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冠通每日交易策略-20250623
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 12:02
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期:2025 年 6 月 23 日 热点品种 主 品主力 涨跌幅 增 焦煤: 焦煤今日低开低走,日内震荡上行,现货方面,山西市场(介休)主流价格报价 940 元/吨,较上个交易日持平;蒙 5#主焦原煤自提价 718/吨,较上个交易日+18 元/吨。数据来看,蒙煤近期通关数量有减缩,但国内煤矿多发复产,煤炭产量 有所增加,矿山日产及洗煤厂日产均回升,连同焦煤总体库存均有累库,需求方 面,焦炭第四轮提降仍在继续,关注提降落地情况,本期焦企利润亏损有减少, 但后续若四轮提降落地,利润负值可能扩大,目前焦炭库存高位,价格博弈后, 对焦煤拿货量或减少,但钢厂盈利增加,铁水产量回升,目前终端进入淡季,焦 煤基本面维持宽松,暂无大幅上涨预期,关注 820 附近阻力位能否有效突破,下 方关注 780 附近支撑。 尿素: 今日盘面低开高走日内呈下跌趋势,周末价格稳中下降,工厂多执行前期待发为 主,新单成交不畅。上周低位反弹后,周五盘面开启回调。基本面来看,日产本 周预计继续上升,上游工厂 ...
沥青:冲高回落
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 11:19
【冠通研究】 沥青:冲高回落 制作日期:2025年6月20日 【策略分析】 单边观望/逢低做多沥青09-12价差 供应端,本周沥青开工率环比回落1.1个百分点至30.4%,较去年同期高了4.7个百分点,沥青开 工率转而回落,处于近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据,6月份地炼预计排产130.9万吨,环 比增加6.5万吨,增幅为5.2%,同比增加37万吨,增幅为39.3%。本周沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现, 其中道路沥青开工环比下降3个百分点至22.6%,仍处于近年同期最低水平,受到资金制约。本周山 东地区个别炼厂复产,加之原油价格上涨带动交投气氛,出货量增加较多,全国出货量环比增加 5.99%至28.83万吨,处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比本周环比继续回落,仍处于近年来同期的最 低位,南方仍有降雨间歇影响,资金仍受制约,北方需求表现尚可。美伊核协议谈判陷入僵局,会 谈已经无限期中止。美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁,以色列和伊朗互相袭击,并将袭击目标扩大至能 源设施,中东地缘风险急剧升温。全球贸易战的恐慌情绪缓解,只是全球贸易战阴云仍未完全散去, 美国特朗普政府向雪佛龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证,但禁止在委内瑞拉生产 ...
避美元趋欧元潮席卷外汇期权市场
news flash· 2025-06-20 10:08
面对不可预测的美国政策以及全球贸易战带来的风险,交易员纷纷避开美元,欧元随之在全球外汇期权 市场中扮演起了更重要的角色。对比美国存管信托及清算公司(DTCC)今年头五个月与2024年最后五个 月的数据,可以看到约15%-30%与美元兑主要货币挂钩的合约已变成欧元。此外,还有迹象表明,欧元 正被用作避险资产(传统上由美元扮演的角色),以及用于押注大幅波动。 ...
瑞穗银行:泰国央行需要降息50至75个基点以稳住局势
news flash· 2025-06-20 03:31
Core Viewpoint - Thailand is facing a new political crisis that threatens its economy, which is already on the brink of a technical recession, necessitating a potential interest rate cut by the central bank to stabilize the situation [1] Economic Situation - Thailand's economy is at risk due to ongoing political instability and the impact of the global trade war [1] - The country experienced lower economic growth last year compared to neighboring countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore [1] Political Context - The current Prime Minister, Prayut Chan-o-cha, is facing internal divisions within the ruling coalition, which could lead to legislative stagnation and affect trade negotiations with the United States [1] - The previous Prime Minister was ousted by a court ruling, and her father was overthrown in a military coup, highlighting the political volatility [1] Recommendations - Mizuho Bank's macro research head for Asia, Vishnu Varathan, suggests that the Bank of Thailand may need to accelerate interest rate cuts by 50 to 75 basis points to boost economic confidence [1] - There is an urgent need for additional stimulus measures due to weakened business confidence and fragile market sentiment [1]
冠通期货每周核心策略推荐-20250619
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 23:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report provides trading strategies for multiple futures varieties, including crude oil, asphalt, PVC, L&PP, copper, and urea, based on their supply - demand situations, market sentiment, and geopolitical factors [3][6][9]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Trading Logic**: OPEC+ increased production, but growth was below expectations. Supply pressure eased due to wildfires in Canada, Middle - East geopolitical risks, and a decline in US drilling. Demand improved with better - than - expected US economic data and the start of the traditional travel season. However, there are concerns about OPEC+ future production increases and trade - war impacts on demand [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: The price is expected to oscillate upward [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Lightly buy crude oil call options [3]. Asphalt - **Trading Logic**: Supply increased as the asphalt开工率 rose. Demand was mixed, with road asphalt开工率 down. Inventory was low. Geopolitical factors and trade - war concerns affected the market. As it enters the peak season, the price is expected to be in high - level oscillation [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: High - level oscillation [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread [3]. PVC - **Trading Logic**: Supply was high as the开工率 was relatively high. Demand was weak, with exports affected by Indian policies and the real - estate market still in a slow - recovery phase. Inventory was high. However, positive commodity sentiment from geopolitical factors and trade talks may lead to a small rebound [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: Small rebound [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short after the price rebounds [3]. L&PP - **Trading Logic**: The开工率 of plastics and PP was relatively high. Downstream开工率 decreased slightly. Inventory was high. Positive commodity sentiment may lead to a small rebound [3]. - **Multi - Short View**: Small rebound [3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short after the price rebounds [3]. Copper - **Trading Logic**: Macro - uncertainties came from geopolitical conflicts and Sino - US trade talks. Supply was stable, while demand weakened, with consumption down and downstream拿货积极性 low. The market's expectation of interest - rate cuts boosted bullish sentiment, but the price remained in an oscillation range [6]. - **Multi - Short View**: Range - bound fluctuation [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long at low prices within the range [6]. Urea - **Trading Logic**: Supply was high with daily production around 200,000 tons. Demand was weak, with agricultural demand yet to fully start and industrial demand weak. Inventory was under pressure. The price rebounded due to better weekend sales, but the rebound height is limited [9]. - **Multi - Short View**: Low - level rebound with limited upside [9]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Sell short after the price rebounds [9].
加拿大央行会议纪要:官员们一致认为,发生一场旷日持久、严重的全球贸易战的可能性已经降低。
news flash· 2025-06-17 17:33
加拿大央行会议纪要:官员们一致认为,发生一场旷日持久、严重的全球贸易战的可能性已经降低。 ...
沥青策略:单边观望、做多沥青09-12价差
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 09:54
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a strategy of unilateral waiting and going long on the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts. As the peak season approaches, it is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread. However, due to the large fluctuations of crude oil affected by geopolitical risks, cautious operation is required [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 9.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and continued to rise, being at a moderately low level in the same period in recent years. In June, local refineries are expected to produce 1.309 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons (5.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons (39.3%) [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The operating rate of road asphalt remained flat at 25.6% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, restricted by funds. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 7.98% week - on - week to 272,000 tons, at a moderate level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The demand in the north performed well, while the south was still affected by intermittent rainfall and funds were still restricted [1]. - Market environment: The negotiation on the US - Iran nuclear agreement has reached a deadlock and has been indefinitely suspended. The US has increased sanctions on Iran, and Israel and Iran have attacked each other, expanding the targets to energy facilities, leading to a sharp increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The panic about the global trade war has eased, but the shadow of the global trade war has not completely dissipated. The Trump administration has issued a simplified license to Chevron, allowing it to stay in Venezuela for minimal equipment maintenance but banning oil production. Attention should be paid to the changes in Venezuela's crude oil exports. Recently, asphalt has followed crude oil to fluctuate strongly, but crude oil fluctuates greatly due to geopolitical risks [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract fell 0.03% to 3,644 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,593 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,655 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 6,817 to 259,759 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract rose to 156 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Some devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou resumed production intermittently, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 9.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, continuing to rise and being at a moderately low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Demand - related investment data: From January to April, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate declined slightly compared with that from January to March 2025, still being negative. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 0.9%, a slight decline from - 0.2% from January to March 2025. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.8%, the same as that from January to March 2025 [4]. - Fiscal policy: The government work report proposes to implement a more proactive fiscal policy. This year, the deficit ratio is planned to be around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and the deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year. The general public budget expenditure scale is 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from the previous year. It is planned to issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, and special treasury bonds worth 500 billion yuan to support the capital replenishment of large state - owned commercial banks. It is planned to arrange local government special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year. The total newly - added government debt scale this year is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [4]. Inventory - As of the week of June 13, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 17.6% compared with the week of June 6, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5].
特朗普恐将单挑全世界!G7峰会会否上演一场“史诗级”争吵?
