1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices soared to record highs, with the loss of domestic refined copper spot imports widening. The weakening US labor market and the improvement of the service industry index, along with the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in China, are the main influencing factors. The increase in LME and Comex copper inventories, along with the decrease in SHFE copper warehouse receipts, indicate tight LME inventories and structural issues in global visible inventories, which may lead to a continued strong performance in the market [1]. - Aluminum prices showed a mixed trend, with aluminum alloy weakening and aluminum and alumina showing different trends. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and restart rhythms emerged, leading to a significant correction in the market. The decline in aluminum prices has boosted downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand has gradually been realized in the short term. However, as the new energy vehicle purchase tax rush ends and the State Grid order matching concludes, the support for aluminum prices is strong, but it is difficult to sustain the demand surge, and the possibility of reaching a new high this year is low [1][2]. - Nickel prices also showed a mixed trend, with LME nickel rising and Shanghai nickel falling slightly. The inventory situation is complex, with LME nickel inventory decreasing and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increasing. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain is facing challenges, with the raw material support weakening and the stainless - steel inventory increasing. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. It may be advisable to consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - level disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices reached new historical highs. The US labor market showed signs of weakness, with a decrease of 32,000 in the ADP employment number in November 2025, the largest decline since March 2023. However, the US ISM service industry PMI index rose to 52.6 in November, the highest in nine months. Domestically, attention is focused on the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. LME copper inventory increased by 350 tons to 162,150 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 2,127 tons to 393,979 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons. The large - scale conversion of LME copper registered warehouse receipts to cancelled warehouse receipts is seen as a sign of impending large - scale提货, indicating tight LME inventories and structural issues in global visible inventories [1]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum alloy trended weakly, with the overnight main contract AD2601 closing at 20,970 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.64%. Aluminum trended strongly, with the overnight AL2601 closing at 22,010 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.53%. Alumina trended weakly, with the overnight AO2601 closing at 2,632 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.53%. The expected environmental production restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and restart rhythms emerged, leading to a correction in the market. The decline in aluminum prices has led to an improvement in downstream sentiment, and the lagging demand has been gradually realized in the short term. However, the support for aluminum prices is strong, but it is difficult to sustain the demand surge, and the possibility of reaching a new high this year is low [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.92% to 14,875 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.02% to 117,590 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 84 tons to 252,990 tons, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 244 tons to 32,595 tons. The nickel - iron - stainless steel industry chain is facing challenges, with the raw material support weakening and the stainless - steel inventory increasing. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, but the production of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. It may be advisable to consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - level disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 3, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 88,925 yuan/ton, up 340 yuan from the previous day. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong remained unchanged at 79,800 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory remained unchanged at 161,800 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1,599 tons to 28,969 tons, and the total social inventory (including bonded areas) decreased by 0.4 million tons to 26.2 million tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: On December 3, 2025, the Wuxi quotation was 21,790 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan from the previous day, and the Nanhai quotation was 21,690 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan from the previous day. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged at 535,900 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 66,833 tons, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged at 59.6 million tons [5]. - **Nickel**: On December 3, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 122,400 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan from the previous day. LME nickel inventory remained unchanged at 253,074 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts increased by 244 tons to 32,595 tons, and the total social inventory of nickel increased by 3,090 tons to 55,349 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: On December 3, 2025, the main settlement price was 22,740 yuan/ton, up 0.2% from the previous day. LME zinc inventory remained unchanged at 52,375 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 0.28 million tons to 13.76 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: On December 3, 2025, the main settlement price was 309,340 yuan/ton, up 1.2% from the previous day. LME tin inventory remained unchanged at 3,145 tons, and SHFE tin inventory increased by 130 tons to 6,359 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: The report provides spot premium charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of spot premiums for these metals [9][12][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: The report provides near - far month spread charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025, showing the historical trends of near - far month spreads for these metals [15][18][21]. - **LME Inventory**: The report provides LME inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of LME inventories for these metals [23][25][27]. - **SHFE Inventory**: The report provides SHFE inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of SHFE inventories for these metals [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: The report provides social inventory charts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of social inventories for these items [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: The report provides charts for copper concentrate index, crude copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025, showing the historical trends of smelting - related indicators [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous metal research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with more than a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research. Both have rich experience in tracking the new energy industry chain and providing in - depth reports [49][50].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (indicating a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (suggesting a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall market shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are supported by supply - demand factors, while others are affected by cost, inventory, and market sentiment [2][3][4] - For most metals, there are specific price trends and trading suggestions based on their individual fundamentals and market conditions Summary by Metals Copper - On Wednesday, SHFE copper increased in positions, fluctuated, and closed up. The spot copper was reported at 88,980 yuan, with a premium in Shanghai of 140 yuan and a shrinking premium in Guangdong to 85 yuan. It has resilience in the previous trading - intensive area of 88,300 - 88,500 yuan. Long positions should be held based on the MA5 daily moving average [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of SHFE aluminum have limited contradictions. The social inventory of aluminum ingots in major areas has shown narrow fluctuations this week. It is testing the resistance near the previous high of 22,000 yuan. The price difference between cast aluminum alloy and SHFE aluminum has expanded to over 800 yuan, with potential for narrowing at the end of the year [3] - Alumina has a high operating capacity, with increasing industry inventory and exchange warehouse receipts. The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged, and