Group 1 - The core argument presented by the expert Carol is that if Israel attacks Iran's oil facilities, it would significantly harm China, which relies on Iran for 12% of its oil supply, particularly affecting refineries in Shandong that depend on Iranian oil for 95% of their needs [1] - The suggestion overlooks critical factors, such as Iran's potential retaliation by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil transport, affecting 30% of the world's oil supply and impacting countries like Japan and South Korea that rely on this route for 90% and 88% of their oil imports respectively [3] - China has diversified its oil supply sources, with increased imports from Canada and strategic reserves that can last for three months, along with collaborations in renewable energy projects with Saudi Arabia, indicating preparedness for potential disruptions [3][5] Group 2 - Iran's economy heavily relies on oil revenue, which constitutes over 60% of its fiscal income, making it unlikely for Iran to risk severing ties with China, especially given their significant trade agreements [5] - Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, oppose Israel's potential actions against Iran, fearing retaliation that could affect their oil fields, while the U.S. is also concerned about rising oil prices impacting its economy [5][7] - The modern energy landscape indicates that simply cutting off oil supplies does not guarantee victory in geopolitical conflicts, as China's diversified supply chain and strategic reserves create a safety net against potential disruptions [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the positive performance of the Hong Kong stock market, particularly the internet sector, driven by undervalued assets and increased IPOs of quality mainland companies [3][4] - The Hong Kong Internet ETF has seen a significant increase in net value, rising by 47.77% over the past year, ranking in the top 4.95% among index equity funds [4] - The ETF's management fee is competitive at 0.50%, and it has the highest tracking precision among comparable funds, with a tracking error of only 0.050% over the past three months [4] Group 2 - The CSI Hong Kong Internet Index consists of 30 companies related to internet businesses, with the top ten stocks accounting for 77.23% of the index [5] - The top weighted stocks include Alibaba-W, Xiaomi Group-W, and Tencent Holdings, with respective weights of 18.49%, 15.72%, and 14.90% [7] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) of the index is 22.41, indicating it is at a historical low compared to the past three years [4]

黄金市场 招商评论 商品期货早班车 招商期货 2025年06月25日 星期三 风险提示：贸易战反复 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：昨日电解铝 | | | 2508 | | 合约收盘价较前一交易日-0.25%，收于 | | | | 20315 | 元/吨，国内 | 0-3 | 月差 | 390 | 元/吨， | | | LME 美元/吨。 | 价格 | 2576.5 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 铝 | | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅上升。需求方面，铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 交易策略：伦铝强制要求持有近月合约头寸超过可用库存的交易商减仓，限制现货流动性风险，铝锭自 | | | | | | | | | 6 月 | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the issuance of the "Implementation Plan for High-Quality Development of the Gold Industry (2025-2027)" by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments, which aims to enhance resource security and innovation in the gold industry by 2027 [1] - The plan sets a target for gold resource growth of 5% to 10% and an increase in gold and silver production of over 5% [1] - The policy is expected to elevate the strategic position of the gold industry at the national level, potentially leading to more policy support and resource allocation [1] Group 2 - The plan provides a clear development path for enterprises, encouraging capital integration and guiding companies to strengthen and expand [1] - The implementation of this plan offers a policy dividend period for gold companies, which may lead to increased production, improved efficiency, and resource integration, enhancing the attractiveness of gold stock investments [1] - Recent easing of Middle East conflicts has led to a pullback in gold prices, but the long-term trend of weakening dollar and U.S. Treasury credit remains a key focus [2] Group 3 - According to the World