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棉花期货8月报告:快速修正有望企稳,棉价仍存利多支撑-20250804
Guo Du Qi Huo· 2025-08-04 04:01
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, Zhengzhou cotton prices first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 closed at 13,650 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 0.66%. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 19,770 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 1.10%. The main contract of US cotton closed at 67.22 cents/pound, down 0.82 cents/pound for the month, a decrease of 1.21% [4]. - The low - inventory logic of the 09 contract has ended, and the 01 contract faces the pressure of new cotton listing. After a rapid price correction, there is a short - term need for stabilization and adjustment. In terms of supply, the weather in Xinjiang this year is favorable for a bumper harvest, but recent high - temperature weather may have an adverse impact on the quality of new cotton. In terms of demand, the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations has put pressure on US cotton prices, and the short - term import pressure is not large. The supply - demand tightness still exists. Coupled with the expansion of ginning factory capacity, there may be an expectation of抢购 if the price remains rigid. Therefore, cotton prices may be more likely to rise than fall from August to September. Overall, long positions can be opportunistically established near 13,200 - 13,600 for the 01 contract [4][22]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In July, Zhengzhou cotton prices first rose and then fell. As of July 31, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2509 closed at 13,650 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 0.66%. The main contract of cotton yarn closed at 19,770 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan/ton for the month, a decrease of 1.10%. The main contract of US cotton closed at 67.22 cents/pound, down 0.82 cents/pound for the month, a decrease of 1.21% [4][8]. 2. Fundamental Analysis (1) Weather impact is limited, and there is an expectation of a bumper cotton harvest - According to a survey in June by the International Cotton Market Monitoring System, the weather in major cotton - producing areas is favorable for cotton budding and boll - setting, with relatively few disasters. It is estimated that the new cotton yield per mu in 2025 will be 158.7 kg, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. The national actual sown area of cotton in 2025 is 45.803 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 6.3% [16]. (2) Downstream consumption is stable, and attention should be paid to Sino - US negotiations - From January to June, the cumulative export value of clothing and clothing accessories in China was 73.466 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. The cumulative export of textile yarns, fabrics and products from January to June was 70.531 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.60%. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of clothing in China was 534.13 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.59%. From January to June, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and textiles in China was 743.59 billion yuan, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.62%. As of August 12, the deadline for the postponement of Sino - US tariffs is approaching. Currently, Sino - US negotiations are centered around further delaying tariffs. It is expected that tariffs will most likely be postponed, but there is still a long way to go before a framework agreement is reached. If there is no progress, market sentiment will be bearish [17]. 3. Future Outlook - The low - inventory logic of the 09 contract has ended, and the 01 contract faces the pressure of new cotton listing. After a rapid price correction, there is a short - term need for stabilization and adjustment. In terms of supply, the weather in Xinjiang this year is favorable for a bumper harvest, but recent high - temperature weather may have an adverse impact on the quality of new cotton. In terms of demand, the lack of progress in Sino - US negotiations has put pressure on US cotton prices, and the short - term import pressure is not large. The supply - demand tightness still exists. Coupled with the expansion of ginning factory capacity, there may be an expectation of抢购 if the price remains rigid. Therefore, cotton prices may be more likely to rise than fall from August to September. Overall, long positions can be opportunistically established near 13,200 - 13,600 for the 01 contract [4][22].
