有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 8 月 12 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色维持偏强震荡 核心观点 沪铜 今日铜价小幅震荡上行，持仓量也小幅上升，主力期价站上 7.9 万关口。宏观层面，内外宏观氛围较好，有利于铜价上行。产业淡 季，库存小幅上升，9-10 月差持续走弱。宏观氛围较好的情况下， 铜价或维持强势运行。 沪铝 今日沪铝震荡上行，持仓量小幅上升，主力期价站上 2.07 万关 口。宏观层面，国内氛围回暖，利好铝价。产业层面，下游淡季，电 解铝持续累库。宏观利好，产业利空，铝价或偏强震荡。 有色金属 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper showed narrow - range fluctuations. Macro - factors include market attention on US trade negotiation results and recession concerns from US economic data. Fundamentally, there are still differences in views on the future of US copper. Excessive inventory in the US may lead to continuous weakness in US copper, causing inventory relocation risks and impacting global copper prices. The approaching "Golden September" peak season in China provides some price support, and the probability of a sharp short - term decline is low. Currently, copper maintains a relative balance between bulls and bears, waiting for external factors to break the situation [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina fluctuated strongly, while沪铝 and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. In August, the profits in the aluminum industry shifted from upstream to downstream. Alumina's复产 rhythm increases the expectation of oversupply, with callback pressure but limited deep - decline space due to short - term cost support. The signing of an aluminum cooperation agreement between India and Russia raises the expectation of US tariff increases on the two countries, increasing trade cost concerns. As "Golden September" approaches, the stocking in the white - goods and automotive sectors starts in advance. The supply - demand of electrolytic aluminum shows signs of change, with the spot price changing from premium to discount. Aluminum prices are in a stage of "time for space" with an expectation of continued recovery. Aluminum alloy is in a tug - of - war between cost and demand, waiting for the peak - season guidance [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel rose 1.39% and沪镍 rose 0.66%. LME inventory decreased, while domestic SHFE仓单 increased. The raw material prices of stainless steel showed differentiation, and the stainless - steel inventory decreased for four consecutive weeks with a slightly slower de - stocking speed. The overall fundamentals changed little and remained in a volatile state [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight narrow - range fluctuations. Macro - factors and US copper inventory issues impact the market. The approaching peak season in China provides support, and the price is in a balanced state [1]. - **Aluminum**: Different products in the aluminum industry showed different trends. There are changes in industry profits, trade cost concerns, and supply - demand signs. Aluminum alloy is in a cost - demand tug - of - war [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight price increases, changes in inventory, and stable fundamentals with a volatile trend [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: Price changes in various copper products, inventory changes in different locations, and changes in other indicators such as LME0 - 3 premium and CIF提单 [3]. - **Lead**: Stable average price, changes in升贴水 and沪铅 spreads, and changes in lead - related prices and inventory [3]. - **Aluminum**: Price changes in aluminum products, raw materials, and downstream products. Inventory changes in different locations and升贴水 changes [4]. - **Nickel**: Price changes in nickel products, raw materials, and stainless - steel products. Inventory changes in different locations and升贴水 changes [4]. - **Zinc**: Price changes, including主力结算价, LmeS3, and现货 prices. Inventory changes and升贴水 changes [5]. - **Tin**: Price changes, including主力结算价, LmeS3, and现货 prices. Inventory changes and升贴水 changes [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **3.3.1 Spot升贴水**: Charts show the spot升贴 water trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - **3.3.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts show the near - far month spreads of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][17][19]. - **3.3.3 LME Inventory**: Charts show the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [21][23][25]. - **3.3.4 SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [28][30][32]. - **3.3.5 Social Inventory**: Charts show the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [34][36][38]. - **3.3.6 Smelting Profit**: Charts show the copper concentrate index,粗铜加工费, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [41][43][45]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, a senior researcher with rich experience and multiple awards; Wang Heng, who focuses on aluminum - silicon research; and Zhu Xi, who focuses on lithium - nickel research [48][49].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bias towards a certain direction but limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars, representing a clearer multi/short trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ☆☆☆ (White star, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term multi/short trend and poor operability on the trading floor, for observation only) [1] - Lead: ☆☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The market shows different trends and investment opportunities for various non - ferrous metals. For each metal, factors such as macro - economy, supply - demand relationship, and inventory levels are considered to make investment suggestions [1][2][3] Summary by Metals Copper - Friday saw Shanghai copper continue to show a fluctuating positive line. The current copper price is 78,530 yuan, with a premium of 120 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 40 yuan in Guangdong. The copper market trading is dull, and it has basically been operating near the MA60 moving average this week. The market is not strongly affected by the new round of US tariffs and mainly tracks macro - economic indicators. The number of initial jobless claims in the US soared last week. Hold previous short positions [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuates in a narrow range, and the spot discount in East China remains at 50 yuan. Consumption is in the off - season recently, but the output of aluminum