本报（chinatimes.net.cn）记者刘佳 北京报道 2026年货币政策权威方向，由中央经济工作会议正式定调。 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行。会议分析当前经济形势，部署2026年经济工作，为全 年宏观调控划定核心方向。 会议指出，明年经济工作在政策取向上，要坚持稳中求进、提质增效，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效 应，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，提升宏观经济治理效能。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促进 经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保持 流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点 领域。保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 在多位受访人士看来，此次会议为2026年经济工作定下"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，明确传递出宏 观政策将更加积极有力，以推动宏观经济实现"质的有效提升和量的合理增长"。 值得关注的是，关于总量型货币政策工具，会议将去年的"适时降准降息"调整为"灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种政策工具"，这一表述变化意味着降准降息仍是明年货币政策操作的可选项，同时强调灵活性 ...

Report Title - "2025.12.12 Weekly Report on Shanghai Tin Market: Macroeconomic Improvement Boosts Sentiment, Anticipating Strong Adjustment in Tin Prices" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai tin market is expected to undergo a short - term strong adjustment. Attention should be paid to the support at MA5 and the resistance at the 345,000 level [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the main Shanghai tin contract continued to rise significantly, with a weekly increase of 4.88% and an amplitude of 8.76%. The closing price of the main contract was 333,000 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: - **Macro - level**: The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out that a moderately loose monetary policy will continue, and various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be used flexibly and efficiently. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market, resolve local government debt risks, and boost consumption [5] - **Fundamental - level**: - **Supply**: Tin ore imports in China are still relatively tight, and tin ore processing fees remain low. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar and the end of the rainy season have provided some incremental supply, the overall import volume of tin ore is still at a low level. Refined tin production is expected to be limited, and imports are likely to decline [5] - **Demand**: Downstream buyers show purchasing interest when tin prices decline, but rising prices suppress transactions. Inventory has increased slightly [5] - **Technical - level**: There is a significant increase in trading volume and open interest, and the market sentiment is bullish [5] 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of December 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai tin was 332,720 yuan/ton, up 4.98% from December 5. As of December 11, the closing price of LME tin was 41,880 US dollars/ton, up 3.31% from December 5. The basis of Shanghai tin was 0 yuan/ton, down from 150 yuan/ton last week [10] - **Ratio Changes**: As of December 12, 2025, the current ratio of Shanghai tin to Shanghai nickel was 2.86, an increase of 0.16 from December 5. As of December 11, the Shanghai - London ratio of tin was 7.61, a decrease of 0.17 from December 4 [14] - **Open Interest**: As of December 12, 2025, the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai tin was - 1960 lots, an increase of 2168 lots from December 8. The open interest of Shanghai tin was 118,433 lots, an increase of 10,033 lots or 9.26% from December 5 [19] 3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - side**: - **Import and Production**: In October 2025, the import of tin ore and concentrates was 11,632.30 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.36%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 103,020.65 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25.54%. The refined tin production in October was 15,618 tons, and the cumulative production from January to October was 142,971 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.25% [25][26] - **Processing Fees**: On December 12, 2025, the processing fee for 60% tin concentrate was 6,500 yuan/ton, and that for 40% tin concentrate was 10,500 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from December 11 [31] - **Import Profit and Loss**: As of December 11, 2025, the import profit and loss of tin was - 2,471.06 yuan/ton, an increase of 5,186.86 yuan/ton from December 5. In October, the import volume of refined tin was 526.12 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 58.55% and a year - on - year decrease of 82.75% [34][35] - **Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the total LME tin inventory was 3,695 tons, an increase of 520 tons or 16.38% from