Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump has confirmed that new tariffs will be implemented starting August 1, 2025, without any further extensions, which has raised concerns among trade partners [2][3] - Trump initially announced increased tariffs on over 50 trade partners on April 2, but temporarily reduced these rates to 10% for 90 days to allow for negotiations, which were set to expire this week [3] - The tariffs will impose significant rates on various countries, with Japan and South Korea facing 25%, South Africa 30%, and Laos and Myanmar 40% [3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market showed volatility, with major indices fluctuating near historical highs, indicating that traders were largely unfazed by the tariff notifications issued on Monday [5] - Market sentiment has shifted positively since April, with many traders believing that the worst phase of the trade war is over, as evidenced by the S&P 500 index nearing historical peaks [6] - A survey from the New York Federal Reserve indicated that consumer inflation expectations have returned to levels seen before the trade war began, with respondents expecting a 3% inflation rate one year from now [6][7]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 8 日 热点品种 原油： 伊朗微弱的报复行动及伊以实现全面停火，无疑将此前紧张的中东地缘风险急剧 降温，极大得缓解了市场对于原油的供给中断的担忧。目前仍需关注停火后中东 局势后续的发展，如双方是否会违反停火协议，伊朗核材料的处理，美国对伊朗 原油出口的制裁等。日前，伊朗驻联合国大使表示永远不会停止铀浓缩活动，内 塔尼亚胡称伊朗通过其核力量和导弹能力对以色列构成重大威胁，中东地缘风险 不能完全排除另外，特朗普表示中国可以继续从伊朗进口石油。基本面上，原油 进入季节性出行旺季，美国原油库存降至低位，只是最新的 EIA 报告显示美国原 油、汽油库存意外增加，加上周末 OPEC+同意在八月份将石油产量提高 54.8 万 桶/日。这超过此前市场预计的 41.1 万桶/日。不过，7 月 7 日，沙特阿美将旗 舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油 8 月对亚洲的官方售价上调至每桶较阿曼/迪拜均价高出 2.20 美元，较 7 月上涨 1 美元，超出市场预期的每桶上涨 50 至 ...

Group 1 - India has responded decisively to the U.S. tariffs on its auto parts and steel by imposing retaliatory tariffs worth $725 million on specific U.S. goods, citing violations of WTO rules [3] - The Indian government recognizes that its exports to the U.S. account for only about 18% of its total exports, providing a buffer against U.S. pressure [5] - India's domestic market strength is a crucial factor in its strategy, as it seeks to assert its independence and not be seen as an economic subordinate to the U.S. [5] Group 2 - Modi's government is strategically repositioning India on the global stage by actively participating in the BRICS summit, aiming to take on the role of a representative for the Global South [7] - At the BRICS summit, India supported reforms to the International Monetary Fund and challenged the dominance of the U.S. dollar, indicating a significant shift in its foreign policy [9] - The actions taken by India reflect a desire for a multipolar world and a rejection of being a pawn in the geopolitical game dominated by major powers [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: The weak retaliatory action by Iran and the full ceasefire between Iran and Israel have significantly reduced the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, alleviating concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East cannot be completely ruled out. Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, and U.S. crude oil inventories have dropped to a low level. But the latest EIA report shows an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, and OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. It is recommended to temporarily exit the previous short positions in crude oil [7][14]. - Bitumen: The bitumen开工率 has rebounded slightly, but the downstream demand is still affected by factors such as funds and weather. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, which puts pressure on the crude oil market sentiment. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread of bitumen at low prices [8][81]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price has been slightly reduced. The PVC开工率 has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is still large, and the real - estate market improvement still takes time. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate at a low level in the near future, and it is mainly recommended to go short at high prices [9][100]. - L&PP: The plastic and PP开工率 have declined to a moderately low level. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is still large. The U.S. government's cancellation of ethane - related restrictions is beneficial to the recovery of Sino - U.S. trade. It is expected that polyolefins will fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [10][126]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC's crude oil production increased in April and May 2025, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia. U.S. crude oil production decreased slightly in the week ending June 27, 2025, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased [20]. - Demand: According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased, but was lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased, while diesel weekly demand increased [36]. - Inventory: As of the week ending June 27, 2025, U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories increased unexpectedly, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreased [45]. - Geopolitical Risks: The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has reduced geopolitical risks, but