Open Market Operations - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on December 22, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 67.3 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, 130.9 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 63.6 billion yuan [1] Funding Conditions - The interbank market remains in a loose funding condition, with the weighted average interest rate of DR001 slightly decreasing to around 1.27% [3] - Overnight rates on the anonymous click (X-repo) system remained stable at 1.25%, indicating ample supply [3] - Non-bank institutions quoted 14-day funding rates around 1.7%, with both borrowing and lending parties showing a relaxed attitude [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. is 3.66% [3] Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Government Bond Futures - The closing prices for government bond futures on December 22 showed declines: 30-year main contract down 0.28%, 10-year down 0.09%, 5-year down 0.06%, and 2-year down 0.02% [12] Loan Market Rate - The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remained stable on December 22, with the one-year LPR at 3.0% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, unchanged from the previous rates [13] Central Bank Bills - The central bank issued 40 billion yuan of 6-month central bank bills in Hong Kong, with a winning rate of 1.67% [14] Bond Market Activity - In November, institutions increased their bond allocations amid market volatility, with banks adding over 600 billion yuan in various bonds, and large banks purchasing over 300 billion yuan in short-term government bonds in December [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market continued to recover last week, with yields on various tenors generally declining. The bullish sentiment in the bond market has rebounded, but the space for further capital gains may be limited. A neutral and oscillatory mindset is advisable [3]. - The yields of money market funds have been continuously declining, and multiple money market funds have imposed purchase restrictions [4][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Pan-fixed-income Market Review and Observation 3.1.1. Bond Market Performance - Last week (December 15 - December 19, 2025), the 1-year, 10-year, and 30-year Treasury yields decreased by 3.32BP, 0.88BP, and 2.35BP to 1.35%, 1.83%, and 2.23% respectively. The bullish sentiment in the bond market has recovered [3]. - US Treasury yields declined across the board last week. The 1-year, 2-year, and 10-year US Treasury yields decreased by 3BP, 4BP, and 3BP to 3.51%, 3.48%, and 4.16% respectively [12]. 3.1.2. REITs Market Performance - Last week, the CSI REITs Total Return Index fell 2.85% to 999.19 points. The highway and rental housing sectors led the decline. In the primary market, 4 new public REITs made progress last week [12]. 3.2. Public Fund Market Dynamics - The yields of money market funds have been continuously declining. As of December 16, the median seven-day annualized yield of money market funds was 1.24%, and over a hundred funds had a yield of less than 1%. Multiple funds have announced short-term purchase restrictions [4][13]. 3.3. Pan-fixed-income Fund Index Performance Tracking 3.3.1. Overall Performance | Index Classification | Weekly Return | Cumulative Return Since Inception | | --- | --- | --- | | Money Enhancement Index | 0.03% | 4.43% | | Short-term Bond Fund Selection | 0.04% | 4.57% | | Medium- and Long-term Bond Fund Selection | 0.08% | 6.77% | | Low-volatility Fixed-income + Fund Selection | 0.22% | 4.49% | | Medium-volatility Fixed-income + Fund Selection | 0.12% | 6.25% | | High-volatility Fixed-income + Fund Selection | 0.13% | 8.00% | | Convertible Bond Fund Selection | 0.01% | 22.42% | | QDII Bond Fund Selection | 0.05% | 10.05% | | REITs Fund Selection | -2.22% | 29.35% | [6] 3.3.2. Index Positioning - **Money Enhancement Strategy Index**: Aims for liquidity management, targeting a curve that outperforms money market funds. It mainly invests in money market funds and interbank certificate of deposit index funds. The performance benchmark is the CSI Money Market Fund Index [15]. - **Short-term Bond Fund Selection Index**: Focuses on liquidity management, aiming