| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2506 | TS2509 | TF2506 | TF2509 | T2506 | T2509 | TL2506 | TL2509 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.366 | 102.628 | 106.100 | 106.385 | 109.000 | 109.145 | 120.76 | 121 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.332 | 102.592 | 106.070 | 106.345 | 109.120 | 109.245 | 120.98 | 121.24 | | | 涨跌 | 0.034 | 0.036 | 0.030 | 0.040 | -0.120 | -0.100 | -0.220 | -0.240 | | | 涨跌幅 | 0.03% | 0 ...

不过，川普现在大打贸易战，就是想让制造业回流美国，他肯定希望美元走软。从近几个月美元指数持续下跌也能看出来。所以我觉得人民币兑美元不可能 大幅升值，而是在一定区间内缓慢升值。 三、从大盘技术面看市场因为消息上证指数创业板指数都跌破60日线。 从这次发布的信号来看，央行降准降息估计很快就要来了。一旦降准降息落地，市场就会注入更多资金，资金流动性增强，这对市场来说是个中长期的利好 消息。二季度"适时降准降息"的时机已经差不多成熟了，落地时间可能会比预期提前。 国家统计局的数据显示，4月制造业PMI指数为49.0%，比上个月下降了1.5个百分点，回落到了临界点以下；服务业PMI指数为50.1%，比3月下降了0.2个百 分点，但还在扩张区间。这些数据也表明，二季度"适时降准降息"的时机已经成熟，落地时间可能会提前。 二、人民币开始升值了，美元兑人民币已经突破了7.2关口了。 在岸人民币汇率因为假期没交易，但一般来说它会比离岸人民币更强，所以明天开盘肯定会有上涨。人民币升值对中国资产来说是个好消息，短期内对市场 刺激作用会很明显。 一、央行突击降息！央行4月MLF超额续作5000亿元后，市场对二季度降息30BP的预期升 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Before the implementation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, the funding rate is expected to continue to approach the policy rate. The probability of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts in the second quarter is relatively high, but the specific timing needs to be observed based on the overall rhythm of the package of policies. The reserve requirement ratio cut in Q2 has a high probability of implementation, and the central bank is likely to cut interest rates in Q2. The funding rate in May still has room to decline further [2][3]. - Although the market's reaction to the statement of "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" has significantly dulled, considering the current policy focus and the impact of trade frictions on the fundamentals, reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts are still expected to be implemented within the second quarter [3]. - The increase in MLF volume in April is likely not to replace reserve requirement ratio cuts but rather to extend the maturity of medium - term liquidity injection. The necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts has increased as the long - term liquidity released by the September 2024 reserve requirement ratio cut has been basically exhausted [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 March: Counter - seasonal Decline in Excess Reserve Ratio, but Increased Bank Lending Kept the Funding Market Stable - In March, the excess reserve ratio decreased by 0.2 percentage points month - on - month to 1.0%. The main reason was the significant decline in the central bank's claims on other depository corporations, which was much higher than the net withdrawal through OMO and the decline in other depository corporations' liabilities to the central bank [6]. - Although the excess reserve ratio decreased in March, the central bank may have supported banks implicitly to stabilize the funding market, as the bank's net lending increased significantly, and the funding rate center decreased compared to February. However, the funding gap index was relatively high, and the central bank's desired funding rate was still higher than the policy rate [8]. - In March, the increase in required reserves due to high credit growth and a significant decline in non - bank deposits, the decrease in government deposits, cash inflows, and the decline in foreign exchange holdings were all within the expected range. The use progress of special bonds was relatively fast, but the expenditure rhythm of replacement bonds was slightly lower than expected [10]. 3.2 April: Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts Did Not Materialize, but Increased Bank Lending Continued to Push Down the Funding Rate Center - In April, the general fiscal deficit was expected to be at a neutral level in recent years. The government bond supply pressure was higher than in previous years, but the expenditure of replacement bonds might lead to additional government deposit injections. The government deposits were expected to increase slightly by about 10 billion yuan, and the consumption of excess reserves was significantly weaker than in previous years [12]. - Credit issuance in April was expected to be weak, and the required reserve scale might decrease by 30 billion yuan, which would supplement liquidity. The currency issuance was expected to decrease by about 100 billion yuan, and foreign exchange holdings might continue to withdraw about 50 billion yuan [12]. - The central bank's net injection of pledged reverse repurchase in April was 320.8 billion yuan, MLF was over - renewed by 500 billion yuan, but the net withdrawal of outright reverse repurchase was 500 billion yuan. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations were expected to increase by about 320 billion yuan month - on - month. The excess reserve ratio in April was expected to increase by 0.1 percentage points to 1.1%, but it was still at a relatively low level in non - quarter - end months [12][13]. - The reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts did not materialize in April. The central bank might wait due to the need to coordinate with a package of policies. However, due to increased fundamental uncertainties, the central bank might support banks implicitly, pushing up bank net lending and making the funding rate approach the policy rate. The gap between R and DR reached the lowest level since May 2024 [31][32]. - The cross - month progress of various institutions in April was generally fast, at a relatively high level in the past five years, which kept the month - end liquidity relatively stable [34]. 