Group 1 - The core point is that American consumer power is fundamentally based on "spending tomorrow's money today," which translates to widespread consumer debt [1] - The average savings rate in the U.S. hovers around 4%-5%, while China's savings rate is significantly higher at 43% in 2023 [1] - U.S. consumer credit balances reach $4.8 trillion, averaging about $15,000 per person, compared to China's per capita consumer loans being less than one-tenth of that amount [1] Group 2 - The disparity in income and wealth distribution in the U.S. amplifies consumer data, with a significant portion of consumption driven by a small number of wealthy individuals [2] - The U.S. has a GDP per capita of $77,000, which is six times that of China, but this is misleading due to the large wealth gap [2] - In contrast, China has a substantial number of low-income individuals, with 600 million people earning less than 1,000 yuan per month, limiting their ability to spend beyond basic needs [2] Group 3 - The U.S. consumer power is supported by the dominance of the dollar, allowing Americans to acquire global goods at lower costs [4] - The U.S. economy is consumption-driven, with government and corporate policies aimed at stimulating spending, even if it leads to debt [6] - In contrast, China's economy focuses on investment and exports, resulting in slower growth in consumer income relative to economic development [6] Group 4 - The facade of American consumer power is beginning to unravel as rising interest rates increase debt pressure, leading to higher credit card default rates and reduced consumer spending [8] - The wealth gap is widening, and the actual purchasing power of ordinary Americans is declining, resulting in quieter shopping malls and restaurants [8] - The U.S. dollar's dominance is being challenged as countries pursue "de-dollarization," which threatens the sustainability of American consumer power [8] Group 5 - The difference in consumer power between the U.S. and China is fundamentally rooted in their development models and consumption philosophies [10] - China's consumer power is seen as stable and sustainable, supported by real income without excessive debt risks [10] - The U.S. consumer power is characterized as artificial and unsustainable, reliant on future debt and skewed distribution, which could collapse if its support systems fail [10]

