1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - Suggest going long on the spread between asphalt 09 and 12 contracts on dips as the market is gradually entering the peak season [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage point to 32.7% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, still at a relatively low level in recent years. In July, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.542 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 144,000 tons (6.0%) and a year - on - year increase of 485,000 tons (23.6%) [1] - Demand side: This week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 25.0% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years. Constrained by funds and heavy rainfall and high temperatures in the South [1] - Inventory: As of the week of July 11, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio continued to rise slightly week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1][5] - Market environment: The intensity of Iran's retaliatory actions was lower than expected, and Israel and Iran reached a cease - fire, sharply reducing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. However, the US Treasury recently announced new sanctions against Iran. The panic over the global trade war has eased, but the shadow still lingers. Crude oil prices have been fluctuating within a narrow range recently [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract fell 0.52% to 3,606 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a low of 3,598 yuan/ton and a high of 3,618 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 9,424 to 217,364 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region dropped to 3,825 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract rose to 219 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: A refinery in Shandong resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate increased by 1.0 percentage point to 32.7% week - on - week, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year, still at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to May, the national highway construction investment decreased by 9.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to decline slightly compared with January - April 2025. From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry was - 0.4%, a slight increase from - 0.9% in January - April 2025. From January to May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.5%, a slight decrease from 5.8% in January - April 2025 [4] - Fiscal policy: The government will implement a more proactive fiscal policy this year. The deficit rate is planned to be around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from last year. The deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from last year. The general public budget expenditure is 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from last year. The total new government debt scale this year is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from last year [4]

Report Summary Overall Market Performance - As of July 11, 2025, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performances. Coking coal rose over 3%, coke and glass rose over 2%, while aluminum oxide fell over 2%. Regarding stock index futures, CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.25%. In terms of capital flow, CSI 1000 2509 had an inflow of 4.43 billion, while Shanghai Gold 2510 had an outflow of 435 million [7]. Industry - Specific Analysis Coking Coal - The price of coking coal opened high and strengthened during the day. The mainstream price in the Shanxi market was 970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Due to the closure of the Sino - Mongolian border during Mongolia's National Naadam Festival and the impact of supply - side reforms, the supply pressure eased. Coke enterprises proposed a price increase, and the short - term market remained strong [3]. Crude Oil - The easing of Middle East geopolitical risks reduced concerns about supply disruptions. OPEC + agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, exceeding market expectations. OPEC also lowered its global oil demand forecast for the next four years. The market was expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation and the outcome of trade negotiations [4][5]. Copper - Copper opened high and weakened during the day. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper starting from August 1. Supply was expected to improve, and demand was expected to enter the off - season. The market was bearish in the short term, and prices were expected to be volatile [9]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium opened high and closed down after fluctuations. The spot price continued to rise, but the market deviated from the fundamental logic. Supply was abundant, and the market was mainly affected by news and macro - sentiment. The price was expected to be high and volatile, and there was a risk of a sharp decline [10][11]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate increased, while the downstream construction rate mostly decreased. The inventory was at a low level. With the approaching peak season and the narrowing of the price range of crude oil, it was recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [12]. PP (Polypropylene) - The downstream开工率 of PP decreased, and the production rate of enterprises increased. The market was affected by tariffs and the expected slowdown of global oil demand. Supply pressure was relieved to some extent, but demand recovery was slow. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [14]. Plastic - The production rate of plastic increased, while the downstream开工率 decreased. The market was affected by tariffs and the situation of global oil demand. Although the cost might decrease, demand recovery was slow, and the price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. PVC - The PVC production rate decreased, and the downstream开工率 was low. Export was restricted, and inventory was high. The market was affected by the real - estate situation and new production capacity. The price was expected to fluctuate at a low level [18]. Soybean Oil - The price of soybean oil showed a high - opening and volatile trend, approaching the 8000 - yuan/ton pressure level. Supply was abundant, and demand increased recently. The price was expected to be volatile and strong, but the upside was limited [19]. Soybean Meal - The price of soybean meal rose. Supply was under pressure due to high domestic oil - mill operating rates, and demand improved slightly. The price was affected by factors such as US soybean production, trade policies, and livestock farming. It was necessary to pay attention to relevant factors [21]. Rebar - Rebar showed a strong - oscillating trend. Supply and demand were both weak, with production decreasing and demand in the seasonal off - season. Inventory was still high, but cost support was strong. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [23]. Hot Rolled Coil - Hot rolled coil showed a strong - oscillating trend with "high - rising and falling back". Supply and demand both decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The market was affected by policies and raw - material prices. The price was expected to remain strong in the short term [24][25]. Urea - The urea price closed down after fluctuations. Production was stable, and demand was weak in the industrial sector but had local increases in the agricultural sector. Inventory decreased continuously. The price was expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to export policies [26].