3.3 May: Increased Government Bond Supply Pressure, and the Excess Reserve Ratio May Decline Again - In May, although the general fiscal deficit was expected to be at a relatively high level in recent years, and the expenditure of replacement bonds might lead to additional government deposit injections, the government bond supply pressure was significantly higher than in previous years. The government deposits were expected to increase by about 360 billion yuan [39]. - The required reserve in May was expected to increase seasonally, withdrawing about 30 billion yuan. The currency issuance was expected to decrease by about 100 billion yuan, supplementing the funding market. Foreign exchange holdings might continue to withdraw about 50 billion yuan [39]. - In the open market, the balance of pledged reverse repurchase at the end of May was assumed to drop to about 1 trillion yuan, with a net withdrawal of about 620 billion yuan. However, considering the significant increase in government bond net supply pressure, the central bank might use MLF and outright reverse repurchase to release medium - and long - term liquidity. The central bank's claims on other depository corporations were expected to decrease by about 140 billion yuan month - on - month. The excess reserve ratio in May was expected to be about 1.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from April, at a historically low level [39]. - The Politburo meeting in April mentioned "timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts" again. Although the market's reaction was dull, considering the current policy focus and the impact of trade frictions, reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts were still expected to be implemented within the second quarter, but the specific timing needed to be observed [52]. - The increase in MLF volume in April was likely not to replace reserve requirement ratio cuts but to extend the maturity of medium - term liquidity injection. The necessity of reserve requirement ratio cuts has increased as the long - term liquidity released by the September 2024 reserve requirement ratio cut has been basically exhausted [53][56]. - Due to the increased unexpected changes in excess reserves and bank lending in recent years, the actual impact of reserve requirement ratio cuts has decreased. The central bank's attitude towards the funding market and policy rates may be more important. The central bank is likely to cut interest rates in Q2, but DR007 needs to return close to the policy rate first. Although the DR007 rate center may not directly drop to around 1.5% in May, the funding rate still has room to decline [59].

Core Viewpoint - The April PMI data indicates a decline in manufacturing while the service sector remains in expansion, suggesting potential policy adjustments in response to economic conditions [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for April is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the critical threshold [1][2]. - Production and new orders indices are at 49.8% and 49.2%, respectively, both showing declines of 2.8 and 2.6 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing production and market demand [2]. - High-tech manufacturing PMI remains in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point drop, demonstrating resilience and strong support from market demand and policy [3]. - The decline in manufacturing PMI is attributed to external economic changes, particularly the impact of increased tariffs from the U.S., and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease following the peak in March [2][3]. Service Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, but still indicates expansion [4]. - The service sector PMI is at 50.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, with seasonal factors contributing to this change [5]. - The construction PMI is reported at 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in real estate investment, although civil engineering activity shows a significant increase, indicating potential for future growth [5]. Economic Outlook - The expectation is that domestic demand will counterbalance the slowdown in external demand, becoming a key support for manufacturing sector performance [6]. - There is a prediction that the manufacturing PMI may remain in the contraction zone in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to increased policy support [7]. - The likelihood of policy rate cuts is increasing as the manufacturing PMI remains in contraction for two consecutive months, with expectations for timely adjustments in monetary policy [1][7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent reduction in the scale of the central bank's reverse repurchase operations may signal a potential interest rate cut, as it reflects a shift in liquidity management strategies aimed at supporting economic growth [1][2][3]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - On April 30, the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 1.2 trillion yuan, marking the first reduction in scale since the tool's inception, with a decrease of 500 billion yuan [1]. - The central bank has not conducted