Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The steel market is affected by macro - expectations, with steel prices oscillating in a range. The iron ore market has a warming macro - atmosphere, and ore prices continue to fluctuate. The coking coal and coke market shows a "supply rising, demand weak" weak - balance state, and prices continue to oscillate. The power coal market is in a weak state with low downstream demand and high inventory [1][3][5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contract of rebar futures closed at 3133 yuan/ton, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3325 yuan/ton. Today's spot steel transactions were generally weak, and the terminal's willingness to accept the price - increased spot was low. The national building materials transaction volume was 9.82 tons [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The output of finished steel increased slightly, the inventory decline slowed down, and the plate inventory remained high. The current consumption of finished steel was stable, but its sustainability was questionable. The consumption expectation of plates was better. The short - term fundamental contradiction was not prominent, and the macro - policy atmosphere continued to boost market expectations [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices rose slightly, with the 2601 contract closing at 800.5 yuan/ton. Spot prices rose slightly, the trading atmosphere was dull, and supply - demand was loose. The cumulative transaction volume at major national ports was 96.4 tons, a 11.32% increase from the previous day [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The molten iron output decreased, the steel mill profitability rate was continuously compressed, and there was an expectation of a seasonal decline in molten iron. The rigid demand support weakened, and the restocking demand was not significantly released. Port inventory increased significantly, and steel mill imported ore inventory declined, with structural contradictions being more prominent than overall inventory contradictions [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading strategy is to expect price oscillations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the black commodity sector was generally strong and oscillating, and the coking coal and coke futures prices rose slightly. The current market inquiry activity for imports was low, the port quotations were weak, and the trading volume declined [5] - **Logic and Views**: In the off - season of downstream steel consumption, the coking coal and coke market will present a weak - balance state of "rising supply and weak demand" in the short term. For coking coal, mine production is gradually recovering, and Mongolian coal customs clearance volume remains high, with supply expected to be loose. Downstream coking enterprises have limited procurement enthusiasm. For coke, production enthusiasm has improved, but downstream steel mills are in continuous losses, and their procurement attitude is cautious [5][6] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading strategy for coking coal and coke is to expect price oscillations, and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Power Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production area, coal prices continued to be weak, downstream mainly carried out long - term contract transportation, and non - power coal was purchased as needed. Port inventory accumulated rapidly, quotations continued to loosen, downstream demand was poor, and actual transactions were few. Import coal tender prices continued to decline, and some traders took profits and sold [6] - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have been in a weak state due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and relatively high inventory. In the long - term, attention should be paid to changes in the supply pattern, non - power coal consumption, and restocking [6] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [7]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The finished products are expected to move in a downward - centering and weak manner, and will be in an oscillatory consolidation state, with attention to macro - policies and downstream demand [1][3] - For aluminum ingots, the inventory shows a slight decline, and the price is expected to be short - term strong but under great pressure at the end of the year. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment, mine - end news, and changes in the ratio of inventory to consumption [1][4] Summary by Related Content 成材 (Finished Products) - Yungui area short - process construction steel enterprises will have a shutdown and maintenance period from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, which is expected to affect the total output of construction steel by 741,000 tons. In Anhui Province, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 has shut down on January 5, and the rest will shut down around mid - January, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons during the shutdown [3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to move down. This year's winter storage is sluggish, providing weak price support [3] 原材料 - 铝 (Raw Materials - Aluminum) - In November, China's bauxite production decreased by 1.56% month - on - month and 5.26% year - on - year; domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 1.47% year - on - year and decreased by 2.82% month - on - month. Since