1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the export demand of US soybeans under the background of China-US negotiations, with an expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in. Attention should be paid to whether the ending stocks in the USDA report this week will remain around 300 million bushels, and the subsequent price oscillation range is expected to move up slightly. The domestic soybean meal market is gradually pricing in the de-stocking logic after the implementation of tariffs, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and far-term weakness. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. After China's decision to resume group tours to Canada, there is an additional expectation of negotiations, and considering the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The inventory of rapeseed meal at coastal areas and oil mills remains high, limiting the upside potential for price rebounds. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The trading focus is on the export demand of US soybeans and the de-stocking logic after tariff implementation. The external market is pricing in the expected export of 12 million tons of US soybeans to China, and attention is on the USDA report's ending stocks. The domestic market is pricing in the de-stocking logic, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and far-term weakness [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. The potential for demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to oscillate within a range. The oscillation range for M2601 is 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through the upper and lower bounds. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced or liquidated; a covered call strategy can be considered in combination with options, selling a 3300 call option as a covered call for M2601, and holding existing covered call positions; sell a 2600 call option for rapeseed meal 2601 [16]. 3.1.3 Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - **Basis Strategy**: The current basis can be considered in combination with the oscillation range, using accumulating options to reduce basis risk. The near-term basis is expected to strengthen. - **Spread Strategy**: Positions in M3 - 5 and M1 - 3 spreads can be reduced. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 when the spread is high (650 - 700) [17]. 3.1.4 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 6.8% over three years. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 17.6% and a historical percentile of 32.4% over three years. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Chicago soybean futures need a catalyst to rise further. US agricultural exporters are optimistic about the resumption of normal trade between China and the US. As of November 6, 61% of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop had been sown, up from 47% a week ago but below last year's 67%. The USDA will release its November supply and demand report on November 14 [24]. - **Negative Information**: Argentina's soybean sowing has started, but as of November 5, only 4.4% of the expected area had been sown, nearly 4 percentage points behind last year. Brazil's soybean exports in October were significantly higher than last year. Argentina's agricultural areas have experienced above - average rainfall, which may offset the risk of reduced rainfall caused by La Nina [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data. - Tuesday: Brazil Secex weekly report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report and Conab Brazil grain production survey. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural positions report and USDA monthly supply and demand report. Special attention should be paid to the USDA supply and demand report released at 1 am Beijing time on November 15 [29]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures followed the increase in external market costs this week, with long - positions adding and the price rebounding. The rapeseed meal futures adjusted this week after a significant rebound following previous China - Canada negotiations. - **Capital Flows**: In the soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets, foreign institutional short - positions were closed and long - positions were added, while institutional investors reduced long - positions and added short - positions, indicating limited upside potential for the rebound. The soybean meal option PCR indicator shows that the market's bullish sentiment has returned. - **Spread Structure**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures spreads generally show a B - structure in the first half of the year and a C - structure in the second half, mainly related to seasonal supply patterns. This week, the M1 - 5 spread first rose and then fell, related to the rebound of M01, and the RM1 - 5 spread weakened due to the decline of RM01. - **Basis Structure**: The soybean meal basis declined this week due to the increase in the futures price, with the spot price rising less than the futures. The rapeseed meal basis also declined for the same reason. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed, mainly due to the larger decline in rapeseed meal prices [30][31][34][40]. 3.3.2 External Market - **External Market Trends**: The external and domestic markets rebounded after a correction. After the expectation of China - US negotiations and news of soybean purchases, US soybean prices rebounded significantly, and the domestic market followed the cost increase. - **Capital Positions**: The net managed positions in CBOT soybeans have returned above the zero line, indicating a short - term return of long - position funds [45][50]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - In the soybean production areas, the crushing profit in the US has weakened due to the decline in soybean product prices, while the monthly crushing volume has remained at a high level for the year. The crushing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) have also weakened. The domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has rebounded due to the decline in rapeseed prices [52]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Crushing Profit Tracking - China mainly imports raw materials for domestic crushing, with a relatively small volume of direct imports of meal. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has declined recently due to the increase in import costs after the rebound of the US market, but it is still better than the profit under the current 13% tariff on US soybeans. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans is limited, and domestic soybean crushing is expected to decline seasonally. Although rapeseed imports offer crushing profits, due to import margin factors, subsequent ship bookings are expected to remain cautious [57]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 3.5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - For the September new - crop balance sheet, in terms of production, after a significant downward revision of the planted area in August, the area is expected to marginally increase, and after the yield was adjusted to the highest level in history, it is expected to marginally decline in subsequent months. The total production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. In terms of demand, the crushing volume will continue to grow due to domestic biodiesel policies, while exports will remain weak due to China - US trade relations. If China - US trade resumes, exports are expected to recover to above - normal levels. The ending stocks are expected to remain moderately tight. The October balance sheet was not released due to the US government shutdown. Attention should be paid to the balance sheet released by the government in November [61]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply and Projections - Considering the opening of US soybean imports, domestic soybean imports are expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to the lack of effective import profit, but will start to recover in the first quarter of next year. Rapeseed imports will continue to remain at a low level [63]. 3.5.3 Domestic Demand and Projections - Domestic soybean inventory carried over from the third quarter, combined with fourth - quarter arrivals, is expected to keep the crushing volume at a high level. After high - level pre - stocking of domestic soybean meal, subsequent consumption is unlikely to increase significantly [66]. 3.5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projections - Domestic soybean inventory is at a seasonal high but will decline in the fourth quarter as soybean imports decrease, and is expected to stabilize and recover in the first quarter of next year. The raw material inventory of domestic soybean meal will also decrease, and the crushing volume will decline. The soybean meal inventory is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [68].

