转自：新华财经 新华财经上海1月12日电（葛佳明） 美国司法部对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查一事持续发酵，引发 全球市场避险情绪升温，黄金、白银等贵金属持续拉升，美元指数下挫。 当地时间11日晚，美联储主席鲍威尔通过美联储官网和官方社交账号发布视频声明，证实自己正面临联 邦检察官的刑事调查。调查内容涉及美联储对其华盛顿总部大楼的翻修工程，以及鲍威尔是否就该项目 的范围向国会撒谎。 鲍威尔称，特朗普政府因他2025年夏天对美国国会所作证词，威胁对他提起刑事指控，司法部已于当地 时间1月9日向美联储发出传票。鲍威尔认为这是"借口"，目的是就美联储降息问题进一步向他施 压。"（遭刑事指控威胁）只因美联储基于对公共利益的最佳评估来设定利率，而非遵循总统的偏好。" 特朗普近期表示，他已决定了新任美联储主席人选，预计将很快宣布决定。目前，市场预测当选下一任 美联储主席概率排名前三的人选分别为，美国国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特，前美联储理事凯文·沃 什以及美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒。 分析师认为，鲍威尔频繁遭到特朗普攻击，预示着如果新任美联储主席未能兑现特朗普的期望，可能仍 将面临不确定性。特朗普明确表示，他提名的美联储 ...

1月12日，地缘政治风险的急剧上升，直接刺激了避险资产需求，推动现货黄金价格强势上涨。周一（1 月12日）亚市时段，现货黄金延续前两个交易日涨势，截至9：00，日内涨幅约1.7%，一度触及4601美 元/盎司的历史新高，目前有所回落，现交投于每盎司4580美元附近。现货白银今日早盘时刻也刷新历 史高点触及84美元。 基本消息面： 地缘政治风险全面升温成为首要推手。近期美伊紧张关系骤然升级，对全球市场构成冲击；一方面，伊 朗国内因经济危机爆发大规模抗议，局势动荡；另一方面，美国总统特朗普公开威胁可能采取军事等方 式进行干预，以支持抗议者。当地时间11日晚间，以色列国防军表示，一周前，以军曾通知黎巴嫩政府 军该地点存在军事活动，但相关基础设施未被完全拆除，因此决定再次采取行动，当天再次对黎巴嫩境 内一处真主党使用的地下武器储存设施实施空袭。欧洲方面，俄乌战场持续陷僵持，乌克兰首都基辅曾 响起强烈爆炸声，虽然媒体新闻并无报道北约实质进驻乌克兰，但钱到位，人到位，已经是一个事实。 美国联邦检察官已对美联储主席鲍威尔展开刑事调查，该调查由特朗普任命的检察官主导，被广泛视为 特朗普政府因利率分歧而对美联储施加的政治压力， ...