November, electrolytic aluminum has gradually shifted from the peak consumption season to the off - season, with a decline in downstream operating rates and a lower proportion of molten aluminum [3] - In December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. Some new electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to start production from the end of 2025 to the beginning of 2026, and attention should be paid to the relevant commissioning progress [3] - Last week, the operating rate of downstream aluminum processing materials increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.3%. The operating rates of primary aluminum alloy, recycled aluminum alloy, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables increased slightly, while that of sheet - strip - foil remained flat. The auto - related fields are relatively stable, but the construction industry is still sluggish [3] - On December 1, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the main domestic consumption areas was 596,000 tons, the same as last Thursday and 17,000 tons lower than last Monday [3] 有色金属 (Non - ferrous Metals) - Supported by macro - sentiment, there is still an expectation of tightened overseas supply in the fundamentals. However, with the arrival of the domestic off - season, there is a short - term delay in consumption realization, and the inventory trend is volatile. The price is expected to be short - term strong but under great pressure at the end of the year, and attention should be paid to macro - guidance and the ratio of inventory to consumption [4]

Core Viewpoint - The macro policy has entered a critical window of "tuning - starting" with a GDP growth target expected to remain around 5% until 2026, emphasizing price factors and nominal growth [1] Group 1: Macro Policy Focus - The macro policy is expected to focus on three main lines: firstly, to emphasize "starting well," with a more proactive and timely macro policy [1] - Secondly, there will be a focus on "expanding domestic demand," shifting the consumption drive from goods to service consumption, with a need for stronger real estate policies and a recovery in infrastructure investment [1] - Thirdly, the technology focus will remain unchanged, accelerating the transition between old and new growth drivers [1] Group 2: Market Attention Areas - The strength and direction of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, promoting consumption, and "reducing competition" will be key areas of market attention [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ☆☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - Steel market has supply pressure easing but weak domestic demand, with the spot price relatively firm and the futures price continuing to rebound [2] - Iron ore market has a loose supply-demand situation, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [3] - Coke and coking coal markets have expectations of downstream replenishment, with the coke price likely to maintain a rebound and the coking coal price likely to fluctuate strongly in the short term [4][5] - Silicon manganese and ferrosilicon markets have the futures price fluctuating, with the supply decreasing and the inventory slightly declining [6][7] Summary by Commodity Steel - Thread: Surface demand and production decline, inventory decreases, and the market continues to decline [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Demand declines, production increases, inventory slowly decreases, and the pressure remains to be alleviated [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments increase, domestic arrivals decline but remain high, and port inventories continue to accumulate [3] - Demand: Steel surface demand is low, iron water is in a production reduction trend, and the demand has room to weaken [3] - Market: The macro atmosphere is warm, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate [3] Coke - Supply: Coking profit is average, and daily production slightly increases [4] - Demand: Downstream demand has resilience, but the steel mill's profit is average, and the pressure on raw material prices is strong [4] - Market: The price is expected to maintain a rebound [4] Coking Coal - Supply: Coking coal mine production increases slightly, and the spot auction price mainly decreases [5] - Demand: Similar to coke [5] - Market: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [5] Silicon Manganese - Supply: Production decreases slightly, and inventory slowly accumulates [6] - Demand: Iron water production rebounds to a high level [6] - Market: The price fluctuates, and the manganese ore price rises [6] Ferrosilicon - Supply: Supply decreases, and inventory slightly declines [7] - Demand: Iron water production rebounds, export demand declines, and metal magnesium production increases [7] - Market: The price fluctuates, and there are expectations of cost reduction [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Views - The steel market is influenced by macro - expectations, with steel prices fluctuating within a range. The consumption stability of finished products needs further observation, and attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, weather, demand, and winter stockpiling [1]. - The iron ore market has a growing supply - demand contradiction with rising inventory. Some inventory is locked, keeping prices high. As steel mills cut production and iron - water output is expected to decline seasonally, the market may face pressure if