it will be weak until large - scale production cuts occur [3] Zinc - Domestic smelters have a strong production - reduction expectation, and overseas smelters have a mediocre production - increase expectation in the fourth quarter. The supply constraint of zinc ingots is strengthening, and the zinc price is expected to rise, possibly breaking through the annual line [4] Nickel and Stainless Steel - SHFE nickel's rebound is under pressure, and it is mainly in a low - volatility, range - bound operation. The inventory of stainless steel 300 - series cold - rolled products has increased, and the support from the rebound of upstream prices is weakening [7] Tin - SHFE tin increased in positions and rose again. It is not recommended to chase the high price, and a medium - to - long - term short - position with a hedging strategy is advisable [8] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuates narrowly. The market has a large divergence. The total market inventory has decreased, and the price of Australian ore remains strong [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is in a weakening trend. The supply in the main production areas of Sichuan and Yunnan may decrease during the dry season, and the demand may be suppressed by the joint production cuts of silicone enterprises, but the price decline is expected to be limited [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon strengthened again today after a callback due to position limits yesterday. The main driver is the expectation of tight delivery products. In the short term, the market is likely to fluctuate due to potential regulatory rules and national meetings [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings in the given reports. 2. Report Core Views Tin - Consider the fundamentals strong and maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and buy on dips. Monitor macro - end changes and supply - side recovery [2]. Industrial Silicon - Expect industrial silicon prices to remain in a low - level oscillation, with the main price range between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton. The market will maintain weak supply - demand in December [5]. Polysilicon - Anticipate an oversupply situation in December with inventory accumulation expected in all sectors. On the trading side, stay on the sidelines for futures and consider taking profits on options [6]. Nickel - Forecast the nickel price to range - bound in the short term, with the main reference range of 116000 - 120000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to macro - expectations and Indonesian industrial policies [7]. Stainless Steel - Expect stainless steel prices to remain weakly oscillating, with the main operating range of 12300 - 12700 yuan/ton. Focus on steel mills' production cut implementation and nickel - iron prices [9]. Aluminum - Predict alumina prices to remain in a bottom - oscillating trend, with the main contract reference range of 2650 - 2850 yuan/ton. For aluminum, expect prices to be strong in the short term, with the main contract range of 21500 - 22200 yuan/ton [15][16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Forecast casting aluminum alloy prices to remain strong in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20700 - 21400 yuan/ton. Monitor scrap aluminum supply and inventory reduction [17]. Zinc - Expect zinc prices to oscillate. The downside space is limited in the short term, and prices will likely remain in the range of 22200 - 23000 yuan/ton. Pay attention to TC inflection points and inventory changes [19]. Copper - Forecast copper prices to have a gradually rising bottom center in the medium - to - long term, with the main support level at 86000 - 87000 yuan/ton. Monitor overseas interest - rate cut expectations and smelting - end production cuts [20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin - **Spot Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price decreased by 1.14% to 304700 yuan/ton, and LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 21.95% to 150 dollars/ton [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 22.39% to - 820 yuan/ton [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49%, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% [2]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The price of East China oxygen - containing S15530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9550 yuan/ton, and the basis increased by 41.98% [5]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 250% [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: National industrial silicon production decreased by 11.17% in the month, and Xinjiang's production increased by 0.83% [5]. Polysilicon - **Spot Prices and Basis**: N - type re -投料 average price remained unchanged at 52350 yuan/kg, and the N - type material basis increased by 25.96% [6]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between the front - month and the first - following month decreased by 50.10% [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: Weekly polysilicon production decreased by 11.44%, and monthly production decreased by 14.48% [6]. Nickel - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.13% to 119900 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 2.08% [7]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts decreased by 20 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel imports decreased by 65.66% [7]. Stainless Steel - **Prices and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12700 yuan/ton, and the basis decreased by 4.71% [9]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2601 - 2602 contracts remained unchanged at - 70 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72%, and exports decreased by 14.43% [9]. Aluminum - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.09% to 21710 yuan/ton, and alumina (Shandong) average price decreased by 0.36% [14][16]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between AL 2512 - 2601 contracts remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton [14][16]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, alumina production decreased by 4.44%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum production decreased by 2.82% [14][16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Prices and Spreads**: SMM Southwest ADC12 price increased by 0.47% to 21600 yuan/ton, and the Foshan crushed raw aluminum scrap - to - refined spread decreased by 1.77% [17]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 20 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42%, and primary aluminum alloy ingot production increased by 5.84% [17]. Zinc - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.80% to 22740 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 10 yuan/ton [19]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts decreased by 10 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, refined zinc production decreased by 3.56%, and exports increased by 243.79% in October [19]. Copper - **Prices and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.69% to 88660 yuan/ton, and the premium increased by 15 yuan/ton [20]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: The spread between 2512 - 2601 contracts increased by 20 yuan/ton [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: In November, electrolytic copper production increased by 1.05%, and imports decreased by 15.61% in October [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices were strong, hitting record highs. The US manufacturing PMI in November was below expectations, and the Bank of Japan may consider raising interest rates in December, which could affect global liquidity. Domestically, the estimated copper production in December is expected to increase, but demand has slowed due to high prices. With the Fed's December rate - cut fully priced in, there is uncertainty about whether the macro - environment can remain optimistic, and the price's continued rise is also uncertain [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all trended strongly. The expected environmental restrictions on northern alumina plants did not occur, and new production and复产 increased. High - price aluminum led to an improvement in downstream sentiment, and inventory decreased. However, with the end of new energy vehicle purchase tax promotions and the completion of State Grid orders, the possibility of aluminum prices hitting new highs this year is low [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices fell slightly, and the nickel - iron stainless - steel industry chain was weak. In the new energy industry chain, raw materials were tight, but the output of ternary precursors is expected to decline in December. With increasing inventory pressure on primary nickel, one can consider buying at low prices, but beware of macro - disturbances and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: The US manufacturing PMI was weak, and the BOJ's potential rate - hike may impact liquidity. Domestic production is expected to increase in December, but demand is sluggish. Inventory changes vary in different markets. The sustainability of price increases is uncertain [1]. - **Aluminum**: Futures prices trended strongly, while spot prices had mixed performance. The non - occurrence of environmental restrictions and new production affected supply expectations. Demand was released in the short - term, but future growth is limited [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Futures prices rose, and inventory pressure increased. The nickel - iron stainless - steel industry was weak, and the new energy industry faced a decline in precursor output. Consider buying at low prices with caution [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On December 1, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 89,195 yuan/ton, up 1,850 yuan from November 28. LME inventory remained unchanged, Comex inventory increased, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased [4]. - **Aluminum**: On December 1, 2025, the Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum quotes increased. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE total inventory decreased [5]. - **Nickel**: On December 1, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel increased. LME inventory decreased, and SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Zinc**: On December 1, 2025, the主力 settlement price increased by 0.7%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and social inventory decreased [8]. - **Tin**: On December 1, 2025, the主力 settlement price increased by 2.1%. LME inventory remained unchanged, and SHFE inventory increased [8]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [10][12][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of SHFE near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [17][20][23]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [25][27][29]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [32][34][36]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventory for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [38][40][42]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [45][47][49]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience in non - ferrous metals research and have won many industry awards [52][53].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated with an upward bias, and domestic spot imports remained in a loss. The US market was closed for Thanksgiving, reducing its guiding role. The Fed's Beige Book showed that the US economic activity has nearly stalled recently, the job market continues to weaken, and inflationary pressures persist, posing challenges to monetary policy. LME copper inventory increased by 675 tons to 157,175 tons, Comex copper inventory remained at 378,904 tons, SHFE copper warrants decreased by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons, and BC copper decreased by 300 tons to 5,502 tons. The demand for copper showed a slow recovery as downstream acceptance improved despite high prices. The stabilization of domestic and international stock markets and a significant increase in the annual long - term copper contract price pushed up the copper price. However, the "inventory dam" will still limit the upside of copper prices this year. It is recommended to monitor the performance of copper prices at high levels, maintain the view of high - level fluctuations for now, but be aware that an effective upward breakthrough may lead to a new round of volatility increase and bullish sentiment [1]. - Aluminum: Overnight, alumina fluctuated with an upward bias, with AO2601 closing at 2,730 yuan/ton, a 0.55% increase, and open interest increasing by 3,459 lots to 359,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum fluctuated weakly, with AL2601 closing at 21,480 yuan/ton, a 0.28% decrease, and open interest increasing by 223 lots to 257,000 lots. Aluminum alloy also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract AD2601 closing at 20,715 yuan/ton, a 0.31% decrease, and open interest decreasing by 182 lots to 5,334 lots. In the spot market, the SMM alumina price dropped to 2,831 yuan/ton, the spot discount of aluminum ingots widened to 20 yuan/ton, and the Foshan A00 quotation rebounded to 21,380 yuan/ton, at a discount of 70 yuan/ton to the Wuxi A00 price. Aluminum rod processing fees remained stable in many places, while those in Xinjiang, Nanchang, and Wuxi decreased by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. The processing fees of 1A60 - series aluminum rods remained stable, and the processing fees of low - carbon aluminum rods in Yunnan increased by 75 yuan/ton. Environmental inspections have started in the north, mainly targeting the mining end. Some northern alumina plants have undergone phased maintenance, but there has been no large - scale production cut. The warehouse capacity in Xinjiang is approaching full, and the social inventory of alumina has been slightly relieved. Downstream raw material inventory backlogs continue to put pressure on prices. As the expectation of US interest rate cuts declines, the macro - sentiment has become more cautious. The decline in the aluminum price center and the temporary lifting of environmental production restrictions in Henan have led to the partial resumption of processing production lines, increasing the outbound volume of aluminum ingots. The initial tightness in Xinjiang's shipments and the limited decline in molten aluminum have helped the aluminum ingot inventory continue to decline slightly, providing short - term support for the aluminum price, but there is still an upper limit [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.03% to $14,840/ton, while Shanghai nickel rose 0.21% to 117,160 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory increased by 930 tons to 255,450 tons, and SHFE warrants decreased by 396 tons to 33,548 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month spread remained negative, and the import nickel premium remained at 400 yuan/ton. The benchmark price of nickel ore decreased slightly, but the premium remained relatively stable. In the nickel - iron to stainless - steel industry chain, the transaction price center of nickel - iron has shifted downwards, weakening the raw material support. The weekly inventory of stainless steel has increased, and the market is sluggish. In the new energy industry chain, the tight supply of raw materials provides a bottom - support, but the production of ternary precursors in November decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming more apparent. Considering the cost of producing electrowon nickel from SMM's integrated MHP at 110,000 yuan/ton as support, one may consider bottom - fishing and waiting for positive factors to materialize, but be vigilant against macro - disturbances, potential production cuts of primary nickel, and overseas industrial policy adjustments [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 27, 2025, the price of flat - copper was 87,035 yuan/ton, up 425 yuan from the previous day; the flat - copper premium was 55 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong was 78,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong was 2,854 yuan/ton, up 99 yuan; the price of oxygen - free copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai was 87,400 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the price of low - oxygen copper rods (8mm) in Shanghai was 83,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 156,500 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 3,952 tons to 35,873 tons, the total SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 1,196 tons to 110,603 tons, Comex inventory increased by 1,620 tons to 378,900 tons, and the domestic + bonded area social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 28.1 million tons. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 9.3 dollars/ton to - 49.8 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading remained at 45.5 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss decreased by 380 yuan to - 1,210.4 yuan [4]. - **Lead**: On November 27, 2025, the average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 16,960 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the 1 lead ingot premium in East China remained at - 60 yuan; the price difference between the first and second - month contracts of Shanghai lead remained at 0; the price of tax - included recycled refined lead (≥pb99.97) was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of tax - included recycled lead (≥pb98.5) was 16,900 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of tax - included reduced lead in Shandong was 14,350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The arrival price of 50% lead concentrate in Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Gejiu decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the processing fees remained unchanged. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 264,975 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 1,159 tons to 27,495 tons, and the SHFE inventory (weekly) decreased by 3,869 tons to 38,921 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 7.2 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 90 dollars/ton, and the active contract import profit was 68 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Aluminum**: On November 27, 2025, the Wuxi aluminum price was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Nanhai aluminum price was 21,380 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the Nanhai - Wuxi price difference was - 70 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot premium was - 40 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of low - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at 615 yuan/ton, and the price of high - grade bauxite in Shanxi remained at 655 yuan/ton; the FOB price of alumina remained at 320 dollars/ton; the price of Shandong alumina remained at 2,775 yuan/ton; the price difference between domestic and foreign alumina remained at 213 yuan; the price of pre - baked anodes remained at 6,717 yuan/ton; the processing fee of 6063 aluminum (φ90) in Guangdong decreased by 20 yuan to 410 yuan/ton, and the processing fee of 1A60 aluminum rods in Guangdong remained at 350 yuan/ton; the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy in South China remained at 21,350 yuan/ton. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 541,725 tons, SHFE warrants decreased by 76 tons to 66,909 tons, the total SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 8,817 tons to 123,716 tons, the electrolytic aluminum social inventory (weekly) decreased by 1.7 million tons to 59.6 million tons, and the alumina social inventory (weekly) increased by 0.1 million tons to 14.1 million tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 49.65 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 90 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss was - 1,786 yuan/ton, up 67 yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Nickel**: On November 27, 2025, the price of Jinchuan nickel plates was 121,300 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan; the price difference between Jinchuan nickel and Wuxi nickel was 4,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price difference between 1 imported nickel and Wuxi nickel was 650 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan; the price of low - nickel iron (1.5 - 1.8%) remained at 3,300 yuan/ton; the price of 1.4% - 1.6% nickel ore at Rizhao Port remained at 465 yuan/ton, and the price of 1.8% nickel ore from the Philippines at Lianyungang decreased by 1 yuan to 652 yuan/ton; the price of 304 No1 stainless steel in Foshan and Wuxi remained at 12,150 yuan/ton; the price of 304/2B stainless steel coils (both rough - edged and trimmed) in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged; the price of domestic nickel sulfate (≥22%) was 32,300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of domestic 523 - series and 622 - series precursors decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton. The LME registered + cancelled inventory remained at 254,520 tons, SHFE nickel warrants decreased by 396 tons to 33,548 tons, the SHFE nickel inventory (weekly) decreased by 778 tons to 39,795 tons, SHFE stainless - steel warrants decreased by 253 tons to 45,451 tons, the social nickel inventory (weekly) decreased by 855 tons to 52,259 tons, and the social stainless - steel inventory (Foshan + Wuxi) decreased by 12 tons to 940 tons. The 3 - cash spread was - 228 dollars/ton, the CIF bill of lading was 85 dollars/ton, and the active contract import loss was - 1,937 yuan/ton, down 610 yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Zinc**: On November 27, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 22,475 yuan/ton, up 0.5%; the LmeS3 price was 2,505.5 dollars/ton, up 0.0%; the Shanghai - London ratio was 8.97; the near - far month price difference was - 30 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the SMM 0 spot price was 22,450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the SMM 1 spot price was 22,380 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the domestic spot average premium was 40 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the imported zinc average premium was 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME 0 - 3 premium was 2.5 dollars/ton, down 1.75 dollars/ton; the price of zinc alloy Zamak3 was 23,125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of zinc alloy Zamak5 was 23,675 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of zinc oxide (ZnO≥99.7%) remained at 21,500 yuan/ton. The weekly TC of 50% domestic zinc concentrate remained at 3,850 yuan/metal ton, and that of 50% imported zinc concentrate remained at 240 dollars/dry ton. The SHFE inventory (weekly) increased by 793 tons to 6,268 tons, the LME inventory remained at 49,925 tons, and the social inventory (weekly) decreased by 1.13 million tons to 14.04 million tons. The SHFE registered warrants decreased by 2,502 tons to 69,118 tons, the LME registered warrants decreased by 525 tons to 44,425 tons, and the active contract import profit was 0 yuan/ton, up 5,180 yuan from the previous day [7]. - **Tin**: On November 27, 2025, the main contract settlement price was 300,440 yuan/ton, up 1.5%; the LmeS3 price was 27,540 dollars/ton, down 2.1%; the Shanghai - London ratio was 10.91; the near - far month price difference was - 360 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the SMM spot price was 301,800 yuan/ton, up 6,600 yuan; the price of 60% tin concentrate was 287,200 yuan/metal ton, up 1,700 yuan; the price of 40% tin concentrate was 283,200 yuan/metal ton, up 1,700 yuan; the domestic spot average premium remained at 200 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 premium increased by 50 dollars/ton to 185 dollars/ton. The SHFE inventory (weekly) decreased by 29 tons to 6,229 tons, the LME inventory remained at 3,125 tons, the SHFE registered warrants increased by 34 tons to 6,219 tons, the LME registered warrants decreased by 65 tons to 2,780 tons, the active contract import profit was 0 yuan/ton, up 29,136 yuan from the previous day, and the tariff was 3% [7]. 2. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [8][9][11] - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the price differences between the first and second - month contracts of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [16][19][20] - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27] - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34] - **Social Inventory**: Charts illustrate the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40] - **Smelting Profit**: Charts depict the historical trends of the copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fees, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47] 3. Introduction to the Non - Ferrous Metals Team - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the current director of non - ferrous

Group 1: Overall Information - The research report is from the Non - ferrous Team of the Research Center on November 27, 2025, covering copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, lead, tin, industrial silicon, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Copper - This week, copper prices rose first and then fell slightly. Downstream consumption has been weak, and the negotiation of long - term contracts for copper downstream is ongoing. The LME copper had concentrated warehousing, suppressing the Cash - 3M spread. The scrap - refined copper price difference has widened, and the scrap copper subsidy policy in Jiangxi has loosened slightly. The downstream's willingness to place orders rebounds around 85,000 yuan, which may be the psychological price for downstream point - pricing [1] - The changes from November 20 to November 26 include a 5 - unit increase in spot premium, a 70 - unit increase in scrap - refined copper price difference, a 74.73 - unit increase in spot import profit, an 86.48 - unit increase in three - month import profit, a 425 - unit increase in LME cancelled warrants, and a 75 - unit decrease in LME inventory [1] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices continued to decline, and aluminum ingot inventories remained flat. Aluminum rods, sheets, strips, and foils saw slight inventory reduction. Downstream consumption is okay, and the acceptance of high prices has increased. In the short term, it may show a volatile trend. Overseas and domestic production capacities are gradually being put into operation. It is expected that the supply - demand will be relatively loose in early 2026 and then gradually tighten [1][2] - From November 20 to November 26, Shanghai, Yangtze River, and Guangdong aluminum ingot prices decreased by 40, 40, and 30 respectively. The aluminum LME inventory decreased by 2000, and the aluminum LME cancelled warrants decreased by 2000 [1][25] Group 4: Zinc - This week, zinc prices fluctuated. The domestic and imported TC is accelerating its decline. The domestic zinc ore is tightening marginally from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year. The new production of Huoshaoyun zinc ingots started in November, with a monthly output of about 8,000 - 10,000 tons. In December, the maintenance of most smelters is expected to reduce production by more than 10,000 tons. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The domestic social inventory is fluctuating, and the overseas LME inventory is decreasing. The export window has opened. In terms of strategy, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity, and the positive arbitrage opportunity for 01 - 03 [5] - From November 20 to November 26, the Shanghai zinc ingot price remained unchanged, the Tianjin zinc ingot price decreased by 20, the Guangdong zinc ingot price decreased by 10, the LME zinc inventory increased by 1925, and the LME zinc cancelled warrants increased by 2450 [5] Group 5: Nickel - On the supply side, the price of nickel sulfate is relatively firm, and the output of pure nickel has decreased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is generally weak. After the price decline, the premium of Jinchuan nickel has strengthened slightly. Both domestic and overseas inventories are continuously increasing. In the short term, the fundamentals are weak. There are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian ore end, and the policy side still has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [8] - From November 20 to November 26, the price of 1.5% Philippine nickel ore remained unchanged, the price of Shanghai nickel spot increased by 950, the Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 200, the Russian nickel premium decreased by 100, the LME nickel inventory increased by 1038, and the LME nickel cancelled warrants increased by 630 [8] Group 6: Stainless Steel - On the supply side, the production schedule of steel mills in October increased slightly month - on - month. On the demand side, it is mainly for rigid demand. The prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remain stable. The inventory is at a high level. Fundamentally, it remains weak. The Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices. Pay attention to the opportunity of short - selling on rallies [10] - From November 20 to November 26, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, the price of 304 hot - rolled coil increased by 50, the price of 201 cold - rolled coil decreased by 25 [10] Group 7: Lead - This week, lead prices fell, and the sales situation improved. On the supply side, the recovery of recycling profits has stimulated resumption of production, and the production of primary lead remains at a high level. The supply is loose. On the demand side, the battery production rate remained flat this week, and the monthly battery inventory has increased. The demand is expected to weaken. The supply - demand mismatch has been alleviated, and the social inventory has started to increase. It is expected that lead prices will fluctuate narrowly next week, ranging from 17,100 to 17,400 yuan. It is recommended to wait and see the increase in warehouse receipts and the price - support situation of waste batteries [11][13] - From November 20 to November 26, the spot premium decreased by 10, the spot import profit increased by 61.97, the futures import profit increased by 52.91, the LME lead inventory increased by 400, and the LME lead cancelled warrants decreased by 1500 [11] Group 8: Tin - This week, the center of tin prices rose. On the supply side, the processing fee at the ore end remains low, and the rebound space is limited. The maintenance of Yunnan Tin has ended, and the supply has marginally recovered. There are still differences in the output overseas. In the short term, the fundamentals are okay, mainly following the macro - sentiment. In the long - term, the supply will mainly show restorative growth with limited elasticity, and the demand will determine the upside space. It is recommended to hold at low prices close to the cost line or use it as a long - position in non - ferrous metals [16] - From November 20 to November 26, the spot import profit decreased by 4181.61, the spot export profit increased by 3654.24, the LME tin inventory increased by 40, and the LME tin cancelled warrants increased by 105 [16] Group 9: Industrial Silicon - This week, the operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was stable, while some factories in Inner Mongolia and Gansu resumed production. In late November, Sichuan and Yunnan may reduce production by about 20 units. In Q4, the supply - demand of industrial silicon is expected to be in a balanced and slightly loose state. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the over - capacity of industrial silicon is still high, and the operating rate is low. The price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom of the cycle based on the seasonal marginal cost [19] - From November 20 to November 26, the 421 Yunnan basis, 421 Sichuan basis, 553 East China basis, and 553 Tianjin basis all decreased by 60, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 289 [19] Group 10: Lithium Carbonate - Affected by the expected lithium - battery demand and market sentiment, the price of lithium carbonate was strong before. After the exchange adjusted the transaction handling fee and trading limit, the market sentiment declined significantly. The resumption of production of mines in Jiangxi also affected the market. The raw material supply is still tight, and the profit margin of the smelting end is small. The upstream inventory has been significantly reduced, and downstream inquiries have decreased. After the price decline, some downstream enterprises have started post - point - pricing. In the long - term, if the energy - storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the pattern of lithium carbonate may change in the next 1 - 2 years [21] - From November 20 to November 26, the SMM electric - grade lithium carbonate price and SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate price both increased by 750, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 435 [21]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. Core Views Tin - Short - term macro fluctuations are large, but considering the strong fundamentals, maintain a bullish view on tin prices. Hold existing long positions and monitor macro changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [3]. Zinc - The downward pressure on the domestic supply side has eased. The price is likely to fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 22,800 [7]. Copper - In the medium - to - long - term, supply - demand contradictions support the upward movement of the copper price bottom. Pay attention to macro drivers such as overseas interest - rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 85,500 - 86,800 [9]. Nickel - The macro situation is stable, and the fundamentals are weak. However, due to upstream production cuts and low valuations, the price may fluctuate and recover. In the medium term, the supply glut restricts the upside potential, with the main contract reference range of 116,000 - 120,000 [13]. Stainless Steel - Policy - driven factors are difficult to have an immediate impact. The cost support is weakening, and the fundamentals have not improved significantly. The short - term price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 12,200 - 12,600 [15][16]. Aluminum - The alumina price is expected to remain in a bottom - range oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,850 yuan/ton. The electrolytic aluminum price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 21,100 - 21,700 yuan/ton [17]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 20,300 - 20,900 yuan/ton [18]. Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The market is likely to face inventory accumulation pressure in November, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term market may maintain a weak and oscillating adjustment, with the main contract reference range of 86,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton [20]. Polysilicon - The price is expected to remain in a high - level range oscillation, maintaining a forward market structure. For trading strategies, consider going long around 50,000 yuan/ton in the futures market and holding or closing profitable positions for sell put options in the options market [22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin increased by 0.76% to 293,500 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 spread rose by 0.71% to 95.67 dollars/ton [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, tin ore imports increased by 33.49% to 11,632 tons, and SMM refined tin production increased by 53.09% to 16,090 tons [2]. - **Inventory**: SHEF inventory decreased by 0.46% to 6,229 tons, while social inventory increased by 2.83% to 7,654 tons [3]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.27% to 22,380 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 4,280 yuan/ton [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, refined zinc production increased by 2.85% to 61.72 million tons, and the export volume increased by 243.79% to 0.85 million tons [7]. - **Inventory**: China's seven - region zinc