投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2605 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA10 一线压力 | 假期累库显著，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 假期现货贸易停滞，价格持稳为主，且螺纹钢产业矛盾假期持续累积，库存大幅增加，建筑钢 厂生产平稳，螺纹钢周产量环比增 1.22 万吨，低位小幅回升，且库存水平偏高，供应压力未有缓 解，关注节后短流程钢厂复产情况。与此同时，假期因素扰动下螺纹需求表现偏弱，高频需求指标 位于近年来同期低位，且恢复存在时滞，需求弱势格局未变，继续拖累钢价，相对利好则是政策预 期或增强。总之，供稳需弱局面下假期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2026年2月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货16250，基差-65 中性 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净多，多增 偏多 6、预期：节后或高开，建议保持偏空思路 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、国内经济指标偏空 • 2、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退、国内经济增长不 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - **Rubber**: On Friday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of shrinking volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing slightly lower. The futures price closed 1.42% lower at 16,315 yuan/ton, and the premium of the 5 - 9 month spread widened to 120 yuan/ton. The rubber market has entered a stage of divergence between bulls and bears. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, trading between bulls and bears has become cautious. It is expected that the Shanghai rubber futures will maintain a volatile consolidation trend in the future [6]. - **Methanol**: On Friday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and closing significantly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,248 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,187 yuan/ton, closing 2.45% lower at 2,188 yuan/ton. The discount of the 5 - 9 month spread narrowed to 32 yuan/ton. Dominated by a weak supply - demand fundamental, trading between bulls and bears has become cautious, and methanol futures may maintain a weakly volatile trend [7]. - **Crude Oil**: On Friday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2604 showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, fluctuating weakly, and falling significantly. The futures price rose to a maximum of 475.7 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 454.4 yuan/barrel, closing 4.22% lower at 460.7 yuan/barrel. As the geopolitical risk in the Middle East cools down and the peak season for crude oil demand comes to an end, crude oil has gradually weakened. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of the external market during the Spring Festival holiday and the geopolitical risk situation in the Middle East [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of February 8, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 606,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 15,100 tons and a growth rate of 2.55%. The bonded area inventory was 99,000 tons, with a growth rate of 1.38%, and the general trade inventory was 507,800 tons, with a growth rate of 2.78%. The inbound rate of the sample bonded warehouses of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.58 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.15 percentage points. The inbound rate of general trade warehouses increased by 1.24 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.47 percentage points [9]. - As of February 13, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 56.40%, with a month - on - month decrease of 15.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.88 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 40.55%, with a month - on - month decrease of 19.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74 percentage points. During the Spring Festival, most tire enterprises stopped work, and the overall capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises will be at a low point for the year [9]. - In January 2026, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Compared with the previous month, they decreased by 25.7% and 28.3% respectively. The passenger car market declined, while the commercial vehicle market continued to improve. The China Logistics Prosperity Index (LPI) in January 2026 was 51.2%, slightly down 1.2 percentage points month - on - month but still in the expansion range above 50%. In January 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles, a significant increase of about 39% compared with the same period last year. It is expected that the wholesale sales of the heavy - truck industry in the first quarter of this year will increase slightly year - on - year [10]. Methanol - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 87.30%, with a week - on - week slight decrease of 0.68%, a month - on - month slight increase of 0.50%, and a significant increase of 6.11% compared with the same period last year. The average weekly methanol output in China reached 2.0568 million tons, with a week - on - week slight decrease of 4,300 tons, a month - on - month small increase of 21,400 tons, and a small increase of 80,600 tons compared with 1.9762 million tons in the same period last year [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the operating rates of domestic formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and MTBE all decreased slightly week - on - week. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 80.21%, with a week - on - week small increase of 1.21 percentage points and a month - on - month small increase of 1.62%. As of February 13, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 71 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week slight decline of 30 yuan/ton and a month - on - month significant recovery of 173 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of February 13, 2026, the methanol inventory at ports in East and South China was maintained at 942,700 tons, with a week - on - week small decrease of 18,700 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 101,800 tons, and a small increase of 43,600 tons compared with the same period last year. As of the week of February 12, 2026, the total domestic inland methanol inventory reached 340,300 tons, with a week - on - week small decrease of 28,100 tons, a month - on - month significant decrease of 110,600 tons, and a significant decrease of 159,800 tons compared with 500,100 tons in the same period last year [12]. Crude Oil - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the number of active US oil drilling rigs was 412, a small week - on - week increase of 1 and a decrease of 68 compared with the same period last year. The average daily US crude oil production was 13.713 million barrels, with a significant week - on - week increase of 498,000 barrels/day and a small year - on - year increase of 219,000 barrels/day, at a historical high [12]. - As of the week of February 6, 2026, the US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 428.8 million barrels, a significant week - on - week increase of 8.53 million barrels and a small increase of 969,000 barrels compared with the same period last year. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma reached 25.113 million barrels, a small week - on - week increase of 1.071 million barrels. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 415.212 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 1,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was maintained at 89.4%, a small week - on - week decrease of 1.1 percentage points, a small month - on - month decrease of 5.9 percentage points, and a small year - on - year increase of 4.4 percentage points [13]. - As of February 3, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 124,565 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 27,583 contracts and a significant increase of 51,751 contracts compared with the January average of 72,814 contracts, with a growth rate of 71.07%. As of February 3, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 244,306 contracts, a significant week - on - week increase of 26,344 contracts and a significant increase of 59,860 contracts compared with the January average of 184,446 contracts, with a growth rate of 32.45% [13]. 2. Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Rubber | 16,250 yuan/ton | - 150 yuan/ton | 16,315 yuan/ton | - 135 yuan/ton | - 65 yuan/ton | - 15 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,222 yuan/ton | - 8 yuan/ton | 2,188 yuan/ton | - 43 yuan/ton | + 34 yuan/ton | + 43 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 456.9 yuan/barrel | - 0.3 yuan/barrel | 460.7 yuan/barrel | - 16.1 yuan/barrel | - 3.9 yuan/barrel | + 15.7 yuan/barrel | [15] 3. Related Charts - The report provides various charts related to rubber (including rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, Shanghai Futures Exchange rubber futures inventory, etc.), methanol (including methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, domestic port inventory, etc.), and crude oil (including crude oil basis, Shanghai Futures Exchange crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, etc.) [16][29][44]

Report Investment Rating - Silicon ferroalloy: Weak and oscillating [1] - Manganese ferroalloy: Wide - range oscillating [1] Core Viewpoints - The report provides the latest price information and market news of silicon ferroalloy and manganese ferroalloy, including spot prices, futures prices, and price differences, as well as new production capacity ignition and supply changes in the industry [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Macro and Industry News - An additional production capacity of a silicon - manganese plant in Sunite Right Banner, Inner Mongolia was ignited on February 10, 2026, and it is expected to produce iron by the end of February. The first unit (launched at the end of December 2025) currently has a daily output of over 200 tons, and the daily output will reach over 400 tons after reaching full production [1] - Jupiter will not provide manganese ore supply and quotes to China in March 2026 and is expected to release April manganese ore offers after the Spring Festival [1] - On February 12, 2026, the starting price of Hongliulin lump coal at the raw material end of semi - coke was 690 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. The auction volume was 105,000 tons, an increase of 42,000 tons compared with the previous period. The average transaction price was 692.81 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86.95 yuan/ton compared with the previous average price [3] Price Information Spot Prices - On February 12, 2026, the price of 72 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5200 - 5300 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5250 - 5300 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton; the price of 75 silicon ferroalloy in Shaanxi was 5950 - 6000 yuan/ton, in Ningxia was 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton, in Qinghai was 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton, in Gansu was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton (+25). The FOB price of 72 silicon ferroalloy was 1070 - 1090 (+10) US dollars/ton, and that of 75 was 1120 - 1150 (+10) US dollars/ton [2][3] - The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese was 