Group 1 - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance on December 11, 2025, with lithium carbonate and Shanghai silver rising over 3% [1][6] - Pulp, vegetable oil, soybean meal, and European shipping contracts increased by more than 2%, while BR rubber, polysilicon, soybean, and tin rose over 1% [1][6] - In contrast, coking coal fell over 4%, with coking coke, caustic soda, and ethylene glycol dropping more than 2%, and fuel oil and PVC nearing a 2% decline [1][6] Group 2 - As of December 11, 2025, the output of 100 surveyed thermal coal mines was 12.187 million tons, a decrease of 0.5% week-on-week, while inventory increased by 1.4% to 3.253 million tons [4][8] - The output of 98 coking plants was 2.796 million tons, down 0.1% from the previous week, with inventory rising by 19.09% to 352,500 tons [4][8] - The raw coal output from 88 coking coal mines was 8.4282 million tons, a decrease of 1.24% week-on-week, while inventory increased by 1.8% to 1.9818 million tons [4][8]

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 5 日 星期五 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周四（12 月 4 日） A 股三大指数涨跌不一，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.06%，收报 3875.79 点；深 证成指涨 0.40%，收报 13006.72 点；创业板指涨 1.01%，收报 3067.48 点。沪深两市成交额仅有 15490 亿，较昨 日缩量 1210 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 4 日震荡整理。收盘 4546.57，环比上涨 15.52。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 4 日焦炭加权指数强势，收盘价 1704.6，环比上涨 33.6。 12 月 4 日，焦煤加权指数震荡趋强，收盘价 1143.8 元，环比上涨 21.0。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭:吨焦平均利润受上下游让利好转，开工略有回升，供给环比增加。上周铁水日均产量 234.68 万吨，环 比-1.6 万吨，铁水季节性下滑的后，刚需走弱，投机性需求随着煤价近期的补跌回落，上游焦化厂累库，港口 去库，下游累库，总库存基本持平。 客服产品系列•日评 焦煤：山西中硫主焦 1378，环比-3，蒙 ...

2025年12月4日，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。集运欧线涨超3%，国际铜涨近3%，沪铜、沪锡涨超 2%，焦炭、硅铁、纸浆、玉米涨超1%。跌幅方面，合成橡胶、烧碱跌近2%，沪银、玻璃、橡胶跌超 1%。 来源：新浪网 | 同号 | 合約名称 | 最新 | 现手 | 天前 | 票价 | 我看到 | 英重 | 天堂 | 成交量 | 爆跌 | 持公里 | 日或在 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 1 来运时线2602 | 1585.0 | 5 | 1584.3 | 1585.0 | 3.32% | 12 | 18 | 27304 | 51.0 | 34222 | -786 | | N | 国际网2501 4 | 25080 | 1 | 82070 | 06028 | 2.9696 | 2 | 1 | 12755 2360 | | 5113 | 315 | | 3 | PH2501 W | 08806 | 7 | 00970 | 088606 | 2.26% | 7 | 7 | 225 ...

客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 12 月 4 日 星期四 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周三（12 月 3 日） A 股三大指数集体回调，截止收盘，沪指跌 0.51%，收报 3878.00 点；深 证成指跌 0.78%，收报 12955.25 点；创业板指跌 1.12%，收报 3036.79 点。沪深两市成交额达到 16700 亿，较昨 日放量 765 亿。 沪深 300 指数 12 月 3 日持续回调。收盘 4531.05，环比下跌 23.29。（数据来源：东方财富网） 【焦炭 焦煤】12 月 3 日焦炭加权指数窄幅震荡，收盘价 1672.0，环比上涨 2.9。 12 月 3 日，焦煤加权指数区间整理，收盘价 1119.9 元，环比下跌 18.1。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：近期原料价格回调，焦化行业利润好转，部分企业出现小幅盈利，焦企开工积极性增加，开工率周环 比出现回升，焦炭供应有增长空间。上周钢厂高炉开工率周环比继续下降，淡季铁水难回高位。各环节焦炭库存 低位，产业链供需矛盾出现累积，但下游存在补库空间。 焦煤：主产区多数煤矿维持正常生产，但安全检查影响仍存，上周矿 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - On December 3, the manganese - silicon 2603 contract was reported at 5746, up 0.14%. The spot price of Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese was reported at 5520. The OECD estimated that the global economic growth in 2025 would be 3.2%, 2.9% in 2026, and 3.1% in 2027. Fundamentally, inventory rebounded rapidly, production at a high level continued to decline slightly, and inventory increased for 9 consecutive weeks. The port inventory of imported manganese ore at the raw material end increased by 87,000 tons, and the overall molten iron demand declined seasonally. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 310 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it was 410 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend was oscillatory [2]. - On December 3, the ferrosilicon 2603 contract was reported at 5446, down 0.11%. The spot price of Ningxia ferrosilicon was reported at 5200. The annual bond issuance of local governments exceeded 10 trillion yuan for the first time. In terms of supply and demand, market transactions were mainly for terminal rigid - demand replenishment, prices declined, and inventory continued to decrease this period. In terms of profit, the spot profit in Inner Mongolia was - 270 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia it was - 525 yuan/ton. Technically, the daily K - line was below the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, and the short - term trend was oscillatory [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - SM main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 5,722.00, down 2.00; SF main contract closing price (daily, yuan/ton): 5,448.00, down 18.00 [2]. - SM futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 627,726.00, down 31,053.00; SF futures contract open interest (daily, lots): 482,471.00, up 428.00 [2]. - Net position of the top 20 in manganese - silicon (daily, lots): - 26,664.00, down 2,048.00; Net position of the top 20 in ferrosilicon (daily, lots): - 20,914.00, up 1,086.00 [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 48.00, up 4.00; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread (daily, yuan/ton): 14.00, up 14.00 [2]. - SM warehouse receipts (daily, sheets): 15,851.00, unchanged; SF warehouse receipts (daily, sheets): 11,255.00, down 61.00 [2]. Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 (daily, yuan/ton): 5,520.00, unchanged; Inner Mongolia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B (daily, yuan/ton): 5,250.00, unchanged [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 (daily, yuan/ton): 5,520.00, unchanged; Qinghai ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B (daily, yuan/ton): 5,150.00, unchanged [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 (daily, yuan/ton): 5,550.00, unchanged; Ningxia ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B (daily, yuan/ton): 5,200.00, unchanged [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average (weekly, yuan/ton): 5,499.00, down 16.75; SF main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): - 248.00, up 18.00 [2]. - SM main contract basis (daily, yuan/ton): - 202.00, up 2.00 [2]. Upstream Situation - South African ore: Mn38 lumps: Tianjin Port (daily, yuan/ton - degree): 32.00, unchanged; Silica (98%, Northwest, daily, yuan/ton): 210.00, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke (daily, yuan/ton): 1,250.00, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium grade, Shenmu, daily, yuan/ton): 880.00, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory (weekly, 10,000 tons): 438.30, up 8.70 [2]. Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate (weekly, %): 38.09, down 1.04; Ferrosilicon enterprise operating rate (weekly, %): 33.41, down 0.40 [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply (weekly, tons): 194,775.00, down 2,135.00; Ferrosilicon supply (weekly, tons): 107,200.00, down 1,100.00 [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory (half - monthly, tons): 368,000.00, up 5,000.00; Ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory (half - monthly, tons): 71,830.00, down 1,220.00 [2]. - Manganese - silicon inventory days of national steel mills (monthly): 15.84, up 0.14; Ferrosilicon inventory days of national steel mills (monthly): 15.80, up 0.13 [2]. - Demand for manganese - silicon from five major steel types (weekly, tons): 121,727.00, up 320.00; Demand for ferrosilicon from five major steel types (weekly, tons): 19,660.00, up 117.00 [2]. Downstream Situation - Blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %): 81.07, down 1.10; Blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly, %): 87.96, down 0.60 [2]. - Crude steel output (monthly, 10,000 tons): 7,199.70, down 149.31 [2]. Industry News - As of December 2, the national local government bond issuance scale was about 10.1 trillion yuan [2]. - Six major state - owned banks, including ICBC, ABC, BOC, CCB, BCM, and PSBC, have stopped selling 5 - year large - denomination certificate of deposit products [2]. - The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development predicted in its "Trade and Development Report 2025" that the global economic growth in 2025 would slow down to 2.6%, lower than 2.9% in 2024 [2]. - The OECD estimated that the global economic growth in 2025 would be 3.2%, 2.9% in 2026, and 3.1% in 2027. It also estimated that China's economic growth in 2025 would be 5%, previously estimated at 4.9% [2].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - As of the close on November 27, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Platinum rose over 6%, Shanghai silver rose over 3%, eggs and Shanghai tin rose over 2%, and palm oil rose nearly 2%. Palladium, soybean meal, glass, peanuts, and industrial silicon rose over 1%. On the downside, lithium carbonate fell nearly 2%, and asphalt and short - fiber fell over 1%. CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) main contract fell 0.11%, SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) main contract fell 0.11%, CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) main contract fell 0.34%, and CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) main contract fell 0.08%. 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) main contract rose 0.01%, 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) main contract fell 0.01%, 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures (T) main contract fell 0.06%, and 30 - year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) main contract fell 0.01% [5][6] - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:19 on November 27, among domestic futures main contracts, Shanghai silver 2602 had an inflow of 3.12 billion yuan, Shanghai gold 2602 had an inflow of 2.146 billion yuan, and Shanghai tin 2601 had an inflow of 668 million yuan. On the other hand, rebar 2601 had an outflow of 578 million yuan, apple 2601 had an outflow of 528 million yuan, and coking coal 2601 had an outflow of 464 million yuan [6] 2. Commodity Analysis Copper - Copper opened high and moved low, showing a slightly stronger oscillation. US initial jobless claims decreased by 6,000 to 216,000 in the week ending November 22, lower than the expected 225,000. The Grasberg mine in Indonesia is expected to resume production in the second quarter of next year. The long - term contract negotiation for copper smelting is ongoing, with the rough smelting and refining fees remaining stable. Refined copper imports decreased month - on - month, but domestic copper supply is relatively abundant. The inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange copper has been accumulating, and there is no shortage of supply for now. The 770th document has not been implemented yet, and the operation of recycled copper rod enterprises is cautious. After the copper price dropped last week, downstream purchases increased. In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, down over 10% month - on - month and 3.3% year - on - year. Recently, the copper inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has declined after reaching a high, and the inventory pressure has eased but is still high year - on - year. With the increasing probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, the copper price has rebounded. If the positive factors do not materialize, the copper price may decline slightly [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and moved high, with a decline during the day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 93,300 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 