美国降息预期升温叠加地缘风险加剧等因素推动下，1月12日国际贵金属价格大涨，金银价格盘中均刷 新历史高点。 国内期货市场上，沪金期货主力合约盘中涨超3%，最高升至1031.3元/克；沪银期货主力合约盘中涨超 14%，截至下午收盘，最高升至20998元/千克。 "实物供需长期失衡仍是贵金属本次突破历史高点的核心驱动力。此外，短期价格再度突破也因近期美 伊紧张关系骤然升级，叠加美国总统特朗普近期有关侵占格陵兰岛等激进言论，对全球市场构成冲 击。"上海钢联稀贵金属资讯部贵金属分析师黄廷分析，2025年全球白银供需缺口预计达2693吨，连续 第五年短缺，主因供应端增量有限，而投资需求近年增长显著，同时制造业消费量预期波动凸显结构性 短缺，支撑价格中枢上移。COMEX白银实物交割需求加剧库存紧张，2025年12月多头交割需求激增， 形成对空头"逼仓"格局推动价格加速上涨。 外盘方面，COMEX黄金期货主力合约盘中涨逾2%，最高触及4612.7美元/盎司；COMEX白银期货主 力合约盘中涨逾6%，最高触及84.57美元/盎司。 黄加奇认为，目前黄金、白银均位于历史高位，且短期急涨幅度较大，技术形态上方阻力有所加大，且 短 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant fluctuations in precious metals, driven by changes in margin requirements and adjustments in commodity index weights, leading to a rebound in precious metals prices following disappointing non-farm payroll data [3] - The report emphasizes a bullish outlook on precious metals due to ongoing geopolitical events and expectations of monetary easing, suggesting investors should hold positions despite market volatility [3] - For copper, the report recommends buying on dips, citing expected supply-demand tightness in 2026 due to production cuts from major producers and increased fiscal spending expectations from the U.S. government [4] - The aluminum market is also recommended for buying on dips, with strong macro policy expectations and geopolitical risks providing support despite current demand pressures [4] - Tin prices have surged past 350,000 yuan/ton, driven by significant inventory reductions and ongoing demand from AI capital expenditures, with a recommendation to buy on dips [5] - Lithium prices continue to rise, with a recommendation to buy on dips, supported by supply constraints and strong demand expectations [5] Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw an 8.3% increase this week, ranking fifth among sectors [13] Prices - LME copper decreased by 0.93%, aluminum increased by 1.91%, zinc decreased by 1.84%, lead increased by 0.84%, and tin increased by 7.38% [18] - Precious metals saw COMEX gold rise by 1.32%, silver by 4.29%, and NYMEX palladium by 5.73%, while platinum fell by 18.09% [18] - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 17.15% [18] Inventory - Global visible copper inventories increased by 31,985 tons, while aluminum saw a decrease of 809 tons, zinc decreased by 900 tons, lead decreased by 11,300 tons, and tin decreased by 916 tons [24][26]

Core Insights - In 2025, gold experienced a remarkable increase of 64%, marking the largest annual gain in 46 years, with multiple historical highs reached throughout the year [3][4] - The surge in gold prices is part of a broader trend where precious metals, including silver and platinum, also saw significant increases, with silver futures rising approximately 132% [3] - The rise in gold prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a decline in the US dollar index by 5.2%, and a global trend towards "de-dollarization" as countries seek more reliable assets [7][8] Market Dynamics - Central banks globally have been accumulating gold, with purchases reaching about 980 tons in 2025, accounting for 26.8% of annual production, tightening supply-demand dynamics [12] - The Federal Reserve's initiation of a rate-cutting cycle in 2025 has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, leading to increased investment in the asset as other options become less attractive [12] - Gold is transitioning from an optional asset to a necessary component for balancing risk in investment portfolios, reflecting a shift in market perception [12] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to approach gold investments cautiously, as the significant price increase in 2025 may have already priced in expectations related to a weak dollar, rate cuts, and de-dollarization [15] - A recommended strategy for ordinary investors is to use dollar-cost averaging when purchasing gold ETFs to mitigate price volatility, rather than making large, one-time investments [17] - It is suggested that gold should constitute 5%-15% of household liquid assets, serving as a stabilizing element against risks in equity and bond markets [17]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver continue to soar, reaching new historical highs, driven by multiple factors including geopolitical risks, U.S. fiscal concerns, and ongoing monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1][4][5]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 12, the main silver contract in Shanghai opened significantly higher at 20,881 yuan per kilogram, with a peak of 20,950 yuan, marking a 14.07% increase [1]. - COMEX silver rose over 6%, reaching 84.52 USD per ounce, while London spot silver hit a high of 84.589 USD per ounce, with a gain exceeding 5% [1]. - COMEX gold reached 4,612.7 USD per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract saw a 3.07% increase, both setting new historical highs [1]. Group 2: Investment Trends - Following the surge in gold prices, there has been a notable increase in investment enthusiasm for related assets, with over 5.5 billion shares of gold ETFs net subscribed in 2025, and an additional 400 million shares in the first seven trading days of 2026 [1][8]. - The largest gold ETF in China, Huaan Gold ETF, grew from under 30 billion yuan at the beginning of 2025 to over 90 billion yuan [7]. - The People's Bank of China reported that its gold reserves reached 74.15 million ounces by December 2025, marking 14 consecutive months of increases [8]. Group 3: Factors Driving Gold and Silver Prices - Geopolitical risks are high, enhancing market risk aversion and supporting precious metal prices [4]. - U.S. fiscal risks are rising due to the economic and fiscal policies of the Trump administration, leading to increased skepticism about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal health [4][5]. - Global central banks continue to show strong interest in gold as a strategic reserve asset amid economic uncertainties [4]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that the long-term upward trend for gold will persist, driven by a shift towards "de-dollarization" and "debt reduction" policies in major economies [5][10]. - UBS Wealth Management has raised its price targets for gold, forecasting a rise to 5,000 USD per ounce by mid-2026, with potential peaks of 5,400 USD if political or financial risks escalate [8]. - Investment strategies are shifting from short-term economic indicators to long-term structural risk hedging, indicating a fundamental change in commodity investment logic [10].

