智通财经6月24日电，美联储主席鲍威尔表示，美国目前未处于经济衰退状态。 ...

Group 1 - U.S. President Trump has called for lower oil prices, stating "Everyone, bring down the oil prices, I'm watching" [2][3] - Following Trump's comments, oil prices experienced a sharp decline, with WTI crude dropping over 1% and INE crude falling more than 2% [3] - Energy stocks in the U.S. surged, with Houston Energy rising over 65%, Indonesia Energy increasing nearly 50%, and major U.S. energy companies gaining over 15% [5] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has led to rising international oil prices, with concerns about the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran [5] - Tesla's stock rose by 5% after the launch of its autonomous taxi service, Robotaxi, in Austin, Texas, with around 10 new Model Y vehicles deployed for initial passenger service [7] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index saw mixed performance, with JD Health rising over 10% and Li Auto increasing over 6%, while Luckin Coffee fell over 9% [9] Group 3 - The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for June was reported at 52.0, above the expected 51.2, while the Services PMI was at 53.1, slightly above the forecast of 53.0 [9] - A Wall Street analyst has warned that the S&P 500 index could drop by 25%, predicting a potential recession in the U.S. economy [10][11]

Geopolitical Tensions - Closing the Strait of Hormuz would escalate tensions between Iran and the US along with its allies, potentially leading to military confrontations and conflicts [1] - Surrounding countries may find themselves caught in diplomatic struggles, requiring significant international efforts to mediate disputes [1] Oil Supply Disruption - Approximately one-third of global maritime oil transportation passes through the Strait, and its closure would severely restrict oil supply [1] - A significant reduction in oil supply could lead to a sharp increase in international oil prices, creating an energy crisis for oil-importing nations [1] Economic Impact - Rising oil prices could trigger a domino effect, adversely affecting the real economy by increasing production costs and overall prices, thereby raising living costs for the public [1] - There is a risk of a global economic recession due to disrupted international trade and increased transportation costs for goods reliant on oil shipping [1] Shipping Safety Concerns - The closure would pose risks to shipping safety, as vessels would need to take longer routes, increasing travel time and costs while facing higher security threats [3] - The likelihood of shipping accidents may rise due to factors such as piracy and adverse weather conditions [3] Regional Instability - Countries surrounding the Strait that depend on its trade would suffer economically, potentially leading to social unrest and protests among communities reliant on the Strait for their livelihoods [3] - The cumulative effect of internal instability could result in a broader state of turmoil in the region [3]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a bond专题 report focusing on the Fed's interest - rate cut rules under the Sahm Rule [1][14] - Chief analyst is Yan Ziqi, with research assistant Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: What is the Sahm Rule - In 2019, former Fed economist Claudia Sahm proposed the Sahm Rule, which states that when the three - month moving average of the US unemployment rate rises by 0.5 percentage points or more relative to the lowest point in the previous 12 months, the economy is likely in recession [2] - The Sahm Rule is a recession indicator, not a prediction tool, and it reflects the current state of the economy [3] Group 3: Advantages and Accuracy of the Sahm Rule - The Sahm Rule is more timely than other economic recession measurement methods. Since 1953, its trigger time lags behind the NBER - declared recession start time by an average of 2.3 months, while the NBER's declaration has an average lag of 4 - 8 months [3] - The accuracy of the Sahm Rule is 100% for NBER - declared recessions. Since 1950, all 11 NBER - declared recessions were confirmed by the Sahm Rule, with a maximum lag of 4 months. However, there were two "false alarms" in 1959 and 2003 [3] Group 4: Failure Cases of the Sahm Rule - In November 1959, a 116 - day strike by steelworkers caused a short - term spike in manufacturing unemployment, leading to a false alarm. During the trigger period from November to December 1959, the ISM manufacturing PMI was above 50% [4] - In July 2003, the trigger was due to structural unemployment caused by rapid industrial - structure changes during high - speed economic growth. The GDP growth rate in Q2 2003 was 3.6%, and the ISM service PMI in July 2003 was 59.2% [4] Group 5: 2024 Sahm Signal Trigger Analysis - In April, June, and July 2024, the Sahm signal was triggered, with the three - month moving average of the U3 unemployment rate at 3.9%, 4.1%, and 4.2% respectively, exceeding the previous 12 - month low by 0.5pct, 0.5pct, and 0.6pct [5] - The unemployment rate was still not high. The average unemployment rate during the Sahm - Rule trigger period is 7%, and during the NBER - declared recession is 6%. In Q1 2024, GDP grew by 1.6% quarter - on - quarter, and in April 2024, the ISM manufacturing and service PMIs dropped below the boom - bust line, showing mild recession signs [6] Group 6: Relationship between the Sahm Rule and Fed's Interest - rate Cuts - The Fed's actual interest - rate cuts occurred before the start of recession intervals because economic slowdown was signaled by indicators like PMI before recession. The Fed also continued to cut rates during recessions [7] - In 2003, despite a false alarm of the Sahm signal, the Fed cut rates by 25BP one month before due to high unemployment and an unbalanced economic structure [7] - In 2024, the normal sequence of "rate hike→rate cut→recession" was broken, changing to "rate hike→recession→rate cut". The Fed cut rates 6 months after the first Sahm - signal warning, likely due to concerns about inflation [8] - The Fed's rate cuts in 2024 were likely influenced by the Sahm Rule. In September 2024, the Fed cut rates by 50BP when the CPI was still relatively high. The three rate cuts in 2024 occurred when the Sahm - signal value was between 0.43 - 0.47pct [9] Group 7: Outlook - Currently, the Sahm signal indicates that the US has temporarily exited the recession period. However, other indicators suggest economic slowdown risks, and there may be a possibility of re - entering a recession [10] - Future rate - cut predictions should focus on whether the Sahm - signal value rises above 0.4%. Given the current downward trend of inflation, the Fed may cut rates when the Sahm - signal value is relatively high, even before the 0.5% warning is triggered [11]

