Group 1 - The report argues that an increase in the equity market does not necessarily lead to a rise in interest rates, indicating a potential for a simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds [5][8][15] - Historical patterns show that both scenarios of rising equity markets with either rising or falling interest rates have occurred, suggesting that the underlying reasons for stock market increases are crucial [9][11] - The current stock market rise is attributed to improved governance expectations and economic transformation, rather than a significant increase in household deposits moving into equities [11][13] Group 2 - The report highlights that the fixed income market is experiencing a high issuance of interest rate bonds, with an expected issuance of 940.8 billion yuan this week, indicating a robust supply environment [16][18] - Recent data shows a significant increase in reverse repos and a net injection of liquidity by the central bank, which has implications for bond market dynamics [23][24] - The report notes that the leverage ratio in the bond market has risen above seasonal averages, reflecting increased trading activity and potential adjustments in investor strategies [13][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current core combination of "weak fundamental recovery + low inflation" remains unchanged, and the loose capital situation continues to support the bond market, with limited adjustment space. It is recommended to observe the adjustment of treasury bond futures in the short term and make allocations after stabilization. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - **Futures Closing Prices and Volumes**: On July 21, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL主力 contracts decreased by 0.01%, 0.05%, 0.05%, and 0.46% respectively; the trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL主力 contracts were 88,280, 72,060, 31,667, and 118,236 respectively, with increases of 3,602, 700, 91, and 6,587 respectively. [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, and TF09 - T09 showed changes, with TL2512 - 2509 decreasing by 0.05, T2512 - 2509 decreasing by 0.03, and TF09 - T09 remaining unchanged. [2] - **Futures Positions**: The positions of T, TF, and TL主力 increased by 2,166, 3,892, and 962 respectively, while the position of TS主力 decreased by 1,247. [2] 3.2 CTD Bond Data - The net prices of some CTD bonds such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, and 240020.IB decreased, with 220010.IB dropping by 0.1004, 250007.IB dropping by 0.0632, and 240020.IB dropping by 0.1193. [2] 3.3 Treasury Bond Active Bond Yields - The yields of 1 - 7Y treasury bonds increased by 0.25 - 1.60bp, while the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds increased by 1.05bp and 1.50bp respectively, reaching 1.67% and 1.89%. [2] 3.4 Short - term Interest Rates - The silver - pledged overnight rate decreased by 3.99bp to 1.3601%, and the Shibor overnight rate decreased by 9.60bp to 1.3660%. [2] 3.5 Industry News - The central bank is soliciting opinions on canceling the regulation of freezing the collateral for bond repurchase until August 17. [2] - In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. [2] - The LPR quotes in July remained stable, with the 1 - year LPR at 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR at 3.5%. [2] 3.6 Market Analysis - Domestic: In June, industrial added value and social retail sales slightly rebounded, fixed - asset investment remained stable, and the unemployment rate was flat. Social financing exceeded expectations, credit demand improved marginally, and deposit activation increased. Exports and imports rebounded significantly, but price levels were under pressure. [2] - Overseas: The US core CPI in June was continuously lower than expected, but inflation risks continued to rise. The Fed's internal differences on the impact of tariffs on the inflation path increased, and the possibility of a short - term interest rate cut decreased. [2] 3.7 Key Events to Watch - On July 21 at 22:00, the US June Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate will be released. - On July 23 at 17:15, the Bank of England Governor and other officials will speak at the UK Parliament's Treasury Committee. [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given reports. 2. Core Views - **Commodities**: Different commodities show various trends. Some are expected to be bullish (e.g., short - term coal, iron ore), some bearish or lack upward momentum (e.g., plastic), and others are expected to oscillate (e.g., crude oil, glass, methanol) [1][2][4][5][6][10][11] - **Livestock**: The short - term pig price is expected to be slightly stronger, and short - term long trading is recommended [8] - **Agricultural Products**: For rapeseed meal, it is recommended to go long at low prices; palm oil is expected to be strong in high - level oscillations [9] - **Bonds**: The long - term bond market is facing a critical choice, and short - term bonds may have stronger upward momentum [12] - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in oscillations [13] 3. Summaries by Commodity Energy - **Crude Oil**: The EU approved sanctions on Russia, and the US drilling rig count decreased. OPEC+ maintains an increase stance, but actual supply growth is limited. Short - term observation is recommended [6] - **Fuel Oil**: In the short term, the price may be supported by the peak power generation season in the Middle East, showing a tight supply - demand balance. An oscillation strategy is recommended [8] Metals - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments decreased slightly, port arrivals increased, and steel mill profitability and molten iron production increased. The price is expected to be strong in oscillations [5] - **Steel**: The supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory stopped falling and rebounded. Affected by policies, the short - term market is expected to be strong in oscillations [4] - **Silver and Gold**: Due to the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, there is uncertainty. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in oscillations [13] Chemicals - **Plastic**: LLDPE supply is expected to increase, demand is in the off - season, and cost provides some support. The L09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [2] - **Methanol**: Coal prices are expected to be stable, domestic methanol production is expected to increase, and demand is expected to be weak. The methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [11] - **PTA (Bottle Chip)**: Supply is decreasing, but downstream inventory - building willingness is low. An oscillation strategy is recommended [7] - **Glass**: The daily melting volume of float glass enterprises is stable, terminal demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. The glass 09 contract is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to wait and see [10] Agricultural Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: Canadian rapeseed exports increased, but its addition ratio in feed is low. It is recommended to go long at low prices [9] - **Palm Oil**: Indonesian palm oil production is expected to decrease, and it is expected to be strong in high - level oscillations [9] Livestock - **Pig**: Pig prices rose slightly on weekends. Short - term prices are expected to be strong, and short - term long trading is recommended. Farmers can choose to sell for hedging according to the slaughter rhythm [8] Bonds - **Long - term Bonds**: Bank - to - bank regulation is strengthening, and there are uncertainties in the long - term bond market. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting in July [12] - **Short - term Bonds**: The short - term interest rate is expected to decline, and short - term bonds may have stronger upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the direction choice near the 60 - day moving average [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, bond yields declined slightly, partially offsetting the increase from the previous week due to restrictions on rural commercial banks' bond purchases. However, the "stock - bond seesaw" effect still restricts the downward space of bond yields in the short term. There are two types of stock market bull runs: fundamental - driven and liquidity - driven. The fundamental - driven bull run causes a shift in risk preference between stocks and bonds, while the liquidity - driven bull run benefits both asset classes. Given the current economic data, the fundamental - driven bull run logic requires third - quarter data for verification and will not lead to an obvious reversal of the "stock - bond seesaw" effect but will make it difficult for bond yields to break through key points. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury bond yield will range from 1.65% - 1.7%, presenting allocation opportunities [2][16] - Overseas markets continued the previous week's trend, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries had a weaker upward movement than the long - end. Global central banks face challenges in coordinating policies due to regional supply - demand imbalances during the "re - globalization" process, and the view of relying on external monetary easing may underestimate the regional characteristics of this imbalance [3][17] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Viewpoints - **Bond Market Downward Space Analysis**: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond decreased by 0.2bp from 1.666% to 1.664%. Throughout the week, various economic data and events influenced bond yields. On Monday, better - than - expected economic data led to a slight increase in bond yields, but the central bank's positive attitude towards bond - buying and liquidity injection later caused yields to decline. Tuesday's mixed economic data and a stock market decline drove bond yields down. Wednesday's rise in US CPI data slightly negatively affected the bond market. Thursday saw both the stock and bond markets oscillating. Friday's end of the tax period and the "stock - bond seesaw" effect had mixed impacts on bond yields [1][14][15] - **US Economic Data and Bond Yield Outlook**: This week, overseas markets continued the previous week's direction, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries had a weaker upward movement than the long - end. Market concerns about Trump's tariff policies and the use of short - term US Treasuries as stablecoin reserves support the short - end of US Treasuries. Global central banks face challenges in coordinating policies due to regional supply - demand imbalances [3][17] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open Market Operations**: From July 14 - 18, 2025, the total net injection in open - market operations was 12,011 billion yuan [36] - **Money Market Interest Rates**: Compared with the previous week, most money market interest rates remained stable, with only a slight increase in the 14 - day interest rate [38] 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **US Economic Data**: In June 2025, the US CPI exceeded market expectations, while the PPI was lower than expected. The July Michigan Consumer Index continued to rise, with the confidence index reaching a five - month high. The number of