国泰君安期货研究所· 海 外 研 究 联系人 杨藤 F03151619 国泰君安期货·君研海外 海外宏观及大类资产周度报告 戴璐 Z0021475 刘雨萱 Z0020476 日期：2026年2月8日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures CONTENTS 01 02 03 大类资产周度表现及市场高频数据 • 固定收益 – 海外固收周度表现 • 固定收益 – 美债收益率曲线和信用利差 • 固定收益 – 不同评级信用债相对强弱及欧元区利差 • 固定收益 – 美国国债发行量及一二级市场供需 • 汇率市场 – 主要汇率周度表现 • 汇率市场 – 主要国家国债收益率与美债利差走势 • 汇率市场 – 中国货币政策框架演进 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率月频指标 • 汇率市场 – 人民币汇率高频指标 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品周度表现 • 大宗商品 – 主要大宗商品比价及产业链相对强弱 • 海外权益 – 全球主要指数及美股各行业周度表现 • 海外权益 – ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold is expected to stabilize in a volatile manner, while silver requires attention to spot market changes. The strength analysis indicates a neutral stance for both gold and silver. The price ranges are 1050 - 1150 yuan/gram for gold and 18000 - 25000 yuan/kilogram for silver [3][5]. - The long - term logic for gold remains solid, but there is a lack of short - term drivers around the Chinese New Year, resulting in a wedge - shaped oscillatory convergence pattern in prices. The adjustment of gold is considered relatively sufficient, and the possibility of further decline is low [4]. - For silver, the feedback from the fundamentals after the price drop this week is the core for subsequent price judgment. The contradiction of the tight spot structure is expected to continue until the second quarter. There is still potential for an increase in silver prices, but it depends on factors such as continued retail speculation, pre - April export rush, and no further inventory reduction in the US. There is a trend - based decline opportunity for silver if a second peak appears in the second quarter [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Capital, and Position) 3.1.1 Overseas Spot - Futures Price Spread - Gold: This week, the spread between London spot gold and COMEX gold主力 rebounded to - 21.99 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX gold continuous and COMEX gold主力 was - 30.1 US dollars/ounce [11]. - Silver: This week, the spread between London spot silver and COMEX silver主力 rebounded to 0.225 US dollars/ounce, and the spread between COMEX silver continuous and COMEX silver主力 was - 0.76 US dollars/ounce [17]. 3.1.2 Domestic Spot - Futures Price Spread - Gold: This week, the domestic gold spot - futures price spread was 1.37 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [20]. - Silver: This week, the domestic silver spot - futures price spread was - 602 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [22]. 3.1.3 Inter - month Spread - Gold: This week, the gold inter - month spread was 6.92 yuan/gram, at the upper end of the historical range [26]. - Silver: This week, the silver inter - month spread was 476 yuan/gram, at the lower end of the historical range [29]. 3.1.4 Cross - month Positive Arbitrage Delivery Cost - Gold: The total cost of cross - month positive arbitrage delivery for buying TD and selling Shanghai gold was 26.74 yuan/gram; for buying Shanghai gold December contract and selling June contract, it was 7.38 yuan/gram [31][32]. - Silver: The total cost of cross - month positive arbitrage delivery for buying TD and selling Shanghai silver was 343.18 yuan/kilogram; for buying Shanghai silver December contract and selling June contract, it was 418.60 yuan/kilogram [33][34]. 3.1.5 Delivery Direction of Deferred Fees for Gold and Silver Spot at Shanghai Gold Exchange This week, for gold at the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the deferred fee was mainly paid from long to short, indicating stronger delivery power; for silver, it was mainly paid from short to long, indicating stronger receiving power [35]. 3.1.6 Inventory and Position - to - Inventory Ratio - Gold: This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 11 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants rebounded to 51.9%. The domestic gold futures inventory increased by 1.02 tons [37][42]. - Silver: This week, the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 353 tons to 12270 tons, and the proportion of registered warrants declined to 26%. The domestic silver futures inventory decreased by 105 tons to 350 tons [39][42]. 3.1.7 CFTC Non - commercial Positions This week, the non - commercial net long position of COMEX CFTC gold decreased slightly, and the non - commercial net long position of silver also decreased slightly [44]. 3.1.8 ETF Positions - Gold: This week, the inventory of the gold SPDR ETF decreased by 10.87 tons, and the domestic gold ETF decreased by 2.4 tons [47]. - Silver: This week, the position of the silver SLV ETF increased by 667 tons [51]. 3.1.9 Gold - Silver Ratio This week, the gold - silver ratio rebounded from 47 in the previous week to 66.27 [53]. 3.1.10 COMEX Gold Delivery Volume and Gold - Silver Lease Rates This week, the 3 - month gold lease rate was - 0.05%, and the 3 - month silver lease rate was 5.74% [55]. 3.2 Core Drivers of Gold 3.2.1 Gold and Real Interest Rates This week, the correlation between gold and real interest rates recovered, and the 10Y TIPS continued to decline [60].

【导读】中外资机构：期待中国股市"盈利牛"，短期波动不会改变黄金、白银避险属性 【编者按】 中国基金报每月会邀请中外资金融机构的代表，分享他们对全球经济及重大事件的分析与评判。 进入2026年，地缘政治风云突变，各类资产坐上史诗级"过山车"，全球尤其是中国的经济及金融市场将 如何发展？中国基金报记者采访了以下机构专业人士。 贝莱德大中华区投资策略师 陆文杰 汇丰环球私人银行及财富管理中国首席投资总监 匡正 南方东英CIO 王毅 惠理集团投资组合总监 盛今 中国银河国际首席宏观策略师 成亚曼 全国两会重点关注 政策取向如何匹配中长期目标 中国基金报：全国两会即将举行，你会关注哪些热点？ 陆文杰：中国政策连续性强，方向明确，不会因两会而发生根本性转向。 在基础性周期性政策上，如财政赤字、发债额度等占GDP的比重，预计与去年大致相当，不会有太大意 外。 我们真正关注的是政策取向如何与"十五五"规划等中长期目标配合。例如，"投资于人"的具体含义是什 么？财政支出是更侧重民生保障，还是通过给中小企业减税来促进就业和收入？这些具体的结构性安排 是最值得关注的。 成亚曼：2026年作为"十五五"开局之年，政策或趋于务实，淡 ...