尽管宏观情绪有所改善，但Hatzius警告称，美国对伊朗采取军事行动的风险仍是潜在威胁。虽然预测 市场显示爆发即时冲突的概率略有下降，但原油价格较6月初仍上涨约10美元/桶，折射出市场对局势升 级乃至霍尔木兹海峡中断的深层忧虑。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管地缘冲突频发且贸易环境动荡，美元近期的疲软表现仍令市场困惑。对此，高 盛在题为《失声之犬》(The Dog That Didn't Bark)的最新报告中指出，即便短期衰退忧虑缓解，周期性 利好因素仍不足以抵消美国经济面临的结构性阻力。 高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius在6月21日的报告中阐释："我们认为，周期性顺风不足以抵消更长期的逆 风。"他特别指出，美元表现逊色的根源在于两大结构性挑战：一是估值仍处历史高位，二是吸引非对 冲资本流入为占GDP 4%的经常账户赤字融资的难度与日俱增。 该行外汇策略团队预计美元将延续跌势，尤其对欧元和日元等汇率可能进一步走弱。其他重要预判包 括：黄金价格将重启升势，英国短期利率有望下行。 关税趋稳难驱阴霾 虽然预期中的美国关税上调幅度趋于稳定为金融市场带来些许宽慰，但美元依旧萎靡不振。高盛预测 2025年美国实际关税税 ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious approach towards various sectors due to the impact of tariffs on GDP and corporate earnings, particularly in Europe and Japan [1][4][12]. Core Insights - Tariffs have a varied impact on GDP and corporate earnings across different regions, with Europe experiencing a GDP impact of approximately 0.2%-0.4% and Japan facing a potential drag of 0.9% on GDP growth for the fiscal year 2025 [1][4][12]. - Most corporate earnings are affected by tariffs in the range of 5%-15%, with companies having high profit margins able to pass on costs through price increases [1][5][8]. - The consumer sector, particularly sportswear, can absorb tariff costs through price hikes, while large appliances are less affected due to local production [1][8][50]. - The technology sector, including companies like Apple and Amazon, faces significant challenges, with potential profit impacts exceeding double digits for Amazon [1][8][42]. Summary by Sections Economic Impact - The static assessment indicates that tariffs will reduce Japan's GDP growth by 0.9% and EPS growth by 5%-7% in 2025 [3][12]. - The EU's new tariffs could suppress GDP growth by 0.2-0.4 percentage points, with additional uncertainty potentially reducing growth by another 0.2 percentage points [1][10]. Sector-Specific Impacts - In the consumer sector, sports footwear can offset tariff costs with price increases of 8%-10%, while luxury goods may require a 3%-5% price increase to maintain margins [1][8][50]. - The technology sector is particularly vulnerable, with Apple facing an 8%-10% negative impact and Amazon potentially experiencing double-digit profit declines [1][8][42]. - The chemical industry shows resilience due to global operations and high local self-sufficiency, although supply chain vulnerabilities remain a concern [29]. Corporate Strategies - Companies with diversified revenue sources, such as those with significant overseas income, are less affected by U.S. tariffs [5][8]. - Firms in the industrial sector are adapting by adjusting pricing strategies to mitigate the impact of tariffs on profit margins [32][36]. - The report highlights the importance of local production and supply chain management in mitigating tariff impacts, particularly for companies in the electrical equipment sector [35][36]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the European market is currently underweight in terms of investment, with capital inflows remaining low despite the challenges posed by tariffs [11]. - The agricultural sector is facing increased tariffs from China, but the overall impact on U.S. agricultural exports has been limited due to reduced reliance on U.S. soybeans [27][28]. Future Outlook - The report emphasizes the need for companies to remain agile in response to ongoing tariff negotiations and potential retaliatory measures from other countries [6][7]. - Companies in the semiconductor and hardware sectors are advised to closely monitor tariff developments, as they could significantly impact production costs and pricing strategies [42][45].