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-06-16 13:36
由美国、英国、加拿大、法国、德国、意大利和日本组成的七国集团(G7)将齐聚加拿大开会,此外 还有来自欧盟的代表和其他受邀嘉宾,包括澳大利亚、巴西、墨西哥、印度尼西亚、乌克兰、南非和韩 国的领导人。 通常来说,G7峰会旨在就全球最重大的经济和地缘政治挑战达成共识,并协调行动以应对这些挑战。 然而,今年该集团的问题恰恰来自内部,特朗普的一系列贸易关税和迫在眉睫的全球贸易战构成了现实 的威胁。唯一的例外是英国,该国已于5月与华盛顿签署了一项贸易协议。 此次峰会召开之际,特朗普暂停征收"对等"关税的90天期限仍在生效。日本和欧盟正寻求在7月9日的最 后期限前达成协议,届时,目前被特朗普为促成谈判而临时降至10%的更高关税,可能会来势汹汹地卷 土重来。 加拿大遭受了25%的汽车关税和50%的钢铁及铝进口关税,而未被包括墨西哥在内的《美墨加协议》 (USMCA)所覆盖的商品也需缴纳关税。加拿大采取了报复措施,对美国进口商品征收25%的关税, 尽管为了保护国内产业,其中一些已被暂停。 峰会期间的贸易谈判 大西洋理事会国际经济主席John Lipsky在峰会前的一份研究报告中说,"G7在五十年前成立,是为了让 世界上的发达经 ...
惠誉警告,全球主权债务前景恶化,新兴市场面临双重挤压
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-11 04:07
Group 1: Global Sovereign Debt Outlook - Fitch Ratings has downgraded the global sovereign debt outlook for 2025 from "neutral" to "deteriorating" due to escalating global trade wars and extreme policy uncertainty [1] - The global GDP growth rate is expected to slow from 2.9% in 2024 to 2% in 2025, driven by significant adverse global economic shocks [1] - The report highlights a vicious cycle of uncertainty affecting global trade volumes, supply chains, and investment environments, which may create a more complex market environment than the trade tensions of 2018 [1] Group 2: Oil Market Impact - Fitch predicts that Brent crude oil prices will decline from $79.5 per barrel in 2024 to $65 per barrel in 2025, putting significant pressure on major oil-exporting countries' economies and finances [2] Group 3: Emerging Markets Risks - The reduction of U.S. international aid will expose already vulnerable emerging markets to additional risks [3] - However, the depreciation of the dollar may serve as a "lifeline" for some emerging markets, easing their debt burdens and providing central banks with more room to cut interest rates to stimulate their economies [4] Group 4: Structural Economic Challenges - Global public finances are expected to remain under pressure in 2025, particularly in developed markets, due to rising defense spending, high interest costs, aging populations, weak economic growth, and ongoing social pressures [5] - The median global government debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to rise from 54.1% at the end of 2024 to 54.5% at the end of 2025, indicating an increasing debt burden [5] Group 5: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks remain high, with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, intensifying U.S.-China strategic competition, and fluctuating U.S. foreign policy adding complexity to the situation [6] Group 6: Rating Outlook - Despite numerous challenges, Fitch's mid-2025 rating outlook remains relatively balanced, with 13 countries receiving positive outlooks, slightly higher than the 10 countries with negative outlooks [7] - A series of rating downgrades since 2020 has created "headroom" for some countries, enhancing their resilience against deteriorating credit conditions [8] - The effectiveness of policy responses will be crucial in determining the direction of ratings, with timely interventions potentially supporting sovereign credit ratings [9]
美国国会内幕交易?特朗普宣布“对等关税”之际 议员大肆买卖股票
智通财经网· 2025-06-10 13:19
当周被购入的普通股包括:环汇(GPN.US)、塔吉特(TGT.US)、第一资本信贷(COF.US)、卡特彼勒 (CAT.US)、埃克森美孚(XOM.US)、摩根大通(JPM.US)、微软(MSFT.US)、英伟达(NVDA.US)和特斯拉 (TSLA.US)。 该分析进一步表明,两位议员——众议员Ro Khanna和Rob Bresnahan——本人或其家属的交易记录最为 繁多。而这两位议员是过去曾要求实施股票交易禁令的那几位立法者中的两位——去年,由两党议员组 成的联盟提出了一项国会股票交易禁令提案,旨在防止议员利用内部消息获利。 根据该报告,在这段时间内,霍尼韦尔(HON.US)、埃森哲(ACN.US)和Visa(V.US)是卖出量最大的股 票,而MKS仪器(MKSI.US)和亚马逊(AMZN.US)则是购买量最大的股票。 在"解放周"申报文件中出售的其他普通股包括苹果公司(AAPL.US)、雅培(ABT.US)、雷神技术 (RTX.US)、Okta(OKTA.US)、美国银行(BAC.US)、博通(AVGO.US)、思科(CSCO.US)、亿滋 (MDLZ.US)以及联合健康(UNH.US)。 智通财经 ...