ingot social inventory decreased by 3.58% to 15.10 million tons, and LME inventory increased by 0.21% to 4.7 million tons [7]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased by 0.49% to 86,235 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 858 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, electrolytic copper production decreased by 2.62% to 109.16 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 15.61% to 28.21 million tons [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory increased by 8.80% to 70.49 million tons, and SHFE inventory increased by 1.09% to 11.06 million tons [9]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel increased by 0.90% to 117,750 yuan/ton, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 3.57% to 4,350 yuan/ton [13]. - **Cost**: The cost of integrated MHP - produced electrolytic nickel decreased by 4.84% to 110,810 yuan/ton [13]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventory decreased by 1.92% to 39,795 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.18% to 253,482 tons [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 12,700 yuan/ton, and the futures - spot spread decreased by 7.76% to 235 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: China's 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production decreased by 0.72% to 178.70 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 14.43% to 35.81 million tons [15]. - **Inventory**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 0.89% to 49.29 million tons, and SHFE inventory decreased by 0.83% to 6.44 million tons [15]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum decreased by 0.09% to 21,360 yuan/ton, and the import loss was 1,868 yuan/ton [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, alumina production increased by 2.39% to 778.53 million tons, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.52% to 374.21 million tons [17]. - **Inventory**: China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory decreased by 5.11% to 61.30 million tons, and LME inventory decreased by 0.37% to 54.6 million tons [17]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,350 yuan/ton, and the Foshan broken primary aluminum scrap - to - refined spread remained unchanged at 1,749 yuan/ton [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 2.42% to 64.50 million tons, and the import volume decreased by 7.06% to 7.64 million tons [18]. - **Inventory**: The regenerated aluminum alloy weekly social inventory increased by 1.44% to 5.65 million tons [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spreads**: The price of industrial silicon decreased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and the 2512 - 2601 spread decreased by 100% to 0 [19]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% to 45.22 million tons, and the export volume decreased by 35.82% to 4.51 million tons [19]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased by 0.37% to 54.80 million tons, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 2.02% to 20.76 million tons [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.16% to 92,150 yuan/ton, and the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 1.65% to 1,071 dollars/ton [20]. - **Fundamentals**: In October, lithium carbonate production increased by 5.73% to 92,260 tons, and the demand increased by 8.70% to 126,961 tons [20]. - **Inventory**: The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 10.90% to 84,234 tons in October [20]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spreads**: The N - type polysilicon spot price decreased by 0.10% to 52,250 yuan/ton, and the futures main contract decreased by 0.08% to 23,315 yuan/ton [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly polysilicon production increased by 1.12% to 2.71 million tons, and the import volume increased by 11.96% to 0.14 million tons in October [22]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 1.50% to 27.10 million tons, and the polysilicon warehouse receipt decreased by 3.07% to 7,270 [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: Without sudden events, copper prices are expected to show a high - level oscillating market with relatively low volatility. Attention should be paid to overseas financial market performance and domestic inventory performance. The global visible inventory is in an overall accumulation state, close to recent high levels. The high copper price has a restraining effect on terminal copper use, and the "inventory dam" may restrict future copper prices [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina oscillated strongly overnight, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy oscillated weakly. The fundamentals support is below the aluminum price. The environmental protection restrictions in the northern region and the high price have an obvious suppressing effect on demand. The aluminum ingot destocking is blocked, and the proportion of molten aluminum continues to decline. The upward momentum of aluminum alloy is more sufficient, and the refined - scrap price difference is expected to narrow [1][2]. - Nickel: The inventory pressure of primary nickel is becoming more obvious. Although the warehouse receipt inventory has decreased slightly recently, the overall digestion is still difficult, which exerts great pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to whether there is support at 115,000 yuan/ton, and be vigilant against macro - disturbances, possible production cuts of primary nickel, and overseas industrial policy adjustments [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, domestic and foreign copper prices oscillated weakly. The instability of domestic and foreign stock markets reduces the confidence in a sharp rise in copper prices. The overall global visible inventory is in an accumulation state and close to recent high levels. The high copper price restricts terminal copper use, and the inventory may restrict future copper prices. In the absence of sudden events, copper prices will show high - level oscillations with low volatility [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina oscillated strongly, with AO2601 closing at 2,737 yuan/ton, a 0.18% increase, and the position decreased by 420 lots to 412,000 lots. Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, with AL2512 closing at 21,550 yuan/ton, a 0.12% decrease, and the position decreased by 5,342 lots to 333,000 lots. The aluminum alloy also oscillated weakly. The fundamentals and market conditions show complex trends [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 1.26% to 14,455 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.92% to 115,010 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased, and the price of nickel ore and nickel - iron also showed corresponding changes. The inventory pressure of primary nickel is significant, and it is necessary to pay attention to support levels and various influencing factors [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On November 20, 2025, the price of flat - water copper was 86,395 yuan/ton, up 315 yuan from the previous day. The inventory of LME, COMEX, and SHFE showed different changes, with LME and COMEX inventories increasing and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreasing [1][4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River was 17,210 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The inventory of the previous period increased by 4,208 tons on a weekly basis, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 650 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi quotation was 21,570 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the South China quotation was 21,450 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The inventory of the previous period increased by 1,564 tons on a weekly basis, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 76 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel plate was 120,200 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan. The inventory of LME and SHFE decreased, and the inventory of stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price was 22,415 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The inventory of the previous period increased by 793 tons on a weekly basis, and the social inventory decreased by 0.22 million tons on a weekly basis [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price was 293,470 yuan/ton, a 0.4% increase. The inventory of the previous period increased by 266 tons on a weekly basis [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the spot premium trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][10][11]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][17][18]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [39][41][43]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum - silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium - nickel research [46][47].