据环球时报，美国政府23日宣布，将在2027年对中国芯片加征关税， 结束了上届拜登政府发起的针对中国芯片的贸易调查。 美媒分析称，尽管美国政府称中国在芯片产业中的做法"损害美国利益"， 但最终决定至少在18个月内不对中国芯片加征额外关税。 彭博社说，暂缓加征新关税是美国政府寻求巩固中美"休战"协议、稳定中美关系的最新信号。 ...

我们敦促美方尽快纠正错误做法，以两国元首达成的重要共识为引领，在平等、尊重、互惠的基础上， 通过对话解决各自关切，妥善管控分歧，维护中美关系稳定、健康、可持续发展。如果美方一意孤行， 中方必将坚决采取相应措施，维护自身正当权益。 林剑：中方坚决反对美方滥施关税，无理打压中国产业。美方的做法扰乱全球产供链稳定，阻碍各国半 导体产业发展，损人害己。 中国外交部发言人林剑24日主持例行记者会。有记者就美国拟自2027年起对中国半导体产业征收关税提 问。 (责任编辑：朱赫) ...

农产品事业部 大豆、双粕年度报告 2026 ANNUAL REPORT 弘业期货 2026 大豆、双粕年度报告 弘业期货 2026 大豆、双粕年度报告 农产品事业部 大豆、双粕年报：国际环境多变，豆系走势分化 摘要： 供应方面：国内种植结构调整接近完成，大豆种植面积逐渐趋稳，大 豆单产水平增长放缓，大豆产量持续增加。新豆销售较快，但品质分化， 东北高蛋白豆受欢迎。进口大豆持续创纪录，尽管此前中美贸易摩擦，进 口美豆暂停，但南美取代替位，贸易和谈后进口美豆或恢复常态。从全球 供需来看，美豆播种面积相对稳定，新季度产量下降，出口下降，但其压 榨增加，期末库存止升转降；南美巴西大豆产量及出口均持续增加，阿根 廷降税等措施促进其大豆出口，弱拉尼娜预期对南美新季大豆产量预计影 响有限；全球大豆期末库存仍在高位。 需求方面：国内油厂大豆库存充足，且明年 1 季度美豆补充，油厂开 机率高于去年，豆粕产量高，豆粕库存较高；压榨需求或好于预期。下游 畜禽高存栏支撑豆粕饲料需求，但养殖长期大幅亏损或加速后期去产能步 伐，且政策上饲料豆粕使用减量、替代，饲企对豆粕需求并不迫切。 技术方面：豆系均处于熊市底部，但豆一有企稳迹象，豆粕 ...

Group 1 - After Trump's strong trade policies towards China, the U.S. soybean market faced significant turmoil, with prices dropping and farmers in the Midwest under pressure due to China's halt in soybean purchases [1] - China shifted its soybean purchases to South America, leading to a sharp decline in U.S. soybean exports, while the EU and Japan criticized China's trade practices and sought to persuade the U.S. for multilateral sanctions [1] - A temporary agreement was reached in late October, where China committed to purchasing 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans, and the U.S. temporarily suspended some tariffs [3] Group 2 - By November, China began placing large orders, resulting in a recovery of U.S. soybean exports, and Trump extended tariff exemptions in exchange for further soybean purchases from China [5] - Despite dissatisfaction from allies regarding unilateral actions, the U.S. maintained that China's reliability as a major commodity buyer was crucial for global supply chains [5] - By early December, China's procurement had reached half of the agreed target, stabilizing the U.S. soybean market and leading to a slight price increase [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, South American soybeans are likely to have a significant yield increase, but the impact of La Niña on southern Brazil and Argentina should be monitored. The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season remains at a historically low level, supporting US soybean prices, and there is still room for adjustment in US soybean yield and exports. It is expected that the downward price movement of US soybeans is limited [5]. - On the demand side, the crushing profit of imported soybeans in China is generally in the red, leading oil mills to strengthen their price - holding intentions, which supports the price of soybean meal. The Chinese government is releasing imported soybeans through auctions, and the high transaction prices support the near - month contracts of soybean meal. In the Chinese pig - farming sector, the number of pig slaughterings in 2026 may increase year - on - year, but due to the loss - making situation in farming, the average slaughter weight of pigs is expected to decline year - on - year. In the Chinese poultry sector, the number of major meat - type poultry slaughterings is expected to continue growing in 2026, but the growth rate may slow down. In the Chinese egg - laying hen sector, due to the large inventory base of laying hens, past profitability in farming, and low market enthusiasm for culling, the inventory of laying hens in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to remain at a high level [5]. - Overall, with a high probability of South American soybean yield increase and stable domestic demand, the supply - demand situation is loose. There is no strong driving force for a significant increase in soybean and rapeseed meal prices. It is expected that the prices of soybean and rapeseed meal will mainly fluctuate within a wide range [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Annual Viewpoints and Strategies - Supply - side: In 2026, South American soybeans are likely to increase in production, but attention should be paid to La Niña's influence on southern Brazil and Argentina. The low inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans supports prices, and there is potential for adjustment in US soybean yield and exports [5]. - Demand - side: Domestic soybean crushing losses lead to stronger price - holding by oil mills. The government's soybean auctions with high prices support near - month contracts. Pig slaughter volume may increase in 2026, but weight may decline. Meat - type poultry slaughter is expected to grow with a slowdown