initial jobless claims continued to decline, while the number of continued claims increased slightly but was lower than expected. Fed Governor Waller hinted at potentially opposing a rate cut [5][20][21] - **Domestic Economic Data**: Steel prices increased, and the total commercial housing transaction area decreased across the board [61][64] 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 60 local bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 251.183 billion yuan, including 62.137 billion yuan in refinancing bonds, 161.424 billion yuan in new special bonds, and 27.622 billion yuan in new general bonds. The total repayment amount was 100.685 billion yuan, and the net financing amount was 150.499 billion yuan. The main investment direction was comprehensive [72] - 11 provinces and cities issued local bonds this week, with Fujian, Liaoning, and Yunnan having the top three issuance amounts [77] 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - This week, the local bond stock was 52.04 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 38.5779 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.74%. The top three most actively traded provinces were Guangdong, Shandong, and Sichuan, and the top three most actively traded maturities were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [90] - The local bond yields generally declined this week [92] 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan No specific content provided. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 344 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 281.266 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 236.046 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 45.22 billion yuan, which was 43.124 billion yuan less than last week [96] - Specifically, local government financing vehicle (LGFV) bonds had a net financing amount of - 12.414 billion yuan, while industrial bonds had a net financing amount of 57.634 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing amount of - 26.401 billion yuan, medium - term notes had 47.259 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had - 37.02 billion yuan, corporate bonds had 33.198 billion yuan, and private placement notes had - 51.34 billion yuan [99][103] 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - This week, the actual issuance interest rates of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and corporate bonds all decreased [110] 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - This week, the total trading volume of credit bonds was 543.018 billion yuan [111] 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bank bonds, short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and LGFV bonds generally declined this week [113][115][116][117] 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - This week, the credit spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and enterprise bonds all narrowed, while the credit spreads of LGFV bonds generally narrowed [118][123][126] 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - This week, the grade spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, while the grade spreads of LGFV bonds generally widened [130][135][138] 3.4.7 Trading Activity - This week, the top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type are listed in the report, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds, followed by the public utilities, finance, materials, and energy sectors [141][142] 3.4.8 Issuer Credit Rating Changes - The credit ratings or outlooks of several companies, including Qingdao Caito Group Co., Ltd. and Wuhan East Lake High - tech Group Co., Ltd., were upgraded this week [146]

Core Viewpoint - The credit bond ETF from Bosera has shown a mixed performance with a slight increase in value, while new listings of technology innovation bond ETFs have significantly boosted the market size and liquidity [3][4]. Group 1: Performance Metrics - As of July 17, 2025, the Bosera credit bond ETF has increased by 0.28% this month, ranking 1 out of 4 among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF's latest price is 101.36 yuan, with a trading volume of 50.33 billion yuan, indicating active market participation [3]. - Over the past six months, the net value of the Bosera credit bond ETF has risen by 1.36%, placing it 23 out of 477 in the index bond fund rankings [4]. Group 2: Fund Size and Liquidity - The Bosera credit bond ETF has reached a new high in size at 129.32 billion yuan, ranking 2 out of 4 among comparable funds [3]. - The ETF has seen a significant increase in shares, with a growth of 297,000 shares over the past two weeks, also ranking 2 out of 4 [3]. - The recent inflow of funds has been stable, with a total of 4.86 billion yuan attracted over the last ten trading days [4]. Group 3: Risk and Return Analysis - The maximum drawdown since inception for the Bosera credit bond ETF is 0.89%, with a recovery time of 26 days [4]. - The ETF has a historical monthly profit probability of 75.96% and a 100% probability of profit over a six-month holding period [4]. - The management fee is 0.15% and the custody fee is 0.05%, making it the lowest among comparable funds [4]. Group 4: Tracking and Precision - The Bosera credit bond ETF closely tracks the Shenzhen benchmark market-making credit bond index, reflecting the operational characteristics of the credit bond market [5]. - The tracking error for the ETF this year is 0.009%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pattern of the upward movement of bond yields in this round may shift from the previous "tightening of funds by the central bank → upward movement