rods has increased month - on - month. The peak of aluminum ingot social inventory may appear in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot quotation remains flat at 19,800 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry is poor, but it has certain toughness relative to the aluminum price. Pay attention to the possible narrowing of the spread between the spot and AL. The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the balance is in a surplus state. The price of bauxite in Guinea is firm during the rainy season, corresponding to a cost of 3000 - 3100 yuan in Shanxi and Henan in China. Alumina is under pressure to fluctuate, but the downward space is also relatively limited [2] Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The expectations of domestic fiscal policy and the Fed's interest rate cut are relatively positive, and there is insufficient resonance between the macro - situation and the fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand. The weighted position of Shanghai zinc has dropped to 209,000 lots, and the capital congestion has significantly declined. Fundamentally, it is strong overseas and weak at home. The rebound of LME zinc drives the domestic market, but the downstream's willingness to take delivery at high prices is insufficient. The zinc price rebound is regarded as under pressure. Wait for the opportunity to short - allocate above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - The lead price fluctuates at a low level, and the capital trading is relatively light. It is difficult to purchase waste batteries at low prices, and the recycled lead producers are reluctant to sell due to losses. The refined - scrap price difference is 25 yuan/ton. The downstream's willingness to take delivery is poor, and the rigid demand tends to purchase primary lead with higher cost - effectiveness. There are limited short - term contradictions in the lead market. The overall supply of lead ingots in August is expected to increase month - on - month. Some primary lead smelters have regular maintenance plans from the end of August to the beginning of September. The peak - season consumption still needs to be verified by social inventory. Wait for the evolution of contradictions. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,600 - 17,500 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounds, and the market trading is active. As the domestic anti - involution theme comes to an end, nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will accelerate its return to fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price of high - nickel iron is quoted at 915.6 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has significantly weakened recently. In terms of inventory, the nickel - iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Pay attention to the signs of the end of de - stocking. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and actively intervene in short positions [6] Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuates and closes with a negative line at 268,000 yuan, and the current tin price is reported at 268,000 yuan, with a real - time premium of 170 yuan over the delivery month. The overseas tin price is supported by low visible inventory and the decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, pay attention to the changes in high social inventory under the game between the major smelters' maintenance plans and weak consumption. Observe or choose the opportunity for short - term long positions [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounds with increasing volume, and the market trading is active. The price structure shows weakness in the near - term contracts, and the spot price is quoted at 72,000 yuan. The downstream's inquiry behavior is active, and the spot market trading has improved. The total market inventory has slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 3000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory has increased by 3000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory has decreased by 1000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious, and the downstream has increased the intensity of replenishment during the price correction. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 745 US dollars, which has significantly followed the decline of the lithium carbonate price. The smelting output has decreased by 8% week - on - week. After the significant rebound of the lithium carbonate futures price, the game value has decreased. Look for high - level short - selling positions [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon closes slightly higher, and the spot - end manufacturers' quotations remain stable. Currently, the market supply pressure is still significant. It is expected that the output in August will increase by 21,700 - 31,700 tons month - on - month. Among them, the operating rates in Sichuan and Yunnan are continuously increasing, and large - scale factories in Xinjiang also have复产 arrangements. Although both polysilicon and organic silicon downstream have production - increasing expectations, the expected increment is still less than that of industrial silicon. There are still policy expectations, and combined with the large decline in the previous disk, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures touched above 49,000 yuan/ton during the day and then rebounded, closing in the positive territory at the end of the session. In the spot market, the average price of polysilicon multi - product feedstock remains stable at 47,000 yuan/ton (SMM). The upward pressure is large, the downstream component price has decreased, and the terminal still resists high prices. Overall, there are still policy expectations, the spot price increase has slowed down, and the trend may maintain range - bound fluctuations [10]