Core Insights - The eighth China International Import Expo (CIIE) showcased the resilience of American companies, with exhibition space exceeding 50,000 square meters, maintaining the largest participation among countries for seven consecutive years [1] - Despite ongoing trade tensions between China and the U.S., American firms are seizing strategic opportunities in the Chinese market, particularly in the agricultural sector [1] Agricultural Cooperation - The President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, Michael Hart, emphasized the importance of agriculture in the U.S., noting that it is a key economic pillar in 49 out of 50 states [3] - Hart highlighted the shared concern for food security between the U.S. and China, despite the impact of tariffs on agricultural exports, particularly soybeans and sorghum [3][4] - Mark Wilson, a farmer and global president of the U.S. Grains Council, expressed a commitment to maintaining relationships with Chinese clients, viewing the market as highly valuable despite current challenges [4][5] Market Engagement - The increasing number of American companies participating in the CIIE reflects the significance of the Chinese market and the value of direct cooperation [5] - American businesses are using the expo to showcase innovations and connect with partners, aiming to better understand market trends in China [5] Concerns and Future Outlook - The American Chamber of Commerce conducts annual surveys to gauge concerns among U.S. companies, with current worries centered on U.S.-China relations [7] - Recent high-level meetings between the two nations' leaders are seen as positive signals for future relations, with calls for continued dialogue and concrete measures to address business concerns [7] - Both Hart and Wilson believe that focusing on common interests rather than differences is crucial for progress, with potential collaboration in areas like green energy, healthcare, and digital innovation [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The recent trade tensions between China and the U.S. illustrate a complex relationship where initial goodwill is quickly undermined by subsequent actions, highlighting a lack of genuine cooperation and trust [1][3][15]. Group 1: Trade Dynamics - China recently placed a significant order for 180,000 tons of soybeans from the U.S., signaling a desire for improved economic relations [3]. - Following this order, the U.S. announced a reduction in tariffs on certain Chinese goods, including a drop from high tariffs to 10% on fentanyl-related products, while also suspending a 24% tariff for a year [5][6]. - Despite these gestures, U.S. officials expressed skepticism about China's compliance with previous trade agreements, indicating a lack of trust [5][6]. Group 2: U.S. Actions Against Chinese Companies - Concurrently with tariff adjustments, the U.S. Federal Communications Commission initiated new restrictions targeting Chinese companies, citing national security concerns [8]. - New regulations could lead to the rejection of new applications and the removal of existing products from the market if they contain specific Chinese components, despite a lack of substantial evidence for these claims [8][9]. - This move resulted in a significant number of Chinese electronic products being removed from major U.S. e-commerce platforms, impacting availability and pricing for American consumers [9]. Group 3: Implications for Consumers and Market Dynamics - The actions taken by the U.S. are seen as detrimental not only to Chinese companies but also to American consumers, who may face higher prices and reduced product availability [9][11]. - China's response emphasizes that the U.S. is politicizing trade issues under the guise of national security, which undermines fair market competition and international norms [11][13]. - The ongoing trade relationship is characterized as interdependent, with both nations benefiting from mutual trade, suggesting that unilateral actions could lead to negative outcomes for both sides [15][17].

