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有色日报:有色震荡运行-20250623
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 11:38
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Today, copper prices showed a weak oscillation, rising in the afternoon and then falling back. Despite the tense Middle - East situation, it didn't significantly impact domestic risk appetite. On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 131,900 tons, a decrease of 10,500 tons from last week. After the price decline last week, the industry's replenishment willingness increased, and the 7 - 8 month spread strengthened. Overseas, the premium of LME copper has been strengthening, indicating a shortage of overseas electrolytic copper. If the Middle - East situation doesn't escalate, copper prices are expected to stabilize and rise [5]. - **Aluminum**: In the morning, aluminum prices rose and then fell back, continuing to rise during the day. The weakening of the 7 - 8 month spread last week indicates a weakening industrial support. On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 462,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week. The recent price fluctuations with increasing positions may suggest an increase in the hedging willingness of upstream electrolytic aluminum plants. Technically, the main futures price broke below the 5 - day moving average, and attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 10 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, nickel prices decreased with increasing positions, and the main futures price once fell below 117,000. Short - term macro conditions have turned cold, and nickel's fundamentals are weak. Upstream, nickel mines in the Philippines and Indonesia remain strong; downstream, stainless steel is weak, and nickel sulfate is stable. It is expected that nickel prices will continue to decline, and attention should be paid to the support at the low point in early April [7]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory was 131,900 tons, a decrease of 17,400 tons from June 19 and 10,500 tons from June 16. Recently, 188 tons of copper from the Democratic Republic of the Congo passed customs at Ningbo Customs and entered production at Jin Tian Copper Industry. Jin Tian Copper Industry's output value in 2024 exceeded 120 billion yuan, a 12.4% increase. From January to May this year, Ningbo's copper imports from Africa were worth 9.02 billion yuan, an increase of 78.8% [9]. - **Aluminum**: On June 23, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum inventory was 462,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from last week and 12,000 tons from June 19 [6][10]. - **Nickel**: On June 23, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE Nickel 2507 contract. The mainstream premiums and discounts were as follows: Jinchuan electrolytic nickel +2,600 - +2,900 yuan/ton, Russian nickel +500 - +700 yuan/ton, nickel beans - 1,000 - - 800 yuan/ton, Bofeng nickel - 50 - +50 yuan/ton, Sumitomo nickel +2,400 - +2,500 yuan/ton, and Norwegian nickel +2,700 - +2,800 yuan/ton [11]. 3.2 Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts of copper basis, domestic visible inventory (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper注销仓单比例, month spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warehouse receipt inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report contains charts of aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, month spread, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [26][28][30]. - **Nickel**: The report presents charts of nickel basis, LME inventory, LME nickel trend, month spread, SHFE inventory, and nickel ore port inventory [38][40][42].
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250623
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 02:51
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may fluctuate and rise in the short - term, with the Shanghai copper main contract running in the range of 77,500 - 79,600 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M in the range of 9,400 - 9,800 dollars/ton [2]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward trend in the short - term, with the domestic main contract running in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2,480 - 2,620 dollars/ton [4]. - Lead prices are expected to remain weak due to weak downstream consumption [6]. - Zinc prices have a large downward risk, but the start time of the market is uncertain [7]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31,000 - 33,000 dollars/ton in the LME market [9]. - Nickel prices may fall, and it is advisable to short at high prices, with the short - term Shanghai nickel main contract running in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M in the range of 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [10]. - Lithium carbonate prices may face selling pressure and need to be vigilant against weakening risks, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange main contract running in the range of 58,000 - 59,600 yuan/ton [12]. - Alumina prices are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and it is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 running in the range of 2,750 - 3,100 yuan/ton [15]. - The subsequent trend of the stainless - steel market depends on whether the downstream demand can start substantial restocking [17]. Summary by Metals Copper - Last week, LME copper rose slightly by 0.13% to 9,660 dollars/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,380 yuan/ton [2]. - Three major exchanges' inventories decreased by 10,000 tons, with SHFE inventory down 1,000 tons to 100,000 tons, LME