Economic Indicators - The Conference Board reported that the Leading Economic Index (LEI) in the U.S. has declined for six consecutive months, with a 0.1% decrease in May, reaching 99.0 points, following a downward revision of a 1.4% drop in April [1][3] - The decline in LEI is attributed to multiple negative factors, including low consumer confidence, weak new orders, an increase in initial jobless claims, and a reduction in building permits [3][5] Market Reactions - Despite a temporary rebound in the stock market due to tariff rollbacks by Trump, the underlying weakness in the real economy remains evident, indicating that the stock market's performance is misleading [3][5] - The U.S. stock market showed mixed results, with the Dow Jones slightly up while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both fell, reflecting investor uncertainty about future economic conditions [7] Economic Outlook - The Conference Board predicts a significant slowdown in U.S. GDP growth to 1.6% by 2025, warning that ongoing tariff policies could exert further downward pressure by 2026 [3][5] - The current economic indicators suggest a systemic weakening of economic momentum rather than a short-term adjustment, with manufacturing orders declining and labor market loosening indicating a cautious outlook from businesses [5] Global Implications - The deterioration of U.S. economic indicators may signal the onset of a new wave of global turmoil, affecting emerging markets through capital outflows, currency pressures, and financial market volatility [8] - The interconnectedness of global supply chains means that demand weakness and rising financing costs will also impact manufacturing across the Eurasian continent [8]

Group 1 - The Leading Economic Index (LEI) in the U.S. decreased by 0.1% in May 2025, reaching 99.0 points, continuing a significant decline from April's 1.4% drop [1] - Over the six months leading up to May, the LEI fell by a cumulative 2.7%, indicating a stronger downward trend compared to the previous period's 1.4% decline, suggesting a weakening economic growth momentum in the U.S. [1] - The decline in LEI has triggered a recession warning signal, despite the U.S. Conference Board not expecting a technical recession in 2025, but rather a slowdown in economic growth [2] Group 2 - The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) rose by 0.1% in May to 115.1 points, continuing a 0.2% increase from April, with a cumulative growth of 1.3% from November 2024 to May 2025 [2] - The CEI is composed of non-farm employment, personal income excluding government transfers, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial output, with industrial output being the only component that declined in May [2] - The Lagging Economic Index (LAG) increased by 0.4% in May to 119.6 points, continuing its upward trend after a 0.3% rise in April, indicating some improvement in certain lagging economic variables [2]

Group 1 - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers expects President Donald Trump to nominate a mainstream candidate to replace Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, despite Trump's criticism of Powell for not lowering interest rates this year [1] - Summers expresses confidence that Trump will make a respected choice for the next Fed chair, influenced by the desire to avoid market instability and some voices among Senate Republicans [1] - Trump has reiterated calls for the Fed to lower interest rates by at least 2 percentage points, suggesting that his criticism may be more about deflecting blame for a potential economic recession rather than directly influencing Fed policy [2] Group 2 - Summers highlights the negative impact of supply shocks on the economy, as indicated by the Fed's latest economic forecasts, despite lower energy costs and potential productivity gains from AI [2] - The Fed's simultaneous upward revisions of inflation and unemployment rate forecasts are unusual, suggesting an impending supply shock due to tariffs, which complicates the Fed's efforts [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to easily abandon its fight against inflation, facing a dilemma of either economic recession or stagflation [1] - ADP employment data indicates a poor job market, suggesting that the Fed may have to lower interest rates if inflation continues to cool [1] - The market predicts that the dollar may experience four interest rate cuts this year, with the probability of a cut in June approaching zero [1] Group 2 - A-shares experienced a significant drop, largely influenced by the decline in Hong Kong stocks, with both the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices showing a typical bearish trend [3] - The Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both fell over 2%, highlighting the strong correlation between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [3] Group 3 - The market opened lower and continued to decline throughout the day, breaking below the 30-day moving average, indicating a downward trend after a period of consolidation [5] - The next key support levels to watch for potential buying opportunities are between 3316 and 3324 points [5] Group 4 - The ChiNext and Shenzhen Composite indices fell over 1%, with more than 4600 stocks declining across the two markets [7] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets increased to 1.25 trillion, indicating heightened selling pressure and a preference for risk aversion among investors [7] - Despite the short-term bearish trend, the mid-term weekly and monthly structures remain stable, suggesting a potential new cycle may emerge after the current divergence [7]