in the rate. Laying hen inventory is expected to stay high in Q1 2026 [5]. - Overall: With supply - demand balance, soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [5]. Strategy Views and Outlook - Unilateral: The main contract of soybean meal may fluctuate widely, with a reference range of 2650 - 3000. For options, consider buying put options after price increases [7]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for now [7]. - Outlook: Key factors to watch include the weather in South American soybean - growing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and China - Canada and China - US trade relations [7]. International Situation - US Interest Rates: In September 2025, the US unemployment rate was 4.4%, slightly lower than the Fed's expected 4.5% but higher than the long - term target of 4.2%. The number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000, less than the target of 200,000. Due to the lag in CPI data release caused by the government shutdown and the expected decline in core CPI after considering the easing of China - US trade relations, there is a need for the US to cut interest rates in 2026 [10][12][14]. - China - US Trade: After the meeting between Chinese and US leaders in late October 2025, trade relations eased, and China promised to purchase 1.2 billion tons of US soybeans. On November 5, China officially announced retaining a 10% tariff on US goods, so the current tariff rate for importing US soybeans is 13%. Since resuming imports, China has imported about 4 million tons of US soybeans [18]. - China - Canada Trade: On August 12, 2025, China's Ministry of Commerce imposed a 75.8% deposit on Canadian rapeseed imports, leading to a halt in imports in October [20]. Domestic Situation - Domestic Prices: In October 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, and PPI decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, indicating weak consumer demand [25]. - GDP Growth: In recent years, due to the in - depth adjustment of the domestic real estate market and the severe external environment, China's GDP growth rate has slowed down [29]. Policy - related Expectations - Anti - dumping Investigation on Canadian Rapeseed: The result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed will be announced before March 9, 2026. The outcome is still uncertain, depending on China - Canada and Canada - US trade relations [34][35]. - State Auction of Imported Soybeans: On December 11, 2025, the National Grain Trading Center auctioned 512,500 tons of imported soybeans (from 2022 and 2023). The trading volume was 397,043 tons, with an average price of 3,935.3 yuan/ton and a trading ratio of 77.5%. The market expects a total of about 4 million tons of imported soybeans to be auctioned, and subsequent auctions need attention [37]. Fundamentals - Futures Price Trends: Since 2025, soybean meal futures prices have risen first, then fallen, and finally fluctuated widely. The price increase in Q1 was due to low imported soybean arrival; the decline in Q2 was due to sufficient supply; in Q4, prices fluctuated weakly with the easing of China - US trade relations [45]. - Feed Futures Contract Spreads: The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal has fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is recommended to wait and see [50]. Impact Factors on Supply - La Niña's Impact: The latest Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is - 0.6, below the - 0.5 threshold. Most models suggest La Niña will persist in the Northern Hemisphere winter. However, NOAA predicts a 61% chance of ENSO turning neutral from January to March 2026, and the impact on South American soybean production is expected to be limited [58]. - US Soybean Inventory - to - Sales Ratio: According to the December USDA report, the inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 6.74%, at a historically low level, which supports US soybean prices and limits the downward price space [60][61]. - Brazilian Soybean Exports: As of early December 2025, Brazilian farmers' soybean sales progress reached 95.17%. Before the new harvest, Brazil's available soybean exports are limited [67]. - South American Soybean Planting: As of December 5, 2025, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 90.3%, and as of December 11, Argentina's soybean planting progress was 58.6%. Overall, the planting progress is normal. Although La Niña needs attention, Brazil's soybean production is likely to increase due to the expanded planting area [71]. Demand - side Factors - Pig Farming: In 2025, the inventory of sows capable of reproduction was at a historically high level, indicating a possible year - on - year increase in pig slaughter in 2026. However, due to losses in farming, the average slaughter weight of pigs is expected to decline year - on - year [76]. - Poultry Farming: In 2025, the inventory of parent - generation white - feather broilers was high, and the supply of chicks in the first quarter of 2026 is expected to keep growing. The number of major meat - type poultry slaughterings is expected to grow, but at a slower rate. The inventory of laying hens in 2025 reached a historical high, and it is expected to remain high in the first quarter of 2026 [78]. Import and Inventory - Soybean Imports: In November 2025, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.373 million tons from October and an increase of 953,000 tons (13.32%) from November 2024. From January to November 2025, the cumulative soybean imports were 103.7814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6872 million tons (6.89%) [80]. - Rapeseed Imports: In October 2025, China's rapeseed imports were 0 tons. From January to October, the cumulative rapeseed imports were 2.4458 million tons, a 51.8% decrease from the same period last year [84]. - Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory: As of December 5, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.1552 million tons, a 2.51% decrease from the previous week and a 30.80% increase from last year. The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.1619 million tons, a 3.43% decrease from the previous week and a 70.74% increase from last year [89]. - Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory: As of December 5, 2025, the coastal oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.02 million tons. The low inventory is due to the off - season of aquaculture, and the sufficient supply of soybean meal suppresses rapeseed meal prices [93]. Technical Analysis - The current price of the soybean meal 2605 contract is at a historically low level [99].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 2025/26 season, the planting area of new - season US soybeans decreased significantly year - on - year. There is a high possibility of further reducing the yield per unit in January, with an estimated year - on - year decrease of 3 - 5 million tons in production. The CBOT soybean price is expected to have limited downside, with a support level at 1000 - 1050 cents per bushel, and the price center is expected to rise to 1200 - 1300 cents per bushel. South American soybean premiums are expected to be weak [2][210][246]. - In the domestic market, domestic soybean production is expected to increase again in the 2025/26 season. The price of soybean No. 1 is likely to rise in the first quarter of 2026, with an upper limit of 4300 - 4350 yuan per ton, and may be weak in the second and third quarters, with a lower limit of 3750 - 3800 yuan per ton. The market for soybean meal and soybean oil is expected to be strong first and then weak in 2026 [4][220][247]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Sections Part 1: Market Review - **2025 CBOT Soybean Price Bottomed out and Rose**: The long - term cycle of US soybean prices is about 4 - 5 years. In 2025, the price was affected by trade frictions, soybean production, and biodiesel policies. The non - commercial net position of CBOT soybeans turned positive in the second quarter, and the speculative market maintained a bullish sentiment [20][24][27]. - **2025 Chinese Crushed Soybean and Soybean Meal Price Centers Rose**: The prices of soybean No. 2 and soybean meal showed a volatile upward trend. The market changed from "strong reality + weak expectation" before May to "weak reality + strong expectation" after May, mainly affected by factors such as soybean arrivals, trade relations, and biodiesel policies [31]. - **2025 Chinese Soybean Oil Price Rose**: The main - contract price of soybean oil on the DCE found support at 7500 yuan per ton and stabilized above 8000 yuan per ton. It was affected by factors such as soybean arrivals, geopolitical conflicts, and biodiesel policies [43]. - **2025 Chinese Edible Soybean Market Price Strengthened**: The futures price of soybean No. 1 on the DCE ended a three - year decline. The increase was mainly due to the active acquisition by middle - stream traders and the support of state - owned grain reserves. There was a structural supply shortage of high - protein soybeans [47]. Part 2: Global Soybean Supply - Demand Situation Analysis - **Global Oilseed Market Supply is Sufficient**: In the 2024/25 season, global oilseed production increased to 685 million tons, and in the 2025/26 season, it is expected to reach 690 million tons. The growth rate of soybean production