1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - In May, the year - on - year profit of industrial enterprises above designated size dropped to -9.1%, a significant decline from April. The year - on - year decline of PPI in May was 3.3%, and the drag on profits increased compared to April. After excluding price factors, the growth rate of single - month operating income declined marginally, indicating that the support from quantity factors also weakened in May. The resonance of internal and external demand fluctuations and the widening decline of PPI under the influence of tariffs led to a further decline in the profit growth rate in May [2][25]. - Looking ahead, the "rush - to - export" effect has weakened since June. The internal driving force of the economy in the second quarter shows obvious off - season characteristics, and the economy in the second half of the year faces high - base disturbances, so the necessity of domestic demand policy stimulus increases. The lower price base and the gradual expenditure of fiscal funds may help repair the price side of corporate profits. The importance of domestic demand stimulus becomes prominent as the export elasticity may weaken and the external tariff policy environment faces uncertainties in August [2][28]. - In the third quarter, the existing domestic demand policies such as consumption and investment may be further strengthened, and the quantity factors may improve marginally. At the same time, the PPI base will be lower in the second half of the year. Coupled with the stimulus of domestic demand and the formation of project expenditures and physical work volume by previous fiscal funds, the drag of prices on corporate profits is also expected to narrow [28]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industry Perspective: Downstream Consumption Policy Support Catalyzes, while Upstream and Mid - stream Face Disturbances - **Upstream**: Mining industry profits are still under pressure, with most industries seeing an expansion of profit decline, but the energy supply industry continues to grow positively. For example, the profit decline of coal mining and washing, oil and gas extraction, and ferrous metal ore mining industries widened; the profit of non - ferrous metal ore mining industry increased, and the profit of the power, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased slightly [8][16]. - **Mid - stream**: Equipment manufacturing is better than material processing, and it continues to grow slightly. The pressure on the material processing industry persists, with the year - on - year decline expanding. The profit growth rate of mid - stream equipment manufacturing decreased, with the cumulative year - on - year growth rate at +0.1% [17]. - **Downstream**: There is a structural differentiation between essential and optional consumption, and the electronics equipment industry still performs strongly. The profit of essential consumption turned negative year - on - year, while the profit of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery and the beverage industry maintained growth. Most of the optional consumption industries had weak year - on - year profits, but the electronics equipment industry still performed well [18]. 3.2 Cost Side: Slight Increase in Expenses, Marginal Slight Improvement in Profit Margin - From January to May, the cost per 100 yuan of operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 85.61 yuan, an increase of 0.24 yuan year - on - year and 0.07 yuan compared to January - April. The expense per 100 yuan of operating income was 8.29 yuan, a decrease of 0.14 yuan year - on - year but an increase of 0.01 yuan compared to January - April, indicating a slowdown in the pace of cost reduction. The cumulative operating income profit margin from January to May was 4.97%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points year - on - year but an increase of 0.10 percentage points compared to January - April. Although the profit efficiency is still a drag compared to the same period last year, it has improved marginally [1][20]. 3.3 Inventory: Actual Inventory May Increase Passively - As of the end of May, the finished - product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.65 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year growth rate of 4.1%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points compared to the end of April, and the nominal inventory growth rate declined slightly. After considering price factors, the actual inventory growth rate after excluding PPI was 6.8%, an increase from 6.6% in April. Since the sales - to - production ratio slowed down in May, indicating weak actual demand recovery, the actual inventory may have increased passively. The turnover days of finished - product inventory from January to May were 20.8 days, an increase of 0.1 days year - on - year but a decrease of 0.2 days compared to January - April, indicating a slightly faster turnover rhythm. The average collection period of accounts receivable was 70.5 days, an increase of 3.7 days year - on - year but a decrease of 0.2 days compared to January - April, indicating that the policy of promoting the settlement of arrears has compressed the collection period [23].