inventory down 15,000 tons to 99,000 tons, and COMEX inventory up 7,000 tons to 183,000 tons [2]. - Shanghai bonded area inventory increased by 4,000 tons, and copper spot imports had a large loss [2]. - LME cash/3M premium widened to 275 dollars/ton, and domestic basis quotes rose after the contract change [2]. - The domestic refined - scrap copper price difference narrowed to 920 yuan/ton, and the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises declined [2]. - The operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises rebounded, and demand improved slightly [2]. Aluminum - Last week, LME aluminum rose 2.34% to 2,561 dollars/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract rose 0.12% [4]. - Domestic aluminum ingot inventory continued to decline, with social inventory at 449,000 tons (down 11,000 tons week - on - week) and bonded area inventory at 114,000 tons (down 5,000 tons week - on - week) [4]. - LME aluminum inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 343,000 tons, and Cash/3M turned to a premium [4]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production continued to rise slightly, and aluminum plant inventory declined slightly [4]. - The operating rate of aluminum products fluctuated and declined, with some products' operating rates falling and others remaining stable [4]. Lead - 3S fell 10 dollars to 1,982 dollars/ton, and the total position was 153,500 lots [6]. - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,725 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton [6]. - Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 51,200 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 287,400 tons [6]. - The export growth rate of lead - acid batteries declined significantly, and downstream consumption remained weak [6]. - The profit of primary lead smelting increased, and the operating rate rose to a historical high of about 70%, while the profit of secondary lead remained low [6]. Zinc - On Friday, SHFE zinc index fell 0.06% to 21,678 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading was 259,300 lots [7]. - LME zinc 3S rose 8 dollars to 2,625 dollars/ton, and the total position was 206,400 lots [7]. - SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,030 yuan/ton, and the basis in different regions varied [7]. - SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 8,700 tons, and domestic social inventory slightly increased to 79,600 tons [7]. - LME zinc ingot inventory was 127,500 tons, and the cancelled warrant was 33,500 tons [7]. - The zinc industry is in the process of converting surplus zinc ore into zinc ingots, but the increase in social inventory is not obvious [7]. Tin - Last week, tin prices fluctuated. The supply of tin ore in Myanmar was tight, and domestic tin ore imports in June were expected to decrease by 500 - 1,000 tons [8]. - The raw material inventory of smelters in main production areas was generally less than 30 days, and some enterprises carried out maintenance or production cuts [8]. - Terminal enterprises entered the seasonal off - season, and orders for consumer electronics, automotive electronics, and photovoltaic declined [8]. - After tin prices rose to around 260,000 yuan/ton, downstream procurement willingness weakened [9]. - As of June 20, the social inventory of tin ingots in major markets decreased by 42 tons to 8,905 tons [9]. Nickel - Last week, nickel prices were weak. The monthly output of refined nickel remained high [10]. - Spot demand was weak, and market trading was light [10]. - The visible inventory of domestic + LME increased by 6,165 tons to 241,000 tons [10]. - The supply of nickel ore was tight in the short - term due to the rainy season, but it was expected to ease after the rainy season [10]. - The price of nickel iron was weak in June, and some production lines switched to producing nickel matte [10]. Lithium Carbonate - On Friday, the MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 59,777 yuan, down 0.31% from the previous trading day and 1.09% for the week [12]. - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 200 yuan, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.17% [12]. - The LC2509 contract closed at 58,900 yuan, down 1.93% from the previous day and 1.51% for the week [12]. - The supply clearance was slow, and domestic lithium salt production returned to a high level [12]. - Downstream entered the traditional mid - year off - season, and the marginal increase in demand declined [12]. Alumina - On June 20, 2025, the alumina index fell 0.31% to 2,883 yuan/ton, and the total position of unilateral trading decreased by 12,000 lots to 435,000 lots [14]. - Spot prices in some regions decreased, and the Shandong spot price was at a premium to the 07 contract [15]. - The MYSTEEL Australian FOB price remained at 367 dollars/ton, and the import window was closed [15]. - The futures warehouse receipt decreased by 6,300 tons to 42,900 tons [15]. - The price of bauxite in Guinea and Australia remained stable [15]. Stainless Steel - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,505 yuan/ton, down 0.56% for the day, and the unilateral position increased by 5,358 lots to 279,900 lots [17]. - Spot prices in some markets decreased, and the futures inventory decreased by 780 tons to 114,089 tons [17]. - Social inventory increased to 1,157,400 tons, with 300 - series inventory at 692,100 tons (up 0.89% month - on - month) [17]. - The inventory of Qing Shan resources was high, suppressing steel prices, and downstream users were in a wait - and - see state [17]. - The industry faced cost pressure, and steel mills, agents, and traders were in a loss - making state [17].