截至2025年11月7日当周，全球小麦市场在中美贸易关系缓和的乐观预期和出口市场激烈竞争之间摇 摆。芝加哥小麦期货在经历了空头回补带来的反弹后，再次因美国小麦在出口市场的竞争劣势而承压。 俄罗斯小麦出口加快，南半球丰产的小麦正在收获上市，成为笼罩在小麦市场上的阴云。 本周美国小麦市场经历了典型的"消息驱动"行情。周初，中国询盘乃至采购美国小麦的传闻持续发酵， 引发空头大规模回补。但是涨势未能在后半周延续，因为有分析指出，美国小麦FOB价格仍比全球其他 产地高出5至10美元，导致卖压再次涌现。美国小麦冲高回落表明，在缺乏大规模需求的情况下，美国 小麦难以维持涨势。 贸易曙光初现，但可持续性存疑 （来源：中华粮网） 来源：中华粮网 中华粮网致力于成为中国粮食行业最权威、最专业的信息及数据服务提供商。 市场最大变量为中国采购前景。中国本周证实，自11月10日起将暂停对包括小麦在内的美国农产品加征 的额外关税，为期一年。随后市场传出中国已采购至少一到两船美国白麦和硬红春麦，这将是一年多来 首次采购，被视为上周两国领导人达成贸易共识后的"善意姿态"。 但是美国政府持续停摆导致官方出口销售报告暂停发布，这些采购传闻无法获 ...

Trade Data Overview - In October 2025, exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, down from 8.3% in September, while imports increased by 1.0%, down from 7.4%[2] - The trade surplus for October was $90.07 billion, a decrease of $5.64 billion compared to the same month last year[2] Export Performance - The two-year compound growth rate for October exports was 5.55%, indicating resilience despite the month-on-month decline of 7.0%[2] - Exports to the U.S. saw a slight recovery, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.17%, improving by 1.86 percentage points from September[2] - Exports to the EU, ASEAN, and Japan all experienced declines, with year-on-year decreases of 13.26, 4.67, and 7.52 percentage points, respectively[2] Import Trends - October imports showed a significant month-on-month decline of 9.5%, weaker than the four-year average of -6.22%[2] - Key imports such as fertilizers and copper ore saw notable increases, while traditional demand-related imports like iron ore and steel continued to decline[2] Sector Insights - Midstream products dominated exports, with machinery and high-tech products experiencing declines of 9.7% and 11.4% year-on-year, respectively[2] - Certain sectors like shipbuilding and automotive showed significant recovery, reflecting ongoing strengths in midstream manufacturing[2] Economic Outlook - The report highlights the need for policy support to stabilize domestic demand, as import growth remains low despite five consecutive months of positive growth[3] - Risks include potential delays in domestic policy implementation and changes in U.S.-China tariff issues[3]

Core Points - The U.S. government has announced a one-year suspension of port fees on Chinese vessels as part of a broader agreement to ease trade tensions, marking a significant concession in trade negotiations with China [1][2] - The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) stated that all punitive measures related to the "301 investigation" against China will be suspended starting November 10, 2023, with negotiations to follow [1][2] - The suspension of port fees and tariffs on container cranes and truck chassis will last until November 9, 2026, relieving shipping operators from significant costs during this period [2][3] Industry Impact - Shipping operators may delay the arrival of vessels to U.S. ports to avoid incurring millions of dollars in fees, as the suspension is set to take effect shortly [2] - Matson, a major U.S. shipping company, welcomed the agreement, noting that it had already paid $6.4 million due to previous measures and could have faced $80 million annually in port fees if the measures were not suspended [3][6] - The USTR has received positive feedback regarding the suspension, with stakeholders highlighting the potential for reduced costs and improved operational stability in the shipping industry [5][6] Trade Relations - The suspension of fees is seen as a reciprocal measure, with both the U.S. and China agreeing to pause their respective punitive measures for one year [6][7] - The move is expected to enhance trade competitiveness and ensure smooth passage through critical shipping routes, benefiting exporters, importers, and consumers [6][7] - The ongoing uncertainty in U.S.-China relations remains a concern, as the potential for reinstating fees could arise if diplomatic relations deteriorate [5][6]

Core Insights - The recent trade truce between China and the U.S. has led to a normalization of trade relations, with the U.S. reducing tariffs on China and China resuming soybean imports from the U.S. [3][5] - China has made a rare inquiry about purchasing U.S. wheat, marking its first interest in U.S. wheat in nearly a year, which is seen as a goodwill gesture towards the U.S. [3][5] - The inquiry has caused a significant impact on U.S. futures markets, with Chicago wheat futures rising by 1.8%, reaching a new high since July [5] Trade Dynamics - The inquiry for U.S. wheat follows China's recent soybean orders, indicating a strategic approach to gauge U.S. responses and potentially create a trade surplus for the U.S. [5][7] - The U.S. benefits politically from increased agricultural imports from China, which could enhance Trump's domestic standing amid political struggles [7][9] - China's diversified grain import strategy aims to ensure food security and stability, reducing reliance on any single country, including the U.S. [11][12] Global Context - The global agricultural landscape is affected by climate change and geopolitical tensions, necessitating China's imports to balance domestic supply and demand [12] - China's position as a major consumer market with significant purchasing power is crucial for U.S. economic interests [9][12] - Despite external pressures, China maintains a strategic focus on its trade relations with the U.S., emphasizing the importance of cooperation over conflict [14]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy Recommendations**: None - **Sell Recommendations**: None - **Hold Recommendations**: None - **Neutral Recommendations**: None - **Specific Ratings for Commodities**: - **Douyi (Soybean 1)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Douyou (Soybean Oil)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Biaowangyou (Labeled Oil)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Doupo (Soybean Meal)**: ★☆☆ (One red star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability) [1] - **Caipo (Rapeseed Meal)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Yaoyou (Medicinal Oil)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Yumi (Corn)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Shengzhu (Live Pigs)**: ★★★ (Red stars, indicating a predicted upward trend) [1] - **Jidan (Eggs)**: ★☆☆ (One red star, indicating a bullish bias but limited trading operability) [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products, including soybeans, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live pigs, and eggs. It assesses the market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements of each product, and gives investment suggestions based on these analyses [2][3][4][6][7][8]. Summary by Commodity Soybean 1 - The main contract of Douyi significantly reduced its positions, and the price declined from the high level, affected by surrounding commodities. The price of US soybeans dropped from the high due to the easing of trade optimism. CGC started soybean procurement, with a preference for high - quality soybeans. The supply of domestic high - protein soybeans is tight this year due to adverse weather, and the market has optimistic expectations for them. Short - term policy guidance should be continuously monitored [2]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - The Dalian futures contract continued to fluctuate widely and correct. The tariff for importing US soybeans in China is now 13%, and there is still no price advantage for commercial imports. As of November 6, the CNF price of US Gulf/West soybeans (December shipment) is $506/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans (December shipment) is $500/ton. With similar CNF prices and a 10% tariff difference, commercial purchases are unlikely. As the import cost rises, the crushing margin has improved, and it is expected that there will be a destocking situation for domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year. The USDA will release the November supply - demand report on November 14. Opportunities for buying on dips after the easing of Sino - US trade relations should be followed [3]. Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - The price of US soybeans dropped from the high due to the easing of trade optimism. After the recent rise, the spread between the near - month FOB premium of US soybeans and that of Brazil has recovered to a higher level than the same period last year. The market is expected to focus on the guidance of the USDA report. Palm oil stopped falling and rebounded, but the rebound momentum on the disk is still weak. After the recent decline, the bearish momentum of palm oil has been continuously released, and the short - selling momentum at the price stage has eased. Whether the performance at this position is sustainable should be monitored. The probability of a short - term stabilization of palm oil with a bearish near - term supply - demand situation should be followed [4]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The expected pressure on the price of overseas oilseeds has a negative impact on the domestic rapeseed futures prices, and the main contracts of rapeseed products declined slightly. Canadian farmers are less willing to sell rapeseed due to low prices, and exports have increased slightly but remain sluggish. Although the news of strengthened rapeseed trade between Canada and Pakistan has boosted the export prospects of Canadian rapeseed, the market capacity of Pakistan is limited. The price of rapeseed futures is expected to remain under pressure. Domestic coastal oil mills have shut down due to a shortage of rapeseed. The arrival of Australian rapeseed in China should be monitored. The price difference between rapeseed products and other competing products is still high, which suppresses the consumption cost - effectiveness of rapeseed products. It is recommended to change the short - term long strategy for rapeseed meal to a wait - and - see approach and focus on the marginal changes at the oilseed import end [6]. Corn - Dalian corn futures fluctuated weakly. The increase in the supply of new corn in Northeast China has decreased, and the price is stable with a slight upward trend. In Shandong, the supply has increased, and the number of remaining vehicles at deep - processing plants in the morning is 1353. Sino - US relations may ease, and after the tax reduction announced by the Tariff Commission of the State Council, the tariff for importing US corn in China is now 11% within the quota and 75% outside the quota. The signing of the latest Sino - US economic and trade agreement should be continuously monitored. The change in the enthusiasm of grain listing in the Northeast should be followed, and currently, the market is considered to be in a weak bottom - range oscillation, and the inflection point is not clear [6]. Live Pigs - The price of live pig futures fluctuated within a narrow range, and