Group 1 - On June 18, the total net inflow of industry-themed ETFs reached 1.042 billion yuan, with the total market size of 3.52 trillion yuan across 1,119 stock ETFs [1] - Notably, 14 stock ETFs had net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with the top performers being the Hang Seng Technology ETF and the Dividend Low Volatility ETF, each attracting over 300 million yuan [1] - The net inflow for ETFs tracking the Hong Kong Technology Index was 520 million yuan, while those tracking the Dividend and Non-Bank Financial Indexes saw inflows of 440 million yuan and 410 million yuan, respectively [1] Group 2 - Over the past five days, net inflows into the Sci-Tech 50 Index products exceeded 3.8 billion yuan, and the Hang Seng Technology Index products saw inflows over 2.7 billion yuan [2] - On June 18, the Huaxia Fund's Credit Bond ETF and Sci-Tech 50 ETF had net inflows of 2.923 billion yuan and 274 million yuan, respectively, with their latest sizes being 17.165 billion yuan and 81.987 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - On June 18, broad-based ETFs experienced slight outflows, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [3] - The low interest rate environment and weak economic recovery are seen as favorable for dividend strategies, with strong dividend capabilities from state-owned enterprises [3] - The performance of sectors such as precious metals and innovative pharmaceuticals is expected to remain relatively strong, despite potential inflationary pressures from increased tariffs [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant inflow of funds into industry-themed ETFs, with a total net inflow of 1.042 billion yuan on June 18, indicating strong investor interest in specific sectors [1]. Fund Inflows - On June 18, the total scale of 1,119 stock ETFs in the market reached 3.52 trillion yuan, with 14 ETFs experiencing net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan [1]. - The top performers included: - Hang Seng Technology ETF with a net inflow of 340 million yuan [2]. - Dividend Low Volatility ETF with a net inflow of 318 million yuan [2]. - Sci-Tech 50 ETF with a net inflow of 274 million yuan [2]. - Multiple broker and financial technology ETFs also saw inflows exceeding 150 million yuan [1][2]. Recent Trends - Over the past five days, the inflow into the Sci-Tech 50 index products exceeded 3.8 billion yuan, while the inflow into the Hang Seng Technology index products surpassed 2.7 billion yuan [3]. - Leading fund companies continue to see substantial inflows, with Huaxia Fund's credit bond ETF and Sci-Tech 50 ETF recording net inflows of 2.923 billion yuan and 274 million yuan respectively on June 18 [3]. Market Outlook - The article notes a slight outflow from broad-based ETFs on June 18, indicating potential market volatility [4]. - The low interest rate environment and weak economic recovery are seen as favorable for dividend strategies, with strong dividend capabilities from central state-owned enterprises [4]. - The article also mentions that sectors like precious metals and innovative pharmaceuticals are performing relatively well, with expectations that tariff impacts on A-shares will diminish over time [4].

>?@ABCDEFGHI2025-06-19 高聪 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 !"#$$%&'$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 !"#$%&"'( )*+,-2011.1289 /0 !"# 6 $%&'()*+,-./01 ——!"#$%&'&2 !"#$% 北京时间 2025 年 6 月 19 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 5 月利率决议，将利率维持在 4.25%- 4.50%。 （1）关税扰动、分歧加大：美联储本次会议释放出关税对通胀形成干扰、内部对降息 路径分歧加大的信号，显示政策转向更为谨慎和依赖数据。 （2）删除了对滞胀的担忧：美联储声明删除了关于失业和通胀同时上升的表述，显示 其对 "滞胀" 风险的担忧有所缓解，政策重心重新回归对通胀单一目标的观察与评估。 &'"( n !"# 6 $%&'()* +,-./0123 在 6 月 FOMC 会议中，美联储维持联邦基金利率在 4.25%-4.50%不变，连续第四次按兵 不动。尽管通胀依然高于 2%的目标， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the stock index is "Oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the stock index market declined due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, which increased global risk - aversion sentiment. European and American stock indices mostly fell, and A - share sentiment cooled down. This week, the stock index is still at a relatively over - valued position within the oscillation range and is expected to continue to bottom out. The impact of short - term foreign capital sentiment fluctuations on A - shares is limited, and there are no clear domestic trading events in the short term. The market will continue the decline trend under the characteristics of shrinking volume and low volatility, and it is recommended that investors mainly wait and see. The next breakthrough window may appear in early July, with attention paid to the new round of tariff disturbances caused by the expiration of Trump's 90 - day exemption policy and possible hedging policies from the domestic Politburo meeting. In the medium - to - long - term, the current discounts of IC and IM have reached the highest level in the past two years. The annualized discount rate of the current - quarter IC contract is 11 - 12%, and that of the IM contract is 15 - 16%. These two types of contracts can bring more substantial excess returns in the allocation level compared to index products such as ETFs, and it is still valuable and potential for long - term index investment investors to hold long positions [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Stock Market Information - The 2025 Lujiazui Forum will be held from June 18th to 19th, with the theme of "Financial Opening - up, Cooperation and High - quality Development in the Changing Global Economic Landscape". Central financial management department leaders will give