有色商品日报(2025 年 6 月 20 日)-20250620
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-20 06:33
有色商品日报 有色商品日报(2025 年 6 月 20 日) 一、研究观点 | 品 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | 隔夜 LME 铜震荡偏弱,下跌 0.32%至 9619.5 美元/吨;SHFE 铜主力下跌 0.27%至 | | | | 78280 元/吨;国内现货进口仍维系较大亏损。宏观方面,美联储在 6 月议息会议上维 | | | | 持利率不变后,特朗普再度喊话美联储要求其降息。关税谈判方面,欧盟正寻求与美 | | | | 国达成英国式贸易协议。中东局势仍是短期焦点,美方有意介入伊以冲突,特朗普已 | | | | 批准攻击计划但暂缓执行,各方也在呼吁伊以停止冲突,局势已在逐步升温。库存方 | | | 铜 | 面,LME 库存下降 4025 吨至 103325 吨;Comex 库存增加 1400 吨至 18.14 万吨; | | | | SMM 周四统计全国主流地区铜库存较周一下降 0.18 万吨至 14.59 万吨,较上周四上 | | | | 升 0.11 万吨。需求方面,淡季来临下,下游消费转弱。伊以冲突升温后铜价表现不 | | | | 佳,佐证投资者相比供给,更 ...
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250617
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 01:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - Overall, the prices of various non - ferrous metals are affected by multiple factors including geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. Each metal has its own unique price trend and influencing factors. The short - term price trends of different metals are diverse, with some expected to be range - bound, some to rise and then fall, and some to continue to weaken [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price Movement**: The price of copper rebounded. LME copper closed up 0.49% at $9,695 per ton, and the main contract of SHFE copper closed at 78,650 yuan per ton [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: LME inventory decreased by 7,150 tons to 107,325 tons. In China, social and bonded area inventories increased slightly, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 47,000 tons. The supply of spot goods was tight, and the holders still had the sentiment of holding up prices. The import loss of domestic copper spot decreased, and the premium of Yangshan copper increased. The substitution advantage of scrap copper slightly improved [1]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term. The support for copper prices is still strong due to low inventory, but the weakening demand will limit the upward space. The reference range for the main SHFE copper contract is 77,800 - 79,200 yuan per ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9,600 - 9,760 per ton [1]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: The price of aluminum declined first and then rebounded. LME aluminum closed up 0.56% at $2,517 per ton, and the main contract of SHFE aluminum closed at 20,385 yuan per ton [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The decline in domestic inventory narrowed. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons to 351,200 tons. The spot in the East China region was at a discount of 10 yuan per ton to the futures, and the discount narrowed. The downstream mainly purchased on demand [3]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to rise and then fall in the short term, and the pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness is expected to continue. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan per ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2,470 - 2,540 per ton [3]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The SHFE lead index closed up 0.22% at 16,977 yuan per ton, and LME lead 3S rose by $0.5 to $1,992 per ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Downstream battery enterprises had weak consumption, and the pick - up situation was poor. The operating rate of primary lead smelting reached a historical high of around 70%, and the finished product inventory of secondary lead remained at a high level of 29,000 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: The price of lead is expected to continue to weaken [4]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The SHFE zinc index closed up 0.18% at 21,639 yuan per ton, and LME zinc 3S rose by $22.5 to $2,632.5 per ton [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore remained in an oversupply situation, and the profit of zinc smelters increased again. Although the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased again, the overall domestic visible inventory stabilized, and there was still a large downward risk in the future [6]. - **Outlook**: There is a large downward risk in the future [6]. Tin - **Price Movement**: Tin prices oscillated. - **Supply and Demand**: The short - term supply of tin ore was in short supply, and some smelting