近日，公募基金二季报开始披露。 7月6日，国元证券发布旗下国元元赢六个月资管计划2025年第二季度报告；7月7日，汇安基金旗下汇安 永福90天中短债披露二季度报告。 从基金经理二季度的运作思路来看，有基金经理指出，随着权益市场回暖，风险偏好在缓慢回升，部分 债券投资的策略转向了持券获取票息收益。不过，若下半年流动性继续宽裕，债市仍有可能延续强势。 基金经理提高企业债配置比重 从上述两只债券基金的运作来看，基金经理都对企业债有不同程度的加仓。 二季报显示，汇安永福90天中短债A份额、C份额在二季度的净值增长率分别为0.96%和0.91%；国元元 赢六个月资管计划二季度的净值增长率为0.79%。 记者注意到，基金经理仍看好未来的债市表现。国元元赢六个月资管计划的基金经理在季报总结中就表 示，下半年如果流动性继续宽裕，再加上财政政策货币政策的支持，债市可能延续强势。 二季度债基频现大额赎回 事实上，今年二季度，债市走得比较"纠结"。一方面，缺乏此前持续的债牛行情；另一方面，其他类型 债券资产的配置风险较高，使得许多债基基金经理面临配置难的尴尬。不仅如此，许多基金在二季度出 现了大额赎回的情形。 值得关注的是，从基金 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of capturing equity-driven market trends, particularly focusing on the financial and technology sectors as key areas for investment [4][7]. - The current bullish market sentiment is driven by improved public confidence stemming from enhanced grassroots governance capabilities, which has positively influenced market emotions and risk appetite [4][7]. - The convertible bond market's fundamental logic remains unchanged, with a long-term perspective supporting the investment rationale for convertible bonds, particularly those with strong credit quality and low volatility [4][12]. Group 2 - The report notes that from June 30 to July 6, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.40%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.25%, indicating a strong correlation between the stock market and convertible bonds [9]. - The trading volume of convertible bonds significantly increased to 647.66 billion, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 1.21% and the parity center increasing by 2.6% to 100.6 yuan [12]. - The report highlights that high-rated, large-cap, and low-priced convertible bonds performed well, while small-cap and high-priced bonds showed relative weakness [12].

截至2025年7月8日 09:30，公司债ETF(511030)多空胶着，最新报价106.27元。拉长时间看，截至2025年7月7日，公司债ETF今年以来累计上涨1.11%。 规模方面，公司债ETF最新规模达220.27亿元，创近1年新高。 从资金净流入方面来看，公司债ETF近4天获得连续资金净流入，最高单日获得1.27亿元净流入，合计"吸金"1.71亿元，日均净流入达4275.21万元。 截至2025年7月8日 09:30，国债ETF5至10年(511020)多空胶着，最新报价117.72元。拉长时间看，截至2025年7月7日，国债ETF5至10年近1年累计上涨 5.43%。截至7月7日，国债ETF5至10年近5年净值上涨21.84%。 规模方面，国债ETF5至10年最新规模达14.98亿元，创近3月新高。 截至2025年7月8日 09:30，国开债券ETF(159651)上涨0.03%，最新价报106.31元。拉长时间看，截至7月7日，国开债券ETF近2年净值上涨4.66%。 机构指出，周一国内股债都出现明显缩量，过去一个月，债市机构几乎找不出实质性利空，基金久期越来越高处于历史高位，卖方报告和路演一致性 ...

利率 - 反内卷对债市的两条影响路径 20250707 摘要 当前利率已走低，未来走向取决于 6 月经济数据，如通胀、社融和出口。 若数据不佳，央行可能进一步宽松，利好债市，类似于 2015-2016 年 供给侧改革初期。 反内卷通过约束产能推升商品价格，类似供给侧改革，但可能因企业退 出导致就业和收入下降，对需求产生负面影响。缺乏需求侧支持的反内 卷对债市偏利多。 历史经验表明，无需求侧配合的通胀难以持续。若仅因供给侧冲击导致 短期通胀，央行或维持宽松。2015 年供给侧改革期间，利率整体下行， 表明通胀压力可控。 螺纹钢价格通常领先于 PPI 和利率。2015 年底螺纹钢率先上涨，PPI 随 后见底，利率在 2016 年 1 月触底后反弹，受大宗商品价格、供给侧改 革和经济数据改善等多重因素影响。 2021 年大宗商品上涨不仅因输入性通胀，更受煤炭行业政策影响，如 《刑法修正案（十一）》禁止超产及安全检查等，导致煤炭供应收紧， 需求良好也助推价格上涨。 Q&A 螺纹钢价格从 2015 年 12 月初开始回升，而利率则一直下降到 2016 年 1 月 13 日。PPI 在 2015 年 12 月份见底。因此 ...