speeches and release major financial policies. US President Trump's pressure on Iran makes the market speculate that the US may directly participate in Israel's attack on Iran [5] 3.2 Stock Index Disk Review - **Disk Tracking**: In the previous trading day, A - shares fluctuated narrowly. Among the four major indices, the Shanghai 50 Index fell 0.04%, the CSI 300 Index fell 0.09%, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.29%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.10%. The shipping (+2.44%) and energy equipment (+2.01%) sectors led the gains, while the office supplies (-3.45%) and soft drink (-2.80%) sectors lagged. More than 2,200 stocks rose, and 61 stocks hit the daily limit, with a poor profit - making effect [5] - **Technical Tracking**: After the previous oversold rebound, the stock indices generally approached the upper edge of the gap, with stronger pressure at the daily and weekly levels, and the monthly - line trend is still oscillating [5] - **Fund Flow**: Recently, the trading volume of A - shares has been hovering at a low level, staying at the 1.2 - trillion - yuan level yesterday. The short - term market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment and insufficient upward momentum [5] 3.3 Core Logic Summary - The decline in the stock index market last week was due to geopolitical conflicts. This week, the stock index is over - valued and may continue to decline. The impact of foreign capital is limited, and there are no clear trading events. The market will decline with shrinking volume and low volatility. The next breakthrough may be in early July. In the long - term, IC and IM contracts have high allocation value [3] 3.4 Operation Suggestions - **Futures Operation**: In the short term, it is recommended to mainly wait and see, with the lower support level seen at the position on April 9th. For monthly operations, maintain the idea of band trading [4] - **Option Operation**: The implied volatility of stock index options continues to flatten, with the weekly IV of the current - month at - the - money CSI 300 option remaining at 12 - 13%. Given the low - level oscillation of volatility, the cost of buying options during the waiting - for - breakthrough stage is expected to be high, and the premium recovered from selling options is limited. It is recommended to wait for the second wave of rising volatility before engaging in double - selling operations [4]

2025 年 6 月 18 日 总量研究 耐用品消费转弱，美国消费显著降温 ——2025 年 5 月美国零售数据点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 联系人：周欣平 010-57378026 zhouxinping@ebscn.com 相关研报 关税扰动显现，美国消费数据转弱—— 2025 年 4 月 美 国 零 售 数 据 点 评 （2025-05-16） 关税扰动导致美国消费节奏前置——2025 年 3 月美国零售数据点评（2025-04-17） 如何理解 2 月美国低于预期的消费数据？ — — 2025 年 2 月 美 国 零 售 数 据 点 评 （2025-03-18） 美国消费如期转弱，年内降息必要性增加 — — 2025 年 1 月 美 国 零 售 数 据 点 评 （2025-02-15） 美国消费转弱，年内仍存 2-3 次降息空间 — —2024 年 12 月 美 国零 售数据 点 评 （2025-01-17） 如何理解 11 月偏弱的美国核心消费数 据？——2024 年 11 月美国零售数据点 ...

Export Data Summary - In May, China's exports amounted to $316.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.8%, down from 8.1% in the previous month[1] - Imports totaled $212.9 billion, showing a decline of 3.4%, compared to a previous decline of 0.2%[1] - The trade surplus reached $103.2 billion, an increase from $96.18 billion in the previous month[1] Trade Dynamics - Tariff fluctuations have disrupted global trade, contributing to the decline in export growth[1] - The "grab export" effect has provided some resilience, with container throughput increasing by 1.4% month-on-month and 6.5% year-on-year in May[1] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant drop of 34.5% year-on-year, while exports to the EU increased by 12%[1][12] Sector Performance - Integrated circuits and automotive exports showed strong growth, with integrated circuits up 33.4% and automotive exports including chassis up 13.7%[3][19] - Labor-intensive product exports declined, with a notable drop in mobile phone exports by 23.2%[3][19] Future Outlook - The overall export growth for 2025 is projected to be around 1.5%, influenced by tariff impacts and global trade fragmentation[24] - Continued demand for Chinese products in ASEAN and EU markets is expected to support export resilience[25]

Core Viewpoint - CITIC Securities predicts that the US manufacturing PMI may continue to fluctuate below the growth line by mid-year, reflecting a broader trend in global manufacturing dynamics [1] Group 1: Global Manufacturing PMI Trends - In May 2025, the global manufacturing PMI index exhibited characteristics of "China's stability, emerging market divergence, European stabilization, and US decline" [1] - The easing of tariffs has provided a short-term boost to exports, but negative expectations for overseas markets are gradually becoming evident [1] Group 2: Regional Manufacturing PMI Insights - The Eurozone manufacturing PMI showed little change, indicating signs of temporary stabilization [1] - The US ISM manufacturing PMI index recorded 48.5 in May, characterized by "weak supply and demand, persistent inflation, a cooling job market, and a significant decline in foreign trade" [1] Group 3: Economic Impact and Forecast - The overall impact of tariff disruptions on the US and global macroeconomy is beginning to manifest, with expectations of a slight decline in US economic readings [1] - CITIC Securities anticipates that the US manufacturing PMI will likely remain below the growth line through mid-year [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Tariff disturbances intensify the pessimistic expectation of off - season demand, and the expectation of domestic incremental policies is weak. The