inventory is released [3]. - The coking coal and coke (double - coking) market is running in a volatile manner. The market sentiment is cautious. For coking coal, domestic inventory is accumulating, and the implementation of supply - guarantee policies needs attention. For coke, the first price cut has been implemented, and demand is weakening [5][6]. - The thermal coal market is experiencing weak prices. Downstream consumption is lower than expected, and inventory is relatively high. Long - term supply pattern changes and non - power coal consumption and restocking should be monitored [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 3,134 yuan/ton, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,327 yuan/ton. Spot steel transactions were generally good, mainly for speculation and futures - spot trading, while rigid demand was average. Rebar prices in some regions were supported by mills. The national building materials trading volume was 124,959 [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Finished product output increased slightly, inventory decline slowed, and consumption stability needs further observation. Plate inventory still exists, and its industrial - property consumption is expected to be better than that of finished products. With futures contract roll - over and positive macro - policies, market expectations remain. Attention should be paid to macro - policy implementation, weather, demand, and winter stockpiling [1]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices were generally weak and stable with mediocre transactions. The total iron ore trading volume at major ports was 964,000 tons, a 11.32% increase from the previous day [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply - demand contradiction is intensifying, with rising total inventory. Some inventory is locked due to non - market factors, keeping prices high. As steel mills cut production and iron - water output is expected to decline seasonally, the market may face pressure if inventory is released. Attention should be paid to subsequent negotiation progress [3]. - **Strategy**: The unilateral strategy is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [4]. Double - Coking (Coking Coal and Coke) - **Market Analysis**: Driven by improved market sentiment, double - coking futures prices rebounded and showed a volatile trend. For imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance volume remained high, traders were cautious, and the market was quiet with falling port prices [5]. - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, domestic inventory is accumulating, and the implementation of supply - guarantee policies needs attention. For coke, the first price cut has been implemented, market divergence on future prices has increased, and demand is weakening [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The strategy for both coking coal and coke is to expect a volatile market, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and options trading [6]. Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are weakening, and the market is pessimistic. Downstream buyers mainly rely on long - term contracts. Some mines have inventory backlogs and fewer trucks for coal transportation. At ports, the market sentiment is weak, downstream demand is cold, and inventory is rising. Import coal tender prices are falling, and traders are cautious [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: Recently, coal prices have been weak due to lower - than - expected downstream consumption and high inventory. In the long term, supply pattern changes, non - power coal consumption, and restocking should be monitored [7]. - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [7].

Economic Overview - In December, the economic performance for 2025 is expected to show a "high first, low second" trend, with a projected annual growth rate of around 5% [1][3] - The economy grew by 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with quarterly growth rates of 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [1][3] Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement but still below the expansion threshold [3][6] - The industrial added value increased by 6.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, while the service sector grew by 5.4% [5][6] - CPI decreased by 0.1% and PPI fell by 2.8% in the same period, reflecting weak demand [5][6] Policy Measures - The government has introduced policies to stabilize investment and mitigate risks, including the accelerated deployment of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools [3][6] - There is an expectation for more proactive macroeconomic policies to support growth in 2026, including significant infrastructure projects and fiscal measures [9][10] Future Projections - For 2026, economic growth is anticipated to remain around 5%, with a potential shift to a "low first, high second" trend due to new opportunities arising from the 14th Five-Year Plan [10][13] - The fiscal deficit rate is expected to increase to 5% in 2026, with a focus on enhancing public spending and supporting consumer demand [11][12] Sector-Specific Insights - The export sector has shown resilience, with a 5.3% year-on-year increase in exports from January to October 2025, despite external pressures [6][13] - The real estate market continues to face challenges, with ongoing adjustments and a need for policy interventions to stabilize the sector [6][12]