5600 - 5700 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5750 - 5850 yuan/ton [3] - The price of silicon ferroalloy FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the price of silicon - manganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5650 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore Mn44 block was 42.8 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 745 yuan/ton [2] Futures Prices - The closing price of silicon ferroalloy 2603 was 5538 yuan/ton, a decrease of 62 yuan compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 10,836 and an open interest of 23,069; the closing price of silicon ferroalloy 2605 was 5500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 76 yuan compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 130,697 and an open interest of 187,389 [2] - The closing price of manganese ferroalloy 2603 was 5762 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 14,737 and an open interest of 26,665; the closing price of manganese ferroalloy 2605 was 5800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 101,203 and an open interest of 378,385 [2] Price Differences - The basis of silicon ferroalloy (spot - 05 futures) was - 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 56 yuan compared with the previous day; the basis of manganese ferroalloy (spot - 05 futures) was - 150 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 yuan compared with the previous day [2] - The price difference between silicon ferroalloy 2603 and 2605 was 38 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan compared with the previous day; the price difference between manganese ferroalloy 2603 and 2605 was - 38 yuan/ton, unchanged compared with the previous day [2] - The price difference between manganese ferroalloy 2603 and silicon ferroalloy 2603 was 224 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan compared with the previous day; the price difference between manganese ferroalloy 2605 and silicon ferroalloy 2605 was 300 yuan/ton, an increase of 52 yuan compared with the previous day [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon ferroalloy is 0; the trend intensity of manganese ferroalloy is 0 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Industrial Silicon - Supply decreased last week with a 13.41% week - on - week reduction to 71,000 tons; demand also decreased by 20.00% week - on - week to 60,000 tons, remaining sluggish. - Polycrystalline silicon inventory is at a high level of 349,000 tons; organic silicon inventory is at a low level of 47,200 tons with a production profit of 2,570 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工率 of 64.02%, flat week - on - week and below the historical average. - Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level of 67,400 tons. - In Xinjiang, the production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 0.00% week - on - week to 9,769.7 yuan/ton, and the cost support is rising during the dry season. - On February 12th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passed silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, with a basis of 865 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures. - Social inventory increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 562,000 tons; sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week to 200,800 tons; main port inventory decreased by 1.44% week - on - week to 136,000 tons. - The MA20 is downward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20. - The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions. - It is expected that industrial silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 8,240 - 8,430 [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply remained flat last week, with a production of 20,100 tons. The scheduled production for February is expected to be 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - Demand is in a continuous decline. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all decreasing. - The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon materials is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,420 yuan/ton. - On February 12th, the price of N - type dense materials was 52,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 4,235 yuan/ton for the 05 contract, indicating a spot premium over the futures. - Weekly inventory is at a historical high of 349,000 tons, increasing by 2.34% week - on - week. - The MA20 is upward, and the 05 contract price closed below the MA20. - The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions. - It is expected that polycrystalline silicon 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 47,940 - 50,090 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Bullish factors: Rising cost support and manufacturers' plans for production cuts. - Bearish factors: Slow recovery of post - holiday demand and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation in the downstream polycrystalline silicon market. - Main logic: Capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment [11][12]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply is expected to continue to decrease, and demand is in a continuous recession. Cost support remains stable [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Positioning Data Industrial Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week's supply was 71,000 tons, with a 13.41% week - on - week decrease. - **Demand - side**: Last week's demand was 60,000 tons, with a 20.00% week - on - week decrease. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 1.44% week - on - week to 562,000 tons; sample enterprise inventory decreased by 2.52% week - on - week to 200,800 tons; main port inventory decreased by 1.44% week - on - week to 136,000 tons. - **Cost**: In Xinjiang, the production cost of sample oxygen - passed 553 silicon decreased by 0.00% week - on - week to 9,769.7 yuan/ton. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the basis of the 05 contract was 865 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - **Positioning**: The main position is net short, with a decrease in short positions [6]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week's production was 20,100 tons, remaining flat week - on - week. The scheduled production for February is 79,700 tons, a 20.93% decrease compared to the previous month. - **Demand - side**: The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is all decreasing. - **Inventory**: Weekly inventory is 349,000 tons, increasing by 2.34% week - on - week, at a historical high. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon materials is 40,830 yuan/ton, with a production profit of 11,420 yuan/ton. - **Basis**: On February 12th, the basis of the 05 contract was 4,235 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. - **Positioning**: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. 3.3 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts decreased slightly. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 1.27% to 8,930 yuan/ton. - Spot prices of various types of silicon remained stable, such as the price of non - oxygen - passed 553 silicon in East China at 9,200 yuan/ton. - Inventory data showed a mixed trend, with social inventory increasing and sample enterprise inventory and main port inventory decreasing [15]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts were relatively stable, with only a few showing small declines. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained stable. - Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74% to 12.9 GW, and weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% to 26.5 GW. - Weekly battery cell inventory increased by 1.53% to 9.31 GW. - Monthly component production decreased by 9.04% to 35.2 GW, domestic inventory decreased by 51.73% to 24.76 GW, and European inventory increased by 9.27% to 34.2 GW [17]. 3.4 Other Aspects - The report also includes various trend charts and data on industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, such as price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, cost trends, and downstream industry trends (including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polycrystalline silicon downstream industries) [19][22][25]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the doc 2. Core Viewpoints - Platinum was dragged down by the US stock market, and the precious metals sector including palladium showed signs of weakness [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 544.90 with a -1.13% decline; gold exchange platinum at 541.04 with a -0.80% decline; New York platinum main - continuous (previous day) at 2025.00 with a -5.28% decline; London spot platinum (previous day) at 1999.40 with a -6.99% decline. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 430.05 with a -2.06% decline; RMB spot palladium at 408.00 with a -0.97% decline; New York palladium main - continuous (previous day) at 1639.00 with a -5.27% decline; London spot palladium (previous day) at 1626.50 with a -4.88% decline [2] - **Trading Volume and Position**: For platinum, Guangdong platinum trading volume was 5,442 kg, a decrease of 1,389 kg from the previous day, and the position was 26,111 kg, a decrease of 201 kg. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 27,278 kg, an increase of 1,760 kg, and the position was 83,039 kg, a decrease of 365 kg. For palladium, Guangdong palladium trading volume was 3,134 kg, an increase of 162 kg, and the position was 9,103 kg, a decrease of 311 kg. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 17,278 kg, an increase of 6,177 kg, and the position was 34,677 kg, a decrease of 1,431 kg [2] - **ETF Position**: Platinum ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 3,268,123, a decrease of 424; palladium ETF position (ounces) (previous day) was 1,191,075, a decrease of 3,894 [2] - **Inventory**: Guangdong platinum inventory was 1 kg; NYMEX platinum inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 583,369 with no change. Guangdong palladium inventory was 1 kg; NYMEX palladium inventory (ounces) (previous day) was 186,863 with no change [2] - **Spread**: Various spreads for platinum and palladium showed different changes compared to the previous day, such as the PT9995 - PT2606 spread increased by 1.91, and the Guangdong platinum 2606 - 2610 spread decreased by 1.05 [2] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 96.91 with a 0.05% increase; the US dollar - RMB (CNY spot) was 6.91 with a 0.03% increase; the US dollar - offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 6.91 with no change; the US dollar - RMB (6M forward) was 6.82 with a -0.48% decrease [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US two warships collided near South America, and the cause is under investigation. The US Treasury Secretary agreed to let the Senate instead of the Justice Department investigate Powell to get the nomination of the new Fed Chairman approved. The White House submitted an emergency plan to avoid the shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security [4] - Trump said the US "must" reach an agreement with Iran, and Netanyahu said Trump might reach a good agreement with Iran. The US Department of Defense instructed a second aircraft - carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East. The US Treasury will further relax sanctions on Venezuela this week. The US initial jobless claims for the week ending February 7 were 227,000, higher than the expected 222,000. Russia proposed 7 - point economic cooperation suggestions to the US to seek Trump's support. Anthropic completed a $30 billion financing, and its valuation reached $380 billion [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity was 0, and palladium trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