risks still exist, such as Iran's uranium - enrichment activities and the situation in the Israel - Hamas negotiations [49][52]. Bitumen - Supply: The bitumen开工率 rebounded slightly last week, and the expected production in July is expected to increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year [67][81]. - Demand: The downstream demand for bitumen is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The road - bitumen开工率 increased slightly, but is still at a relatively low level [74]. - Inventory: As of the week ending July 4, 2025, the bitumen refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased slightly, but is still at the lowest level in recent years [78]. PVC - Supply: The PVC开工率 decreased slightly, and new production capacity is about to be put into operation. The upstream calcium carbide price has been slightly reduced [91][100]. - Demand: The downstream demand for PVC has not improved substantially, and the real - estate market improvement still takes time. The export of PVC to India is restricted by policies and the rainy season [9][100]. - Inventory: As of the week ending July 3, 2025, PVC social inventory increased slightly and is still at a relatively high level [97]. L&PP - Supply: The plastic and PP开工率 have declined. New production capacity has been put into operation, and recent maintenance devices have increased, alleviating some pressure [112][126]. - Demand: The downstream demand for polyolefins is weak. The PE and PP downstream开工率 are at relatively low levels, and the recovery is slow [118][126]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory is at a moderately low level, and the de - stocking speed is average [123][126].

Group 1 - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration, with unilateral tariffs set to take effect on August 1, leading to widespread international concern [1][3] - The U.S. government previously implemented a temporary reduction of tariffs to 10% for 90 days to facilitate negotiations, but talks have stalled as countries refuse to compromise on core interests [1][3] - Countries such as South Korea, the EU, and Japan have publicly opposed the U.S. tariffs, indicating a unified front against what they perceive as unreasonable trade policies [1][3] Group 2 - The potential impact of the tariffs includes an additional $130 billion in duties for U.S. companies and over €21 billion in losses for European car manufacturers, highlighting the severe economic consequences of the trade war [3] - The article notes that 29 countries are collectively pushing back against U.S. tariffs, with the EU activating emergency countermeasures and companies like Samsung shifting orders to Chinese firms [3][5] - Former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama emphasizes the need for East Asian countries to enhance strategic autonomy and cooperation, particularly among China, Japan, and South Korea, to counter U.S. policies [5][7] Group 3 - The article suggests that the upcoming APEC meeting in 2025 presents an opportunity for China, Japan, and South Korea to strengthen their collaboration, particularly in the renewable energy sector [5] - It highlights the complementary nature of the three countries' industries, which could lead to significant control over the global renewable energy market if they work together [5] - The article concludes that the U.S. is becoming increasingly isolated due to its aggressive trade tactics, and the future of global trade dynamics will depend on the cooperation among East Asian nations and the U.S.'s ability to reassess its trade strategies [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The overall trend of the domestic futures market on July 7, 2025, was more declines than increases. The prices of various commodities were affected by multiple factors such as macro - environment, supply - demand relationship, and geopolitical risks. Different commodities had different trends and outlooks, including high - level oscillations, low - level oscillations, and trends of being strong or weak [7]. Summary by Commodity Carbonate Lithium - The price of carbonate lithium closed flat after opening lower and rising higher. The average price of SMM battery - grade carbonate lithium was 62,550 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade was 60,950 yuan/ton, both up 250 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply was relatively abundant, with a capacity utilization rate of 61.8%, slightly down from last week. The price of spodumene concentrate was 660 yuan/ton, up 30 dollars/ton week - on - week. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the inventory remained high. The market was affected by the idea of capacity clearance, increasing the expectation of tight supply. The tariff exemption period ended on the 9th, and there might be variables in tariffs. The market was in high - level consolidation and mainly showed a strong trend [3]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened lower and fell during the day. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the self - pick - up price of Mongolian 5 main coking raw coal was 745 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. In May, the import volume of coal decreased, and the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal remained at a low level this year. Domestic coal production increased this period. The inventory of ports and independent coking enterprises increased significantly, and the supply was still loose. The steel mill's demand was still rigid, but the coke price was lowered four times, and the terminal's operating rate was low in high - temperature and rainy weather. The coking coal market was expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside was limited [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened lower, fluctuated, and closed down. The overseas macro - environment was mainly about the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut and the subsequent tariff situation after the expiration of the US tariff exemption period. The employment data was better than expected, increasing the market's wait - and - see attitude towards the Fed's interest - rate cut. The tariff exemption period expired this week. The supply tightness expectation was slightly improved, but the copper inventory in other regions continued to decline. The demand was expected to enter the off - season in July, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The copper price was expected to oscillate at a high level, and attention should be paid to the US tariff policy [9]. Crude Oil - The tension in the Middle East geopolitical situation was greatly relieved, and the market's concern about the supply interruption of crude oil was alleviated. The EIA report showed an unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories, and OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. It was recommended to temporarily exit the previous short positions in crude oil [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt's supply was increasing, with the production expected to reach 2.542 million tons in July, a 6.0% increase from the previous month. The downstream demand was affected by funds and weather. The Middle East geopolitical risk was reduced, and OPEC + planned to increase production in August. It was recommended to buy the 09 - 12 spread of asphalt at low prices [12]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP decreased, and the upstream propane import was restricted. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the downstream recovery was slow, and the inventory pressure was large. It was expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The plastic's operating rate increased slightly, and the downstream operating rate decreased. The upstream ethane import was restricted, and the downstream demand was mainly for rigid - demand restocking. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, and it was expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - The PVC's supply was decreasing, and the downstream demand was still weak. The export was restricted by policies, and the inventory was high. The real - estate market improvement needed time. It was expected to oscillate at a low level, and it was recommended to short at high prices [17]. Soybean Meal - The international soybean supply was still in surplus, and the domestic soybean import and oil - mill operating rate were high. The soybean meal inventory was accumulating, and the market was affected by multiple factors. It was expected to oscillate weakly [18][19]. Soybean Oil - The international soybean oil demand was expected to increase, but the price rebound was restricted by weather and export sales. The domestic soybean - oil supply was abundant, and the inventory was rising. The terminal demand was weak. Attention should be paid to the EPA's hearing on biofuel blending targets [20]. Rebar - The rebar's supply pressure was not substantially relieved, and the demand was affected by high - temperature and rainy weather. The inventory was expected to accumulate, and the cost support was weakening. It was expected to oscillate downward, and it was recommended to short in bands [21][22]. Hot Rolled Coil - The hot - rolled coil's supply was increasing, and the demand was in the off - season. The inventory was accumulating, and the policy implementation was slow. It was expected to oscillate strongly in the near future [23][25]. Urea - The urea's supply was expected to increase this week, and the demand was weak both in industry and agriculture. The inventory was decreasing, and the export supported the price. It was expected to oscillate strongly [26].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the initiation of a global trade war by the Trump administration, with tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% imposed on over 170 countries, effective from August 1 [2][4] - Southeast Asian countries are particularly affected, with Vietnam leading the way by opening its market in exchange for a 20% tariff, prompting other nations to follow suit with varying concessions [2][4] - Indonesia has proposed a "bold plan" to implement near-zero tariffs on 1,700 American goods, covering nearly 70% of U.S. exports to Indonesia, in exchange for preferential access to nickel and large-scale purchases of U.S. liquefied natural gas [2][4] Group 2 - Cambodia has strengthened economic and military ties with the U.S., signing a trade agreement that reduces tariffs from 49% to 20%, led by Deputy Prime Minister Sun Chanthol [4] - Thailand faces significant pressure as its manufacturing costs are higher than Vietnam's, making it vulnerable to the same 