数债券型基金排名3/389，居于前0.77%。从收益能力看，截至2025年6月3日，30年国债ETF博时自 成立以来，最高单月回报为5.35%，最长连涨月数为4个月，最长连涨涨幅为10.58%，涨跌月数比为9/5，上涨月份平均收益率为2.20%，月盈利百分比为 64.29%，月盈利概率为70.00%，历史持有1年盈利概率为100.00%。截至2025年6月3日，30年国债ETF博时近6个月超越基准年化收益为0.29%。 回撤方面，截至2025年6月3日，30年国债ETF博时成立以来最大回撤6.89%， ...

Group 1: Company Bond ETF (511030) - As of June 4, 2025, the Company Bond ETF (511030) increased by 0.01%, with the latest price at 105.82 yuan [1] - Over the past year, the Company Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.13% [1] - The latest scale of the Company Bond ETF reached 15.248 billion yuan, marking a new high since its inception [1] - The latest share count for the Company Bond ETF is 14.4 million shares, also a new high in the past month [1] - In the last 14 days, the Company Bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 323 million yuan, totaling 1.557 billion yuan, averaging 111 million yuan daily [1] - The latest margin buying amount for the Company Bond ETF is 2.0106 million yuan, with a margin balance of 2.7483 million yuan [1] Group 2: National Bond ETF (511020) - As of June 4, 2025, the National Bond ETF (511020) is in a state of market indecision, with the latest quote at 117.15 yuan [3] - Over the past six months, the National Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 2.22% [3] - The latest scale of the National Bond ETF is 1.435 billion yuan [3] - Recent fund inflows and outflows for the National Bond ETF have been balanced, with a total of 17.566 million yuan in the last four trading days [3] Group 3: National Development Bond ETF (159651) - As of June 4, 2025, the National Development Bond ETF (159651) is also in a state of market indecision, with the latest quote at 106.04 yuan [5] - Over the past year, the National Development Bond ETF has accumulated a rise of 1.96% [5] - The trading volume for the National Development Bond ETF was 6.0126 million yuan, with a turnover rate of 0.52% [5] - The scale of the National Development Bond ETF has increased by 123 million yuan over the past six months, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [5] Group 4: Market Overview and Insights - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic travel reached 119 million trips, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, with total spending of 42.73 billion yuan, up 5.9% [6] - The secondary market for interest rate bonds saw significant net selling by joint-stock banks, with a net sell of 59 billion yuan from joint-stock banks and a net buy of 24 billion yuan from large banks [6] - The market outlook for Hong Kong financial stocks remains positive, with a potential 30% upside for Hong Kong banks due to stable net interest margins and low domestic risk-free rates [6] - Year-to-date, the pure bond fund index has yielded 0.47%, underperforming money market funds [6] Group 5: ETF Product Overview - The three main members of the bond ETF family managed by Ping An Fund include the Company Bond ETF (511030), National Development Bond ETF (159651), and National Bond ETF (511020), covering government bonds, policy bank bonds, and credit bonds across various durations [7]

金融研究 2025年6月4日 星期三 市场表现：6 月 3 日，A 股四大股指全线上涨，其中上证指数上涨 0.43%，报收 3361.98 点；深成指 上涨 0.16%，报收 10057.17 点；创业板指上涨 0.48%，报收 2002.7 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.48%， 报收 981.71 点。市场成交 11,638 亿元，较前日减少 4 亿元。行业板块方面，美容护理(+3.86%)， 纺织服饰(+2.53%)，综合(+2.02%)涨幅居前；家用电器(-2.1%)，钢铁(-1.37%)，煤炭(-0.84%)跌幅 居前。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IH>IF，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 3,390/240/1,782。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-25、-66、-18、110 亿元，分别变动+168、+93、-115、-146 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 160.24、127.04、64.41 与 49.3 点，基差年化收益率分 别为-19.41%、-16.4%、-12.3%与-13.49%，三年期历史分位数分别为 4%、5%、1%及 5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the articles is the recent monetary policy adjustments by the central bank, including a reduction in deposit and loan interest rates, which has led to a significant decrease in the performance benchmarks of various wealth management products offered by banks [1][2][6]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - In May, the central bank implemented a "combination punch" of monetary policy, reducing the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points, resulting in a corresponding decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) by approximately 0.1 percentage points [2][6]. - Major state-owned banks initiated their first deposit rate cuts of the year, with the interest rate for demand deposits dropping to 0.05%, nearing "zero interest," and the one-year deposit rate falling below 1% [2][3]. Group 2: Wealth Management Product Adjustments - Over 300 wealth management products adjusted their performance benchmarks in May, with some products experiencing reductions exceeding 100 basis points [1][2][3]. - For instance, the benchmark for a specific product from Xingyin Wealth Management was adjusted from an annualized range of 2.20%-4.15% to 1.60%-2.60%, with the upper and lower limits reduced by 60 basis points and 155 basis points, respectively [3][5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Performance - As of early June, the average annualized yield for open-ended fixed-income wealth management products was 2.85%, while the one-year yield averaged 2.41%, indicating a downward trend in yields [6][7]. - The total scale of the wealth management market surpassed 30 trillion yuan, driven by the "deposit migration" effect as deposit rates fell [7][11]. Group 4: Investor Demand and Product Supply Mismatch - There is a notable mismatch between investor risk preferences and the types of wealth management products available, with 46.69% of investors having a risk preference of C3 or higher, while only 4.31% of products fall into the R3 category or above [13][14]. - The low-risk perception of wealth management products has limited their sustainable development, as the supply of low-volatility products does not align with the growing demand for diverse investment options [13][14].

Focus on Credit ABS - The Banking Credit Asset Registration and Circulation Center has revised the rules for credit asset securitization, requiring reporting of significant events that may adversely affect asset-backed securities within three working days [1] Macro Dynamics - The Trading Association and Shanghai Bill Exchange held a meeting to discuss the expansion of supply chain bill ABS business, aiming to connect the bill market with the bond market and support small and micro enterprises [3] Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 454.5 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 375.5 billion yuan due to the maturity of 830 billion yuan in reverse repos [4][5] Regional Highlights - Zhengzhou plans to add seven urban renewal projects with a total investment of 13.176 billion yuan [6] - Zhejiang issued the first special bonds for acquiring existing housing, totaling 1.653 billion yuan for eight projects [8] - Shaanxi is guiding enterprises to formulate debt repayment plans and explore various financing channels [9] - Shaoxing is providing subsidies to listed companies for refinancing and debt financing [10] Issuance Dynamics - Zhengzhou Transportation Development Investment Group issued 500 million yuan in green perpetual bonds at a rate of 2.20% [11] - Luohe Investment Holding Group issued 660 million yuan in company bonds at a rate of 2.30% [12] - Kaifeng Urban Development Group is seeking underwriters for a bond issuance of up to 1 billion yuan [13] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 80 billion yuan in book-entry discount treasury bonds [14] - China Great Wall Asset Management issued the first bad asset securitization product in the exchange market, totaling 1.77 billion yuan [15] - Xinjiang Small Loan Company issued 300 million yuan in bonds to support small and micro enterprises [16] Market Sentiment - The credit bond market is expected to experience a high probability of fluctuation and decline in June, influenced by ongoing interest rate adjustments and new policy financial tools [22] - Static analysis indicates that various credit bonds can withstand limited upward pressure in June [23]