| | | 有色金属周度观点 国发期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 国授期货 | 研究院有色全属团队 | 2025/8/5 | | 序号 | 品产 | 主要观点(最新逻辑变化) | | | | 衡向铜价震高下调。1) 情绪:美国浸防段232铜芙股征收对象大超预期,夹伦街老瑟利逻排破裂. 夹盘暴跌, 恰老目归到100美元:伦导沪 铜廷徐震荡。7月主要经济体制造业IIII萎缩为主:IIF表示受益关极不确定带来的进口图货需求,上调今年经济增速预期。25至35, 如预期"按兵不动",且然美国6月核心死后同比上激2.8%,创四个月新高,但英国过去两个月非袁就业人数大幅下滑,市场认为8月下调利 | | 1 | | 率为大概率事件,降息交易情绪升温。2)团内供藏:沪桐减仓明显,跌破460日均线后,在7.8万暂获支撑,市况仍属该季。周二观阴报 | | 월 | | 78615元,上科钢开水130元,广东贴水55元,周一胡风铜社库增加300吨至13.43万吨,因产货源与进口铜到货均有增加,消费相对一般, | | | | 原材报价仍紧。3》耗外。伦导体名和一13.95万吨，IDE0=3月贴水32类元。 智利Co ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The non - ferrous metals sector is generally in an adjustment phase, following the profit - taking adjustment of domestic anti - involution stocks. The overall non - ferrous metals market continues to fluctuate and consolidate. Attention should be paid to the changes in the manufacturing industry and the lagged impact of tariff increases after the trade situation becomes clear [12]. - The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, which may boost the US dollar in the short term. The progress of China - US trade negotiations also needs to be closely monitored [12]. - The domestic policy benefits have led to a rotational upward movement in the industrial product sector, but the sustainability and intensity of the spillover effect are average, and the impact during adjustments is also limited. Future attention should be paid to specific policies and their implementation [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Operating Logic and Investment Recommendations for Non - Ferrous Metals 3.1.1 Macro Logic - The non - ferrous metals sector is adjusting, and the varieties that had a relatively obvious weekly rebound last week are also those with relatively large adjustment amplitudes. The market continues to focus on China's future policy direction and the progress of China - US trade negotiations [12]. - The US and the EU have reached a trade agreement, covering 15% of EU goods exported to the US. The US has reached agreements with important trading partners, which may boost the US dollar in the short term [12]. 3.1.2 Investment Recommendations for Different Metals - **Copper**: The COMEX copper premium over LME copper may decline. Although the "siphon effect" in the US market has ended, the non - US market inventory is low. The domestic copper market is expected to show a situation of weak supply and strong demand, but the short - term upward drive for copper prices is lacking. It is recommended to sell near - month slightly out - of - the - money put options [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc follows the adjustment. The supply of zinc ingots is increasing, and the demand shows mixed trends. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies [14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The market sentiment has declined. For electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach and buy out - of - the - money put options for protection [6]. - **Tin**: The fundamentals of tin are weak in both supply and demand. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach and pay attention to the situation of the ore end and macro - impacts. Buying out - of - the money put options is also suggested [7]. - **Lead**: The lead price is in a consolidation phase. The social inventory is rising, but the demand is recovering. It is recommended to go long on dips and use a wide - range option straddle strategy [8]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The overall supply of refined nickel is in surplus. Nickel and stainless steel are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to be bearish on rallies for nickel and take a short - selling approach within the range for stainless steel [9]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are presented, including copper (- 0.32% to 79000), zinc (- 1.05% to 22645), aluminum (- 0.70% to 20615), etc. [17] 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis - Information on the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is provided, including the percentage change, net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position difference, changes in net long and net short positions, and influencing factors for each variety such as Shanghai Aluminum, Shanghai Gold, etc. [19] 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, such as the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price (- 0.48% to 79260 yuan/ton), the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot average price (- 0.57% to 22630 yuan/ton), etc. [20] 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For each metal (copper, zinc, aluminum, etc.), relevant industry chain charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Charts related to the arbitrage of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, the Shanghai zinc - Shanghai lead price difference, etc. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - Charts related to the options of various non - ferrous metals are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, trading volume and open interest changes, and the ratio of call to put open interest.

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Views - The current demand for copper is temporarily weak due to the downstream off - season and weakened trans - shipment momentum, but the balance will be relatively tight after August. The annual apparent demand for copper is expected to be in the range of 4.8% - 5.5%. A short - term cautious but medium - to long - term bullish view on Shanghai copper is maintained, and virtual inventory can be considered to be established in the third quarter [1]. - For aluminum, supply has increased slightly, and the demand in August is expected to be in the seasonal off - season. There will be a slight inventory build - up in July and August. Pay attention to demand and consider inter - month and domestic - foreign reverse arbitrage [1][2]. - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly this week. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Short - term advice is to wait and see, hold domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. - For nickel, the supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel to stainless steel [6]. - The fundamentals of stainless steel are weak. With the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - environment, pay attention to the policy trend [6][7]. - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in July, but inventory build - up is still expected. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell lightly on rallies [12]. - For industrial silicon, the production of Hesheng may have a significant impact on the supply - demand balance. The market is currently in a de - stocking stage, and the price trend depends on the resumption of production [15]. - The price of lithium carbonate has risen due to resource - end disturbances. The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the middle - link. The long - term situation depends on whether the resource - end risks are resolved [17]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot price of Shanghai copper decreased from 250 to 95, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1699. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [1]. - **Market Analysis**: The current demand is affected by the off - season and weak trans - shipment. The annual apparent demand is expected to be in the 4.8% - 5.5% range. A short - term cautious but medium - to long - term bullish view is maintained [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai aluminum ingots decreased by 120, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased slightly, and demand in August is expected to be in the off - season. There will be a slight inventory build - up in July and August [1][2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai zinc ingots decreased by 120, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained unchanged. Other indicators such as import profit and LME inventory also changed [5]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is seasonally weak. Short - term advice is to wait and see, hold domestic - foreign positive arbitrage, and pay attention to inter - month positive arbitrage opportunities [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of Shanghai nickel decreased by 1500, and the inventory of LME increased by 114. Other indicators such as import profit and LME C - 3M also changed [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of pure nickel remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory is stable. Pay attention to the opportunity of the shrinking ratio of nickel to stainless steel [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of 201 cold - rolled coil increased by 50. Other indicators such as waste stainless steel price also changed [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals are weak. With the spread of anti - involution expectations in the short - term macro - environment, pay attention to the policy trend [6][7]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot price premium increased by 5, and the inventory of LME decreased by 2625. Other indicators such as import profit and LME C - 3M also changed [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly in July, but inventory build - up is still expected. Lead prices are expected to fluctuate between 16800 - 17500 next week [9]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the spot import profit increased by 239.11, and the inventory of LME increased by 80. Other indicators such as LME C - 3M also changed [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply may decline slightly, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short - sell lightly on rallies [12]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the 421 Yunnan basis increased from - 1105 to - 165, and the 553 East China basis increased from 45 to 1035. The number of warehouse receipts increased [15]. - **Market Analysis**: The production of Hesheng has a significant impact on the supply - demand balance. The market is currently in a de - stocking stage, and the price trend depends on the resumption of production [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Inventory Data**: From July 22 - 28, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 1000, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 280. Other indicators such as basis also changed [17]. - **Market Analysis**: The price has risen due to resource - end disturbances. The current situation is strong supply and demand, with significant inventory pressure in the middle - link. The long - term situation depends on whether the resource - end risks are resolved [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper slightly increased its positions and rose, with the main contract price briefly reaching the 80,000 yuan mark at the end of the session. Macroscopically, the market showed a bullish sentiment, and non - ferrous metals as a whole were in a strong oscillation. Industrially, on Thursday, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons from Monday. Against the backdrop of continuous macro - economic improvement, copper prices are likely to maintain a strong trend [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated weakly, and its open interest continued to decline. Macroscopically, the market showed a bullish sentiment, and non - ferrous metals as a whole were in a strong oscillation, but aluminum underperformed in the sector. Industrially, on Thursday, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons from Monday. In the short term, there are macro - level positives and industry - level negatives. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel oscillated strongly, with little change in open interest, and the main contract price reached the 124,000 yuan mark. Macroscopically, the market showed a bullish sentiment, and non - ferrous metals as a whole were in a strong oscillation, and nickel outperformed in the sector. Industrially, the trading atmosphere in the downstream stainless - steel market improved, which is a short - term positive for nickel prices. Technically, nickel prices increased in positions and broke through the high point in early July, with strong upward momentum, and are expected to maintain a strong trend [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: US policy changes have affected the recycling market. Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports starting from August 1, and China and the US jointly declared to cut reciprocal tariffs within 90 days. The new tariffs have led to more aluminum scrap being supplied to Mexican consumers. In the US, most aluminum rolling mills have sufficient recycled aluminum reserves, and the price of recycled aluminum scrap remained flat. In Canada, the flow of recycled aluminum decreased, and the factory output shrank significantly. In Thailand, many recycling and processing plants stopped operations due to stricter inspections of illegal waste dumping. On July 24, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic copper was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 22,600 tons from the 17th and 3,700 tons from the 21st [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 24, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from the 17th and 14,000 tons from the 21st [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 24, for the refined nickel Shanghai market's mainstream reference contract, the Jinchuan electrolytic nickel's mainstream premium was +1,900 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,620 yuan/ton; Russian nickel's mainstream premium was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,270 yuan/ton; Norwegian nickel's mainstream premium was +3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,320 yuan/ton; and nickel beans' mainstream premium was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,820 yuan/ton [10]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: Multiple charts are provided, including copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [37][41][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by factors such as inventory changes, trade policies, supply and demand fundamentals, and market sentiment. Different metals show different trends, with some expected to be weak, some to be volatile, and others to be affected by short - term factors [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: LME copper closed down 0.21% to $9,637/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 77,950 yuan/ton. Trump's 50% copper tariff announcement will put pressure on LME and Shanghai copper prices [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 10,525 tons to 121,000 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts slightly increased to 50,000 tons [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The copper price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend due to the tariff impact and the off - season [2]. - **Price Range**: The Shanghai copper main contract is expected to operate in the range of 77,200 - 78,600 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M in the range of $9,500 - 9,720/ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: LME aluminum closed down 0.29% to $2,575/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20,425 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.65 tons to 33.6 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.7 tons to 42.4 tons [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The short - term aluminum price may be volatile due to the low inventory and the off - season [4]. - **Price Range**: The domestic main contract is expected to operate in the range of 20,200 - 20,550 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of $2,540 - 2,600/ton [4]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.20% to 16,911 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $2.5 to $1,986/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange lead ingot futures inventory was 58,100 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 271,100 tons [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The lead price is expected to be weak due to the relatively loose supply [6]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.21% to 22,023 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $12.5 to $2,699/ton [8]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased to 93,100 tons [8]. - **Market Outlook**: In the long - term, the zinc price is expected to be bearish, while in the short - term, it is expected to be volatile [8]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The tin price was in a weak and volatile trend [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply shortage persists, and the demand is weak. The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces is 54.07% [9]. - **Inventory**: The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9,644 tons [9]. - **Market Outlook**: The tin price is expected to be in a weak and volatile trend due to the expected resumption of production in Myanmar [9]. - **Price Range**: The domestic tin price is expected to operate in the range of 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and the LME tin price in the range of $31,000 - 35,000/ton [9]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: The nickel price fell and adjusted [10]. - **Supply Impact**: The fire at Zhejiang Zhongneng has limited impact on pure nickel supply [10]. - **Market Outlook**: The nickel iron price is expected to continue to fall, and it is recommended to short the nickel price at high levels [10]. - **Price Range**: The Shanghai nickel main contract is expected to operate in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and LME nickel 3M in the range of $14,500 - 16,000/ton [10]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price Movement**: The MMLC index was flat, and the LC2509 contract closed down 0.36% [12]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand imbalance persists, and the price is expected to be affected by news and market sentiment [12]. - **Price Range**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium 2509 contract is expected to operate in the range of 64,800 - 67,600 yuan/ton [12]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 1.56% to 3,094 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,500 tons [15]. - **Market Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to short at high levels [15]. - **Price Range**: The domestic main contract AO2509 is expected to operate in the range of 2,850 - 3,300 yuan/ton [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,670 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [17]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 116,750 tons [17]. - **Market Outlook**: The stainless steel price is expected to be volatile due to the off - season demand [17]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.15% to 19,820 yuan/ton [19]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 40 tons to 28,000 tons [19]. - **Market Outlook**: The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to face resistance due to the off - season and the aluminum price pressure [19].