for a smooth curve with controlled drawdowns. It selects 5 funds with stable long-term returns, strict drawdown control, and significant absolute return capabilities. The performance benchmark is 50% * Short-term Pure Bond Fund Index + 50% * General Money Market Fund Index [18]. - **Medium- and Long-term Bond Fund Selection Index**: Seeks stable returns by investing in medium- and long-term pure bond funds. It aims for excess returns relative to the medium- and long-term bond fund index and a steady upward net value curve. It adjusts the duration and the ratio of credit bond funds to interest rate bond funds according to market conditions [20]. - **Low-volatility Fixed-income + Selection Index**: The equity center is set at 10%. It selects 10 fixed-income + funds with an equity position of less than 15% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 10% * CSI 800 Index + 90% * ChinaBond New Composite Full Price Index [22]. - **Medium-volatility Fixed-income + Selection Index**: The equity center is set at 20%. It selects 5 fixed-income + funds with an equity position between 15% - 25% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 20% * CSI 800 Index + 80% * ChinaBond New Composite Full Price Index [26]. - **High-volatility Fixed-income + Selection Index**: The equity center is set at 30%. It selects 5 fixed-income + funds with an equity position between 25% - 35% in the past three years and recently. The performance benchmark is 30% * CSI 800 Index + 70% * ChinaBond New Composite Full Price Index [27]. - **Convertible Bond Fund Selection Index**: Selects 5 bond funds with a high proportion of convertible bond investments. It constructs an evaluation system from multiple dimensions to select the best funds [31]. - **QDII Bond Fund Selection Index**: The underlying assets are overseas bonds. It selects 6 funds with stable returns and good risk control [34]. - **REITs Fund Selection Index**: The underlying assets are high-quality infrastructure projects. It selects 10 funds with stable operations, reasonable valuations, and certain elasticity [35].

机构人士指出，在经历30年利率二次冲高回落后，又叠加货币宽松预期，市场对于债市的悲观情绪有所缓解，预计短时间30年利率再度明显上行的动能减 弱，但考虑明年超长债供给压力和名义增速回升的逻辑依然存在，故30-10Y利差很难明显压缩，预计会保持在35-45BP左右波动。后续观察投资者对于经济 开门红和权益春季躁动的交易情况，如果这两个因素影响明显，预计长债在明年1月还会小幅上行，10年国债利率有可能上行至1.9%及以上；反之，长端利 率可能会维持震荡走势，等待宽松预期真正升温。 存单方面，考虑存单曲线较为平坦，首先更建议关注6M左右子弹型位置。另外如果存在组合久期约束，可以再考虑具有骑乘价值的3M期限；而如果组合久 期不存在约束，则基于调整空间不大的预期，也可以直接持有1Y期限。 考虑当前资金利率始终处于较低水平，中短端信用和中端国开的票息价值均较高，且明年年初理财可能对短端信用、银行可能对中端国开的偏好加强。建议 重点关注2年普信、4年二永、5年国开。并关注现券与期货的对冲价值。 回撤方面，截至2025年12月19日，国债ETF5至10年近半年最大回撤1.09%，相对基准回撤0.58%。 截至2025年12月1 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market and its dynamics in the context of the broader economic environment in China for 2025 and expectations for 2026 [1][5][6]. Economic Data and Market Impact - Economic data for the second half of 2025 shows a decline, with nominal GDP growth dropping to 3.7% in Q3 from 4.6% in Q1. Retail sales growth in November was only 1.3%, the lowest of the year, and investment growth was negative at -2.6%, with real estate investment down 16% [1][3][4]. - The central bank has maintained a strong policy stance without lowering interest rates, which has influenced the bond market's rhythm. Fiscal spending growth is also negative, indicating a continuation of the current policy environment into 2026 [5][6]. Bond Market Performance - The bond market in 2025 has shown a volatile trend, with short to medium-term bonds performing better than long-term bonds. The 30-year government bonds have been particularly weak, reflecting a bear market [2][3]. - The yield on 30-year government bonds is expected to drop below 2%, with current yields being higher than historical averages due to changes in economic growth and interest rate environments [9][14]. Market Sentiment and Predictions - There is a general optimism for the stock market in 2026, contrasting with the bearish outlook from the previous year. However, discrepancies between expectations and actual market conditions need to be monitored [6][12]. - The bond market is expected to experience a slight upward trend, with limited decreases in interest rates anticipated [6][16]. Institutional Behavior and Strategies - Significant selling pressure