Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to maintain high - level oscillations due to factors such as the uncertain outcome of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, weak domestic economic data, the transition from peak season to off - season, and low inventory [1]. - Aluminum prices are affected by the Sino - US talks and the approaching off - season. It is recommended to closely monitor the results of the Sino - US talks [2]. - Nickel is expected to experience weak oscillations in the medium - to - long term due to cost support and supply surplus [3][5]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to conduct range trading, while paying attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of June 11, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.2% to 79,290 yuan/ton. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough, but the US side is optimistic. The market expects the US to impose tariffs on copper, which has led to a halving of LME copper inventory in the past three months. The domestic spot market has low downstream consumption, low social inventory, and a narrowing BACK spread. The negative low level of copper ore smelting TC exerts continuous pressure on the supply outlook [1]. Aluminum - As of June 11, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 1.25% to 20,250 yuan/ton. Mining disruptions in Guinea will impact the import volume of bauxite in July. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has declined, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has decreased. The 232 steel and aluminum tariffs in the US have increased, and the impact of the off - season is gradually emerging [2]. Nickel - As of June 11, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract rose 0.11% to 121,790 yuan/ton. The US PMI is expanding, and the euro - zone PMI is contracting. Domestically, the LPR has been lowered. The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the downstream nickel - iron is in a loss state. The refined nickel has a surplus, and the LME inventory has increased. The demand for stainless steel is average, and the price of nickel sulfate is pushed up by cost but has limited demand [3][5]. Tin - As of June 11, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract rose 0.69% to 265,530 yuan/ton. In May, domestic refined tin production decreased, and in April, tin concentrate imports increased. The supply of tin ore is gradually improving, and the inventory has decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, but the US tariff policy may suppress downstream demand [6]. Spot Transaction Summary Copper - Domestic spot copper prices rose slightly. Sellers were reluctant to cut prices, and buyers were waiting and watching, resulting in a stalemate in the market [7]. Aluminum - Spot aluminum market transactions improved. Sellers were reluctant to sell due to low inventory, and buyers were less willing to chase up prices. Long - term orders supported trading activity, and the market showed a situation of more buying than selling in the afternoon [8]. Alumina - Spot market transactions were light. Sellers maintained a price - holding strategy, while buyers were waiting and watching, resulting in poor transactions [9]. Zinc - Spot zinc market prices fell. Sellers were forced to cut prices, and buyers only made purchases to meet rigid demand, with low overall purchasing willingness [10]. Lead - Spot lead market prices rose slightly. Traders' discount quotes narrowed, and they were waiting for price corrections to replenish inventory. Recycled lead enterprises were more willing to sell, and transactions were concentrated on low - priced goods [11][12]. Nickel - Spot nickel market prices fell. Market transactions were cautious, and trading was light [13]. Tin - Spot tin market prices rose. Market transactions were cautious, and trading was light [14]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 373 tons to 33,373 tons; LME copper inventory decreased by 950 tons to 119,450 tons. SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 75 tons to 47,468 tons; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 357,600 tons. SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,075 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,975 tons to 132,575 tons. SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 399 tons to 42,597 tons; LME lead inventory decreased by 4,500 tons to 273,525 tons. SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts increased by 72 tons to 21,113 tons; LME nickel inventory decreased by 618 tons to 197,508 tons. SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 56 tons to 6,810 tons; LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons to 2,365 tons [15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The copper price is expected to maintain a volatile pattern, with limited upside and downside space [1] - The aluminum price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and it is recommended to strengthen observation and pay attention to the progress of China - US dialogue [2] - The nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - to - long term, with limited downside space due to firm costs [3][5] - The tin price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended for interval trading, with attention paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [6] Summaries by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of June 10, the main 07 contract of Shanghai copper rose 0.27% to 78,880 yuan/ton. Tariffs and the China - US leaders' call brought positive expectations. The domestic refined copper output remained high, but supply disruptions and low TC supported the price. Social inventory was stable at a low level, consumption declined, and the upside space of the copper price was limited. However, due to low inventory and supply disruptions, the downside space was also limited [1] Aluminum - As of June 10, the main 07 contract of Shanghai aluminum fell 0.12% to 20,050 yuan/ton. Guinea's mine - end disruptions will affect the arrival volume of imported bauxite