Gold Council's survey, 95% of central banks expect to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months, the highest percentage since the survey began in 2019, up 17 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The trend of "de-dollarization" is intensifying, with market participants motivated to increase their allocation to gold assets [2] - Gold stocks are expected to benefit from domestic policy support and the long-term upward trend in gold prices, with potential for significant growth as gold prices rise and mining companies expand production [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rapid development and regulatory attention on stablecoins, particularly in the U.S. and Hong Kong, highlight their growing significance in the cryptocurrency market and the broader financial system [1]. Group 1: Development and Market Size - Stablecoins have experienced explosive growth, with the market size expanding from $5 billion in 2020 to $250 billion currently, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 100% [2]. - The transaction volume of stablecoins is approaching $37 trillion, and it is estimated that the market could reach $4 trillion in ten years, implying a CAGR of over 30% [2]. - Over 95% of stablecoins are currently dollar-pegged, indicating a strong reliance on the U.S. dollar [2]. Group 2: Factors Driving Growth - The rise of distributed ledger technology and the rapid development of digital currencies and virtual economies are key factors driving the growth of stablecoins [2]. - Stablecoins offer high payment efficiency, particularly in cross-border transactions, and can operate without the need for bank accounts, making them attractive in regions with underdeveloped banking systems [2]. - Issuers of stablecoins can retain interest income from reserve assets, contributing to increased profitability in recent years [2]. Group 3: Regulatory Impact - A clearer regulatory framework is expected to enhance the balance between efficiency and safety in stablecoin development, addressing risks related to compliance and redemption [3]. Group 4: Implications for Global Monetary System - The dominance of dollar-pegged stablecoins is expected to continue in the short term, but other currencies like the euro, yen, pound, and even the renminbi may gain traction in the medium to long term [4]. - If stablecoins include assets beyond fiat currencies, such as credit-derivative bonds, they could lead to credit expansion similar to "shadow banking," potentially increasing overall liquidity [4]. - The U.S. GENIUS Act mandates that dollar stablecoin reserves must be held in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities, which could distort yield curves and impact financial conditions [4]. Group 5: Development of Local Stablecoins - The development of a Hong Kong dollar stablecoin requires a robust reserve asset pool, particularly focusing on high-liquidity assets beyond cash [5]. - In the context of global de-dollarization, promoting offshore renminbi stablecoins could be essential for enhancing their usage and supporting cross-border business [5]. - Supporting Chinese enterprises in expanding overseas and increasing the use cases for stablecoins are critical for the success of Hong Kong's stablecoin market and could further the internationalization of the renminbi [5].

智通财经APP获悉，在日交易额高达 7.5 万亿美元的外汇市场中，一项有关需求的指标引起了华尔街的 关注。这一指标表明，即便在市场动荡时期，投资者对美元的兴趣也有所减弱，而通常在这种情况下投 资者会蜂拥买入美元以避险。 包括摩根士丹利和高盛在内的几家银行的分析师均指出，近期所谓的"交叉货币基差互换"出现了变化。 这种互换是衡量将一种货币兑换成另一种货币所需额外成本的指标，该成本超出了现金市场借贷成本所 反映的范畴。当对某种特定货币的需求增加时，这种额外成本或溢价就会上升;而当需求不那么旺盛时， 这种溢价则会下降，甚至可能出现负值。 这些分析师指出，当美国总统特朗普在 4 月宣布"解放日"关税政策导致市场崩溃时，以基差掉期衡量的 对美元的偏好程度相对较低且持续时间较短；与此同时，对欧元和日元等其他货币的需求有所增长。这 与过去二十年中因安全需求而引发的抢购美元热潮形成了鲜明对比，比如疫情爆发时，美元在全球融资 市场中一直占据着溢价地位，这种现象持续了一段时间。 但华尔街的分析师们更关注的是全球资本流动在更长时期内所发生的持久性变化。 法国巴黎银行美国利率策略主管Guneet Dhingra在一次采访中说道："通 ...