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market in November 2025 saw a decline in both supply and demand, with a larger decline in supply. However, due to the large supply base and the replenishment of the spot market by cancelled warehouse receipts, there is still pressure to accumulate inventory. In December, if the organic silicon industry reduces production, the demand will further decrease, and the pressure to accumulate inventory will increase. The price is expected to fluctuate mainly in the range of 8,500 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and short positions can be gradually closed at low prices [1]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon is mainly stable, the bullish sentiment has subsided, and the futures price has fallen. The component price is gradually rising slowly. The market is currently in a situation of both supply and demand decline, but there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in each link. In the short - term, the polysilicon production is still relatively high under the background of the decline in downstream production schedules. The price is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and attention should be paid to the support of the spot price, the establishment of platform companies, production control, demand orders, and the digestion of warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of November contracts [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The market maintains a supply - demand balance, with short - term supply pressure increasing. The northern spot market is showing signs of bottoming out, while the southern market continues to decline. The price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 2,700 - 2,900 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction trends of high - cost enterprises [3][4]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price is adjusted downward after breaking through 22,000 yuan/ton. The market shows a characteristic of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. In the short term, the price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals. The medium - term supply shortage pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to downstream start - up rates, inventory changes, and overseas policies [3][4]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee continues to be low. The demand in the South China region shows certain resilience, while the demand in the East China region is still sluggish. Considering the strong fundamentals, a bullish view on tin prices is maintained, and previous long positions can be held. Attention should be paid to macro - level changes and the recovery of supply from Myanmar [6][7]. Zinc - The fundamentals of zinc have changed little, and the Shanghai zinc futures fluctuated. The supply is abundant, but the subsequent supply pressure may be limited due to the compression of smelting profits. The demand has not exceeded expectations, and the inventory of finished products in the primary processing industries has been accumulating. The LME inventory has started to accumulate, and the risk of a short squeeze has eased. The zinc ingot export window has been opened, which may boost the domestic zinc price. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate, and a significant upward breakthrough requires an improvement in demand [9]. Copper - The copper price fluctuated weakly. The market's expectation of a December interest rate cut has decreased. The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the downstream's psychological price ceiling for copper has gradually increased. The terminal demand has strong resilience. In the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 85,000 - 86,500 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the marginal changes in demand and overseas interest rate cut expectations [10]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel futures fluctuated at a low level, and the market sentiment was still weak. Macro - level factors have put pressure on the market, and the Indonesian government has restricted new investments in nickel smelters. Downstream enterprises mainly purchase on demand, and the spot trading of refined nickel is fair. The nickel ore market is waiting and watching, and the nickel iron price is under pressure. In the short term, the price is expected to be weak, with the main contract reference range of 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel futures fluctuated narrowly, and the spot market inventory digestion speed needs to be improved. The macro - drive is insufficient, the nickel ore price is stable, the nickel iron price is under pressure, and the chromium iron market is weakly stable. The supply side still has pressure, and the demand is weak. In the short term, the price is expected to be weakly volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,300 - 12,600 yuan/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures were generally strong. The fundamentals are in a situation of both supply and demand growth. The production has increased, and the downstream demand is optimistic with inventory depletion. However, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand after November. The price of lithium ore has risen, and the willingness of miners to sell has increased. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is necessary to be cautious when chasing long positions [18]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of industrial silicon increased by 50 - 150 yuan/ton, and the basis of some varieties changed significantly [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national industrial silicon production increased by 7.46% in November, with different production trends in different regions. The开工率 also showed different trends, and the production of related downstream products such as organic silicon and polysilicon also changed [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of industrial silicon in different regions and the social inventory and warehouse receipt inventory all changed to varying degrees [1]. Polysilicon - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price fell. The price of components gradually increased [2]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: The monthly and weekly production, import, and export data of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the inventory of polysilicon and silicon wafers increased [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - **Price and Spread**: The price of aluminum and alumina changed slightly, and the spread and import and export profitability also changed [3][4]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum increased in October, and the import and export volume of electrolytic aluminum also changed. The开工率 of different aluminum processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained stable [3][4]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot price of tin was stable, and the LME 0 - 3 spread increased significantly [6]. - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of some contracts changed, with some showing increases and some showing decreases [6]. - **Fundamental Data**: The import of tin ore decreased in September, and the production of refined tin increased in October. The开工率 of refined tin production also increased significantly [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of tin in different regions and the social inventory all changed to varying degrees [7]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of zinc increased slightly, and the import and export profitability and monthly spread changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of refined zinc increased in October, the import decreased, and the export increased. The开工率 of different zinc processing industries showed different trends, and the inventory of zinc in different regions changed [9]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of copper increased slightly, and the basis, import and export profitability, and monthly spread changed [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and import of electrolytic copper decreased in October. The开工率 of copper rod production showed different trends, and the inventory of copper in different regions changed [10]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of nickel increased slightly, and the import and export profitability and monthly spread changed [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of refined nickel increased slightly in October, and the import increased significantly. The inventory of nickel in different regions changed [12]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of stainless steel decreased slightly, and the basis and monthly spread changed [16]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of 300 - series stainless steel increased slightly in October, the import increased, and the export decreased. The inventory of stainless steel in different regions changed [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The price of lithium carbonate increased, and the basis and monthly spread changed [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production and demand of lithium carbonate increased in October, and the inventory decreased. The capacity and开工率 also changed [18].