in July. Alumina's operating capacity increased, and inventory decreased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was flat. The downstream开工率 decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The short - term aluminum price is expected to be weak [2] Nickel - As of June 10, the main 07 contract of Shanghai nickel fell 1.06% to 121,390 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market in Indonesia was tight, and the price was firm. Nickel - iron had a profit loss, and the demand for stainless steel was average. The refined nickel was in surplus, and the price of nickel sulfate was strong due to cost. The nickel price is expected to oscillate weakly [3][5] Tin - As of June 10, the main 07 contract of Shanghai tin rose 0.21% to 263,420 yuan/ton. In May, domestic refined tin production decreased, and imports and exports changed. The semiconductor industry was expected to recover, and the inventory decreased. The supply of tin ore improved, but the impact of tariffs on downstream consumption needed attention. The tin price is expected to oscillate [6] Spot Transaction Summary - Copper: Domestic spot copper prices rose, but high prices suppressed restocking, and transactions were light [7] - Aluminum: Spot aluminum transaction prices fell, and the market was weak, with few transactions [8] - Alumina: Spot prices were stable, trading activity declined, and transactions were restricted [9] - Zinc: Spot zinc prices fell, and transactions were light, with low procurement willingness [10] - Lead: Spot lead prices rose, and traders were more willing to hold up prices, with cautious restocking [11][12] - Nickel: Spot nickel prices fell, and transactions were mainly for rigid demand [13] - Tin: Spot tin prices rose, and high - price transactions were light [14] Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE: Copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin futures warehouse receipts decreased, while zinc and lead futures warehouse receipts increased [16] - LME: Copper, tin, lead, zinc, aluminum, and nickel inventories decreased [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices are expected to oscillate at high levels in the short - term due to a combination of factors such as a tight supply of raw materials, a marginal stabilization of processing fees, and a weakening in consumer resilience, along with support from a rapid decline in LME's available registered warehouse receipts and high positions in near - month contracts of SHFE copper approaching delivery [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to have limited upward potential. Although the mood of economic and trade negotiations is positive and domestic inventories are decreasing rapidly, the US's increase in tariffs on imported aluminum products has put pressure on demand expectations [3]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weak as downstream consumer demand continues to decline, while the production of primary lead has increased, and the inventory of recycled lead remains high [4]. - Zinc prices may decline further. With an oversupply of zinc ore, an increase in the profit of zinc smelters, and weak terminal consumption, if there is no production control from the industrial side, zinc prices may continue to fall [6]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term. Although there is an expectation of a looser supply, there is still significant short - term uncertainty, and downstream enterprises have a strong demand for low - price procurement [8]. - Nickel's short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the long - term outlook is bearish. It is advisable to wait for a rebound and then short at high prices [9]. - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not changed substantially, and the price is likely to oscillate at the bottom with limited rebound potential [11]. - Alumina prices are expected to be anchored by costs. With continuous disturbances in the ore market and an over - capacity situation, it is recommended to short at high prices lightly [13]. - The stainless - steel market will continue to face pressure in the short - term due to high inventory, weak demand, weakened cost support, and downward macro - economic pressure [15]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed up 1.01% at $9,768/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 79,330 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 10,000 to 122,400 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 34,000 tons. Domestic social inventory was basically flat over the weekend [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of copper raw materials is tight, processing fees are marginally stable, and consumer resilience has weakened [1]. - **Price Forecast**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate at high levels, with the SHFE copper main contract operating in the range of 78,500 - 79,800 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,650 - 9,850/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed up 1.28% at $2,483/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,060 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract open interest increased by 0.6 million to 53.0 million lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased slightly to 48,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons to 477,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Economic and trade negotiations have a positive impact on sentiment, and domestic inventories are decreasing rapidly, but the US's tariff increase on imported aluminum products has affected demand expectations [3]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to have limited upward potential, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20,000 - 20,200 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,450 - 2,500/ton [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.07% at 16,764 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell $9 to $1,981.5/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead futures inventory was 41,800 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 50,900 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream battery enterprises are promoting sales at reduced prices, consumer demand is weak, the production of primary lead has increased, and the inventory of recycled lead remains high [4]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to remain weak [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 2.22% at 21,795 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell $34.5 to $2,655.