Core Viewpoint - The trade war initiated by the Trump administration has resulted in only three countries—UK, Vietnam, and Cambodia—signing preliminary agreements with the US, leading to a postponement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy until August 1, indicating a failure of the trade strategy [1][3]. Group 1: Trade Agreements and Global Response - Since the announcement of the "reciprocal tariff" policy in April, the Trump administration aimed to reshape global trade rules using economic leverage, but only three countries have engaged, while major economies like China, EU, Japan, South Korea, India, Canada, and Mexico have refused to cooperate [3][5]. - The three countries that signed agreements are highly dependent on exports to the US, indicating limited bargaining power, while significant economies are planning countermeasures [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact on the US - Major financial figures, including the Federal Reserve and Warren Buffett, have criticized the tariff policy as detrimental to US consumers and manufacturing, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 5.4% since the implementation of tariffs, and food prices increasing by 8.2% [5][7]. - The policy is seen as a tax on American households, leading to increased costs for imported goods, which could result in a slowdown in consumption, reduced corporate profits, and a cooling job market [7][9]. Group 3: International Relations and Trust - Traditional allies, including the EU, Japan, and South Korea, have expressed strong dissatisfaction with the US's approach, with the EU planning to implement counter-tariffs and Japan highlighting violations of WTO rules [9][11]. - The US's actions have led to a significant erosion of its diplomatic influence, with countries reassessing the long-term value of cooperation with the US [11][14]. Group 4: Shift in Global Economic Dynamics - The tariffs have catalyzed a shift towards "de-dollarization" and reduced reliance on the US, with trade among RCEP countries increasing by 17% and trade between the US and EU declining by 9.3% [14][16]. - Historical precedents indicate that aggressive tariff policies have previously led to significant global economic downturns, suggesting that the current situation may have similarly severe consequences [16][18].

Core Viewpoint - The polypropylene (PP) market is experiencing a decline in downstream operating rates, leading to supply pressure and potential price fluctuations at low levels [1] Group 1: Downstream Operations - The PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.27 percentage points to 48.78%, which is lower than the historical average for this time of year [1] - The operating rate for plastic weaving fell by 1.0 percentage points to 42.2%, with a slight reduction in orders, although it remains higher than the same period in the previous two years [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent increase in tariffs by the U.S. has impacted PP downstream product exports, while propane imports for polypropylene production are restricted [1] - New maintenance at Yulong Petrochemical's third line has caused the PP enterprise operating rate to drop to around 82%, indicating a neutral to low level [1] - The production ratio for standard filament has decreased to approximately 28.5%, with inventory levels remaining neutral compared to previous years [1] Group 3: Market Conditions - Following OPEC+'s agreement to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, oil prices have seen a rebound after a decline [1] - The southern region is entering a rainy and hot season, leading to slow recovery in downstream operations, reduced plastic weaving activity, and limited new orders [1] - The market is expected to see low-level fluctuations in PP prices, with a need to monitor global trade war developments [1] Group 4: Futures and Spot Market - The PP2509 futures contract experienced a reduction in positions, with a minimum price of 7040 yuan/ton and a maximum of 7080 yuan/ton, closing at 7078 yuan/ton, reflecting a 0.34% increase [1] - Spot prices for PP in various regions have mostly declined, with filament prices reported between 6950 and 7250 yuan/ton [1] Group 5: Raw Material Prices - As of July 4, the weekly inventory of PP in petrochemical companies decreased by 15,000 tons to 765,000 tons, which is lower than the same period last year [1] - The Brent crude oil September contract rose to $70 per barrel, while the CFR propylene price in China fell by $10 per ton to $785 per ton [1]

豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 2025 年 07 月 09 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：天气良好、美豆收跌，连粕或偏弱震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | | （日盘） 收盘价 | 涨 跌 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4104 | +13（+0.32%） 4106 | +16（+0.39%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 2935 | -13（-0.44%） 2936 | -2 （-0.07%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1017.75 | -3.0（-0.29%） | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 284.4 | -2.0（-0.70%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | 2820～2880， | 较昨-10至持平； 8-9月M2509+0/+30/+60， | 持平;10-11月 | | | 山东 ...

