Geopolitical Conflicts - The escalation of the Middle East conflict led to a 1.8% increase in Brent crude oil prices, despite concerns over oversupply and weak demand[4] - Israel's airstrike on Qatar was described as a "precision strike" against Hamas leaders, with potential implications for U.S.-Qatar relations[10] - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict saw Poland shoot down a drone allegedly from Russia, raising tensions in the region[15] U.S.-China Trade Relations - The fourth round of U.S.-China trade talks is scheduled from September 14-17 in Spain, focusing on unilateral tariffs and export controls[17] - The U.S. Commerce Department added several Chinese entities to the export control "entity list," indicating ongoing trade tensions[17] - Trump's administration is pressuring the EU and NATO to impose significant tariffs (50-100%) on Russian oil buyers, contingent on their cooperation[16] Economic Indicators - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.5% this week, while the Shenzhen Component increased by 2.6%[6] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a 1.0% increase, and the S&P 500 rose by 1.6%[6] - Brent crude oil is currently priced at $66.88 per barrel, reflecting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine[6] Federal Reserve and Tariff Issues - The U.S. Supreme Court will expedite the review of the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, with oral arguments scheduled for early November[22] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is under scrutiny, with a court ruling temporarily blocking the dismissal of a Fed official[22] - Ongoing investigations into tariffs on various sectors, including pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, are expected to influence future trade negotiations[22]

9月12日，国内期市能化板块涨跌不一。其中，燃料油期货主力合约开盘报2765.00元/吨，今日盘中低 位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，燃料油主力最高触及2770.00元，下方探低2712.00元，跌幅达2.58%。 新湖期货指出，整体来看，发电转弱的逻辑已被计价，目前高硫的关注点主要是供应端，虽然俄出口下 降，但新加坡库存创新高，短期基本面驱动不强，建议持续关注地缘冲突和美国制裁的最新动态。 西南期货分析称，市场持续关注燃料油供应充足的现象，美国对俄罗斯制裁的担忧增加，燃料油价格走 势较强。策略方面，做缩高低硫燃料油价差。 目前来看，燃料油行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于燃料油后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 国投期货安信表示，隔夜国际油价回落，布伦特11合约跌1.9%。昨日IEA发布9月石油市场报告，对年 内供应预期的上调幅度大于需求，市场过剩幅度进一步增加，且我们预计压力集中在四季度及明年一季 度体现。原油市场的交易逻辑仍在中期过剩压力与短期地缘扰动间切换，但每次反弹空间愈发受限，策 略方面仍以此前高位空单与虚值看涨期权相结合的策略为主。 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 供给过剩压力上升，油价趋势向下。EIA 最新数据显示，美国商业原油和 | | 原油 | | 成品油库存上升，SPR 累库量增快，消费旺季结束，需求端支撑减弱；供 | | ★★ | 看空 | 需方面，9 月 7 日，OPEC+继续扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价 | | | | 下行压力较大，供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡 | | | | 点。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本端拖累，液化气上方承压。成本端原油需求下降供给增加，供给过剩 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 压力上升，仍有下探空间；LPG 估值修复，主力合约基差处于正常水平； | | ★ | | PDH 开工率环比下降，但需求尚可，开工率超过 70%；供给端和库存变化 | | | | 不大，偏中性。策略：轻仓试空。 | | | | 仓单大幅增加，产业套保施压，盘面增仓破位下跌。期现齐跌，基差小幅 | | L | | 走强。基本面短期供需矛盾并不突出，但对后续市场偏悲观，上行驱动不 | | | 空头延续 | 足。本周产量下 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict is intensifying, increasing the potential supply risk of LPG. The supply of propylene plants is fluctuating, leading to higher spot transactions [1]. Detailed Summaries by Sections Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,462 with a daily increase of 1.34% and a night - session price of 4,444 with a decrease of 0.40%. PG2511 closed at 4,414 with a daily increase of 1.38% and a night - session price of 4,402 with a decrease of 0.27%. PL2601 closed at 6,408 with a daily increase of 0.09% and a night - session price of 6,418 with an increase of 0.16%. PL2602 closed at 6,453 with a daily increase of 0.28% and a night - session price of 6,451 with a decrease of 0.03% [1]. - **LPG Position and Trading Volume**: For PG2510, the trading volume was 92,077, an increase of 31,859 from the previous day, and the position was 69,115, an increase of 3,817. For PG2511, the trading volume was 32,932, an increase of 10,261, and the position was 45,311, an increase of 3,465. For PL2601, the trading volume was 2,801, an increase of 215, and the position was 10,329, an increase of 331. For PL2602, the trading volume was 18, a decrease of 8, and the position was 887, an increase of 1 [1]. - **LPG Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and PG10 contract was not given, while the previous day's spread was 117. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and PG10 contract was 88, compared with 217 the previous day. The spreads between Shandong, East China, and South China propylene and PL01 contract were 267, 192, and 67 respectively, compared with 223, 173, and 23 the previous day [1]. - **Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate was 73.1%, slightly up from 73.0% the previous week. The MTBE operating rate was 62.2%, down from 63.5%. The alkylation operating rate was 44.5%, down from 46.8% [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG and propylene is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [5]. Market Information - **CP Paper Goods**: On September 10, 2025, the October CP paper goods for propane were at 550 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton from the previous trading day, and for butane were at 523 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars/ton. The November CP paper goods for propane were at 559 dollars/ton, up 4 dollars/ton [6]. - **Domestic PDH Plant Maintenance Plans**: Multiple companies have PDH plant maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. (15 units since May 12, 2023, end date pending), and many others with various start and end times [7]. - **Domestic LPG Plant Maintenance Plans**: Many LPG plants have maintenance plans, such as Zhenghe Petrochemical (Shandong, full - plant maintenance since May 14, 2024, end date pending), and others with different durations and production losses [8].

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 09 月 07 日 关注多国国内政治不确定性 ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：上合组织峰会；中国人民抗日战争胜利纪念日；乌克兰战后安全保 障进展；美国关税进展；日本首相辞职。 未来一周：法国国民议会投票；美国国内政治及关税政策；地缘冲突。 | | | | 国际时政日历 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | | 9/1 | 9/2 | 9/3 | ald | વીર્ટ | ale | 9/7 | | 上合组织峰会于天津 | | 中国人民抗日战争胜 | 当地时间9月4日欧洲 | 当地时间9月4日特朗 | 特朗普此前威胁的俄 | 日本首相石破茂宣布 | | | | 利纪念日 | 国家会晤于法国,26 | 普签令履行美日关税 | 乌直接会晤截止期 | 辞去自民党总裁职务 | | | | | 国承诺将"在停火或 | 协议 | | | | | | | 和平协议框架下"向 | | | | | | | | 乌克兰部署军队 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Spot freight rates are continuously falling, near - month contracts are declining, and the market is in the bottom - building process with large recent fluctuations. It is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - losses should be set [2]. - Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. [5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Content Freight Rate Index - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [3]. - On August 29, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [3]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, with the composite PMI rising for three consecutive months and reaching the highest since May 2024 [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - The preliminary values of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI and Markit manufacturing PMI in August were both 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high; the service PMI was 55.4 [4]. Market Strategy - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to take a light - position trial long at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase positions at around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, do not hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5]. - Arbitrage strategy: Given the volatile international situation, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines or make light - position attempts [5]. - Long - term strategy: It is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5]. Contract Information - On September 4, the main contract 2510 closed at 1300.7, down 1.77%, with a trading volume of 25,800 lots and an open interest of 50,000 lots, a decrease of 1983 lots from the previous day [5]. - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18%, the company's margin is adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5]. Geopolitical Events - On September 4, the Houthi armed forces launched a military operation against Israel, targeting Ben - Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv with a "Zulfiqar" ballistic missile, which hit the target [5]. - On September 3, the Israeli Defense Forces and the Shin Bet announced that they had killed a leader of the "Jihad Brigades" in the Gaza Strip [5].

