1月29日，沪金主力合约强势突破1200元/克整数关口，现报1229.90元/克，续创历史新高，本月累涨超 25%。 ...

宝城期货橡胶早报-2026-01-29 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，沪胶震荡偏强 | | 合成胶 | 2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 偏强运行 | 偏多氛围支撑，合成胶震荡偏强 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 期货研究报告 晨会纪要 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 沪胶（RU） 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏强运行 核心逻辑：目前国内云南和海南天胶产区已进入停割季，国产全乳胶供应压力显著下降，而东 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-01-29 淡季驱动有限，盘⾯震荡运⾏ 钢⼚复产节奏偏缓，铁矿⽯⾼发运⾼库存压制盘⾯估值。焦炭⾸轮提 涨即将落地，节前焦煤供应存在收紧预期，盘⾯低位企稳。淡季钢材 端累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，但负反馈预期暂⽆，盘⾯震荡运 ⾏。玻璃需求仍有韧性，纯碱下游补库延续，盘⾯存在低位反弹迹 象，但玻璃纯碱供需过剩继续限制盘⾯上⽅空间。 钢厂复产节奏偏缓，铁矿石高发运高库存压制盘面估值。焦炭首轮提 涨即将落地，节前焦煤供应存在收紧预期，盘面低位企稳。淡季钢材 端累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，但负反馈预期暂无，盘面震荡运 行。玻璃需求仍有韧性，纯碱下游补库延续，盘面存在低位反弹迹 象，但玻璃纯碱供需过剩继续限制盘面上方空间。 1. 铁元素方面：到港减量，短期供应压力稍缓，库存压力仍在增 加，天气影响供应端仍存扰动预期，需求端节前补库支撑矿价，现实 方面供需两端仍有待验证。废钢供应平稳，日耗有下降预期，整体基 本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随成材。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭成本端支撑坚挺，且钢厂复产预期仍在，冬储 补库需求仍存，焦炭供 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-1-29 棉价增仓上涨，关注前高压力 油脂：油脂高位震荡 蛋白粕：双粕跟随外盘走高，关注阿根廷天气变化 玉米/淀粉：价格偏弱震荡 生猪：猪源充裕，价格弱势 天然橡胶：关注前高压力 合成橡胶：板块氛围回暖带动盘面反弹 棉花：棉价增仓上涨，关注前高压力 白糖：糖价窄幅波动 纸浆：基本面弱势，盘面陷入横向波动 双胶纸：现货持稳，盘面区间运行 原木：基本面边际好转，原木短期偏强震荡 【异动品种】 棉花观点：棉价增仓上涨，关注前⾼压⼒ 信息：根据万得，1.28，郑棉05合约收于14940元/吨，环比+375元/吨； 25/26年度10209张，环比+4张。 逻辑：昨日郑棉主力合约增仓上涨，增仓近3.6万手。近期基本面整体变 化不大，更多为盘面技术性调整后，下方支撑逐步夯实，情绪好转吸引资 金推动上涨。基本面方面整体较为健康，新棉公检处于收尾阶段，本年度 累计进口量仍处于偏低水平，棉花商业库存累库速度不快，表需较好。临 近春节，下游原料采购备货增加，但开机率季节性下降。我们对中长期看 法维持偏强，核心驱动为两点，25/26年度中国棉花供 ...

每经AI快讯，1月29日，钯金期货突破2100美元/盎司，日内涨11.67%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 28 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 1 月 28 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨多跌少，沪铝涨近 6%，集运欧线涨超 4%，沥青涨近 4%，铸造铝合金、沪金、氧化铝涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term rating for the soda ash industry is "volatile" [1] Core Viewpoints - Soda ash capacity utilization remains high, with new capacity gradually ramping up and overall production increasing. There is an expectation of cold - repair for glass production lines near the end of the month, which may further weaken the rigid demand for soda ash. Although high - level exports ease some pressure and anti - involution sentiment provides support, high inventory still restricts price rebound. The short - term futures price may fluctuate, and there is a possibility of pressure when the sentiment fades and the market returns to the weak fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] Summary by Directory Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The main soda ash contract opened lower and closed higher, showing a volatile and upward trend in the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands tightened, indicating short - term volatility. The resistance is near the 60 - day moving average, and the support is near the middle line of the Bollinger Bands. The trading volume increased by 72,467 lots, and the open interest increased by 22,832 lots compared to the previous day. The intraday high was 1206, the low was 1176, and the closing price was 1198, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot market: It was weakly stable. The enterprise equipment had a narrow - range fluctuation, and Tianjin Soda Industry resumed production, leading to a narrow - range increase in supply. Downstream demand was mediocre, with poor restocking willingness and a wait - and - see attitude [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250 yuan/ton, and the basis was 52 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 22, the domestic soda ash output was 771,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3,600 tons or 0.46%. The light soda ash output was 358,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,700 tons; the heavy soda ash output was 412,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 900 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.42%, down 0.40% from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 87.69%, down 2.27% month - on - month; the combined - soda process capacity utilization rate was 77.99%, down 0.89% month - on - month. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 89.89%, up 0.42% month - on - month [2] - Inventory: As of January 26, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,541,000 tons, an increase of 19,800 tons or 1.30% from last Thursday. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 838,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 13,800 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 702,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,000 tons [2] - Demand: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 825,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.80%; the overall shipment rate was 106.98%, a month - on - month increase of 7.27%. The downstream demand for soda ash was average, with poor purchasing enthusiasm, mainly consuming inventory and making low - price rigid - demand purchases [2] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information statistics, the theoretical profit (per double - ton) of the combined - soda process was - 40 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 9.09%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, and the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward, with a slight decline in costs [3] Main Logic Summary - High soda ash capacity utilization and new capacity ramping up lead to increasing production. There is a cold - repair expectation for glass production lines near the end of the month, which may weaken rigid demand. High - level exports and anti - involution sentiment provide some support, but high inventory restricts price rebound. The short - term futures price may fluctuate, and there is a risk of pressure when sentiment fades [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 28 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业矛盾累积，钢矿偏弱震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价偏弱震荡，录得 0.32%日跌幅，量缩仓增。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应增加，而需求表现疲弱，供增需弱局面下基本面持续走弱， 淡季钢价易承压，相对利好则是商品情绪偏暖，预计走势延续低位震荡 运行态势，关注库存变化情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.39%日跌幅，量缩仓增。目前来 看，热卷产量有所回落，而需求同样走弱，供需双减局面下产业格局弱 稳运行，但库存偏高，价格仍易承 ...