of bond yields" to "trend - upward movement of the stock market → upward movement of bond yields" [5] - If the economy is relatively stable in the second half of the year and inflation recovers moderately, the funds rate may rise with a lag, and this kind of funds tightening is irreversible, pushing the yields to rise continuously in a step - by - step manner [5] - If the economy does not decline significantly in the second half of the year, funds in the bond market may gradually flow out, and the flow pattern may be "stock market rise → lagged rise in bond yields → final rise in the funds rate". For the convertible bond market, if the economy does not decline significantly, off - market funds may flow in trend - wise [6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Three Dimensions of the Stock - Bond Seesaw - Intraday seesaw: When the bond lacks a main - line logic, the risk preference of the stock market may affect the bond trend, but it is mainly a short - term disturbance [2] - Periodic seesaw: It is often related to the short - term and drastic flow of funds. When the stock market rises significantly, it may lead to the concentrated redemption of bond funds and the inflow into stock funds, causing a short - term and obvious adjustment in the bond market [2] - Trend - based seesaw: For example, in 2017 and from May to December 2020, the stock market rose and bond yields went up; in 2018, the stock market fell and bond yields declined [2] 2. Essence of the Trend - based Stock - Bond Seesaw - Except for the period from 2014 - 2015, the trend - upward movement of the stock market usually occurs when the economy is improving, corresponding to the trend - upward movement of bond yields [3] - The trend - upward movement of the stock market leads the upward movement of bond yields. For example, in November 2008, the stock market started to rise, while for bonds it was January 2009 [3] 3. Four Logics for the Stock Market's Leading Role - The stock market is more sensitive to the economy as stock trading is often bottom - up and more sensitive to changes in micro - entities [4] - The stock market represents the market - based endogenous driving force. Only when market expectations continue to improve will the stock market show a trend - upward movement [4] - Bond investors have strong stickiness because of the coupon income of bond assets. As long as the yields do not rise significantly, holding bonds to obtain coupons is often the dominant choice [4] - Due to the relative - return - based assessment mechanism of bond funds, bond investors have difficulty in reducing the duration [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - In the stock index market, overseas focus is on the impact of US tariffs on various countries, while domestically, attention is on the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July. It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3]. - For treasury bonds, in the context of weak domestic demand recovery and loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. It is advisable to enter the market on dips, considering the impact of the stock - bond seesaw [5]. - Regarding precious metals, the expectation of loose monetary policy will drive up the prices of gold and silver, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on silver [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different price trends. For example, copper prices are expected to have a weak rebound, aluminum prices will follow the commodity atmosphere, zinc prices are expected to be bearish in the long - term and volatile in the short - term, etc. [9][10][11]. - In the black building materials market, the prices of finished products are oscillating strongly. The market needs to pay attention to policy signals, terminal demand repair rhythm, and cost support [23]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be long - term bullish, while crude oil is recommended to be observed for risk control [37][39]. - In the agricultural products market, different products also have different trends. For example, for pork, short - term long positions may have space, while for eggs, a strategy of waiting for a rebound to short is recommended [52][53]. Summary by Directory Stock Index - **Macro News**: The starting price of the super - luxury car consumption tax is adjusted to 900,000 yuan; Guangzhou Futures Exchange implements trading limits on polysilicon futures; Trump plans to impose a 25% tariff on Japan; US import prices and retail sales data show different trends [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts [3]. - **Trading Logic**: Overseas, focus on US tariffs; domestically, focus on the July "Central Political Bureau Meeting". It is recommended to go long on IF stock index futures on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS showed different price changes [4]. - **News**: US retail sales and initial jobless claims data are released; the central bank conducts 450.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 360.