利率 - 反内卷对债市的两条影响路径 20250707 摘要 当前利率已走低，未来走向取决于 6 月经济数据，如通胀、社融和出口。 若数据不佳，央行可能进一步宽松，利好债市，类似于 2015-2016 年 供给侧改革初期。 反内卷通过约束产能推升商品价格，类似供给侧改革，但可能因企业退 出导致就业和收入下降，对需求产生负面影响。缺乏需求侧支持的反内 卷对债市偏利多。 历史经验表明，无需求侧配合的通胀难以持续。若仅因供给侧冲击导致 短期通胀，央行或维持宽松。2015 年供给侧改革期间，利率整体下行， 表明通胀压力可控。 螺纹钢价格通常领先于 PPI 和利率。2015 年底螺纹钢率先上涨，PPI 随 后见底，利率在 2016 年 1 月触底后反弹，受大宗商品价格、供给侧改 革和经济数据改善等多重因素影响。 2021 年大宗商品上涨不仅因输入性通胀，更受煤炭行业政策影响，如 《刑法修正案（十一）》禁止超产及安全检查等，导致煤炭供应收紧， 需求良好也助推价格上涨。 Q&A 反内卷对债券市场的影响如何？ 反内卷对债券市场的影响相对较小。尽管权益市场因反内卷而表现火热，但债 券市场并未受到显著影响。当前，债市关注的主要是 ...