90,850 yuan/ton, up 450 yuan/ton. As of October 2025, the lithium carbonate output was 89,300 tons, an increase of 5,790 tons from the previous month. As of November 26, the weekly operating rate was 75.34%, 16.04% higher year - on - year. The price of spodumene increased, and the supply of lithium from salt lakes is affected by the season. In October, the domestic output of energy - storage batteries was 54.3 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%. The expected production of lithium iron phosphate in November is 405,600 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, up 21.1% and 20% year - on - year. After being stimulated by industry news, the futures price rose and then fell. The sustainability of downstream energy - storage orders is questionable, and the price has been fluctuating weakly in the past two days. It is recommended to operate with caution [10] Crude Oil - On November 2, eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the October and November increase plans, and suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year. The OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30. This will increase the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter but relieve the pressure in the first quarter of next year. The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US refined oil inventories exceeded expectations, and the increase in US crude oil inventories also exceeded expectations due to increased net imports. The overall oil inventory has increased slightly. US crude oil production is near the historical high. However, the number of active US oil drilling platforms decreased by 12, increasing the expectation that low oil prices will limit US crude oil production growth. The sanctions imposed by the US and the West have not affected Russia's oil production. The Trump administration is trying to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine, and Zelensky said he will continue to negotiate the peace plan with the US. The risk premium of Russian crude oil has declined, but it is difficult to reach a peace agreement in the near term. The military confrontation between the US and Venezuela has intensified, raising concerns about supply disruptions in Venezuela and Libya. With the end of the consumption peak season, the decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and the unclear prospect of US interest rate cuts, the market is worried about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and the Middle East's exports are increasing. The crude oil market is in a supply - surplus pattern. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate at a low level [11][13] Asphalt - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 4.2 percentage points to 24.8% last week, lower than the same period last year. In November, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.228 million tons, a decrease of 454,000 tons (16.9%) month - on - month and 274,000 tons (11.0%) year - on - year. The operating rates of asphalt downstream industries showed mixed performance last week, with the road asphalt operating rate remaining flat at 34%, restricted by funds and weather. In the Northeast region, asphalt production increased, and sales volume increased significantly after price cuts. The national sales volume increased by 15.28% to 246,000 tons, at a slightly low level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries remained flat, near the lowest level in recent years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. A fire in Venezuela's Jose industrial area shut down a 200,000 - barrel - per - day distillation unit, and the discount of diluted asphalt has widened under the US military threat. Shandong Shengxing and other refineries will stably produce asphalt this week, and the asphalt operating rate will increase. With the decline in northern temperatures, road construction is coming to an end, and the demand will further weaken. The increase in southern projects is limited, and the overall demand is dull. The basis of Shandong asphalt has remained at a neutral level, and the market is cautious. It is expected that the asphalt futures price will fluctuate weakly [14] PP - The downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.29 percentage points to 53.57%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the main downstream woven products of PP remained flat at 44.24%, and the orders decreased slightly compared with the previous year. On November 27, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 83%, at a slightly low - to - neutral level. The production ratio of standard - grade drawn products remained at around 31%. The de - stocking of petrochemical enterprises slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - to - neutral level in the same period over the years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has decreased recently. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, the follow - up of orders such as woven products is limited, the price of BOPP film has declined, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales. With supply surplus and weakening cost support, it is expected that PP will fluctuate weakly [15][16] Plastic - On November 27, there were few changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of plastic enterprises remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 21, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.20 percentage points to 44.69%. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders, at a neutral level in the same period over the years. The raw material inventory of agricultural film has increased slightly again, and the orders of packaging film have increased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The de - stocking of petrochemical enterprises slowed down in November, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a slightly high - to - neutral level in the same period over the years. The sanctions on Russia have not affected its oil production, and the promotion of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in oil prices. The new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE and 700,000 tons per year of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was recently put into operation. The operating rate of plastic has decreased slightly. The agricultural film is at the end of the peak season, with stable orders but the peak season is not as good as expected. With the temperature drop, the demand in the north has begun to decrease, and the price of agricultural film has started to decline. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline. Downstream enterprises have low purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Traders are cautious about the future market and generally offer discounts to sell actively. With the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern and weakening cost support, it is expected that plastic will continue to fluctuate weakly in the near term [17] PVC - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region is stable. Currently, the operating rate of PVC increased by 0.32 percentage points to 78.83%, still at a relatively high level in the same period over the years. The downstream operating rate of PVC continued to decline slightly, still at a low level although higher than the past two years. India has terminated the BIS policy on PVC, alleviating the concern about China's PVC exports to India. The anti - dumping duty is also likely to be cancelled, and PVC exports increased last week through price cuts. However, the December quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China generally decreased by $30 - 60 per ton. The social inventory increased slightly last week and is still high, with great inventory pressure. From January to October 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further declined. The weekly sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The real estate market needs time to improve. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the operating rate of PVC is higher than in previous years. The new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year of Tianjin Bohua is operating at full capacity, and 300,000 tons per year of Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons per year of Jiaxing Jiahua are operating at low capacity after trial operation. There are no actual policies in the PVC industry yet, and most old devices have been upgraded through technological transformation. The elimination of old devices and the solution of over - capacity problems in the petrochemical industry are macro - policies that will affect the future market. The maintenance of production enterprises such as Henan Lianchuang is about to end, the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, the cancellation of India's BIS policy has limited impact, the December quotes of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China have decreased, and the decline in coking coal and other futures prices has dampened market sentiment. Recently, PVC has been fluctuating weakly [18][19] Coking Coal - Coking coal opened low and moved low, showing a weak performance during the day. In the spot market, the mainstream price in the Shanxi market (Jiexiu) was 1,380 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1,000 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. According to Mysteel statistics, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 86.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93%. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and the daily customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port may increase next week. However, there is still an expectation of production reduction and shutdown at the end of the year, and it is expected that the production will decrease month - on - month next month. The mine inventory has increased significantly. In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of steel mills and the molten iron output increased last week, with the daily molten iron output at 236,280 tons, a 0.25% month - on - month decrease, and the profit of steel mills continued to weaken. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to decline seasonally. The decline trend of coking coal has slowed down in the past two days. It is expected that the future fundamentals will show a pattern of weak supply and demand. The market situation also needs to pay attention to the winter storage situation at coal ports, and it will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [20] Urea - The futures price of urea opened high and moved high, showing an increase during the day. The market situation has improved slightly, with prices rising. After the low - price quotes rebounded, the order receiving is still good. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea from urea factories in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,580 to 1,610 yuan/ton, a rebound of about 10 yuan/ton, with the high - end quotes in Hebei. Fundamentally, the daily output is significantly higher than the same period over the years. Before the seasonal shutdown of gas - based devices, the daily output of upstream factory devices will remain at a high level. The current daily output data is about 6% higher than last year. The compound fertilizer factories are still operating. After the production of winter - storage fertilizers, the production load is gradually increasing. Although the pre - order situation has been poor recently, the pending orders are still sufficient. It is expected that the operating rate will continue to increase next week. The operating rate of compound fertilizer factories increased by 2.45 percentage points this period. Since the price increase recently, the downstream terminal purchasing speed has increased, and the purchasing enthusiasm has increased significantly. With the reserve demand, the inventory has been decreasing for several weeks, with a 5.1% week - on - week decline this week. Overall, both supply and demand are increasing. The urea price is fluctuating strongly at a low level, with both upward and downward price pressures. The futures price will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range. The current demand is mainly reserve - type demand, with limited sustainability. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream acceptance after the price increase [21][22]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on November 26, with lithium carbonate and polysilicon rising over 3% [1] - Peanut prices increased by more than 2%, while silver, apple, and glass also saw nearly 2% gains [1] - On the downside, the shipping index for Europe dropped over 6%, and both coking coal and coke fell by more than 2% [1]

【焦炭 焦煤】11 月 24 日焦炭加权指数震荡整理，收盘价 1675.5，环比上涨 1.0。 11 月 24 日，焦煤加权指数弱势依旧，收盘价 1129.6 元，环比下跌 14.9。 影响焦炭期货、焦煤期货价格的有关信息： 焦炭：现货提涨落地，焦煤价格出现回调，行业利润相较前期好转，高频数据显示焦企开工率周环比小幅回 升，焦炭供应环比增加。需求，钢厂高炉开工率周环比再降，终端需求逐步走弱，钢厂提产空间有限。 焦煤：主产区个别煤矿仍受到其他因素制约产量释放，其他煤矿维持正常生产，上游开工率小幅回升，国内 煤炭供应缓慢恢复。进口，蒙煤为完成年内出口任务通关放量。需求，焦企焦煤库存升至历年同期偏高位，采购 积极性有所下滑，钢厂铁水产量周环比再降，打压真实需求。（数据来源：东方财富网） 客服产品系列•日评 国新国证期货早报 2025 年 11 月 25 日 星期二 品种观点： 【股指期货】 周一（11 月 24 日）A 股三大指数集体小幅上涨，截止收盘，沪指涨 0.05%，收报 3836.77 点； 深证成指涨 0.37%，收报 12585.08 点；创业板指涨 0.31%，收报 2929.04 点。沪深两市成交额 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic stock index futures show resilience with volatility decreasing. After Q3 reports, A - shares are in repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are common, and it's recommended to wait and see. Consider a bull spread of put options in case of a deep daily decline [2]. - Treasury bond futures had a differentiated performance yesterday. With limited driving forces, the bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. A range - trading strategy is recommended [2]. - Gold prices are oscillating between $4000 - $4200 due to mixed US non - farm data and cautious Fed officials. A double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money gold options can be considered. Silver follows gold's fluctuations, and short - term observation or light - position trading is advised [2]. - The EC (European line) container shipping index futures are in short - term decline. It's recommended to close short positions [2]. - Steel prices are expected to stabilize with improved apparent demand. Iron ore is oscillating, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. For coking coal and coke, a bearish view is taken with specified price ranges [2]. - Copper prices are oscillating weakly as the probability of interest rate cuts decreases. For various non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are recommended according to their price trends [2]. - In the new energy and chemical sectors, prices of many products such as polysilicon and PTA are oscillating. Different trading strategies are proposed based on their supply - demand situations [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, prices of products like soybean meal, palm oil, and sugar are showing different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic stock index futures are in a state of repricing adjustment. Short - term fluctuations are normal, and it's recommended to wait and see. A bull spread of put options can be considered in case of a deep daily decline [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. A range - trading strategy is recommended [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is in the $4000 - $4200 range, and a double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money options can be used. Silver follows gold, and short - term observation or light - position trading is advised [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to stabilize with improved apparent demand [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is oscillating. A wait - and - see approach is recommended with a reference range of 750 - 810 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: A bearish view is taken with a price range of 1050 - 1200 [2]. - **Coke**: A bearish view is taken with a price range of 1550 - 1700 [2]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Copper prices are oscillating weakly. The main reference range is 85000 - 86500 [2]. - **Other Non - Ferrous Metals**: Different trading strategies are recommended for various non - ferrous metals according to their price trends [2]. Energy and Chemical - **New Energy and Chemical Products**: Prices of products like polysilicon, PTA, and short - fiber are oscillating, and corresponding trading strategies are proposed based on supply - demand [2]. - **Other Chemical Products**: For products like LLDPE, PP, and PVC, different trading strategies are recommended according to their price trends and supply - demand situations [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal**: Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to the support around 3000 [2]. - **Palm Oil**: Palm oil prices are continuing to decline, and the main contract may reach 8900 in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different trading strategies are recommended for products like sugar, cotton, and eggs according to their price trends [2].