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, interest rates are expected to decline. It is advisable to enter the market on dips, considering the stock - bond seesaw [5]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: The prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver show different trends; the US 10 - year treasury bond yield and the US dollar index are provided [6]. - **Market Outlook**: US retail sales data is affected by price factors, and the dovish attitude of the Fed supports the price of silver. It is recommended to go long on silver [6][7]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper and Shanghai copper prices rise; LME inventory increases, and domestic social inventory decreases [9]. - **Analysis**: The commodity atmosphere supports copper prices, but the expectation of US copper tariffs brings risks. The raw material shortage situation is weakening, and the rebound strength is expected to be weak [9]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum prices rise; domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreases, and LME inventory increases [10]. - **Analysis**: The domestic commodity atmosphere is positive, but the overseas trade situation is uncertain. Aluminum ingot inventory is low, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation, and prices will follow the commodity atmosphere [10]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai zinc index rises, and LME zinc falls; domestic social inventory increases slightly [11]. - **Analysis**: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish, and in the short - term, they are expected to oscillate [11]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: Shanghai lead index falls, and LME lead falls; domestic social inventory increases slightly [12]. - **Analysis**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the demand is slightly weak. Domestic lead prices are expected to be weak [12]. Nickel - **Market Quotes**: Nickel prices oscillate; the price of nickel iron falls, and the price of nickel ore weakens [13][14][15]. - **Analysis**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel iron is expected to fall. It is recommended to go short on nickel at high prices [15]. Tin - **Market Quotes**: Tin prices oscillate; the supply of tin ore is expected to increase, but the actual output needs time [16]. - **Analysis**: The supply of tin is low, and the demand is weak. In the short - term, tin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The price of lithium carbonate rises; production increases, and inventory increases slightly [17]. - **Analysis**: Supply - side disturbances are frequent. It is recommended to operate cautiously and pay attention to industry information and market atmosphere [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index falls; spot prices in different regions show different trends; the import window is closed [18]. - **Analysis**: The price of bauxite is expected to strengthen in the medium - term, but the over - capacity pattern of alumina remains. It is recommended to short at high prices [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The price of stainless steel rises; social inventory decreases slightly, but the inventory of some varieties is still high [19]. - **Analysis**: Affected by policies and demand, stainless steel prices are expected to rise slightly [19]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The price of casting aluminum alloy rises slightly; inventory increases slightly [20]. - **Analysis**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the supply and demand are weak. The cost support is strengthened, but the price increase is limited [20]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil rise; the inventory of rebar accumulates slightly, and the inventory of hot - rolled coil decreases [22][23]. - **Analysis**: The market atmosphere is positive, but the fundamental contradiction is not obvious. It is necessary to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [23]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The price of iron ore rises; the supply and demand situation changes, and the port inventory increases slightly [24][25]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate strongly. It is necessary to pay attention to market sentiment and macro - economic factors [25]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes**: The price of glass is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the price of soda ash is expected to be weak in the medium - term [26][27]. - **Analysis**: The supply of glass is stable, and the demand is resilient; the supply of soda ash is loose, and the inventory pressure is large [26][27]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rise; the price trends are affected by market sentiment [28]. - **Analysis**: The fundamental situation is still bearish, but in the short - term, the market is affected by sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [28][29]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Quotes**: The price of industrial silicon rises slightly; the supply is excessive, and the demand is insufficient [32]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the price is affected by sentiment. It is recommended that the industry conduct hedging operations [32][35]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Quotes**: NR and RU prices rise; the开工 rate of tire enterprises changes, and the inventory situation is different [37]. - **Analysis**: Rubber prices are expected to rise in the second half of the year. It is recommended to go long in the medium - term and be neutral - long in the short - term [37][38]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI and Brent crude oil prices rise, and INE crude oil prices fall; the inventory of refined oil products changes [39]. - **Analysis**: The geopolitical risk is uncertain, and the market is in a long - short game. It is recommended to observe and control risks [39]. Methanol - **Market Quotes**: The price of methanol rises; the upstream and downstream situations change [40]. - **Analysis**: The market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [40]. Urea - **Market Quotes**: The price of urea rises; the supply and demand situation is acceptable [41]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to pay attention to short - term long opportunities on dips [41]. Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price of styrene rises, and the futures price falls; the BZN spread is expected to repair [42]. - **Analysis**: The price of styrene is expected to follow the cost side [42]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The price of PVC rises; the supply is strong, and the demand is weak [44]. - **Analysis**: The market is under pressure, and the price is expected to be weak in the future [44]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The price of ethylene glycol rises; the supply and demand situation changes [45]. - **Analysis**: In the short - term, the price is expected to be strong, but the fundamental situation is weak [45]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The price of PTA rises; the supply is expected to increase, and the demand is under pressure [46]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity to go long on PX on dips [46]. p - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The price of p - xylene rises; the supply and demand situation changes [47][48]. - **Analysis**: In the third quarter, p - xylene is expected to reduce inventory. It is recommended to go long on dips following the price of crude oil [48]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PE rises, and the现货 price falls; the inventory and demand situation changes [49]. - **Analysis**: The price of PE is expected to oscillate downward [49]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Quotes**: The futures price of PP rises, and the现货 price falls; the supply and demand situation is weak [50]. - **Analysis**: The price of PP is expected to be bearish in July. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Agricultural Products Hogs - **Market Quotes**: The price of hogs falls; the short - term supply decreases seasonally, but there is pressure in the medium - term [52]. - **Analysis**: Short - term long positions may have space, but attention should be paid to supply delay and hedging pressure [52]. Eggs - **Market Quotes**: The price of eggs rises; the supply is large, and the short - term rebound space is limited [53]. - **Analysis**: It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short [53]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Quotes**: The price of US soybeans rebounds; the price of domestic soybean meal rises [54]. - **Analysis**: The soybean market is long - short intertwined. It is recommended to go long on dips and wait for new driving factors [54][55]. Oils - **Market Quotes**: The price of palm oil rises; the export and production situation of palm oil changes [56][57]. - **Analysis**: The price of oils is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the impact of policies and production [58][59]. Sugar - **Market Quotes**: The price of sugar rises; the import supply pressure may increase in the second half of the year [60]. - **Analysis**: The price of sugar is expected to decline if the external market does not rebound significantly [60]. Cotton - **Market Quotes**: The price of cotton rises; the export situation of textiles and clothing changes [61]. - **Analysis**: The price of cotton has rebounded, but there are potential negative factors [61].

Group 1 - The bond market is currently facing adjustment pressure, with yields generally rising; from July 7 to July 16, the 10-year and 30-year government bond yields increased by 2 basis points (bp) and 3 bp to 1.66% and 1.87%, respectively [1] - The recent adjustment in stock dividend rates has alleviated the pressure on bond market valuations, making the risk-reward ratio more favorable; the dividend yield of the CSI 300 index dropped from an average of 3.47% in May to 3% on July 14 [1] - The liquidity environment is relatively stable, with social financing growth expected to peak around 9.0% in July before trending down to approximately 8.2% by year-end, which limits disturbances to the bond market [2] Group 2 - The recent tightening of the funding environment has led to profit-taking in the equity market, causing credit spreads in certain bonds to widen; for instance, from July 7 to July 14, the credit spreads for 5-year secondary bonds AA+/AAA- and 3-year local government bonds AA/AA+ widened by 2.3 bp/1.4 bp and 2.0 bp/3.0 bp, respectively [3] - Despite the current adjustments, the core logic of secondary bonds remains intact, as the "amplifier" property of interest rate fluctuations persists in a liquidity easing environment [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current adjustment of the dividend yield has alleviated the pressure of the over - valued bond market, and the odds have increased marginally. The current cost - performance advantage of bonds is gradually emerging, which may provide a more favorable valuation support environment for the phased layout of interest - rate bonds [7][18]. - The liquidity environment provides a relatively stable operating foundation for the bond market. The social financing growth rate may peak in the third quarter and then decline trend - wise, and the expected impact of structural changes on the bond market is limited. The bond market faces a relatively friendly liquidity environment [7][24]. - The central bank has clearly shown its attitude of protecting liquidity, and the money market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond may decline to around 1.6%. It is recommended to pay continuous attention to the yield curve and various convex point opportunities, and the spread may