金信期货日刊 本刊由金信期货研究院撰写 2025/09/26 GOLDTRUST FUTURES CO.，LTD 玻璃期货大涨：多重预期下的上涨行情 9月25日玻璃期货再次上涨，是政策预期、供需边际改善与板块联动共振的结果。 感谢您下载包图网平台上提供的PPT作品，为了您和包图网以及原创作者的利益，请勿复制、传播、销售，否则将承担法律责任！包图网将对作品进行维权，按照传播下载次数进行十倍的索取赔偿！ ibaotu.com 热点聚焦 9月24日，工业和信息化部、自然资源部、生态环境部、住房城乡建设部水利部、农业农村部关于印发《建 材行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》的通知，其中提到，严格水泥玻璃产能调控。严禁新增水泥熟 料、平板玻璃产能，新建改建项目须制定产能置换方案。严禁从非大气污染防治重点区域向大气污染防治 重点区域转移水泥熟料、平板玻璃产能。 9月25日，周内玻璃产销前低后高，下半周在消息面提振下，中下游采购订货积极，多地企业发布涨价通知， 产销率大幅提升，带动企业库存继续下降。 截止9月25日，全国浮法玻璃样本企业总库存5935.5万重箱，环比下降155.3万重箱或2.55%，创1月末以 来新 ...

| 甲醇日评20250925:关注低多机会 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 变化值 | 变化值 | 指标 | 2025/9/23 | 单位 | 2025/9/24 | (絶対值) | (相对值) | | | MA01 | 2351.00 | 2343.00 | 8.00 | 元/吨 | 0.34% | | | | | 元/吨 | MA05 | 2379.00 | 0.17% | 2375.00 | 4.00 | 甲醇期货价格 | (收盘价) | | | MA09 | 元/吨 | 2342.00 | 2337.00 | 5.00 | 0.21% | | | | | 2255.00 | 2235.00 | 20.00 | 0.89% | 太仓 | 元/呼 | | | | | 元/吨 | 山东 | 2340.00 | 2360.00 | -20.00 | -0.85% | | | | | 元/吨 | 广东 | 2260.00 | 2255.00 | 5.00 | 0.22% | 期现价格 | 甲醇 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-纯碱】 全国重质纯碱主流价1283元/吨，近期价格 较稳；纯碱周度产量74.57万吨，环比-2.02%；纯碱厂家总库存 175.56万吨，周下降2.33%；浮法玻璃开工率76.01%，周度持 平；全国浮法玻璃均价1170元/吨，环比上日持平；全国浮法玻 璃样本企业总库存6090.8万重箱，环比下降1.1%。评：浮法玻 璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，需求端偏弱，华东市场个别企业 近期有涨价计划，下游操作一般，刚需拿货仍是主流。国内纯 碱市场价格持稳震荡，下游需求表现一般，适量补库，低价成 交为主。预计纯碱01合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑1285一线， 建议观望或回调短线做多。 【短评-黄金】美国发布与欧盟正式敲定关税协议的文件， 确认自8月1日起，对欧盟汽车及零部件征收15%的关税。同时， 自9月1日起，欧盟药品、飞机及其零部件、仿制药及其原料， 以及部分金属和矿石等被列入关税豁免清单。评：近期地缘及 关税等风险持续加强，避险情绪利多黄金。美元指数再度上 涨，施压黄金。美联储独立性依然存在很多争议，降息预期利 多贵金属。黄金震荡偏多。 投资咨询中心 2025年09月25日 研究员 ...

2025年09月25日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 9 月 25 日 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 8 | 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 803. 5 | 1.0 | 0.12% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | ...

