Group 1 - The current A-share market is entering a critical phase of new and old kinetic energy conversion, with the market index performing stronger than expected due to improving mid-term pessimistic factors and increasing confidence in the conversion process [1][9]. - The four-stage framework of new and old kinetic energy conversion includes: "new and old interweaving," "new surpassing old," "the last song of the old," and "the new era," with the A-share market currently in the "new surpassing old" stage [4][9]. - The "new" elements include the potential rise of Hong Kong stocks as new core assets, the importance of overseas expansion for A-share growth, advancements in hardware technology (AI semiconductors, military, innovative drugs), and a new consumption investment model centered around the New Consumption 50 [4][9]. Group 2 - The comparison with Japan's experience in the early 2010s highlights the need for external demand to support industrial restructuring, as Japanese companies increasingly sought overseas expansion to overcome domestic market saturation [3][35]. - Japan's new and old kinetic energy conversion was supported by internal demand recovery, characterized by rising corporate profitability, completed deleveraging, and increasing disposable income, which laid the foundation for moderate domestic recovery [53][59]. - The Japanese real estate market stabilized post-2012, contributing to internal demand recovery and economic confidence, with core city property prices rebounding and office vacancy rates declining [64][68]. Group 3 - The stock market performance during Japan's new and old kinetic energy conversion was closely linked to improvements in total factor productivity (TFP), which drove systematic valuation increases in the Nikkei index [74][75]. - The current A-share market is expected to experience a similar trajectory, with the conversion process potentially leading to a sustained upward shift in market confidence and index levels [40].

Group 1 - The article discusses the "three-phase overlap" theory and its implications for China's economic transformation, emphasizing that macroeconomics is closely linked to national development and people's lives [1] - The government work report highlights the focus on expanding domestic demand, with Jiangsu's retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 5.6% year-on-year in the first quarter, driven by consumption policies and market integration [1] - The shift from "world factory" to "world market" is illustrated by the comparison of import and export data during the 14th Five-Year Plan, showcasing economic resilience and the impact of an open economy on macroeconomic growth [1] Group 2 - The discussion on "high-quality development stage macro policy orientation" emphasizes the need for a dynamic balance between stabilizing growth, adjusting structure, and preventing risks, as seen in the coordinated development in Nanjing's Jiangbei New Area [2] - The importance of understanding macroeconomic analysis from a holistic perspective is highlighted, indicating that economic insights should be derived from data trends that reflect people's livelihoods and openness [2]

Core Insights - The 2025 World Economic Forum Summer Davos held from June 24 to 26 in Tianjin focused on "New Era Entrepreneurial Spirit," addressing global economic challenges and new growth models with participation from over 1,700 guests from around 90 countries [2][4] Group 1: Themes and Discussions - The event featured a masterclass on "Risk, Resilience, and Industrial Transformation Strategies," co-hosted by Peking University's Guanghua School of Management and the World Economic Forum, aimed at exploring governance strategies for businesses amid uncertainty [2][4] - Key discussions included enhancing corporate resilience through advanced analytical tools and frameworks to navigate complex challenges [6][9] Group 2: Insights from Experts - Liu Qiao emphasized the importance of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in the context of China-U.S. economic competition, noting that China's TFP growth slowed to 1.2%-1.5% post-2010, but strategic initiatives in new energy and digital technology could drive future GDP growth [9][10] - René Rohrbeck introduced the "Future Adaptability" framework, highlighting the need for companies to develop three core capabilities: system observation, foresight, and experimentation, which can significantly enhance profitability and market value [11][12] - Jörgen Sandström discussed the potential of industrial clusters in improving regional cooperation and resource sharing, advocating for data-driven collaborative governance to address supply chain risks [13][14] Group 3: Industry Responses - Wang Nan from Neusoft Group shared challenges faced by companies in international markets, stressing the need for flexible business strategies and local partnerships to navigate rising tariffs and market access issues [17][18] - Caroline Berson from PepsiCo highlighted the importance of a robust strategic framework for managing policy risks, advocating for strong trend scanning capabilities to adapt to ongoing trade changes [19][20] - Dai Xin from Swiss Re pointed out the relatively weak risk protection mechanisms in China, suggesting that improved risk management is essential for sustainable growth [21][22]