中国稀土8月1日全情报分析报告:「中美经贸会谈聚焦关税及稀土」对股价有积极影响
36氪· 2025-08-01 13:34
以下文章来源于36氪企业舆情报告 ,作者36氪 36氪企业舆情报告 . 舆情大数据,帮你看清市场全貌、看懂涨跌原因。 中国稀土公司日报 当日开盘价42.02;交易量44.63万手 换手率4.21%;缩量幅度0.14% 来源| 36氪企业全情报(ID:EV36kr) 中国稀土8月1日缩量下跌3.12% 41.04 -1.32 -3.12% 昨日收盘价43.26;当日收盘价:41.04 3日涨幅 -9.03% ;5日涨幅 -9.98%; 成交额:18.44亿;总市值:435.53亿 较过去一年的平均收盘价 +0.34% ;较过去一年的日均交易量 -0.99% "中美经贸会谈聚焦关税及稀土"舆情分析 中美经贸会谈在斯德哥尔摩举行,双方同意将已暂停的、涉及24%关税的对等加征措施及中方反制措施延长90天。此前,5月和6月双方达成初步协议,避免 了关税进一步升级和稀土出口中断。贝森特透露,在日内瓦和伦敦会议基础上,双方关于中国稀土出口的协议正在细化。此前在日内瓦和伦敦的中美谈判聚 焦于恢复中国稀土出口。分析人士指出,中国在全球稀土和永磁材料市场的主导地位赋予其重要谈判筹码。 |事件正负面性质分析 截止8月1日,此事件匹 ...
五矿期货农产品早报-20250801
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-08-01 01:42
五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号:F0273729 交易咨询号:Z0002942 邮箱:wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号:F03116327 交易咨询号:Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号:F03114441 交易咨询号:Z0022498 电话:010-60167188 邮箱:sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜研究员 【重要资讯】 周四夜盘美豆收盘下跌,北美天气较好限制上方空间,中美贸易谈判也暂未为美豆出口提供利好,但因 为估值较低预计维持区间震荡趋势,豆粕则因中美谈判未报道大豆有关信息获得支撑,市场预期缺乏美 豆买船巴西报价将维持强势。周四豆粕国内豆粕现货稳定,华东报 2870 元/吨,豆粕成交较好,提货仍 然维持高水平,下游库存天数小幅回落处历年中等水平。据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 223.89 万 杨泽元 白糖、棉花研究员 美豆产区未来两周降雨预计偏正常,覆盖大部分产区,气温凉爽,总体天气有利。巴西方面,升贴水小 幅上涨。总体来看,外盘大豆处于低估值、供大于求状态,暂未出现明确的方向性驱动,但国内大豆进 口成本则处于 ...
特朗普盯上了缅甸稀土
Bei Jing Wan Bao· 2025-07-31 04:24
中国国际问题研究院美国研究所副所长张腾军在接受@北京日报 采访时指出,美国稀土高度依赖中国 出口的格局存在已久,而近期中美贸易关系的不确定性,让这个问题进一步浮出水面,成为美国国内一 种弥漫的焦虑:"特朗普意识到,如果在这个领域不能尽快实现自主化和多元化,就有可能在中美竞争 中受到更多钳制。"(@长安街知事) 转自:京报网_北京日报官方网站 【#特朗普盯上了缅甸稀土#】#美国为何有稀土焦虑#美国新一届政府上台不久就紧盯全球矿产资 源,"稀土"二字更被总统特朗普在诸多场合频繁提及。稀土供应,几乎已经成为特朗普的"执念",他的 最新目标是——缅甸。 ...