from institutional investors has been noted, with net selling of long-term bonds exceeding 170 billion RMB, impacting the yields on 30-year government bonds [11]. - Investment strategies have shifted, with many institutions adopting a barbell strategy, holding both short-term and long-term bonds to mitigate risks [2][13]. Key Factors to Monitor - Future interest rate adjustments by the central bank, particularly the potential for a rate cut in March 2026, will be crucial for the bond market [12]. - The impact of regulatory changes on the insurance sector, particularly regarding asset-liability management, is expected to be positive for long-term bonds [18]. Conclusion - The bond market is currently influenced by a combination of weak economic data, institutional selling, and a cautious outlook on interest rates. Investors are advised to remain flexible and consider short-term trading opportunities while monitoring macroeconomic indicators and policy changes [14][16].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The bond market has shown a weak performance recently, with mixed net value changes across various fixed-income products. Short-term products have outperformed, while long-term products have faced declines. The overall sentiment in the bond market is expected to remain weak in the short term, with potential for increased volatility [2][3]. Group 1: Fixed Income Product Performance - In the past month, the sentiment in the bond market has weakened, leading to mixed performance in product net values. High-grade interbank certificates of deposit (CDs) yielded 0.13%, cash management products at 0.10%, and short-term bond funds at 0.05%, while medium to long-term bond funds and equity-linked bond funds saw negative returns of -0.09% and -0.69% respectively [3][9]. - The performance of various indices over the past month shows that short-term bond indices have achieved positive returns, while long-term indices have declined significantly [8][9]. Group 2: Market Review - The bond market has experienced a notable decline, with the yield curve steepening. Key factors influencing this include expectations of diminishing interest rate cuts, a high-risk appetite favoring equities, and increasing long-term bond supply against weakening demand [9][10]. - The liquidity in the market remains stable, with short-term funding rates slightly decreasing. The average rates for 3-month and 1-year AAA interbank CDs have risen marginally to 1.60% and 1.65% respectively [10][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - In the short term, the interbank CD rates are expected to remain stable, while government bond yields may fluctuate slightly, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to range between 1.7% and 2.0% [28][29]. - The bond market is anticipated to experience a weak and volatile phase, with the 10-year government bond yield likely to face upward pressure, although the extent of this increase is expected to be limited [28][29]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - For investors focused on liquidity management, it is recommended to maintain positions in cash-like products and consider increasing allocations to stable low-volatility financial products and short-term bond funds [34][35]. - Conservative investors are advised to hold onto short-term pure bond products, while those with a higher risk tolerance may consider long-term bond funds when yields rise to the upper range of their expected levels [36][37]. - For more advanced conservative investors, it is suggested to allocate to fixed-income plus products, which may include convertible bonds and equity assets, taking advantage of the anticipated strong correlation between stocks and bonds [37].

回撤方面，截至2025年12月18日，国债ETF5至10年近半年最大回撤1.09%，相对基准回撤0.58%。 机构认为近一个月券商自营净卖出超长利率债超过1千亿，止盈止损差不多了；债基净赎回力度也减弱 了。下半月债基冲量，规模可能略微好转，债市可能还能反弹些。明年初降仓位的券商自营可能重新进 场。昨日超长利率债二级交易：券商自营-8亿，债基+36亿，险资+90亿，中小型银行自营及年金等净卖 出。昨日险资净买入力度下降，险资对股市预期高，配置节奏偏均衡，收益率越上越买。11月美国CPI 同比降至2.7%，随着高关税带来的一次性影响基本体现，2026年美国降息幅度可能高于此前预期。将 进一步打开国内宽松空间。14天逆回购来到1.4%，跨年资金面无忧，债市加杠杆成本有望稳中趋降。 Q3股市大涨改变了非银机构预期，交易盘纷纷减仓及降久期，使得超长债与基本面阶段性脱钩，机构 大多觉得债券是弱势资产，大机会仍需等待。短期不看基本面，交易盘决定超长债行情节奏，配置盘决 定收益率上限。 截至2025年12月18日 15:00，中证5-10年期国债活跃券指数(净价)(H21018)上涨0.01%。国债ETF5至10年 (511 ...