Core Viewpoint - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reported that China's foreign exchange reserves reached $3.238 trillion as of June 2025, with potential to approach $3.35 trillion if the current stabilization trend continues, marking a high point since the "foreign reserve scare" of 2015 [1][2] Group 1: Historical Context - In 2015, China faced a "foreign reserve scare" due to a stock market crash and currency reform, leading to a significant drop in foreign reserves from nearly $3.9 trillion at the beginning of the year to a decrease of $512.6 billion for the entire year, with a record monthly decline of $107.9 billion in December [2][5] Group 2: Current Stability Factors - The current stability of foreign reserves is supported by three main factors: 1. A solid foreign trade foundation, with a projected merchandise trade surplus of $513 billion in 2024 and a 12% reduction in service trade deficit compared to previous years, contributing to foreign exchange inflows [7] 2. A balanced capital flow, with foreign investments in Chinese bonds and stocks, while domestic entities also invest abroad, avoiding a "capital flight" scenario [9] 3. Potential for valuation recovery, as a weaker US dollar and declining US Treasury yields could enhance the value of non-dollar assets in the reserves, such as euros and yen [10] Group 3: Strategic Importance of Foreign Reserves - Foreign reserves serve as a critical buffer during crises, exemplified by the 1997 Hong Kong financial defense, where the central government provided unlimited foreign exchange support to stabilize the currency [11] - The diversification of foreign reserves is being emphasized, with an increased focus on gold, which has risen to 7.8% of total reserves, and a shift in currency composition to reduce reliance on the US dollar [14][17] Group 4: Implications for the Economy - A stable foreign reserve position helps maintain a stable RMB exchange rate, which benefits cross-border tourism, education, and import costs, while ensuring the import of essential goods like food, oil, and chips [19] - Sufficient foreign reserves provide the necessary support to stabilize the industrial and supply chains, contributing to a more stable job market amid global economic pressures [19]

受地缘政治高度不确定影响，美国纽约商品交易所黄金期货价格1月11日创历史新高，一度突破每盎司4612美元。12日早盘，现货黄金强势拉涨，盘中首 次突破4600美元，再创新高。截至发稿有所回落，报4581.547美元/盎司。 受国际金价带动，国内黄金饰品价格也普遍上涨，多个品牌足金报价突破1400元/克。其中，周生生、老庙报价1429元/克，周大福、周大生报价1426元/ 克，六福珠宝报价1424元/克，较昨日普遍上涨了20元/克。 | 实物黄金 单位元/克 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 間大福 | 周六福 | 周生生 # 1 ] # # | | 1426.00 | 1411.00 | 1429.00 | | 金条价格 1251.00 | 金条价格 1306.00 | 金条价格 1254.00 | | 間大生 | 潮宏基 | 六福珠宝 | | 1426.00 | 1426.00 | 1424.00 | | 铝金价格 933.00 | 铂金价格 933.00 | 金条价格 1249.00 | | 老凤花 | 我問題我 | 中国营等 | | 1428.00 | 1429.00 | 1023 ...

