1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Palm oil: The domestic macro sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. The market is trading the de - stocking scenario in the second half of the year. Malaysia is expected to continue the inventory accumulation trend in July, but it is conservatively estimated not to exceed 2.2 million tons. The B50 rumor in Indonesia has a low correlation with the price increase. The international oil market may see a systematic upward trend due to reduced export supply, and palm oil is sensitive to this. The bean - palm spread is unlikely to return to par this year, and opportunities to go long on palm oil at low levels should be continuously monitored [2][3]. - Soybean oil: The continuous good rainfall in the Midwest of the United States in mid - to - late July is beneficial for improving the yield per unit. Before the USDA August report, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations. The large number of domestic soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak situation, and if this trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic bean - palm spread closer to the international one [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Viewpoints and Logic - Palm oil: The domestic macro sentiment pushed palm oil to a three - year high, but the fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Without a strong supply theme, the high price needs strong downstream demand to support it. With weak demand from India, the price at the high level was difficult to rise further. The palm oil 09 contract fell 0.29% last week [1]. - Soybean oil: A large number of domestic soybean oil export orders ignited the trading enthusiasm. The bean - palm spread narrowed significantly, and soybean oil showed signs of a catch - up rise. The soybean oil 09 contract rose 1.6% last week [1]. 3.2 This Week's Viewpoints and Logic 3.2.1 Palm oil - Fundamental analysis: After the slight increase in inventory in the MPOB June report, the negative impact was digested, and the price rebounded. It is estimated that the production in July will still be difficult to reach 1.8 million tons, and the export volume in the first 25 days was poor, estimated to be less than 1.4 million tons. The demand in the producing areas is expected to remain high, and Malaysia will continue the inventory accumulation trend, but not exceed 2.2 million tons. In Indonesia, the price of various palm oils is high, and the market is quite resistant to price drops. The B50 rumor has a low correlation with the price increase. The production recovery may fall short of expectations, and the inventory will remain below 3 million tons throughout the year. The US biodiesel policy will lead to a reduction in the supply of US soybean oil in the international market, which will drive up the international oil market, and palm oil may be affected [2]. - Market sentiment and trading opportunities: The market has different views on the palm oil production in Malaysia this year. If the production in July - August maintains a good yield per unit, there will be a large inventory accumulation pressure in August - September. If the inventory in Malaysia does not exceed 2.3 million tons, the market may have digested the high - point inventory. If the inventory accumulation in August - September exceeds expectations, palm oil may still have room for correction, but attention should be paid to the potential positive sentiment caused by lower - than - expected production in July - August [2][3]. - Sales area analysis: Except for sunflower oil, the import profit of crude palm oil is higher than that of crude soybean oil. The reconstruction of channel inventory is in progress. As long as the monthly import volume can be maintained above 800,000 tons, the inventory of Malaysian palm oil is difficult to exceed 2.3 million tons. The current fundamentals in the producing areas are not sufficient to stimulate China to open commercial profits, and the bean - palm spread is difficult to return to par [2]. 3.2.2 Soybean oil - International situation: Good rainfall in the Midwest of the United States in mid - to - late July is beneficial for improving the yield per unit. Before the USDA August report, CBOT soybeans will maintain a weak fluctuation if there is no more positive progress in Sino - US trade negotiations. Only positive news from Sino - US trade negotiations can drive up the price of US soybeans [4]. - Domestic situation: The large number of domestic soybean oil export orders has reversed the weak situation. Although the domestic apparent demand for pick - up is poor, oil mills are actively exporting. If this trend continues, it is expected to drive the domestic bean - palm spread closer to the international one. If the purchase of US soybeans for the October shipment has not been made, there is potential for the spread between months and the Brazilian premium to rise, and soybean oil may benefit [4]. 