Core Insights - The Chinese economy is entering a phase focused on developing new quality productivity over the next 5-10 years, emphasizing both new strategic emerging industries and the transformation of existing manufacturing through green, low-carbon, and digital intelligence [1][6] Group 1: Importance of Productive Services Industry - The productive services industry is crucial for enhancing manufacturing technology and efficiency, serving as a key component throughout the entire industrial chain [1][2] - It consists of ten major categories, including technology development, logistics, financial services, market services, green services, digital services, trade, branding, consulting, and talent training [2][3] - The productive services industry is a growth driver for GDP, with its share in the U.S. rising from 10% in 1950 to 50% in 2024, while China's share has increased from just over 10% in 1980 to 27%-31% recently [3][4] Group 2: Economic Impact and Growth Potential - The productive services sector is a breeding ground for high-quality manufacturing and unicorn companies, with significant contributions to the capital market [3][4] - It enhances industrial profit margins and adds high-end value to manufactured goods [5] - A developed productive services industry can significantly increase total factor productivity by focusing on knowledge, talent, and innovation rather than traditional resource inputs [6][8] Group 3: Current Challenges in China - China's productive services industry accounts for only 27%-30% of GDP, lower than the 40%-50% seen in developed countries [8] - The service trade's share in China is only 12%, compared to 30%-40% in Europe and the U.S. [8][9] - Profit margins in China's industrial manufacturing are around 7%, below the global average of 10%, indicating a need for improvement [9] Group 4: Development Strategies - Key strategies for developing the productive services industry include fostering small and medium-sized enterprises, nurturing leading companies, and establishing industry internet platforms [10] - By 2040, it is projected that the productive services sector could account for 35% of GDP, with manufacturing remaining at around 27%, optimizing the industrial structure [10]

Core Insights - Global productivity growth has significantly slowed down over the past few decades, with over half of the deceleration in global economic growth since the 2008 financial crisis attributed to this decline in productivity growth [1] - Total factor productivity (TFP) has decreased from an annual growth rate of 1.6% in the early 2000s to 0.6% post-crisis, with developed economies experiencing a drop to 0.4% and emerging markets seeing a more substantial decline from over 2% to 0.6% [1] - The disparity in productivity levels across countries accounts for more than half of the global GDP per capita gap, highlighting the importance of productivity growth in reducing income inequality and achieving sustainable development [1] Scenario Analysis Scenario 1: Productivity Leap - A cycle of widespread technological innovation and rapid development of human capital leads to significant and comprehensive productivity growth, potentially increasing global GDP growth to 4% [2] - Key investments in education and training are emphasized to enhance workforce skills, alongside the accelerated application of emerging technologies like AI and quantum computing [2] Scenario 2: Automation Overload - Technological advancements outpace human capital development, resulting in a "winner-takes-all" scenario where wealth and power become increasingly concentrated [2] - Leading firms leverage automation and AI to boost productivity, but this advantage does not disseminate widely, exacerbating productivity disparities across firms, industries, and regions [2] Scenario 3: Human Advantage - Human capital development surpasses technological progress, leading to a more human-centered economic activity with slow and uneven productivity growth [3] - Focus shifts towards nurturing and attracting talent, with significant reforms in education and training systems to cultivate high-skilled labor that meets future economic demands [3] Scenario 4: Productivity Stagnation - Both technological innovation and human capital development slow down, hindering productivity growth and leading to stagnation in living standards and socio-economic development [3] - The report predicts significant growth in information technology and digital communication sectors, driven by technologies like AI and cloud computing, while also facing risks related to technology dependence [3] Industry-Specific Insights - The education sector plays a crucial role in advancing technology and human capital development, with increased investment expected to drive innovation in educational technology [4] - The financial, professional, and real estate services sectors are highly reliant on skilled labor and advanced technology, with potential productivity increases of up to 30% through AI adoption [3] - Manufacturing productivity growth will vary by industry, with innovation-intensive sectors like aerospace and automotive expected to achieve rapid growth through global talent acquisition and technology integration [3] - The energy and materials sectors are set to benefit from digitalization and automation, although they face challenges such as supply constraints for critical materials and rising energy costs [3]