资金面充盈宽松；债市收益率走势有所分化，中短端延续下行，长端小幅上行 【内容摘要】7 月 4 日，资金面充盈宽松，主要回购利率继续下行；银行间主要利率债走势有 所分化，中短端延续下行，长端小幅上行；转债市场跟随权益市场有所分化，转债个券多数下 跌；主要欧洲经济体 10 年期国债收益率走势分化。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【财政部部长蓝佛安出席 2025 年金砖国家财长和央行行长会议】 2025 年金砖国家财长和央 行行长会议 7 月 5 日在巴西里约热内卢举行，财政部部长蓝佛安出席会议并发言。蓝佛安表 示，中方愿同各方共同深化金砖财金合作，积极推进可持续发展进程，为实现更加"强劲、绿 色、健康"的全球发展提供助力。中方愿同各方一道支持金砖国家新开发银行运营发展，开启 新开行高质量发展的第二个"金色十年"，助力全球南方国家走好现代化道路。另据消息，金 砖国家新开发银行宣布，批准哥伦比亚和乌兹别克斯坦成为该银行正式成员。 【新版人民币跨境支付系统业务规则公开征求意见】7 月 4 日，央行发布关于《人民币跨境支 付系统业务规则（征求意见稿）》公开征求意见的通知。《业务规则》明确规定了 CIPS 参与 者的账户管 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The potential negative factors for the current bond market come from the fundamentals, including economic data disclosure and the progress of Sino-US negotiations. Under the consensus expectation, it is difficult to say that the bond market will reverse. Attention should be paid to the changes in bond market expectations caused by event shocks [2]. - The sentiment index of fixed-income sellers has reached a new high this year, while buyers mainly expect the market to fluctuate, and their sentiment has declined for three consecutive weeks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Seller and Buyer Markets 1.1 Seller Market Sentiment Index and Interest Rate Bonds - This week, the weighted tracking index was 0.47, showing a mostly bullish view but lower than last week. The unweighted tracking index was 0.68, up 0.09 from last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral-to-bullish view, with 18 bullish, 6 neutral, and 1 bearish [10]. - 72% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as weak credit, slow economic recovery, external demand shocks, loose monetary policy, low supply pressure in July, and opportunities for a bullish flattening of the curve after the short end declines [4][10]. - 24% of institutions are neutral, with keywords such as the neutral impact of restarting treasury bonds, and potential disturbances from the stock-bond seesaw and unexpected Sino-US negotiations [4][10]. - 4% of institutions are bearish, with the view that the central bank's bond purchases are not the reason for the decline in interest rates, and the economic recovery in the second half of 2025 is expected to drive up prices and interest rates [4][10]. 1.2 Buyer Market Sentiment Index and Interest Rate Bonds - This week, the tracking sentiment index was 0.13, showing a mostly neutral view and lower than last week. Currently, institutions generally hold a neutral-to-bullish view, with 5 bullish and 18 neutral [11]. - 22% of institutions are bullish, with keywords such as loose funds and a possible quarter-on-quarter weakening of the economic fundamentals in the third quarter [11]. - 78% of institutions are neutral, with keywords such as the reduced expectation of broad credit after the second-quarter monetary policy meeting and the suppression of bond market sentiment by the equity market [11]. 1.3 Credit Bonds - Market hot topics include the recovery of wealth management scale and loose funds. The recovery of wealth management scale may further improve the demand for credit bonds, and loose funds, combined with weak fundamentals, support the overall strength of the bond market and a decline in benchmark interest rates [17]. 1.4 Convertible Bonds - This week, institutions generally hold a neutral-to-bullish view, with 8 bullish and 6 neutral [18]. - 57% of institutions are bullish, believing that with the new bond supply not accelerating significantly on the issuance side, the convertible bond market scale may gradually shrink in the second half of the year, and medium and large-cap convertible bonds among high-quality existing and newly issued bonds are worth attention [18]. - 43% of institutions are neutral, stating that there is still uncertainty about the US tariff increase, and the allocation value of convertible bonds will be better reflected after the valuation is moderately digested [18]. 2. Treasury Bond Futures Tracking 2.1 Futures Trading - Futures prices showed mixed trends. As of July 4, the prices of TS/TF/T/TL treasury bond contracts were 102.51 yuan, 106.26 yuan, 109.10 yuan, and 121.20 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.03 yuan, -0.01 yuan, +0.05 yuan, and +0.31 yuan compared to last Friday [21]. - The trading volume of treasury bond futures generally increased. As of July 4, from a 5MA perspective, the trading volumes of TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts were 640 billion yuan, 622 billion yuan, 766 billion yuan, and 988 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +3.04 billion yuan, +30.63 billion yuan, +77.98 billion yuan, and -19.99 billion yuan compared to last Friday [21]. - The trading-to-holding ratio of treasury bond futures generally increased. As of July 4, from a 5MA perspective, the trading-to-holding ratios of TS/TF/T/TL futures contracts were 0.27, 0.40, 0.38, and 0.85 respectively, with changes of +0.01, +0.03, +0.04, and -0.03 compared to last Friday [22]. 2.2 Spot Bond Trading - The turnover rate of 30-year treasury bonds decreased. On July 4, the turnover rate was 4.03%, down 3.90 percentage points from last week and up 0.61 percentage points from Monday, with an average weekly turnover rate of 4.21%. The weekly average turnover rate of interest rate bonds decreased, and the turnover rate on July 4 was 0.93%, down 0.09 percentage points from last week and up 0.28 percentage points from Monday [29]. - The turnover rate of 10-year China Development Bank bonds increased. On July 4, the turnover rate was 4.91%, up 0.45 percentage points from last week and up 1.60 percentage points from Monday [32]. 2.3 Basis Trading - The basis generally narrowed, while the net basis widened across the board. As of July 4, the basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were -0.02 yuan, 0.001 yuan, 0.14 yuan, and 0.25 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.05 yuan, +0.05 yuan, +0.16 yuan, and -0.07 yuan compared to last Friday [39]. - In terms of the net basis, the net basis of main contracts widened. As of July 4, the net basis (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were -0.05 yuan, -0.06 yuan, -0.11 yuan, and -0.11 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.01 yuan, -0.01 yuan, -0.07 yuan, and -0.12 yuan compared to last Friday [41]. - In terms of IRR, the IRR of T and TL main contracts increased, while the others decreased. As of July 4, the IRR (CTD) of TS/TF/T/TL main contracts were 1.65%, 1.69%, 1.89%, and 1.80% respectively, with changes of -0.20%, -0.23%, +0.03%, and +0.14% compared to last Friday [41]. 2.4 Inter-period and Inter-variety Spreads - Inter-period spreads showed mixed trends. As of July 4, the spreads between the near and far months of TS/TF/T/TL contracts were -0.12 yuan, -0.08 yuan, -0.08 yuan, and 0.13 yuan respectively, with changes of +0.01 yuan, -0.005 yuan, -0.07 yuan, and -0.01 yuan compared to last Friday [48]. - Inter-variety spreads of main futures contracts all narrowed. As of July 4, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 4*TS - T, and 3*T - TL were 98.77 yuan, 103.39 yuan, 300.92 yuan, and 206.13 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.06 yuan, -0.07 yuan, -0.19 yuan, and -0.14 yuan compared to last Friday [48].