五矿期货农产品早报-20250731
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 00:48
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The soybean market is in a state of low valuation and oversupply, with no clear directional driver. The domestic soybean import cost is oscillating slightly upwards due to a single - supply source. The soybean meal market is a mix of long and short factors, and the price is expected to remain range - bound [3][5]. - The EPA policy, long - term B50 policy expectations, and limited palm oil supply in Southeast Asia have raised the annual operating center of the oil market. However, the significant year - on - year recovery of palm oil production in Southeast Asia still poses downward pressure [7]. - The Zhengzhou sugar futures price decreased, and the basis strengthened. With the increase in import supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area in the next season, the price is likely to continue to decline [11][12]. - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall. The ongoing Sino - US trade talks have not produced a specific agreement, and the cotton market is short - term bearish [14][15]. - The egg price is expected to remain stable, with individual regions possibly seeing a slight increase. The near - month contract is oscillating, and the post - festival contracts after 09 are recommended for short - selling after a rebound [18][19]. - The domestic pig price is expected to rise slightly. The market is trading on the policy's intervention in capacity reduction, and the focus should be on the spread opportunities [21][22]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean/Meal - **Market Situation**: The North American weather restricts the upside of US soybeans, and Sino - US trade talks have not provided positive news for US soybean exports. However, due to low valuation, it is expected to oscillate within a range. The domestic soybean meal price increased slightly, with good trading volume and high pick - up levels [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the soybean meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to the crushing margin and supply pressure at the upper end. For arbitrage, focus on widening the spread of the soybean meal - rapeseed meal 09 contract [5]. Oil - **Important Information**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil showed different trends in different periods in June, and the production increased in July. Brazil exported $19 billion worth of soybeans to China from January to June, accounting for 74.6% of its total soybean exports [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: The fundamentals support the oil price center. The palm oil price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term and may rise in the fourth quarter. However, due to factors such as high - level production expectations, the upside is limited [9]. Sugar - **Key Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price dropped significantly, and the spot price remained stable. The sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to increase in the first half of July [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Given the increase in import supply and the expected increase in domestic planting area, the Zhengzhou sugar price is likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - **Important Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price continued to fall, and the basis strengthened. Sino - US economic and trade talks were held, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs and counter - measures was extended for 90 days [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: As the specific agreement has not been finalized and the downstream consumption is weak, the cotton market is short - term bearish [15]. Egg - **Spot Information**: The national egg price remained stable, with stable supply and good market circulation. It is expected to remain stable, with individual regions possibly seeing a slight increase [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The near - month contract oscillates, and the post - festival contracts after 09 are recommended for short - selling after a rebound [19]. Pig - **Spot Information**: The domestic pig price remained stable with slight fluctuations in some areas. The reduction in the slaughter volume at the beginning of the month and the strong price - support sentiment among farmers are expected to drive the price up slightly [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: The market is trading on policy intervention in capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [22].
中美继续推动贸易关系缓和:申万期货早间评论-20250730
Group 1: Trade Relations - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the ongoing efforts by China and the U.S. to ease trade tensions, with recent discussions in Stockholm focusing on economic policies and trade agreements [1] - The consensus reached during the talks includes extending the suspension of U.S. tariffs and China's countermeasures for an additional 90 days [1] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, with significant trading activity noted at 1.83 trillion yuan, while financing balances increased by 19.26 billion yuan [2][8] - The banking sector has shown strong performance since 2025, benefiting from a low-risk interest rate environment, which is expected to attract more long-term capital into the market [2] Group 3: Commodity Insights - Lithium carbonate prices have seen fluctuations due to mining qualification issues in Jiangxi, with weekly production slightly increasing [3][19] - Oil prices rose by 2.49% following Trump's statements regarding potential tariffs on Russia if progress is not made in resolving the Ukraine conflict [3][10] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 10.8% in June, with imports decreasing by 4.2% and exports declining by 0.6% [4] - China's state-owned enterprises reported a slight decline in revenue and profit for the first half of the year, with a debt ratio increase to 65.2% [5]