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Tin - The current supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees of smelters continue at a low level. The improvement in tin ore supply is expected to be limited this year, with the supply side remaining strong. - In the demand side, tin solder enterprises in South China show certain resilience, while those in East China are more obviously suppressed. - Considering the strong fundamentals, after the market sentiment stabilizes, consider a low - buying strategy. Follow up on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [5]. Zinc - The fundamentals change little, with the Shanghai zinc market oscillating. The supply - loosening logic has basically materialized, and the supply - side pressure may be limited in the future. - The demand side shows no unexpected performance. The export of zinc ingots may boost domestic zinc prices. - The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the risk of a squeeze on LME is alleviated. In the future, the fundamentals may provide limited elasticity for the continuous upward movement of Shanghai zinc, and it may oscillate in the short term [7]. Aluminum - The alumina market maintains a supply - demand surplus, with the price in a weak oscillation. Pay attention to the production - cut trends of high - cost enterprises. - The Shanghai aluminum market shows a pattern of strong macro - drive and weak fundamental support. The price will fluctuate between macro - positive factors and weak fundamentals in the short term [9]. Copper - The copper market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the price oscillates. The macro - situation is in a "vacuum period" in November, and the subsequent interest - rate cut expectation is unclear. - The supply of copper ore remains tight, and the downstream has a high psychological price limit for copper. The medium - and long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward movement of the copper price bottom [10]. Aluminum Alloy - The casting aluminum alloy market adjusts following the aluminum price. The cost - side support is significant, and the supply is restricted by raw materials. - The demand from downstream die - casting enterprises is weak. In the short term, the ADC12 price will remain strong, and follow up on changes in raw material supply and demand [12]. Nickel - The Shanghai nickel market breaks downward, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. Funds are using nickel for short - hedging. - The downstream purchasing enthusiasm is high at low prices, but the overall fundamentals improve slightly, and the price is expected to be weak in the short term [14]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market is weak, with few inquiries and limited transactions. The macro - drive is insufficient, and the supply - side pressure remains, while the demand is weak. - In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate weakly, and follow up on steel - mill production cuts and nickel - iron prices [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market oscillates at a relatively high level. The weekly production shows a small increase, and the downstream demand is optimistic, with social inventory decreasing. - In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate, and follow up on the resumption of production by large enterprises and changes in demand [18]. Industrial Silicon - The spot price of industrial silicon is partially reduced, and the futures price oscillates. If the silicone industry reduces production, the inventory - accumulation pressure on industrial silicon will increase. - The market is expected to oscillate at a low level, with the price fluctuating between 8500 - 9500 yuan/ton [20]. Polysilicon - The spot price of polysilicon stabilizes, but the demand is weak, and the futures price oscillates downward. The market maintains a situation of both supply and demand decline, with inventory - accumulation expectations in each link. - The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and pay attention to the support from the spot market and the digestion of warehouse receipts [21]. Summary by Directory Tin - **Price and Spread**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin both decreased by - 0.17%. The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 14.29%. The import loss decreased by 3.34%, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, the import of tin ore decreased by - 15.13%. In October, the production of SMM refined tin increased by 53.09%, and the average operating rate increased by 53.23% [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHEF inventory weekly increased by 4.44%, and the social inventory increased by 5.83% [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by - 0.36%, and the import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads increased [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of refined zinc increased by 2.85%. In September, the import decreased by - 11.61%, and the export increased by 696.78%. The operating rates of some processing industries changed slightly [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions decreased by - 1.88%, and the LME inventory increased by 8.88% [7]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum decreased by - 0.79%, and the import loss decreased. Some monthly spreads changed [9]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of alumina increased by 2.39%, and the production of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.52%. The import and export of electrolytic aluminum also increased [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.03%, and the LME inventory decreased by - 0.39% [9]. Copper - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper decreased by - 0.58%, and the refined - scrap spread decreased by - 16.58%. The import loss decreased [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of electrolytic copper decreased by - 2.62%, and in September, the import increased by 26.50%. The operating rates of copper rod production increased [10]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased by - 1.07%, and the LME inventory increased by 3.27% [10]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by - 0.46%, and some refined - scrap spreads decreased [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by - 2.42%, and the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.06%. The import of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the export decreased [12]. - **Inventory**: The weekly social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by - 0.18%, and the daily inventories in some regions changed slightly [12]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel decreased by - 1.47%, and the import loss decreased. The cost of some production methods of electrowon nickel changed [14]. - **Supply and Inventory**: The production of refined nickel in China increased by 0.84%, and the import increased by 124.36%. The SHFE inventory increased by 9.11%, and the social inventory increased by 8.10% [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) increased by 0.40%, and the price of some raw materials decreased slightly. Some monthly spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China increased by 0.38%, and in Indonesia increased by 0.36%. The import of stainless steel increased, and the export decreased [15]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel increased by 1.73%, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by - 1.53% [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.45%, and the price of some lithium - related raw materials increased [18]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 5.73%, and the demand increased by 8.70%. The import decreased by - 10.30%, and the export decreased by - 59.12% [18]. - **Inventory**: In October, the total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by - 10.90%, and the downstream inventory decreased by - 13.50% [18]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The price of some industrial silicon products decreased slightly, and some monthly spreads changed [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The national production of industrial silicon increased by 7.46%, and the production in some regions changed. The production of organic silicon DMC decreased slightly, and the production of polysilicon increased [20]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory decreased by - 1.09%, and the warehouse - receipt inventory decreased by - 1.41% [20]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable, and the futures price decreased by - 0.85%. Some monthly spreads increased [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: The weekly production of polysilicon decreased by - 0.74%, and the monthly production increased by 3.08%. The import increased, and the export and net - export decreased [21]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 3.09%, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased by 5.14% [21].