any treasury bond transactions for four consecutive months, indicating a cautious approach to market liquidity management [1][2]. - Analysts suggest that the reduction in reverse repo operations does not necessarily indicate a tightening of market liquidity, as the overall medium-term liquidity injection remains stable [2][3]. Group 2: Potential Rate Cuts - The central bank's recent actions, including a 600 billion yuan MLF operation and significant reverse repo operations, suggest a strategy to maintain liquidity ahead of the May Day holiday [2][3]. - The Central Political Bureau's meeting emphasized the need for proactive macroeconomic policies, including potential interest rate cuts to support the real economy [3]. - Analysts predict a possible 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in May, which could release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [3][4]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - Expectations are that policy rates and deposit rates may continue to decline, with the LPR potentially decreasing by 10 basis points by the end of the second quarter [4]. - The timing of interest rate cuts may be influenced by various economic factors, including growth stability and external trade conditions [4]. - There is a possibility that RRR cuts may occur before interest rate reductions, as the central bank seeks to manage liquidity in response to increased government bond supply [4].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the bond market experienced a rapid bull run in early April, followed by a period of stabilization, with the 10-year treasury yield fluctuating between 1.62% and 1.67% during this consolidation phase [1][11][12] - In May, the funding environment is expected to remain supportive for the bond market, with a historical trend showing that funding rates typically ease further in May compared to April, aided by a reduction in tax payment pressures [2][20][28] - The report highlights three key factors influencing the bond market in May: tariffs, economic fundamentals, and policy responses, with a focus on the ongoing US-China tariff negotiations and their potential impact on market sentiment [3][35][52] Group 2 - The report notes that the central bank's stance has softened since April, leading to a return of funding rates to a "reasonable state," which is expected to support the bond market [2][28][31] - It is projected that government bond supply will significantly increase in May, with net issuance expected to reach 1.53 trillion yuan, nearly doubling from April, which may create short-term fluctuations in funding costs [2][31][32] - The report outlines three scenarios for investment strategies in May, emphasizing the importance of selecting short-term bonds as the most favorable option, while also considering longer-duration positions to capitalize on potential rate cuts [5][54][56]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry [4][6]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that policy adjustments are being driven by fundamental economic pressures, suggesting that the current policy measures may exceed those seen in 2008 and 2014 [4]. - Real estate is viewed as an early-cycle indicator, making it a key economic barometer [4]. - The competitive landscape in the industry is improving, with leading state-owned enterprises and select mixed-ownership and private companies expected to benefit more in the future [4]. - The report continues to favor investment in first-tier and select second- and third-tier cities, which have shown better performance during sales rebounds [4]. - Supply-side policies, including land storage and management of idle land, are critical areas to monitor, with first- and second-tier cities likely to benefit more [4]. Summary by Sections 1. New Housing Market - In the week, new housing transaction area across 30 cities reached 2.074 million square meters, a 22.9% increase month-on-month and a 26.2% increase year-on-year [2][25]. - First-tier cities accounted for 658,000 square meters, up 40.5% month-on-month and 32.6% year-on-year [2][25]. - Second-tier cities saw transactions of 919,000 square meters, a 9.2% increase month-on-month and 28.1% year-on-year [2][25]. - Third-tier cities recorded 496,000 square meters, up 31.4% month-on-month and 15.7% year-on-year [2][25]. 2. Second-hand Housing Market - The second-hand housing market experienced a total transaction area of 1.793 million square meters across 14 sample cities, a 27.2% decrease month-on-month but a 58.6% increase year-on-year [2][33]. - First-tier cities recorded 765,000 square meters, down 19.6% month-on-month [2][33]. - Second-tier cities saw 754,000 square meters, down 37.0% month-on-month [2][33]. - Third-tier cities had 275,000 square meters, down 13.0% month-on-month [2][33]. 3. Credit Bond Issuance - In the week, 9 credit bonds were issued by real estate companies, totaling 4.531 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.237 billion yuan from the previous week [3][43]. - The net financing amount was -1.265 billion yuan, an increase of 44.6% from the previous week [3][43]. - The majority of bonds issued were rated AAA, constituting 61.8% of the total [3][43]. 4. Policy Review - The report highlights that monetary policy is a key macroeconomic tool influencing the real estate cycle, with expectations for new housing loan rates to potentially drop below 3% in the future [1][11].