【招银研究】积极因素继续共振,风险偏好全面回暖——宏观与策略周度前瞻(2025.07.28-08.01)
招商银行研究· 2025-07-28 10:20
Group 1: US Economic Recovery - The US economy is showing signs of recovery with a shift towards a more accommodative fiscal stance, as evidenced by a weekly fiscal deficit of $21.6 billion in week 29, and a projected deficit space exceeding $500 billion for Q3 [2] - Employment data indicates a significant improvement, with initial jobless claims decreasing by 4,000 to 217,000, marking a seasonal low and suggesting a stable unemployment rate [2] - Trade negotiations between the US and Japan, as well as the EU, have made progress, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the US and the EU agreeing to procure $750 billion in US energy [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - The market experienced fluctuations influenced by two main factors: Trump's pressure on Powell for rate cuts and the positive signals from US-Japan trade agreements, leading to a rise in US stocks by 1.06% [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a high volatility pattern, with a focus on short to medium-term US Treasury bonds as interest rates are projected to remain elevated [3] - The dollar's performance will be influenced by rate cut expectations and trade negotiations, with a forecast of low volatility in the short term [3] Group 3: China Economic Indicators - China's exports showed resilience in July, with container throughput averaging 6.54 million TEUs and cargo throughput at 26.236 million tons, reflecting year-on-year growth of 7.0% and 11.6% respectively [7] - Domestic demand is mixed, with strong growth in automobile retail sales, averaging 48,000 units per day in July, while real estate transactions are declining, with new home sales down 20.8% year-on-year [7][8] - Industrial profits in June remained weak, with a year-on-year decline of 4.3%, although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to May [8] Group 4: Policy and Strategy Outlook - The upcoming Central Political Bureau meeting is expected to address internal and external pressures, with a focus on maintaining a 5% growth target and emphasizing policies to boost domestic demand [9] - The market sentiment is improving, driven by supply-side policies and demand-side expectations, with a notable increase in risk appetite reflected in the stock market [10] - The bond market is experiencing a correction, with a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield to 1.74%, while the long-term outlook for bonds remains bullish due to ongoing low interest rates [11]
瑞达期货股指期货全景日报-20250728
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 09:27
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint Although the domestic economic fundamentals remained under pressure in June, the financial data showed that the effects of the loose monetary policy had begun to emerge, which might be reflected in subsequent economic indicators. The market had high expectations for the Politburo meeting and the Sino-US trade negotiations this week, and the stock index might continue to rise in the near term. In the long run, the central Huijin's increase in ETF holdings also had a driving effect on guiding long-term funds into the market, injecting confidence into the market, and the stock index also had the potential to rise. The strategy suggested buying on dips [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: The prices of most futures contracts rose, with the IF, IH, and IC contracts increasing, while the IM main contract (2509) decreased. For example, the IF main contract (2509) rose to 4122.0, up 6.4 [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes, such as the IF - IH current - month contract spread decreasing by 2.0 to 1325.2 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, and IC decreased, while that of IM increased. For instance, the IF top 20 net position decreased to -27,859.00, down 1918.0 [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of major indices rose, including the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000. The Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose to 4135.82, up 8.7 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of most futures contracts changed, with the IF main contract basis decreasing to -13.8, down 2.7 [2]. Market Sentiment - **Trading Volume and Balance**: The A - share trading volume decreased to 17,661.50 billion yuan, down 493.01 billion yuan, while the margin trading balance increased to 19,474.29 billion yuan, up 54.37 billion yuan [2]. - **Other Indicators**: Various indicators such as the proportion of rising stocks, option prices, and implied volatilities showed different trends. The proportion of rising stocks increased to 51.37%, up 4.60% [2]. Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - **Overall A - shares**: The strength of all A - shares increased to 5.80, up 1.10, with improvements in both the technical and capital aspects [2]. Industry News - **Industrial Enterprises**: From January to June, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 3436.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The operating income was 66.78 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [2]. - **A - share Financing**: As of July 27, 74 A - share companies had completed private placements this year, raising a total of 659 billion yuan, a significant increase compared to the same period last year [2]. - **Stock Index Performance**: The major A - share indices generally rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.96%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets declined slightly [2]. Key Events to Watch - **International Economic Data**: Important economic data and central bank decisions in the US and Canada are scheduled to be released from July 29 to August 1, such as the US June JOLTs job openings on July 29 at 22:00 [3].