Economic Overview - The overall economic performance in 2025 is expected to show a "high first, low second" trend, with a projected annual growth rate of around 5% [1][2][4] - The manufacturing PMI for November recorded at 49.2%, indicating a slight improvement but still below the expansion threshold, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [2][5] - The economy is characterized by strong supply but weak demand, with CPI and PPI showing declines, indicating low inflationary pressures [3][4] Investment and Policy Measures - The government has introduced several policies to stabilize investment and mitigate risks, including the acceleration of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools [2][5] - There is an expectation for increased macroeconomic policy efforts in 2026, particularly in infrastructure and consumption sectors, to support economic recovery [6][8] Sector Performance - Exports have shown resilience, with a 5.3% increase in the first ten months of 2025, despite external pressures [4][10] - The real estate market is undergoing significant adjustments, with ongoing challenges in consumer sentiment and investment [4][9] Future Projections - For 2026, economic growth is anticipated to be around 5%, with a potential shift to a "low first, high second" trend as new opportunities arise [7][10] - The fiscal deficit is expected to increase to 4.5%, with a focus on enhancing public spending and supporting consumer demand [8][10]

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report Title: [HuaBao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly. The market believes that weak employment data will prompt the Fed to cut interest rates further, and the US government is releasing delayed economic data. In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year-on-year but decreased month-on-month. Downstream开工率 declined, and the aluminum water ratio decreased. In December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly month-on-month. The PMI of the aluminum processing industry in November showed significant differentiation. As of December 1, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in the mainstream consumption areas in China remained flat compared with last Thursday and decreased by 17,000 tons compared with last Monday [13]. - View: There is obvious support from the macro - aspect, and the overseas supply is expected to tighten fundamentally. However, with the arrival of the short - term off - season, the downstream demand weakens and the pressure of inventory accumulation increases. It is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate in the short term. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and the high - level pressure [13]. Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices remained high. The processing fees of zinc concentrates decreased compared with early November. The galvanizing开工率 decreased slightly last week. The zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly, and the export window of zinc ingots was still open recently [14]. - View: In the short term, the price maintains a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, but the medium - and long - term supply increase still exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events and the LME inventory trend [14]. Tin - Logic: Last week, the price of Shanghai tin rose significantly. Due to the slow ore output in Myanmar and the tense situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the price of Shanghai tin exceeded 300,000. In October, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates decreased year - on - year. Yunnan and Jiangxi are still in a state of raw material shortage with low开工率. The downstream semiconductor consumption is acceptable, but the traditional automotive and home appliance sectors have cooled down [15]. - View: Due to the sudden situation at the mine end, the price of tin is strongly sorted [15]. Group 4: Weekly Market Review Futures and Spot Prices | Variety | Futures Contract | Closing Price on Dec 1, 2025 | Closing Price on Nov 24, 2025 | Weekly Change | Weekly Increase/Decrease | Spot Price on Dec 1, 2025 | Spot Price on Nov 24, 2025 | Weekly Change | Weekly Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | CU2601 | 89,280 | 86,080 | 3,200 | 3.72% | 89,150 | 86,215 | 2,935 | 3.40% | | Aluminum | AL2601 | 21,865 | 21,380 | 485 | 2.27% | 21,730 | 21,330 | 400 | 1.88% | | Zinc | ZN2601 | 22,590 | 22,390 | 200 | 0.89% | 22,206 | 22,212 | - 6 | - 0.03% | | Tin | SN2601 | 306,580 | 292,860 | 13,720 | 4.68% | 311,500 | 293,750 | 17,750 | 6.04% | | Nickel | NI2601 | 117,850 | 115,530 | 2,320 | 2.01% | 120,340 | 118,290 | 2,050 | 1.73% | [9] Group 5: Variety Data - Aluminum Bauxite - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week on November 28, up 5 year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week, up 20 year - on - year; the average price index of imported bauxite was 72.2 US dollars/ton on November 28, down 0.26 week - on - week and 20.24 year - on - year [20]. - Arrival and Departure Volume: The arrival volume at ports on November 28 was 5.1392 million tons, up 3.0815 million tons week - on - week and 1.4105 million tons year - on - year; the departure volume at ports was 4.5221 million tons, down 262,300 tons week - on - week and 134,000 tons year - on - year [23]. Alumina - Price and Cost - Profit: The domestic price in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week on November 28, down 2,855 year - on - year; the