has slowed down, while the demand growth rate has increased, and the supply - demand situation has eased [52]. - **US Soybean Supply - Demand is First Loose and Then Tight**: - **Production Decline**: The planting area of new - season US soybeans in the 2025/26 season decreased significantly, and the yield per unit may also decline. The production is expected to be between 114 - 116 million tons, a decrease of 3 - 5 million tons compared to the previous year [66]. - **Demand Analysis**: US soybean demand mainly comes from crushing and exports. Crushing consumption is affected by biodiesel policies, and exports depend on China's purchases. In recent years, crushing consumption has been strong, while export demand has decreased [76]. - **Supply - Demand Summary**: Due to the decline in production and the increase in crushing consumption, the inventory - consumption ratio of new - season US soybeans may decrease, supporting the upward movement of the CBOT soybean price center in 2026 [93]. - **South American Soybean Premiums Declined**: In 2025, South American soybeans had a good harvest. Brazilian soybean premiums were strong before October but declined later due to Sino - US trade negotiations. The sowing of new - season South American soybeans is going smoothly, and premiums are expected to remain under pressure [94][95][96]. Part 3: Domestic Bean Supply - Demand Situation - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Situation**: - **Continuous Production Increase**: In the 2025/26 season, domestic soybean production is expected to approach 21 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the sowing area in Heilongjiang. The planting cost has decreased, and there are various subsidies [132]. - **Consumption Needs Improvement**: About 90% of domestic soybeans are used for food processing. The demand for domestic non - genetically modified soybeans has room for growth, especially in the crushing sector. The consumption of domestic soybeans is affected by policies and the market [133]. - **Supply - Demand Summary**: In 2025, domestic soybeans had a good harvest, and the supply was sufficient. The price had a strong support at the bottom but lacked the driving force for continuous upward movement [141]. - **Crushed Soybean Supply - Demand Situation**: - **Increased Import Cost**: In 2025, the import cost of soybeans in China increased, mainly due to the rise in the CBOT soybean price, the increase in South American soybean premiums, and the change in the exchange rate. The crushing profit first increased and then decreased [143]. - **Increased Bean Imports and Arrivals**: In 2025, the import and arrival of soybeans in China increased, with a record high in October. The imports of soybean meal and soybean oil were relatively small and had little impact on the market [158][165][167]. - **Beans Inventory Remained at a High Level**: In 2025, the inventory of the domestic crushed soybean industry chain first decreased and then increased. Currently, the inventory of crushed soybeans is at a high level, the inventory of soybean meal is at a relatively low level, and the inventory of soybean oil is around the average level. The inventory is expected to stop increasing and decline in the fourth quarter [169][170][171]. - **Terminal Demand Situation**: - **Soybean Meal Consumption is Expected to Turn from Strong to Weak**: In 2025, the feed production in China increased significantly. However, as the aquaculture industry falls into losses, the production capacity and inventory of pigs and poultry are expected to decline in 2026, and feed consumption is expected to decrease. The substitution of rapeseed meal and wheat for soybean meal has both positive and negative effects, but overall, the feed consumption of soybean meal in 2025 is expected to continue to increase, and it is estimated to decrease to 76.2 million tons in the 2025/26 season, a year - on - year decrease of 2.57% [178][179][180]. - **Soybean Oil Consumption is Weak**: In the 2024/25 season, the edible consumption of oils in China decreased. Since May 2025, the downstream inventory of oils has been inactive. Although the price of soybean oil futures has risen, the overall consumption of oils is still weak, but the consumption share of soybean oil is increasing [198]. Part 4: International Soybean Market Logic and US Soybean Price Judgment - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, emphasizing the impact of the decline in US soybean production, trade relations, and biodiesel policies on the CBOT soybean price, and the expected weak performance of South American soybean premiums [210]. Part 5: Domestic Bean Supply - Demand Balance and Market