东方金诚 研究发展部 分析师 瞿瑞 部门执行总监 冯琳 时间 债市偏暖震荡，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化 ——利率债周报（2025.6.30-2025.7.6） 作者 2025 年 7 月 7 日 核心观点 ⚫ 上周债市偏暖震荡，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化。上周（6 月 30 日当周），尽管货币政策委员会二季度例会公告删除择机降息 降准表述、股债跷跷板效应等对债市造成一定利空扰动，但在 跨季后资金面超预期宽松以及国债发行缩量支撑下，债市呈现 偏暖震荡格局，长债收益率整体小幅下行。短端利率方面，月 初资金面宽松推动机构"卷利差"交易，带动债市短端利率继 续下行，收益率曲线进一步陡峭化。 本周（7 月 7 日当周）债市料延续震荡行情。从基本面来看， 本周即将公布 6 月通胀数据，受中上旬国际原油价格冲高影响， 预计 6 月通胀数据将边际改善，但仍将处于低位运行区间，对 债市的利空影响料将有限。从资金面来看，尽管央行连续大额 净回笼，但月初资金面超预期宽松，带动资金利率创下新低。 若本周资金面延续宽松，短债利率有望进一步下行。整体上看， 预计本周债市长端利率将延续震荡行情，且在市场交易依然拥 挤背景下，波动或将加剧，短端利率 ...

Market Overview - The bond market experienced fluctuations and an upward trend during the week of June 30 to July 4, 2025, with the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) rising by 0.17% and the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) increasing by 0.14% [2][12] - Short-term interest rates showed strong performance, with key yield spreads widening, while credit bond yields generally declined, leading to a narrowing of credit spreads [2][12] - The liquidity in the market improved post-quarter, supporting the bond market's strength, and the demand for coupon assets returned to stability [2][12][13] US Market Dynamics - Strong US non-farm payroll data reduced expectations for interest rate cuts, leading to an upward trend in US Treasury yields [14] - The Federal Reserve's cautious stance and the unexpected strength in employment data contributed to a shift in market sentiment regarding future monetary policy [14] REITs Market Activity - The REITs secondary market saw fluctuations but ultimately rose, with the CSI REITs Total Return Index increasing by 0.66% [15] - Despite some adjustments in the market, the overall trading activity remained robust, indicating a healthy development trend [15] Public Fund Market Developments - The first batch of 10 Sci-Tech Innovation Bond ETFs received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission on July 2, 2025, which is expected to provide new credit base options for investors amid a low-interest-rate environment [16][17] Fund Performance Tracking - Short-term bond funds rose by 0.08% last week, with a cumulative return of 4.02% since inception [3] - Medium to long-term bond funds increased by 0.19%, achieving a cumulative return of 6.69% since inception [4] - Low-volatility fixed income plus funds rose by 0.31%, with a cumulative return of 2.79% since inception [5] - Medium-volatility fixed income plus funds increased by 0.54%, with a cumulative return of 2.33% since inception [6] - High-volatility fixed income plus funds rose by 0.40%, achieving a cumulative return of 3.40% since inception [7] - Convertible bond funds increased by 0.74%, with a cumulative return of 10.79% since inception [8] - QDII bond funds decreased by 0.08%, with a cumulative return of 7.87% since inception [9] - REITs funds rose by 1.00%, achieving a cumulative return of 40.41% since inception [10]

智通财经7月7日讯（编辑 刘晨）债市缺乏交易驱动因素，但没有明确利空，所以依旧极窄幅震荡。今日，10年国债收益率小幅下行 0.2bp，国债期货收盘多数下跌。具体来看： 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.04%报121.150元，10年期主力合约持平于109.105元，5年期主力合约跌0.02%报106.225元，2 年期主力合约跌0.01%报102.502元。 银行间主要利率债收益率窄幅震荡，截至下午16:30，10年期国债活跃券250011收益率下行0.2bp报1.639%，30年期国债活跃券2500002收益 率持平1.8515%，10年期国开活跃券250210收益率下行0.25bp报1.715%。 | | 1Y | 2Y | | 3Y | | 54 | 7Y | | 10Y | 超长债 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债 | 1.3400 | 0.40 18 | 1.3500 0.25 1.3775 0.15 1.4700 0.15 1.5675 0.00 118 ...