本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2 0 2 6 / 0 1 / 2 8 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD PTA 金 信 期 货 P T A 乙 二 醇 日 刊 主力合约：1月28日PTA主力期货合约TA605今天上涨1.24%，基差走强至-64元/吨。 ibaotu.com 日度市场情况 基本面：今日PTA华东地区市场价5250元/吨，较前一交易日上涨30元/吨。成本端布伦特原油大幅上涨到68美元/桶附近；PTA产能利 用率较上一工作日持平至75.83%；周度PTA工厂库存天数3.62天，较上周持平。 主力动向：多头主力增仓 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ 走势预期：当前PTA加工费高位但PTA装置暂无进一步提升负荷的计划。终端织造库存累积；关注聚酯工厂节前提前放假情况，预计 春节前终端需求将转弱，当前原料涨价过快与节前避险心态形成矛盾，短期预计PTA价格跟随成本端高位震荡。 MEG 主力合约：1月28日乙二醇主力期货合约eg2605上涨0.35%，基 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, globally and in Canada, the supply - demand pattern of rapeseed is relatively loose, which restricts its market price. In the domestic market, oil mills are in a shutdown state, supporting the current rapeseed meal spot price. Policy has an impact on the rapeseed and rapeseed meal markets. After continuous previous declines, rapeseed meal has rebounded at a low level recently, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the high - frequency data shows that the supply of Malaysian palm oil continues to decline this month, and exports have increased significantly in the first 25 days. India's cancellation of soybean oil purchase orders may turn to palm oil. Domestically, oil mills are in a shutdown state, and rapeseed oil is in a de - stocking mode, supporting its price. The basis of rapeseed oil remains high. Affected by the strengthening of palm oil, rapeseed oil continues to rise, with increased short - term fluctuations, and a short - term bullish approach is recommended [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active rapeseed oil contract is 9330 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the closing price of the active rapeseed meal contract is 2297 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is 59 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal is - 12 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The position of the main rapeseed oil contract is 297029 lots, down 1269 lots; the position of the main rapeseed meal contract is 940606 lots, down 29805 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is - 11889 lots, up 2345 lots; for rapeseed meal, it is - 217128 lots, up 23127 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 625, unchanged; for rapeseed meal, it is 0, unchanged. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed contract is 646.1 Canadian dollars/ton, up 0.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of the active rapeseed contract is 5600 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 10120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2560 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 10226.25 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 7860.97 yuan/ton, up 49.86 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.91, down 0.01. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract is 790 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract is 263 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan. The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8840 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1280 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9270 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 850 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 560 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual production of rapeseed is 95.27 million tons, up 3 million tons; the annual predicted production of rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total import volume of rapeseed in the current month is 5.56 million tons, up 5.36 million tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit on the disk is 400 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month is 22 million tons, up 5 million tons; the import volume of rapeseed meal in the current month is 23.82 million tons, up 2.35 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.2 million tons, unchanged; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 million tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 25.25 million tons, down 2.15 million tons; the rapeseed oil inventory in the Guangxi region is not specified in the summary part. The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil is 0.2 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal is 27.8 million tons, up 0.8 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of feed is 3008.6 million tons, up 30.7 million tons. The monthly social consumer retail total of catering revenue is 5738 billion yuan, down 319 billion yuan. The monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 525.4 million tons, up 60.6 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 18.53%, up 0.16%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 18.53%, up 0.16%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 16.85%, down 1.28%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 13.67%, down 0.02%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 16.11%, up 0.37%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 16.11%, up 0.39%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 20.97%, down 0.05%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 16.7%, down 0.07% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On January 27, 2026 (Tuesday), ICE rapeseed futures closed almost flat. The March rapeseed futures contract fell 0.40 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 646.70 Canadian dollars per ton. South American soybean is expected to have a high yield, and Brazilian soybeans have entered the early harvest stage, putting pressure on international soybean prices. However, the US soybean export data has improved, and the US soybean crushing remains strong to meet the demand for soybean oil in the expanding bio - fuel industry. The NOPA monthly crushing report shows that the US soybean crushing volume in December 2025 jumped to the second - highest monthly record, supporting the US soybean market price [2].