Judgment - The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, including the prediction of the price trend of domestic soybean No. 1, soybean meal, and soybean oil in 2026, and the impact of supply and demand factors [220][221][247]. Part 6: Arbitrage Opportunity Analysis - **Basis Trend is Expected to be Strong First and Then Weak**: The basis of domestic soybean meal in 2025 was weak. In 2026, the basis is expected to be strong in the first quarter and decline after April [230]. - **Soybean - Rapeseed Meal Price Spread is Expected to Remain Low**: Due to the tense Sino - Canadian trade relations and the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed, the price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to remain low in 2026 [235]. - **Bean Oil - Meal Ratio is Bearish in the Medium and Long Term**: The supply - side logics of soybean meal and soybean oil are similar, but the demand - side performance is different. The bean oil - meal ratio is expected to rise first and then fall, and short - term long and medium - to - long - term short operations are recommended [238]. Part 7: Main Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Comprehensive Judgment and Operational Strategy**: The analysis is consistent with the core viewpoints of the report, providing specific price ranges and operational suggestions for the price trends of CBOT soybeans, domestic soybean No. 1, soybean meal, and soybean oil in 2026 [246][247][248]. - **Futures and Options Operational Strategy**: In 2026, the soybean meal market is expected to rise first and then fall. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on soybean meal in the first quarter and take short positions after May Day. The price of soybean oil is expected to be high first and then low. It is recommended to take long positions with a light position or sell out - of - the - money put options in the first quarter and take short positions after May Day [249]. - **Seasonal Trend of Bean Index**: Relevant figures are provided, but no specific analysis content is given. Part 8: Related Stocks - The report lists the price changes of related stocks in 2025, including companies in the feed, soybean planting and trading, aquaculture, and oil processing industries [273].

Group 1 - The domestic soybean meal market is currently experiencing a complex interplay of bullish and bearish factors, with tight U.S. soybean supply but a generally loose global soybean supply [2] - The USDA has lowered U.S. soybean yield, production, and ending stocks, with the stocks-to-use ratio dropping to a three-year low of 6.74%, despite some recovery in Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans [2] - Global soybean inventory is projected to decrease to 122 million tons for the 2025/2026 season, but this still represents a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, indicating a shift from accumulation to moderate destocking [2] Group 2 - The La Niña phenomenon may introduce complexities for South American soybean growth, with Brazil's soybean planting progress lagging behind last year, yet yield forecasts remain high [3] - Argentina's soybean planting is significantly delayed due to flooding, and if adverse weather persists into December, the estimated production of 48.5 million tons may face downward revision [3] Group 3 - China's port soybean inventory remains high, with a year-on-year increase of 292.95 million tons, reaching 9.425 million tons as of November 21 [4] - Market expectations indicate that China will import 8 million tons and 7.5 million tons of soybeans in November and December, respectively, with total imports expected to exceed 110 million tons in 2025 [4] - Even without U.S. soybean imports, domestic soybean supply is expected to remain ample through the fourth quarter due to high inventory levels [4] Group 4 - Domestic oil mills are operating at high capacity, with weekly soybean crushing volumes around 2.3 million tons, leading to a significant increase in soybean meal inventory [5] - As of November 21, soybean meal inventory reached 1.1515 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 38.11 million tons, reflecting a 49.47% rise [5] - Despite stable demand from livestock and poultry, cautious purchasing behavior from feed companies limits the growth of soybean meal consumption [5] Group 5 - The cost of imported soybeans is providing strong support for soybean meal prices, with high premiums for Brazilian soybeans and a rebound in U.S. soybean futures prices [6] - The overall global soybean supply remains loose, but high import costs are limiting the downside potential for soybean meal prices [6] - Future price movements will depend on South American weather conditions and developments in U.S.