the overall position increased. The spot price also showed a narrow - range consolidation. According to Yongyi data, the inventory of breeding sows decreased month - on - month in October, continuing the de - stocking trend for two consecutive months. Fundamentally, on one hand, due to the continuous recovery of production capacity, the number of live pig slaughterings will continue to increase in the later stage. On the other hand, the rebound of pig prices after the National Day was mainly driven by the entry of second - fattening farmers. However, second - fattening will increase the later - stage slaughtering pressure, and the average slaughter weight of live pigs this year is at the highest level in the past three years. The slaughter of second - fattened pigs will further impact the spot market. The futures market has priced in the potential supply pressure in advance. Historically, the bottom of the pig cycle often shows a double - bottom "W" shape. The low pig price in October is likely the first emotional bottoming, and it is expected that pig prices will have a high probability of a second bottoming in the first half of next year under the background of continuous supply pressure and off - season demand [7]. Eggs - Egg futures first declined and then rose, with an overall reduction in positions. The spot price increased today. The in - production inventory decreased slightly month - on - month in October but is still at a historically high level. The chick replenishment data in October remained sluggish, which is beneficial for improving the long - term supply outlook. However, the far - month contracts already contain a high price premium. The number of culled laying hens in the spot market increased, and the culling age decreased, indicating that the sentiment of culling old hens has increased. The disk has maintained a strong pattern recently, and opportunities for shorting on highs in the fourth quarter should be awaited [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the CBOT soybean market fluctuated with news of China's soybean purchases from the US, and the domestic soybean meal market followed suit. The soybean oil market was weak, and the palm oil market awaited the MPOB report. The domestic vegetable oil market showed a differentiated trend [6][60]. - Next week, the protein - meal market will focus on the USDA report, with expectations of a significant reduction in US soybean inventory. The domestic soybean meal market has high inventory pressure and is driven by cost. The oil market will pay attention to the MPOB report and 11 - day export data in November. The overall oil market is weakly operating, awaiting the guidance of the two reports [125][126]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Protein Meal Market Analysis 3.1.1 Weekly Market Review - The CBOT soybean price first rose and then fell this week. The domestic soybean meal market followed the trend of US soybeans, with the futures price rising first and then falling. Although the domestic soybean meal inventory reached a new high, the oil mills' willingness to support the price of soybean meal increased due to losses [6]. 3.1.2 US Market - US Soybean Export Situation - As of the week ending October 30, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 965,063 tons, a decrease from the previous week and the same period last year. The cumulative export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season decreased by 40.0% year - on - year, and the export reached 17.0% of the annual target [13]. 3.1.3 North American Market - South American Weather - As of October 30, 2025, the sowing progress of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 47%, higher than that of the previous week but lower than the same period last year. Some regions had problems such as excessive rainfall or insufficient rainfall [24]. 3.1.4 Domestic and Foreign Oilseed Markets - Chinese importers increased their purchases of Brazilian soybeans due to price advantages. The US Department of Agriculture will release a production report and a supply - demand report on November 14, which will adjust the production expectations of major crops [24][31]. 3.1.5 Soybean - Port Inventory and Pressing Profit - As of the end of the 44th week, the domestic port's imported soybean inventory was about 8.4022 million tons, and the theoretical inventory at the end of next week is expected to be 5.04 million tons. The domestic soybean pressing is still in a loss situation, but the loss has narrowed [37]. 3.1.6 Soybean - Import Cost and Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - The cost of US Gulf soybeans arriving at the port in December (with additional tariffs) is 4,891 yuan/ton, and that of Brazilian soybeans arriving in November is 3,949 yuan/ton. The Brazilian premium dropped significantly this week [41]. 3.1.7 Soybean Meal - Soybean Starting Rate and Soybean Meal Inventory - As of the end of the 44th week, the average starting rate of domestic soybean oil mills was 61.59%, a decrease of 4.83% from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 1.208 million tons, an increase of 156,000 tons from the previous week [45]. 3.1.8 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Weekly Apparent Consumption - The estimated apparent consumption of soybean meal in the 44th week was 1.6624 million tons, a decrease from the previous week [47]. 