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced weak fluctuations on September 3, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices collectively retreating, while sectors such as power equipment, new energy, media, and pharmaceuticals saw gains [1] - The gold ETF (159834.SZ) rose by 1.28% as of 1:30 PM, indicating a positive market sentiment towards gold investments [1] - The long-term allocation logic for gold ETFs is supported by concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve and easing inflation data, which strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September, potentially boosting gold prices [1] Group 2 - Global geopolitical conflicts and ongoing trade friction risks enhance the safe-haven appeal of gold, leading to sustained demand [1] - The trend of global central banks purchasing gold continues, providing structural support for gold prices due to ample long-term allocation momentum [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the U.S. election cycle is expected to increase market volatility, further enhancing the attractiveness of gold as a risk-averse asset [1] Group 3 - The gold sector benefits from an upward shift in price levels and the logic of resource scarcity, alongside deepening expectations of global monetary easing, which enhances the asset allocation value of gold [1] - In the context of intensified short-term competition in industrial and energy metals, the gold ETF (159834.SZ) is prioritized as a tool that combines liquidity and defensiveness [1]

Group 1 - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed results on September 3, with Shanghai gold futures at 814.64 CNY per gram, up 1.29%, and Shanghai silver futures at 9825.00 CNY per kilogram, down 0.10% [1] - International precious metal futures also displayed mixed performance, with COMEX gold priced at 3600.80 USD per ounce, up 0.04%, while COMEX silver was at 41.65 USD per ounce, down 0.19% [1] - The opening prices for Shanghai gold and silver were 804.42 CNY and 9766.00 CNY per kilogram, respectively, with their highest prices reaching 816.78 CNY and 9864.00 CNY [2] Group 2 - Overnight, European and American stock markets declined, with major tech stocks falling due to uncertainties regarding tariffs and rising long-term U.S. Treasury yields, which negatively impacted high-valuation tech stocks [3] - The COMEX gold futures broke the 3600 USD mark, reaching a new high, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and increased geopolitical tensions, which heightened safe-haven demand for gold [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The macro - sentiment is generally stable, and the market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate cut in September. Geopolitical factors are bullish, and OPEC+ is likely to keep the production policy unchanged after October. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [1][2]. - For asphalt, the short - term price is mainly volatile, with strong cost support and a slight decline in supply at the beginning of September, driving the industry chain to continue destocking [3][4]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in Asia, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is less than expected. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuous decline in spot premium, with increasing supply and no specific demand drivers [5][6]. - PX prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with the start - up rate increasing in Asia and the downstream PTA having a restart plan in the fourth quarter, and there is still an expectation of destocking [8][9]. - PTA's September start - up rate will be repaired upwards, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [11][12]. - Ethylene glycol's overall start - up rate will increase at a high level in September, and the visible inventory is expected to rise in the middle and late September [13][14]. - Short - fiber prices follow the raw materials, and the short - fiber processing fee is expected to be supported with some factories having production reduction plans in September [15]. - Polyester bottle - chip prices are expected to be volatile, with relatively abundant supply and the downstream demand transitioning from peak to off - peak season [18]. - Pure benzene prices are expected to be volatile, with an expected increase in port inventory and lack of upward drivers in the supply - demand side. Styrene still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation [19][21]. - Propylene prices are expected to be volatile in the short term, with the market tending to be loose overall and strong support from the upstream raw material end [22][23]. - Plastic PP prices are expected to be volatile and weak, with new production capacity expected to be put into operation and the peak - season demand likely to be weak [24][25]. - PVC prices are still under pressure, with weak supply - demand reality and expectations. Caustic soda's medium - term supply - demand expectation is still favorable, but there is large near - end game [29]. - Soda ash prices are expected to be weak in the short term, with increasing supply and weakening macro - drive [32]. - Glass prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, with stable supply and uncertain demand improvement [34][35]. - Methanol prices should be shorted on rallies, with increasing supply and high port inventory [36][37]. - Urea prices are expected to be volatile, with the domestic supply being loose and the demand showing a downward trend, but the Indian tender has a certain support for the market [38]. - Double - offset paper production is difficult to increase significantly, with weak demand and limited cost support [40][41]. - Log prices are in a weak balance in the short term, and the medium - and long - term market needs to pay attention to supply and demand changes [42][43]. - Pulp prices can be lightly tested for long positions in the SP11 contract [45][46]. - BR prices should hold short positions in the BR10 contract, and natural rubber should hold long positions in the RU01 contract [49][52]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2510 contract settled at $65.59, up $1.58/barrel, +2.47% month - on - month; Brent2511 contract settled at $69.14, up $0.99/barrel, +1.45% month - on - month [1]. - **Related News**: Trump will ask the Supreme Court for a quick ruling on the tariff case, and he also called for a "substantial" interest rate