【内容摘要】12月18日，资金面整体保持宽松；短债继续回暖，长债表现疲软；转债市场延续上行，转债个券多数上涨；各期限美债收益率普遍下行，主要 欧洲经济体10年期国债收益率普遍下行。 一、债市要闻 （一）国内要闻 【全岛正式封关，海南自贸港建设开启新篇章】12月18日，海南自由贸易港正式启动全岛封关。即日起，海南全岛8个对外开放口岸及10个"二线口岸"监管 设施悉数启用，标志着3万多平方公里的海南岛正式成为海关监管特殊区域，"'一线'放开、'二线'管住、岛内自由"的新篇章就此开启。"一线"放开，就是将 海南自贸港与我国关境外其他国家和地区之间作为"一线"，实施一系列自由便利进出举措；"二线"管住，就是将海南自贸港与内地之间作为"二线"，针 对"一线"放开的内容实施精准管理；岛内自由，就是在海南自贸港内，各类要素可以相对自由流通。 【央行12月22日将在香港招标发行6个月期400亿元人民币央票】据央行公告，12月22日央行将通过香港金融管理局债务工具中央结算系统（CMU）债券投 标平台，招标发行2025年第十期中央银行票据。第十期中央银行票据期限6个月（182天），为固定利率附息债券，到期还本付息，发行量为人民币 ...

值得关注的是，十年国债ETF成立以来经历了2018-2024年共计7个完整自然年度，均保持每年正收益， 有望成为穿越牛熊周期的资产配置利器。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 相关机构表示，随着30年国债接近房贷税后调整利率，其配置价值也逐渐凸显，但此轮风险提示我们， 不能再将超长债简单视为久期策略的利剑。在债市调整阶段，10年国债作为债市的压舱石，更加体现了 其稳健的特征。展望后市，经济"K"型结构短期无法得到缓解，仍是利好债市的环境，但悲观情绪尚未 完全释放，货币政策中性偏空，建议投资者缩短久期，观望进一步的入场信号。 十年国债ETF（511260）跟踪上证10年期国债指数，选取剩余期限7到10年且在上交所挂牌的国债作为 样本，久期恒定。从过往表现来看，十年国债ETF（511260）成立以来净值屡创新高，历史业绩持续稳 健。根据基金定期报告，截止三季度末，近1年回报率达4.17%，近3年回报率达14.04%，近5年回报率 达23.39%，成立至今累计回报率达35.77%。 ...

Group 1 - The bond market showed a slight rebound on December 17, with the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) rising by 0.11% and the 30-year government bond futures rebounding by 0.63%, approaching recovery from Monday's decline [1] - The weak performance of the bond market in Q4 was more pronounced than expected, with the 30-year government bond futures dropping nearly 4% since November, nearing last year's low after "924" [1] - The strong performance of the 30-year government bond before 2025 has led investors to overlook inherent risks, as the introduction of TL contracts and the central bank's bond trading in 2024 have compressed the 30-10 year yield spread to a historical low of 10 basis points [1] Group 2 - The 30-year government bond is approaching post-tax mortgage rates, highlighting its investment value, but current risks suggest that long-term bonds should not be viewed merely as a duration strategy [2] - During the bond market adjustment phase, the 10-year government bond serves as a stabilizing force, reflecting its robust characteristics [2] - The economic "K" structure is unlikely to ease in the short term, which remains favorable for the bond market, but pessimistic sentiment has not fully dissipated, leading to a neutral to bearish monetary policy [2]

银行间主要利率债收益率普遍下行，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行2.5BPs至2.254%，10年 期国开债"25国开15"收益率下行2.2BPs报1.91%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率下行0.95BPs报 1.843%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.94%，报483.16点，成交金额617.86亿元。嘉美转债、大中转债、环旭转债、 春23转债、华懋转债涨幅居前，分别涨20.00%、14.87%、10.00%、6.44%、6.11%。能辉转债、华安转 债、莱克转债、天箭转债、阳谷转债跌幅居前，分别跌6.21%、2.42%、1.40%、1.18%、1.02%。 【海外债市】 北美市场方面，美债收益率集体下跌，2年期美债收益率跌1.45BP报3.485%，3年期美债收益率跌 2.49BPs报3.528%，5年期美债收益率跌2.97BPs报3.695%，10年期美债收益率跌3.12BPs报4.143%，30年 期美债收益率跌3.15BPs报4.813%。 新华财经北京12月17日电（王菁）债市周三（12月17日）小幅走强、长端表现更优，国债期货全线收 涨，银行间现券收益率回落2BPs左右；公开 ...