Core Viewpoint - In 2025, the Singapore dollar (SGD) demonstrated resilience amidst global financial market turbulence, characterized by a strong dollar, geopolitical shifts, and divergent monetary policies. The SGD is expected to continue serving as a "stabilizer" in the global currency market in 2026, despite anticipated economic slowdowns and monetary easing conditions [1]. Exchange Rate Dynamics - The SGD exhibited a "weak to strong" trend against the USD in 2025, reflecting both the dollar's cyclical effects and Singapore's economic resilience. The year can be divided into three phases: 1. In Q1, the SGD faced pressure due to trade concerns and failed Fed rate cut expectations, with the USD/SGD reaching a high of 1.3751 on January 13. The SGD only depreciated by about 2.3%, outperforming other Asian currencies [2]. 2. In Q2, the SGD rebounded sharply as US trade policies were less aggressive than expected and local economic data exceeded forecasts, with the SGD/USD dropping to a low of 1.2698 by July 1, marking a ten-year high [2]. 3. In the second half, particularly Q4, the SGD became a preferred safe haven amid rising geopolitical risks, ending the year with a cumulative appreciation of approximately 6.14% against the USD [3]. Economic Performance - Singapore's economy outperformed initial pessimistic forecasts in 2025, achieving a GDP growth of 4.8%, significantly above the predicted range of 1% to 3% and higher than the 4.4% growth in 2024. The fourth quarter saw a robust growth rate of 5.7% [4]. - Inflation concerns were effectively managed, with core inflation rates dropping to a range of 0.5% to 1%, aided by declining import costs and government subsidies in healthcare and transportation [4]. Monetary Policy Adjustments - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) implemented its first policy shift in five years in 2025, slightly lowering the slope of the nominal effective exchange rate policy in January and April, signaling a transition from "anti-inflation" to "growth preservation" [5]. - MAS's communication strategy was successful, maintaining market confidence in the SGD as a "hard currency" while allowing for flexibility in monetary policy adjustments based on economic data [5]. Outlook for 2026 - The SGD is expected to experience a "stable yet rising" trend with reduced volatility in 2026, influenced by complex variables beyond just Fed interest rate changes. The anticipated depreciation of the USD due to continued Fed rate cuts could enhance the SGD's attractiveness [6]. - Geopolitical factors and Singapore's strong fiscal position will continue to attract safe-haven investments, with the government’s robust budget and substantial reserves providing a buffer against external shocks [7]. - The Ministry of Trade and Industry forecasts a return to normal growth rates for Singapore's GDP in 2026, estimating growth between 1% and 3%, with inflation projected to remain manageable [8]. Recommendations for Businesses and Investors - For import-oriented companies, the SGD's appreciation may lower dollar-denominated procurement costs, suggesting an increase in spot foreign exchange purchases. Export-oriented firms should be cautious of profit erosion due to SGD appreciation and consider using derivatives to hedge against currency fluctuations [9]. - Investors are encouraged to view SGD assets as a defensive holding in the context of global de-dollarization, especially as US Treasury yields decline, enhancing the relative attractiveness of Singaporean assets [9].

据CCTV国际时讯，受地缘政治高度不确定影响，美国纽约商品交易所黄金和白银期货价格1月11日上 涨，2月黄金期货价格一度突破每盎司4600美元，白银期价一度也在每盎司84美元高位附近波动，均创 历史新高。市场分析认为，作为重要避险资产，国际金价上涨受到地缘政治形势影响。观察人士认为， 美国政府强权行径将加速各国"去美元化"，对国际金价形成较强支撑。与此同时，由于白银市场供应持 续紧张，国际银价再度反弹。分析显示，当前白银供应短缺很难在短期内得到缓解。在这种环境下，市 场预期白银价格将继续保持上涨势头。 ...