Report Overview - The report provides a market analysis of various futures varieties on November 20, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coking coal, Zhengzhou sugar, rubber, live pigs, soybean meal, palm oil, Shanghai copper, logs, iron ore, asphalt, cotton, steel, alumina, and Shanghai aluminum [1][2][3] Stock Index Futures - On November 20, A-share market indices declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.40% to 3931.05, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.76% to 12980.82, and the ChiNext Index decreased 1.12% to 3042.34. The trading volume was 1708.2 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.7 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4564.95, down 23.34 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal Price Movement - On November 20, the coke weighted index closed at 1673.5, down 12.7, and the coking coal weighted index closed at 1140.6 yuan, down 38.0 [2][3] Market Analysis - Coke: After the fourth round of price increases, some coke enterprises are still in the red. The overall supply has decreased. Demand increased due to unexpected resumption of production in Hebei steel mills last week, but there is an expectation of seasonal decline in molten iron. The fifth round of price increases is temporarily on hold. - Coking coal: Supply has increased slightly but is limited by environmental protection and safety supervision. Although molten iron production rebounded unexpectedly last week, the profit rate of steel mills decreased. Downstream coking plants have higher inventory days than in previous years, and the mine auction failure rate is high [4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by sufficient supply and lower spot prices, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract fell on November 20. From January - October 2025, China imported 100 million tons of syrup and white sugar premix, a year - on - year decrease of 963600 tons [4] Rubber - On November 20, Shanghai rubber declined slightly during the day due to the weakening prospect of a December interest rate cut in the US, but rose at night due to speculation on the weather in Thailand's rubber - producing areas. In October 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million respectively, with month - on - month increases of 2.5% and 3% and year - on - year increases of 12.1% and 8.8% [4][6] Live Pigs - On November 20, the LH2601 contract closed at 11440 yuan/ton, down 1.04%. The market is in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Although the decrease in temperature boosts some consumption, the demand recovery is slow due to the late Spring Festival and the impact of substitutes [6] Soybean Meal International Market - On November 20, CBOT soybean futures closed lower. The US soybean export sales were at the lower end of the forecast range. As of November 13, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 71%, lower than 80% last year, and the estimated output is 1.767 billion tons [6] Domestic Market - On November 20, the M2601 contract closed at 3017 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is close to one million tons. China has purchased about one million tons of US soybeans [6] Palm Oil - On November 20, the palm oil futures P2601 contract closed at 8646, down 2.33%. From November 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 828680 tons, a 14.1% decrease from the same period last month [6] Shanghai Copper - On November 20, the Shanghai Copper 2601 contract closed at 86130 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The macro - environment has a hawkish stance on interest rates, and the supply of copper concentrates is tight, while demand from emerging industries provides support [6] Logs - On November 20, the log 2601 contract closed at 772, with an increase of 1121 lots in positions. In October, log imports decreased by 16.3% year - on - year [6][8] Iron Ore - On November 20, the iron ore 2601 contract closed at 788.5 yuan/ton, down 0.32%. The supply and demand situation has improved marginally, but the price is in a volatile trend due to limited growth space for molten iron production [8] Asphalt - On November 20, the asphalt 2601 contract closed at 3058 yuan/ton, up 0.33%. The supply is decreasing, and the inventory is being depleted, but the demand is limited by cold weather [8] Cotton - On November 20, the Zhengzhou Cotton main contract closed at 13500 yuan/ton at night, and the inventory increased by 17 lots. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton in Xinjiang was 6.1 - 6.3 yuan/kg [8] Steel - On November 20, rb2601 closed at 3050 yuan/ton, and hc2601 at 3267 yuan/ton. The steel market is in a multi - empty game situation, and the steel price is under short - term pressure due to the decline in raw material costs [8] Alumina - On November 20, the ao2601 contract closed at 2732 yuan/ton. The supply of bauxite is abundant, and the price is under pressure. The market trading volume is limited [8] Shanghai Aluminum - On November 20, the al2601 contract closed at 21570 yuan/ton. The metal market is in a volatile state. The supply of aluminum ingots is normal, and the social inventory is decreasing, while the demand shows a weakening trend [8]