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 2,100 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 81,700 tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore is in an oversupply situation, the profit of zinc smelters has increased, and terminal consumption is weak [6]. - **Price Forecast**: If there is no production control from the industrial side, zinc prices may decline further, and attention should be paid to the actions of smelting enterprises at the 21,500 yuan/ton level [6]. Tin - **Price**: SHFE tin main contract closed up 0.05% at 263,740 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 116 tons to 6,904 tons, and LME inventory remained unchanged at 2,440 tons [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: There may be a reduction in tin ore imports in June, and the processing fees of tin concentrates remain at a historical low. Downstream orders have not increased significantly, and the acceptance of high - price raw materials is limited [8]. - **Price Forecast**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton and overseas LME tin in the range of $30,000 - 33,000/ton [8]. Nickel - **Price**: SHFE nickel main contract closed down 0.27% at 121,950 yuan/ton, and LME main contract closed down 0.81% at $15,365/ton [9]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory - related information provided. - **Supply and Demand**: Nickel ore supply is tight, nickel iron prices have rebounded, intermediate products are in short supply, and the price of nickel sulfate is expected to strengthen [9]. - **Price Forecast**: The short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, but the long - term is bearish. It is advisable to short at high prices after a rebound, with the SHFE nickel main contract operating in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,500/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was 60,537 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2507 contract closed at 60,700 yuan, up 0.43% from the previous day [11]. - **Inventory**: Lithium salt production is at a high level, and downstream production growth is limited, resulting in high inventory pressure [11]. - **Price Forecast**: The short - term fundamentals have not changed substantially, and the price is likely to oscillate at the bottom with limited rebound potential [11]. Alumina - **Price**: No specific price data provided. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2,100 tons to 90,400 tons [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: There are continuous disturbances in the ore market, and the over - capacity situation is difficult to change [13]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to be anchored by costs, and it is recommended to short at high prices lightly. The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to operate in the range of 2,800 - 3,100 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,640 yuan/ton, down 0.32% [15]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 2.06% to 1.1223 million tons, and the inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 1.71% to 680,600 tons [15]. - **Supply and Demand**: The industry is facing high inventory and weak demand, along with weakened cost support and downward macro - economic pressure [15]. - **Price Forecast**: The market will continue to face pressure in the short - term [15].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan, with subsequent inventory accumulation likely to be slow due to strong support from the current fundamentals and macro - environment [1] - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and the calendar spread long - position can be held if the absolute price drops [1] - For zinc, it is recommended to short at high prices and consider partial profit - taking for the domestic - foreign calendar spread long - position [2] - Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [3] - The stainless - steel market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - The lead price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week, with supply expected to decrease in May [6] - For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] - The industrial silicon price is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large factories in the long run [9] - The lithium carbonate price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9] Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - Domestic inventory continued to increase slightly this week. The earthquake in the Kamoa mining area may affect this year's production. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production, which may affect the domestic TC. The domestic copper consumption shows resilience, and the price is expected to oscillate around 78,000 yuan [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and the demand decline in May - June is not obvious. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory reduction [1] Zinc - The zinc price oscillated this week. Supply - side TC remained unchanged, and smelting maintenance decreased slightly. Demand - side domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The inventory accumulation inflection point is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remains high, and imports from Russia increased in April. Demand is weak, and overseas inventory increased slightly. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be monitored [3] Stainless Steel - Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory increased slightly in Xijiao and Foshan. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] Lead - The lead price oscillated downward this week. Supply - side recycling and smelting have issues, and demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 and 16,900 yuan next week [6] Tin - The tin price oscillated narrowly this week. Supply - side domestic production may be affected by processing fees, and overseas production has resumed. Demand is weak, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8] Industrial Silicon - The overall start - up rate increased slightly this week. The market is at a low level, and inventory is gradually decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long run [9] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price rebounded after a decline this week. Supply - side production and inventory changes are complex, and demand is weak. The price is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weakly oscillating in the medium - long term [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices fluctuated downward and rebounded in the afternoon. The main contract price has certain support at the 78,000 level. Macroscopically, the domestic sentiment weakened today, and non - ferrous metals generally declined. Recently, the weak operation of the index is beneficial to copper prices. Industrially, the marginal increase in inventory last week put pressure on the futures price, but on the 26th, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 141,100 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from last week, which is beneficial to copper prices. In the short term, continue to focus on the long - short game at the 78,000 level, and it is expected that the futures price will oscillate strongly [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, aluminum prices dived in the morning and then stabilized in the range of 20,000. Macroscopically, the domestic sentiment weakened today, and non - ferrous metals generally declined. Industrially, benefiting from good downstream demand, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum continued to decline at a low level. On the 26th, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 540,000 tons, a decrease of 47,000 tons from last week. It is expected that the futures price will remain strong, and the technical support at the 20,000 mark can be concerned [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices oscillated weakly, and the main contract price stabilized at the 122,000 level with a slight increase in open interest. Last week, nickel prices oscillated weakly, and the price center moved down. In the short term, the upstream of nickel is strong and the downstream is weak, showing a neutral state with weak price drivers; in the long term, it is bearish, and the price center continues to decline. Technically, the short - term nickel price broke through the 123,000 mark downward, and it is expected that the futures price will operate weakly [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On May 27, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to April 2025, the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry achieved an operating income of 2,959.46 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%; the operating cost was 2,795.27 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.5%; the total profit was 91.63 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 24.5%. From January to April, the non - ferrous metal mining and dressing industry achieved an operating income of 128.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.0%; the operating cost was 74.78 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%; the total profit was 36.54 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 47.8%. On May 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued an announcement on the release of the "Regulations on the Management of Non - Ferrous Metal Delivery Commodities of the Shanghai Futures Exchange" (Revised Edition in May 2025). On May 26, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 141,100 tons, a decrease of 800 tons from the 19th and a decrease of 2,600 tons from the 22nd [9]. - **Aluminum**: On May 26, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 540,000 tons, a decrease of 17,900 tons from the 22nd and a decrease of 47,000 tons from the 19th [9]. - **Nickel**: On May 27, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2506 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,280 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +350 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,430 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +2,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,680 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 121,180 yuan/ton [10]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancellation warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina trend, alumina inventory [24][26][29] - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [37][39][41]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are currently fluctuating around 78,000 yuan, with the current fundamentals and macro - environment strongly supporting electrolytic copper. Aluminum prices are expected to rebound with inventory reduction, and long - short spreads in the month can be held if the absolute price drops. Zinc prices are oscillating, and it is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profit on long - short spreads. Nickel - stainless steel ratio contraction opportunities can be continuously monitored. Stainless steel is expected to oscillate in the short term. Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week. Tin is recommended to be observed in the short term and high - short opportunities should be monitored in the long term. Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the long term. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the medium - long term and decline after oscillation next week [1][2][3][6][8][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased by 35, the waste - refined copper spread decreased by 40, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1,652 [1] - **Supply**: Due to the earthquake in the Kamoa mining area, some mining areas stopped production, which may affect this year's output. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will start feeding and resuming production in early June, which may improve the shortage of electrolytic copper premiums in Southeast Asia but have an adverse impact on domestic TC [1] - **Demand**: The consumption of domestic electrolytic copper shows resilience. The State Grid has issued the second batch of tenders this year, and the cable consumption and orders in the remaining time of the second quarter are expected to be strong. However, the consumption of several sectors shows a weakening trend [1] Aluminum - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 10 yuan, the Yangtze River aluminum ingot price increased by 20 yuan, and the domestic alumina price increased by 59 yuan [1] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has increased slightly, and the import of aluminum ingots from January to April was large. The demand from May to June is not expected to decline significantly, and there is still a supply - demand gap. The inventory is expected to be slowly reduced from May to July [1] Zinc - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 10, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 60, and the LME zinc inventory decreased by 2,725 [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: Domestic TC and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and the smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly compared with the previous month. Demand: Domestic demand has limited elasticity, and overseas demand has slightly recovered. The domestic social inventory is slowly increasing, and the inflection point of accelerated inventory accumulation is expected to appear in early June [2] Nickel - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, and the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 150 [3] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The production of pure nickel remains at a high level, and the import of Russian nickel increased in April. Demand: Overall demand is weak. Inventory: Overseas nickel plate inventory has slightly increased, and domestic inventory remains stable [3] Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 100 [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: Production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May. Demand: It is mainly driven by rigid demand. Cost: The prices of ferronickel and ferrochrome remain stable. Inventory: The inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has slightly increased [6] Lead - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot premium decreased by 30, and the LME lead inventory increased by 47,675 [7][8] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. Middle - stream recycling smelters have concentrated production capacity, and the demand for waste batteries is tight. Demand: Battery export orders have slightly declined, and overall demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week [8] Tin - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the spot import profit decreased by 3,040.30, and the LME tin inventory remained unchanged [10] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires negotiation. The domestic Jiangxi region has partially cut production, and the Yunnan region is struggling to maintain production. Demand: The elasticity of solder consumption is limited, and the downstream lacks the motivation to further destock. It is recommended to observe in the short term and monitor high - short opportunities in the long term [10] Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 35, and the 421 Sichuan basis decreased by 35 [11] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The overall start - up has slightly increased. Demand: The demand for silicone and polysilicon is declining. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and social inventory has started to be reduced. In the long term, it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From May 19 - 23, the SMM electric carbon price remained unchanged, and the SMM industrial carbon price remained unchanged [11] - **Supply and Demand**: Supply: The production lines of Tianqi and Yahua have resumed work, and small recycling plants have intensified production cuts. Demand: Downstream demand is weak, and the demand improvement by policies is less than expected. In the medium - long term, prices are expected to oscillate weakly and decline after oscillation next week [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overseas risk appetite has decreased, and attention should be paid to the impact of economic data releases on market sentiment. There is still a need to be aware of the long - term economic decline risk under US tariff policies. The copper raw material supply remains in a tight pattern, with strong price support, but the price center is expected to move down due to reduced consumption intensity [1]. - The domestic commodity sentiment is marginally stable, while the overseas risk appetite has weakened. High tariff levels lead to concerns about long - term demand. The high processing fees of aluminum rods are conducive to further inventory reduction of aluminum ingots, with strong price support, but the seasonal weak consumption will limit the upward space of aluminum prices, and the short - term price is expected to be volatile [3]. - The inventory of recycled raw materials is limited, and the profit of recycled lead enterprises is under pressure, with the operating rate continuously declining. After the battery enterprises' holidays, the operating rate has returned to a relatively high level. In the medium term, the Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within a range of 16300 - 17800, and the short - term lead price shows a strong upward trend [5]. - In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloys increased significantly. From a fundamental perspective, the port inventory of zinc concentrates continues to rise, and the processing fees of