2025 年上半年，全球经济航船在贸易摩擦加剧与政策不确定性升腾的漩涡中艰难前行。 世界银行最新数据显示，全球近七成经济体遭遇增长预期下调，整体经济增速已滑落至 2.3% ，创下 2008 年金融危机以来的最低纪录。 相比之下，中国经济在政策有力护航下展现出相对韧性，全年增长预期锚定 5% ，然而内需修 复的持续性、地产风险的化解进程以及全球产业链重构带来的压力，仍构成复杂挑战。 主要经济体增长普遍乏力：美国受制于高利率与关税冲击，增速放缓至 1.4% ；欧元区与日本 表现更为疲弱，双双仅录得 0.7% 的微弱增长；新兴市场的增长势头亦显著减弱。 阴霾之中，新质生产力正孕育着变革的曙光。 人工智能（ AI ）应用迎来大规模落地的元年，深刻重塑产业图景；绿色能源转型加速推进； 中国新能源汽车出口更是异军突起，同比激增 70% 。 与此同时，在全球 " 去美元化 " 浪潮涌动之下，中国资产的价值重估机遇悄然显现。 值此百年未有之大变局下，面对机遇与风险并存的复杂棋局，投资者该如何调整舵轮，优化策 略，才能行稳致远呢？ 2025 年 7 月 4 日 -5 日，格隆汇·中期策略峰会· 2 025 将再度于深圳启幕。 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 海外与大类周报 证券研究报告 中东地缘冲突如何定价？ 伊以冲突触发中东权力格局重构，全球资产反应呈现历史性钝化 以色列 2025 年 6 月 13 日对伊朗核设施实施"斩首式打击"，引发伊朗直接军 事报复。尽管事件导致原油日内涨幅 7.02%（布伦特收盘 74.23 美元/桶）、黄 金冲高 3%（6 月 13 日 COMEX 黄金 3431.2 美元/盎司），但全球权益市场波 动率及美元指数（单日仅涨 0.27%）均未有大幅波动。相较于 1990 年海湾战 争期间原油波动极差 61.5%、标普 500 回撤 20%，本次资产波动强度显著减弱， 反映金融体系对区域性冲突的适应性进化——定价锚点转向供需基本面（原 油）与实际利率（黄金），边际影响系统性衰减。 原油：地缘溢价衰减与供需新平衡 地缘冲击对油价的边际驱动持续弱化，供给侧调控与季节性需求的博弈成为 新主导。尽管霍尔木兹海峡中断风险推升布伦特原油盘中涨幅超 10%，但价 格较俄乌冲突峰值（127.98 美元/桶）低 42%，印证地缘溢价衰减。历史趋势 明确：1990 年海湾战争波动极差 61.5 个百分点，2023 年巴以冲突收窄至 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold's medium - to long - term bullish logic remains intact. The global trend of de - dollarization drives continuous central bank gold - buying demand. The US twin deficits and economic downward pressure may prompt the Fed to turn to a loose monetary policy. If the tariff policy persists and increases inflation resilience, gold's anti - inflation appeal will strengthen. If the expectation of interest rate cuts becomes clearer, silver's industrial attributes and relative valuation advantages may boost the silver price, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline further. The report suggests paying attention to the range of 767 - 780 yuan/gram for the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract and 8630 - 8800 yuan/kilogram for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 771.86 yuan/gram, down 9.44 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 8739 yuan/kilogram, down 31 yuan. The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold are 147343 lots, down 5119 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 341851 lots, down 6481 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract are 139204 lots, down 2488 lots; those of Shanghai Silver are 113611 lots, up 5838 lots. The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 0 kilograms, down 18168 kilograms; that of silver is 0 kilograms, down 1247103 kilograms [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 776 yuan/gram, down 3.8 yuan; the silver spot price is 8708 yuan/kilogram, up 1 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 4.14 yuan/gram, up 5.64 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 31 yuan/kilogram, up 32 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 957.4 tons, up 7.16 tons; silver ETF holdings are 14950.99 tons, up 200.71 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC are 200648 contracts, up 13167 contracts; those of silver are 67174 contracts, up 524 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 15.76%, down 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 24.67%, down 0.12%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 24.01%, down 2.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 24%, down 2.24% [2] 3.5 Industry News - Iran announced a missile strike on the US military's Al - Udeid Air Base in Qatar. Trump announced an Iran - Israel cease - fire, but Iran denied it. The Fed's independence is interfered by Trump, and geopolitical risks intensify, putting pressure on Germany and Italy to repatriate over $245 billion in gold reserves. Fed Vice - Chair Bowman may support a rate cut as early as July. Fed's Goolsbee said that if the impact of trade policies disappears, the Fed should continue to cut rates. According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July is 84.5%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 15.5%. The probability of keeping rates unchanged in September is 30%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 60%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 10% [2]

智通财经APP获悉，全球各大央行所管理的数万亿美元储备资产的管理者们正考虑将资金从美元转向黄 金、欧元以及人民币。由于世界贸易的分裂以及地缘政治的动荡促使人们重新审视资金流动方式，这一 趋势正在形成。 据国际货币与金融机构论坛(OMFIF)将于周二晚些时候发布的报告称，管理着总计 5 万亿美元资产的三 分之一的央行计划在未来一到两年内增加对黄金的投资，剔除那些计划减少投资的央行后，这一比例达 到了至少五年来的最高水平。 这项针对 75 家央行的调查(于 3 月至 5 月期间进行)首次揭示了美国总统特朗普 4 月 2 日"解放日"关税 政策所带来的影响，该政策引发了市场动荡，并导致避险货币美元和美国国债价格下跌。 全球央行此前一直在以创纪录的速度增持黄金，而此次调查显示，黄金在未来更长时期内还将进一步受 益，有 40%的央行计划在未来十年内增加黄金持有量。 OMFIF表示："在经历了多年的创纪录央行黄金购买量之后，储备管理者们正在加大对这种贵金属的投 入力度。" OMFIF 称，去年在调查中最受欢迎的美元今年已跌至第七位；70%的受访者表示，美国的政治环境让 他们对投资美元感到犹豫，这一比例是去年的两倍多。在货 ...