3.3 Disk Basic Market Data - Futures prices: The palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,910 yuan/ton, down 0.29%; the soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 8,274 yuan/ton, up 1.6%; the rapeseed oil main - continuous contract closed at 9,524 yuan/ton, up 0.71%; the Malaysian palm oil main - continuous contract closed at 4,245 ringgit/ton, down 0.72%; the CBOT soybean oil main - continuous contract closed at 53.90 cents/pound, down 3.61% [8]. - Trading volume and open interest: The trading volume of the palm oil main - continuous contract was 2,707,492 lots, a decrease of 767,521 lots; the open interest was 394,141 lots, a decrease of 62,307 lots. The trading volume of the soybean oil main - continuous contract was 3,475,013 lots, a decrease of 47,548 lots; the open interest was 499,756 lots, a decrease of 4,882 lots [8]. - Spreads: The rapeseed - soybean 09 spread was 1,250 yuan/ton, down 4.8%; the bean - palm 09 spread was 363 yuan/ton, up 19.7%. The palm oil 9 - 1 spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 350%; the soybean oil 9 - 1 spread was 48 yuan/ton, up 20%; the rapeseed oil 9 - 1 spread was 58 yuan/ton, up 3.57% [8]. - Warehouse receipts: The number of palm oil warehouse receipts was 570 lots, an increase of 570 lots; the number of soybean oil warehouse receipts was 3,000 lots, a decrease of 18,495 lots; the number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 3,487 lots, with no change [8]. 3.4 Oil Fundamental Information - Production and inventory: Malaysia's palm oil production is expected to recover in July, and the inventory is expected to continue to increase. Indonesia's inventory is expected to remain low after the second quarter, and the price difference between Indonesia and Malaysia remains high [10][13]. - Export and import: ITS estimates that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 were 1.289727 million tons, a 6.71% decrease compared to the same period last month. The EU's cumulative imports of palm oil in 2025 decreased by 330,000 tons, and the cumulative imports of four major oils decreased by 640,000 tons [13][15]. - Other indicators: The POGO spread rebounded significantly, the import profit of Indian palm oil started to improve, and the basis of palm oil (South China) for 09 was - 20, while the basis of soybean oil (Jiangsu) rebounded [11][13][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a significant shift, with a recommendation to moderately reduce positions due to anticipated volatility and risks [3][5]. - The market saw a decline in major indices, with the CSI 300 index down by 1.75%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.94%, and the CSI 500 index down by 1.37% [3]. - The fundamental factors affecting the market include unexpected challenges in the US-China economic relations and a slight decline in China's official PMI data, leading to a cautious outlook for the Chinese economy in the second half of the year [3][5]. Group 2 - Institutional caution is increasing, as indicated by weakening fund flow indicators, suggesting a potential continuation of market adjustments [4][5]. - The recent non-farm payroll data from the US has shown significant weakness over the past three months, reinforcing concerns about the US economic outlook [3][5]. - The recommendation for the main board is to reduce positions to a medium level in response to the market's changing signals, while the small-cap sector should also follow suit due to its high beta characteristics [7]. Group 3 - There is a notable correlation between the market's significant adjustment and the timing of a new product subscription window for a quantitative private equity fund, although the actual impact on the market was limited [8].

特朗普政府对华施压，剑指能源依赖 美国总统特朗普近期持续对华施压，其核心目标直指中国对俄罗斯和伊朗石油的依赖。 这一策略与正在进行的中美贸易谈判息息相关，并深刻影响着双方 关税缓冲期的未来。 最近结束的瑞典中美第三轮经贸会谈，虽然避免了全面破裂，但也未能达成实质性协议。 美国财长虽然表示会谈"非常好"，却并未签署任何协议，并称最 终决定权在特朗普手中。 此举意味着美国方面实际上空手而归，口头承诺的不可靠性凸显了中美关系的微妙和复杂。 国际社会的目光因此聚焦于特朗普接 下来的表态，延长关税缓冲期似乎成为唯一可行的方案，尤其是在特朗普有意访华的情况下。 然而，若放弃缓冲期，中美两国将不可避免地陷入一场"恶 战"，而这场危机的责任完全在于美国方面的步步紧逼。 特朗普政府近期在军事和经济领域对华施压不断升级，对中国的抹黑和污蔑言论更是层出不穷。 他公开要求中国停止购买俄罗斯和伊朗石油，其背后逻辑 显而易见：通过迫使中国大量购买美国石油，来缓解美国长期以来的贸易逆差。 这一策略的实施，依赖于美国石油价格普遍高于俄伊石油的事实，以及中 国庞大的能源需求。 特朗普试图以此控制中国的能源供应，进而获得更大的议价筹码。 瑞典会 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年8月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年 度产量2578.3万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口 273.1亿美元，同比下降0.1%。6月份我国棉花进口3万吨，同比减少82.1%；棉纱进口11万 吨，同比增加0.1%。农村部7月25/26年度：产量625万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存823万吨。中性。 6：预期：中美贸易谈判继续延后，关税暂时维持现状。郑棉主力即将换月01，近期下跌 09跌 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy**: Bean oil, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil [1] - **Neutral**: Soybean, Soybean meal, Rapeseed meal [1] - **Sell**: Live pigs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The overall commodity market in China is experiencing a decline, with anti - involution related varieties falling and market sentiment cooling. Attention should be paid to weather and policy guidance in the short term [2][4] - The Fed's July interest - rate meeting maintained the interest rate, and the third round of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations suspended the addition of tariffs. The weather in the US soybean - producing areas is good, and the soybean has a high excellent rate, which may lead to an early bumper harvest [3] - For soybean oil and palm oil, a strategy of buying on dips is maintained, and caution should be exercised regarding the short - term situation of strong oil and weak meal [4] - For eggs, if the egg price can complete capacity reduction through price decline in the second half of this year, there may be a cyclical reversal [9] Summary by Category Soybean - The main contract of domestic soybeans reduced positions and the price pulled back. The market sentiment cooled, and there were policies on two - way purchase and sale. Short - term attention should be paid to precipitation in the