瑞达期货研究院 「2026.2.13」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周集体上涨，科创50涨幅最大超3%。四期指表现分化，中小盘股 强于大盘蓝筹股，从涨幅看IM>IC>IF>IH。本周为春节假期前最后一个交易周，周一受上周 美股科技股反弹影响，股指跳空高开；周二至周四，除1月通胀数据外，市场消息面平淡， 股指呈现整理态势；周五，受到即将到来的春节假期影响，投资者情绪较为谨慎，多持观望 态度，股指回落，尾盘加速下行。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周进一步回落。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | -0.23 | -1.92 | 4627.0 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience a "red envelope" effect post-Spring Festival, with historical data showing a higher probability of gains after the holiday [1][6][7] - Various institutions suggest holding stocks during the holiday to capitalize on post-holiday capital inflows and policy catalysts, while some recommend a cautious approach with light positions to manage volatility [1][6] - Historical trends indicate that the A-share market tends to favor high-dividend, defensive sectors before the holiday, with a shift towards small-cap and growth sectors after [7][12] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs predicts a 20% increase in the MSCI China Index by the end of 2026, driven primarily by earnings growth supported by AI, overseas expansion, and anti-involution policies [3] - Five major capital flows are expected to support the market, including record net inflows from southbound funds, domestic asset reallocation, and significant share buybacks [3] - Foreign institutions anticipate a gradual diversification away from USD assets towards Chinese markets over the next 3 to 5 years, highlighting China's complete industrial chain and strong innovation capabilities [4] Group 3 - The average performance of the Shanghai Composite Index in the ten trading days following the Spring Festival is better than in the first five days, indicating a warming trend in the market [6][7] - Analysts emphasize the importance of the last trading day before the holiday as a key window for positioning, with expectations of a trend reversal starting in the last five trading days before the holiday [12] - The current market environment suggests a focus on both cyclical and growth sectors, with a recommendation to maintain a balanced portfolio that includes resource assets like gold [9][10]

从油价走势关联到油气产业，石油产业链主要分为上游的勘探、开采、生产，以及下游的炼化环节，若通过指数对油气产业进行布局，产业链的上中下 游其实都会涉及到。整体来看，当下布局石油板块的股票，相当于买入油价的看涨期权。原因在于，无论是上游的开采环节，还是炼化、油服设备、油 运等领域，都会受到油价上涨的整体情绪提振，市场对各环节的未来表现也会形成向好预期。从康波周期来看，正如刚才所说，在这一商品大周期中， 原油价格相对滞涨，整个油气产业都在紧盯油价的上行趋势，筹备进一步的产业投资，同时对后续盈利改善抱有期待。此外，无论是投资者还是产业 端，都对原油供给过剩的叙事真实性存有一定怀疑，这也让石油产业链的上中下游都显现出一定的投资机会。 再看中证油气产业指数的历史表现，该指数自基日以来，业绩表现跑赢市场主流同类指数，尤其在行业景气上行周期，具备较强的上涨弹性。2008年、 2014年的行业周期中，该指数的上行弹性均优于其他同类指数，能为投资者带来更好的投资体验。需要注意的是，指数的过往业绩不代表未来表现，投 资者需谨慎选择投资标的。 | 指数代码 | 指数简称 | 近五年 | 近三年 | 近一年 | | --- | --- ...