December 4. As of December 12, the inventory of Shanghai tin was 7,391 tons, an increase of 526 tons or 7.66% from last week [43] - **Demand - side**: - **Semiconductor Index**: On December 11, 2025, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was 7,411.48, an increase of 2.71% from December 4 [46] - **Integrated Circuit Output**: From January to October 2025, the integrated circuit output was 386.6 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.52% [47] - **Tin - Plated Sheet**: As of October 2025, the tin - plated sheet production was 110,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10%. The export volume was 222,589.82 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.63% [50]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - The possibility of a trend - based economic recovery in 2026 is low. To cope with uncertainties, monetary policy still needs to have aggregate - based loosening. The report maintains the judgment of two interest rate cuts next year, and the bond market can be optimistic. In the short term, the bond market adjustment may have basically ended, and the bond market pressure in the first quarter of next year may be lower than expected. The bond market interest rate may break through the previous low [4]. Summary by Related Catalog Economic Goal - The economic growth target for next year may remain at around 5%, but there are still many old problems and new challenges, and it will be difficult to achieve [6]. Fiscal Policy - Compared with last year, the expression of fiscal policy has weakened. The deficit rate may remain at 4%, with 5 trillion yuan in new special bonds, 2 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds, and 2 trillion yuan in special refinancing bonds. Considering macro uncertainties, some new special bonds may be revitalized in the second half of the year. The net financing of government bonds may be about 1.5 trillion yuan more than this year [7]. Local Finance - Changing from "increasing local autonomous financial resources" to "attaching importance to solving local fiscal difficulties" does not provide more incremental information [8]. Debt Resolution - Debt resolution remains the focus of local work next year. The meeting requires actively and orderly resolving local government debt risks, urging localities to take the initiative to resolve debts, and not allowing illegal new implicit debts, and also requires accelerating the clearance of arrears to enterprises [10]. Monetary Policy - The tone of monetary policy is still "implementing a moderately loose monetary policy", and the modifier for reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate cuts has changed from "opportunistically" to "flexibly and efficiently". The central bank may not conduct aggregate - based loosening based on financial data changes but anchor economic growth, inflation, and boosting social confidence. There may be structural policies to support key areas. The report expects two interest rate cuts next year, one at the beginning of next year [11]. Expanding Domestic Demand - The expression of expanding domestic demand has weakened. Although it mentions "promoting investment to stop falling and stabilize", the "optimization - based" means seem insufficient. "Continuing to play the role of new policy - based tools" and "deeply promoting energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation in key industries" may be important measures next year [12]. Real Estate - In the arrangement of key work, the priority of real estate has dropped, and the expression has also weakened. The urgency of real - estate work has decreased [13]. Anti - Involution - Anti - involution continues to be steadily promoted. It emphasizes that anti - involution needs to be based on the construction of a national unified market. Regulating tax incentives and fiscal subsidy policies may reduce duplicate production capacity initiated by local governments, but demand will also be affected, and price recovery may face certain resistance [14]. Reform of Small and Medium - sized Financial Institutions - The reform of small and medium - sized financial institutions will accelerate mergers. The trend of large institutions merging small and medium - sized ones is clear. More than 350 small and medium - sized banks have exited the market this year, and state - owned large banks have participated in integration activities [15]. Policy Rhythm - The demand for policies to be implemented earlier has weakened, and the possibility of a good start in the first quarter of next year needs further observation [16].