cut by the Fed. The US manufacturing PMI in August rose slightly to 48.7 but was still below the boom - bust line [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - sentiment is stable, geopolitical factors are bullish, and OPEC+ is likely to keep the production policy unchanged after October. Oil prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate at a high level, with the Brent contract operating in the range of $68.5 - $69.5/barrel [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2510 closed at 3549 points at night (- 0.06%), and BU2512 closed at 3492 points at night (+0.00%). The spot price in Shandong rose by 30 yuan/ton, and that in South China rose by 10 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: In the Shandong market, the increase in crude oil and futures prices boosted market sentiment, and the terminal demand was relatively stable. In the Yangtze River Delta market, the supply increased slightly, and the inventory was at a medium - low level. In the South China market, the price was slightly pushed up due to improved market sentiment and demand [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term price is mainly volatile, with strong cost support and a slight decline in supply at the beginning of September, driving the industry chain to continue destocking [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and strong; for the spread, the asphalt - crude oil spread is volatile; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU01 contract closed at 2830 at night (- 0.39%), and LU11 closed at 3530 at night (- 0.34%). The high - sulfur Sep/Oct spread in the Singapore paper - cargo market was $0.8/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct spread was $2.38/ton [5]. - **Related News**: The Dangote refinery in Nigeria exported the first batch of gasoline to North America at the end of August, and the RFCC unit resumed operation on August 22. There were no transactions in the Singapore spot window on September 2 [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has high supply and inventory in Asia, and the supply pressure in the third quarter is less than expected. Low - sulfur fuel oil has a continuous decline in spot premium, with increasing supply and no specific demand drivers [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be weakly volatile; for the spread, pay attention to the short - term contango opportunity for low - sulfur fuel oil [8]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX2511 main contract fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 6834 during the day (- 32/- 0.47%) and 6862 at night (+28/+0.41%). The PX spot price was estimated at $846/ton, down $2/ton month - on - month [8]. - **Related News**: A factory in East China postponed the restart of its PX and PTA units. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical conflicts and US sanctions on some oil - producing countries pushed up oil prices. The Asian PX start - up rate continued to increase, and the downstream PTA had a restart plan in the fourth quarter, with an expectation of destocking [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile at a high level; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [11]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA601 main contract fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 4756 during the day (- 16/- 0.34%) and 4766 at night (+10/+0.21%). The PTA spot basis continued to weaken [11]. - **Related News**: Some PTA units were restarting or shutting down, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [11][12]. - **Logic Analysis**: The September start - up rate will be repaired upwards, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter [12]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [13]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2601 futures main contract closed at 4339 (- 88/- 1.19%) during the day and 4363 (+24/+0.55%) at night. The spot basis was at a premium of 85 - 88 yuan/ton to the 01 contract [13]. - **Related News**: The ethylene glycol inventory in East China's main ports decreased by 5.1 tons week - on - week, and the sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light [13]. - **Logic Analysis**: The overall start - up rate will increase at a high level in September, and the visible inventory is expected to rise in the middle and late September [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread, it is recommended to do basis positive spread; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2510 main contract closed at 6438 during the day (- 30/- 0.46%) and 6446 at night (+8/+0.12%). The price of straight - spun polyester staple in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was stable [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were light, and a factory in Xinjiang restarted its 200,000 - ton straight - spun polyester staple unit [15]. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - fiber prices follow the raw materials, and the short - fiber processing fee is expected to be supported with some factories having production reduction plans in September [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [16]. Polyester Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: The PR2511 main contract closed at 5910 (- 40/- 0.67%) during the day and 5928 at night (+18/+0.30%). The polyester bottle - chip market transaction atmosphere was average [16][18]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was partially lowered [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is expected to be volatile, with relatively abundant supply and the downstream demand transitioning from peak to off - peak season [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [18]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2503 main contract of pure benzene and styrene futures closed at 5936 during the day (- 74/- 1.23%) and 6012 at night (+76/+1.28%); the EB2510 main contract closed at 6934 during the day (- 79/- 1.13%) and 7018 at night (+84/+1.21%). The spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased by 20 yuan/ton [18][19]. - **Related News**: A new cracking ethylene unit in Shandong Yulong plans to be put into operation in mid - September [20]. - **Logic Analysis**: Pure benzene prices are expected to be volatile, with an expected increase in port inventory and lack of upward drivers in the supply - demand side. Styrene still faces the pressure of inventory