Financial Performance - Shentong Express reported Q3 2025 revenue of 13.546 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.62% [1] - Net profit for the same period was 302 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 40.32% [1] - The growth was primarily driven by the industry's "anti-involution" policy, which improved single-ticket prices, and the consolidation of Daniao Logistics starting from November 2025 [1] Recent Events - On February 6, 2026, Shentong Express announced a change in general manager, with Wang Wenbin promoted to vice chairman and Han Yongyan taking over as general manager [2] - A legal dispute involving the company's actual controller, Chen Xiaoying, has arisen due to a divorce property settlement, potentially affecting 2.65% of shares (approximately 40.56 million shares) [2] - The company announced a tiered price increase for personal parcels during the Spring Festival period (February 14-20, 2026), with the first weight surcharge of 2-3 yuan per ticket and additional weight surcharges of 0.3-1.5 yuan per kilogram [2] Stock Performance - Over the past 7 days (as of February 12, 2026), Shentong Express's stock price has shown a slight decline of 0.15%, with a price of 12.98 yuan [3] - The stock has a technical resistance level at 13.91 yuan and a support level at 12.46 yuan, with recent MACD indicators showing a positive trend but overall moving averages indicating a bearish pattern [3] - On February 12, 2026, there was a net outflow of 10.69 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors showed slight inflows, indicating cautious market sentiment [3] Institutional Insights - Huachuang Securities noted that the express delivery industry is experiencing a continued differentiation, with Shentong's business volume growth reaching 11.09% in December due to the merger with Daniao Logistics, increasing its market share to 13.7% [4] - Analysts are optimistic about profit recovery for leading companies under the "anti-involution" policy, predicting a 31.25% year-on-year increase in Shentong's net profit for 2025, with a target price of 19 yuan, representing a potential upside of 45.9% from the current price [4]

中新网北京2月12日电毕马威近日发布2026年第一季度《中国经济观察》报告(下称"报告")。报告指 出，2025年中国经济实现顺利收官，但结构上呈现供需分化、内外需分化、新旧动能表现分化以及宏观 数据与微观体感之间的分化。2026年国内经济增速将维持稳健，供需分化格局有望加速弥合。报告从产 出、消费、出口等方面展开分析。 在产出方面，在工业企业出口需求旺盛、国内设备更新政策推进背景下，2025年制造业增加值总体同比 增长6.1%。与此同时，人工智能技术快速发展及资本市场表现回暖，带动信息技术、金融等服务业保 持较快增长，使得第三产业增速再度超过第二产业。展望2026年，"两重"项目在年初集中开工、"两 新"补贴在年初迎来首轮发放，有望带动上游原材料、下游消费品生产回升。 在消费方面，伴随悦己消费趋势的持续升温，居民消费结构加速向品质化、体验化转型，金银珠宝、化 妆品、服装鞋帽等消费增速温和回升，同时服务消费保持较强韧性。展望2026年，以旧换新政策将延续 实施并更加注重精准施策，重点向绿色消费、智能消费、银发消费等消费升级方向倾斜。 在出口方面，2025年中国外贸在复杂外部环境下实现稳量提质，贸易顺差创下历史 ...

近期，经济运行仍处在修复过程中，结构性特征逐步显现，债券市场的讨论也持续展开。在这种背景 下，华商鸿裕利率债债券基金经理杜钧天在基金定期报告中结合宏观环境变化，阐述了债券市场的运行 逻辑。 杜钧天 华商鸿裕利率债债券基金经理 华商鸿益一年定期开放债券发起式基金经理 华商鸿源三个月定开纯债债券基金经理 杜钧天，具有10.6年证券从业经历，其中1.5年证券交易经历，1.8年证券研究经历，6.6年证券投资经 历。2024年4月加入华商基金管理有限公司，现任华商鸿裕利率债债券、华商鸿益一年定期开放债券发 起式、华商鸿畅39个月定期开放利率债债券、华商鸿源三个月定开纯债债券的基金经理。 他在基金定期报告中回顾道，自四季度以来，国内宏观经济表现出弱稳的态势，全年GDP增速逐季回 落，而通胀修复则呈现出结构性特征。内需和信贷数据表明，居民部门仍是经济中的短板，尽管如此， 债券市场对明年经济增长和通胀的预期有所改善，这一现象并未因短板而受到显著压制。反而，由于政 策的积极变化，市场的信心得到了提振。 杜钧天指出，政府的"反内卷政策"通过减少无效竞争并推动供给端价格的稳定，尤其是在部分工业品价 格方面，为价格提供了相对清晰的政 ...