说明： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 9 月 25 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏弱 | 长线看强 | 短期多头了结意愿上升，中长线 上行趋势不变 | | 铜 | 2511 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 宏观宽松背景下，矿端扰动再起， 资金关注度快速上升 | 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：本周沪金增仓上行明显，周内主力期价上涨近 30 元/克，触及 860 元关口，对应纽约金 触及 3800 美元，伦敦金站上 3750 美元。昨日美元指数持续反弹，金价高位小幅回落，短期多头了结 意愿上升。中长线上行趋势未改，短线沪金可关注 5 日均线支撑，纽约金可关注 3800 美元关口压力。 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp as expected, the market quickly digested the expectation and turned to a volatile state. With the long - holiday approaching, the activity of the capital market decreased, and short - term style switching and partial pull - back retreats in the stock index market are expected. [2] - Without incremental negative news, the high - end range of the 10 - year Treasury yield is expected to be 1.8 - 1.83%. In the absence of strong positive factors, the short - term downward movement of the interest rate is limited, with resistance around 1.75%. [2] - Gold maintains high - level volatility, and its volatility may rise again, but there are large risks of fluctuations as derivative contracts expire at the end of the month. Silver has high upward elasticity driven by突发事件 but the sentiment fades quickly. [2] - The shipping index of container transportation (European line) shows a volatile trend. Steel prices continue to fluctuate, supported by steel exports. Iron ore prices are strong due to reduced shipments, increased molten iron production, and restocking demand. [2] - Coal prices at production areas are stable with a slight upward trend, and the futures prices of coking coal and coke are volatile. The second round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and some coke enterprises have started to propose price increases. [2] - Supply concerns in the copper market have increased due to disturbances at the Grasberg mine, leading to a rapid rise in copper prices. The cost of alumina provides support, and the inventory of aluminum ingots has started to decline. [2] - Geopolitical risks have increased the risk premium of crude oil, and EIA inventory drawdowns have strengthened short - term support for oil prices. The supply - demand pattern of urea remains loose, and the supply - demand outlook for PX is positive but affected by strong cost factors. [2] - New device commissioning expectations and a weak terminal market have put pressure on the upside of ethylene glycol. The market for agricultural products has entered a stage of stop - falling adjustment, and the supply of new cotton is increasing. [2] - The glass market has been strongly driven by news, and rubber prices are strongly volatile in the short term due to typhoon weather. The market sentiment of industrial silicon has improved, and the price of polysilicon has rebounded. [2] Summary by Categories Financial - **Stock Index**: After the Fed's interest - rate cut, the stock index shows a full - scale rebound with a hot tech sector. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2511 with an exercise price around 6600 when the index pulls back to collect premiums. [2] - **Treasury Bonds**: Tight capital and a strong stock market have suppressed the bond market. It is recommended to use range - trading strategies for single - side operations and participate in basis narrowing strategies for the TL contract. [2] - **Precious Metals**: Gold maintains high - level volatility, and it is recommended to buy on dips or use out - of - the - money call options. For silver above $41, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options. [2] Black - **Steel**: Steel exports support the black market valuation, and steel prices continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to short - sell the spread between January contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils, buy iron ore 2601 on dips (reference range: 780 - 850), and go long on coking coal 2601 (reference range: 1150 - 1300) and coke 2601 (reference range: 1650 - 1800). [2] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to supply concerns, copper prices have risen rapidly. It is recommended to hold long positions, with the main contract focusing on the support level of 81000 - 81500. [2] - **Aluminum and Its Alloys**: The cost of alumina provides support, the inventory of aluminum ingots has started to decline, and the pre - holiday restocking demand supports the price of aluminum alloys. [2] - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Zinc shows inventory drawdowns in the peak season, tin imports remain low in August, nickel shows a volatile upward trend, and stainless steel shows a slight upward movement. [2] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks and inventory drawdowns support oil prices. It is recommended to use single - side band - trading strategies, with WTI in the range of [60, 66], Brent in [64, 69], and SC in [471, 502]. [2] - **Other Chemicals**: For various chemicals such as urea, PX, and ethylene glycol, different trading strategies are recommended based on their supply - demand situations and price trends. [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products such as grains, oils, sugar, cotton, and eggs have different price trends and corresponding trading suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals. [2] Special and New Energy Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by news and weather respectively, and industrial silicon and polysilicon have price rebounds due to improved market sentiment. The price of lithium carbonate is affected by news and shows a weakening trend in a tight - balance fundamental situation. [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the natural rubber industry [1][4][6] 2. Core View - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, and domestic inventories are starting to decrease. The tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The fundamentals of natural rubber are neutral, with increasing supply, strong spot prices, decreasing domestic inventories, and high tire operating rates. The basis is -820, which is bearish. The inventory shows a mixed trend, the market is below the 20 - day line, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, and the expectation is to buy on dips [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Supply is increasing [4][6] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) rose on September 24th, and the US dollar quote in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is available. The spot price is resistant to decline [8][6] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has recently decreased, and the Qingdao area inventory has decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year. The inventory in Qingdao area has changed slightly recently [14][17][4] - **Downstream Consumption**: Downstream consumption is high, with seasonal rebounds in automobile production and sales and a record high in tire production. Tire industry exports are also rebounding [23][26][29] 3.3 Basis - The basis strengthened on September 24th, with the spot price at 14800 and the basis at - 820, which is bearish [4][35] 3.4 Multi - empty Factors - **Likely to Rise**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Likely to Fall**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