如果要恢复到峰值产量350万桶每天，委内瑞拉需要投入上千亿美元。然而，当前油价低迷，谁会愿意做亏本生意呢？相比之下，墨西哥湾的轻质油更便 宜，而委内瑞拉的石油运输成本每桶高出1美元，加工成本也高出22%。根据雪佛龙的数据，1月的委内瑞拉油处理量为每天15万桶，但到厂的却是22万桶， 实际销售的不到10万桶。油轮在港口等了好几天，甚至有的油轮选择慢速航行。维多和托克集团从委内瑞拉运出的1200万桶原油也滞留在加勒比海的仓库 里，卖不动。特朗普原本希望通过这些石油来降低美国的能源价格，但最终却面临着市场饱和、库存堆积、成本无法回收的窘境。 到2025年，每天的石油过剩量达到140万桶，布伦特原油的价格从年初的75.93美元跌至年末的60.64美元，跌幅达到20%。西得克萨斯中质油的价格也下跌了 18.64%。到了2026年，年初的布伦特油价从1月9日的59.96美元继续跌至1月20日的55.99美元，仍然在持续走低。美国的石油大亨们焦虑不安，心急如焚， 如何将自家产的油卖出去成为他们的难题，而委内瑞拉的石油更是雪上加霜。委内瑞拉的石油属于重质原油，这种油的密度大、黏度高、硫含量多，开采和 加工成本极高，尤其需要添 ...

沙特、俄罗斯、伊拉克、阿联酋等石油大国，随便哪家再多开几口油井、调几艘油轮，就能够轻松弥补这个缺口。伊朗对中国的石油出口确实占其总出口量 的70%到85%左右，但即便如此，对于中国的整体原油进口来说，伊朗的油只占其中的10%到15%。中国每天进口的原油约1100万桶，进口来源早已实现了 多元化，俄罗斯的管道油供应稳定，其他中东国家通过海运补充，非洲和南美也在提供稳定的供应链。尽管伊朗的原油价格相对便宜，约低4到6美元每桶， 但即便伊朗的供应中断，中国也能迅速转向其他途径，虽然成本可能会略微上升，但远不足以影响经济的稳定。西方媒体常常大肆渲染"中国严重依赖伊朗 低价油"的言论，这种说法听起来确实让人担忧，但实则站不住脚。全球石油市场的弹性远比人们想象的要强大。即便在历史上伊朗遭遇最严厉的制裁时 期，虽然油价有所波动，却从未见过全球供应系统崩溃的局面。如果伊朗真有重大动荡，短期内油价可能会迅速上涨，但市场自我调节的能力往往比想象的 更快。 伊朗石油在全球的地位究竟有多重要？西方媒体近些年来对伊朗石油的出口量进行过无数次放大解读，但当我们把事实数据摊开来看，真相却并不像他们描 述的那样引人关注。根据2024到202 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of global currency, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar's dominance and the strategic positioning of the Chinese yuan in the international market [1][3][5]. Group 1: Dollar's Decline - The US dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves has decreased from 71% to 59% over the past 20 years, indicating a loosening of its absolute dominance [5] - Countries are diversifying their reserves and reducing reliance on the dollar, reflecting a trend towards a more multipolar currency system [5][15] - The article emphasizes that while the dollar remains strong, its supremacy is being challenged by countries like China and Russia, which are seeking alternatives to dollar-based transactions [3][5] Group 2: China's Strategy - China is not aggressively pursuing the status of the world's leading currency but is instead focusing on a strategic approach to internationalize the yuan [7][15] - The Chinese Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) connects with 189 countries and regions, facilitating trade without relying on Western financial systems [9][7] - The goal is to ensure that the yuan can be used for essential commodities like energy and food during critical times, rather than aiming for immediate dominance over the dollar [9][11] Group 3: Economic Foundations - The yuan is backed by China's extensive industrial capabilities and supply chain networks, providing it with a tangible basis compared to the dollar, which is increasingly seen as backed by US debt [11][13] - The article argues that the true strength of a currency lies in its ability to secure real goods during crises, rather than its perceived value in financial markets [11][13] - China's approach aims to avoid the pitfalls of dollar hegemony, such as economic disparity and industrial hollowing, by promoting a healthier global financial system [13][15] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future may see a coexistence of multiple currencies rather than a return to a single dominant currency, as countries continue to diversify their payment methods and reserve holdings [15][17] - The article suggests that the focus should be on strengthening domestic industries, technology, and financial infrastructure to prepare for global economic shifts [17]