油脂周报:政策及基本面交织油脂延续震荡-20250728
Zhe Shang Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 03:01
Report Title - Policy and fundamentals are intertwined, and the oscillation of oils and fats continues [1][2][8] Core Views - Palm oil is in a stage of oscillating upward, and the price center is expected to rise in the later period. The p2509 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. [3] - Soybean oil is prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The y2509 contract has resistance at the price of 18,400. [3] - Rapeseed oil is also prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The 01509 contract has resistance at the price of 9,800. [3] Week - on - Week Data Changes DCE Palm Oil - 01 contract: The closing price this week was 8,104.0, down 14 from last week, a decline of 0.17%. The 1 - 5 spread was 366.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 4.69%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 7,738.0, up 4 from last week, an increase of 0.05%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 406.0, up 20 from last week, a change of - 4.69%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,144.0, down 16 from last week, a decline of 0.20%. The 9 - 1 spread was 40.0, down 2 from last week, a decline of 4.76%. [9] DCE Soybean Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 8,928.0, down 4 from last week, a decline of 0.04%. The 1 - 5 spread was 270.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 6.25%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 8,658.0, up 14 from last week, an increase of 0.16%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 278.0, up 42 from last week, a change of - 13.12%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,936.0, down 28 from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The 9 - 1 spread was 8.0, down 24 from last week, a decline of 75.00%. [9] CZCE Rapeseed Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 9,401.0, down 108 from last week, a decline of 1.14%. The 1 - 5 spread was 91.0, down 38 from last week, a change of 11.00%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 9,310.0, down 70 from last week, a decline of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 147.0, up 59 from last week, a change of - 27.50%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 9,457.0, down 129 from last week, a decline of 1.35%. The 9 - 1 spread was 56.0, down 21 from last week, a change of 22.46%. [9] International Market Analysis Southeast Asian Palm Oil - Malaysia: From July 1 - 20, according to ITS, palm oil exports decreased by 3.5%; according to AmSpec, exports decreased by 7.3%. The production in the first and middle of July increased by 6.19% month - on - month. [13] - Indonesia: In May, palm oil and refined product exports reached 2.86 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from the previous month. The production was 4.17 million tons, and the inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2 million tons. [13] - India: From May 30, India halved the basic import tax of crude edible oils. In June and July, palm oil imports increased. [25] US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - CBOT soybeans oscillated weakly this week. The USDA reduced the 2025/26 US soybean production forecast by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels. [31] - As of July 20, the soybean flowering rate was 88%, the pod - setting rate was 28%, and the good - excellent rate was 68%. [36] South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - Brazil: The 2025/26 production is expected to reach 175 million tons. In July, the estimated export volume is 12.11 million tons. [64] - Argentina: The 2024/25 production was estimated at 49.9 million tons. [64] Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. The 2025/26 USDA forecast shows a restorative increase in production, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will slightly rise to 10.64%. [73] - Canada: The 2025 rapeseed planting area is expected to be 21.46 million acres. The 2025/26 production is estimated to be 17.8 million tons. [78] Domestic Oils and Fats Market Review - This week, the three major domestic oils oscillated. The performance of soybean and palm oils was better than that of rapeseed oil. [93] Future Outlook - Palm oil: The tight supply pattern in Southeast Asia has eased. It is expected to enter a relatively slow inventory - building cycle. The p2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [94] - Soybean oil: South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken in the third quarter. The y2509 contract is supported by CBOT soybeans. [95] - Rapeseed oil: The global rapeseed supply is tightening marginally. The 01509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [95] Supply and Demand - As of July 18, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.3602 million tons, an increase of 62,200 tons from last week, a rise of 2.71%. [125]
大越期货棉花早报-20250728
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-07-28 01:49
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年7月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询证号: Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 利多:前期中美互加关税减少,未来90天迎来外贸出口 抢单期。商业库存同比降低。 利空:接近贸易缓和3月期限。消费淡季。总体外贸订 单下降,库存增加。 • 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建 议。我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花: 1、基本面:ICAC7月报:25/26年度产量2590万吨,消费2560万吨。USDA7月报:25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨,消费2571.8万吨,期末库存1683.5万 ...