Regulatory Situation - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a regulatory letter to the company on December 5, 2025, due to violations in corporate governance, insider information management, and financial accounting, requiring the company and responsible individuals to rectify the issues. The subsequent rectification may impact market confidence [2] Industry Policy Status - On January 16, 2026, the company responded to inquiries on its investor platform, indicating that the exit of Dow Chemical from production capacity may improve the global supply-demand balance of organic silicon. Additionally, domestic "anti-involution" policies could have a positive impact on the business. The Longshan Gold Mine project is still in the detailed exploration phase [3] Fund Movements - The company plans to use no more than 300 million yuan of idle self-owned funds to purchase financial products (including bank wealth management and trusts), with the authorization period extending until the end of 2026. This matter has been approved by the board of directors and is pending approval from the shareholders' meeting [4] Performance and Operating Conditions - The company stated that details regarding the operation of organic silicon products for 2025 will be disclosed in the annual report, which is expected to be published in the first half of 2026 [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector has adjusted significantly and then repaired, with differentiated trends. After the adjustment pressure is fully released, it can still be mainly long - biased on dips according to the strength of fundamentals [13]. - This week, attention should be paid to the rare simultaneous release of non - farm payrolls and CPI in the US due to the short - term government shutdown. In China, the January social financing and inflation data will be released to verify the "good start" of the economy. Additionally, the US and Iran plan to hold a new round of negotiations [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Non - ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions Macro Logic - The non - ferrous metals market is generally volatile, with the holiday atmosphere becoming stronger and trading turning lighter. There is still volatility despite capital leaving the market as the holiday approaches. The market narrative has shifted from confidence in synchronous growth and abundant liquidity to uncertainties brought by volatility, a weak labor market, and AI - driven disruptions. The Middle East situation remains unstable, and there is still a possibility of fluctuations in overseas commodities during the holiday [12]. - China's January CPI year - on - year increase fell to 0.2%, and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed to 1.4%. Before the important non - farm payroll report, the White House gave a "pre - warning", indicating that employment growth may be lower than expected. US retail sales in December unexpectedly stagnated month - on - month, showing weak consumption at the end of the holiday season [12]. Investment Suggestions for Each Variety | Variety | Operating Logic | Support Area | Pressure Area | Market Judgment | Strategy | Recommendation Intensity | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | Multiple factors including weak US retail data, dovish Fed stance, potential large - scale downward revision of non - farm payrolls, strategic reserve plan by Trump, and domestic macro - logic. Supply is currently strong but may decline in February due to the holiday, and demand is in a seasonal off - peak. | 98000 - 99000 | 108000 - 110000 | Oscillating upward | Buy on dips | +1 | | Zinc | Dollar adjustment, overseas gas price decline, and uncertainties in Iran negotiations. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening. | 23800 - 24000 | 25000 - 25500 | Phase adjustment | Buy on dips | +0.5 | | Aluminum Industry Chain | For aluminum, there are new capacity releases and changes in demand in different sectors. For alumina, production capacity is increasing. For recycled aluminum alloy, there are both cost - support weakening and some positive factors. | Aluminum: 22000 - 22300; Alumina: 2300 - 2600; Recycled Aluminum Alloy: 21000 - 21500 | Aluminum: 26000 - 27000; Alumina: 2900 - 3000; Recycled Aluminum Alloy: 24000 - 26000 | Aluminum: Oscillating consolidation; Alumina: Oscillating weakly; Cast Aluminum Alloy: Oscillating consolidation | Wait and see | +0.5/ - 0.5/ +0.5 | | Tin | Supply is affected by factors such as tight raw materials and approaching holidays. Demand shows a downward trend in some sectors. | 330000 - 350000 | 450000 - 460000 | Oscillating consolidation | Wait and see | +0.5 | | Lead | Supply is increasing slightly, and demand is weak. The market is affected by holiday factors and inventory changes. | 16400 - 16500 | 17000 - 17300 | Range - bound rebound | Buy on dips | +0.5 | | Nickel | Affected by geopolitical factors, Indonesian policy adjustments, and changes in supply and demand. | 125000 - 128000 | 13800 - 140000 | Phase adjustment | Buy on dips | +1 | | Stainless Steel | Affected by Indonesian policies, cost changes, and seasonal supply - demand patterns. | 12800 - 13000 | 13800 - 14000 | Phase adjustment | Buy on dips | +1 | [14][15][16][17][18] 3.2 Second Part: Non - ferrous Metals Market Review | Variety | Closing Price | Change Percentage | | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 102180 | 0.61% | | Zinc | 24585 | 0.53% | | Aluminum | 23660 | 0.62% | | Alumina | 2842 | 0.25% | | Tin | 394700 | 3.32% | | Lead | 16740 | 0.45% | | Nickel | 139360 | 4.51% | | Stainless Steel | 14040 | 2.18% | | Cast Aluminum Alloy | 22205 | 0.38% | [19] 3.3 Third Part: Non - ferrous Metals Position Analysis The analysis includes various non - ferrous metals futures contracts, showing information such as price changes, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position base values, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors [20]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Spot Market The report provides spot prices and price change percentages of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, nickel, stainless steel, tin, lead, and cast aluminum alloy [22]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Industry Chain It presents multiple charts related to the industry chain of each non - ferrous metal, such as inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends [23][25][29][36][44][48][51][55]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - ferrous Metals Arbitrage It shows various charts for arbitrage analysis of different non - ferrous metals, including price ratios and basis spreads [58][59][61][65][69][71]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - ferrous Metals Options It provides charts related to option historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume, open interest, and the ratio of call to put open interest for different non - ferrous metals [75][76][77][79][82].