Group 1 - The core concept of "new quality productivity" emphasizes a significant enhancement in total factor productivity as a key indicator [1][2] - New quality productivity is characterized by high technology, high efficiency, and high quality, aligning with advanced production quality that meets new development concepts [2][8] - The development of new quality productivity is driven by technological breakthroughs, innovative allocation of production factors, and deep industrial transformation [2][9] Group 2 - Total factor productivity (TFP) is a comprehensive measure of productivity that reflects the efficiency of all production factors, distinguishing it from single-factor productivity measures [3][4] - TFP is crucial for understanding economic growth, as it represents the difference between actual output growth and factor input growth, indicating the quality of economic growth [5][6] - Historical experiences from developed countries show that TFP improvement is essential for sustainable economic growth, especially during industrialization [6][7] Group 3 - Since the reform and opening up, China has significantly improved TFP through the adoption of advanced foreign technologies and continuous economic reforms [7][8] - Challenges such as insufficient technological progress and resource allocation efficiency have led to a slowdown in TFP growth in recent years [7][8] - The focus on enhancing TFP is critical for transitioning to new quality productivity, which requires addressing existing barriers in technology and market efficiency [8][9] Group 4 - Accelerating the development of new quality productivity necessitates a robust technological innovation system and improved resource allocation efficiency [9][11] - The establishment of a new type of production relationship is essential for enhancing resource allocation efficiency and achieving high-quality development [11][12] - The government and market must work together to create an environment that fosters innovation and optimizes resource allocation, thereby improving TFP [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of improving total factor productivity (TFP) as a key indicator for high-quality development, highlighting its role in transforming economic growth from quantity to quality [1][2][3]. Group 1: Understanding Total Factor Productivity - Total factor productivity (TFP) is defined as the ratio of output to the combined inputs of capital, labor, energy, and other factors, reflecting the contribution of all resources to production [2]. - TFP is crucial for determining the level of economic development and potential growth rates, as it indicates the efficiency of resource allocation and technological advancement [2][3]. Group 2: International Experience and Implications - Countries that maintain stable and rapid TFP growth after industrialization are more likely to escape the middle-income trap and achieve high-income status [3]. - Many developing countries struggle to sustain growth after reaching a certain income level due to a reliance on imitative innovation rather than original innovation, leading to stagnation in TFP growth [3]. Group 3: Factors Promoting TFP Improvement - Key factors for enhancing TFP include: 1. Technological innovation and R&D investment, which drive efficiency and reduce resource dependency [4]. 2. Institutional innovation and structural reforms that optimize market mechanisms and improve management efficiency [4]. 3. Economic globalization that facilitates trade, capital allocation, and technology diffusion [4]. 4. Human capital accumulation through education and skills training, which enhances labor quality and adaptability [4]. Group 4: China's Economic Context - Since the reform and opening-up, China has leveraged its labor resource advantages to attract labor-intensive industries and has rapidly advanced its technological capabilities [5][6]. - As China's economy matures, the traditional low-cost advantage in production factors is diminishing, necessitating a shift towards high-quality development and TFP enhancement [6]. Group 5: Development of New Quality Productivity - The core of developing new quality productivity lies in original and independent innovation, moving away from mere imitation [7]. - New quality productivity encompasses various innovations across technology, economy, enterprises, and business models, aiming to optimize the combination of labor and resources to enhance TFP [7][8]. Group 6: Current Trends and Challenges - Recent statistics indicate a trend of accelerating industrial production in China, with significant growth in high-tech manufacturing, although the overall impact on TFP remains limited due to the relatively small scale of emerging industries [8]. - Traditional industries are undergoing structural adjustments, which may temporarily suppress TFP growth [8]. Group 7: Recommendations for Future Development - To foster new quality productivity, it is essential to deepen reforms and expand openness, creating a conducive environment for innovation [9]. - Local governments should adopt a tailored approach to promote new industries and technologies based on regional resources and conditions [10]. - Encouraging the vitality of private enterprises is crucial, as they play a significant role in technological innovation and contribute substantially to emerging industries [10]. - Financial support for technological innovation should be enhanced, ensuring that financial services align with the needs of innovative enterprises [11].