"在有效需求不足、物价持续低迷的背景下，明年降准降息可期，结构性货币政策工具有望持续发 力。"管涛表示。此外，通过完善利率自律机制、综合治理金融体系的内卷式竞争、建立健全做好金 融"五篇大文章"的体制机制，能够引导金融资源更多支持科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域，进一步畅 通货币政策传导。 中央经济工作会议还指出，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。 "在内外部不确定因素综合影响下，明年人民币汇率有望延续双向波动态势。"管涛表示，这是中央经济 工作会议连续第四年强调"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"，体现了既要防范汇率过度贬 值、也要防范汇率过度升值的政策取向，有助于遏制外汇市场的顺周期单边羊群效应，为明年推动经济 持续回升创造一个平稳的外汇金融环境。 来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 范子萌）中央经济工作会议指出，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。把促 进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具，保 持流动性充裕，畅通货币政策传导机制，引导金融机构加力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重 点领域。 对此，中银证券全球首席经济学家管 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View The Central Economic Work Conference further clarified the direction and tasks of next year's economic work. There are new refinements in some areas compared to the Political Bureau meeting, including releasing many signals in traditional growth - stabilizing areas, emphasizing work related to prices, and focusing on "quality and efficiency improvement" and "cross - cycle" structural adjustment. Next year's economy is expected to continue to stabilize, with the repair of short - boards such as prices and more prominent economic development quality and efficiency [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macroeconomic Outlook - The Central Economic Work Conference continued to emphasize科技创新 and had new refinements in traditional growth - stabilizing areas, such as clearly mentioning "flexibly and efficiently using reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts", "maintaining sufficient liquidity", and focusing on real estate with the focus on "controlling increments, reducing inventories, and optimizing supplies". It is expected that the deficit rate will remain and the total deficit scale will continue to expand moderately next year. These measures are conducive to improving the growth expectation [8]. - In terms of prices, the policy shows an attitude of attention. It is expected that the certainty of price repair next year will further increase [8]. - Next year's policy will focus on "quality and efficiency improvement" and "cross - cycle" structural adjustment in addition to stabilizing growth [8]. Commodity Analysis Precious Metals - **Silver**: The price reached a new high, with London silver accelerating to $64.3 per ounce. The current spot contradiction is difficult to solve, with low domestic inventory and a slight increase in overseas lease rate. There is a risk of a squeeze in both Shanghai and London. The market is expected to continue to be strong, but attention should be paid to the pressure level around $65 [10]. - **Gold**: The price showed an upward trend, with factors such as expected interest rate cuts and macro - economic policies influencing it [21]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The price rose due to the decline of the US dollar. China's copper imports increased in November, and Chile's copper exports also increased year - on - year. The trend intensity is strong [25][27]. - **Zinc**: The price is short - term strong with internal and external market resonance. Although the most severe stage of overseas supply shortage has passed, the risk of low inventory still exists. There is an expectation of zinc element surplus next year, but the short - term price has upward elasticity [11]. - **Lead**: The domestic inventory increased, and the price was under pressure [31]. - **Tin**: There was a new supply disturbance. The price showed a certain fluctuation [34]. - **Aluminum**: The price center moved up. The supply - demand surplus of alumina remained unchanged, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [37]. - **Nickel**: The structural surplus situation has changed, but the game contradiction remains unchanged. Stainless steel's supply and demand continue to be weak, and the cost - support logic is enhanced [46]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: The price dropped significantly at night due to factors such as the decline of crude oil, weakening demand, and warehouse receipt pressure. It is expected to maintain a low - level shock in the short - term and face downward pressure in the medium - to - long - term [13]. - **PX**: The demand is seasonally weakening, but the supply is still tight, showing a high - level shock market. The overall supply - demand is tight, and there is an expectation of supply contraction in the future [86]. - **PTA**: The price is in a high - level shock situation, supported by the cost of PX. The 05 contract can hold a long - PX and short - PTA strategy [87]. - **MEG**: The trend is weak. Attention should be paid to the support of unplanned maintenance on the market. The price is expected to operate in the range of 3600 - 3900 [88]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The reduction in production is not clear, and the rebound height is limited [183]. - **Soybean Oil**: The driving force from US soybeans is insufficient, and the price fluctuates mainly [183]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans rose, and the domestic soybean meal showed a strong - side shock [189]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot price. The price showed a certain fluctuation [193]. - **Sugar**: The price is in a range - bound shock [196]. - **Cotton**: The price is in a strong - side shock, and attention should be paid to downstream demand [200]. - **Eggs**: The price is in an adjustment shock [206]. - **Hogs**: The price increase due to cooling was less than expected, and the warehouse receipt increased. The trend is weak [208]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of oil mills. The price showed a certain stability [212]. Others - **Iron Ore**: The downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high [57]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand data is weak, and the price is in a low - level shock [60][61]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: The spot price is short - term firm, and the price is in a wide - range shock [65]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The price is in a wide - range shock [70]. - **Log**: The price is in a low - level shock [74]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The short - term sentiment is optimistic, and the medium - term is a shock market [156]. - **Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip**: There is medium - term pressure, and a long - TA and short - PF/PR strategy can be held [170]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [173]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is in a short - term shock [178].