continue to be flattened in late July. It is advisable to first focus on interest - rate bonds and Tier 2 capital bonds, and then on credit bonds [7][34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Recent Bond Market Callback - From July 7th to July 16th, the yields of the bond market generally increased. The yields of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds increased by 2bp and 3bp respectively, and the short - end yields increased more significantly. The adjustment of Tier 2 capital bonds was more obvious [5][12]. Bond Market Odds Gradually Rising - The adjustment of the dividend yield has alleviated the pressure of the over - valued bond market, and the odds have increased marginally. The decline of the CSI 300 dividend yield from the May average of 3.47% to 3.0% on July 14th is conducive to the inflow of funds into the bond market [7][18]. - The liquidity environment provides a stable foundation for the bond market. The social financing growth rate is expected to reach a high of about 9.0% in July and then decline to around 8.2% by the end of the year. The support of government bonds for social financing may weaken in the fourth quarter, and the substitution effect of special refinancing bonds on RMB loans will continue. The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and the bond market's liquidity environment is friendly [7][24]. 10 - year Treasury Bond Has Certain Odds Above 1.65%, Recommend First Interest - rate and Tier 2 Capital Bonds, Then Credit Bonds - Due to the disturbance of the money market at the beginning of the quarter and the strengthening of the equity market, the Tier 2 capital bonds and credit bonds with previously compressed spreads have given back their gains, especially the medium - and long - term and some medium - and low - grade varieties. However, the core logic of Tier 2 capital bonds has not changed [33]. - Since July 10th, the central bank has shifted to net investment in open - market operations. The money market is expected to return to a balanced and loose state, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond may decline to around 1.6%. It is recommended to seize the layout opportunities after the adjustment, with medium - and short - term varieties as the basis for coupon income, and medium - and high - grade 3 - 5 - year varieties having better elasticity in interest - rate band operations [34].

Macro Strategy - The "urban renewal" initiative is expected to achieve a total investment of at least 4.48 trillion yuan during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, averaging nearly 900 billion yuan annually. The main sources of potential demand will come from the renovation of urban villages, old residential communities, and urban infrastructure upgrades [1][18]. - The renovation of old residential communities and urban infrastructure is projected to contribute at least 2.35 trillion yuan in new investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, supported by over 470 billion yuan in central budget investments and special bonds [1][18]. - The urban village renovation is estimated to contribute 2.13 trillion yuan in new investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, assuming a "half-demolition, half-renovation" approach for the remaining self-built houses [1][18]. Economic Data - The actual GDP growth rate for Q2 was 5.2%, with a cumulative growth of 5.3% for the first half of the year, indicating a strong performance compared to the previous year. However, the nominal GDP growth rate was lower at 3.9% for Q2 [2][20]. - Consumer spending showed resilience, with retail sales growth of 5.0% in the first half, driven by the "old-for-new" policy, while real estate sales showed improvement compared to the previous year [2][20]. - Industrial production increased, with the industrial added value in June rising to 6.8%, supported by strong external demand, particularly in the equipment manufacturing sector [2][20]. Fixed Income - The bond market experienced a "stock-bond seesaw" effect, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.641% to 1.666% during the week of July 7-11, 2025, influenced by stock market performance [6]. - The issuance of green bonds totaled approximately 34.825 billion yuan during the week of July 7-11, 2025, while the trading volume of green bonds in the secondary market reached 62.3 billion yuan [7]. - The issuance of secondary capital bonds amounted to 53 billion yuan during the same week, with a total trading volume of approximately 185.5 billion yuan in the secondary market [8]. Company Analysis - The company "锅圈" is expected to achieve revenue of 72.9 billion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 13%, and a net profit of 4.0 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 71% [9]. - "水井坊" anticipates a revenue decline of approximately 12.8% in H1 2025, with a net profit drop of about 56.5%, indicating challenges in the current market environment [10]. - "新和成" is projected to achieve net profits of 60 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 2%, supported by ongoing project developments in nutrition and new materials [11]. - "博瑞医药" has received IND approval for its oral drug BGM0504, which is expected to enter clinical trials soon, indicating strong potential in the diabetes treatment market [12][13]. - "炬芯科技" reported a revenue increase of 59% in Q2 2025, driven by the successful implementation of AI technology in its product offerings [14]. - "美图公司" has adjusted its profit forecast slightly downward but remains optimistic about its AI-driven growth strategy, projecting net profits of 8.54 billion yuan in 2025 [15].