Group 1 - The core issue revolves around potential supply shortages of toilet paper in the U.S. due to proposed tariffs on imported wood and pharmaceuticals by former President Trump, which could disrupt the supply of pulp necessary for toilet paper production [2][3] - The previous toilet paper crisis was linked to panic buying during the pandemic, highlighting how external factors can lead to sudden demand spikes and supply chain disruptions [3] - Trump's tariff policy is seen as a form of trade protectionism aimed at encouraging domestic production, but it risks harming consumer interests and could lead to unintended consequences such as trade friction [6] Group 2 - The proposed tariffs could significantly increase the cost of imported wood, which is essential for pulp production, leading to higher prices for toilet paper or reduced production [2][6] - The stable demand for toilet paper juxtaposed with potential supply constraints could create a scenario of scarcity, reminiscent of previous toilet paper shortages [2][3] - The situation illustrates the complexities of trade policies, where attempts to protect domestic industries may inadvertently affect essential consumer goods [6][8]

摘要 行业近况 据亚洲金属网，1-5月钨精矿价格从12.2万元/吨持续上行至15.7万元/吨；6-7月，因下游需求负反馈，钨价回调至12.9万元/吨并 企稳；7月起钨价再次震荡上行。截至11月11日，中国钨精矿价格达14.15万元/吨，年初以来累计上涨16%，接近2011年15.9万 元/吨的历史高位。 供给侧，中国钨精矿产量持续收紧，钨精矿库存去化至历史低位。 当前钨供给呈现以下边际变化： 一是中国供给增速明显放缓。 据 钨钼云商，受品位变化、环保要求等影响，1-10月中国钨精矿生产量8.7万吨，累计同比-9.6%，其中10月中国钨精矿产量9435吨，同/ 环比-2.1%/-2.5%。 二是中国钨精矿进口明显增加。 据海关总署，2024年前三季度中国钨精矿进口量8136吨，累计同比+95%，其中9 月中国钨精矿进口同/环比+96%/+27%。 三是中国钨精矿库存去化至历史低位。 据亚洲金属网，截至9月底中国钨精矿生产商库存仅 为100吨，处于历史2%分位数。 四是海外仅哈萨克斯坦有望形成明显供给增量， 我们预计2025-2027年或达到全球钨供给的 4.4%/5.4%/6.6%。 需求侧，静待稳增长发力带动 ...