Group 1 - As of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves have remained stable above $3.3 trillion for six consecutive months, reaching $33,991 billion, an increase of $412 billion or 1.23% from December 2025 [1] - The increase in foreign exchange reserves is attributed to the depreciation of the US dollar and the overall rise in global financial asset prices, influenced by fiscal and monetary policies of major economies [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for the 15th consecutive month, with gold reserves reported at 74.19 million ounces [2] Group 2 - The global central bank gold purchases in 2025 totaled 863 tons, which is lower than the previous three years but still at historically high levels, with 95% of surveyed central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [2][3] - The increase in gold reserves by central banks is seen as a strategic move to diversify foreign exchange reserves and reduce reliance on the US dollar, enhancing the stability and autonomy of national financial systems [3] - The demand for gold from global central banks is expected to remain high in 2026, indicating that the trend of increasing gold reserves is a long-term strategy not significantly affected by short-term factors [3]

信号一：美联储政策"鹰派变脸" 新任美联储主席沃什的鹰派立场，像一盆冷水浇灭了市场宽松预期。美元指数应声反弹，美债收益率飙升，直接刺破了黄金的短期泡沫。更关键的是，市 场对美联储独立性的担忧开始松动——这可是支撑黄金十年牛市的根基之一。 最近几天，黄金市场像坐了过山车——1月底冲上5600美元/盎司的历史高位后，转眼间又暴跌20%，创下40年来单日最大跌幅。这场波动让不少投资者心 跳加速，但真正需要警惕的是，三大罕见信号已悄然浮现，预示更大的变盘可能就在眼前。 虽然中东局势依旧紧张，但市场发现：黄金的避险属性正在被"去美元化"替代。各国央行购金速度放缓，中国投资者转向黄金ETF和积存金，这种从"囤 实物"到"玩金融"的转变，让金价波动更像股票而非避险资产。 变盘前夜的三大支撑 数据显示，黄金ETF持仓量突破历史极值，白银期货未平仓合约一度占全球产量的30%。这种极端拥挤的交易结构，就像暴雨前的蚂蚁搬家。当沃什提名 消息传来，杠杆资金连夜出逃，单日抛售量抵得上三个月正常交易量。 央行"压舱石"仍在：全球央行年度购金量仍超800吨，波兰等国资深买家未退场 信号三：避险逻辑"裂痕初现" 美元信用"慢性病"未愈：美国 ...

Group 1 - The market for gold has experienced extreme volatility, with prices recently peaking at $5,600 per ounce before a dramatic drop of over 9% in a single day, reflecting divided market sentiment [1][3] - The forces driving gold prices upward remain intact, overshadowed temporarily by profit-taking waves, with central bank gold purchases and the ongoing de-dollarization process supporting long-term value [3][5] - Current market dynamics involve a struggle between speculative fund withdrawals and long-term capital positioning, with domestic gold-themed ETFs seeing a reduction of approximately 42.7 billion yuan, although net redemptions were relatively moderate [3][4] Group 2 - The silver market has shown even more volatility, the most significant since 1980, with its industrial and speculative attributes making it more sensitive to monetary policy and market sentiment changes [4] - Investors are advised to adopt a cautious approach to silver investments, waiting for speculative sentiment to fully release before making decisions based on fundamentals [4] - For asset allocation, it is generally recommended that gold constitutes 5-10% of total household assets, which can be increased to 15% in uncertain market conditions to serve as a hedge against inflation [4] Group 3 - Future gold price movements will depend on multiple factors, with UBS providing scenario-based forecasts of $7,200 per ounce in a bullish scenario and $4,600 per ounce in a bearish scenario, reflecting current market uncertainty [5] - The essence of the gold market is a confidence game, where gold's appeal as a hard currency increases when fiat currency credibility wanes, positioning gold as a strategic asset against currency devaluation risks [5] - The market's volatility presents opportunities for prepared investors, with each pullback potentially serving as a long-term investment window, emphasizing the importance of patience and discipline over chasing short-term price differences [5]