short - term decline of carbon elements causes the collapse of the cost support of finished products, and the overall valuation decline of the black series drags down the iron ore price. Iron ore's short - term trading focus tends to trade strong reality + weak expectation. Demand has basically peaked but the decline slope is low, and the supply side continues to recover but may maintain a year - on - year decrease. It is expected that iron ore will remain relatively strong in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to whether the coking coal price stabilizes and whether the market sentiment can recover [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - The US imposing steel tariffs on the world yesterday intensified the pessimistic expectation of terminal demand, leading to a collective decline of the black series. Recently, the black series has been trading on the pessimistic demand expectation. With the expectation of increased supply of carbon elements, iron elements are relatively strong and the discount of the futures price to the spot price is higher than the historical average. Carbon elements are constantly conceding benefits to iron elements. The demand for iron ore has declined from the high level but is expected to remain relatively high, supporting the price [2] Supply - The current period's overseas ore shipments have rebounded month - on - month. Shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions have significantly rebounded, but the volume of Australian ore shipped to China has declined month - on - month. June is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to maintain a steady rebound in shipments, with the marginal support from the supply side weakening [2] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from the high level but is still in the high - level area. Hot metal production has declined for three consecutive weeks, with the current period at 241.91 (month - on - month - 1.69). Short - term demand has peaked, but the current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. It is expected that hot metal production will show an overall high - level decline trend with a relatively gentle downward slope. High demand is the core factor supporting the price [2] Inventory - The current domestic demand level is still relatively high. It is expected that the port inventory level will remain relatively stable or tend to be destocked in the first half of June. Overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the staged destocking at the high - inventory level is difficult to provide upward momentum [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The mid - term trend of the electrolytic aluminum market is a large - range consolidation. The Fed's potential delay in interest rate cuts in the second half of the year and the tense international situation restrict the upward space of aluminum prices, while the first cut of domestic 1 - year and 5 - year LPR this year supports aluminum prices. The supply - demand relationship remains strong overall, but tariff disturbances are significant, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the near term [4][12]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience a short - term decline followed by a rebound in the first week after the Dragon Boat Festival, but may face pressure around mid - June, with an overall expectation of a fluctuating market [12]. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is approaching the 45 million - ton ceiling, and the annual output growth is limited. The global primary aluminum output growth rate is only 1.9%. The demand in the aluminum industry shows a differentiated pattern among different sectors, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum is at a historically low level [9][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The mid - term trend is a large - range consolidation. The Fed's potential delay in interest rate cuts to July and December and the tense international situation restrict the upward space of aluminum prices, while the domestic LPR cut supports prices. The supply - demand relationship is strong overall, but tariff disturbances are large, and the market is expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000, and short - term trading within the range of 19,500 - 20,500 is appropriate [4]. 3.2 Variety Trading Strategy - **Last Week's Strategy Review**: For the SHFE aluminum 2507 contract, maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000, with an expected range of 19,800 - 20,500. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [6]. - **This Week's Strategy Suggestion**: For the SHFE aluminum 2507 contract, continue to maintain the view of consolidation around 20,000. It is advisable to wait and see or conduct short - band trading [7]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: It is advisable to purchase and stock up as needed [8]. 3.3 Overall View 3.3.1 Supply - related - **Bauxite Market**: The short - term supply of domestic bauxite will remain tight. The impact of the rainy season in Guinea is gradually emerging, and the bauxite shipment volume from Guinea is expected to decline significantly from June [9]. - **Alumina Market**: As of May 29, the total built - in capacity of national metallurgical alumina is 110.82 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 86.67 million tons/year. The weekly national alumina operating rate increased by 0.19 percentage points to 78.21% due to the end of some enterprises' overhauls, but the operating capacity is still at a low level [9]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In May, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is expected to remain at a high level. The second - batch capacity replacement project of an aluminum plant from Shandong to Yunnan is expected to start in the third quarter, and the first - batch project is expected to achieve output in May. The global primary aluminum output growth rate is only 1.9% [9]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is about 1,000 yuan/ton, and the order growth due to pre - export rush at the end of May is not obvious [9]. 