特朗普周二进一步扩大全球贸易战，宣布对进口铜征收50%关税，并表示长期以来威胁要征收的半导体和药品关税即将出台。他还表示，美国与欧盟和中国的贸易谈判进展良好，但表示“很可能”在两天内告诉欧盟对美出口的预期税率。特朗普也表示，将很快对药品征收高达200%的关税，但将给药企至少一年的时间，在关税生效前将供应链转移回美国。COMEX9月期铜合约最终收涨13%，创下最高收盘纪录，盘中涨超17%，创下37年以来最大盘中涨幅。在潜在进口关税威胁下，全球各地加快向美国运输铜，上个月LME可用库存规模一度降至相当于不足全球一天的使用量。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that President Trump has confirmed that new tariffs will be implemented starting August 1, 2025, without any further extensions, which has raised concerns among trade partners [2][3] - Trump initially announced increased tariffs on over 50 trade partners on April 2, but temporarily reduced these rates to 10% for 90 days to allow for negotiations, which were set to expire this week [3] - The tariffs will impose significant rates on various countries, with Japan and South Korea facing 25%, South Africa 30%, and Laos and Myanmar 40% [3] Group 2 - The U.S. stock market showed volatility, with major indices fluctuating near historical highs, indicating that traders were largely unfazed by the tariff notifications issued on Monday [5] - Market sentiment has shifted positively since April, with many traders believing that the worst phase of the trade war is over, as evidenced by the S&P 500 index nearing historical peaks [6] - A survey from the New York Federal Reserve indicated that consumer inflation expectations have returned to levels seen before the trade war began, with respondents expecting a 3% inflation rate one year from now [6][7]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 8 日 热点品种 原油： 伊朗微弱的报复行动及伊以实现全面停火，无疑将此前紧张的中东地缘风险急剧 降温，极大得缓解了市场对于原油的供给中断的担忧。目前仍需关注停火后中东 局势后续的发展，如双方是否会违反停火协议，伊朗核材料的处理，美国对伊朗 原油出口的制裁等。日前，伊朗驻联合国大使表示永远不会停止铀浓缩活动，内 塔尼亚胡称伊朗通过其核力量和导弹能力对以色列构成重大威胁，中东地缘风险 不能完全排除另外，特朗普表示中国可以继续从伊朗进口石油。基本面上，原油 进入季节性出行旺季，美国原油库存降至低位，只是最新的 EIA 报告显示美国原 油、汽油库存意外增加，加上周末 OPEC+同意在八月份将石油产量提高 54.8 万 桶/日。这超过此前市场预计的 41.1 万桶/日。不过，7 月 7 日，沙特阿美将旗 舰产品阿拉伯轻质原油 8 月对亚洲的官方售价上调至每桶较阿曼/迪拜均价高出 2.20 美元，较 7 月上涨 1 美元，超出市场预期的每桶上涨 50 至 ...