1. Report's Industry Investment Ratings - **Short - term Oscillation**: Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Short - term Adjustment**: Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Short - term Consolidation**: Soybean Oil [1] - **Oscillation Adjustment**: Cotton [1] - **Pressured Operation**: Red Dates [1] - **Oscillation Weakly**: Live Pigs [1] 2. Report's Core Views - **Soybean Meal**: South American soybean issues persist. US soybeans maintain a strong trend, and domestic soybean meal continued to rise as bearish funds took risk - off positions before the Spring Festival. Be cautious about risks during the holiday and focus on multiple factors such as South American soybean production and US soybean planting area [1][4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: Import supply is expected to improve. USDA February report data is bullish, and rapeseed meal continued to rebound. Pay attention to rapeseed procurement and trade developments [1][7]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil export data is bearish. Affected by Indonesia's export, palm oil prices fell, but it's in a large - range market due to the off - season and Indian festival demand [1][9]. - **Soybean Oil**: International and domestic soybean and soybean oil markets lack clear drivers. The price is oscillating weakly. Focus on palm oil data and US biodiesel policy [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Supply has been alleviated, and it followed other oils to decline after the pre - holiday stocking. Pay attention to other oils and rapeseed import [1]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton market has stopped falling. Domestic raw material inventory is decreasing, but demand is weakening seasonally. In the long - term, there is a strong expectation [1][13]. - **Red Dates**: Pre - holiday sales are okay, but high inventory limits price increase. The market lacks bullish drivers after stocking. The price is under pressure, and be cautious about the rebound height [1][16]. - **Live Pigs**: In February, the supply - demand is strong. Early - month high - speed slaughtering suppresses prices. Some areas may have short - term rebounds, but the 03 contract is prone to fall, and far - month contracts lack upward momentum [1][19]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2790 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The national average spot price was 3167.71 yuan/ton, up 0.18% [3]. - **Market Situation**: South American soybean production and quality are affected. US soybean exports are expected to be good. Domestic bearish funds took risk - off positions before the Spring Festival [1][4]. 3.2 Rapeseed Meal - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2303 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The national average spot price was 2603.68 yuan/ton, up 0.86% [5]. - **Market Situation**: USDA February report adjusted relevant data bullishly. The resumption of Canadian rapeseed trade improves supply expectations [1][7]. 3.3 Palm Oil - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8782 yuan/ton, down 1.39%. The national average price was 8850 yuan/ton, down 0.78% [8]. - **Market Situation**: Malaysian palm oil exports in February are not optimistic. Affected by Indonesia's supply increase, prices fell, but the off - season and Indian demand support the large - range market [1][9]. 3.4 Cotton - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2605) closed at 14745 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 16069 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [10]. - **Market Situation**: The 2 - month USDA report is slightly bearish. Domestic raw material inventory is decreasing, and demand is seasonally weak. In the long - term, there is an upward expectation [1][13]. 3.5 Red Dates - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2605) closed at 8855 yuan/ton, down 0.45%. The spot prices in various regions are stable [14]. - **Market Situation**: Pre - holiday sales are okay, but high inventory limits price increase. The market lacks bullish drivers after stocking [1][16]. 