3.3.2 Demand - related - **Aluminum Profiles**: The national profile operating rate increased by 1 percentage point to 57% this week. The building materials sector is supported by infrastructure project orders in the north, but some small and medium - sized enterprises in the north and south report limited infrastructure orders. The operating rate of photovoltaic frame sample enterprises shows a differentiated pattern [11]. - **Aluminum Plate, Strip and Foil**: The operating rate of leading aluminum plate and strip enterprises remained stable at 67.6%. The operating rate of leading aluminum foil enterprises remained stable at 71.6%. The short - term operating rate of the aluminum foil industry is expected to rise slightly [11]. - **Aluminum Cables and Wires**: The operating rate of leading aluminum cable and wire enterprises remained stable at 64.8%. The follow - up operating rate is expected to remain within a certain range [11]. - **Alloys**: The operating rate of leading primary aluminum alloy enterprises remained stable at 54.6%. The operating rate of leading recycled aluminum enterprises decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 53.0%, and the subsequent operating rate may continue to decline weakly [11]. 3.3.3 Inventory - related - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: The latest social inventory of aluminum ingots is 509,000 tons, a decrease of about 8% from last week and about 35% lower than the same period last year, at a low level since 2017. The aluminum rod inventory is 126,000 tons, a decrease of about 1% from last week and about 43% lower than the same period last year. The LME electrolytic aluminum inventory has been declining since May 2024 and is currently at a low level since 1990 [11]. 3.3.4 Profit and Market Expectation - **Alumina Profit**: The average cash cost of the Chinese alumina industry is about 2,600 yuan/ton, and the profit is about 700 yuan/ton [12]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Profit**: The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 17,800 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit is about 2,300 yuan/ton [12]. - **Market Expectation**: The social inventory of aluminum ingots is expected to continue to decline, but the trading atmosphere may weaken. The international situation may affect the overseas aluminum price and then the domestic spot aluminum price. Next week, the spot aluminum price is expected to fluctuate, and the trading range of electrolytic aluminum futures is 19,800 - 20,200 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4 Important Industrial Link Price Changes - The prices of some bauxite varieties remained unchanged this week, while the price of alumina in Henan increased by 2.95% week - on - week. The price of ice晶石 increased by 9.11% week - on - week, and the price of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased by 0.42% week - on - week [13]. 3.5 Important Industrial Link Inventory Changes - Domestic bauxite port inventory has increased for 7 consecutive weeks, and it is expected that the arrival of aluminum ore at ports may decrease from June. Alumina inventory continued to decline slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum and related products such as aluminum ingots and aluminum rods is at a low level, and the LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [15][17]. 3.6 Supply - Demand Situation - For the whole year of 2025, domestic production growth is limited, and the import impact is weakened due to the inverted theoretical import profit. Domestic supply - demand is expected to tighten compared to 2024, but there is a high probability of becoming looser again in the seasonal off - season of June and July [18]. 3.7 Futures - Spot Structure - **SHFE Aluminum Futures Price Curve**: The current SHFE aluminum futures price structure is neutral to strong. Under the situation of low inventory and pre - export rush expectation, the spot price supports the futures price [31]. - **SHFE Aluminum Futures Price Monthly Seasonality**: From the statistical data of the past 10 years, the probability of rise and fall in May and June is relatively balanced. After the Dragon Boat Festival, the market may fluctuate slightly in the first week, but may face pressure around mid - June, with an overall expectation of a fluctuating market [35]. 3.8 Spread Structure - The LME (0 - 3) discount is 5.75 US dollars/ton. The A00 aluminum ingot spot reported a premium of 110 yuan/ton. The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 is about - 2,260 yuan/ton this week [37][42]. 3.9 Market Fund Situation - **LME Aluminum Variety Fund Trends**: The latest net long position remained stable, and both the long and short camps increased their positions. The short - term market may be in a consolidation phase [45]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum Variety Fund Trends**: The net short position remained stable this week, and both the long and short camps increased their positions, indicating increased market divergence. The short - term direction is not clear, and the market is expected to fluctuate [48].