黄金越是上涨，越是果断做空的人，收获才会越大，9月剩下的交易日，我会坚持去反弹做空，暴跌往 往在不经意间出现。首先，你心里要有这个预期，才好去逐步完成布局。 黄金实时行情分析：昨日黄金价格触及3791转跌，周三早盘低点来到3750一线，涨跌幅度都挺大的，时 间慢慢临近月末，我个人还是偏向空头洗盘行情出现，这次的回撤将高点3791当作阶段性顶部，今日价 格只要没能突破新高就大胆做空。向上的偏差阻力节点参考3800-3810范围即可，本周交易时间进入下 半周，本周初连续两天上涨，那么下半周看跌对待。 技术面来看，1小时周期很有意思，布林带上轨承压3791，下轨支撑3750，趋势线压力点位于3782一 线，这是常规的震荡范围，如若向下破位3750则有望考验1小时平行通道下轨3705，若金价向上破位 3791则有望考验1小时通道上轨3810压制点。对于行情没有人能做好一次不错，但昨夜的回撤已经让4小 时周期SAR指标出现在顶部向下发散，于我个人而言，我会选择反弹做空。 3、高位3799挂空，3810挂空，3820挂空，止损3830，目标3750-3700-3650+ 原油实时行情分析：原油价格开始走预期上涨，本周初连 ...

期货市场风云变幻，每一次价格跳动都暗藏机遇与挑战！无论你是紧盯原油、黄金的趋势交易者，还是 深耕农产品、金属的产业客户，这里都为你准备了： 实时行情解读：聚焦持仓变化、资金流向，透视 多空博弈本质 策略干货分享：从技术面突破信号到基本面供需拐点，拆解核心交易逻辑 风险预警提 示：提前研判地缘政策、库存数据等潜在黑天鹅事件每日更新 玻璃2601合约： 基本面：9 月 24 日市场有关玻璃企业开会的传闻推动盘面情绪大幅走高，"号召行业涨价" 及 "反内卷" 相关的消息及推测，带动玻璃盘面午盘后大幅增仓拉涨，盘中涨幅一度超 6%，临近收盘多头减仓价格 回调。盘面大幅拉涨带动现货报价上调，部分区域个别企业报价上涨高达 100 元 / 吨。 技术面：昨天精准布局玻璃1180布局多单，经过下午拉升后玻璃短线或将调整，但是趋势已成看后续延 续上涨 操作建议：下方支撑1180下方可以尝试性做多 基本面：钢铁行业产能管控和环保限产政策持续影响市场供应，国家持续推进 "双碳" 目标，对钢铁行 业生产形成一定约束。五部门发文推动钢铁行业稳增长，对市场情绪有一定提振作用。此前云南省主要 钢企负责人召开座谈会，试图通过区域协同打破 " ...

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