full cost was 2,899.3 yuan/ton, down 5.5 week - on - week and 342.6 year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was - 100.23 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 2,881.99 year - on - year [26]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Total Cost: The total cost on November 28 was 16,078.1 yuan/ton, down 2.64 week - on - week and 5,109.33 year - on - year [30]. - Regional Price Difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 90 yuan/ton on November 28, up 30 week - on - week and down 30 year - on - year [30]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables on November 27 was 63, up 0.6 week - on - week and down 8.8 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 70.4, unchanged week - on - week and down 4.6 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum strips was 66.4, unchanged week - on - week and down 5.6 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.5, up 0.4 week - on - week and up 1.7 year - on - year; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60.2, up 0.4 week - on - week and up 5.2 year - on - year; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.5, up 0.9 week - on - week and up 5.6 year - on - year [32][33]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai on November 27 was 39,500 tons, down 1,600 week - on - week and down 1,400 year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 60,500 tons, down 1,600 week - on - week and up 10,400 year - on - year; the social inventory on December 1 was 596,000 tons, down 17,000 week - on - week and up 43,000 year - on - year; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas on November 24 was 139,400 tons, up 25,300 week - on - week and up 17,300 year - on - year; the SHFE inventory on November 28 was 115,277 tons, down 8,439 week - on - week and down 109,099 year - on - year; the LME inventory on November 27 was 539,050 tons, down 8,950 week - on - week and down 159,425 year - on - year [37][38]. - Spot and Basis: The basis for the current month on November 28 was - 150 yuan/ton, down 230 week - on - week and down 100 year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was - 160 yuan/ton, down 200 week - on - week and down 130 year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 210 yuan/ton, down 205 week - on - week and down 115 year - on - year [44]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract on November 28 was - 10 yuan/ton, up 30 week - on - week and down 50 year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 60 yuan/ton, up 25 week - on - week and down 20 year - on - year [45]. Group 6: Variety Data - Zinc Zinc Concentrate - Price and Processing Fees: The price of domestic zinc concentrate on November 28 was 18,490 yuan/metal ton, up 194 week - on - week and down 3,518 year - on - year; the domestic processing fee was 2,350 yuan/metal ton, down 250 week - on - week and up 850 year - on - year; the import processing fee was 61.25 US dollars/dry ton, down 11.8 week - on - week [54]. - Production Profit, Import Profit - Loss and Inventory: The enterprise production profit on November 28 was 5,490 yuan/metal ton, up 194 week - on - week and down 3,538 year - on - year; the import profit - loss was - 2,710.15 yuan/ton, down 859.58 week - on - week and down 2,543.97 year - on - year; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang on November 28 was 150,000 physical tons, unchanged week - on - week and up 9 year - on - year [58]. Refined Zinc - Inventory: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions on December 1 was 144,300 tons, down 6,700 week - on - week and up 44,400 year - on - year; the bonded - area inventory on November 27 was 3,600 tons, unchanged week - on - week and down 5,900 year - on - year; the SHFE refined zinc inventory on November 28 was 95,916 tons, down 4,431 week - on - week and up 42,933 year - on - year; the LME zinc inventory on November 27 was 51,750 tons, up 4,425 week - on - week and down 216,875 year - on - year [62]. Galvanizing - Production, Operating Rate and Inventory: The production on November 27 was 336,690 tons, up 5,300 week - on - week and down 61,375 year - on - year; the operating rate was 56.54, down 0.63 week - on - week and down 9.97 year - on - year; the raw - material inventory was 14,520 tons, down 330 week - on - week and up 2,480 year - on - year; the finished - product inventory was 366,200 tons, down 600 week - on - week and up 12,820 year - on - year [66]. Zinc Basis and Monthly Spread - Basis: The basis for the current month on November 28 was - 15 yuan/ton, down 60 week - on - week and down 990 year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was - 55 yuan/ton, down 100 week - on - week and down 1,450 year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 105 yuan/ton, down 140 week - on - week and down 1,865 year - on - year [70]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract on November 28 was - 40 yuan/ton, down 40 week - on - week and down 460 year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 90 yuan/ton, down 80 week - on - week and down 875 year - on - year [71]. Group 7: Variety Data - Tin Refined Tin - Production and Operating Rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces on November 28 was 0.336 million tons, up 0.002 week - on - week and up 0.0175 year - on - year; the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 69.34%, up 0.41 week - on - week and up 3.61 year - on - year [80]. Tin Ingot - Inventory: The total SHFE tin - ingot inventory on November 28 was 6,359 tons, up 130 week - on - week and down 880 year - on - year; the social inventory of tin ingots in different regions of China on November 28 was 7,825 tons, up 171 week - on - week and down 352 year - on - year [84]. Tin Concentrate - Processing Fees: The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan on November 28 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 3,000 year - on - year; the processing fees for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan and Jiangxi were 8,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 3,000 year - on - year [85]. - Import Profit - Loss: The import profit - loss level of tin ore on November 28 was 9,605.95 yuan/ton, down 4,095.68 week - on - week and down 2,350.24 year - on - year [88]. - Spot Price: The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan on November 28 was 288,000 yuan/ton, up 8,700 week - on - week and up 63,400 year - on - year; the prices of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan and Jiangxi were 292,000 yuan/ton, up 8,700 week - on - week and up 63,400 year - on - year [94].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - This week, steel prices rose slightly, market sentiment was high, inventory was depleted, and there were expectations of maintenance production. The overall market enthusiasm was relatively high, demand improved to some extent, and raw material support remained strong. The bottom of steel prices may have been determined. As of November 28, the average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar in major cities across the country was 3,291 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 23 yuan/ton; the average price of 8.0mm HPB300 high - speed wire rod was 3,473 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 23 yuan/ton. - In December, the Central Economic Work Conference is about to be held, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts overseas. The macro - environment is warm, and the futures market has the driving force to rebound from a low level. However, the rebar inventory level is still relatively high year - on - year. As the off - season deepens, demand expectations are still under pressure, and the upside space of the futures market is limited. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely at a low level. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review and Outlook - This week, steel prices rose slightly, with improved demand and strong raw material support. The bottom of steel prices may be determined. - Looking ahead, the upcoming December Central Economic Work Conference and overseas interest rate cut expectations create a warm macro - environment, driving a potential low - level rebound in the futures market. But high rebar inventory and weakening demand in the off - season limit the upside space, and the futures price is expected to have wide - range low - level fluctuations. [2] Fundamental Data Weekly Changes | Data Item | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Week | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average pig iron output of steel mills | 10,000 tons | 234.68 | 236.28 | - 1.6 | - 0.68% | Weekly | | Rebar inventory in steel mills | 10,000 tons | 146.73 | 153.32 | - 6.59 | - 4.30% | Weekly | | Rebar social inventory | 10,000 tons | 384.75 | 400.02 | - 15.27 | - 3.82% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil inventory in steel mills | 10,000 tons | 78.02 | 78.02 | 0 | 0% | Weekly | | Hot - rolled coil social inventory | 10,000 tons | 322.88 | 324.09 | - 1.21 | - 0.37% | Weekly | [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the importance of fiscal policy in promoting economic development and achieving annual economic and social development goals [1][2][3][4] - National general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% in the first ten months, reflecting a stable and improving economic operation [1] - Key sectors such as equipment manufacturing and modern services showed strong tax performance, indicating significant industrial upgrading [1] Group 2 - Active fiscal policies have been implemented this year, increasing expenditure intensity and optimizing expenditure structure, particularly in key areas like social security and employment [2][3] - Expenditure growth rates in key areas include social security and employment at 9.3%, education at 4.7%, and science and technology at 5.7% [2] - The issuance of various government bonds, including special bonds and ultra-long-term special treasury bonds, has accelerated to enhance economic development momentum [2] Group 3 - Macro policies need to maintain strong support for consumption, investment, and enterprise assistance, with recent macro policies indicating a clear intention to "sustain efforts" [3] - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from local government debt limits to support local governments and projects, increasing the total scale by 100 billion yuan compared to the previous year [3] - Proactive and scientific macro policies are essential for seizing opportunities and ensuring timely support for economic recovery [3][4] Group 4 - The current international environment remains complex and uncertain, necessitating macro policies to adapt to market changes and enterprise needs [4] - Emphasis on counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments in macro policies to fully utilize policy space and make precise decisions [4]