3.6 Live Pigs - **Price Data**: The futures price of the main contract (lh2605) closed at 11540 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. The national average slaughter price was 11520 yuan/ton, up 0.26% [17]. - **Market Situation**: In February, the supply - demand is strong. Early - month high - speed slaughtering suppresses prices. The 03 contract is prone to fall, and far - month contracts lack upward momentum [1][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the short - term (within a week), the short - term view of coking coal 2605 is "oscillation", the short - term view of coke 2605 is also "oscillation"; for the medium - term (two weeks to one month), both coking coal 2605 and coke 2605 are in "oscillation"; for the intraday, coking coal 2605 is "strong", and coke 2605 is "oscillation with a slight upward trend". The reference view for both coking coal and coke is "oscillation" [1] - It is expected that the coking coal price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival, and the coke main contract will also maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal - Price and Change: The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port in the spot market is 1,230 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 2.50% [5] - Supply and Demand: As the Spring Festival approaches, more coal mines stop production for holidays, resulting in a short - term contraction of coking coal supply. However, downstream enterprises' coal inventories have been replenished to a sufficient level, and coal mine production will quickly resume after the Spring Festival. The long - term supply - demand situation is expected to be loose [5] - Market Outlook: In the context of a lack of long - term driving factors, it is expected that the coking coal price will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [5] - Potential Positive Factors: Uncertainties in the US - Iran geopolitical conflict during the Spring Festival; economic policy expectations around the Two Sessions after the Spring Festival; possible new "anti - involution" policies in the coal industry due to the continuous low - level operation of coal prices [5] 3.2 Coke - Price and Change: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1,520 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1,470 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.68% [6] - Supply and Demand: There has been no significant change in the coke fundamentals recently. Both supply and demand have increased slightly at a low level, and the futures lack unilateral momentum [6] - Market Outlook: It is expected that the coke main contract will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern before the Spring Festival [6] - Uncertainties: "US - Iran geopolitical risks", "Two Sessions policy expectations", and "anti - involution policy expectations" [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the methanol 2605 contract will show a weak - running trend, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak. The core logic is that although overseas supply "hard contraction" provides support, the approaching Spring Festival makes the market cautious, reducing risk preference and leading to a weak - oscillatory trend in methanol futures [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Time - cycle Viewpoints - **Short - term**: The short - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory [1]. - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of methanol 2605 is oscillatory [1]. - **Intraday**: The intraday view of methanol 2605 is weak, and it is expected to run weakly [1][5]. 3.2 Driving Logic - **Positive Factor**: Overseas supply "hard contraction" is the key factor supporting the upward movement of methanol prices. Iran, a major import source, is in the stage of winter natural gas supply guarantee and production restriction. Most methanol plants have reduced production or shut down, and the output is at a low level within the year. China's imports may decline significantly in January and February, resulting in tight external supply [5]. - **Negative Factor**: As the Spring Festival approaches, market trading becomes more cautious, risk preference decreases, causing the domestic methanol futures to show a weak - oscillatory trend on Thursday night, and it is expected to maintain this pattern on Friday [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber (RU) and synthetic rubber (BR) are expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weak [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][5]. - **Core Logic**: Before the Spring Festival, the supply of the domestic and foreign natural rubber markets tends to decline, while the operating load of domestic tire enterprises further decreases, showing weak demand. Social inventory pressure is difficult to relieve and will continue the inventory accumulation trend. The Shanghai rubber futures may continue the narrow - range oscillatory mode. Three key variables need attention: the recovery rhythm of the rubber - tapping peak season in Southeast Asia, the subsequent changes in EU trade policies, and the implementation effect of domestic automobile consumption stimulus policies. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, market trading becomes cautious, resulting in an oscillatory and weak trend in the night session on Thursday, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [5]. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday view is weak, with a reference view of running weakly [1][6]. - **Core Logic**: The demand side enters the typical pre - festival off - season. The downstream tire and rubber product enterprises have basically completed their stockpiling, with a rapid decline in the operating rate and a low purchasing willingness. The orders in the all - steel tire and semi - steel tire markets are weak, and the demand related to logistics and infrastructure has not recovered. Terminal consumption shows a seasonal contraction, and the market lacks rigid demand support. Due to the approaching Spring Festival, market trading becomes cautious, resulting in an oscillatory and weak trend in the domestic synthetic rubber futures on Thursday, and it is expected to maintain this trend on Friday [6].