Group 1: Global Economic Landscape - The core focus of the global economic landscape is the rebalancing of inflation and debt, with countries experiencing divergent outcomes based on their debt levels [2] - The U.S. is facing the "Triffin Dilemma" and high fiscal deficit pressures, leading to increased market volatility [2][3] - Current U.S. economic indicators show resilience in consumption and investment, but inflationary pressures may complicate monetary policy [3] Group 2: China's Economic Recovery - China's economy is characterized by a "volatile recovery," with policy-driven consumption and manufacturing focusing on high-quality development [4][5] - The consumption market is rebounding, with retail sales growth of 4.7% year-on-year in the first four months of 2025, driven by policies like trade-in programs [4] - The manufacturing sector is transitioning towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, with significant contributions from technological innovations [4] Group 3: Macroeconomic Policy in China - China's macroeconomic policy is expected to become more proactive, focusing on "stabilizing growth, managing debt, and promoting transformation" [6][7] - Fiscal policy is set to increase, with a projected deficit of 13.9 trillion yuan and a deficit rate of 4% for 2025, alongside significant special bond issuance [6] - Monetary policy has room for further easing, with expectations for additional rate cuts and liquidity support measures [6] Group 4: Asset Class Outlook - In the asset class outlook, A-shares are seen as relatively undervalued compared to bonds, particularly in high-dividend and technology sectors [8] - Government bond yields are expected to have downward potential, with a flattening yield curve anticipated [8] - The RMB exchange rate is projected to remain stable within the 7.0-7.35 range, influenced by balanced factors [8] Group 5: Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to closely monitor policy trends and industry dynamics to identify structural opportunities amid volatility [9] - The global economy is expected to navigate through a phase of divergence between the U.S. and China, with the latter likely achieving a stable recovery through policy support and structural upgrades [9]

编者按：该文章曾在深蓝智库2024年度专题报告《消费向"新"力》中刊发，在今天看来，作者在文章中 的很多观点具有前瞻性。故今年报告中再将文章原文转发，希望与前篇文章形成整体，从政策理论中寻 找提振消费增长的动力。 消费与投资之间的关系 以消费需求为基础，在市场经济条件下，更加易于发现有合理回报的投资方向。 投资可以促进消费。当企业增加投资时，一般会创造更多的就业机会，提高劳动者收入，进而增加他们 的消费能力。此外，投资常常伴随着技术创新和生产效率提升，扩张的供给可以降低商品价格或增加新 型商品供给，刺激居民消费。 消费会作用于投资。当消费者需求增加时，企业为了满足消费需求，往往需要扩大生产规模，比如购买 新的机器设备、扩建工厂或者提升技术等。同时，强劲的消费市场通常意味着企业预期会有更高的销售 额和利润。这种积极的财务预期会激励企业进行更多的投资活动，因为投资通常是基于对未来资本回报 率的预期。随着消费者偏好的变化和需求的升级，企业需要不断投资于研发和技术创新，以生产出更加 符合人们需求的新产品和服务。这种创新投资不仅增强了企业竞争力，也推动了整个行业的技术进步。 因此，以消费需求为基础，在市场经济条件下，更 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for China to develop an independent economic management knowledge system by 2030, as highlighted by the Dean of Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, Liu Qiao [1][2] Group 1: Economic Development and Theoretical Framework - Liu Qiao discussed the unique government-market development model in China over the past 40 years, which has facilitated a significant industrial revolution, yet acknowledges the need for a more systematic theoretical response to the oversimplified understanding of the government-market relationship [1] - The rapid advancement of frontier technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and cloud computing is reshaping business logic and economic operations, necessitating a reevaluation of the role of the securities market and the exploration of governance models that meet new era demands [1] Group 2: Innovation and Growth Strategies - Post-industrial revolution, there has been a decline in total factor productivity in China, prompting the need to invest in key sectors like digital transformation, new infrastructure, and carbon neutrality to unleash the exponential effects of technological capability changes [1] - Liu Qiao emphasized the importance of institutional reforms to stimulate the entrepreneurial and innovative vitality of 180 million market entities, aiming to create new growth resources for the Chinese economy [1] Group 3: Research and Knowledge Creation - Liu Qiao highlighted that China is becoming a unique research field, where every reform and innovation represents a forward-looking knowledge exploration, providing a rare opportunity to construct an original knowledge system in management disciplines [2] - The Guanghua School of Management aims to build an original theoretical system in Chinese economics and business management, targeting significant breakthroughs in key academic areas related to national strategic needs and major contemporary issues [2]