Inflation Data Summary - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year growth was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.4% and down from 0.8% in the previous month[1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 0.8% year-on-year, down from 1.2% previously, while the month-on-month growth was 0.3%[1] - The PPI year-on-year change was -1.4%, better than the expected -1.5% and improved from -1.9% in the previous month[1] Structural Changes in Price Index - The new weight distribution for the CPI shows a shift towards services, with food and beverage (29.5%), housing (22.1%), and transportation and communication (14.3%) being the largest categories[2] - The weight of pork in the food category was increased from 1.4% to 1.9%, enhancing its contribution to CPI[2] - The average impact of the base period switch on CPI and PPI year-on-year was only 0.06 and 0.08 percentage points, respectively, ensuring continuity in price statistics[2] Seasonal and Structural Influences - January's CPI month-on-month performance was weaker than seasonal trends, recording only 0.2% due to the late timing of the 2026 Spring Festival[3] - Food prices were a significant drag on the index, with fresh vegetable prices dropping 4.8% month-on-month, while pork prices rose 1.2%[4] - Core CPI showed strength, driven by rising gold prices and the effects of "anti-involution" and "national subsidy" policies, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3%[4] PPI Recovery and Market Signals - The PPI month-on-month growth accelerated to 0.4%, up from 0.1-0.2% in the previous quarter, indicating a structural recovery in industrial prices[6] - The broadening of price increases across 30 major industries, with 13 showing month-on-month increases, suggests improving profitability expectations in the manufacturing sector[8] - The report anticipates a potential rise in CPI to around 1.0% in February due to the Spring Festival purchasing effect, while PPI is expected to remain around -1.4% year-on-year[9]

CPI Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI year-on-year growth rate dropped to +0.2%, down from +0.8% in the previous month, and below the market expectation of +0.4%[2] - The food prices decreased by 0.7% year-on-year, compared to an increase of 1.1% in the previous month, contributing to a decline of 0.32 percentage points in CPI[4] - The core CPI year-on-year growth rate fell to +0.8%, down from +1.2% in the previous month, influenced by the Spring Festival timing[5] PPI Analysis - The PPI month-on-month growth rate increased to +0.4% in January 2026, up from +0.2% in the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month of increase[6] - The year-on-year PPI decline narrowed to -1.4%, a reduction of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month[6] - The prices in the non-ferrous metal mining sector rose by 5.7% month-on-month, driven by international price increases[6] Market Outlook - The upward trend in CPI is expected to continue, supported by rising raw material prices affecting durable consumer goods[3] - The central government's focus on regulating pig production capacity is anticipated to lead to a moderate improvement in pork prices in the second half of the year, supporting CPI readings[3] - The PPI is projected to turn positive year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, influenced by global commodity price increases and domestic policy adjustments[11]