12 月美联储如期降息，更显"鸽派"。一是鲍威尔成功管控内部分歧，仅 2 票反对 降息。二是启动准备金管理型扩表，自 12 月起每月以 400 亿美元购买短期国债，释 放流动性。三是美联储上修 GDP 预测并下修通胀预测，指向 2026 年美国经济回暖， 通胀可控。展望看，明年一季度美联储或暂缓降息，待二季度新任美联储主席上台后， 自 6 月起至 11 月中选前的 4 次议息会议上择机降息 2-3 次。 2025 年 12 月 12 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 总量研究 【宏观】如期降息，扩表在途——2025 年 12 月 FOMC 会议点评 | 外汇市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 中间价 | | 涨跌 | | 美元兑人民币 | 7.0753 | -0.03 | | 欧元兑人民币 | 8.2258 | -0.14 | | 日元兑人民币 | 0.0451 | -0.64 | | 港币兑人民币 | 0.9093 | -0.06 | | 利率市场 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回购市场 前加权平均利率% | | 涨跌 BP | | DR001 | 1. ...

新华财经北京12月12日电（记者翟卓）12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，分析当前经济 形势并部署2026年工作。会议强调"要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策""灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政 策工具""保持流动性充裕"等。 再综合考虑明年经济金融形势以及物价走势，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青判断，2026年政策性降息幅 度或达0.2至0.3个百分点，降准幅度有望达到1个百分点。 "若从稳定明年一季度宏观经济运行等角度出发，不排除今年底或明年初就有降息降准落地的可能。而 着眼于推动房地产市场止跌回稳，2026年还有可能引导5年期以上贷款市场报价利率（LPR）单独下 行。"王青说。 业内专家表示，总的来看，货币政策延续了"适度宽松"基调，降准降息仍然可期，但也会更加注重"相 机抉择"以提高实施质效，结构性货币政策工具或再度"量增价降"，政策落地成效则有望成为下阶段宏 观政策部门的主要关注对象。 ——延续"适度宽松"政策基调强调"灵活高效"降准降息 会议明确，要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。"该表述延续了去年中央经济工作会议基调，表明我国 在'十五五'开局之年仍需以适度宽松的货币金融环境支持实体经济高质量发展。 ...