enterprises carried out maintenance or stepped - up production cuts. Terminal demand entered the off - season, and the downstream purchasing willingness was significantly weakened after the tin price rose to around 260,000 yuan per ton [7][8]. - **Outlook**: The domestic tin price is expected to oscillate in the range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan per ton, and the LME tin price is expected to be in the range of $31,000 - 33,000 per ton [8]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: Nickel prices oscillated downward. - **Supply and Demand**: The shortage of nickel ore is expected to gradually ease, and the price of nickel ore will be under pressure. The price of nickel iron was dragged down by the weak demand for stainless steel. The supply of intermediate products is expected to loosen, and the price of nickel sulfate may be under pressure. The supply - demand surplus pattern of refined nickel remains unchanged [10]. - **Outlook**: The nickel price may further decline after the spot demand weakens. It is not recommended to chase short positions, and it is advisable to wait for a rebound and sell at high prices. The reference range for the main SHFE nickel contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan per ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14,500 - 16,500 per ton [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate reported 60,187 yuan, down 0.41% from the previous trading day. The LC2509 contract closed at 59,780 yuan, down 0.03% from the previous closing price [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not improved substantially. Domestic supply shows strong resilience, and production in June increased month - on - month. The downstream entered the relative off - season [12]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to continue to accumulate inventory and oscillate weakly at the bottom in the short term. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2509 contract is 59,000 - 60,800 yuan per ton [12]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index fell 0.04% to 2,846 yuan per ton [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The spot prices in various regions decreased. The import window opened. The futures inventory remained unchanged. The pattern of over - capacity in alumina remains difficult to change [14][15]. - **Outlook**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the second half of the year. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2,750 - 3,100 yuan per ton [15]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The main stainless - steel contract closed at 12,550 yuan per ton, unchanged from the previous day [17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market supply - demand contradiction is sharp, with high inventory and weak demand. The expectation of the US to impose tariffs on steel - made household appliances has increased, which has a negative impact on downstream exports [17]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to continue to oscillate weakly, and there is a possibility of further price decline [17].
有色商品日报(2025 年 6 月 13 日)-20250613
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-13 05:26
有色商品日报 有色商品日报(2025 年 6 月 13 日) 一、研究观点 镍 格暂时表现坚挺,国内镍铁成交价格有小幅反弹迹象,但大厂招标价格维持 940 元/镍 点。不锈钢方面来看,原料价格持稳,供应端国内及印尼方面均有减产,但全国主流市 场不锈钢 89 仓库口径社会总库存 114.55 万吨,周环比上升 2.07%,需求疲软压制,供 应调节供需平衡仍需时间。新能源方面,品种价格表现平稳,6 月需求排产难有大量新 增。一级镍方面,6 月供应环比延续下降,国内周度库存去化。综合来看,原料成本坚 挺为托底,一级镍去库,但向上受到下游需求制约,整体仍篇震荡运行,关注镍矿升水 和一级镍库存表现。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 EVERBRIGHT FUTURES 2 有色商品日报 | 仓减仓 手;现货方面,SMM 氧化铝价格回落至 3259 元/吨。铝锭现货升 | | 721 至 10141 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 水扩至 元/吨,对无锡 200 | 90 | 元/吨。佛山 | ...
20250611申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250611
| | 20250611申万期货有色金属基差日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 铜: 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | | 锌: 可能短期宽幅波动 | | | 摘要 | 铝: 短期内或以震荡为主。 | | | | 镍: 短期内或以震荡偏强。 | | | 品种 | 观点 | 策略方向 | | | 铜:夜盘铜价收涨。目前精矿加工费总体低位以及低铜价,考验冶炼产量。 | | | | 根据国家统计局数据来看,国内下游需求总体稳定向好,电力行业延续正增 | 可能短期宽 | | 铜 | 长;汽车产销正增长;家电产量增速趋缓;地产持续疲弱。多空因素交织, | 幅波动 | | | 铜价可能区间波动。关注美国关税进展,以及美元、铜冶炼和家电产量等因 | | | | 素变化。 | | | | 锌:夜盘锌价收涨。近期精矿加工费持续回升。由国家统计局数据来看,国 | | | 锌 | 内汽车产销正增长,基建稳定增长,家电产量增速趋缓,地产持续疲弱。市 | 可能短期宽 | | | 场预期今年精矿供应明显改善,冶炼供应可能恢复。短期锌价可能宽幅波 | 幅波动 | | | 动,关注美国关税进展,以及美元、锌冶炼和家电产 ...