20% tariffs [4] - India has submitted a retaliatory tariff proposal to the WTO, indicating plans to counter U.S. tariffs on automobiles and steel, emphasizing that countermeasures must be equivalent to the losses incurred [4][6] Group 3 - The U.S. has categorized over 170 countries into three tariff levels, with the first level (10%) as a reward for compliant nations, the second level (20%) as punishment for resistant countries, and the third level (50%) as a "killing tax" for strategic competitors [4][6] - The U.S. Customs Department is hiring thousands of inspectors and utilizing blockchain technology to track goods, threatening 200% punitive tariffs on countries that attempt to "launder" their product origins through third countries [4][6] - Economists warn that this trade war will force a high-risk restructuring of global supply chains, particularly impacting Southeast Asian economies that heavily rely on exports to the U.S. [6]

本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 冠通期货 每周核心策略推荐 铜 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周沪铜先扬后抑,宏观来看,本周国际市场地缘冲突为主要矛盾,伊以冲突加剧全球经济不确定性,原油价格上涨助推全球通货膨胀速 | | | | | 度,美元指数反弹,压制了有色市场的上涨空间,周三美联储议息仍按兵不动。预计今年仍降息两次共50个基点,目前市场关注伊朗是否 | | | | | 封锁霍尔木兹海峡。若其真正封锁,将对全球经济造成冲击。供给方面,截至2025年6月20日,现货租炼带为-43.70美元/于吨,现货精炼 | | | | | 费为-4.36美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上,铜供应量依然在走强,库存端全球铜库存去化,其中套利驱使下,伦铜 | | | | | 太幅去化，美铜依然在快速赛库，国内目前银去化幅度较缓。主要系建低净货为主。需求方面，截至2025年4月，电解铜表观消费128.27万 | | | | | 吨,相比上月涨跌-8.97万吨,涨跌幅-6.54%。全球经济不确定性的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the approaching peak season, it is recommended to buy low and go long on the spread between asphalt 09 and 12 contracts [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Strategy Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 31.5%, 6.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [1]. - In July, domestic asphalt production is expected to reach 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries varied; the road asphalt operating rate rose 1.4 percentage points to 24.0%, near the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and southern rainfall and high temperatures [1]. - Last week, the spot price in the northwest region increased slightly, with a large increase in shipments. The national shipments increased by 0.42% to 289,500 tons, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline last week, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. The demand in the north is fair [1]. - The intensity of Iran's retaliatory action was less than expected, and Israel and Iran ceased fire, sharply reducing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Trump announced the termination of the original plan to relax sanctions on Iran [1]. - The panic over the global trade war has eased, but the shadow still lingers. The Trump administration issued a simplified license to Chevron but prohibited oil production in Venezuela. Trump said the US - Vietnam trade agreement boosted the crude oil market sentiment [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract rose 0.25% to 3,588 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,565 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,601 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 5,171 to 222,124 lots [2]. Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,815 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract fell to 227 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, facilities such as Zhonghai Binzhou and Wenzhou Zhongyou resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.1 percentage points to 31.5%, 6.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral - low level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to April, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate slightly declined compared to January - March 2025, still negative [4]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation was - 0.4%, slightly up from - 0.9% from January to April 2025, still negative [4]. - From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.5%, slightly down from 5.8% from January to April 2025 [4]. - As of the week of June 27, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries varied; the road asphalt operating rate rose 1.4 percentage points to 24.0%, near the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and southern rainfall [4]. - The government plans to implement a more proactive fiscal policy, with a deficit rate of about 4% (1 percentage point higher than last year), a deficit scale of 5.66 trillion yuan (1.6 trillion yuan more than last year), and a significant increase in various bond issuances [4]. Inventory - As of the week of June 27, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 16.0% compared to the week of June 20, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [5].

当福克斯新闻主持人试图诱导特朗普指责中国"敌对行为"时，这位素来口无遮拦的总统却罕见地为中国 说起"好话"。 6月29日播出的专访中，当福克斯主持人试图诱导他指责中国"敌对行为"时，特朗普没有顺势发难，不 仅强调与中国"相处融洽"，更反将一军指出美国同样采取过对抗行动，反而罕见承认"美国也对中国采 取了很多敌对行动"，让主持人都一时语塞。 特朗普为啥突然口风突变？一方面是他要访华了，抵达北京前要是出现一些"反华"舆论对谁都不好。 另一方面，就是美国设下的关税大限将至，特朗普又表示不会延长期限，换言之他已经抡起大棒准备砸 到盟友头上，但中国是个例外，特朗普并不想将刚刚拿到手的稀土给"吐出来"，更不想让持续数月的谈 判努力付诸东流。 时间拨回4月，美国政府宣布对欧盟、日本等经济体暂停加征钢铝关税90天。值得注意的是，当时这 份"豁免名单"里并没有中国。 美方好不容易和中方达成协议，若此时再度翻脸，最受损了就是特朗普的基本盘了，即便是为了这个， 特朗普都不敢对中国轻举妄动。 可见中方一次次的对等反制成功让美国心生忌惮，而中方手握的筹码更令特朗普投鼠忌器。 因为直到5月12日日内瓦会谈后，中美才达成相互暂停24%关税 ...