房地产开发 2025W18：受五一假期影响，本周二手房成交环比走弱 降准降息或已在路上，未来新发房贷利率有望下破 3%。据央行，2025 年 第一季度全国新发放商业性个人住房贷款加权平均利率为 3.11%，与 2024 年四季度接近，相较 5 年期以上 LPR 减点约 50bp。主要是自 2024 年 11 月以来，5 年期以上 LPR 报价保持 3.6%不变。中央在多次会议提到 "适时降准降息"，考虑到外部环境的急剧变化和冲击，我们认为降准降 息或已在路上，未来全国平均新发房贷利率有望下破 3%。货币政策作为 宏观调控关键手段，对房地产大周期影响深远，一方面减轻购房信贷负担， 另一方面少部分城市贷款成本或将逐步靠拢住房租金回报率，对楼市的稳 定产生一定积极效果。 行情回顾：本周申万房地产指数累计变动幅度为-3.0%，落后沪深 300 指 数 2.61 个百分点，在 31 个申万一级行业排名第 31 名。 新房：本周30个城市新房成交面积为207.4万平方米，环比提升22.9%， 同比提升 26.2%，其中样本一线城市的新房成交面积为 65.8 万方，环比 +40.5%，同比+32.6%；样本二线城市为 91 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the significant increase in expectations for monetary policy easing in China during the second quarter of 2025, with a focus on timely reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to support the real economy [1][2][6] - Analysts predict that the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) may be lowered by 0.5 percentage points, releasing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term funds, while interest rates may decrease by 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points [2][3] - The driving factors for this policy shift include weak domestic demand and external pressures, with a notable decline in consumer spending and investment willingness, as well as potential trade tensions impacting exports [2][3] Group 2 - The policy path suggests that RRR cuts will be prioritized over interest rate reductions, as RRR adjustments can quickly replenish banks' long-term funds without directly impacting the currency exchange rate [5] - If the anticipated RRR and interest rate cuts are implemented, a transmission chain is expected to form, leading to increased liquidity, lower financing costs, and a rebound in consumption and investment [6] - The capital market is likely to be the biggest beneficiary of these policies, with expectations of enhanced valuation recovery in A-shares and structural opportunities in blue-chip and technology sectors [6][7] Group 3 - The outlook indicates that after the policy implementation in the second quarter, improved economic data and increased market confidence may create a positive feedback loop [9] - The collaboration of monetary policy with fiscal and industrial policies is crucial, particularly in guiding funds towards strategic areas such as technology and green initiatives [9] - The anticipated monetary easing is viewed as a critical step for China's economy to achieve high-quality development amidst global economic challenges and domestic transformation pressures [9]

Core Viewpoint - In April, the People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a total of 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, marking the first reduction in the scale of this policy tool since its inception, which is interpreted as a potential precursor to future reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts aimed at supporting economic growth [3][5][6]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - The PBOC announced a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price level bidding for 1.2 trillion yuan in reverse repos, with 700 billion yuan for 3-month terms and 500 billion yuan for 6-month terms [3][5]. - The April operations saw a reduction of 500 billion yuan compared to previous months, coinciding with the maturity of similar amounts in reverse repos [3][5]. - The reduction in reverse repo operations does not indicate a tightening of liquidity but may pave the way for future RRR cuts to enhance monetary policy effectiveness [3][6]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has a diverse set of monetary policy tools, including short-term reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF), with reverse repos serving as a medium to short-term liquidity injection tool [5]. - Since October 2024, the PBOC has conducted seven reverse repo operations with varying scales, indicating a strategic approach to liquidity management [5][6]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Analysts suggest that the reduction in reverse repo operations and the increase in MLF operations may signal an upcoming RRR cut, which could inject significant long-term liquidity into the market [6][10]. - The PBOC has indicated a willingness to adjust monetary policy based on domestic and international economic conditions, with expectations for RRR cuts and interest rate reductions to support the real economy [8][9]. - Forecasts suggest a potential RRR cut of 0.5 percentage points and a reduction in interest rates by 0.3 percentage points in May, which would enhance credit demand and support economic stability [10].