3.1.9 Rapeseed Meal - Rapeseed Starting Rate and Pressing Volume - As of the end of the 44th week, the starting rate of domestic imported rapeseed processing enterprises was 1.47%, an increase of 0.49% from the previous week. The pressing volume of imported rapeseed was 0.6 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons from the previous week [53]. 3.2 Grease Market Analysis 3.2.1 Weekly Market Review - This week, the US soybean oil was in a low - level shock, and the Malaysian palm oil oscillated downward. The domestic vegetable oil market showed a differentiated trend. The soybean oil rose slightly, the palm oil was weak, and the rapeseed oil rebounded slightly [60]. 3.2.2 International Grease Information - The MPOB will release monthly supply - demand data on November 10. It is estimated that the Malaysian palm oil inventory in October will reach 2.44 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.4%. Indian edible oil imports in October are estimated to have dropped to a five - month low [64][65]. 3.2.3 Three Major Vegetable Oil Futures and Spot Price Trends - The futures and spot prices of the three major vegetable oils showed different trends, with the overall performance of rapeseed oil > soybean oil > palm oil this week, and the soybean - palm oil price difference continued to rise [98]. 3.2.4 Domestic Grease Inventory - As of the end of the 44th week, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.5728 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58,200 tons. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.4618 million tons, the palm oil inventory was 0.5383 million tons, and the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.5728 million tons [81]. 3.2.5 Grease Basis Analysis - The basis of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil showed different trends, with the basis of each variety fluctuating [89][92][95]. 3.2.6 Grease and Oilseed Variety Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the oil - meal ratio of soybeans and rapeseed decreased, and the price difference between the main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed [103]. 3.2.7 Protein Meal Inter - Monthly Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal continued to rise [108]. 3.2.8 Grease Inter - Monthly Spread Arbitrage Relationship - This week, the 1 - 5 spread of soybean oil rebounded slightly, the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil fluctuated narrowly, and the 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil also fluctuated narrowly [111]. 3.3 Market Outlook 3.3.1 Seasonal Analysis - The seasonal analysis of the US soybean, soybean meal, domestic soybean meal, and other markets shows their historical price trends in different months [115][116][118]. 3.3.2 Next - Week Market Outlook - **Technical Level**: The short - term and medium - term indicators of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are bullish, and the long - term indicators are entangled. The short - term, medium - term, and long - term indicators of soybean oil and rapeseed oil are entangled. The short - term and medium - term indicators of palm oil are bearish, and the long - term indicators are entangled [124]. - **Fundamentals**: The protein - meal market focuses on the USDA report, with expectations of a significant reduction in US soybean inventory. The domestic soybean meal market has high inventory pressure and is driven by cost. The oil market pays attention to the MPOB report and 11 - day export data in November. The overall oil market is weakly operating, awaiting the guidance of the two reports [125][126].

Export Data Overview - In October, China's exports (in USD) recorded a year-on-year decline of -1.1%, down from +8.3% in September, marking the first negative growth since March 2025[3] - Exports to the US saw a significant drop of -25.2%, slightly improving from September's -27.0%[3] - Exports to ASEAN maintained resilience with a growth rate of +11.0%, down from +15.6% in September[3] Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU grew by only +0.9%, a sharp decline from +14.2% in September[3] - Exports to Africa and Latin America still showed positive growth but decreased significantly, from +56.4% and +15.2% in September to +10.5% and +2.1% respectively[3] Product Category Insights - Labor-intensive products like clothing, bags, and footwear experienced substantial declines, with growth rates of -16.0%, -25.7%, and -21.0% respectively[3] - High-tech manufacturing exports remained strong, with mobile phone exports dropping from -1.7% in September to -16.6% in October, while integrated circuits, automobiles, and ships recorded growth rates of +26.9%, +34.0%, and +68.4% respectively[3] Seasonal and Trade Relationship Factors - October's export data reflects seasonal trends, with a historical average month-on-month decline of -3.8% due to the National Day holiday[3] - The easing of US-EU trade tensions has contributed to the decline in exports to the EU, with a month-on-month decrease of -8.6% in October[3] - The phenomenon of "export rush" appears to be waning, impacting growth rates to ASEAN and other emerging markets[3] Future Outlook and Risks - There is a potential risk of further decline in export growth rates in Q4, with the possibility of turning negative due to higher base effects in November and December[3] - Ongoing uncertainties in US-China trade relations and a potential slowdown in global economic growth pose additional risks to export performance[3]