Group 1 - India has responded decisively to the U.S. tariffs on its auto parts and steel by imposing retaliatory tariffs worth $725 million on specific U.S. goods, citing violations of WTO rules [3] - The Indian government recognizes that its exports to the U.S. account for only about 18% of its total exports, providing a buffer against U.S. pressure [5] - India's domestic market strength is a crucial factor in its strategy, as it seeks to assert its independence and not be seen as an economic subordinate to the U.S. [5] Group 2 - Modi's government is strategically repositioning India on the global stage by actively participating in the BRICS summit, aiming to take on the role of a representative for the Global South [7] - At the BRICS summit, India supported reforms to the International Monetary Fund and challenged the dominance of the U.S. dollar, indicating a significant shift in its foreign policy [9] - The actions taken by India reflect a desire for a multipolar world and a rejection of being a pawn in the geopolitical game dominated by major powers [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Crude oil: The weak retaliatory action by Iran and the full ceasefire between Iran and Israel have significantly reduced the geopolitical risks in the Middle East, alleviating concerns about crude oil supply disruptions. However, the geopolitical risks in the Middle East cannot be completely ruled out. Crude oil has entered the seasonal travel peak season, and U.S. crude oil inventories have dropped to a low level. But the latest EIA report shows an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories, and OPEC+ has agreed to increase oil production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. It is recommended to temporarily exit the previous short positions in crude oil [7][14]. - Bitumen: The bitumen开工率 has rebounded slightly, but the downstream demand is still affected by factors such as funds and weather. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have cooled down, and OPEC+ plans to increase production in August, which puts pressure on the crude oil market sentiment. As it gradually enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread of bitumen at low prices [8][81]. - PVC: The upstream calcium carbide price has been slightly reduced. The PVC开工率 has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is still large, and the real - estate market improvement still takes time. It is expected that PVC will fluctuate at a low level in the near future, and it is mainly recommended to go short at high prices [9][100]. - L&PP: The plastic and PP开工率 have declined to a moderately low level. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is still large. The U.S. government's cancellation of ethane - related restrictions is beneficial to the recovery of Sino - U.S. trade. It is expected that polyolefins will fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [10][126]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC's crude oil production increased in April and May 2025, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia. U.S. crude oil production decreased slightly in the week ending June 27, 2025, and the strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased [20]. - Demand: According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased, but was lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased, while diesel weekly demand increased [36]. - Inventory: As of the week ending June 27, 2025, U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories increased unexpectedly, while Cushing crude oil inventory decreased [45]. - Geopolitical Risks: The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has reduced geopolitical risks, but risks still exist, such as Iran's uranium - enrichment activities and the situation in the Israel - Hamas negotiations [49][52]. Bitumen - Supply: The bitumen开工率 rebounded slightly last week, and the expected production in July is expected to increase compared with the previous month and the same period last year [67][81]. - Demand: The downstream demand for bitumen is affected by factors such as funds and weather. The road - bitumen开工率 increased slightly, but is still at a relatively low level [74]. - Inventory: As of the week ending July 4, 2025, the bitumen refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased slightly, but is still at the lowest level in recent years [78]. PVC - Supply: The PVC开工率 decreased slightly, and new production capacity is about to be put into operation. The upstream calcium carbide price has been slightly reduced [91][100]. - Demand: The downstream demand for PVC has not improved substantially, and the real - estate market improvement still takes time. The export of PVC to India is restricted by policies and the rainy season [9][100]. - Inventory: As of the week ending July 3, 2025, PVC social inventory increased slightly and is still at a relatively high level [97]. L&PP - Supply: The plastic and PP开工率 have declined. New production capacity has been put into operation, and recent maintenance devices have increased, alleviating some pressure [112][126]. - Demand: The downstream demand for polyolefins is weak. The PE and PP downstream开工率 are at relatively low levels, and the recovery is slow [118][126]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory is at a moderately low level, and the de - stocking speed is average [123][126].