永安期货有色早报-20250610
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 02:51
有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/10 铜 : 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/03 215 1019 105791 31404 -652.82 409.92 85.0 100.0 52.31 143850 74375 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 2025/06/06 75 974 107404 32278 -1323.74 19.48 41.0 65.0 69.84 132400 77800 2025/06/09 70 944 107404 34242 -1215.58 217.42 43.0 66.0 95.78 122400 67800 变化 -5 - ...
五矿期货早报有色金属-20250605
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 03:37
Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Core Views - The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, but the overseas trade situation remains volatile. The upward stimulus to US copper prices from the increase in US aluminum tariffs lacks long - term emotional support. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, but the marginal stability of processing fees and the widening of the refined - scrap spread have alleviated supply concerns. With weakening consumer resilience, the resistance to copper price increases has grown [1]. - The domestic commodity market sentiment has improved, leading to a rebound in aluminum prices. Low inventory levels support aluminum prices, but the increase in US aluminum tariffs has pressured demand expectations, and short - term aluminum prices may fluctuate weakly [3]. - The demand for lead ingots is weak, while primary lead production is rising. The开工 rate of secondary lead enterprises is declining, and if secondary lead production cuts lead to greater scrap price drops, it may deepen the downside space for lead prices [4]. - The processing fees for zinc concentrates are rising, and the expectation of zinc ore oversupply persists. With increasing zinc ingot production and weak terminal consumption, zinc prices face significant downward risks [6]. - The slow resumption of production in Myanmar and concerns about tin ore supply have led to a sharp rebound in tin prices. However, the supply release trend is inevitable, and with no significant increase in demand, the rebound space for tin prices is limited [7]. - Macro uncertainties are high for nickel. Although the short - term fundamentals have slightly improved, they remain bearish overall. It is recommended to short at high prices [8]. - The short - term fundamentals of lithium carbonate have not changed substantially, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the commodity market sentiment, changes in positions, and supply disruptions [10]. - The alumina market has continuous ore - end disturbances, but the over - capacity situation persists. It is recommended to short at high prices lightly, with the ore price being the core factor [13]. - The cost of stainless steel has strong support, but the market is in a supply - surplus situation, and trade - based price support is weak [15]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper closed up 0.11% at $9649/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 78140 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 77500 - 78600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9550 - 9700 dollars/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2500 to 141350 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 3.2 million tons [1]. - Premium: The domestic copper spot import loss widened to about 1000 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum closed up 0.67% at $2487/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20110 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 19900 - 20200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2450 - 2510 dollars/ton [3]. - Inventory: The three - location aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 1.1 million tons to 39.1 million tons, and the two - location aluminum rod inventory increased by 0.1 million tons to 8.0 million tons. SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 4.9 million tons [3]. - Premium: The spot premium in East China decreased to 100 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Price: SHFE lead index closed up 0.59% at 16665 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 19 to $1988.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory increased to 4.49 million tons, and SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 4.17 million tons [4]. - Premium: The refined - scrap spread was - 25 yuan/ton, and the lead ingot import loss was - 887.96 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Price: SHFE zinc index closed up 1.21% at 22331 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 49.5 to $2722.5/ton [6]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 7.74 million tons, and SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 0.14 million tons [6]. - Premium: The Shanghai basis was 510 yuan/ton, and the zinc ingot import loss was - 491.89 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - Price: Tin prices rebounded significantly. The expected operating range for domestic SHFE tin this week is 230000 - 260000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is 28000 - 31000 dollars/ton [7][8]. - Reason: Slow resumption of production in Myanmar and concerns about tin ore supply [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel prices fluctuated. The short - term expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. - Supply and demand: Refined nickel production is at a historical high, while stainless steel demand is weak, and downstream acceptance of high - priced nickel is limited [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC spot index was flat at 60537 yuan, and the LC2507 contract closed up 1.90% at 61080 yuan. The expected operating range for the LC2507 contract is 59700 - 62100 yuan/ton [10]. - Market: The short - term fundamentals have not changed substantially, and it is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 2.11% to 3055 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2800 - 3300 yuan/ton [12][13]. - Inventory: Futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.96 to 10.24 million tons [12]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices lightly, with the ore price as the core factor [13]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12720 yuan/ton, up 0.71%. The Foshan market's Delong 304 cold - rolled coil price was 12950 yuan/ton, and the Wuxi market's Hongwang 304 cold - rolled coil price was 13100 yuan/ton [15]. - Inventory: Futures inventory decreased by 5299 to 124391 tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.61% to 109.96 million tons [15]. - Market: The cost has strong support, but the market is in a supply - surplus situation, and trade - based price support is weak [15].