-China trade relations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strengthening of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar is primarily driven by market expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, with the RMB appreciating nearly 5% from its April low of 7.43 to around 7.07, marking a new high since October 14 of last year [1] Group 1: Currency Dynamics - The RMB's appreciation is significantly influenced by the market's rising expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, which has increased to approximately 80% since the dovish signals from the Fed on November 21 [1] - Despite fluctuations in the US dollar index due to the depreciation of the Japanese yen, the RMB has maintained a robust position, indicating a dual strength of both the dollar and the RMB [1] - The recent RMB appreciation is largely driven by market forces, reflecting a broader trend of strengthening against most currencies [1] Group 2: Economic Fundamentals - The foundation for the RMB's strength lies in China's resilient economic fundamentals, with exports continuing to grow despite US tariffs, and a GDP growth target of 5% appearing achievable [2] - China's significant position in the global supply chain and trade system provides a strong basis for its economic resilience amid trade tensions [2] - The recent policies aimed at curbing disorderly competition have stabilized key economic indicators, alleviating market concerns about persistent price declines and interest rate cuts, thereby boosting market confidence [2] Group 3: Internationalization of the RMB - The questioning of the US dollar's credibility due to high debt levels and protectionist tendencies has created opportunities for the internationalization of the RMB, with its global trading volume rising to $817 billion daily, accounting for 8.5% of global forex trading [3] - As of the end of October, the scale of offshore RMB loans by financial institutions reached approximately 2.5 trillion yuan, reflecting a 37.5% year-on-year increase, indicating accelerated international use of the RMB [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - Given the solid economic fundamentals of China and the overarching trend of RMB internationalization, the RMB is likely to continue its strong performance [4]

研究报告 橡胶周报 供需矛盾并不明显，盘面或将维持震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2601 价格在 15125-15580 元/吨 之间运行，上周 RU2601 期货价格震荡运行，总体微幅上涨。 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 截至 2025 年 11 月 21 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2601 报收 15240 元/吨，当周上涨 25 点，涨幅 0.16%。 【后市展望】 上周国内天然橡胶期货主力合约价格震荡运行，总体微幅 上涨。 报告日期：2025 年 11 月 24 日星期一 展望后市，宏观方面，受非农数据影响，美联储降息预期 减弱，影响商品情绪。从基本面来看，供给方面，橡胶成本端 存在支撑。10 月天然橡胶进口数量同比小幅增加，1-10 月，中 国累计进口天然及合成橡胶增幅明显。需求方面，上周轮胎企 业开工率较上周均有下降，全钢胎、半钢胎延续累库累库。终 端车市方面， ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic chemical market is expected to face an oversupply in 2025, with prices of various chemical products hitting new lows in November, indicating a weak market driven primarily by macroeconomic factors rather than crude oil prices [1][8]. Market Trends - The chemical market experienced fluctuations from January to March, with a peak in January followed by a decline due to geopolitical tensions and tariff impacts, leading to a low opening after the Spring Festival [3][4]. - In the second quarter, the market was heavily influenced by U.S. tariffs and trade tensions, resulting in significant volatility, with a brief recovery in June due to positive trade negotiations [5]. - The third quarter saw a weak overall market, but a slight recovery was noted due to domestic supply-side reforms and the elimination of outdated production capacity [7]. - The fourth quarter continued to reflect weak demand against high supply, with a notable decline in prices across multiple chemical products, although a slight rebound was expected towards the end of December [8]. Price Movements - As of November 18, 2025, 116 out of 131 monitored chemical products had decreased in price since the beginning of the year, representing 89% of the total, while only 15 products saw price increases [8]. - The leading price increase was observed in the sulfur market, with a rise of 2,420 yuan/ton (+156.13%), while products like SEBS and butadiene experienced significant declines of -26.44% and -39.69%, respectively [9]. Profitability - Most chemical products are operating at marginal or negative profit margins, with many experiencing increased losses compared to the beginning of the year, indicating a challenging operational environment for chemical companies [8].