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - **Copper**: Copper prices stabilized and rebounded today with a continuous decline in open interest. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, but the announcement of a 50% import tariff on copper by Trump put pressure on copper prices. The market may worry about the closure of the US import window and a potential decline in non - US copper demand. Technically, there is strong support at the June price center [5]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices increased with open interest last night and the main contract price fluctuated narrowly around 20,700 yuan today. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved, and the rise in the black and production - cut sectors was beneficial to aluminum prices. On July 10th, the electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 455,000 tons. With improved domestic macro - expectations, downstream industries' willingness to replenish inventory increased. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the June high, and the price is expected to remain strong [6]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices increased with open interest in the afternoon and the main contract price stood above 121,000 yuan. The domestic macro - atmosphere improved. Upstream mines were stable, downstream expectations improved, stainless steel strengthened, and downstream demand might improve, supporting nickel prices. Technically, the price stood above 120,000 yuan again and is expected to remain strong driven by the macro - environment [7]. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Trump announced on July 9th that a 50% tariff on all imported copper to the US would be imposed starting from August 1st. In Q2 2025, the I, II, and III phase concentrators of Kamoa - Kakula processed 3.62 million tons of ore, producing 112,000 tons of copper, a year - on - year increase of 11%. In the first half of 2025, it produced 245,000 tons of copper [9]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai Futures Exchange listed the first recycled metal variety, cast aluminum alloy futures and options, on June 10th. As of July 9th, after 22 trading days, the cast aluminum alloy futures had a cumulative trading volume of 205,700 lots, with a post - market open interest of 10,200 lots, equivalent to 102,000 tons of spot, accounting for about 27% of the domestic monthly consumption of cast aluminum alloy. The cast aluminum alloy options had a cumulative trading volume of 41,500 lots and a post - market open interest of 6,000 lots [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 10th, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 2050 yuan/ton at a price of 121,740 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 550 yuan/ton at 120,240 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 2750 yuan/ton at 122,440 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton at 118,790 yuan/ton [9]. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][12][13] - **Aluminum**: Charts cover aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and alumina inventory [24][26][28] - **Nickel**: Charts involve nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - **Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated upward with a slight decline in open interest. The domestic macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the stock and commodity markets rose generally. After the futures price declined, the downstream's willingness to replenish inventory increased, and the spread between July and August strengthened. With short - term macro improvement and enhanced industrial support, the futures price stabilized and rebounded at the 20 - day moving average and is expected to continue to rebound [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum showed a strong - side fluctuation. The domestic macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the stock and commodity markets rose generally. Downstream entered the off - season and had a fear - of - high - price sentiment, causing the destocking of Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory to slow down. Technically, the futures price faced some pressure at the June high, and the support at the 20 - day moving average should be watched [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel dived in the morning session, and the main futures price fluctuated narrowly above 120,000. The domestic macro - atmosphere warmed up, and the stock and commodity markets rose generally, but nickel performed weakly in the non - ferrous sector. Fundamentally, with the domestic macro improvement and the strengthening of stainless steel, downstream demand may improve, supporting the nickel price. Technically, the support at the 120,000 mark should be watched [7]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: Recently, many copper enterprises announced their production and operation conditions in the first half of 2025, with production and operation continuing to be stable and good, achieving the "double - half" goal and laying a solid foundation for the full - year goal. On July 7, Mysteel's domestic market electrolytic copper spot inventory was 147,500 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons compared with the 30th and an increase of 18,100 tons compared with the 3rd [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 7, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 465,000 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons compared with the 3rd and an increase of 3,000 tons compared with the 30th [9]. - **Nickel**: On July 8, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the Shanghai nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was + 1,950 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,190 yuan/ton; that of Russian nickel was + 500 yuan/ton, with a price of 120,740 yuan/ton; that of Norwegian nickel was + 2,750 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,990 yuan/ton; and that of nickel beans was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 119,340 yuan/ton [10]. Group 4: Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [11][13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina price trend, and alumina inventory [23][25][27]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [35][37][39].