accumulation [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on pure benzene and short on styrene; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [22]. Propylene - **Market Review**: The PL2601 main contract closed at 6405 (- 18/- 0.28%) during the day and 6425 at night (+20/+0.31%). The propylene price in Shandong rose slightly [22]. - **Related News**: The listing price of propylene of Sinopec East China Sales Company was stable [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The propylene market is generally loose, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term, with strong support from the upstream raw material end [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to fluctuate and sort out; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [24]. Plastic PP - **Market Review**: The mainstream transaction price of LLDPE in North China decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton, and the mainstream transaction price of PP拉丝 in North China decreased by 30/0 yuan/ton [24]. - **Related News**: The PE maintenance ratio decreased by 0.8 percentage points, and the PP maintenance ratio increased by 0.84 percentage points [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: There is new production capacity expected to be put into operation for plastic PP, and the peak - season demand is likely to be weak, so the price is expected to be volatile and weak [25][26]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly adjusted, and the caustic soda price in Shandong was stable, while the price in Jiangsu increased [26][27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was basically unchanged, and the price of caustic soda in Shandong Jinning was stable [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC prices are still under pressure, with weak supply - demand reality and expectations. Caustic soda's medium - term supply - demand expectation is still favorable, but there is large near - end game [29]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, PVC is recommended to maintain a short - selling idea, and caustic soda is recommended to wait and see; for the spread and options, it is recommended to wait and see [30]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 01 contract closed at 1267 yuan (- 4/- 0.3%) during the day and 1280 yuan at night (13/1.0%). The SA9 - 1 spread was - 115 yuan [31]. - **Related News**: Some soda ash production equipment had changes in operation status, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased [32]. - **Logic Analysis**: The soda ash supply increases, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term, with weakening macro - drive [32]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be weak; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on FG01 and short on SA01, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 backwardation strategy in the first half of the month; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [33]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 01 contract closed at 1134 yuan/ton (- 3/- 0.26%) during the day and 1141 yuan/ton at night (7/0.62%). The 9 - 1 spread was - 179 yuan [34]. - **Related News**: The spot price of float glass increased slightly, and the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises increased [34][35]. - **Logic Analysis**: The glass supply is stable, and the demand improvement is uncertain. The price is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is expected to be volatile and weak; for the spread, it is recommended to go long on FG01 and short on SA01; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [36]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2393 (+15/+0.63%). The production - area and consumption - area prices were reported [36]. - **Related News**: The international methanol (excluding China) production increased, and the device capacity utilization rate increased [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international device start - up rate is stable, the import is gradually recovering, and the port inventory is increasing. The domestic supply is loose, and it is recommended to short on rallies [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the single - side, it is recommended to short at high levels; for the spread, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell call options [38]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures fluctuated widely and closed at 1746 (+9/+0.52%). The ex - factory price was stable [38]. - **Related News**: The daily urea production increased, and India tendered for 200,000 tons of urea [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: The domestic supply is loose, and the demand is showing a downward trend, but the Indian tender

Group 1 - The core drivers of the recent surge in gold prices include expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical conflicts, and concerns over the credibility of the US dollar [2][4][6] - The expectation of interest rate cuts has intensified since late August 2025, with market probabilities for a September cut exceeding 90% following a favorable core PCE inflation report [2] - Geopolitical tensions, such as the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and escalating Middle East tensions, have acted as short-term catalysts for increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [3][4] Group 2 - Gold is viewed as a key tool for hedging against currency devaluation, with central banks, including China's, continuing to increase their gold reserves [7] - For individual investors, there are three main ways to participate in gold investment: gold ETFs, physical gold, and gold stocks [8][10][11] - Gold ETFs offer low entry barriers and high liquidity, while physical gold is suitable for long-term holding, and gold stocks can provide significant upside but come with higher volatility [9][10][11] Group 3 - Gold's anti-inflation properties make it a stable investment during periods of monetary expansion, despite a slight easing of global inflation pressures in 2025 [12] - The weakening of the US dollar's credibility is seen as a long-term bullish factor for gold, with emerging market central banks increasing their gold holdings [13] - Ordinary investors are advised to avoid chasing high prices, consider dollar-cost averaging through gold ETFs or accumulation plans, and dynamically adjust their positions based on market conditions [14][15]