zinc concentrates increase again. The zinc ore surplus expectation remains unchanged. With the accumulation of zinc ingot inventory, the zinc price still has a certain downward risk in the medium term [7]. - The supply of tin is currently tight in the short term but is expected to loosen. The terminal orders in industries such as home appliances and electronics have not significantly increased, and the tin price center may move down under the drag of demand [8][9]. - The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the spot demand is weak. The inventory may return to the accumulation trend, and the nickel price maintains a bearish outlook [10]. - The supply and demand side of lithium carbonate lacks strong driving forces, and the futures price is in the cost - intensive area. If the demand does not weaken further, there is significant resistance to downward movement, and it is likely to fluctuate at the bottom [12]. - There are continuous disturbances in the ore and supply sides of alumina. The short - term impact of the mine shutdown in Guinea is large, and local policy uncertainty is high. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [15]. - The nickel - iron market is in a game situation, and the high - carbon ferrochrome market is waiting for the June tender of steel mills. The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [17]. Summary by Metals Copper - The LME copper closed down 0.71% to $9487/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77770 yuan/ton. The LME inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 168825 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio rose to 39.1%. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.5 tons to 4.1 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved. The import loss of domestic copper spot increased to over 400 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed slightly. The expected operating range of the Shanghai copper main contract today is 77000 - 78400 yuan/ton, and that of LME copper 3M is 9400 - 9600 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - The LME aluminum closed down 0.22% to $2475/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20135 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 0.04 million hands to 51.6 million hands, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 tons to 6.0 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1.05 tons to 44.7 tons, and the aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.2 tons to 8.3 tons. The spot premium in the East China region remained unchanged. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract today is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton, and that of LME aluminum 3M is 2450 - 2500 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - The 3S price of lead rose by 13.5 to $1985/ton. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16725 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference was 50 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 4.11 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 24.58 tons. The domestic social inventory increased to 5.82 tons. The medium - term expected operating range of the Shanghai lead index is 16300 - 17800 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.76% to 22417 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose 62 to $2730.5/ton. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 22760 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.14 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 15.67 tons. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 8.38 tons. In April, China's exports of unforged zinc alloys increased significantly. The zinc price still has a downward risk in the medium term [7]. Tin - On May 21, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 267730 yuan/ton, up 1.13%. The domestic Shanghai Futures Exchange registered warehouse receipts increased by 45 tons to 8070 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 15 tons to 2670 tons. The upstream tin concentrate price rose. The tin ore supply is expected to loosen, and the tin price center may move down. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton, and that of overseas LME tin is 30000 - 33000 dollars/ton [8][9]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 123760 yuan/ton, up 0.18%, and the LME main contract closed at $15630/ton, up 0.64%. The price of nickel ore is stable or slightly decreased, the nickel - iron price is stable, and the price of intermediate products is high. The LME nickel inventory increased by 90 tons to 202098 tons. The nickel price maintains a bearish outlook. The expected operating range of the Shanghai nickel main contract today is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton, and that of LME nickel 3M is 15000 - 16300 dollars/ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 62,657 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2507 contract closed at 61,100 yuan, up 0.39%. The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The expected operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2507 contract today is 60,400 - 61,800 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - On May 21, 2025, the alumina index rose 3.55% to 3241 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions increased. The overseas Australian FOB price remained stable, and the import loss was 152 yuan/ton. The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1.68 tons to 17.35 tons. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The expected operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [14][15]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12870 yuan/ton, up 0.23%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained unchanged. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the nickel - iron price decreased slightly. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 0.42%. The stainless - steel market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic equity market weakened, and the growth of US retail sales slowed down. Precious metal prices stabilized, and copper prices rebounded after a decline. Aluminum prices oscillated and corrected. The short - term upward trend of copper prices is difficult, and the rebound height of aluminum prices is restricted. Lead prices show a strong short - term oscillation. Zinc prices rebounded slightly. Tin supply is expected to loosen, and if demand remains weak, the price center may shift down. Nickel prices should be treated with a bearish view. Lithium carbonate prices face pressure, and the disk may continue to test the industry's acceptance. Alumina supply has disturbances, and a long - short strategy is recommended. Stainless steel prices rose, but the long - term trend depends on terminal recovery and the off - season cycle [1][3][4][6][9][10][12][14][16]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: LME copper rose slightly by 0.08% to $9600/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,490 yuan/ton. The expected price range is 77,800 - 79,000 yuan/ton for SHFE copper and $9500 - 9700/ton for LME copper [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,650 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by nearly 10,000 tons. The SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 61,000 tons [1]. - **Market situation**: The spot in Shanghai turned to a premium over futures, and the demand in Guangdong was weak. The import loss of domestic copper spot remained at about 250 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread narrowed [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum fell 0.93% to $2499/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20,220 yuan/ton. The expected price range is 20,100 - 20,300 yuan/ton for SHFE aluminum and $2460 - 2520/ton for LME aluminum [3]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2025 tons to 397,275 tons [3]. - **Market situation**: The spot in East China was at a premium over futures, and the overall destocking speed was fast, but the demand improvement may face challenges [3]. Lead - **Price**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.20% to 16,971 yuan/ton, and LME lead rose to $1984.5/ton. It is expected to oscillate between 16,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton in the medium term [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased to 56,000 tons, and the SHFE lead inventory was 49,400 tons [4]. - **Market situation**: The lead concentrate port inventory increased, the production of primary lead enterprises was high, and the production of recycled lead enterprises decreased [4]. Zinc - **Price**: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.49% to 22,494 yuan/ton, and LME zinc rose to $2755/ton. Zinc prices rebounded slightly [6]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 86,300 tons, and the SHFE zinc warehouse receipts remained at a low level [6]. - **Market situation**: The zinc concentrate port inventory increased, the processing fee rose, and the Russian Longxin lead - zinc mine is expected to shut down in June, which may boost zinc prices [6]. Tin - **Price**: The SHFE tin main contract closed at 265,210 yuan/ton, down 0.21%. The expected price range is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton for domestic contracts and $30,000 - 33,000/ton for LME tin [8][9]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 16 tons to 8163 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 30 tons to 2745 tons [8]. - **Market situation**: The mine supply is expected to loosen, and the restocking willingness of the electronics and home appliance industries is low due to tariffs [9]. Nickel - **Price**: The SHFE nickel main contract closed at 125,230 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, and LME nickel closed at $15,805/ton, up 0.03%. The expected price range is 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel and $15,000 - 16,300/ton for LME nickel [10]. - **Market situation**: The price of nickel ore was stable, the demand for high - nickel pig iron weakened, and the price of nickel continued to be bearish [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC index was flat at 64,727 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed at 64,120 yuan, down 1.66%. The expected price range is 63,400 - 65,200 yuan/ton [12]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory increased by 351 tons to 131,920 tons, and the production remained high with great inventory pressure [12]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index rose 1.56% to 2987 yuan/ton. The expected price range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2700 - 3100 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts decreased by 10,500 tons to 193,300 tons [14]. - **Market situation**: The supply is disturbed, and a long - short strategy is recommended [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,995 yuan/ton, down 0.65%. The profit of steel mills improved, but the downstream demand did not increase substantially [16]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by 0.42% to 1.1083 million tons [16].

铝方面，安泰科预计长期来看，供应受限支撑铝价的逻辑仍然存在，但出口下降、国内需求环比有转弱 风险，同时成本重心继续下移，价格上涨空间或受压制，整体将表现为前高后低趋势，预计全年价格重 心同比持平。 研判金属价格走向，挖掘未来发展机遇，推进有色金属产业加速转型升级。4月29日，安泰科2025年 （第十六届）有色金属市场报告会在北京铁道大厦召开。会上，由深圳市中金岭南期货有限公司（以下 简称"中金岭南期货"）和北京安泰科信息股份有限公司（以下简称"安泰科"）携手打造的产融服务平台 ——"金泰有色金属研究中心"（以下简称"金泰研究中心"）揭牌成立。 锡方面，安泰科预计锡价格仍将在宏观托举下震荡上行；基本面看锡市场仍可以保持去库存状态，对价 格形成支撑。伴随刚果金主力矿山复产，佤邦筹备复产工作的启动，全球锡供应将从二季度起开始恢 复，需求虽受关税战影响或承压，但全年仍将有1%-3%的小幅增长。 有色金属技术经济研究院有限责任公司党委副书记、总经理马存真在致辞中表示，当前有色金属工业整 体生产保持平稳增长，国内消费稳中有增，投资和贸易保持活跃，数智化有序推进，行业转型升级步伐 稳健，行业景气度处在合理区间。不过，在供需 ...

1、投资建议 行业研究 市场研究部 2025 年 3 月 10 日 有色金属周度观察 周度有色指数表现 上周（20250303-20250309）有色金属板块涨跌幅为 7.1%，在中信 行业指数中，涨跌幅按大小排第 2 位。分板块看，上周涨跌幅表现较 好的是铅锌(中信)12%；表现较差的锂 2.6%。从公司表现看，上周涨 跌幅从大到小排列，居前的为华钰矿业 47.8%、永茂泰 40.8%、宜安 科技 32.2%、湖南黄金 29.4%、华锡有色 25.1%；居后的为利源股份 -9.0%、中润资源-8.9%、济南高新-3.8%、大地熊-3.3%、东方锆业- 3.0%。 有色行业数据周度观察 贵金属主要是黄金和白银，根据最新数据（20250303-20250309）， SHFE 黄金区间涨跌幅为 1.1%，SHFE 白银涨跌幅为 2.0%。 工 业 金 属 品 种 价 格 基 本 均 上 涨 。 具 体 看 ， 六 大 工 业 金 属 品 种 （20250303-20250309）区间涨跌幅如下：（以期货收盘价-活跃合约 为指标计算）：阴极铜为 1.6%，铝 0.8%，铅为 0.9%，锌 1.0%，锡为 2.5%， ...