2025.12.11 本文字数：2300，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 |第一财经 亓宁 临近年末，全球经济走势和政策取向是市场最关注的话题。近日，世界银行、国际货币基金组织、亚洲 开发银行等国际机构密集上调了2025年中国经济增速预期。 展望2026年，全球经济怎么走？中国经济的韧性支撑来自哪里？主要经济体货币政策还有多大空间？12 月11日，渣打银行大中华区及北亚首席经济学家丁爽在一场交流会上提到，考虑到美国GDP增长加 速、通胀压力不减，明年美联储可能不会再降息。他判断，中国明年一季度和二季度将分别降准和降息 一次，但未来更多将依靠其他货币政策工具维持流动性充裕，央行国债买卖的作用会越来越大。 美联储还有多大降息空间？ 近期，多家国际机构密集上调了2025年中国经济增速预期。其中，世界银行、国际货币基金组织、亚洲 开发银行分别上调0.4、0.2、0.1个百分点。 丁爽认为，中国经济已经从短期的风险应对模式转换到长期的经济转型模式，尤其随着外部环境变化， 通过技术投资、产业升级提升劳动生产率、培育新的经济增长点越来越受到重视。 展望2026年，丁爽认为，相较于外贸支撑贡献更大、投资明显拖累增长、消费前高后低的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference outlines key tasks and policy arrangements for 2026, emphasizing the need for economic potential exploration, policy support, and reform innovation to achieve quality and reasonable growth in the economy [2][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for 2026 will maintain a "more proactive" stance, with a fiscal deficit rate expected to be no lower than 4%, reflecting the need to stimulate economic growth and address local fiscal challenges [3][4]. - The fiscal deficit for this year is set at 5.66 trillion yuan, a significant increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, indicating a strong commitment to using fiscal tools to boost demand [3][4]. - There is a clear trend towards increasing spending on healthcare, education, and social security, highlighting a focus on "investing in people" [4][5]. Monetary Policy - The monetary policy will adopt a "more proactive" approach, with an emphasis on flexible and efficient use of tools like interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio adjustments to maintain liquidity [6][7]. - The expectation is for 1-2 instances of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a stable financing environment [6][7]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be enhanced to support key areas such as domestic demand expansion and technological innovation [7]. Domestic Demand Expansion - Expanding domestic demand is prioritized, with specific policies aimed at increasing residents' income and stabilizing investment [8]. - The conference emphasizes the need for a plan to boost urban and rural residents' income, aligning with the broader goal of enhancing consumption capacity [8]. - Investment strategies will focus on increasing central budget investments and optimizing project implementation to stabilize investment levels [8]. Real Estate Market - The conference stresses the importance of stabilizing the real estate market, with "de-stocking" identified as a key strategy for 2026 [10][11]. - Measures will include city-specific policies to control new supply and encourage the acquisition of existing properties for affordable housing [11][12]. Capital Market Reforms - The conference highlights the need for continuous deepening of capital market reforms, focusing on enhancing the market's ability to support technological innovation and the real economy [13][14]. - Reforms will include improving the adaptability of capital market systems and encouraging long-term investments [13][14]. Innovation and Technology - The establishment of three major international technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area is emphasized as a core strategy for fostering new economic momentum [15][16]. - These centers will leverage existing research and development resources to enhance China's competitiveness in global technology [15][16][17]. Market Environment and Competition - The conference outlines plans to optimize the market environment and reduce "involution" competition, aiming to enhance economic vitality and support high-quality development [18][19]. - A nationwide unified market construction regulation is proposed to address existing regulatory gaps and improve market efficiency [18]. International Trade and Investment - The conference calls for promoting more regional and bilateral trade and investment agreements, reinforcing China's commitment to multilateral trade systems [20][21]. - The focus will be on expanding high-standard free trade agreements and enhancing trade relations with partners [20][21].

本文字数：2300，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 亓宁 临近年末，全球经济走势和政策取向是市场最关注的话题。近日，世界银行、国际货币基金组织、亚 洲开发银行等国际机构密集上调了2025年中国经济增速预期。 展望2026年，全球经济怎么走？中国经济的韧性支撑来自哪里？主要经济体货币政策还有多大空 间？12月11日，渣打银行大中华区及北亚首席经济学家丁爽在一场交流会上提到， 考虑到美国 GDP增长加速、通胀压力不减，明年美联储可能不会再降息。 他判断， 中国明年一季度和二季度将 分别降准和降息一次，但未来更多将依靠其他货币政策工具维持流动性充裕，央行国债买卖的作用会 越来越大。 美联储还有多大降息空间？ "明年全球经济增长率预计和今年持平。"丁爽认为，全球经济明年能够维持3.4%的增长率，但结构 上会发生一定变化：一是全球贸易增长较今年会放缓；二是消费推动力下降，投资驱动增强；三是多 数经济体降息周期接近尾声，经济增长更多将来自财政政策支持。 2025.12. 11 12月8日召开的中共中央政治局会议提到，明年继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政 策，发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和 ...