永安期货有色早报-20250530
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 09:46
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The copper price is expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan, with the monthly spread and premium slightly declining, which will have a positive impact on spot market consumption, and the subsequent inventory accumulation may be slow [1]. - The aluminum price is expected to rebound with inventory depletion, and the monthly positive spread can be held if the absolute price falls [1]. - For zinc, it is recommended to short at high prices and partially take profits on the domestic - foreign positive spread at an appropriate time [2]. - There are opportunities to shrink the nickel - stainless steel price ratio, which can continue to be monitored [3]. - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate in the short term as the fundamentals remain weak [3]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16,600 - 16,900 yuan next week, with a planned supply reduction in May [6]. - For tin, it is advisable to wait and see in the short term and look for high - short opportunities in the long term [8]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate at the bottom, anchored to the cash - flow cost of leading large factories in the long term [9]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to decline after oscillation in the short term and remain weak in the long - term due to capacity expansion [9]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Data**: The domestic market continued to accumulate inventory slightly this week. The monthly spread and spot premium decreased, and spot trading improved. The LME inventory decreased by 1,925 tons, and the cancelled warrants increased by 3,275 tons [1]. - **Supply - side**: The Kamo' a mine had some mining areas shut down due to an earthquake, which may affect this year's output. The Manyer smelter in Indonesia will resume production in early June, which may improve the shortage of electrolytic copper premiums in Southeast Asia but have a negative impact on domestic TC [1]. - **Demand - side**: Domestic electrolytic copper consumption showed resilience. The State Grid issued the second - batch of tenders this week, and cable consumption and orders are expected to be strong in the remaining time of the second quarter. However, consumption in some sectors showed signs of weakening [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: Supply increased slightly, and imports from January to April were large. The inventory is expected to decline gently from May to July. The aluminum price rebounded with inventory depletion [1]. - **Supply - side**: The supply increased slightly, and imports from January to April were large [1]. - **Demand - side**: The demand decline from May to June is not obvious. Aluminum product exports are maintained, and photovoltaic demand declined slightly. There is still a supply - demand gap [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: The zinc price oscillated this week. The domestic social inventory accumulation was slow, and the LME inventory decreased slightly [2]. - **Supply - side**: The domestic TC and imported TC remained unchanged this week, and smelting maintenance in May decreased slightly compared to the previous month [2]. - **Demand - side**: Domestic demand elasticity is limited, with weak orders in North China. Exports in East and South China can be maintained due to the easing of tariff sentiment. Overseas demand in Europe improved slightly [2]. Nickel - **Market Data**: The price of pure nickel decreased, and the overseas nickel plate inventory increased slightly [3]. - **Supply - side**: The production of pure nickel remained at a high level, and Russian nickel imports increased in April [3]. - **Demand - side**: The overall demand is weak, and the spot premium is maintained [3]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: The prices of various stainless - steel products remained stable, and the inventory in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly [3]. - **Supply - side**: The production increased seasonally in April, and steel mills may cut production passively in May [3]. - **Demand - side**: The demand is mainly for rigid needs [3]. Lead - **Market Data**: The lead price oscillated and declined this week. The LME inventory decreased by 2,500 tons [6]. - **Supply - side**: The scrap volume is weak year - on - year. Recycling merchants panicked to sell due to concerns about price changes after the holiday. Mid - stream recycled smelters have concentrated production capacity, but the supply of waste batteries is tight, and most operate at half - capacity. The concentrate production increased from March to April [6]. - **Demand - side**: Battery export orders decreased slightly, and the overall demand is weak. The consumption is in the off - season, and orders only meet rigid needs [6]. Tin - **Market Data**: The tin price oscillated narrowly this week. The LME inventory remained unchanged, and the cancelled warrants increased by 10 tons [8]. - **Supply - side**: The short - term resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State requires negotiation. The processing fee at the mine end is low, and the smelting profit is inverted. Some smelters in Jiangxi Province have cut production, and those in Yunnan Province are struggling to maintain production [8]. - **Demand - side**: The elasticity of solder demand is limited. The growth rate of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to decline significantly. After the large - scale restocking by downstream enterprises, there is a lack of consumption - side impetus for further inventory reduction [8]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: The market price remained low. The social inventory decreased slightly, but the overall inventory level is still high [9]. - **Supply - side**: Some large northern factories resumed production, and Sichuan Tongwei continued to increase production. The overall start - up rate increased slightly. The enthusiasm of small and medium - sized factories to start production decreased [9]. - **Demand - side**: The demand for silicone and polysilicon is in a downward trend. Enterprises mainly purchase for rigid needs [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: The price of lithium carbonate decreased and then rebounded. The inventory accumulation speed slowed down this week [9]. - **Supply - side**: The production lines of Tianqi and Yahua resumed, and small recycling factories cut production more severely. Some self - owned mines are at a loss, and high - position hedging is used for sales [9]. - **Demand - side**: The downstream demand is weak. The policies such as trade - in do not improve the demand as expected. The lithium ore price continues to decline, and the lithium price loses support [9].
有色金属日报-20250530
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-05-30 01:15
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern before the Dragon Boat Festival, with fundamental support weakened but still present [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors such as the decline of PV installation rush and the arrival of the off - season [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to have limited downside due to cost support but may show a weak and volatile trend in the medium - to - long - term due to supply surplus [3][5]. - Tin prices are expected to have increased price fluctuations, and attention should be paid to supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [6]. Summary by Metal Copper - As of May 29, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.1% to 78130 yuan/ton. Mine - end disruptions continue, and the supply shortage pressure is difficult to change. Consumption in May weakened compared to April but was better than the same period. Low - level inventory supports the premium. The price is expected to be volatile before the festival [1]. - Domestic spot copper prices fell slightly, and the overall trading was quiet [7]. - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 2696 tons to 32165 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1925 tons to 152375 tons [15]. Aluminum - As of May 29, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 0.25% to 20200 yuan/ton. The revocation of mining licenses in Guinea has escalated. Alumina and electrolytic aluminum production capacities are changing, and the downstream开工率 is weakening. The price is expected to be weak in the short - term [2]. - The spot market transaction was stable, but the overall trading was not active [8]. - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1723 tons to 51819 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2250 tons to 375075 tons [15]. Nickel - As of May 29, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract fell 0.63% to 120480 yuan/ton. The nickel ore market is tight, and the supply of refined nickel is in surplus. The downstream demand is average. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [3][5]. - The spot price of nickel decreased. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 nickel price was 120700 - 123000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121850 yuan/ton, down 1400 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 174 tons to 22170 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 720 tons to 200142 tons [15]. Tin - As of May 29, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract fell 1.48% to 257870 yuan/ton. Supply has recovered, and the price is volatile. The production and import of tin have changed, and the inventory is at a medium level. The price fluctuation is expected to increase [6]. - The spot price of tin decreased. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 tin price was 257400 - 260400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 258900 yuan/ton, down 5700 yuan from the previous day [13]. - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 76 tons to 7908 tons, and LME tin inventory remained unchanged at 2680 tons [15]. Other Metals Zinc - The spot zinc market price decreased, and the trading was light. The import of goods made the supply more abundant, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking was basically completed [10]. - SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts decreased by 99 tons to 1675 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 2075 tons to 141375 tons [15]. Lead - The spot lead price increased slightly. The ccmn Yangtze River comprehensive 1 lead price was 16660 - 16760 yuan/ton, with an average price of 16710 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts decreased by 246 tons to 37252 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2500 tons to 288550 tons [15].