Northeast and the weather in the US Midwest [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The commodity market declined. The Fed maintained the interest rate, and Sino - US trade negotiations were the focus. The US soybean has a high excellent rate, and the domestic soybean meal inventory is gradually increasing. The market is expected to be volatile [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - Domestic soybean oil and palm oil reduced positions and adjusted. The US soybean oil is in a sideways shock, and the oil - meal ratio is at a historical high. A strategy of buying on dips is maintained [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed - related contracts fell, and the main contract positions declined slightly. Rapeseed meal pulled back 1.3% today. Short - term strategy is to wait and see [6] Corn - The corn futures continued to be weak in a shock. There were corn auctions, and the US corn has a high excellent rate. The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The live pig futures fell sharply. The supply is sufficient in the medium - term, and the probability of a decline after the peak is high. It is recommended for the industry to hedge on rallies [8] Eggs - The egg futures fell, and the off - season contracts broke through the support level. If the egg price can reduce capacity in the second half of the year, there may be a cyclical reversal next year [9]

Group 1: PMI Trends - July manufacturing PMI decreased to 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value, indicating a contraction for the fourth consecutive month[2] - Non-manufacturing PMI fell to 50.1%, a decline of 0.4 percentage points, with service and construction sectors dropping by 0.1 and 2.2 percentage points respectively[2] - Composite PMI output index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.2%, suggesting a slowdown in overall economic expansion[2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Signals - July PMI production index was 50.5%, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating continued expansion but with weakening demand[3] - New orders index fell by 0.8 percentage points to 49.4%, entering contraction territory, with new export orders down by 0.6 percentage points[3] - New export orders index dropped to 47.1%, remaining in contraction, while import orders held steady at 47.8%[3] Group 3: Price and Employment Insights - Price indices rebounded, with raw material and factory price indices rising by 3.1 and 2.1 percentage points respectively, indicating a narrowing decline in PPI[4] - Employment pressure eased slightly, with manufacturing, service, and construction employment indices increasing by 0.1, 0.0, and 1.0 percentage points respectively[4] - Service sector PMI fell to 50.0%, while construction PMI dropped 2.2 percentage points to 50.6%, the second-lowest this year[6] Group 4: Economic Outlook - The July Politburo meeting indicated a focus on policy implementation, with potential new policies expected but not strong stimulus measures[6] - Economic pressures are anticipated to increase in the second half of the year, particularly in August and September, due to prior "export rush" effects and short-term contraction[6] - Continued monitoring of US-China trade negotiations is advised, as potential developments may impact market conditions[6]

即日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292 2025年7月30日 星期三 70015979 价格及基差 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 79025 | 79075 | -50.00 | -0.06% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 110 | વેર | +15.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 78910 | 78930 | -20.00 | -0.03% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | O | -10 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 78930 | 78985 | -55.00 | -0.07% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 15 | 5 | +10.00 | - | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 965 | aeo | +5.00 | 0.52% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -54.34 | -53.68 | -0.66 | - | ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-7-30 棉价回落，月差下行 油脂：市场情绪企稳，油脂或震荡偏强 蛋⽩粕：优良率高于预期，美豆1000美分附近运行 ⽟⽶/淀粉：现货整体稳定，等待新的指引 ⽣猪：库存仍在，期现承压 橡㬵：等待宏观指引，胶价横盘震荡 合成橡㬵：盘面继续跟随变动 纸浆：反内卷交易仍可能重来，回落过程关注套利对冲 棉花：棉价回落，月差下行 ⽩糖：糖价震荡，进口压力压制上方空间 原⽊：基本面变化有限，短期受宏观预期主导 【异动品种】 棉花观点：棉价回落，⽉差下⾏ 逻辑：产量方面，25/26年度，国内外棉市预计供应依旧宽松，中国预计 增产，目前天气端无明显异动。需求方面，当前处于下游需求淡季，企业 开机率延续下滑，成品小幅累库，花纱利润不佳，关注需求端的负反馈传 导。库存方面，棉花去库速度虽然因为进入淡季而环比放缓，但较往年 同期来看依旧较快，导致棉花商业库存处于同期低位，滑准税配额增发 消息未落地，新花上市前供应偏紧的格局难改。总体来看，上周起， 主力合约减仓下行，随着做多资金获利了结平仓，尽管短期供需偏紧格 局未改，但主力合约继续炒作动力减弱，月 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 特朗普就俄乌冲突对普京施压，IMF 上调全球经济增速，油价反弹。宏观 | | | | 及地缘带来利好，短期提振油价；从供需基本面看，油价进入旺季下半程， | | 原油 | 反弹加空 | 随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，油价供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大， | | | | 当前供给端重要变量集中在美国产能变化。策略：卖出 10 合约同时买入 | | | | 看涨期权对冲风险。SC【520-535】 | | LPG | 谨慎看多 | 油价企稳反弹，自身基本面尚可，液化气反弹。成本端原油反弹，但中长 | | | | 期仍有压缩空间；基差处于高位，估值偏低；下游化工需求回升，PDH 开 | | | | 工率升至 73.13%；供给和库存中性偏多，国内商品量小幅下降，港口库 | | | | 存有所下降。策略：卖出看跌期权。PG【4000-4100】 | | L | 谨慎看多 | 原油上涨，中美贸易谈判结束。社会库存连续 5 周累库，基本面承压。塑 | | | | 料煤制占比 20%，老旧产能占比 14%，多数产能已 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy and chemical commodities, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, synthetic rubber, asphalt, etc., and gives corresponding trading suggestions and trend judgments based on the fundamentals and market conditions of each commodity [2][9]. - Some commodities are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and policy expectations, showing trends of short - term shock, strength, or weakness [9][11][61]. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Cost - end strengthened due to rising crude oil prices. Suggest to go long on PX and short on PTA01 contracts, and short PXN on rallies. Supply decreased marginally with a 210,000 - ton restart and a 400,000 - ton device shutdown, and demand decreased marginally as a 7.2 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load [5][9]. - **PTA**: Pay attention to going long on PX and short on PTA for the 01 contract. Consider 9 - 1 month - spread positive arbitrage as the inventory accumulation in August weakens. The current PTA processing fee is at a relatively low level, and attention should be paid to the compression of the PTA processing fee position under high valuation [9][10]. - **MEG**: Conduct basis positive arbitrage and month - spread reverse arbitrage. Pay attention to the supply pressure brought by non - mainstream warehouse receipts. The port inventory is falling, and the import volume is expected to increase in September. Some ethylene oxide devices may be converted to produce ethylene glycol [11]. Rubber - Rubber is expected to oscillate. Trading volume and open interest decreased, and the difference between the spot and futures prices and the month - spread showed certain changes. The inventory in Qingdao increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate of tire companies changed [12][13][15]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate in the short term. The prices of futures and spot markets decreased, and the basis and month - spread also changed. The inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises increased slightly, and the short - term fundamentals are relatively neutral [16][17][18]. Asphalt - Asphalt is slightly stronger due to the sharp rise in crude oil prices. The trading volume and open interest of futures decreased, and the inventory of refineries and social warehouses decreased [19][32]. LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term. The market price fluctuates, and the cost is supported by the rise in crude oil prices. However, the supply pressure will gradually increase in the third quarter, and the demand support is not strong [33][34]. PP - PP's spot price rose slightly, and the transaction improved. The futures price increased slightly, and the market was mainly in narrow - range adjustment. The downstream demand was mainly for on - demand procurement [37][38]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda should pay attention to the delivery pressure. It is currently in the off - season of demand, with insufficient price - increase power but strong cost support. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on the supply of caustic soda and the impact of 08 - contract warehouse receipts on the market [40][41]. Pulp - Pulp is expected to oscillate. The supply - side pressure is high, and the demand - side is weak. The price of the living paper market is in a flat consolidation, and attention should be paid to the shipment of paper enterprises and the recovery of downstream demand [44][47][49]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The futures price decreased, and the production and sales of float glass factories weakened. The price of the spot market fluctuated, with some regions falling and some rising [50][51]. Methanol - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term. The futures price increased, and the spot price index decreased. The traditional downstream demand is weak, but the phased external procurement of olefins provides support. The mid - term is also expected to oscillate due to policy and supply factors [54][56]. Urea - Urea is expected to oscillate in the short term as the commodity index rebounds. The futures price increased slightly, and the inventory of urea enterprises decreased. The mid - term is also expected to oscillate due to policy and potential export support [59][61]. Styrene - Styrene's profit is being compressed. It is in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, and is mainly used as a short - position allocation. The port inventory is in an accelerated accumulation phase, and attention should be paid to the position of compressing styrene profit [62][63]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The futures price decreased, and the price of the spot market was adjusted in an oscillatory manner. The production of enterprises was relatively stable, and the downstream demand was mainly for on - demand procurement at low prices [64]. PVC - PVC is still affected by anti - involution sentiment in the short term. The spot market transaction is light, and the price oscillates downward. The industry profit has expanded significantly, but the high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to alleviate [67][68]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil's night - session price increased, and its short - term strength continues. Low - sulfur fuel oil continues to strengthen, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to widen [71]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Hold 10 - contract short positions and consider reducing positions and taking profits for the 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage. The futures price of the European line oscillated weakly, and the spot freight rate showed certain changes [73][80].